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MEMPERKOKOHFONDASIPERPAJAKAN
Faisal Basri 30Oktober2017
priceroberts.com.au uschamber.com
Bagian I Lingkungan Srategis Perpajakan (Me)lemah
Thedecliningtrendofeconomicgrowthinthelong-term,1976-2017*
*Firstsemester.Source:BPS-StatisticsIndonesia.
-15 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 11 12
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
2000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11
12
13
14
15
16
2017
*
GDPgrowth,year-on-year,percent
8
8% 7%6%
5%
Towardalowerlevelofequilibrium,from6%to5%
*Firstsemester.Source:BPS-StatisticsIndonesia.
3
4
5
6
7
2010 2011 2012
2013 2014
2015 2016
2017*
6.22 6.17
6.03
5.56
5.01
4.88
5.02 5.01
GDPgrowth,year-on-yer,percent
6%
5%
CreditpenetrationinIndonesiaisstillverylow
Source:WorldBank,WorldDevelopmentIndicators.
46.7
53.9
59.1
59.7
76.7
108.7
121.1
128.3
144.8
173.4
179.0
194.4
Indonesia
Cambodia
Philippines
Bangladesh
India
Brazil
Singapore
Vietnam
Malaysia
Thailand
SouthAfrica
China
Domesticcreditprovidedbyfinancialsector(%ofGDP),2015
39.1
41.8
43.9
52.6
63.1
67.9
111.9
125.2
129.7
149.2
151.3
153.3
Indonesia
Philippines
Bangladesh
India
Cambodia
Brazil
Vietnam
Malaysia
Singapore
SouthAfrica
Thailand
China
Domesticcredittoprivatesector(%ofGDP),2015
*2003Source:WorldBank,WorldDevelopmentIndicators.
Indonesia:domesticcredittoprivatesector
51.8
60.8
19.9
39.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016
Fintech?
Degreeofopenness:(X+M)*/GDP
*Exportsandimportsofgoodsandservices.**2015***1990Source:WorldBank:forpopulationdownloadedfromhttp://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=2&series=SP.POP.TOTL&country=onAugust14,2017;forexportsdownloadedfromhttp://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=2&series=NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS&country=onAugust14,2017;andforimportsdownloadedfromhttp://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=2&series=NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS&country=onAugust14,2017.
CountryPopulation(mil.,2016) 1981 2016 1981 2016 1981 2016
China 1,378.7 7.5 19.6 7.5 17.4 15.0 37.0India 1,324.2 5.8 19.2 8.4 20.6 14.2 39.8UnitedStates 323.1 9.5 **12.6 9.9 **15.4 19.4 **28.0Indonesia 261.1 29.0 19.1 24.0 18.3 53.0 37.4Brazil 207.7 9.4 12.5 9.8 12.1 19.2 24.6Japan 127.0 14.4 **17.6 13.7 **18.0 28.1 **35.6Philippines 103.3 23.8 28.0 27.2 36.9 51.0 64.9Vietnam 92.7 ***36.0 93.6 ***45.3 91.1 ***81.3 ***184.7Germany 82.7 20.2 46.0 24.1 38.4 44.3 84.4Thailand 68.9 23.8 68.9 30.1 54.2 53.9 123.1UnitedKingdom 65.6 25.4 28.1 22.5 30.0 47.9 58.1SouthAfrica 55.9 28.4 30.3 30.4 30.2 58.8 60.5Korea,Rep. 51.2 32.1 42.2 37.2 35.4 69.3 77.6Malaysia 31.2 51.6 67.2 57.7 60.8 109.3 128.0Netherlands 17.0 55.9 80.8 51.2 69.9 107.1 150.7Sweden 9.9 28.7 44.4 28.1 39.8 56.8 84.2HongkongSAR,China 7.3 91.1 187.4 92.6 185.2 183.7 372.6Denmark 5.7 36.1 53.1 34.9 46.2 71.0 99.3Singapore 5.6 198.2 172.1 201.6 146.3 399.8 318.4
Exports(X) Imports(M) X+M
Indonesia:degreeofopenness,1981-2016
Source:WorldBank:forexportsdownloadedfromhttp://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS);andforimportsdownloadedfromhttp://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS.DownloadedonAugust14,2017.
