11

KARAKTERISTIK BISNIS PENGOLAHAN

2

Apa Yang dilakukan Refinery ??

Refinery

Crude Oil

Biaya Investasi

Produk Yang Lakudijual (usable)

EnergyFixedCosts

LossFuel Gas& Oil

Refinery (pengolahan) adalah proses pemisahan

bermacam-macam fraksi yang terdapat di dalam minyak bumi

dan mengkonversikannya menjadi poduk yang berguna

3

Siklus Pemanfaatan Minyak Bumi

Refinery

Crude Oil Terminal

Transport

Retail

AviationExploration &

Production

Marine

Product Shippin

g

Product Tankag

e

Distribution Terminal

4

Physical Supply Chain

Value Creation:

• Crude Slade / Product Yield

• Technology & Catalyst selection

• Severity of Operation

• Blending Optimization

• Energy &Loss Efficiency

• Cost Efficiency

K i l a n g

Retail DistributionProduct Distribution

Processing

Crude Supply

Crude Source

Inbound Logistic Outbound Logistic

5

Rantai Nilai Minyak Bumi

Fig. 4.3

Cost-Added

Production, Storage & Transport Costs & The Time Costs of Money

Raw

MaterialStock

Production

FinishedProduct

In-Transit

RegionalStock Customer

OrderCycle

Value-Added

Time Place & Form Utility

6

7

REFINERYMARGIN

REALISATION/BBL

CR-OIL COST/BBL

COST/BBL

VOLUME

YIELD/BBL

MARKET PRICE/BBL

PROC. COST/BBL

DESIGN CAPACITY

PAF

VOLUME LOSS UTILISATION

AVAILABILITYDAYS DOWN TIME

CALENDAR DAY

PRIMARY PROCESS

SECONDARY PROCESS

OPERATION

SUPPORTGA

UTILITIES

SECONDARY PROCESS

PRIMARY PROCESS

MARKET

VOLUME

CRUDE SLATE

UNIT SEVERITY

CRUDE SLATE

CRUDE ASSAY

VALUE DRIVER TREE BISNIS PENGOLAHAN (REFINERY)

8

MISI BISNIS KILANG

(REFINERY)

PROFIT MAKS = REVENUE MAKS – COST OPT

COST OPT = BIAYA BAHAN BAKU + PROCESS.

COST

REVENUE MAKS = VOLUME MAKS x PRICE HIGH

-

9

UPAYA-UPAYA MEMAKSIMALKAN REVENUE &

MEMINIMALKAN COST

2. COST OPT = BIAYA BAHAN BAKU + PROCESSING COST

Memilih Berbagai Alternatif Bahan Baku Yang Memiliki Harga Relatif Murah, Impurities Yang Tidak Terlalu Membebani Processing Cost, Serta Yield Sesuai Design Kilang.

1. REVENUE MAKS = VOLUME MAKS x PRICE HIGH

Mengoptimalkan Utilisasi Unit Proses (Kilang), Menekan Loss Produk Dan Mempertahankan Yield Produk (Konversi) Tetap Tinggi Sehingga Volume Produk Menjadi Maksimal

Merencanakan Produk Yang Bernilai Ekonomis Tinggi (Valuable Produk).

10

Komponen Biaya Refinery

KILANG

Biaya Tetap

•Gaji

•Depresiasi

•Bunga

•PemeliharaanBiaya Bahan Baku

Bahan Baku

Bahan Pembantu•Katalis•Bahan Kimia

Produk Utama

Produk Samping

Nilai

Biaya Utilitas

•Bahan Bakar•Tenaga Listrik•Air•Udara•Nitrogen

•Crude•BBM•Non-BBM

11

Demand Crude Oil - asumsi tingkat pertumbuhan Low Growth Case (mb/d)

Opec Report 2006

12

Top 20 Oil Consumers, 2004

- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

TaiwanThailand

NetherlandsIndonesia

IranSpain

Saudi ArabiaUnited Kingdom

BrazilItaly

MexicoFrance

CanadaSouth Korea

IndiaRussian

GermanyJapanChina

USATotal Asia Pacific*

thousand barrels per day

* Included for Comparison.

No. 17, 1.4% of World's Total

Source: BP Statistics.

13

Top 20 Refiners, 2004

- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000

IndonesiaTaiwan

VenezuelaNetherlands

SingaporeSpain

MexicoIran

United KingdomBrazil

CanadaFrance

Saudi ArabiaItaly

GermanyIndia

South KoreaJapan

Russian FederationChina

USA

Thousand Barrels Daily

No. 21, 1.2% of World's Total

Source: BP Statistics.

