kompendium-era-environmental-risk-assessment.pptx

ERAENVIRONMENTAL

RISK ASSESSMEN

T

Dihimpun oleh: Sri Utami, A. Ali, Sopingi, F. Warrouw dan SoemarnoPSL-PDKLP-PPSUB Malang, Januari 2013

UNDANG-UNDANG REPUBLIK INDONESIANOMOR 32 TAHUN 2009

TENTANGPERLINDUNGAN DAN PENGELOLAAN LINGKUNGAN

HIDUP

Paragraf 11

ANALISIS RISIKO LINGKUNGAN HIDUP

Pasal 47

(1) Setiap usaha dan/atau kegiatan yang berpotensi menimbulkan dampak penting terhadap lingkungan hidup,

ancaman terhadap ekosistem dan kehidupan, dan/atau kesehatan dan keselamatan manusia wajib melakukan

analisis risiko lingkungan hidup.

(2) Analisis risiko lingkungan hidup sebagaimana dimaksud pada ayat (1) meliputi:

a. pengkajian risiko;b. pengelolaan risiko; dan/atau

c. komunikasi risiko

Diunduh dari: ………. 8/1/2013

PENJELASAN PASAL-PASAL

Pasal 47

Ayat (1)Yang dimaksud dengan “analisis risiko lingkungan” adalah

prosedur yang antara lain digunakan untuk mengkajipelepasan dan peredaran produk rekayasa genetik dan

pembersihan (clean up) limbah B3.

Ayat (2)

Huruf aDalam ketentuan ini “pengkajian risiko” meliputi seluruh proses

mulai dari identifikasi bahaya, penaksiran besarnya konsekuensi atau akibat, dan penaksiran kemungkinan munculnya dampak yang tidak diinginkan, baik terhadap keamanan dan kesehatan

manusia maupun lingkungan hidup.

Huruf bDalam ketentuan ini “pengelolaan risiko” meliputi evaluasi risiko atau seleksi risiko yang memerlukan pengelolaan, identifikasi

pilihan pengelolaan risiko, pemilihan tindakan untuk pengelolaan, dan pengimplementasian tindakan yang dipilih.

Huruf cYang dimaksud dengan “komunikasi risiko” adalah proses interaktif dari pertukaran informasi dan pendapat di antara

individu, kelompok, dan institusi yang berkenaan dengan risiko

Diunduh dari: ………. 8/1/2013

RISK ASSESSMENT

Risk assessment is a step in a risk management procedure. Risk assessment is the determination of quantitative or qualitative value of risk related to a concrete situation and a recognized

threat (also called hazard).

Quantitative risk assessment requires calculations of two components of risk (R):, the

magnitude of the potential loss (L), and the probability (p) that the loss will occur.

In all types of engineering of complex systems sophisticated risk assessments are often made within Safety engineering and

Reliability engineering when it concerns threats to life, environment or machine functioning. The nuclear, aerospace, oil, rail and military industries have a long history of dealing with risk assessment. Also, medical, hospital, and food industries control

risks and perform risk assessments on a continual basis.

Methods for assessment of risk may differ between industries and whether it pertains to general financial decisions or

environmental, ecological, or public health risk assessment.

Diunduh dari: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_assessment………. 6/1/2013

RISK ASSESSMENT

Risk assessment is a step in a risk management procedure. Risk assessment is the determination of quantitative or qualitative value of risk related to a concrete situation and a recognized threat

(also called hazard).

Quantitative risk assessment requires calculations of two components of risk (R):, the magnitude of the potential loss (L), and

the probability (p) that the loss will occur. In all types of engineering of complex systems sophisticated risk

assessments are often made within Safety engineering and Reliability engineering when it concerns threats to life, environment

or machine functioning. The nuclear, aerospace, oil, rail and military industries have a long

history of dealing with risk assessment. Also, medical, hospital, and food industries control risks and perform risk assessments on a

continual basis.

Methods for assessment of risk may differ between industries and whether it pertains to general financial decisions or environmental,

ecological, or public health risk assessment.

Diunduh dari: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_assessment………. 6/1/2013

Quantitative risk assessmentQuantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) is the determination of the probability

and consequences of potential losses in numerical terms. The assignment of probability values to the various events in the risk model

provides for a quantitative assessment of risk.An important aspect of risk assessment is the estimation of the

associated uncertainty. Therefore, the process may be completed through the use of statistical models such as probability analysis, Poisson

distributions or Bayesian theory. These statistical models require the use of past data and assumptions about future trends. Much of the data may

be accumulated from different sources.

http://www.coastalwiki.org/coastalwiki/Event

THEORIES IN

ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT

Diunduh dari: www.pitt.edu/~super7/20011-21001/20801.ppt………. 6/1/2013

• by Liviu – Daniel GALATCHI• Assistant Professor

• Ovidius University, Constanta, Romania

• N.A.T.O. A.R.W., August 07-11, 2005, Kaunas, Lithuania

Theories in Environmental Risk Assessment

by Liviu – Daniel GALATCHIAssistant Professor

Ovidius University, Constanta, Romania

N.A.T.O. A.R.W., August 07-11, 2005, Kaunas, Lithuania


What is environmental risk assessment (ERA)?

Qualitative and quantitative valuation of environmental

status

ERA is comprised of:

1. Human health risk assessment;

2. Ecological risk assessment.


Pendekatan Sistematik untuk Pendugaan Risiko

ERA should be conducted when it is determined that a management

action may have consequences to either humans or the environment.


Pendugaan Risiko secara Sistematik

Analisis Sistem

MenghitungRisiko

Menduga Frekuensi

Menduga Konsekwensi

Identifi-kasi

Bahaya

PenentuanAseptabilitas

KriteriaAseptabilitas

Tingkat risiko yang dapat

diterima

Menentukan Perbaikan

Tingkat risidu-risiko yang dapat

diterima

Pendugaan Risiko secara Sistematik


Pendekatan Sistematik untuk Pendugaan Risiko

Pengelolaan Risiko

Karakterisasi Risiko

Identifikasi Bahaya

Perhitungan bahaya: Daur hidup dan batasan sistem, definisi, ekstraksi,

pengolahan, transport, limbah.

Evaluasi jalur lingkungan: dampak buruk emisi, konsentrasi emisi, paparan emisi, dosis

emisi

Human health risk assessment (HHRA)

• Identifikasi Bahaya; • dose-response

assessment; • exposure

assessment; • Karakterisasi Risiko.

Meliputi:


Ecological risk assessment (ERA)

It is determined the likelihood of the occurrence/non-occurrence of adverse

ecological effects as a result of exposure to stressors


Diunduh dari: http://dc230.4shared.com/doc/oVv9Our9/preview010.png



Identifikasi Masalah

Pendugaan Risiko Lingkungan

Pendugaan Risiko

EKologis

Pendugaan Risiko Kesehatan Manusia



Analisis

Formulasi masalah

Identifikasi Bahaya

Respon-Paparan

Sumberdaya: Udara, Air, Tanah,

Biota

What is environmental risk assessment (ERA)?

• Qualitative and quantitative valuation of environmental status

ERA is comprised of:

1. human health risk assessment;

2. ecological risk assessment.


Qualitative risk assessment

Although the bulk of the effort in developing methods of risk analysis has been addressed to quantitative methods, critical aspects of risk frequently require qualitative evaluation. Qualitative risk analysis may use “expert” opinion to

estimate probability (or frequency) and consequence (or impacts) often through linguistic expressions. Based on expert judgement different qualitative consequence categories can be defined in terms of for example high, medium,

low, etc. The same can be done for qualitative probability categories in terms of

expressions as likely, may occur, not likely, very unlikely. This subjective approach may be sufficient to assess the risk of a system, depending on the decisions to be made and available resources. Formal processes for expert-opinion elicitation have been developed to provide consistency in qualitative

information gathering (e.g. Delphi technique). Concerning qualitative uncertainty estimates, one has to rely on subjective estimates of uncertainty

Systematic approach to risk assessment

ERA should be conducted when it is determined that a management action may have consequences to

either humans or the environment.


Seven steps of an ERA and associated key-questions (based on Fairman et al., 1999)

1. Problem Formulation What needs to be assessed?

2. Hazard Identification What can go wrong?

3. Release Assessment How often or how likely?

4. Exposure Assessment

How does the released material reach the receptor, at which intensity, for how long and/or how frequent? How likely will the

receptors be exposed to the released pollution?

5. Consequence or Effect Assessment What is the effect on the receptors?

6. Risk Characterisation and Estimation

What are the risks (quantitative or qualitative measure)?

7. Risk Evaluation How important is the risk to those affected, those who create it and those who control it?

Diunduh dari: http://www.coastalwiki.org/coastalwiki/Environmental_risk_assessment_of_marine_a

ctivities………. 6/1/2013

Presentation of the general key tasks in environmental risk assessment (Based on Fairman et al. 1999)

http://www.coastalwiki.org/w/images/3/3a/Key_tasks_in_environmental_risk_assessment.PNG

Diunduh dari: http://www.coastalwiki.org/coastalwiki/Environmental_risk_assessment_of_marine_activities………

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Problem Formulation

The problem formulation step is crucial in ERA. Initially the problem has to be defined and certain issues must be clear before the assessment starts:

What are the risk sources we want to assess? Are these point sources (e.g. wind energy parks) or mobile sources (e.g. maritime transport, fishing fleets) and what are the characteristics of these risk sources?Are we concerned with the production, use or disposal of the hazard?

What are the environmental hazards to be taken into account: mineral oil, chemicals, garbage, sewage, ballast water, tributyltin, emissions, noise

etc;Which are the pathways in which the created hazard can reach the

receptor and which are the receptors and end-points?Will we focus on pre-defined sensitive ecosystems (e.g. special areas of conservation under the Habitats Directive, EC Birds Directive or areas with a high value in recreational amenity or commercially exploitable

biological resources) or do we cover the risks for a broader area?

At this stage, a generic model should be defined to describe the functions, features, characteristics and attributes of the system under investigation. Other questions that need to be handled in this first step are those related

to legal and policy frameworks relevant to the risk assessment. Will we rely on regulatory standards and policy frameworks as a guide to

determine "acceptable" risk and the significance of including specific end-points? Is there a legal framework that determines how we should

approach the risk assessment?

http://www.coastalwiki.org/coastalwiki/Ecosystems

http://www.jncc.gov.uk/page-1374

http://www.jncc.gov.uk/page-1373


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Hazard Identification

The purpose of this step is to identify all of the conceivable and relevant hazards that could possibly cause harm to the

receptor of interest. The identification may involve the establishment of those agents that may cause harm and working backwards to identify how this harm could occur.

Alternatively, hazard identification may arise from examining all possible outcomes of routine operation and identifying the consequences from normal operation.[4]

The hazards identification step is closely linked to the next step, release assessment in the sense that these steps are

both risk source related while the exposure and consequence steps are risk receptor related. Often, no distinction is made between hazard identification and release assessment, and is simply denominated as

"hazard identification".

1. Fairman R., Mead C. D. and Williams W. P. (1999). Environmental Risk Assessment – Approaches, Experiences and Information Sources. Monitoring and Assessment Research centre, King’s College, London. Published by European Environment Agency – EEA Environmental issue report No 4.

http://www.coastalwiki.org/coastalwiki/Environmental_risk_assessment_of_marine_activities


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Release Assessment

The Release Assessment step involves the identification of the potential of the risk source to introduce hazardous agents into the environment. This may be descriptive or involve the quantification of the release. Release assessment attempts to give a measure of the likelihood of a release. It will include a description of the types, amounts, timings and probabilities of the release of hazards into the environment and a description of how these attributes might change as a result of various actions or events.

