future trends of tourism (harapan masa depan pariwisata) week 13 matakuliah: v0162 - pengantar...

Future Trends of Tourism (Harapan Masa Depan Pariwisata)

Week 13

Matakuliah : V0162 - Pengantar Industri Hospitality dan PariwisataTahun : 2008

Bina Nusantara HO@0808

Subject

- Tourism in the 3rd millenium (Pariwisata pada Milenium ke-3)- The world of tourism in 2020 (Pariwisata dunia pada 2020)- Forces impacting the future of tourism (Kekuatan-kekuatan yang mempengaruhi pariwisata di masa depan)- The tourists of the future (Wisatawan di masa depan)- The changing nature of tourism products (Perubahan karakteristik produk pariwisata)


Future Trends of TourismWeek 13

Objectives:On completion of this lesson, the students will be able to:- Examine forecast concerning the growth of

international tourism- Identify the major global forces that are shaping

the tourism of tomorrow- Understand the positive and negative impacts on

tourism markets and on the ability of destinations to respond to the demand of these markets


Tourism in the Third MillenniumWeek 13

• There has been rapid growth and development of tourism over the past half century. As noted by WTO (World Tourism Organization)– Since 1950, tourist activity has risen from 25 million

to 760 million arrivals in 2005. International tourism receipts have been risen from US2.1 billion to US$514 billion in 2003

– International tourism receipts grew faster than world trade in 1980s and new constitute a higher proportion of the value of the world exports than all sectors other than crude petroleum/ petroleum products and motor vehicles/ parts/ accessories

– Expert forecast stated that the number of tourist worldwide will increase from 668 million in the year 2000 to 1,516 billion in the year 2020.


The World of Tourism in 2020Week 13

Forecast 2005 – 2020• Europe will remain the largest receiving region, eventhough

the market share will decline from 59% to 45%• East Asia and the Pacific, increasing at 7% per annum, will

pass the Americas, holding a 27% market share in 2020 against 18% by the Americas

• Africa, the Middle East and South Asia market shares will increase to 5%, 4% and 1% respectively in 2020

• WTTC research shows that some 269.5 million people around the world will be employed in jobs that exist because of demand generated by travel and tourism by 2015

• Travel and tourism is driving, directly and indirectly, more than 10% of employment today, globally, regionally and nationally.


WTO’s Forecast of International Tourist Arrivals Worldwide and By Region 2010 – 2020

Tourist Arrival (millions)

Regions 2010 2020

Europe 527 717

East Asia/ Pacific 231 438

Americas 195 284

Africa 46 75

Middle East 37 69

South Asia 11 19

World 1,047 1,602Source: Goeldner and Ritchie (2006 : p.556)


Forces Impacting the Future of TourismWeek 13

• Economic– Based on WTO report, the number of international

tourist arrivals for the entire year is estimated to reach around 10%

– Despite the current economic condition, tourism can optimistically anticipate continued moderate-to-good overall rates of global economic growth of the traditional economies, but with an emerging importance of certain economies such as China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and Russia



• The continued growth of “Super-Europe”– As of May 2004, EU (European Union) nearly doubled in

geographic size, and vastly expanded its cultural and linguistic scope, with the long-awaited addition of 10 new member countries (Cyprus, the Czech Rep., Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia)

• Socioenvironmental awareness– Policy makers in tourism must know acknowledge that

development in the future will have to be compatible with the environment

– Things to be aware of include the use of land, pollution etc



• Technology– The world in 2020 will be characterized by the penetration

of technology into all aspects of life (WTO)– In brief, tourism is now coming face to face with the

realities of the massive advances in technology that have occurred over the past several decades

– The use of internet by travel industry to market tourism products

– Although technology has been used in enhancing performance and effectiveness (e.g. computerized reservation system, air control technology), there has been a great reluctant to replace human service providers with technologically driven alternatives.



• The Continuing Evolution of Air Travel– The future of air travel is likely to see a continuation

of the growth of low cost, reduced service air carriers

– Boeing believes the future need for air travel will be for smaller aircraft. Its 787 Dreamliner, said to be the super-efficient plane of tomorrow, will have three configurations flying between 6,500 and 15,700 kilometers and with passenger capacities of 217 to 289.



• Terrorism and Crisis Management Becomes Integral to Travel and Tourism– Why do terrorists attack tourism centers?

