002_daf isi lap fs pltm wabudori
DESCRIPTION
BAIKTRANSCRIPT
iiii
Enjiniring Desain dan Studi Kelayakan dan Penyiapan Dokumen Lelang EPC PLTM Wabudori
Studi Kelayakan
DDaftaraftar I Isisi
Kata Pengantar..................................................................................................................................... iDaftar Isi............................................................................................................................................... iiDaftar Tabel.......................................................................................................................................... ivDaftar Gambar...................................................................................................................................... vRingkasan PLTM Wabudori (2 x 1500 kW)..............................................................................................vi
1. Lingkup Kerja dan Metodologi................................................................................................1-11.1. Dasar Pelaksanaan Pekerjaan..........................................................................................1-11.2. Tujuan..............................................................................................................................1-11.3. Metodologi......................................................................................................................1-2
1.3.1. Review Industri Listrik........................................................................................1-21.3.2. Analisa Rencana Usaha......................................................................................1-21.3.3. Analisa Usaha.....................................................................................................1-21.3.4. Proyeksi Keuangan.............................................................................................1-21.3.5. Penyusunan Studi Kelayakan.............................................................................1-3
2. Industri Listrik........................................................................................................................ 2-12.1. Pendahuluan....................................................................................................................2-12.2. Kondisi Kelistrikan Papua.................................................................................................2-2
2.2.1. Perkembangan Daya Terpasang Pembangkit Tenaga Listrik di Papua................2-22.2.2. Perkembangan Sarana Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik di Papua..............................2-42.2.3. Perkembangan Sistem Transmisi/Distribusi Tenaga Listrik di Papua.................2-42.2.4. Perkembangan Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik.........................................................2-82.2.5. Perkembangan Jumlah Konsumen dan Konsumsi Listrik....................................2-10
2.3. Perkembangan Pasokan dan Permintaan Listrik Di Papua...............................................2-132.4. Proyeksi Supply dan Demand Listrik Di Papua.................................................................2-15
2.4.1. Proyeksi Tambahan Daya Pembangkit PLN........................................................2-152.4.2. Proyeksi Kebutuhan Beban Papua.....................................................................2-16
2.5. Kesimpulan......................................................................................................................2-17
3. Studi Hidrologi......................................................................................................................... 3-13.1 Topografi dan Geologi PLTM Wabudori.............................................................................3-1
3.1.1 Kondisi Topografi ................................................................................................3-13.1.2 Kondisi Geologi ...................................................................................................3-2
3.2 Potensi Hidrologi...............................................................................................................3-63.2.1 Kajian Hidrologi......................................................................................................3-63.2.2 Penentuan Debit Andalan.......................................................................................3-73.2.3 Perhitungan Debit Banjir........................................................................................3-11
3.3 Situasi Lokasi PLTM............................................................................................................3-13
4. Rencana Usaha........................................................................................................................ 4-14.1. Latar Belakang...................................................................................................................4-14.2. Perijinan............................................................................................................................4-24.3. Perjanjian Jual Beli Tenaga Listrik......................................................................................4-24.4. Lokasi Konstruksi...............................................................................................................4-3
4.4.1. Pemilihan Lokasi Konstruksi...................................................................................4-34.4.2. Kondisi Lokasi Pekerjaan........................................................................................4-34.4.3. Aksesibilitas dan Transportasi................................................................................4-64.4.4. Lay Out Power Plant...............................................................................................4-6
iiii
Enjiniring Desain dan Studi Kelayakan dan Penyiapan Dokumen Lelang EPC PLTM Wabudori
Studi Kelayakan
4.4.5. Skema Jalur Transmisi yang Direncanakan.............................................................4-84.4.6. Layout.....................................................................................................................4-8
4.5. Proses Produksi PLTM........................................................................................................4-84.6. Potensi Daya......................................................................................................................4-94.7. Desain Bangunan Sipil.......................................................................................................4-11
4.7.1. Bendung.................................................................................................................4-114.7.2. Intake.....................................................................................................................4-124.7.3. Sandtrap.................................................................................................................4-124.7.4. Waterway...............................................................................................................4-124.7.5. Forebay..................................................................................................................4-134.7.6. Penstock.................................................................................................................4-134.7.7. Power House (Rumah Pembangkit)........................................................................4-154.7.8. Tail Race.................................................................................................................4-15
4.8. Komponen Mekanikal dan Elektrikal.................................................................................4-164.8.1. Turbin.....................................................................................................................4-164.8.2. Generator dan Governor........................................................................................4-174.8.3. Transformer............................................................................................................4-18
4.9. Aktivitas Manajemen Proyek.............................................................................................4-184.9.1. Komponen Kegiatan...............................................................................................4-184.9.2. Jangka Waktu Pelaksanaan Proyek.........................................................................4-20
4.10. Biaya Investasi...................................................................................................................4-204.11. Resiko Usaha.....................................................................................................................4-224.12. Kesimpulan........................................................................................................................4-23