Release assessment is also risk source related and therefore often executed together with the hazard identification step.

In quantitative risk analysis (QRA), a quantitative estimation of the probability of release can be approached in two ways:

The historical approach which uses direct statistical data on the system under investigation. This may be collected monitoring data or data from similar marine activities. This includes data on undesired events as well as data on recovery and control measures which mitigates the potential

impacts.The approach which uses analytical and simulation techniques, breaking

the system down into contributing factors and causes. Collected monitoring data or data from similar marine activities are also used to

verify the modelling results.Expert judgement can be used to estimate the likelihood or probability of a release of hazards in a non-quantitative way. Based on the results of the

hazard identification, the likelihood is divided in different categories in terms of terms of expressions as likely, may occur, not likely, very unlikely.

[1]

1. Wilcox R. LT. Burrows M. CDR. Ghosh S. and Ayyub B. M. (2000). Risk-based Technology for the Safety Assessment of Marine Compressed Natural Gas Fuel Systems. International Cooperation on Marine Engineering Systems/The Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers. Paper presented at the 8th ICMES/SNAME New York Metropolitan Section Symposium in New York, May 22-23, 2000.



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Exposure Assessment

Exposure assessment attempts to quantify the potential exposure levels of the hazard at the receptor site. It includes a description of the intensity, frequency and duration of exposure through the various exposure media

(routes of exposure) and the nature of the population exposed. Risk assessment on ecosystems has to deal with a multitude of organisms, all with varying sensitivities to chemicals and various groups have distinct

exposure scenarios (e.g. free swimming species have another exposure pathway than benthonic species). The exposure assessment step

requires the use of monitoring data, exposure modelling techniques and also mapping models to locate ecological sensitivity incorporating GIS

techniques.[4][6]

Most of the time, exposure of ecosystems to produced hazards is determined in terms of the Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC).

The PEC is calculated on both local and regional spatial scales from monitoring data where available (also called Monitored Environmental

Concentration (MEC)), or by using realistic worst-case scenarios. If this information is not available, estimates are made from exposure models. The PEC is calculated for each environmental compartment using the

information available on release quantities and subsequent degradation processes in the "standard" environment. Site-specific information is used when available and appropriate. The relevant compartments of the marine

environment are:[6]

1. Water-exposure of aquatic organisms across respiratory and other permeable surfaces;

2. Sediment-exposure of sediment dwelling (benthic) organisms by ingestion of, or direct contact with, sediment particles;

3. Biota-exposure of higher trophic levels via the food chain (secondary poisoning), by predation on organisms that have been exposed via the water, sediment or predation on other organisms.

4. Air-exposure for marine birds and mammals by inhalation of the chemical in the air they breath (likely less significant than the other three)


http://www.coastalwiki.org/coastalwiki/Benthic

http://www.coastalwiki.org/coastalwiki/Sensitivity

http://www.coastalwiki.org/coastalwiki/GIS






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Consequence or Effect Assessment

A Consequence Assessment will examine the consequences of the release or production of the hazards, to the specified population and the quantification of the relationship between specified exposures to the hazard and the consequences of

those exposures. The consequences examined in ecological systems are varied and few defined end-points exist at present. Environmental risk assessment on

ecosystems is concerned with different populations and communities and the effects of substances on their mortality and fecundity.[4]

In ecological impact assessment, the consequences or effects can be estimated in terms of the Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC).

Separate PNEC values need to be derived for the relevant compartments of interest: water compartment, benthic compartment (sediments) and biota (representing

organisms which are eaten by avian and mammalian predators). PNEC values can be derived using ecotoxicity tests. In these tests, the estimation of the PNEC is

primarily made on the basis of results from monospecies laboratory tests or, in some cases, from model ecosystem tests. The available ecotoxicity data are used to

derive a No Observed Effect Concentration (NOEC) or a Lowest Observed Effect Concentration (LOEC). The test species used are selected to represent the

sensitivities of different taxonomic groups in each environmental compartment. For aquatic effects assessments, ecotoxicity data are required on representatives of fish

species, daphnia and algae.[4]

Assessment (safety) factors are applied to the toxicity value to enable extrapolation from laboratory experiments to the field, acute to chronic effects and for inter and intra species variations. The size of the assessment factor varies according to the

number and type of data available and the likely duration of exposure. [4][6]

Ecotoxicological Assessment Criteria (EACs) are defined as effects benchmarks against which the results of environmental monitoring can be assessed in an

attempt to identify possible areas of concern. The determination of EACs is based on the same principles as for the assessment factors. EACs are only derived when data which meet predefined quality criteria are available from at least three species.Expert judgement may also be used to assess the magnitude of the consequences

in qualitative terms. Dependent on the pollution source and ecosystem characteristics, the potential consequences on the ecosystem are divided in different

categories (e.g. “minor” to “catastrophic”).



http://www.coastalwiki.org/coastalwiki/Ecotoxicity



http://www.coastalwiki.org/coastalwiki/Sensitivity




http://www.coastalwiki.org/coastalwiki/Pollution




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Risk Characterisation and Estimation

Risk characterisation consists of integrating the results from the release assessment, exposure assessment and the consequence assessment to produce measures of environmental risks. This may include an estimate of the numbers of measures indicating environmental damage, and the uncertainty involved in these

estimates.[4]

In the risk characterisation as described above, PEC incorporates the results of the release and the exposure assessment step while PNEC incorporates the results of the consequence assessment step. Current risk assessment practice compares the

PEC with the PNEC for the relevant ecosystem using data from representative species. Implicit in this approach is the assumption that there is a tolerable threshold

of any chemical substance in the environment (via the PNEC). An element of precaution is built into the approach via the use of conservative/worse-case

assumptions within exposure and effects assessments. [6]

The EU practice on risk characterisation involves the calculation of a quotient – the PEC/PNEC ratio. This PEC/PNEC ratio should be calculated for all relevant

endpoints. If the PEC/PNEC is less than 1, the substance of concern is considered to present no risk to the environment and there is no need for further testing or risk reduction measures. If the ratio cannot be reduced to below 1 by refinement of the

ratio (by gathering of further information and further testing), risk reduction measures are necessary.[4]

The PEC/PNEC ratio risk characterisation method does not allow us to assess the effective risk expressed in e.g. terms of number of affected individuals or reduced population density in a specific region resulting from a particular activity. An overall estimation of risk can be defined as the multiplication of the consequence for each damage-causing event with the frequency of that event. The frequency of an event is a result of the hazard identification and release step (e.g. frequency of collisions, powered grounding, etc. within a particular area). The consequence of a damage-causing event is usually defined as casualty probabilities. This is presented in the

PECs (e.g. amount of fuel oil spilled due to collisions at the receptor site), taking into account the relevant PNECs representing the thresholds below which no damage exists for the investigated species (e.g. no effect concentrations of fuel oil in the

different relevant marine ecosystem compartments for seagulls). The population of the species under investigation (e.g. seagulls) present in the areas covered by each probability band is multiplied by the appropriate casualty probability producing the

total number of the population predicted to be affected by each event. When combined with the frequency for each event, a risk estimate can be produced for

this specific species. This process can be repeated for a number of key species in order to have an overall idea about the risks for the whole ecosystem.

Although a quantitative risk assessment approach is preferred, there may be cases where this can not be carried out (e.g. no PEC or PNEC can be properly calculated).

Qualitative risk assessment can be used as an alternative. In this case, the risk characterisation shall entail a qualitative evaluation of the likelihood that an effect will occur under the expected conditions of exposure. The results of the qualitative risk characterisation can be used as a base to prioritise risk reduction measures.








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Risk Evaluation

Risk Evaluation is the examination of what the characterised risks actually means in practice. What is the significance or value of the identified hazards and estimated

risks? Risk evaluation deals with the trade-off between the perceived risks and benefits. This includes acknowledgement of the public perception of the risk and the

influence that this will have on the acceptability of risk and risk decisions. On its turn, the public perception of risk depends on the economic, social, legal and

political context in which the affected and/or concerned population lives. [4]

The risk evaluation may take account of these perceived risks and benefits and incorporate them in the final risk assessment. The results from this risk evaluation may serve as an input to the risk management process. Based on the acceptable

level of risk eventual choices of action are determined needed to achieve the desired level of risk. If a system has a risk value above the risk acceptance level, actions should be taken to address concerned risks and to improve the system

though risk reduction measures.

The three major approaches to evaluate risks are:1. Professional judgement: technical experts most knowledgeable in their fields

examine the risks and make conclusions based on ‘best judgement’. Expert judgement may be used to estimate probability (step 3 and 4, see 1.3.2 and 1.3.3) and consequence (step 5, see 1.3.5). Based on a ranking of the probability and consequences of the concerned risk, experts may defineacceptance levels.

2. Formal analysis: Cost-benefit, cost-risk-benefit and decision analysis are the most common of formal analysis techniques for alternative risk management options. In cost benefit analysis and cost-risk-benefit analysis, benefits (e.g. avoided pollution, risk) and costs (cost of pollution reduction or risk reduction measures) associated with a particular risk management option are evaluated against each other. Decision analysis is an axiomatic theory for making choices in uncertain conditions.

3. Bootstrapping: Bootstrapping approaches identify and continue policies that have evolved over time. It is argued that society achieves a reasonable balance between risks and benefits only through experience. The safety levels achieved with old risks provide the best guide as to how to manage new risks.




Human health risk assessment (HHRA)

1. hazard identification;

2. dose-response assessment;

3. exposure assessment;

4. risk characterization.

Involves:

Diunduh dari: http://www.dtsc.ca.gov/AssessingRisk/index.cfm………. 6/1/2013

Human Health RiskHuman health risk assessment involves examining issues related to specific contaminants, including environmental fate and transport, and exposure assessment. In addition, the toxicity parameters of contaminants are evaluated to make sure that the latest scientific

knowledge is used in evaluating potential toxicity. At sites involving remedial action, risk assessment is used to determine the nature and extent of remedial activities, such as

establishing preliminary cleanup goals.


It is determined the likelihood of the occurrence/non-occurrence of adverse ecological effects as a result

of exposure to stressors


Ecological Risk Assessment (EcoRA) involves the assessment of the risks posed by the presence of substances released to the environment by man, in theory, on all living organisms in the variety of ecosystems which make up the environment.

EcoRAs tend to focus on the risks from chemicals and Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs), some address

physical risks such as temperature rises caused by cooling water releases from industry.

Ecological risk assessment is very much a developing field and has many problems which need resolving such as;

1. Determining the effects at population and community level;2. Selection of end-points; 3. Selection of indicative species; 4. The selection of field, laboratory, mesocosm and

microcosm tests; 5. The incorporation of resilience and recovery factors of the

ecosystem.

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/GH-07-97-595-EN-C2/chapter6h.html

Hazards - Bahaya1. chemicals toxic to humans, animals, and

plants;

2. materials that are highly flammable or explosive;

3. mechanical equipment, the failure of which would endanger persons and property;

4. structural failure (e.g., dam or containment vessel);

5. natural disasters that exacerbate technological hazards;

6. ecosystem damage (e.g., eutrophication, soil erosion).


