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  • Penerbit:

    Bank Indonesia Jl. MH Thamrin No.2, Jakarta Indonesia

    Kajian Stabilitas Keuangan (KSK) ini disusun sebagai bagian dari pelaksanaan kewenangan Bank Indonesia di bidang pengaturan dan pengawasan Makroprudensial sebagaimana tercantum pada Undang-undang No.21 Tahun 2011.

    KSK diterbitkan secara semesteran dengan tujuan untuk:

    Informasi dan Order:

    KSK ini terbit pada bulan September 2014 dan didasarkan pada data dan informasi per Juni 2014, kecuali

    Dokumen KSK lengkap dalam format pdf tersedia pada web site Bank Indonesia:

    Permintaan, komentar dan saran harap ditujukan kepada:

    Bank Indonesia Departemen Kebijakan Makroprudensial Jl.MH Thamrin No.2, Jakarta, Indonesia Email: BI-DKMP@bi.go.id

  • Kajian Stabilitas Keuangan ( No.23, September 2014)

    Departemen Kebijakan Makroprudensial

    Grup Asesmen dan Kebijakan Makroprudensial

  • ii

    “Menjaga Stabilitas Keuangan di Tengah Perlambatan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi”

  • iii

    .............................................................................................................................................................. iii

    ............................................................................................................................................................... vii

    ................................................................................................................................................... ix

    ........................................................................................................................................................ 3

    ....................................................................................................................... 9 ...................................................................... 9

    .................................................................................................. 12 .................................................................................... 14

    ............................................................................................................................. 15 (Financial Imbalances) ........................................................ 17

    .......................................................................................................................... 25 .................................................................................................................... 33

    .................................................................................. 37 ................................................................. 39

    .................................................................................................................................................... 45 ..................................................................................................................... 45

    .............................................................................. 57 ................................................................................. 61

    Shadow Banking ............................................................................................................... 65

    ................................................................................................................................ 71 ..................................................................................................................... 71

    ............................................................................................................................. 78 .............................................................................................. 87 ............................................................................................ 88

    .............................................................................................................................................. 93 ...................................................................................................................................................... 93

    ........................................................................................................................ 116 ........................................................... 120

    .......................... 122

    ............................................................................................................ 127 .......................................................................................................................... 127

    ............................................................................................... 129 ......................................................................................................................... 130

    .................................................................................... 132 .................................................................................................... 134

    .............................................................................................................................................................. 137 Banking Model of Bank Indonesia 139

    Countercyclicality ..................................................................................................... 149

    ................................................................................................................................................................. 157

  • iv

    1.1. Perkembangan Pasar Keuangan Global dan Regional 10 1.2. Rasio Siklus Keuangan Terhadap Siklus Bisnis .. 16 1.3. Puncak Siklus Keuangan dibandingkan Dengan Awal Periode Krisis/Tekanan ............................... 17 1.4. Beberapa Negara dengan Pertumbuhan

    ............................ 28 Tabel Boks 1.1.1. Concordance Index Variabel Penyusun Siklus Keuangan (Narrow Credit) .......................... 34 Tabel Boks 1.1.2. Concordance Index Variabel Penyusun Siklus Keuangan (Broad Credit) ........................... 34 Tabel Boks 1.1.3. Rasio Siklus Keuangan Terhadap Siklus Bisnis ....................................................... 35 Tabel Boks 1.1.4. Puncak Siklus keuangan Dibandingkan Ke Awal Periode Krisis/Tekanan .......................... 35

    2.1. Yield SBN 10 Tahun dan Kawasan (%) ............... 50 2.2. Yield SBN 10 Tahun dan Kawasan (%) 50 2.3. Heat Map ............... 53 2.4. Pembiayaan Perbankan dan Non-Bank ............ 57 2.5. Jumlah Bank Berdasarkan Sumber Pendanaan ....................................... 58 2.6. Volume Pendanaan Bank Berdasarkan

    .......................... 59 Tabel Boks 2.1.1. Pendanaan Melalui Pasar Modal Periode Pemilu ................................................ 62

    3.1. Tingkat Pengeluaran Penduduk tahun 2013 .... 72 3.2. Persentase Jumlah RT berdasarkan ebt Ser ice a o (DSR) .................................. 75 3.3. Persentase Jumlah RT berdasarkan Tabungan .. 77 3.4. Indikator Kinerja Keuangan Korporasi Komoditas Utama ............................................ 81 3.5. Indikator Kinerja Keuangan Korporasi Sektoral .. 81 3.6. Kredit Komoditas Utama Ekspor ..................... 84 3.7. Penyaluran Kredit Korporasi menurut Sektor Ekonomi ............................................... 84 3.8. Posisi Utang Luar Negeri (ULN) Swasta menurut Sektor Ekonomi ............................... 85 3.9. Posisi Utang Luar Negeri Swasta Berdasarkan Investasi Langsung Menurut Sektor Ekonomi .. 86

    ................................... 89 Tabel Boks 3.2.2. Korporasi Publik dan Non Publik yang Memiliki ULN .......................................... 89 Tabel Boks 3.2.3 Altman Z-score ................................. 90

    Tabel Boks 3.2.4 Hasil Simulasi Ketahanan Korporasi Terhadap Nilai Tukar ........................................ 90

    4.1. Perkembangan GWM ...................................... 95 4.2. Perkembangan LDR per Kelompok BUKU ........ 95 4.3. Pangsa DPK berdasarkan Pulau ....................... 96 4.4. Pertumbuhan DPK Berdasarkan BUKU (yoy) ... 97 4.5. Komposisi DPK Perbankan ............................... 97 4.6. Pertumbuhan Deposito per BUKU .................. 98 4.7. Pangsa Pasar Kredit di Indonesia (%) .............. 100 4.8. Pertumbuhan Kredit per BUKU (%yoy) ............ 101 4.9. NPL Gross Berdasarkan Spasial ....................... 103 4.10. Rasio NPL gross per BUKU ................................ 103 4.11. Perkembangan Suku Bunga DPK ..................... 105 4.12. Perkembangan Suku Bunga Kredit .................. 106 4.13. Net Eksposur Kewajiban Valas Perbankan ..... 107 4.14. Kepemilikan SBN oleh Perbankan ................... 108 4.15. Perkembangan Laba/Rugi Industri Perbankan (dalam Triliun Rp) ............................................ 108 4.16. Rincian Pos Pendapatan (dalam Trilliun Rp) ..... 109 4.17. Rincian Pos Biaya (dalam Trilliun Rp)................ 109 4.18. Rasio NIM Perbankan per BUKU (dalam %) ..... 110 4.19. Perkembangan CAR berdasarkan BUKU .......... 112 4.20. Izin usaha baru Asuransi tahun 2013 ............. 118

    ............................. 119 Tabel Boks 4.1.1. Uji Granger Causality .......................... 120 Tabel Boks 4.1.2. Hasil Regresi Risiko Kredit UMKM ........ 120

  • v

    ....................... 11 ................ 11

    ....................... 13 ......................... 13

    ............................................ 13 ................... 14