pengantar scenario planning - · pdf file• versi alternatif skenario: komik, cerita...

PENGANTARSCENARIO PLANNING

daniel sparringa<[email protected]>

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Pengertian Scenario Planning (SP)

• Narasi atau cerita mengenai kemungkinan-kemungkinan tentang masa depan.

• Berisi uraian tentang apa yang mungkin terjadi, bukanapa yang harus terjadi.

• Bukan prediksi (prediction) atau ramalan (forecasting) tentang masa depan.

• Bukan sebuah rencana atau rekayasa.

• Merupakan deskripsi, bukan preskripsi tentang masa depan.

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Nama lainScenario Planning

• Scenario Building

• Scenario Development

• Scenario Thinking

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Sejarah Scenario Planning• Prinsip-prinsip awalnya dikembangkan di kalangan militer selama dan

setelah setelah PD II;

• Di dunia bisnis, Scenario Planning menjadi salah satu metode untuk “membaca” masa depan;

• Shell Oil Company adalah organisasi bisnis yang menjadikan Scenario Planning sebagai metode yang memiliki aspek ilmiah dan sekaligus seni;

• Ragam Pemanfaatan Scenario Planning saat ini mencakup hampir seluruh bidang, dari tema yang berhubungan dengan masa depan negara, keamanan nasional, lingkungan hidup, perdagangan, hingga Industri, pendidikan, terorisme dan sebagainya.

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Dua Pendekatan Scenario Planning

• Pendekatan Pakar, melibatkan sedikit orang/kalangan tertentu (<50 orang). Misalnya, ”Mont Fleur Scenario” (Afrika Selatan) disebut juga sebagai skenario pakar.

• Pendekatan Dialog, melibatkan banyak orang dari banyak latar belakang (>150 orang). Misalnya, Skenario Indonesia 2010, disebut juga sebagai dialog skenario.

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Tujuh Langkah Penyusunan SP

1. Menetapkan focal concern (FC).

2. Mengindentifikasi driving forces (DF).

3. Menganalisis hubungan antar-DF

4. Memilih DF yang paling berpengaruh.

5. Menyusun matriks skenario.

6. Menentukan ciri kunci tiap skenario.

7. Menyusun narasi skenario.Pus

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Menetapkan focal concern (FC)

• FC merupakan isu strategis yang menjadi perhatian utama; mencemaskan/menggelisahkan.

• Merupakan jangkar bagi pembicaraan mengenai skenario.

• Perlunya time-frame yang jelas

• AWAS!: FC berbeda menghasilkan skenario yang berbeda.

LANGKAH-1

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Beberapa contoh Focal Concern

• Masa depan Industri Garmen Indonesia 2025

• Masa depan ASEAN 2050

• Terorisme Internasional 2030

• Perguruan Tinggi Swasta di Indonesia 2020

• Partai Politik di Indonesia 2025

• Dunia Perminyakan 2050

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• DF adalah pendorong perubahan.

• Identifikasi DF dengan mendaftar sebanyak dan selengkap mungkin hal yang dipercaya dapat mempengaruhi FC.

• Rekonseptualisasi, rekategorisasi, recluster untuk hasilkan DF final.

• DF selalu dinyatakan dalam bentuk variabel.

LANGKAH-2

Mengindentifikasi driving forces (DF)

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Langkah-2: Mengidentifikasi DF

(Lanjutan)• DF yang kurang lengkap menghasilkan

skenario-skenario yang tidak cermat;• Check&recheck: should be comprehensive,

complete, thorough, and exhaustive;• Gunakan “the tip of ice-berg system of thinking,

“STEEP analysis”, “the three arenas”;• “Think the unthinkable”

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Menganalisis hubungan antar-DF

• Memetakan hubungan di antara DF yang satu dengan DF yang lain.

• Memetakan hubungan keseluruhan DF terhadap FC.

• Memberikan penjelasan tentang bagaimana jalinan hubungan itu mempengaruhi FC.

