materi ii system dynamsistemics

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APLIKASI SYSTEM DYNAMICS DALAMPEMECAHAN PERMASALAHAN SOSIAL MASYARAKAT

UNIVERSITAS MUHAMMADIYAH YOGYAKARTA12 – 14 JANUARI 2012

SYSTEM DYNAMICS



system

dynm!"s?



#$!%$ Kn%&'ed(e

system dynm!"s



Sistem dinamik: Pemodelan dan simulasi komute!untuk memela"a!i dan men#elola sistem uman $alik%an# !umit &'omle( )eed$a'k s%stems*+ see!ti $isnis+sistem lin#kun#an+ sistem sosial+ ds$,

Sistem: – Kumulan elemen %an# salin# $e!inte!aksi+ $e!)un#si $e!sama

untuk tu"uan te!tentu, – -man $alik men"adi san#at entin#

Masala. dinamik – Men#andun# "umla. &kuantitas* %an# selalu $e!/a!iasi – 0a!iasi daat di"elaskan dalam .u$un#an se$a$ aki$at – Hu$un#an se$a$ aki$at daat te!"adi dalam sistem te!tutu

%an# men#andun# lin#ka!an uman $alik &)eed$a'k loos*

Apakah Sistem Dinamik itu?



Cy)e$net!"s &1iene!+ 2345*: studi %an#memela"a!i $a#aimana sistem $iolo#i+ !eka%asa+sosial+ dan ekonomi dikendalikan dan diatu!

Ind*st$!' Dynm!"s &6o!!este!+ 2372*:men#alikasikan !insi 8'%$e!neti's9 ke dalamsistem indust!i

System Dynm!"s: ka!%a 6o!!este! semakin

meluas meliuti sistem sosial dan ekonomi Den#an e!kem$an#an komute! %an# san#at'eat+ Sistem Dinamik men%ediakan ke!an#ka ke!"adalam men%elesaikan e!masala.an sistem sosialdan ekonomi

Sejarah



2, Identi)ikasi masala.

, Mem$an#un .iotesis dinamik %an# men"elaskan

.u$un#an se$a$ aki$at da!i masala. te!maksud;, Mem$uat st!uktu! dasa! #!a)ik se$a$ aki$at

4, Melen#kai #!a)ik se$a$ aki$at den#an in)o!masi

<, Men#u$a. #!a)ik se$a$ aki$at %an# tela. dilen#kaimen"adi #!a)ik ali! Sistem Dinamik

7, Men%alin #!a)ik ali! Sistem Dinamik kedalam !o#!am

DYNAMO+ Stella+ 0ensim+ Po=e!sim+ atau e!samaanmatematika

Tahap Pemodelan Sistem Dinamik



>e!)iki! dalam te!minolo#i .u$un#an

se$a$ aki$at 6okus ada kete!kaitan uman $alik

(feedback linkages) dianta!a komonenkomonen sistem

Mem$uat $atasan sistem untukmenentukan komonen %an# masuk dantidak di dalam sistem

Aspek Penting



>e!)iki! se$a$ aki$at adala. kun'i dalammen#o!#anisi! ideide dalam studi SistemDinamik

@unakan kata men%e$a$kan ataumemen#a!u.i untuk men"elaskan .u$un#ananta! komonen di dalam sistem

Conto. %an# lo#is &misaln%a .ukum )isika* – makan $e!at $e!tam$a. – ai asa

Conto. %an# tidak lo#is &sosiolo#i+ ekonomi* – Pakai sa$uk en#aman men#u!an#i ko!$an

)atal dalam ke'elakaan lalu lintas

Hubungan Sebab Akibat



>e!)iki! se$a$ aki$at sa"a tidak 'uku

-man $alik: untuk men#atu!Bmen#endalikan sistem+ %aitu $e!uasuatu se$a$ %an# te!li$at dalam sistemnamun daat memen#a!u.i di!in%a

sendi!i-man $alik san#at entin# dalam

studi Sistem Dinamik

Umpan balik (Feedback)



ausal !oop Diagram (!D)

@a"i 0S Kine!"a – @a"i Kine!"a – Kine!"a @a"i

Lela. 0S Tidu! Lela. tidu!

