Intersep Slope699.09692982 3.0440925122

Tahun Bulan Harga Saham Trend MA 12 Bulan Siklus (MA/T) Musiman (A/MA) Bulan

2007

1 850.600 702.141 12 798.000 705.185 23 890.000 708.229 34 875.000 711.273 45 780.000 714.317 56 890.000 717.361 67 890.000 720.406 853.967 1.185 1.235 78 875.000 723.450 857.250 1.185 1.209 89 780.000 726.494 863.667 1.189 1.074 9

10 775.000 729.538 854.500 1.171 1.062 1011 850.000 732.582 855.750 1.168 1.160 1112 994.000 735.626 863.667 1.174 1.351 12

2008

13 890.000 738.670 854.500 1.157 1.20514 875.000 741.714 854.500 1.152 1.18015 780.000 744.758 854.500 1.147 1.04716 890.000 747.802 854.500 1.143 1.190 Perhitungan Indeks Siklus17 875.000 750.847 864.083 1.151 1.165 Bulan18 780.000 753.891 864.667 1.147 1.035 119 890.000 756.935 846.833 1.119 1.176 220 875.000 759.979 833.917 1.097 1.151 321 780.000 763.023 821.833 1.077 1.022 422 890.000 766.067 821.000 1.072 1.162 523 857.000 769.111 811.000 1.054 1.114 624 780.000 772.155 801.417 1.038 1.010 7

2009

25 735.000 775.199 796.417 1.027 0.948 826 730.000 778.243 786.417 1.011 0.938 927 770.000 781.287 779.167 0.997 0.986 10

2009

28 770.000 784.332 780.833 0.996 0.982 1129 760.000 787.376 771.667 0.980 0.965 1230 720.000 790.420 765.250 0.968 0.911 Rata-rata31 770.000 793.464 766.917 0.967 0.97032 788.000 796.508 769.000 0.965 0.98933 800.000 799.552 771.500 0.965 1.00134 780.000 802.596 769.833 0.959 0.97235 780.000 805.640 767.333 0.952 0.96836 800.000 808.684 767.333 0.949 0.989 Bulan

2010

37 760.000 811.728 768.167 0.946 0.936 138 760.000 814.772 759.833 0.933 0.933 239 750.000 817.817 754.167 0.922 0.917 340 740.000 820.861 742.500 0.905 0.901 441 760.000 823.905 739.167 0.897 0.922 542 730.000 826.949 729.167 0.882 0.883 643 670.000 829.993 716.667 0.863 0.807 744 720.000 833.037 705.000 0.846 0.864 845 660.000 836.081 695.833 0.832 0.789 946 740.000 839.125 707.500 0.843 0.882 1047 660.000 842.169 710.000 0.843 0.784 1148 650.000 845.213 711.667 0.842 0.769 12

2011

49 620.000 848.257 714.167 0.842 0.73150 650.000 851.302 720.000 0.846 0.76451 890.000 854.346 716.500 0.839 1.04252 770.000 857.390 729.833 0.851 0.89853 780.000 860.434 735.667 0.855 0.90754 760.000 863.478 746.500 0.865 0.88055 740.000 866.522 775.167 0.895 0.85456 678.000 869.566 791.833 0.911 0.78057 820.000 872.610 801.417 0.918 0.94058 810.000 875.654 790.583 0.903 0.92559 790.000 878.698 789.417 0.898 0.899

2011

60 994.000 881.742 785.917 0.891 1.127

2012

61 820.000 884.787 786.750 0.889 0.92762 765.000 887.831 787.583 0.887 0.86263 760.000 890.875 792.750 0.890 0.85364 756.000 893.919 783.583 0.877 0.84665 738.000 896.963 771.083 0.860 0.82366 770.000 900.007 767.333 0.853 0.85667 750.000 903.051 740.333 0.820 0.83168 740.000 906.095 740.333 0.817 0.81769 710.000 909.139 740.333 0.814 0.78170 660.000 912.183 740.333 0.812 0.72471 745.000 915.227 740.333 0.809 0.81472 670.000 918.272 740.333 0.806 0.730