Contoh Informasi Bayaya

1. potential release of hazardous chemicals (rate and amount);

2. accidental fires and explosions;3. transport and fate of pollutants in the environment;4. dilution-dispersion mechanisms and rates;5. exposure to toxins (who, how many, how much);6. dose-response predictions based on animal tests;7. failure rates of mechanical equipment or

structures;8. human behavior (errors by workers, public

reaction);9. natural hazards (earthquake, tsunami, typhoon);10. alterations in drainage patterns, water table,

vegetation, microclimate.


Uncertainties – Ketidak-pastian

1. lack of understanding of important cause-effect relationships, lack of scientific theory;

2. models that do not correspond to reality; 3. weaknesses in available data; 4. data gaps; 5. toxicological data that are extrapolated; 6. natural variation in environmental parameters; 7. necessary assumptions on which estimates are

based, and the sensitivity of the resulting estimates to changes in the assumptions;

8. novelty of the project.


ERA fokus pada tiga pertanyaan

1. What can go wrong with the project?

2. What is the range of magnitude of these adverse consequences?

3. What can be done and at what cost to reduce unacceptable risk and damage?

The interactive

nature of ERA


Pembandingan Risiko1. Probability of frequency of events causing one or

more immediate fatalities.

2. Chance of death for an individual within a specified population in each year.

3. Number of deaths from lifetime exposure.

4. Loss of life expectancy considers the age at which death occurs.

5. Deaths per tone of product, or per facility.


Tujuan melaksanakan ERA

1. to learn about the risks

2. to reduce the risk

Pendugaan Risiko secara Kuantitatif – Skenario yang mungkin

1. quantity of toxic material in the inventory is hazardous;

2. overpressure in the storage tank in combination with failure of the relief valve leading to tank rupture;

3. combination of wind speed and atmospheric stability leading to an estimated spatial and temporal distribution of toxic material concentration;

4. population distribution based on night-time occurrence.


Komunikasi Risiko

Psychologists studying risk perception find that fears are heightened beyond what the objective facts would warrant when:

1. risks are involuntary or controlled by others;2. the consequences are dread and delayed;3. the benefits and risks are inequitably

distributed;4. the proposed project is unfamiliar and involves

complex technology;5. basic needs such as clean air, drinking water,

or food are threatened.


Risk management: 3 main phases

1. Risk analysis and assessment: identification of hazards to people and the environment, the determination of the probability of occurrence of these hazards, and the magnitude of the events.

2. Risk limits - entails defining the acceptability of the risk, which can be classified as acceptable or in need of reduction.

3. Risk reduction: design and implementation of risk-reducing measures and controls.



Manajemen Risiko: Tiga tahapan utama

Riset Pendugaan Risiko Manajemen Risiko

Lembaga Pengambil Keputusan

dan Program Aksi

Pengembangan pilihan

Regulasi dan Non-regulasi

Evaluasi konsekwensi

akibat regulasi: kesehatan,

ekonomi, sosial dan politik

Karakterisasi risiko:

deskripsi risiko,

pendugaan bahaya,

respon-dosis, paparan

Identifikasi bahaya:

Penyebab terjadinya efek

buruk

Pendugaan respon-dosis (Hubungan

antara dosis dengan

insiden pada manusia)

Pendugaan paparan: Apakah

paparan terjadi sekarang atau

diantisipasi pada kondisi

lain?

Pengukuran lapangan, estimasi paparan,

karakterisasi populasi

Informasi metode

ekstrapolasiUntuk dosis

tinggi hingga rendah dan binatang ke

manusia

Observasi lapang dan

laboratorium ttg efek kesehatan

dan paparan agen-agen

tertentu

Rencana Manajemen Bencana

1. details of the specification of equipment and machineries, plot plan, and hazardous areas classifications;

2. details of the risk assessment procedure adopted;

3. details of the on-site and off-site emergency plan;

4. details of the fire extinguishers and foams.


1. Specification;

2. Plot plan;

3. Hazardous area classification;

4. Diagrams showing all the equipment in position, process and utility valves, instruments, control system, safety valves and other safety devices;

5. Storage of inflammable liquids;

6. Risk assessment.

Arahan Perencanaan Manajemen Bencana

Analisis Bahaya: Pendugaan Risiko Pabrik

1. Which materials or process streams are flammable or combustible?

2. What is their ignition temperature or what is their ignition energy requirement?

3. How fast will they burn?

4. How much heat can be generated per unit?

5. How much quantity will be available in any one area?

6. Will it explode?


Scope and objectives of risk assessment of industries

1. To develop a risk hazard checking system. 2. To rank the plant layout on the hazard potentials. 3. To re-modify the plant layout and identify safety measures

to be undertaken within the industry, so as to minimize the on-site economic damage as well as off-site risks to the society and environment.

4. To assist the regulatory authorities, planners, and designers to investigate plant accidents and predict the possible consequences for decision-making.

5. make decisions on industrial clearance swiftly and on a more rational basis.

1. Identification of possible hazardous events.

2. Consequence analysis.

3. Quantitative analysis of system failure probability from their component failure or frequency assessment


Pendugaan TOTAL RISIKO

depends primarily upon two factors: data and organization.

PROSEDUR IDENTIFIKASI BAHAYA

1. Simple "passive'' dispersion involves neutral buoyancy and plume rise for heat and momentum. It is used for those phases of gas dispersion dominated by atmospheric turbulence.

2. Moment jet dispersion covers high velocity release, when the released gas can be denser or lighter than air, and involves simple horizontal jet models, and complex plume path models.

3. Dense vapour cloud dispersion deals with clouds heavier than air, cold clouds, and liquid and vapour clouds.


KATAGORI MODEL DISPERSI

• Vulnerability model or probit equations have been derived for estimating, from dose relationships, the probability of affecting a certain proportion of the exposed population. These have been based almost exclusively on animal test data. The probit equation is:

Pr = At + Bt ln(Cnte)

where Pr = probability function, At, Bt, and n are constants, C is the concentration of pollutant to which exposure is made (in ppm v/v), and te is the duration of exposure to the pollutant, measured in minutes.

KATAGORI MODEL DISPERSI

Pendugaan Frequensi & Analisis Kuantitatif

• What is the probability that the system will fail on demand?

• What is the frequency of occurrence of the top event?

• Does a change in the system design improve or reduce the system reliability?


Categorization of the risk (probability x impact) of each consequence, e.g. using a risk graph

Diunduh dari: http://www.frame-online.net/architecture/about-architecture/19-how-can-you-undertake-risk-analysis.html ………. 8/1/2013

Kejadian yang melibatkan bahan-bahan mudah terbakar

(a) major fires with no danger of explosion, with hazards from prolonged high levels of thermal radiation and smoke;

(b) fire threatening items of plant containing hazardous substances, with hazards from spread of fire, explosion, or release of toxic substances;

(c) explosion with little or no warning, with hazards from blast wave, flying debris, and high levels of thermal radiation.


Diunduh dari: http://www.project-management-knowhow.com/risk_management.html ………. 6/1/2013

Another way of showing the different priorities of risks is by arranging them in the probability-impact-diagram. Mathematically spoken, the

risk value is the statistically expected value of impact or damage that risk event could cause.

Kejadian yang melibatkan bahan-bahan toksik

(a) slow or intermittent release of toxic substances, (from a leaking valve);

(b) items of plant threatened by fire, with hazards from potential loss of containment;

(c) rapid release of limited duration, due to plant failure (fracture of pipe, with hazards from a toxic cloud, limited in size, which may quickly disperse);

(d) massive release of a toxic substance due to failure of a large storage or process vessel, an uncontrollable chemical reaction and failure of safety systems, with the exposure hazard affecting a wide area.


Diunduh dari: http://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=19608………. 6/1/2013

A risk assessment for a toxic pollutant combines results of studies on the health effects of various animal and human exposures to the

pollutant with results of studies that estimate the level of people's exposures at different distances from the source of the pollutant.

Pendugaan tentang “Kecelakaan” yang mungkin-terjadi harus menghasilkan laporan

yang menyatakan:

(a) the worst events considered;

(b) the route of those worst events;

(c) the timescale to lesser events along the way;

(d) the size of lesser events if their development is halted;

(e) the relative likelihood of events;

(f) the consequences of each event.


Diagram is adapted from UNDMTP/Disaster Assessment (1994)

Diunduh dari: http://log.logcluster.org/response/assessment/index.html………. 8/1/2013

Elements to be included in an on-site emergency plan

(a) proper alarm and communication mechanisms; (b) appointment of personnel, which include:

(i) the site incident controller who will take care of the area around the incident when the emergency occurs and who will arrange the required rescue operations;

(ii) a site main controller who will direct operations from the emergency control center after relieving the site incident controller of the responsibility for overall control;

(c) details of the emergency control centers.


Aspects to be included in an off-site emergency plan

(i) Organization. (ii) Communications. (iii) Specialized emergency equipment. (iv) Specialized knowledge. (v) Voluntary organizations. (vi) Chemical information. (vii) Meteorological information. (viii) Humanitarian arrangements. (ix) Public information.(x) Assessment.


DIUNDUH DARI: www.clt.astate.edu/.../... …. 6/1/2013

ENVIRONMENTAL

RISK ASSESSMENT

http://www.clt.astate.edu/.../

PENDAHULUAN• Eventual goal of much environmental toxicology is ecological risk

assessment (ERA)• Developed as a management tool to aid in making environmental

decisions (area of much uncertainty)• Estimates risk of producing new product, releasing a pesticide or

effluent into the environment, etc.• May not be scientific assessment endpoints often set by societal

perceptions and values


Key Concepts – Risk1. Risk is a function of both

hazard (toxicity) and exposure

2. Most chemicals have the potential to cause adverse effects at high enough doses but there is usually a dose – a low enough exposure - below which no effects will occur

3. Generally, as the amount of exposure increases, so does the risk of effects

4. This is why risk assessments put such a strong emphasis on estimating both the amount and duration of exposures

5. Risk assessments match up what we know about hazard with how exposure is expected to occur

6. Used to identify potential concerns and risks

DIUNDUH DARI: http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/aquaculture/consultations/2012/PMRA-ARLA-eng.htm…. 8/1/2013


Purpose of ERA

• Purpose is to enable risk managers to make informed environmental decisions.

• Conducted to transform scientific data into meaningful information about the risk of human activities to the environment.

EPA/630/R-95/002FApril 1998

Guidelines forEcological Risk Assessment

(Published on May 14, 1998, Federal Register 63(93):26846-26924)

Risk Assessment ForumU.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Washington, DC

EPA/630/R-95/002FApril 1998

Guidelines forEcological Risk Assessment

(Published on May 14, 1998, Federal Register 63(93):26846-26924)

Risk Assessment ForumU.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Washington, DC



Framework for Environmental Risk Assessment

1. Previously risk assessment seen only as hazard assessment and fate

2. But above not easily separated in ecological systems when release chemical starts to change ecosystem while ecosystem is changing chemical

3. Need to go beyond and predict probability of ecological effects of chemical or action

Environmental risks in the sea



1. Interaction among risk assessors, risk managers, and interested parties all phases of an ERA is critical to ensure that the results can be used to support a management decision.

2. Because of the diverse expertise required (especially in complex ecological risk assessments), risk assessors and risk managers frequently work in multidisciplinary teams.