25.7
23.4
26.7
36.6
33.7
27.7
23.9
19.123.7
21.8
25.2 31
.1
27.5
24.7
23.7
18.3
49.4
45.2 51
.8
67.8
61.2
52.5
47.6
37.4
1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996-2000 2001-05 2006-10 2011-15 2016
PercentofGDP
Exports of goods & services Imports of goods & services Total
Dalam2tahunterakhirpekerjainformalmeningkat
Sumber:BadanPusatStatistik
PosisiFebruari,persen
2015 2016 2017
Informal 57.94 58.28 58.35
Berusahasendiri 17.92 16.90 17.55
Berusahadibantuburuhtidaktetap 15.55 17.41 17.09
Pekerjabebasdipertanian 4.20 4.34 4.30
Pekerjabebasdinonpertanian 5.63 5.80 4.83
Pekerjakeluarga/takdibayar 14.64 13.83 14.58
Formal 42.06 41.72 41.65
Berusahadibantuburuhtetap 3.48 3.34 3.57
Buruh/karyawan 38.58 38.38 38.08
MayoritaspendudukIndonesiaserbatakberkecukupan
Ì Looking�at�EAP�through�the�lens�of�economic�class�
Introducing�class�differentiation� leads� to�a�more�nuanced�understanding�of�past� trends� in� the�region.�While Figure II.A.2A shows the familiar story of the dramatic reduction of poverty in the region (from 55 to 12 percent between 2002 and 2015), Figure II.A.2B offers additional insights. In addition to the virtual elimination of extreme poverty in the region, these include the almost constant share of vulnerable individuals despite the varied events that have characterized the first 15 years of this century, and the rising wave of economic security that has swept the region.
Figure II.A.2A. The evolution of poverty in EAP, 2002–15 Figure II.A.2B. The changing structure by economic class of EAP’s population, 2002–15
Percentage of the population Percentage of the population
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Poor
Nonpoor
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Middle class
Economically secure
Vulnerable
Moderate poor
Extreme poor
J Nonpoor (PPP US$3.10 a day and over) J Poor (less than PPP US$3.10 a day) J Middle class (PPP $15 a day and over) J Economically secure (PPP US$5.50–US$15.00 a day)
J Vulnerable (PPP US$3.10–US$5.50 a day) J Moderate poor (PPP US$1.90–US$3.10 a day)
J Extreme poor (less than PPP US$1.90 a day)
Source: EAPPoV national surveys standardized.Note: Poverty rates where household surveys are unavailable have been estimated by interpolating and extrapolating based on GDP per capita growth and growth elasticities of poverty between the two closest available surveys.
Figure II.A.3A. Indonesia, 2002–15 Figure II.A.3B. The Philippines, 2002–15a
Percentage of the population Percentage of the population
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Middle class
Economically secure
Vulnerable
Moderate poor
Extreme poor
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Middle class
Economically secure
Vulnerable
Moderate poor
Extreme poor
J Middle class (PPP $15 a day and over) J Economically secure (PPP US$5.50–US$15.00 a day) J Middle class (PPP $15 a day and over) J Economically secure (PPP US$5.50–US$15.00 a day)
J Vulnerable (PPP US$3.10–US$5.50 a day) J Moderate poor (PPP US$1.90–US$3.10 a day) J Vulnerable (PPP US$3.10–US$5.50 a day) J Moderate poor (PPP US$1.90–US$3.10 a day)
J Extreme poor (less than PPP US$1.90 a day) J Extreme poor (less than PPP US$1.90 a day)
Source: EAPPoV national surveys standardized.Note: Poverty rates where household surveys are unavailable have been estimated by interpolating and extrapolating based on GDP per capita growth and growth elasticities of poverty between the two closest available surveys. (a) Based on income rather than consumption.