• Perspektif yang berbeda menghasilkan skema yang berbeda: No problem

LANGKAH-3

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Memilih dua DF paling strategisLakukan seleksi berdasar tiga kriteria:• Pilih DF yang memiliki hubungan langsung terhadap FC.

• Pilih DF yang memiliki pengaruh yang segera terhadap FC.

• Pilih DF yang paling kritis (importance and uncertain).• Tentukan dua: paling langsung, paling segera, paling

kritis.

LANGKAH-4

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Menyusun matriks skenario • Tentukan matriks yang terdiri atas sumbu ordinat dan aksis

yang dikembangkan dari dua DF terpilih.

• Tentukan kutub-kutub dari setiap DF terpilih.

• Contoh: DF kebijakan ekonomi: Pro-Kapitalisme–Pro-Sosialisme

Pro-Konglomerasi–Pro-UKMDF kebijakan politik:Pro-Centralization – Pro-Decentralization

Symmetric Decentralization – Asymmetric Decentralization

LANGKAH-5

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Contoh matriks skenario:

Pro-desentralisasi

SKENARIO 1

SKENARIO 2SKENARIO 3

SKENARIO 4

DF 1

DF 2

Pro-UKM

Pro-sentralisasi

Pro-konglomerasi

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Indonesian State Bureaucracy 2015Stronger

influence from political

institutions

Strongerorientation toward

Iibertarianapproach

Stronger orientation

toward social-democracy approach

Weaker Influence from

Political Institutions Pus

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Menentukan indikator kunci tiap skenario • Tentukan ciri-ciri pokok dari masing-masing

kutub.

• Tentukan implikasi dari bertemunya ciri-ciri yang melekat pada kutub yang relevan pada satu DF dan kutub yang relevan pada DF lainnya.

• Tentukan simbol atau frase yang asosiatif untuk masing-masing skenario.

LANGKAH-6

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Menyusun narasi skenario• Kembangkan sebuah narasi untuk setiap skenario berdasarkan

interaksi di antara ciri-ciri di masing-masing kutub.

• Setiap skenario berisi deskripsi elaboratif tentang implikasi bertemunya ciri-ciri pokok yang relevan.

• Gaya penulisan narasi amat beragam; dari yang menekankan proses hingga yang menekankan snapshot peristiwa; dari yang menekan aktor hingga hard-facts.

• Versi alternatif skenario: komik, cerita pendek, film, drama, dan karikatur.

LANGKAH-7

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TIPS menuliskan SKENARIO

• Penulisan skenario yang baik memerlukan imaginasi yang kuat atas teks dan konteks;

• Setiap skenario memiliki elemen konstitutif yang kontras terhadap skenario lainnya;

• Narasi skenario harus mampu menimbulkan minat dan hasrat yang kuat di kalangan aktor-aktor strategis dan publik yang lebih luas untuk terlibat dalam diskusi mengenai implikasi skenario terhadap “hidup mereka saat ini” dan “nasib kehidupan yang lebih luas di masa depan”

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Manfaat Scenario Planning (SP)

• SP membantu kita memahami masa depan secara lebih realistik karena menyertakan gambar serba-rupa dan serba-mungkin: “masa depan dengan sejumlah wajah”;

• SP menghindarkan kita dari kemendadakan, keterkejutan, dan keanehan;

• SP memberi manfaat pada para pengambil keputusan untuk menghindarkan the undesirable scenarios dan menciptakan kondisi yang memungkinkan bagi tercapainya the most desirable scenario melalui strategic planning.

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Cheers...

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The Future of IndonesiaA Scenario Approach:

Indonesia 2025


Part Two

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1. The development of political parties;2. The implementation of decentralisation;3. The amendment of constitution and or

laws regarding political system (UU Parpol, UU Pemilu, UU Susduk);

4. The development of Islam Politics;5. The growth of identity politics;

Shaping The FutureDriving Forces (1):

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6. Economic growth;7. The direction of National leadership;8. The commitment of political elites

toward a more meaningful democracy;9. Level of public participation;10. The development of discourse on

democracy;11. Globalisation.