Tidu! lela. ?

CLD menun"ukkan st!uktu! uman $alik da!isistem



Penanda !D

+

+

+

-

: "ika en%e$a$ naik+ aki$at akan naik &e!tum$u.an+

en#uatan*+ "ika en%e$a$ tu!un+ aki$at akan tu!un

: "ika en%e$a$ naik+ aki$at akan tu!un+ "ika en%e$a$tu!un+ aki$at akan naik



#em+mn ,Se))- –

,A.!)t-

Sales a!eoo!

Sales )o!'e is=eak

O/e!=o!ked

Num$e! is

limited



#%s!t!e5Re!n6%$"!n( /%%s

A''ele!atin# #!o=t. o!a''ele!atin# de'line



Sala!% Pe!)o!man'e+ Pe!)o!man'e

Sala!%

#

#

+

#%s!t!e5Re!n6%$"!n(

/%%s

The better I perform

The more salary I get







Ne(t!e 57'n"!n( /%%

T.e less ti!ed I am

T.e less I slee

#

"

-

Ti!ed Slee+ Slee Ti!ed

T.e mo!e ti!ed I am

T.e mo!e I slee

T.e mo!e I slee T.e less ti!ed I am

T.e less I slee T.e mo!e ti!ed I am



7'n"!n( /%%s

>od% Teme!atu!e

Desi!ed>od%

Teme!atu!e

Teme!atu!e @a

Ad"ust Clot.in#



7'n"!n( /%%s

S%stem !e/e!ts to status Guo T.e #oals a!e imli'it



/%% D%m!nn"e

T.e!e a!e s%stems =.i'. .a/e mo!et.an one )eed$a'k loo =it.in t.em T.e dominatin# loo mi#.t s.i)t o/e!

time

1.en a )eed$a'k loo is =it.in anot.e!+one loo must dominate Sta$le 'onditions =ill e(ist =.en

ne#ati/e loos dominate ositi/e loos



C%m)!ned 8eed)". /%%s

Cse %6 #%*'t!%n G$%&t+3

-+

# #

# "



E9%(en%*s Items

Items t.at a))e't ot.e! items in t.e s%stem$ut a!e not t.emsel/es a))e'ted $% an%t.in#in t.e s%stem

A!!o=s a!e d!a=n )!om t.ese items $utt.e!e a!e no a!!o=s d!a=n to t.ese items

#

#

"

-



De'ys

1.en %ou tell t.e sto!% add t.e

=o!d 8e/entuall%9Cause t.e s%stem to o/e!s.oot

t.e ta!#et



De'ys

S%stems o)ten !esond slu##is.l%

6!om t.e e(amle $elo=+ on'e t.e t!ees a!elanted+ t.e .a!/est !ate 'an $e F untilt.e t!ees #!o= enou#. to .a!/est

-

delay



System T+!n.!n(

SystemSt$*"t*$e

#tte$n %6

7e+!%*$

Eents



7s!" System 7e+!%$s

E(onential @!o=t.

@oal Seekin#

Os'illation

Ss.aed @!o=t.