II.A. RAISInG THE BAR: FRoM REDUCInG PoVERTY To FoSTERInG InCLUSIVE GRoWTH In EAP 79
BALANCING ACT
Source:WorldBank,EastAsiaandPacificEconomicUpdate,October2017:79.
Bagian II Tetapi Ambisi Belanja Menggebu
Higherqualityspending,allocationforinfrastructureincreasedsharply,butnotsustainable
Antaratargetdanrealisasi
§ Selamakurunwaktu2006-2014,realisasipenerimaanpajakDJPrata-rata96persendaritarget.
§ Hanyasekalidiatastarget,yaitupadatahun2008sebesar107persenketikacommodityboommencapaipuncaknya.
§ PadaduatahunpertamapemerintahanPresidenJokoWidodomelorotke82persen.Tanpapenerimaandaritaxamnesty,realisasipenerimaanpajak2016hanyasekitar74persen.
Akrobatfiskalmenekanlaba2BUMNterbesar:PertaminadanPLNjadikorban
§ HargaBBM• HargaBBMbersubsiditidakdinaikkan,padahalharga
minyaksudah4bulanberturut-turutnaik.TetapisubsidiBBMdiAPBNtidaknaik,melainkandisembunyikandiPertamina.
• BBMsatuhargasepatutnyamerupakanPSOyangdicantumkandiAPBN,bukandibebankankepadaPertamina.
• PiautangPertaminakepemerintahterusnaik
§ Tariflistriksudah2tahuntidaknaik,sedangkanhargaenergiprimermerangkaknaik.
Penugasanmembanguninfrastruktur:BUMN“karya”jadikorban;jugaberagamintervensi
§ PenugasankepadaBUMNkaryamengerjakanproyekinfrastruktur.Yangpalingparah:tolsumateradanLRT.
§ Hargagasdipatok$6perMMBtuberdasarkanPerpres:PGNterpuruk.
§ Bailoutgayabaru:BulogmengambilalihGendhisMultiManis(perusahaanswastamurniyangsangatbobrok)yangkreditnyadiBRImacet.
Merayuinvestasibarutetapiyangsudahadabepergiansatudemisatu
§ Investasisektormigasanjlok:eksperimengrosssplitscheme.
§ KisruhBatam§ Tidakbelajardarisloganrestoranpadang:“jika
andapuasberitahuteman,jikaandakecewaberitahukami.”
§ Paketderegulasidanperbaikanperingkateaseofdoingbusinessserasahambar.
Bagian III Back to Basics
Taxratiodecreasedinthelast5years
10.5
11.2
11.411.3
10.910.8
10.4
9.5
10.1
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016* 2017**
Taxrevenue-LHS Taxratio-RHS
Rptrillion %ofGDP
*Withoutpenaltiesfromtaxamnesty.**Ownestimate.Sources:TaxrevenuefromMinistryofFinance;GDPfromBPS-StatisticsIndonesia..
Indonesia’stax-to-GDPratioislowcomparedtopeers
Source:WorldBank,IndonesiaEconomicQuarterly,March2017,p.21.
S t a y i n g t h e c o u r s e I n d o n e s i a E c o n o m i c Q u a r t e r l y
21
March 2017 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DUNIA
Tim Reformasi is
overseeing an
ambitious reform
agenda that, if
implemented, will
significantly increase
the tax-to-GDP ratio
The Ministry of Finance’s new Tim Reformasi is working fast to outline a detailed roadmap for its four-year tax reform agenda.30 The reforms will be centered on three administrative pillars and one policy pillar: organizational structure and business processes; human resources; the IT system; and tax laws and regulations. The new strategy includes a “quick-wins” list of reforms the Government intends to implement immediately in 2017, but more importantly, it sets out work on fundamental multi-year reforms, including investing in a new IT system. Additionally, on tax administration, the end of the tax amnesty program shifts attention to the question of what Government will be able to do using the newly collected data.