14

15

Hal-hal Yang Mendasari Kenaikan harga Minyak Bumi

Supply - Demand China and global demand factor Supply constraint and the (changing) role of OPEC Refining capacity factor

Non - Fundamental Speculation factor Fear factor

Others

16

Supply & Trading

Supply &

Trading

Crude Purchases 5 mbpd

Crude Sales 4.5 mbpd

2.5 mbpd

Product Purchases 3 mbpd

3rd Party Product Sales 2.3 mbpd

Fuel & Loss: 0.2 mbpd

Refining2.5 mbpd

2.3 mbpd

Marketing Sales 3 mbpd

2 mbpd

Production

Supply &

Trading

17

Skema Kegiatan Ekspor / Impor

Crude Oil & Produk Refinery

18

Optimasi Refinery :

Dari sisi Internal :Operational AvailabilityHydrocarbon LossQuality Giveaway Innovation

Smarter Way of Doing ThingsCosts

Dari sisi eksternal :Selecting the Right CrudeProduct Optimization

19

Optimisasi Refinery (dari sisi eksternal)

1. Crude Selection Crude that maximises usage of the refinery

asset

Acid crude, High pour crude, Condensates, Lube/non-lube

Crude approval process

2. Product Management Better pricing of products, New product grades

Increased integration / supply

20

Price Differentials Against Dubai, Monthly Averages

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0Ju

l-0

2

Se

p-0

2

No

v-0

2

Jan

-03

Ma

r-0

3

Ma

y-0

3

Jul-0

3

Se

p-0

3

No

v-0

3

Jan

-04

Ma

r-0

4

Ma

y-0

4

Jul-0

4

Se

p-0

4

No

v-0

4

Jan

-05

Ma

r-0

5

Ma

y-0

5

Jul-0

5

Se

p-0

5

No

v-0

5

Jan

-06

Ma

r-0

6

Month

US

$/b

bl

Kero/JetGasoilGasolineNaphtha

21

Gross Refining Margins* : A Historical Perspective

(2)

2

6

10

81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

$/b

Cracking

Hydroskimming

* Dubai Crude (Singapore CIF); Product prices based on Singapore FOB spot prices.

22

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Hydroskimming Cracking

* Actual up to 2005 (nominal prices), 2005$ thereafter; Cracking yield is based on RCC.

Past and Projected Gross Refining Margins for Dubai, Singapore Market (US$/b)*

23

UP 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

UP -I 2.19 2.24 2.43 3.79 6.32 3.01

UP - II 2.51 1.50 2.99 6.62 6.07 3.12

UP - III 1.53 1.69 2.13 6.18 4.95 0.56

UP - IV 1.10 2.15 2.78 6.09 5.00 1.71

UP - V 0.68 1.40 2.37 5.44 5.68 0.53

UP - VI 3.98 4.04 5.50 13.48 18.14 13.02

UP - VII 1.04 (0.02) 0.90 3.32 2.60 3.00

Total Gross Margin 1.60 2.00 2.90 6.85 6.97 3.81

( US $/BBL Crude )

24

PRODUK & DEMAND BBM

Produksi BBM

Premium : 200.6 MBCD = 11.64 Jt KL

Kerosine : 166.5 MBCD = 9.66 Jt KL

Solar (ADO) : 266.2 MBCD = 15.45 Jt KL

Disel (IDO) : 9.3 MBCD = 0.54 Jt KL

Minyak Bakar (IFO) : 68.0 MBCD = 3.95 Jt KL

T O T A L : 710.6 MBCD = 41.24 Jt KL.

BBM Subsidi

Premium : 17.08 Jt KL

Kerosine : 10.00 Jt KL

Solar : 14.50 Jt KL

TOTAL : 41.58 Jt KL

Import BBM

19.64 Juta KL

BBM Non Subsidi

(Industri)

Premium : 0.037 Jt KL

Kerosine : 0.090 Jt KL

Solar : 13.919 Jt KL

Disel : 0.535 Jt KL

M. Bakar : 4.715 Jt KL

TOTAL : 19.30 Jt KL

DEMANDPRODUK DARI KILANG

Satuan : Jt KL

25

26

27

Refinery Pictures – Process Units

Crude Distillation

Vacuum Distillation

Catalytic Cracking

Hydrocracking

Catalytic Reforming