Framework for Environmental Risk Assessment

Environmental Risk Assessment Framework

DIUNDUH DARI: http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/aquaculture/consultations/2012/PMRA-ARLA-eng.htm…. 8/1/2013


Schematic of Framework

ERA includes three primary phases:

1. Problem formulation

2. Analysis

3. Risk characterizati

on



Outline of Phases of an ERA

1. Problem formulation– Beginning of dialogue between risk managers and

risk assessors. – Selection of assessment endpoints (what is

important?) – Risk assessors evaluate goals– Prepare the conceptual model– Develop an analysis plan.

2. Analysis phase– Assessors evaluate exposure to stressors and the

relationship between stressor levels and ecological effects.

3. Risk characterization, ⁻ assessors estimate risk through integration of

exposure and stressor-response profiles, ⁻ describe risk by discussing lines of evidence and

determining ecological adversity, and prepare a report.



Problem formulation1. Start of iterative process of defining the question under

consideration2. Directly affects the scientific validity and policy-making

usefulness of the ERA3. Composed of several six subunits



1. Discussion between risk assessor and risk manager

– Sets boundaries created by societal goals and scientific reality (data)

– Consolidates ambiguous goals• Protection of endangered species• Protection of fishery• Preserve structure and function of

ecosystem



2. Stressor characteristics?

• Can be biological, physical, chemical

• Characterized by– intensity (conc. or dose)– duration– frequency– timing– scale

Temporal aspects

Spatial aspect



3. Ecosystems Potentially at Risk?

• Difficult to address transport often difficult to predict

• Need to look at– Abiotic-biotic factors– History– Size– Geographic relationships


4. Efek-efek ekologis?• Includes any impact upon any level of ecosystem• Derived from hazard assessment (acute/chronic

toxiciy) and consideration of:– Biotransformations– Biodegradation– Reproductive effects– Predator-prey interactions– Production– Community biomass– Anything which has a direct role in the functioningof the ecosystem


4. Efek-efek ekologis?• Includes any impact upon any level of ecosystem• Derived from hazard assessment (acute/chronic

toxiciy) and consideration of:– Biotransformations– Biodegradation– Reproductive effects– Predator-prey interactions– Production– Community biomass– Anything which has a direct role in the functioningof the ecosystem



5. Endpoint selection• Most critical aspect of problem formulation sets

stage for remainder of process• Two types of endpoints

– Assessment endpoints• Set by ecological relevance, policy goals/societal values

(i.e. protect ecosystem structure/function)• Often can only infer from measurement endpoints

– Measurement endpoints• Measurable factors that respond to stressors and describe

characteristics of ecosystem important to assessment endpoints

• Design and selection based on relevance, practicality, etc


6. Model Konseptual• Framework into which data are placed• Defines how data will be interpreted (what is likely to be

affected:– Migratory birds?– Temporary pond amphibians?– Etc

Note: all above subject to revision based on collected information from data acquisition, verification, monitoring (DVM)


Analysis1. Comes into play as problem formulation is completed2. Most important part characterization of ecosystem(s) of

concern3. Composed of five subunits



1. Ecosystem Characterization• Often difficult to perform because

– Ecosystem no longer there?– Boundaries?– Climate changes?– Biotic interactions?



2. Stressor characteristics and evaluation of relevant effects

• Chemical properties?• Toxicity?• Usually evaluate from published data • May do own tests but expensive only do if absolutely

necessary



3. Analisis Paparan

• Determine environmental concentration

– Difficult end of pipe biotransformation media heterogeneity now how much toxic stuff is there?

– Non-point sources can be even more difficult

• Where to measure?

• When to measure?



4. Ecological response analysis• Most difficult stage of ERA because as test system becomes

more environmentally realistic the ability to accurately predict effects decreases

• Can use– Toxicity data– Microcosms– Field data/observations– Etc.



5. Stressor/response analysis• Analogous to dose/response but using single species

toxicity to extrapolate to population/community level responses

• Have to take other (natural) stressors into account


Dose Response Analysis

http://www.scoop.it/t/apes-human-hazards530/p/1354681905/dose-response-analysis


KARAKTERISASI RISIKO• Final stage of an ERA• Combines ecological effect and environmental

concentration to provide likelihood of effects given distribution of stressor within ecosystem

• Composed of two parts:



1. ESTIMASI RISIKOA. Integration

1) Integrate exposure with toxicity2) Use quotient method of estimating

environmental riskB. Uncertainty analysis – how much

confidence (certainty) in data/information

1) Can have formal mathematical analysis or informal “best guess” analysis


2. DESKRIPSI RISIKO

• Ecological risk summary – “what are the potential effects and do I believe

them?

• Interpretation of ecological significance– “how big a problem is this really going to be”


Quotient MethodQuotient = Expected environmental concentration Concentration producing an unacceptable

environmental effect

Quotient Risk>1 Potential of

high risk

~1 Potential risk

<< 1 Low risk



Discussion between Risk Assessor and Risk Manager

1. Report from risk assessor to risk manager2. Risk manager may take information and perform a

risk/benefit analysis



Discussion between Risk Assessor and Risk Manager

1. Report from risk assessor to risk manager2. Risk manager may take information and perform a

risk/benefit analysis is the economic benefit worth the environmental cost?

3. Report may generate multiple vituperative displays of acrimony among interested parties



MANAJEMEN RISIKO1. Manage risk taking environmental, social, economic effects

into account2. Management usually implemented in the form of policy and

legislation



Monitor Results1. Usually need to implement an on-going monitoring plan to

determine if management objectives are being met2. Often not performed as extensively as necessary until a

problem arises



Diunduh dari: www.ess.co.at/TEACHING/FTP/GEO12.ppt ...... 6/1/2013

RISK ASSESSMENT

AND MANAGEMENT

http://www.ess.co.at/TEACHING/FTP/GEO12.ppt

http://www.ess.co.at/TEACHING/FTP/GEO12.ppt

RISIKO ITU APA ?

the probability

the probability

the probability of incurring a loss or injury

the probability of incurring a loss or injury

TIPE-TIPE RISIKO

• voluntary or involuntary• high-probability, low-consequence• low-probability, high-consequence• individual or societal• environmental or technological

• voluntary or involuntary• high-probability, low-consequence• low-probability, high-consequence• individual or societal• environmental or technological

1. Inactive (ignore it)2. Reactive (abatement)3. Interactive (management)4. Proactive (planning)

1. Inactive (ignore it)2. Reactive (abatement)3. Interactive (management)4. Proactive (planning)

TIPE-TIPE PENGELOLAAN RISIKO

1. Risk assessment and planning: identify, forecast, analyse, plan

2. Operational risk abatement: detect, diagnose, correct

1. Risk assessment and planning: identify, forecast, analyse, plan

2. Operational risk abatement: detect, diagnose, correct

TIPE-TIPE MANAJEMEN RISIKO

A Gaming approach:• probability of winning,• amount to win,• probability of losing,• amount to lose.

A Gaming approach:• probability of winning,• amount to win,• probability of losing,• amount to lose.

MENGESTIMASI RISIKO

Expected value: probability of loss or damage magnitude of the loss

Vexp = p(D) * V(D)

Expected value: probability of loss or damage magnitude of the loss

Vexp = p(D) * V(D)

MENGESTIMASI RISIKO

Some problems:• risk is about the unexpected: this

means large inherent uncertainties• low probability means little data• insurance can be expensive, consider

the opportunity costs

Some problems:• risk is about the unexpected: this

means large inherent uncertainties• low probability means little data• insurance can be expensive, consider

the opportunity costs

MENGESTIMASI RISIKO

• floods and droughts• hurricanes, typhoons• earthquakes, tsunamis• mudslides, avalanches• forest fires• toxic fumes (Cameroon)• climate change, sea level rise

• floods and droughts• hurricanes, typhoons• earthquakes, tsunamis• mudslides, avalanches• forest fires• toxic fumes (Cameroon)• climate change, sea level rise

RISIKO LINGKUNGAN

Flood Risk Assessment indicators, methods and datasets

Diunduh dari: ….. 8/1/2013

• fires and explosions• toxic chemicals release - from process plants - from transportation accidents• oil spills• nuclear accidents

• fires and explosions• toxic chemicals release - from process plants - from transportation accidents• oil spills• nuclear accidents

RISIKO TEKNOLOGIS

1. dioxin release (Seveso, 1976)2. gas explosion (Mexico, 1984)3. methylisocyanate (Bhopal, 1984)4. toxic spill (River Rhine, 1986)5. Chernobyl (reactor meltdown)6. Amocco Cadiz , Exxon Valdez7. (Oils spills)

1. dioxin release (Seveso, 1976)2. gas explosion (Mexico, 1984)3. methylisocyanate (Bhopal, 1984)4. toxic spill (River Rhine, 1986)5. Chernobyl (reactor meltdown)6. Amocco Cadiz , Exxon Valdez7. (Oils spills)

RISIKO TEKNOLOGIS

• Leadership and Administration• Management and Training• Job Analysis and Procedures• Emergency Preparedness• Accident/Incident Analysis• Employee Training• Safety and Protective Equipment

• Leadership and Administration• Management and Training• Job Analysis and Procedures• Emergency Preparedness• Accident/Incident Analysis• Employee Training• Safety and Protective Equipment

KEAMANAN INDUSTRI

FASILITAS TANGGAP-DARURAT

• Plant Emergency Organization• Plant Risk Evaluation• Area Risk Evaluation• Notification Procedures, Communication• Emergency Equipment and Facilities• Procedure for return to normal operations






Plant Risk Evaluation• quantities, locations, and storage

conditions of hazardous materials• properties of materials (MSD sheets)• location of isolation valves• fire fighting procedures• special handling requirements

Plant Risk Evaluation• quantities, locations, and storage

conditions of hazardous materials• properties of materials (MSD sheets)• location of isolation valves• fire fighting procedures• special handling requirements

Plant risk evaluationSite data base includes basic administrative,

technical, regulatory and safety relevant information: hazardous chemicals safety response plans and equipment

Site data base includes basic administrative, technical, regulatory

and safety relevant information: hazardous chemicals safety response plans and equipment

Plant risk evaluation

Hazardous chemicals data base includes substance identification data (names, synonyms, CAS, UN number), physical, chemical, and toxicological properties, associates production processes and waste streams.

Hazardous chemicals data base includes substance identification data (names, synonyms, CAS, UN number), physical, chemical, and toxicological properties, associates production processes and waste streams.

Facility Emergency Response• Plant Emergency Organization• Plant Risk Evaluation• Area Risk Evaluation• Notification Procedures, Communication• Emergency Equipment and Facilities• Procedure for return to normal operations


Area Risk Evaluation• hazardous materials at nearby plants• nearby residences, population centers including

schools, hospitals, nursing homes (evacuation procedures)

• contacts at other sites (names, phone)• notification procedures

Area Risk Evaluation• hazardous materials at nearby plants• nearby residences, population centers including

schools, hospitals, nursing homes (evacuation procedures)

• contacts at other sites (names, phone)• notification procedures

a spatial approach:• evaluates the vulnerability of a

geographical area, its population and environment to technological risks (e.g., hazardous materials release from process plants or transportation accidents)

a spatial approach:• evaluates the vulnerability of a

geographical area, its population and environment to technological risks (e.g., hazardous materials release from process plants or transportation accidents)

ANALISIS BAHAYA

Has a hazards analysis been completed for this area ?

When was it last updated ?Does the analysis include the location,

type, and amount of hazardous materials manufactured, processed, stored, disposed within the area ?