If the Directorate General of Taxes (DGT) is able to successfully use data collected to improve compliance and broaden the tax base, then there may be longer term benefits of the tax amnesty program. On the policy-side, reforms of the VAT and of the tax regime governing medium, small and micro enterprises (PP46) may be prioritized, as may be the income tax law. These proposed reforms broadly seek to expand the taxable base, reduce exemptions, and reduce compliance costs. If the Government is able to successfully pass through the legislative hurdles and implement positive reforms on these areas, then 2017 will prove to be a big year for meaningful, structural reforms. With Indonesia amongst the countries in the region with one of the lowest tax-to-GDP ratios, this will be a positive development (Figure 37).
Figure 37: Indonesia’s tax-to-GDP ratio is low compared to peers
(percent of GDP)
Source: IMF; World Bank calculations
30 In addition to Tim Reformasi Perpajakan, the Ministry of Finance also established Tim Penguatan Reformasi Kepabeanan dan Cukai (Custom and Excise Strengthening Reform Team). The work of this team is focused on one administrative and one policy pillar: organizational structure and human resources; and custom and excise laws and regulations. Tim Penguatan Reformasi Kepabeanan dan Cukai aims to improve custom and excise revenues and address long-standing challenges in the custom and excise reform area. (BKF, 2017)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40 2011 2012 2013 2014percentofGDP
Industryisthelargestcontributortotaxrenenue
0.1
0.5
1.11.4 1.5
3.2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Agriculture Construction Trade Mining Industry Finance
TaxtoGDPcoefficient
Sources:MinistryofFinanceandBPS-StatisticsIndonesia.
2012-2016(average)Contributionofindustrytotaxrenenue=30.7%ShareofindustrytoGDP =210%
*FirstsemesterSources:WorldBankandBPS-StatisticsIndonesia
29.1
20.4
37.8
28.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Manufacturing,valueadded(%ofGDP)
Indonesia East Asia & Pacific (IDA & IBRD countries)
Manufacturingmatters:theshareofmanufacturingindustrycontinuedtodecline
Indonesia:prematureindustrialization?
*Jan-JunforGDPgrowth,Sep(y-oy)forinflation,andJan-Sepfortaxrevenuegrowth.Sources:MinistryofFinanceandWorldBank.
Taxrevenuegrowthisveryunstable
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Inflation+growthversustaxrevenuegrowth
Inflation+growth Tax revenue
Economicgrowthiscloselylinkedtothecommodityboom
Source: Office of Chief Economist, Bank Mandiri..
Mengoreksitransformasiperekonomian
§ Percepatmodernisasipertanianuntukmeningkatkanproduktivitas.
§ Dorongpekerjapertanianberalihkemanufakturdansektorlainnyadenganproduktivitaslebihtinggi.
§ Transisi:industrialisasidipedesaandenganteknologitepatguna.
§ Hasildaritransisi:meskipunwajibpajakperseorangantidakmeningkatsignifikan,tetapisetidaknyaPPNdiharapkannaikcukupberarti.
TheservicesectorshavedominatedtheIndonesianeconomy:tooearly?
Sources:BPS-StatisticsIndonesiaandWorldBank
55
46
41
45
54
59
EconomicstructureofIndonesia:tradablesvs.non-tradables
(%ofGDP)
Tradables Non-tradables
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1981
19
83
1985
19
87
1989
19
91
1993
19
95
1997
19
99
2001
20
03
2005
20
07
2009
20
11
2013
20
15
EconomicstructureofChina:good-producingsectorsandservicesertors(%ofGDP)
Good-producing sectors
Services
GrowthofGDPandhouseholdconsumptionduringandaftercommodityboom
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Household consumption growth GDP growth
Start of commodity boom
End of commodity boom
Glo
bal f
inan
cial
crisi
s Thegapbetweenthe
lineofeconomicgrowthandthelineofhouseholdconsumptiongrowthreflectsthemagnitudeofthecommodityboom.
Commoditypricessoftenedduringthefirsthalfof2017
3
C H A P T E R 1 G LO B A L P R O S P E C TS A N D P O L I C I E S
International Monetary Fund | October 2017
tightening of monetary policy over the past two years. Recovering domestic and external demand supported rebounding growth in Russia and Turkey. Internal and cross-border conflict in parts of the Middle East still weighed on economic activity, while Venezuela faced a political and humanitarian crisis amid a deepen-ing recession.