Ss.aed @!o=t. =it.O/e!s.oot

O/e!s.oot and Collase

:HHPM Tue+ No/ 24+HHH

H,HH ;,HH 7,HH 3,HH 2,HH

Time

2:

2:

2:

H,HH

<HH,HH

2HHH,HH

2:Le/el

2

2

2

2

@!a. 2&-ntitled*

3:25PM Tue+No/ 24+ HHH


Time

2:

2:

2:

2HH,HH

2<H,HH

HH,HH

2:S%stem Le/el 2

2

2

22

@!a. 2&-n titled*

3:3 PM Tue+ No/ 24+ HHH

H,HH 2H,HH H,HH ;H,HH 4H,HH

Time

2:

2:

2:

<H,HH

HH,HH

;<H,HH

2:S%stem Le/el 2

2

2

2

2

@!a.2&-ntitled*

2H:25 PM Tue+ No/ 24+HHH

H,HH ,<H 2<,HH ,<H ;H,HH

Time

2:

2:

2:

H,HH

HH,HH

24HH,HH

2: S%stem Le/el

2

2

2

2

@!a. 2 &-ntitled*

2H:3 PM Tue+ No/ 24+ HHH

H,HH 2,55 ;,< <,7 ,<H

Time

2:

2:

2:

:

:

:

<,HH

;H,HH

<<,HH

H,HH

<HH,HH

2HHH,HH

2:S%stem Le/el :Ca!!%in# Caa'it%

2

2

2

2

@!a. 2 &-ntitled*

2H:H< PM Tue+ No/ 24+HHH

H,HH <,HH 2H,HH 2<,HH H,HH

Time

2:

2:

2:

H,HH

<HH,HH

2HHH,HH

2: S%stem Le/el

2

2

2

2

@!a. 2&-ntitled*



E9%nent!' G$%&t+

:HH PM Tue+ No/ 24+ HHH


Time

2:

2:

2:

H,HH

<HH,HH

2HHH,HH

2: Le/el

2

2

2

2

@!a. 2 &-ntitled*

S%stem Le/el

In)lo=

Net in'!ease !ate

Positi/e )eed$a'k loos #ene!ate #!o=t.+ amli)% de/iations+ and !ein)o!'e '.an#e, An initial Guantit% o)somet.in# sta!ts to #!o=+ and t.e !ate o) #!o=t. in'!eases,



G%' See.!n(Ne#ati/e )eed$a'k loos seek $alan'e+ eGuili$!ium+ and stati', T.e Guantit% o) inte!est sta!ts eit.e! a$o/e o!$elo= a #oal le/el and o/e! time mo/es to=a!d t.e #oal,



Time

2:

2:

2:

2HH,HH

2<H,HH

HH,HH

2: S%stem Le/el 2

2

2

22

@!a. 2 &-ntitled*

S%stem Le/elCo!!e'ti/e A'tion

Dis'!ean'%

@oalRate o) '.an#e



Os"!''t!%n Time dela%s 'ause t.e state o) s%stem to 'onstantl% o/e!s.oots its #oal o! eGuili$!ium state+ !e/e!ses+ t.enunde!s.oots+ and so on, t.e Guantit% o) inte!est )lu'tuates a!ound some le/el,


H,HH 2H,HH H,HH ;H,HH 4H,HH

Time

2:

2:

2:

<H,HH

HH,HH

;<H,HH

2: S%stem Le/el 2

2

2

2

2

@!a. 2 &-ntitled*

S%stem Le/elCo!!e'ti/e A'tion

Dis'!ean'%

Pe!'etion

@oalRate o) '.an#e

Pe!'etion Dela



Ss+ed G$%&t+No !eal Guantit% 'an #!o= o! de'line )o!e/e!+ e/entuall% one o! mo!e 'onst!aints .alt t.e #!o=t., Initial e(onential#!o=t. is )ollo=ed $% #oalseekin# $e.a/io! =.i'. !esults in t.e /a!ia$le le/elin# oJ,

2H:H< PM Tue+ No/ 24+ HHH

H,HH <,HH 2H,HH 2<,HH H,HH

Time

2:

2:

2:

H,HH

<HH,HH

2HHH,HH

2: S%stem Le/el

2

2

2

2

@!a. 2 &-ntitled*

S%stem Le/elNet In'!ease Rate

Resou!'e AdeGua'%

Ca!!%in# Caa'it%No!mal @!o=t. Rate



SS+ed G$%&t+ &!t+

Oe$s+%%t

Time dela%s in lead to t.e ossi$ilit% t.at t.e state o) t.e s%stem =ill o/e!s.ootand os'illate a!ound t.e 'a!!%in# 'aa'it%,