Has a hazards analysis been completed for this area ?

When was it last updated ?Does the analysis include the location,

type, and amount of hazardous materials manufactured, processed, stored, disposed within the area ?

ANALISIS BAHAYA: CHECKLIST

Does it include transportation routes of hazardous materials ?

Have areas of public health concern be identified ?

Have sensitive environmental areas been identified ?

Does it include transportation routes of hazardous materials ?

Have areas of public health concern be identified ?

Have sensitive environmental areas been identified ?


Have historical data on accidents been collected and analyzed ?

Have levels of vulnerability been identified for different areas ?

Are environmentally sensitive areas and population centers included in plant and transportation risk assessment ?

Have historical data on accidents been collected and analyzed ?

Have levels of vulnerability been identified for different areas ?

Are environmentally sensitive areas and population centers included in plant and transportation risk assessment ?


simulation of atmospheric dispersion of toxic substances from transportation or process plant accidents.

uses local geographical, land use, and and population data to estimate exposure and simulate evacuation plans.

simulation of atmospheric dispersion of toxic substances from transportation or process plant accidents.

uses local geographical, land use, and and population data to estimate exposure and simulate evacuation plans.

CONTOH APLIKASI

• simulation of aquatic spills of toxics.• uses chemical properties together with

hydrological data, estimates the concentration of the chemical along the

river and over time. Can use an embedded expert system to estimate environmental damage.

• simulation of aquatic spills of toxics.• uses chemical properties together with

hydrological data, estimates the concentration of the chemical along the

river and over time. Can use an embedded expert system to estimate environmental damage.

CONTOH APLIKASI

Risk Planning: Regulatory frameworks

• safety audits, regular inspections• chemicals registry• waste management• transportation safety• emergency planning• zoning

• safety audits, regular inspections• chemicals registry• waste management• transportation safety• emergency planning• zoning

Disaster Preparedness - conducts hazard vulnerability studies, provides Disaster Planning and preparedness for response and

recovery.

Diunduh dari: http://www.gobroomecounty.com/files/e911/Images/Emergency%20Management.jpg ….. 8/1/2013

Risk contours around a plant location: 10-6 events/year unacceptable individual risk

10-8 events/year negligible risk

Risk contours around a plant location: 10-6 events/year unacceptable individual risk

10-8 events/year negligible risk

PENDUGAAN RISIKO

Risk levels (the Dutch perspective)

10-4 events/year: voluntarily accepted in daily life10-5 events/year: maximum tolerable total involuntary risk10-6 events/year: unacceptable involuntary from a single source10-8 events/year: negligible risk

Risk levels (the Dutch perspective)

10-4 events/year: voluntarily accepted in daily life10-5 events/year: maximum tolerable total involuntary risk10-6 events/year: unacceptable involuntary from a single source10-8 events/year: negligible risk

PENDUGAAN RISIKO

Assigning a Risk LevelRisk assessment is typically done through the use of simple and intuitive risk

maps such as the one illustrated below. These maps can be used to analyze, by risk, the likelihood of occurrence and the impact it may have on

the business objectives. The plotting of each risk according to these two attributes provides management with a risk rating (Red, Yellow, Green). The

placement of the risk in either one of these zones will dictate or guide management's action plans.

Diunduh dari: http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/ae-ve/irm-gir/guide-eng.htm ….. 8/1/2013

http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/ae-ve/irm-gir/images/guide4_e.jpg

• Hazard identification• Accident frequency and consequence

estimation• Risk calculation• Risk reduction and acceptability

• Hazard identification• Accident frequency and consequence

estimation• Risk calculation• Risk reduction and acceptability

PROSEDUR ANALISIS RISIKO

Hazard Identification (HAZID)• Process/system checklist• Safety review• Preliminary Hazard Analysis• Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)• Hazard and Operability Analysis (HAZOP)• Systematic Identification of Release Points

Hazard Identification (HAZID)• Process/system checklist• Safety review• Preliminary Hazard Analysis• Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)• Hazard and Operability Analysis (HAZOP)• Systematic Identification of Release Points


Frequency and Consequence Estimation:• Fault tree• Event tree• Cause Consequence Diagram• Generic Reliability Database

Frequency and Consequence Estimation:• Fault tree• Event tree• Cause Consequence Diagram• Generic Reliability Database


Diunduh dari: http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/current/lectures/kling/water_nitro/water_nitro.html ….. 8/1/2013

Diagram of the pathways and reactions leading to the formation of acid rain in our atmosphere.


Fault tree analysis: run-away reaction due to cooling failure

Fault tree analysis: run-away reaction due to cooling failure

Failure of:1. heating system2. sensor3. shutdown system4. cooling system5. safety valve

Failure of:1. heating system2. sensor3. shutdown system4. cooling system5. safety valve


Event tree: traces possible events from loss of cooling to: Safe shutdown; Discharge from safety valve ; Explosion.

Event tree: traces possible events from loss of cooling to: Safe shutdown; Discharge from safety valve ; Explosion.


Every event A has possible outcome C (with probability: p) and B (1-p) depending on failure probability

Every event A has possible outcome C (with probability: p) and B (1-p) depending on failure probability


Consequences:• discharge (flow, evaporation)• fire: jet, pool/tank, flash, fireball• explosion and release:

– unconfined vapor cloud (UVCE)– boiling liquid expanding vapor

explosion (BLEVE)– physical explosion– runaway reaction explosion– dust gas/dust mixture explosion

Consequences:• discharge (flow, evaporation)• fire: jet, pool/tank, flash, fireball• explosion and release:

– unconfined vapor cloud (UVCE)– boiling liquid expanding vapor

explosion (BLEVE)– physical explosion– runaway reaction explosion– dust gas/dust mixture explosion


Diunduh dari: www.sawa2006.com/.../23%20-...…….. 6/1/2013

HUMAN HEALTH

RISK ASSESSMENT

PENDUGAAN RISIKO LINGKUNGAN

Dr. Atallah RabiDepartment of Public Health

Faculty of MedicineJordan University of Science & Technology

Define the elements of RA Understand the types of

information needed for each element of RA

Describe how Env. Hazards can be identified

Describe Dose – Response association

Describe direct & indirect approaches of EA

Describe potential errors in Env, Sampling

BASIC PRINCIPLE OF HUMAN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT

Risk is a Function of Exposure and Toxicity.

The Toxicity of a Chemical and the Potential for Exposure to that Chemical are Equal Partners in Risk

Assessment . Examples: A substance may be very Toxic to

humans, but without Exposure to that substance, there is little if any Risk (e.g., Arsenic kept in a glass jar).

Also, one may be Exposed to large amounts of a substance, but if the substance has a low Toxicity,

there is minimal Risk (e.g., Water in a swimming pool).

• The process of evaluating possible effects, on people, as a result of exposure to environmental hazards

• The study of the relationship between environmental hazards and the health of the exposed population

PENDUGAAN RISIKO

1. Anticipate the Potential for Risk 2. Recognize and Identify the Hazard3. Evaluate the Hazard4. Recommend Ways to Control and Manage

the Risk to Acceptable Levels

UNSUR-UNSUR PENDUGAAN RISIKO

BASIC PRINCIPLE OF HUMAN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT

Risk is a Function of Exposure and Toxicity.The Toxicity of a Chemical and the Potential for Exposure to that Chemical are Equal Partners in Risk Assessment . Examples: A substance may be very Toxic to humans, but without Exposure to that substance, there is little if any Risk (e.g., Arsenic kept in a glass jar). Also, one may be Exposed to large amounts of a substance, but if the substance has a low Toxicity, there is minimal Risk (e.g., Water in a swimming pool).

Risk assessments are based on a number of assumptions:

Assumption 1: Humans can manage the environment by deciding how much damage the earth and humans can absorb without causing harm. Scientists call this the "assimilative capacity" when talking about the earth or the "threshold level" or "no effect level" when talking about the human body. According to this assumption, scientists can reliably determine how much of any harmful chemical the earth or human body can safely assimilate or absorb without causing harm.

Assumption 2: Once a system's "assimilative capacity" has been determined, then we can and will see to it that no greater exposure is permitted to occur. We will set limits (regulations) river by river, factory by factory, chemical by chemical, neighborhood by neighborhood.

Assumption 3: We already know which practices and substances are harmful and which are not; or, in the case of practices and substances that we never suspected of being harmful, we will be warned of their possible dangers by traumatic but sub lethal shocks that alert us to the danger before it is too late.

HAKEKAT PENDUGAAN RISIKO

1. A Risk Assessment Compares the Predicted Human Exposure vs. the Established Exposure Limit for a Substance.

2. The Lower the Exposure in Comparison to its Exposure Limit, the Lower the Associated Risk from the Substance.

UNSUR-UNSUR PENDUGAAN RISIKO

Anticipation Recognition Evaluation

Effect/Dose = Dose-ResponseDose = Exposure

Control is NOT an element

PENDUGAAN PAPARAN

Three Different Areas of Potential Human Exposure to a New Substance Must be Evaluated:1. Potential for Inhalation of Vapors

2. Potential for Absorption thru Skin3. Potential Ingestion of the

Substance either Intentionally or by Accident.

• Metode Langsung– Personal monitoring– Biological monitoring

• Metode tidak-langsung– Environmental monitoring– Questionnaires– Models

• Direct measurement Respiratory System exposure: – Personal Air Monitoring Devises provide direct

measurement of concentrations of air contaminants

• Direct measurement of Digestive system exposure:– Water, food and soil samples

• Direct measurement of Skin Exposure:– Using skin batches– Determining the effectiveness of gloves in protecting

the skin

PEMANTAUAN PERSONAL

1. Area sampling and measurement of concentration2. Personal air sampling to determine dose3. Blood levels to determine dose4. A marker effect such as free erythrocyte

protoporphyrine (FEP) in blood5. BM measures induced variations in absorption,

metabolism, and response to En Agents.6. A biological marker of effect must be a measurable,

biochemical, physiological or other alteration within organism that has the potential to cause disease.

PEMANTAUAN BIOLOGIS

Useful markers of exposures

Substance

• Carbon monoxide• Lead• Pentachloropenol

(PCP)• Alcoholic beverages• Volatile organics

(VOCs)

Biological marker

• COHb in blood• Pb in blood• PCP in urine• Ethanol in exhaled air• VOCs in exhaled air

Perhitungan asupan harian kronis

CDI = Cm x Im x EF x ED ————————

BW x AT

where:CDI = chronic daily intake (mg/kg/day)Cm = concentration in affected media (e.g., mg/L)Im = intake of affected media (e.g., L/day)

EF = exposure frequency, days/yearED = exposure duration, yearsBW = body weight, kgAT = averaging time, days

Menghitung Asupan dnegan INHILASI

EFI = (C X IR X EF)/BWEFI = Estimated dose through inhalation (mg/kg/day)C = Concentration in air (mg/m3)IR = Inhalation Rate (m3/day)EF = Exposure factor (frequency of exposure over a life

time)BW = Body weight (Kg)

FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PAPARAN KULIT

1. Surface area exposed2. Part of body exposed3. Length of contact4. Concentration of chemical on skin5. chemical permeability to skin6. Type of material through which chemical comes with skin

(water, soil, or oil).7. Skin condition when in contact with chemical

Calculating Intake via Ingestion and Skin Absorption

Ingestion EDI = (C x IgR x EF) / BWSkin absorp. (H2O) EDI = (C x P x SA xET x EF) / BWSkin absorp. (soil) EDI = (C x A x BF x EF) / BW

C = concentration IgR = Ingestion rate (lit/day)P = Permeability factor SA = Surface area exposedET= Exposure time EF = Exposure factorBW = body weight (kg) A = Total soil adheredBF = Bioavailability Factor (% of chemical in soil actually free to move out of soil

and through skin).