Shaping The FutureDriving Forces (2):

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The development of civil society; The direction of national

leadership

Shaping The FutureThe three Most’s:

(the most direct, immediate, and critical)

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stronger nationalleadership

weaker national leadership

stronger civil society

weakercivil society

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the existence of shared-values; the increase of social trust; stronger social cohesion; the growing of social solidarity based on humanism; more balanced-partisipation; the growing of beliefs in social justice; stronger beliefs in social-political progress

Characteristics of each pole (1)

Stronger Civil Society

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sharp fragmentation of ideologies; growing of social distrust; widening of violent communal conflicts; the persistency of ethnic-religious sentiments; over-public participation; widening of perceived systemic injustice; stronger APES (apathy, pessimism, scepticsm);


Weaker Civil Society

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the existence of common platform, vision, and goals;

the integration of political elites; more generative (adaptive and responsive) towards

changes; More creative approach in making breakthrough; Stronger orientation towards “free and fair” market; stronger commitment to a more meaningful

democracy; Stronger believe in rational politics;


Stronger National Leadership

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rivalries on political platform, vision, and goals; lack of integration of political elites; more reactive towards events; “Free-floating” policies; stronger free market policies; More commitment toward a procedural democracy; political orientation towards “balanced-politics”

based on ethnic-religious affiliation;


Weaker National Leadership

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stronger national leadership



weakercivil society

sharp fragmentation of ideologies;

growing of social distrust; widening of violent

communal conflict; the persistency of ethnic-

religious sentiments; over-public participation; widening of perceived

systemic injustice; stronger APES (apathy,

pessimism, scepticsm);

the existence of common platform, vision, and goals;

the integration of political elites;

more generative (adaptive and responsive) towards changes;

creative in making breakthrough;

a more balanced economic policy between free and fair market;

stronger commitment to a more meaningful democracy;

believe in rational politics;

rivalries on political platform, vision, and goals;

lack of integration of political elites;

more reactive towards events;

floating approach and policy;

pro a stronger free market policy;

commitment toward a procedural democracy;

political orientation towards balanced-politics based on ethnic-religious politics;

the existence of shared-values;

the increase of social trust building;

stronger social cohesion;

the growing of social solidarity based on humanism;

more balanced-partisipation;

the growing of beliefs in social justice;

stronger beliefs in social-political progress

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stronger national leadership



weaker civil society

tanah airku Indonesia,negeri elok amat kucinta,

tanah tumpah darahku yang mulia,yang kupuja s’panjang masa

tanah airku aman dan makmur,negeri elok yang amat subur,

. . . .

maju tak gentar,membela yang benar,

maju tak gentar,hak k ita diserang,

maju serentak,mengusir penyerang,

. . .bergerak, bergerak,serentak, serantak,

majulah menerjang terjang. . . .

perjalanan ini,terasa sangat menyedihkan,

. . .banyak cerita,

yang mestinya kau saksikan,di tanah kering berbatuan,

. . .bapak ibunya telah lama mati,

ditelan bencana tanah ini,. . .

mungkin Tuhan telah mulai bosan. . . .

kulihat ibu pertiw i,sedang bersusah hati,air matanya berlinang,

. . .menangis dan berdoa

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Cop

yright: Sh

ell Interna

tiona

l BV

Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050

Towards A New Energy Future

Darwin SilalahiPresident Director and Country Chairman

Shell Indonesia

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2

Disclaimer statement

This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions andinvolve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates,forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentations, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for the Group’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserve estimates; (f) loss of market and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including potential litigation and regulatory effects arising from recategorisation of reserves; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance onforward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2007 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, December 2008. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation.