• First, an attack on a tourism center is an attack on a nation’s entire economy

• Second, tourism is highly media-oriented – terrorism seeks publicity and tourist attractions like sporting events and festivals are likely to have media already at the site

• Third, tourist attractions such as museums, historic sites and beautiful scenery represent the spirit and essence of a nation

• Fourth, tourist sports provide terrorists with relative anonymity. Security and police rarely know the identities or motivations of visitors at sites or events.



– Increasing security will be a must for airlines, hotels, restaurants and other tourism services

– The tourism industry must put in place a crisis management system that is capable of dealing with a wide range of catastrophes. Examples of recent tourism-related crisis:

• Britain: foot-and-mouth disease in cattle• Cuba, Haiti and Florida: hurricanes• Bali: nightclub bombing• China: SARS• Thailand: avian (bird) flu • Egypt: Luxor killing of tourists• Asia: Tsunami


The Tourist of the FutureWeek 13

• Emergence of the Knowledge-Based Society and Workforce– They will be seeking more individualized

experiences, often characterized as special-interest travel

– Such travelers are more interested in enriching their lives through experiences rather than hands-off entertainment

– They seek authentic, interactive, highly involved, quality travel experiences, focusing on in-depth coverage of the special interest topic or destination at hand



• Demographic Shifts– Leisurely, rather than highly programmed,

vacations will increase– More grandparents will be traveling with children– Many individuals will tend to turn inward toward

family and friends as they seek protection in a hostile world

– Concern for health and medical travel facilities will be driven by both physiological and psychological needs of older travelers

– Travelers will seek “home hotels” where that can easily find most things they need (including shoes and clothing), so as to minimize the luggage size



• Demographic Shifts– Educational hotels will meet the growing

desire of tourists both to learn and to acquire new skills

– The increase number of people unmarried will also change the need for travel facilities, events and activities that were designed to meet the needs of the traditional family vacation



• The Long-Predicted “Chinese Elephant” is Starting to Become a Tourism Reality– 2005 may be the year when mainland Chinese

really start to see the world– Travel industry expert forecast that the number of

Chinese outbound travelers will continue to grow by at least 20% each year

– In 2002 Chinese international travelers spent $15.4 billion, an average of $1,200 per person



• Diversity within a Homogeneous World– A visit to any major city in the world demonstrates

how information, economic pressures and the tendency to imitate has left the world “less different” than it was decades ago. However, the human entity, while recognizing the pragmatic value of sameness, is determined at the same time to make every effort to preserve and enhance unique identity

• The Quest for Stability and Security– Tourists are looking for stability and security

when visiting an area/ a country.



• The Arrival of Perpetual Tourism– A select segment of the world’s wealthy are always

on holidays – Examples: those who use RV (Recreational Vehicle)

as their home and those who live on cruise ships

• The Emergence of Extreme/ Adventure/ Disaster or “Dark” Tourism– The visit to the site of the disaster (floods,

earthquakes, tornados and hurricanes) or even mass killing (such as Auschwitz), create a unique type of destination experience that some travelers find exciting



• Change from a “Service” to an “Experience” Economy– Consumers seek a quality of experience from an

investment of their time and money– Travelers seek a quality “experience chain” that

links together the many service components of a complex travel experience

• The Evolution of Leisure Time– The development of more flexible working

hours in many countries– Paid holidays in most developed countries


The Changing Nature of Tourism Products

Week 13

• Beach and other resorts that provide a range of activities and attractions in a good environment, are easy to reach, are pleasant to be in, and have good communications to home and office

• Cities with good transport links, user-friendly airports and an attractive environment offering culture, entertainment and good shopping, which can be enjoyed during a short break

• “Get away from it all” destinations, offering an excellent environment, for total relaxation or for the pursuit of cultural, physical or environmental interests


The Changing Nature of Tourism Products

Week 13

• Theme parks that conveniently located, with good transport links, and offer a full range of entertainment and activities to be enjoyed by all the family over a short break

• Cruises, many of which are getting shorter and more affordable, are floating resorts that offer a full range of entertainment and leisure options to satisfy the whole family


THANK YOU AND HAVE A GOOD DAY

future trends of tourism (harapan masa depan pariwisata) week 13 matakuliah: v0162 - pengantar...

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