Penggunaan Model Dosis-Respons dalam pendugaan Risiko Karsinogenik

A: Dose-response curve for nonthreshold model;

B: calculating the slope of the dose-response curve;

C: dose estimate determines the risk estimate;

D: “acceptable” response determines the “safe” dose.

A C

B D

Dose, mg/kg/day Dose, mg/kg/day

Dose, mg/kg/day Dose, mg/kg/day

Resp

on

se

Resp

on

se

Resp

on

se

Resp

on

se

Slope is rise/run . . . with units 1/(mg/kg/day)

risk estimate

dose estimate

“acceptable”response

“safe” dose

A: Dose-response curve for threshold model;

B: using NOAEL to determine the “safe” dose;

C: actual dose is compared with the safe dose (acceptable);

D: actual dose is compared with the safe dose (unacceptable).

A

B

C

D

Dose, mg/kg/day

Dose, mg/kg/day

Dose, mg/kg/day

Dose, mg/kg/day

Resp

on

se

Resp

on

se

Resp

on

se

Resp

on

se

Modifying factors are applied to the NOAEL . . .

. . . to determine the “safe” dose.

NOAEL

NOAEL

“Safe” dose

8-hr TWA > PEL

“Safe” dose

“Safe” dose

actual dose

actual dose

Penggunaan Model Dosis-Respons dalam pendugaan Risiko Non-Karsinogenik

Improved Exposure Assessment Shrinks Error Bands

A: Dose and risk estimates are conservative; B: shrinking the error bands around the exposure

estimate reduces the risk estimate.

Resp

on

se

newestimate

Resp

on

se

high

mean

mean high estimate

mean high estimate

Dose, mg/kg/day

Dose, mg/kg/day

A B

• RC synthesizes the 3 components of RA1. Hazard Identification2. Dose – Response Assessment 3. Exposure Assessment• It estimates the incidence and severity

of potential adverse effects.

KARAKTERISASI RISIKO

1. Exposure = pollutant conc./exposure duration

2. Dose = Exposure X dose factors (absorption rate, inhalation rate), body weight or surface area

3. Lifetime individual risk = dose X RC factor (noncarcinogenic threshold e.g. NOEL

or severity e.g. NOAEL with uncertainty factors.

4. Risk to exposed population = Individual risk X # of exposed population (consider age, susceptibility..etc)

KARAKTERISASI RISIKO KESEHATAN

EXPOSURE EQUATION• Total exposure (estimated directly or indirectly) • Duration of exposure (depends on health effects)

– For carcinogenic effects:• Total hrs or days of exp over lifetime (exp every day would be

25550 dys/lifetime or 70 yrs)– For non-carcinogenic effects:

• Short term of exp with high concentration• Chronic exp. Concentration is low and constant over life time

• Exposure period for children:– 3 Exposure periods (sig difference in body wt, IR & EF):

• 0 – 6 months• 6 months – 5 years• 5 – 12 years

DOSE EQUATION

• Dosimetry factors• Dose (mg/kg/day over a life time) include

exposure from all media– Air– Water– Food– Soil– Skin contact

Efek Kesehatan Akibat Paparan Lingkungan1. Premature death of many individuals2. Premature death of any individual3. Severe acute illness or major disability4. Chronic debilitating disease5. Minor disability6. Discomfort7. Behavioral changes8. Temporary emotional effects9. Minor physiological change

Key Concepts - Toxicity (hazard)Measures of toxicity are a function of two factors:

1. Dose (how much)2. Duration (how long)

The shorter the exposure, the greater the dose needed to get an effectResults of toxicity tests expressed as a concentration and exposure period (eg. 48h LC50)Also related to a particular exposure media (eg seawater, sediment, etc) .

Diunduh dari: http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/aquaculture/consultations/2012/PMRA-ARLA-eng.htm

Tolerable DI of selected chemicalsOn-carcinogen• Copper• Endrin• Lead

• Mercury: Methyl HgTotal Hg

• Tin

Tolerable daily intake (DI)• 0.05 – 0.5 mg/kg/day• 1.0 g/kg/day• Adults 7.14 g/kg/day• Infants 3.57 g/kg/day• 0.47 g/kg/day• 0.71 g/kg/day• 2 mg/kg/day

EXPOSURE LIMITS IN RISK ASSESSMENT

• Toxicity Testing is Done on a Substance in Order to Determine the Hazard which the Substance may Present to Humans.

• Based on its Toxicity Profile, Exposure Limits are Established for the Substance.

Selected Standard Default Exposure Factors

Land Exposure Daily Intake Exposure Exposure BodyUse Pathway Rate Frequency DurationWeight

Residential ingestion of 2 L 350 days/year 30 years 70 kg

portable water

ingestion of soil 200 mg (child) 350 days/year 6 years 15 kg (child)

and dust 100 mg (adult) 24 years 70 kg (adult)

inhalation of 20 m3 (total) 350 days/year 30 years 70 kg

contaminants 15 m3 (indoor)

Industrial ingestion of 1 L 250 days/year 25 years 70 kg

potable water

ingestion of soil 50 mg 250 days/year 25 years 70 kg

and dust

inhalation of 200 m3/workday250 days/year 25 years 70 kg

contaminants

Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund, Vol. I, Supplemental Guidance, “Standard Default

Exposure Factors” (Pub. 9285.6–03). Washington, DC: EPA, 1991.

• Use of an exp. Study using inappropriate route of exposure

• Poor specification of Exp. In experimental studies• Extrapolation high dose to low-dose situations• Difference in age & life style between experiment and

risk groups• Exposure to multiple hazards in epidemiological studies• Potential confounding factors

SUMBER KESALAHAN DALAM PENDUGAAN RISIKO

Limitations of Risk Assessment and Risk-Benefit Analysis

• Risk assessment has many built-in uncertainties and limitations

• Risk assessment depends on toxicology assessment that have scientific and economic limitations

• Each additional step in risk assessment and related risk-benefit analysis also has uncertainties and economic limitations

PERTANYAAN KUNCI DALAM PENDUGAAN RISIKO

• How reliable are risk assessment data and models?• Who profits from allowing certain levels of harmful

chemicals into the environment, and who suffers? Who decides this?

• Should estimates emphasize short-term risks, or should more weight be put on long term risks? Who should make this decision?

• Should the primary goal of risk analysis be to determine how much risk is acceptable or to figure out how to do the least damage?

• Who should do a particular risk-benefit analysis or risk assessment, and who should review the results? A government agency? Independent scientists? The public?

1. Some see risk analysis as a useful and much-needed tool such as a method in discovering cancer deaths per year from pollutants.

2. Critics argue that the emphasis should shift from determining acceptable risk levels to trying to reduce the risks as much as possible

3. Those critics also accuse industries of favoring risk analysis because so little is known about health risks from pollutants and because the data that do exist are controversial

4. Result is that risk assessment and risk-benefit analysis can be made to support almost any conclusion.

KONTROVERSI ANALISIS RISIKO

Calculation of Risk-Based Water Concentration of Benzene

TR = SFO x C x IRW x EF x EDBW x AT

C = TR x BW x AT—————————SFO x IRW x EF x ED

C = 10-5 x 70 kg x 25,550 days—————————————0.029 mg/kg/day x 2 L/day x 350 days/year x 30 years

= 0.03 mg/L

where

TR = target excess individual lifetime cancer risk, unitless, 10-5

SFO = oral cancer slope factor, mg/kg/dayC = concentration, mg/L

IRW =daily water ingestion rate, L/dayEF = exposure frequency, 350 days/yearED = exposure duration, 30 yearsBW = body weight, 70 kgAT = averaging time of 70 years, expressed as 25,550 days

Basic Contents of RA ProcessAny acceptable risk assessment process must contain the following

elements:1. The risk assessment must be concerned with the health problems

that are experienced by the community. A risk assessment for cancer because that is what the experts know how to do is not acceptable when miscarriages are the problem.

2. The risk assessment must take into account exposure to multiple chemicals, which is the real-life situation.

3. The risk assessment must take into account the chemicals that the community is exposed to in food, air, water, soil, and on the job. The risk assessments must be additive at the very least.

4. The risk assessment must take into account the most susceptible parts of the community: the pregnant woman, the babies and children, the elderly, the already sick.

• Once an assessment of risk is made, decision must be made about what to do about the risk.

• Risk management includes the administrative, political, and economic actions taken to decide whether and how to reduce a particular societal risk to a certain level and at what cost.

BAGAIMANA MENGELOLA RISIKO ?

KETERLIBATAN PENGELOLAAN RISIKO

1. Which of the vast number of risks facing society should be evaluated and managed and in what order or priority with the limited funds available

2. How reliable the risk-benefit analysis or risk assessment performed for each risk is

3. Which of the vast number of risks facing society should be evaluated and managed and in what order or priority with the limited funds available

Manajemen Risiko

4. How reliable the risk-benefit analysis or risk assessment performed for each risk is

5. How much risk is acceptable6. How much money it will take to reduce each risk to an

acceptable level7. How much each risk will be reduced if available funds are

limited8. How the risk management plan will be communicated to

the public, monitored, and enforced

Risk Mitigation1. Measure(s) which can be used to limit exposure

will help decrease risk2. No or limited exposure, no or limited potential for

effects3. Conditions/restrictions for registrations

1. Application rates2. Frequency of application3. Timing of application4. Method of application5. PPE6. Type of Product Registration (eg: Restricted)

Diunduh dari: http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/aquaculture/consultations/2012/PMRA-ARLA-eng.htm

Bgm kita menerima Risiko?The public generally sees a technology or a product as being riskier

than experts do when:

1. It is new or complex rather than familiar2. It is perceived as being mostly involuntary3. It is viewed as unnecessary rather than as beneficial or necessary4. The people affected are not involved in the decision-making

process from start to finish5. Its use does not involve a sincere search for and evaluation of

alternatives6. Usually, our perceptions of risk and our responses to perceived

risks often have little to do with how risky Most people do poorly in assessing relative risks from the hazards that surround us and society.

7. However, the most important good news each year is that about 99.1% of the people on the earth the experts say something is.

Bgm kita menerima Risiko?

8. Better education and communication about the nature of risks will help bring the public’s perceptions of various risks closer to those of professional risk evaluators

9. However, such education will not eliminate the emotional, cultural, and ethical factors that decision makers must take into account in determining the acceptability of a particular risk and in evaluating the possible alternatives.

HASIL-HASILPENELITIAN

METODE ERA

. Environmental risk assessment for pesticides: A tool for decision making

Antonio Finizio , Sara VillaEnvironmental Impact Assessment Review. Volume 22, Issue 3, May 2002, Pages

235–248

Pesticides are widely used to protect crops and to prevent disease. However, they can also be the cause of environmental

pollution.

Today, ecological policy and management decision makers in many countries (i.e. EU) require sound scientific information on

the environmental risk associated with pesticides in order to base and justify their decisions.

Consequently, there is a need to develop predictive tools to evaluate all potential risks of environmental damage that might be

caused by the use of plant protection products.