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3

Shell has strong historical links with Indonesia

•1884, discovery of oil at Telaga Tunggal 1 well in Pangkalan Brandan (N Sumatra) led to establishment of "Provisional Sumatra Petroleum Co“…

•…which in 1890 then converted into the Royal Dutch Petroleum Co - established in NL

•1907, Royal Dutch Petroleum merged with British based Shell Trading and became what is today known as Royal Dutch Shell plc

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Shell in the World –#1 in 2009 Fortune Global 500 Companies

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Why Scenarios? –Discontinuities are not that obvious

“Well informed people know it is impossible to transmit voice over waves and that were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value.”

Editorial in The Boston Post c.1865

“I think there is a market for about 5 computers.” Thomas J. Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943

“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.” Ken Olsen, President of DEC, 1977

“$10 per barrel [oil] might actually be too optimistic. We may be heading for $5.” Economist magazine, 1999

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World’s energy systems –Time of unprecedented change

199910 $/bbl

200330 $/bbl

2005 60 $/bbl

2008 100-140 $/bbl

Source Economist Magazine Pusdik

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What, When and How? –Scenarios explore alternative futures

Harvard Business Review ‘Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead’, Pierre Wack, (Sept–Oct 1985) pp. 73–89;Pusdik

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The energy system today sets the context for the future

34% 21% 25% 10% 6% 4%

27% 46% 27%

World population 6.6 bln; 50% in urban environment Source: Shell International BV; UN Population Division

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The fundamentals – By 2050…

9 billion people2.5 billion more than today

2 billion carsdouble the number today

4-5 times richerwith most extra wealth coming from developing countries

80 % of world’s population in urban areasup from 50% today

1 billion more consumers in Asia

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The global demand for energy is growing, both in the developed and developing world.

The World’s Energy Challenge –3 Hard Truths

More energy means more CO2 emitted at a time when climate change looms as a critical global issue.

Supplies of “easy oil” cannot keep up with the growth in energy demand.

“More Energy, Less CO2”

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Increasing population & prosperity of rapidly growing economies drive energy demand

Source United Nations Population Division, 2004 Revision; Shell International BV, Oxford Economics and Energy Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Countries © OECD/IEA 2006 Pus

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Heavy industry

Services

Residential

Agriculture & other industry

Transport

Non energy use (e.g. petrochemicals)

World energy demand is on track to double by 2050.

“Business as usual” energy consumption by sector

Source: Shell International BV and Energy Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Countries©OECD/IEA 2006

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Supply will struggle to keep pace…

“Easy” oil and gas may no longer keep up with demand after 2015

Coal use will increase but constrained by logistic limits

Nuclear growth constrained by politics, and recreation of 3 industries – uranium mining, EPC, waste management

Biofuels constrained by availability of arable land

Renewables – long lead time to scale up

…need all the energy we can get

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2007 2025 2050

North America EuropeLatin America Asia & OceaniaMiddle East & Africa

In “Business as usual” world, direct CO2from energy could rise dramatically

Unsustainable CO2 levels in atmosphere

28 Gt/yr

48

65

Source: Shell International BV

Science warns of a 450 ppm upper limit before major climate change events occur

Currently, CO2 concentration at 386ppm, rising at 2ppm (…or faster) a year

“Business as usual” could mean CO2 from energy reach 65Gt/yr in 2050…

…and by end of the century, global temperatures could be up to 6 ‘C above pre-industrial level

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Short Video

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A more reactive approach, first focusing on increasing energy supply and then facing the consequences later.

Difficult decisions are taken sooner, leading to a better balance of economic, human and environmental needs.

