oktaufik - apcres 2013 - bali a.pdf

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M.A.M.OktaufikCenterforEnergyConveron&ConservaonTechnology

Agency for Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT),

Indonesia

APCRES2013,30September2October2013NusaDua,Bali,Indonesia

1. Backgrounds2. PotenalDemandofSmart-Grid3. SmartMicro-gridSumbaAPilot

Project

4. Discussions&FurtherWork

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Paradigmshi3ofNa7onalEnergyPolicy:availabilityandaffordabilitylimitaonof(Subsidzed)FossilFuel--->highexpectaontomore"GreenEnergy"supply:NewandRenewableEnergySources(NRES)andalsoEnergyEfficiency(EE),inthenaonalenergy-mixinthenearfuture.

Highincreaseofenergydemand(FuelandElectricity):populaonandeconomicgrowth,givemorepressuretoincreasetheenergysupply(fuelandelectricity)

TypesofCleanRenewable(Green)EnergyTechnology:AlmostallRESavailable:e.g.SolarPV,Pico/Micro/MiniHydro,Bioenergy,Geothermal:withtheirownlimitaonandbenefit,inparcularlytheirsitespecific,lowenergy-densityandintermientprofile.Economicallycannotcompetetheheavilysubsidizedfossilfuel,withoutabeerpricingpolicy.


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LandscapeofEnergyTechnologyProblems:FuelElectricity,SupplyDemand,PlanningOperaon,TechnologyManufacture/Fabricaon

Supply&T/DofelectricityinIndonesia:dominatedbyPTPLN(Limited)andIPP(IndependentPowerProducer).

TheinstalledcapacityofPLNandIPPplantsreached32.9GW.salesgrowfrom79TWhin2000to147TWhin2010orgrowanaverage6.4%peryear.

Maincustomers:household(40%),industry(35%)andcommercial(18%). Na7onalElectrifica7onRa7ois67.5%intheyearof2010 SAIDI(StandardAverageInterrup7onDura7onIndicator)andSAIFI

(StandardAverageInterrup7onFrequencyIndicator(SAIFI),quitehigh

at7.00hours/customer/yearforSAIDIand6.85mes/customer/yearfor

SAIFI.

Highincreaseofenergydemand(FuelandElectricity):populaonandeconomicgrowth,givemorepressuretoincreasetheenergysupply(fuel

andelectricity)

InterconnectedSystems

Two of main islands have own interconnected systems The rests are: (about 500 clusters)

Clusters of service areas with main grids, including remote off-grid distributedsystems (Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Papua)

Small islands: clusters of grids mainly of diesel systems, off-grid distributedsystems

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Rasio

Elektrifikasi62% 63% 64,3% 65,1% 65,8% 67,2% 70,4% 73,6% 76,8% 80,0%

REALISASI (Tahun) RENCANA (Tahun)

NAD90,85%

Sumut79,05%

Sumbar71,13%

Riau58,66%

Sumsel56,39%

Bengkulu61,11%

Babel68,73%

Lampung61,25%

Jakarta

100%

Banten67,29%

Jabar69,04%

Jateng

0,42%

Jambi75,71%

DIY75,70% Jatim

65,54%

Bali

70,87%

NTB31,20%

NTT29,10%

Kalbar58,34%

Kalteng57,07%

Kalsel70,53%

Kaltim65,25%

Sulut65,84%Gorontalo

46,79%

Sulteng56,04%

Sultra47,11%

Sulsel

65,9%

Malut63,84%

Maluku72,62%

Papua

31,61%

Category:

>60%

41-60%

20-40%

Sulbar

60,85%

Kepri44,45%

Papua Barat41,87%

Source:DJK(2011)

Plan(year)

Electrifica7on

Ra7o

Real(year)

People'saccesstoelectricityservicesneedtobeincreasedinlinewiththeincreasingelectricitydemand.Tomeetthegrowingneedrequiresanaddionofa

largepowersupplyandneedstobeimprovedforthelongterm.

Theissueoftheadequacyofsupplycanbeseenfromthereduconincarryingcapacityasthederang,thedecreasedofindexreliability,adequacyandquality

ofprimaryenergythatisnotappropriate.

Besidestheagefactoristhecauseofgenerangunitshavederang,wheretheoldcoalpowerplantforover25yearsandapowerplant/PLTGUolderthan15

yearsexperiencedsignificantlyderang.