This paper analyses and discusses the risk assessment approach applied in the field of pesticides. The link between environmental

policy, risk assessment and risk management will also be highlighted.

Diunduh dari: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195925502000021………. 6/1/2013

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/01959255/22/3



235–248

Relationship between risk assessment and risk management (modified from McDonald and Vandenberg, 1998).


Manajemen Risiko

Pendugaan Risiko


http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195925502000021



235–248

A risk assessment framework (from US EPA, 1996).


Perencanaan (Dialog asesor risiko dengan

Manajer risiko)

Pendugaan Risiko Ekologis

Formulasi Masalah


Mengkomunikasikan hasil kepada Manajer Risiko

Manajemen Risiko

Karakterisasi Efek Ekologis

Karakterisasi Paparan





235–248

. Scheme of the procedure for evaluating environmental risk distribution on the territory by integrating risk assessment procedures and GIS

(modified from Calliera et al., 1999).


Risiko Ekotoksikologis untuk ekosistem non-target

Data toksikologis untuk organisme

hidup

Sifat Fisika-Kimia

Dosis aplikasiData Aplikasi

Karakterisasi Ekosistem




Linking marine fisheries to environmental objectives: a case study on seafloor integrity under European maritime policies

Heino O. Fock , Matthias Kloppmann , Vanessa StelzenmüllerEnvironmental Science & Policy. Volume 14, Issue 3, May 2011, Pages 289–300

Fisheries is regarded a significant impact to the marine environment, and the management of fisheries under maritime environmental policies will be an important task for the future.

A relative ecological risk model is applied to define risk components of gain and loss in relationship to 7 demersal fishing

métiers for the seafloor ecosystem in the German EEZ. Four scenarios are evaluated against the policy goals from

European maritime policies.

It is shown that two measures combined in an integrative assessment, i.e. effort reduction to MSY and areal closures, are

likely to meet requirements from 3 environmental policies, i.e. the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, the Habitats Directive, and

the Common Fisheries Policy.

Sustainability in terms of maximum sustainable yield for fisheries is likely to provide only partial improvement of the environmental

status of the marine ecosystem.

The implementation into the pressure-state-response framework of environmental management is discussed.

Diunduh dari: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901110001607 ………. 6/1/2013


Linking marine fisheries to environmental objectives: a case study on seafloor integrity under European maritime policies

Heino O. Fock , Matthias Kloppmann , Vanessa StelzenmüllerEnvironmental Science & Policy. Volume 14, Issue 3, May 2011, Pages 289–300

(A) Procedural steps for ecological risk assessment (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1998). (B) Formalizing PSR assessments (left) and the relative ecological risk assessment referring to the steps problem formulation, analysis and characterization. Some PSR models approach risk

models, so there is a transition from left to right. Note, that ecological state is not an integral part of the risk model, but for the PSR models.


Formulasi MasalahModel Konseptual:

Parameter - Indikator

Karakterisasi RisikoKriteria penerimaan Risiko

AnalisisKarakterisasi Paparan

Karakterisasi efek ekologis

Formulasi masalahPenetapan hasil pendugaan

Model KOnseptual



. Development of a geography-referenced regional exposure assessment tool for European rivers—GREAT-ER

T Feijtel , G Boeije , M Matthies , A Young , G Morris , , C Gandolfi, B Hansen , K Fox , E Matthijs , V Koch , R Schroder , G Cassani , D Schowanek , J Rosenblom

, M HoltJournal of Hazardous Materials. Volume 61, Issues 1–3, August 1998, Pages 59–65

The objective of the GREAT-ER project is to develop and validate a powerful and accurate aquatic chemical exposure prediction tool for use within the EU

environmental risk assessment schemes. Current techniques to estimate regional PECs use a generic multimedia `unit world'

approach and do not account for spatial and temporal variability in landscape characteristics, river flows and/or chemical emissions. Hence, the results are merely

applicable on a generic screening level since these models do not offer a realistic prediction of actual steady-state background concentrations. In addition, the default EU generic regional environment (EU Technical Guidance Documents, 1996) only allows treatment for 70% of the waste water mass loading, leaving 30% of mass

loading to this generic region untreated. A new database, model and software system will be developed to calculate the distribution of predicted environmental concentrations (PEC), both in space and

time, of down the drain chemicals in European surface waters on a river and catchment area level.

Data on dissolved oxygen, biological oxygen demand and ammonia will also be used to assess water quality and to provide data for calibration and validation. The

system will use Geographical Information Systems (GIS) for data storage and visualization, combined with simple mathematical models for prediction of chemical

fate.

Hydrological databases and models will be used to determine flow and dilution data. This refined exposure assessment tool should greatly enhance the accuracy of

current local and regional exposure estimation methods. The new exposure assessment methodology will integrate specific environmental information and be

worked out in a geographically-referenced framework, ultimately on a pan-European scale.

This research project is carried out on behalf of ECETOC, and sponsored by the Environmental Risk Assessment Steering Committee (ERASM) of the Association

Internationale de la Savonnerie, de la Détergence et des Produits d'Entretien (A.I.S.E.) and the Comité Européen de Agents de Surface et Intermédiares

Organiques (CESIO) in cooperation with the UK Environment Agency.



. Development of a geography-referenced regional exposure assessment tool for European rivers—GREAT-ER

T Feijtel , G Boeije , M Matthies , A Young , G Morris , , C Gandolfi, B Hansen , K Fox , E Matthijs , V Koch , R Schroder , G Cassani , D Schowanek , J Rosenblom

, M HoltJournal of Hazardous Materials. Volume 61, Issues 1–3, August 1998, Pages 59–65

. Refinement of generic regional exposure models by using actual discharge pathway, treatment and river flow data into account.



Development of a geography-referenced regional exposure assessment tool for European rivers—GREAT-ER

T Feijtel , G Boeije , M Matthies , A Young , G Morris , , C Gandolfi, B Hansen , K Fox , E Matthijs , V Koch , R Schroder , G Cassani , D Schowanek , J Rosenblom , M HoltJournal of Hazardous Materials. Volume 61, Issues 1–3, August 1998, Pages 59–65

Integration of the GREAT-ER methodology.


Model Hidrologis

Model Run off DAS

Pengolahan data spatial

Model Sungai(Perilaku/Kualitas)

Model Jalur-limbah(Perilaku/Kualitas)

Perhitungan & Visualisasi PEC (DAS, Sungai, Regional)

DemografiDebit

sungai

Tanah, landuse,

Iklim

Database DAS


. Ecological vulnerability in risk assessment — A review and perspectives

H.J. De Lange , S. Sala , M. Vighi , J.H. FaberScience of The Total Environment. Volume 408, Issue 18, 15 August 2010, Pages 3871–3879

This paper reviews the application of ecological vulnerability analysis in risk assessment and describes new developments in methodology.

For generic non-site-specific assessments (e.g. for the requirements of most European directives on dangerous chemicals) risk is characterised just on the basis of the ratio between an effect indicator and an exposure

indicator. However, when the actual risk for a specific ecosystem is desired, the concept of ecological vulnerability may be more appropriate.

This calls for a change in thinking, from sensitivity at the organism level to vulnerability at higher organization levels, and thus forms the link from

laboratory toxicology to field effects at population, community or ecosystem level. To do so, biological and ecological characteristics of the

ecosystems under concern are needed to estimate the ecological vulnerability.

In this review we describe different vulnerability analysis methods developed for populations (of a single species), communities (consisting

of different populations of species) and ecosystems (community and habitat combined). We also give some examples of methods developed for socio-ecological systems. Aspects that all methods share are the use of expert judgment, the input of stakeholders, ranking and mapping of the

results, and the qualitative nature of the results.

A new general framework is presented to guide future ecological vulnerability analysis. This framework can be used as part of ecological

risk assessment, but also in risk management. We conclude that the further quantification of ecological vulnerability is a valuable contribution to

vulnerability assessment.





Scales and type of stressors of the different vulnerability methods. Methods are abbreviated as in and .


Biosfer

Daratan

LanskapRegion

Ekosistem

Populasi

Organisme

Habitat / Komunitas

Ekologis Sosio-Ekologis




General framework for ecological vulnerability assessment for hazard or interaction of hazards. Bars on top indicate whether physico-chemical characteristics are the main determinant or biological characteristics or both. Environmental conditions

indicated with the bar below have an influence on all aspects, but are also influenced by the long-term impact.


Kondisi Lingkungan

Biologis

Fisiko-Kimia

Kerentanan

BahayaDampak jangka

panjang


. Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk assessment: a review

Ron van der Oost , Jonny Beyer , Nico P.E VermeulenEnvironmental Toxicology and Pharmacology. Volume 13, Issue 2, February 2003,

Pages 57–149

Fish bioaccumulation markers may be applied in order to elucidate the aquatic behavior of environmental contaminants, as bioconcentrators to identify certain substances with low water levels and to assess exposure

of aquatic organisms. Since it is virtually impossible to predict the fate of xenobiotic substances with simple partitioning models, the complexity of bioaccumulation should

be considered, including toxicokinetics, metabolism, biota-sediment accumulation factors (BSAFs), organ-specific bioaccumulation and bound residues. Since it remains hard to accurately predict bioaccumulation in fish, even with highly sophisticated models, analyses of tissue levels are

required. The most promising fish bioaccumulation markers are body burdens of persistent organic pollutants, like PCBs and DDTs. Since PCDD and

PCDF levels in fish tissues are very low as compared with the sediment levels, their value as bioaccumulation markers remains questionable.

Easily biodegradable compounds, such as PAHs and chlorinated phenols, do not tend to accumulate in fish tissues in quantities that reflect the exposure. Semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) have been successfully used to mimic bioaccumulation of hydrophobic organic

substances in aquatic organisms. In order to assess exposure to or effects of environmental pollutants on

aquatic ecosystems, the following suite of fish biomarkers may be examined: biotransformation enzymes (phase I and II), oxidative stress

parameters, biotransformation products, stress proteins, metallothioneins (MTs), MXR proteins, hematological parameters, immunological parameters, reproductive and endocrine parameters, genotoxic

parameters, neuromuscular parameters, physiological, histological and morphological parameters.





Pages 57–149

All fish biomarkers are evaluated for their potential use in ERA programs, based upon six criteria that have been proposed in the present paper. This

evaluation demonstrates that phase I enzymes (e.g. hepatic EROD and CYP1A), biotransformation products (e.g. biliary PAH metabolites),

reproductive parameters (e.g. plasma VTG) and genotoxic parameters (e.g. hepatic DNA adducts) are currently the most valuable fish

biomarkers for ERA.

The use of biomonitoring methods in the control strategies for chemical pollution has several advantages over chemical monitoring. Many of the biological measurements form the only way of integrating effects on a

large number of individual and interactive processes in aquatic organisms. Moreover, biological and biochemical effects may link the bioavailability of

the compounds of interest with their concentration at target organs and intrinsic toxicity.

The limitations of biomonitoring, such as confounding factors that are not related to pollution, should be carefully considered when interpreting

biomarker data. Based upon this overview there is little doubt that measurements of bioaccumulation and biomarker responses in fish from contaminated sites offer great promises for providing information that can

contribute to environmental monitoring programs designed for various aspects of ERA.





Pages 57–149

Schematic representation of the sequential order of responses to pollutant stress within a biological system. Modified from Bayne et al. (1985).