Two energy scenarios

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Scramble - Security of supply andfear of losing economic growth

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0

250

500

750

1000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

EJ per year

Oil GasCoal NuclearBiomass SolarWind Other Renewables

Total primary energy (EJ per year)

Scramble – Energy nationalism;Consequences for energy mix

Focus on national supply security,

supply access & self–reliance

Sequential, late & erratic responses to

hard truths

Energy price spikes, but no/ineffective

carbon pricing

Coal and Biofuels spotlighted

Focus on existing infrastructure

Patchwork of strong national standards

EVENTS OUTPACE ACTIONS

Flight to coal

Triple Impact

Rebound

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Blueprints – Energy security andsustainability

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20

0

250

500

750

1000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

EJ per year

Oil GasCoal NuclearBiomass SolarWind Other Renewables

Blueprints – Energy sustainability;Consequences for energy mix

Broad awareness of challenges at all

levels, not only national

Critical mass of parallel responses to hard truths, initiated by emergent coalitions

Carbon pricing established early

Efficiency & Electrification spotlighted

New infrastructure develops e.g. CCS

Coalescence of global standards

ACTIONS OUTPACE EVENTS

Patchwork Alignment

Intensity Reduction

Electrification

Total primary energy (EJ per year)Pus

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History -Traditional paths Revolutionary paths

1970-2005 1970-2050

0

100

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400

0 40 80 120

GDP per capita (PPP, '000 2000 USD)

GJ per capita (primary energy)

0

100

200

300

400

0 10 20 30 40

GDP per capita (PPP, '000 2000 USD)

GJ per capita (primary energy)

Blueprints - Transition is inevitable;a revolution in energy pathways

Source: Shell International BV, Oxford Economics and Energy Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Countries © OECD/IEA 2006

USA

S.Korea

Japan

EU15

India

China

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Blueprints - Efficiency and innovationin transport


0

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2000 2025 2050

Liquid fuels Electric transport

Passenger distance travelled (world)

ind e

x 2000 = 100

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Blueprints – CO2 capture and storage in power abates ~30% total emissions by 2050

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2000 2030 2050


giga

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Direct CO2 emissions from energy by sector

Power generation- CO2

captured & stored

Power generationNon-energy use

Residential

Transport

Services

Agriculture & other industry

Heavy Industry

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Implications for direct CO2 emissions from energy

Late reactions Early actions

Middle East & AfricaLatin America

Asia & Oceania - DevelopingAsia & Oceania - Developed

North AmericaEurope

giga

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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

giga

tonn

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2050

0

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20

30

40

50

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Source: Shell International BV and Energy Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Countries©OECD/IEA 2006 Pusdik

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World - Direct CO2 output from energy - ppmv pathways

0

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60

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070

GtC

O 2/ ye

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HistoryScrambleBlueprintsBlueprints no CCSCO 1000 ppmv pathCO 550 ppmv pathCO 450 ppmv path

2

2

2

Consequences for CO2 emissions:-Climate stresses remain in both scenarios

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Comparing the scenarios: energy mix

Scramble Blueprints


0

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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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Business as Usual

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Indonesia – dealing with implications of hard truths?

Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar Wind Other Renewables

Scramble Blueprints

Breakdown of total primary energy


Biomass includes traditional biomass such as wood, dung etc% Renewables in 2000 = 4% excl biomass, 32% incl biomassIn 2050 inll biomass SCR = 57%, BLU = 48%, excl. SCR 31%, BLU 37%

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What this means for Indonesia

Massive investment and new skill sets will be required

Acquire technology for ‘challenged’ resources

Step up efforts to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels

Grow the share of renewable energy

Make haste on boosting energy efficiency

Double-up on cutting CO2 emissions. Play a key role in regional and global debates (e.g. ASEAN, G20, UN) on energy and climate change

Address energy price caps and huge subsidies

Knock on effect on investment & efficiency, impede the push for renewable energy

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One preferred approach: Blueprints

In our view, the Blueprints approach offers the best hope for a sustainable future

The environmental, human and economic outcomes seen in Blueprints make for a more sustainable world

Realizing a Blueprints scenario will not be easy, but we are working towards it…

BLUEPRINTS

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In summary – what we have learned

The three hard truths are very hard

Transition is both inevitable and necessary

Technology plays a major role, but no silver bullets

Political and regulatory choices are pivotal

The next 5 years are critical

Tackling all three hard truths TOGETHER is essential for a sustainable future

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?

??

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