Softer Commodity Prices
The IMF’s Primary Commodities Price Index declined by 5 percent between February and August 2017—that is, between the reference periods for the April 2017 WEO and the current report (Figure 1.3). Some of the biggest price drops were among fuels: • Oil prices fell by 8.1 percent between Febru-
ary and August, even as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC oil exporters announced in May that they would extend oil production cuts through the
first quarter of 2018. The main drivers of lower prices were higher-than-expected US shale produc-tion and stronger-than-expected production recov-eries in Libya and Nigeria. In addition, exports from OPEC countries remained at relatively high levels, even with lower production. Following some strengthening in recent weeks, oil prices stood at about $50 a barrel as of late August, still lower than in the spring.
• The natural gas price index—an average for Europe, Japan, and the United States—decreased by 9.6 per-cent from February to August 2017. The decline was mostly tied to seasonal factors and robust supply from the United States and Russia, and lower oil prices, which some natural gas prices are indexed to. The diplomatic rift between Qatar, the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, and several other countries in the region, including Saudi Ara-bia, has not affected liquefied natural gas markets, as Qatar’s exports have continued.
• The coal price index—an average of Australian and South African prices—increased by 16.5 percent between February and August 2017. Following the end of the disruption to coal transportation in Australia caused by Cyclone Debbie in late March, coal prices declined until June. Strong demand from
Figure 1.2. Global Fixed Investment and Trade
Source: IMF staff calculations.1Data for 2017:Q2 are based on preliminary estimates for Russia.2Other countries include Brazil, Canada, India, Korea, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Turkey, and the United Kingdom.
Structures OtherEquipment fiResidential Total
1. Contribution of Gross Fixed Capital Formation to GDP Growth1
(Percentage point contribution, year-over-year)
–6
–3
0
3
6
9
12
2015:Q1 15:Q2 15:Q3 15:Q4 16:Q1 16:Q2 16:Q3 16:Q4 17:Q1 17:Q2
United StatesEuro areaJapan
2. Real Merchandise Imports (Seasonally adjusted quarter-over-quarter annualized percent change)
ChinaOther countries2
World
Investment began to pick up in the third quarter of 2016. Global trade accelerated as well, before moderating more recently.
–0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2015:Q115:Q2 15:Q3 15:Q4 16:Q1 16:Q2 16:Q3 16:Q4 17:Q1 17:Q2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Sources: IMF, Primary Commodity Price System; and IMF staff estimates.
fi
Food
Figure 1.3. Commodity Prices(Deflated using US consumer price index; index, 2014 = 100)
Eradigital
§ Eradigitalmengubahberbagaiaspekkehidupan:polaproduksi,polatransaksi,gayahidup,dansebagainya.
§ Investorkelaskakapberdatangan,antaralainJackMa.
§ Transaksisemakinmarak,PPNnaik,tetapiyangdiperdagangkansemakinbanyakbarangdanjasaimporjikasektorproduksikitatakdibenahi,sehinggabasispajakjangkapanjangkurangkokoh.
Prasyaratyangdibutuhkan
§ StrukturekonomiyangkokohbertolakdarikeunggulankomparatifunikIndonesiasebagainegaramaritim:
• Integrasiperekonomiandomestik
• Sektorpertaniandenganproduktivitastinggiyangditopangolehindustrialisasidipedesaandenganteknologitepatguna
• Sektormanufakturyangberdayasaing
• Usahakecildanmenengahyangtangguh
§ Mengurangiketergantunganpadakomoditas.
Perlupendekatanholistikdankonduktorpiawai
§ Pajakmerupakancerminandaridinamikadanmekanismeperekonomian.
§ Reformasiperpajakanbertolakdaripotretekonomi.Teknisreformasiperpajakanserahkankepadaahlinya.
§ Perlukonduktorhandaldanpiawaiuntukmenyelaraskaniramaseluruhpemainmusikdanpenyanyi.
§ Leadershipmatters.
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