Pages 57–149

. The principal scheme of responses in organisms to the detrimental effects of pollutant exposure. Modified from McCarthy et al. (1991).






Pages 57–149

. he relationship among the components of the risk characterization stage of retrospective assessments based on the process of ecological epidemiology,

including their respective environmental monitoring methods.


Sumber Indikator Efek

Indikator Paparan

Monitoring Kimia

Sebab-sebab Lainnya

Metode Pemantauan Lingkungan

Faktor lingkungan yg memodifikasi

Kepekaan

Faktor lingkungan yg memodifikasi

Paparan

Bioakumulasi dan Monitoring efek biologis

Efek biologis, Pemantauan

kesehatan dan ekosistem




Pages 57–149

. Bioaccumulation model for aquatic organisms. KOC: sorption coefficient; BCF: bioconcentration factor; BSAF: biota-sediment accumulation factor; BMF:

biomagnification factor. C refers to a concentration and k to a rate constant. The subscripts S, W, F, B, EXC and MET refer to sediment, water, food, biota, excretion and metabolism, respectively. The digestible sediment fraction is considered to be

part of the food. Adapted from Van der Oost et al. (1996a).










Pages 57–149

Possible toxication and detoxification pathways of xenobiotic compounds: (1) direct toxic effect (A); (2) metabolic activation; (3) formation of a stable metabolite which may cause a toxic effect (C); (4)

detoxification. The reactive metabolite formed by bioactivation (2) may cause a toxic effect (B) through reaction with critical targets (5) or be detoxified through reaction with a protective agent

(6). Adapted from Timbrell (1991), slightly modified.


Efek Toksik

Ekskresi

SENYAWA ASING

Metabolit Stabil

Metabolit Stabil






Pages 57–149

Simplified presentation of the fate of xenobiotic compounds in the liver cell. Route I, a possible mechanism for detoxification or toxication, and route II, a possible

mechanism for enzyme induction. AhR, aryl hydrocarbon receptor; HSP90, 90 kDa heat shock protein; ARNT, Ah receptor nuclear translocator; DREs, dioxin

responsive elements; cyt P450s, cytochrome P450 isozymes; GSTs, glutathione S-transferases; UDPGTs, UDP-glucuronyl transferases.





Pages 57–149

A theoretical visualization of the relationships between ecological relevance and time-scales of pollutant-induced biomarker responses. Adapted from

Adams et al. (1989).






Pages 57–149

Linkage between P450 and other biochemical systems. This figure illustrates the complex interactions that are known to occur between biochemical

systems involved in responses to pollutant exposure. Further linkages remain to be discovered. AhR, Ah receptor; ALAS, δ-amino-levulinic acid

synthase; ARE, antioxidant responsive element (electrophilic response element); ARNT, Ah receptor nuclear translocator; BR, bilirubin; BV, biliverdin; CO, carbon monoxide; DRE, dioxin

responsive element; EH, epoxide hydrolase; GSH, glutathione; GST, glutathione S-transferase; HAH, halogenated aromatic hydrocarbon; HO, heme oxygenase; HQ, hydroquinone; HSF, heat

shock factor; HSP90, 90 kDa heat shock protein; HSRE, heat shock response element; M, metal; MRE, metal responsive element; MRF, metal response factor; MT, metallothionein; NO, nitric

oxide; NOS, nitric oxide synthase; cyt P450, cytochrome P450; PP, protoporphyrin; Q, quinone; QR, quinone reductase (a.k.a. DT-diaphorase); SOD, superoxide dismutase; SQ, semiquinone

radical; XRE, xenobiotic response element. Adapted from Stegeman and Hahn (1994)







Pages 57–149

The complexity of stress–response relationships. The dose–response paradigm, although necessarily simple for experimental practice, does not adequately account for the multiple, simultaneous stressors to which all species are subjected in natural

environments. Adapted from Power and McCarty (1997).


Stress - Cekaman



. Is there an environmental benefit from remediation of a contaminated site? Combined assessments of the risk reduction and

life cycle impact of remediationGitte Lemming , Julie C. Chambon , Philip J. Binning , Poul L. Bjerg.

Journal of Environmental Management. Volume 112, 15 December 2012, Pages 392–403

A comparative life cycle assessment is presented for four different management options for a trichloroethene-contaminated site with a

contaminant source zone located in a fractured clay till. The compared options are (i) long-term monitoring (ii) in-situ enhanced reductive dechlorination (ERD), (iii) in-situ chemical oxidation (ISCO) with

permanganate and (iv) long-term monitoring combined with treatment by activated carbon at the nearby waterworks.

The life cycle assessment included evaluation of both primary and secondary environmental impacts. The primary impacts are the local

human toxic impacts due to contaminant leaching into groundwater that is used for drinking water, whereas the secondary environmental impacts

are related to remediation activities such as monitoring, drilling and construction of wells and use of remedial amendments. The primary

impacts for the compared scenarios were determined by a numerical risk assessment and remedial performance model, which predicted the

contaminant mass discharge over time at a point of compliance in the aquifer and at the waterworks. The combined assessment of risk

reduction and life cycle impacts showed that all management options result in higher environmental impacts than they remediate, in terms of person equivalents and assuming equal weighting of all impacts. The

ERD and long-term monitoring were the scenarios with the lowest secondary life cycle impacts and are therefore the preferred alternatives.

However, if activated carbon treatment at the waterworks is required in the long-term monitoring scenario, then it becomes unfavorable because of

large secondary impacts. ERD is favorable due to its low secondary impacts, but only if leaching of vinyl chloride to the groundwater aquifer can be avoided. Remediation with ISCO caused the highest secondary

impacts and cannot be recommended for the site.


http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03014797/112/supp/C

. Is there an environmental benefit from remediation of a contaminated site? Combined assessments of the risk

reduction and life cycle impact of remediationGitte Lemming , Julie C. Chambon , Philip J. Binning , Poul L.

Bjerg.Journal of Environmental Management. Volume 112, 15 December 2012, Pages

392–403

Concept for combined evaluation of remedial performance, risk assessment and life cycle assessment. POC: Point of compliance. WW: Waterworks.






392–403

Location of the Sortebrovej site and water supply wells in Tommerup. The transect runs along the groundwater flow direction and shows the initial aqueous TCE

concentrations [μg/L] and the conceptual local geology and fracture setup used in the model. POC: Point of compliance for assessing groundwater quality criteria. The

point is located 100 m downstream of the site.






392–403

System boundaries of the life cycle assessment.






392–403

Model results showing the (a) contaminant mass in the treatment zone, (b) contaminant concentrations at the POC in the groundwater aquifer 100 m

downstream of the source (sum of TCE, DCE and VC), and (c) VC concentrations at 100 m. Note the different scales on the y-axes.






392–403

(a) Contaminant concentrations at the waterworks (sum of TCE, DCE and VC), and (b) Individual waterworks concentrations of TCE, DCE and VC for ERD (low rate).



. A priori assessment of ecotoxicological risks linked to building a hospital

Yves Perrodin , Bazin Christine , Bony Sylvie , Devaux Alain , Bertrand-Krajewski Jean-Luc , Cren-Olivé Cécile , Roch Audrey , Brelot Elodie.

Chemosphere. Volume 90, Issue 3, January 2013, Pages 1037–1046

Hospital wastewaters contain a large number of chemical pollutants such as disinfectants, detergents, and drug residues. A part of these pollutants is not eliminated by traditional urban waste water treatment plants, leading to a major risk for the aquatic ecosystems receiving these effluents. After having formulated a specific methodology in order to assessment

ecotoxicological risk for such a situation, we applied it to the project to build a new hospital shared by several towns in the

French Alps. This methodology is based on the ecotoxicological

characterisation of the hospital wastewater using a battery of three chronic bioassays (Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata,

Heterocypris incongruens and Brachionus calyciflorus) and of genotoxicity tests (Ames fluctuation assay on Salmonella

typhimurium, and a Fpg-modified comet assay on the trout liver cell line RTL-W1).

The formulated methodology highlights a moderate risk of the hospital wastewater for the organisms of the water column of the

river concerned. Nevertheless, this discharge contributes significantly to the global ecotoxicological risk when taking into

account all the releases of the watershed into the river. This leads to recommending the implementation of a specific

treatment system in the urban WWTP, or upstream to it, in view to protecting the aquatic organisms.






General diagram of ecological risk assessment (US EPA, 1998).







Presentation of the studied scenario. With: S: Source of pollution studied (hospital effluent), C1: Environmental target no. 1 to be preserved (river), C2: Environmental target no. 2 to be preserved (groundwater). T1, T2 and T3: Transfers of pollutants

between the source and the environmental targets.






Conceptual model of the scenario studied.



Secondary Poisoning Risk Assessment of Birds and Mammals Exposed to Nickel in Their Diets

The conceptual approach to conducting the environment section of the EU risk assessment of nickel included the following steps :

1. Emmissions of nickel and nickel compounds to the environment were quantified for the whole life cycle, i.e., from production, use, and disposal;

2. Concentrations of nickel resulting from these emissions were determined in relevant environmental media (water, sediment, soil, tissue) at local and regional scales (PECs);

3. Critical effects concentrations (PNECs) were determined for each of the relevant environmental media;

4. Exposure concentrations were compared to critical effects concentrations for each of the relevant environmental media (risk characterization); and

5. Appropriate corrective actions (also described as risk management) were identified for situations where exposure concentrations were greater than critical effects concentrations. Where exposure concentrations were below critical effects concentrations, there was no need for concern or action.

Diunduh dari: http://www.nipera.org/en/EnvironmentalScience/FS6-SecondaryPoisoningBirdsMammals.aspx ………. 6/1/2013

Secondary Poisoning Risk Assessment of Birds and Mammals Exposed to Nickel in Their Diets

Schematic overview of the different stepsinvolved in the EU environmental risk assessment

Diunduh dari: http://www.nipera.org/en/EnvironmentalScience/FS6-SecondaryPoisoningBirdsMammals.aspx ………. 6/1/2013

Zhen Chen, Sukulpat Khumpaisal, (2009) "AN ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS FOR RISKS ASSESSMENT IN

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT", Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Vol. 27 Iss: 3, pp.238 - 258

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a novel decision-making approach to risks assessment in commercial real estate

development against social, economic, environmental, and technological (SEET) criteria. It therefore aims to describe a

multiple criteria decision-making model based on analytic network process (ANP) theory, and to use an experimental case study on

an urban regeneration project in Liverpool to demonstrate the effectiveness of the ANP model.

The paper commences with a description about risks related to commercial real estate development, and provides a list of risk

assessment criteria based on literature review and experience in related areas. The ANP is then introduced as a powerful

multicriteria decision-making method. An experimental case study is finally conducted with scenarios and assumptions based on a

real urban regeneration project in Liverpool.

The paper defines a group of risks assessment criteria against SEET requirements directly related to commercial real estate

development. An ANP model is set up with 29 risks assessment criteria, and results from an experimental case study reveal that

the ANP method is effective to support decision-making based on risks assessment to select the most appropriate development

plan; and therefore it is applicable in commercial area.

Diunduh dari: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?articleid=1789800&show=html………. 6/1/2013

Zhen Chen, Sukulpat Khumpaisal, (2009) "AN ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS FOR RISKS ASSESSMENT IN COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

DEVELOPMENT", Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Vol. 27 Iss: 3, pp.238 - 258

Diunduh dari: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?articleid=1789800&show=html………. 6/1/2013