5. Asumsi dan Proyeksi Keuangan................................................................................................5-15.1. Asumsi Makro Ekonomi.....................................................................................................5-15.2. Asumsi Proyeksi Keuangan................................................................................................5-1
5.2.1. Produksi Listrik.......................................................................................................5-15.2.2. Penjualan................................................................................................................5-25.2.3. Harga Pokok Penjualan (HPP)/Cost of Goods Sold (COGS).....................................5-35.2.4. Biaya Operasional...................................................................................................5-45.2.5. Depresiasi dan Amortisasi......................................................................................5-45.2.6. Biaya dan Pendapatan Lainnya...............................................................................5-45.2.7. Asumsi Proyeksi Lainnya.........................................................................................5-5
5.3. Kebutuhan Fasilitas Kredit.................................................................................................5-55.4. Hasil Proyeksi Keuangan....................................................................................................5-55.5. Analisa Penilaian Investasi.................................................................................................5-6
5.5.1. Tingkat Diskonto.....................................................................................................5-65.5.2. Simple Payback Period...........................................................................................5-65.5.3. Net Present Value...................................................................................................5-75.5.4. Internal Rate of Return...........................................................................................5-75.5.5. Profitability Index...................................................................................................5-85.5.6. Ringkasan Hasil Penilaian Investasi.........................................................................5-8
5.6. Kesimpulan........................................................................................................................5-9
6. Kesimpulan dan Saran.............................................................................................................. 6-16.1. Kesimpulan........................................................................................................................6-16.2. Saran..................................................................................................................................6-2
Lampiran – Lampiran
iiii
Enjiniring Desain dan Studi Kelayakan dan Penyiapan Dokumen Lelang EPC PLTM Wabudori
Studi Kelayakan
DAFTAR TABELDAFTAR TABEL
Tabel 2-1 Perkembangan Daya Terpasang Pembangkit Tenaga Listrik di Papua tahun 2005-2009 (kVA) ..................................................................................................................................2-3
Tabel 2-2 Perkembangan Panjang Jaringan Tenaga Listrik PLN di Papua Tahun 2005-2009 (km)........2-4Tabel 2-3 Perkembangan Panjang Jaringan Tegangan Menengah Tenaga Listrik PLN di Papua Tahun
2005-2009 (km)....................................................................................................................2-5Tabel 2-4 Perkembangan Panjang Jaringan Tegangan Rendah Tenaga Listrik PLN di Papua Tahun
2005-2009 (km)....................................................................................................................2-6Tabel 2-5 Pembangunan SUTT 70 kV...................................................................................................2-8Tabel 2-6 Pengembangan GI................................................................................................................2-8Tabel 2-7 Perkembangan Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik PLN di Papua Tahun 2005-2009 (kWh)..............2-9Tabel 2-8 Perkembangan Jumlah Pelanggan Listrik Tahun 2005-2009 (orang)....................................2-10Tabel 2-9 Perkembangan Penjualan Energi Listrik Per Sektor Tahun 2009 (kWh)................................2-12Tabel 2-10 Perkembangan Penjualan Tenaga Listrik (kWh)...................................................................2-13Tabel 2-11 Perkembangan Total Produksi dan Total Penjualan Listrik di Papua (GWh).........................2-14Tabel 2-12 Pengembangan Pembangkit Tahun 2011-2019....................................................................2-15Tabel 2-13 Proyeksi Kebutuhan Beban Papua Tahun 2010 – 2019........................................................2-16
Tabel 3-1 Hasil Perhitungan Debit Andalan dengan Metoda Nreca.....................................................3-9Tabel 3-2 Generating Data Debit Sungai Wabudori.............................................................................3-10Tabel 3-3 Rekapitulasi Debit Banjir Rancangan ...................................................................................3-12Tabel 3-4 Debit Banjir Rancangan Metoda Snyder...............................................................................3-13
Tabel 4-1 Perhitungan Kapasitas Daya PLTM Wabudori......................................................................4-10Tabel 4-2 Spesifikasi Penstock PLTM Wabudori...................................................................................4-14Tabel 4-3 Spesifikasi Turbin PLTM Wabudori.......................................................................................4-16Tabel 4-4 Spesifikasi Generator PLTM Wabudori.................................................................................4-18Tabel 4-5 Jadwal Pelaksanaan Kegiatan pembangunan PLTM Wabudori.............................................4-20Tabel 4-6 Biaya Investasi Pembangunan PLTM Wabudori...................................................................4-21Tabel 4-7 Sumber Pembiayaan Proyek PLTM Wabudori, Papua..........................................................4-21
Tabel 5-1 Asumsi Kapasitas Produksi...................................................................................................5-2Tabel 5-2 Detail Kondisi Komponen Struktur.......................................................................................5-2Tabel 5-3 Proyeksi Laba Rugi................................................................................................................5-6Tabel 5-4 Proforma Neraca..................................................................................................................5-6Tabel 5-5 Proyeksi Arus Kas.................................................................................................................5-6Tabel 5-6 Perhitungan Simple Payback Period.....................................................................................5-7Tabel 5-7 Ringkasan Hasil Penilaian Investasi......................................................................................5-8
iiii
Enjiniring Desain dan Studi Kelayakan dan Penyiapan Dokumen Lelang EPC PLTM Wabudori
Studi Kelayakan
DAFTAR GAMBARDAFTAR GAMBAR
Gambar 2-1 Daerah Pelayanan Kelistrikan Wilayah Papua......................................................................2-2
Gambar 3-1 Peta Geologi Lembar Biak Papua..........................................................................................3-6Gambar 3-2 Peta Daerah Aliran Sungai (DAS) Sungai Wabudori..............................................................3-7Gambar 3-3 Sirkulasi Air...........................................................................................................................3-8Gambar 3-4 Bagan Alir Perhitungan Debit Metoda Nreca.......................................................................3-8Gambar 3-5 Fluktuasi Debit Andalan Metoda Nreca................................................................................3-10Gambar 3-6 Flow Duration Curve Debit Andalan Metoda Nreca.............................................................3-11Gambar 3-7 Situasi Sungai Wabudori berpotensi Dibangun PLTM...........................................................3-14
Gambar 4 - 1 Lokasi Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Minihydro (PLTM Wabudori 2 x 1,500 kW) ..................... 4-5Gambar 4 - 2 Site Plan Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Minihydro Wabudori ................................................... 4-7