Resou!'e AdeGua'%

Ca!!%in# Caa'it%No!mal @!o=t. Rate

Dela%ed Resou!'e E))e't


H,HH ,<H 2<,HH ,<H ;H,HH

Time

2:

2:

2:

H,HH

HH,HH

24HH,HH

2: S%stem Le/el

2

2

2

2

@!a. 2 &-ntitled*



Oe$s+%%t nd C%''se T.e a$ilit% o) t.e en/i!onment to suo!t a #!o=in# oulation is e!oded o!'onsumed $% t.e oulation itsel),


H,HH 2,55 ;,< <,7 ,<H

Time

2:

2:

2:

:

:

:

<,HH

;H,HH

<<,HH

H,HH

<HH,HH

2HHH,HH

2: S%stem Le/el : Ca!!%in# Caa'it%

2

2

2

2

@!a. 2 &-ntitled*


Resou!'e AdeGua'%

E!osion o) Ca!!%in# Caa'it%

No!mal @!o=t. Rate

Ca!!%in# Caa'it%

Consumtion !ate



St%". ; 8'%& D!($m



T.!ee di))e!ent t%es o) elements a!e &i*sto'kBle/elBa''umulation+ &ii* )lo=B!ate+ and &iii*

in)o!mation T.e sto'k and )lo= dia#!am s.o=s !elations.is

amon# /a!ia$les =.i'. .a/e t.e otential to'.an#e o/e! time &time based variables*

-nlike a 'ausal loo dia#!am+ a sto'k and )lo=dia#!am distin#uis.es $et=een di))e!ent t%es o)/a!ia$les

St%". ; 8'%& D!($m



A sto'k is an a''umulation o) somet.in# &as!e!esentin# .%si'al entitiesBelementsBunits*+8state /a!ia$le9 !e'tan#ula! $o(

A )lo= is t.e mo/ement o) t.e 8somet.in# )!omone sto'k to anot.e! dou$le line a!!o=

Rate o) )lo= is 'ont!olled $% 8/al/e9

In)o!mation is s%m$olied $% an 8a!!o=9 E(amle : t.e mone% is a sto'k+ and t.e t!ans)e!

oe!ation )o! t.e mone% is a )lo=

St%". ; 8'%& D!($m



Materials : t.is in'ludes all sto'ks and )lo=s o).%si'al #oods =.i'. a!e a!t o) a !odu'tion

and dist!i$ution !o'ess+ =.et.e! !a= mate!ials+in!o'ess in/ento!ies+ o! )inis.ed !odu'ts,

Personnel : t.is #ene!all% !e)e!s to a'tualeole+ )o! e(amle .ou!s o) la$ou!,

Capital equipment : t.is in'ludes su'. t.in#sas )a'to!% sa'e+ tools+ and ot.e! eGuimentne'essa!% )o! t.e !odu'tion o) #oods and!o/ision o) se!/i'es,

Tyes %6 St%". ; 8'%&



Orders : t.is in'ludes su'. t.in#s as o!de!s )o!#oods+ !eGuisitions )o! ne= emlo%ees+ and

'ont!a'ts )o! ne= sa'e o! 'aital eGuiment,O!de!s a!e t%i'all% t.e !esult o) somemana#ement de'ision =.i'. .as $een made+ $utnot %et 'on/e!ted into t.e desi!ed !esult,

Money : t.is is used in t.e 'as. sense, T.at is+ a

)lo= o) mone% is t.e a'tual t!ansmittal o) a%ments$et=een di))e!ent sto'ks o) mone%,

Tyes %6 St%". ; 8'%&

materi ii system dynamsistemics

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