Fuelconsumponisnotinaccordancewithhispowercausesadecreaseinplantperformanceandreliabilityaswellasincreasingthecostofelectricityproducon.

TheGovernmentconnuestomakeeffortstomeettheneedsofelectricpowerthroughoutIndonesia.In2010,thegovernmentissuedasecondFTP(FastTrack

Program)whichusageofrenewableenergyforelectricitygeneraonisexpected

tobeginplay


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IB : 10,5%

26

TWh

62

TWh

IT : 11,4%

14

TWh

37

TWh

JB : 7,9%

132

TWh

259

TWh

2012 2021

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PLN'sTENYEARSCAPACITYEXPANSIONPLANNING

20122021(RenewableEnergyincreasesfrom12%to20%)

CFPP:38GW GeoPP:6.3GW

10

MW

Capacity Expantion PlanAnnualGrowthofEnergy:

8.65%peryear

(Source,KadivETPLN,2013

HEPP:6.3GW GTPP:4GW

CCPP:2.5GW Other/NRE:0.28GW

2010 2030:

PP Capacity DevelopmentMultiply by ~ 5 - 7 folds

33,2 GW -> 162 GW , (Base, 8%/th).

-->228 GW (MP3EI, 10%/th)

RE Power Gen Cap. ~6x; 6,6-> 39 GW (Base)Geothermal & Hydro:12 GW(7%) and 18,3 GW(11%) in 2030.

NRErapidgrowthcouldnotbe

abletoincreaseitsroleinthe

na7onalenergymix(


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1260 MW

2200 MW

Projec7onofCummula7vePVInstalla7on

Capacity

Roadmap ofApplication inremote Area(GovtSpending)

PotentialApplication inGrid connected(Private SectorDriven)

Pengembangan PLTS

NAD: 44 locations, 7.4 MWp

Sumut: 27 locations 6.1 MWp

Sumbar:42 locations 7.7 MWp

Babel: 16 locations 35.0 MWp

Riau: 151 locations 60.1 MWp

Jabar, Banten: 3 locations 1.1 MWp

Sulselrabar:17 locations 29.7 MWp

NTB: 15 locations 44.5 MWpBali: 1 locations 0.3 MWp

Jateng DIY: 5 locations 0.7 MWpNTT: 99 locations 45.2 MWp

Jatim: 12 locations 4.3 MWp

Lampung: 18 locations 2.5 MWp

Sumsel, Jambi, Bengkulu:

6 locations 3.4 MWp

Kalbar: 63 locations 40.1 MWp

Kaltim: 30 locations 24,9 MWp

Kalselteng: 96 locations 48.7 MWp

Sulut, Sulteng, Gorontalo:39 locations 30.9 MWp

Maluku, Malut:29 locations 33.5 MWp

Papua, Pabar:

66 locations 44.9 MWp

1000 Islands PV Development Program of PLNPVDevelopmentProgramupto2021:850MW

PLN plan to developed Solar as an hybrid system with existing Diesel, Biomass or other RE potentials ina small islands, to respond with GOI policy to reduce oil consumption


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HYDROPOWERPOTENTIALININDONESIA75GW(HPPS1983)with3,9GWINOPERATION

ACEH

5.062 MW

NORTH SUMATERA

3.808 MW

WEST SUMATERA & RIAU

3.607 MW

SOUTH SUMATERA, JAMBI,BENGKULU & LAMPUNG

3.102 MW

WEST JAVA

2.861 MW

CENTRAL JAVA

813 MW

EAST JAVA

525 MW

BALI & NUSA TENGGARA

624 MW

SOUTH & SOUTH-EAST SULAWESI

6.340 MW

WEST KALIMANTAN

4.737 MW

NORTH & CENTRAL SULAWESI

3.967 MW

MOLUCCU

430 MW

PAPUA

22.371 MW

SOUTH,CENTRAL

&

EAST

KALIMANTAN

16.844 MW

TaskPrepare blueprint of Smart Grid implementation in Indonesian

power system and initiates pilot plant for Smart Micro-grid

Urgencies:Establishing more robust, efficient, fully automatic operation and

control of interconnected power systems

Achieving an international standards of 9 time maximum outagesper consumer per year

Boost ratio of electrifications up to 80% through development oftransmission and distribution networks, as well as encouraging

growth in generating capacity as much as 30,000 MW.

Increase penetration of renewable energy to 16.10%Development of energy self-sustained areas

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