2013

73 820.000 921.316 740.333 0.804 0.89074 765.000 924.360 740.333 0.801 0.82875 760.000 927.404 740.333 0.798 0.81976 756.000 930.448 740.333 0.796 0.81377 738.000 933.492 740.333 0.793 0.79178 770.000 936.536 740.333 0.791 0.82279 750.000 939.580 740.333 0.788 0.79880 740.000 942.624 740.333 0.785 0.78581 710.000 945.668 740.333 0.783 0.75182 660.000 948.713 740.333 0.780 0.69683 745.000 951.757 740.333 0.778 0.78384 670.000 954.801 740.333 0.775 0.702

2014

85 820.000 957.845 740.333 0.773 0.85686 765.000 960.889 740.333 0.770 0.79687 760.000 963.933 740.333 0.768 0.78888 756.000 966.977 740.333 0.766 0.78289 738.000 970.021 1333.667 1.375 0.76190 770.000 973.065 1333.667 1.371 0.79191 750.000 976.109 1333.667 1.366 0.768

2014

92 740.000 979.15393 710.000 982.19894 7780.000 985.24295 745.000 988.28696 670.000 991.330

Indeks Musiman2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Rata-RataIndeks Musiman

1.205 0.948 0.936 0.731 0.927 0.890 0.856 0.911 0.82286877261.180 0.938 0.933 0.764 0.862 0.828 0.796 0.871 0.78655088851.047 0.986 0.917 1.042 0.853 0.819 0.788 0.923 0.83363618441.190 0.982 0.901 0.898 0.846 0.813 0.782 0.888 0.80160006921.165 0.965 0.922 0.907 0.823 0.791 0.761 0.882 0.79582627931.035 0.911 0.883 0.880 0.856 0.822 0.791 0.870 0.7857178639

1.235 1.176 0.970 0.807 0.854 0.831 0.798 0.768 0.906 0.81796616831.209 1.151 0.989 0.864 0.780 0.817 0.785 0.921 0.83178715351.074 1.022 1.001 0.789 0.940 0.781 0.751 0.907 0.81845600121.062 1.162 0.972 0.882 0.925 0.724 0.696 0.913 0.82418329991.160 1.114 0.968 0.784 0.899 0.814 0.783 0.916 0.82682049041.351 1.010 0.989 0.769 1.127 0.730 0.702 0.925 0.8351627376

Jumlah Rata-rata 10.8336Faktor Penyesuaian 0.9028

Perhitungan Indeks Siklus2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Rendah Tinggi

1.157 1.027 0.946 0.842 0.889 0.804 0.904 0.902 1.1571.152 1.011 0.933 0.846 0.887 0.801 0.903 0.897 1.1521.147 0.997 0.922 0.839 0.890 0.798 0.897 0.891 1.1471.143 0.996 0.905 0.851 0.877 0.796 0.908 0.889 1.1431.151 0.980 0.897 0.855 0.860 0.793 0.923 0.885 1.1511.147 0.968 0.882 0.865 0.853 0.791 0.927 0.881 1.147

1.185 1.119 0.967 0.863 0.895 0.820 0.788 0.961 0.882 1.1521.185 1.097 0.965 0.846 0.911 0.817 0.785 0.865 1.1411.189 1.077 0.965 0.832 0.918 0.814 0.783 0.863 1.1331.171 1.072 0.959 0.843 0.903 0.812 0.780 0.859 1.121

1.168 1.054 0.952 0.843 0.898 0.809 0.778 0.856 1.1111.174 1.038 0.949 0.842 0.891 0.806 0.775 0.853 1.1061.179 1.116 0.976 0.878 0.876 0.844 0.789 0.913

Tinggi Tinggi Rendah Rendah Rendah Rendah Rendah Rendah

Hasil Perkiraan Tahun BerikutnyaSlope = 0 TrendRendah Tinggi Rendah Tinggi

518.897 665.472 710.949 911.774493.027 633.490 677.652 870.714519.010 668.668 715.625 921.977497.937 640.354 688.736 885.725492.145 640.266 682.868 888.391483.809 630.006 673.408 876.898504.499 658.804 704.404 919.850502.977 663.560 704.469 929.381493.537 648.249 693.395 910.758495.187 646.190 697.871 910.679494.869 642.360 699.577 908.079497.891 645.735 706.017 915.662