(laswin)kebijakan penanganan perubahan iklim internasional.ppt

8/10/2019 (Laswin)Kebijakan Penanganan Perubahan Iklim Internasional.ppt

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Kebijakan Penanganan

Perubahan Iklim Internasional

Dr. Lawin Bastian

Sekretaris Pokja Mitigasi, DNPI

Seminar Nasional Mitigasi dan Adaptasi Perubahan Iklim

Menuju Tata Kelola Hutan dan Lahan Lestari

Jakarta, 18-19 November 2014


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Brief history of Climate Change Negotiations

1988 Establishment of IPCC1992 UNFCCC adopted (entry into force in 1994)

1995 COP-1 : Berlin Mandate adopted

1997 Kyoto Protocol adopted, entry into force in 2005; negotiation under the KP

(AWG-KP)

2001 Marrakesh Accords (implementation rules) adopted2007 Bali Action Plan adopted; negotiation under the UNFCCC (AWG-LCA) launched

2009 COP-15: Copenhagen Accord (not adopted by COP)

2010 COP-16: Cancun Agreements

2011 COP-17: Durban Platform Agreement; launching negotiation on 2015

Agreement

2012 COP-18: Doha Climate Gateway (including 2CP of the KP)

2013 COP-19: Warsaw

2014 COP-20: Lima

2015 COP-21: Paris (expected to adopt 2015 Agreement)


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Implementation of 2020 target and Itinerary toward a new legal

instrument, to start from 2020

Negotiati

on

toward a

new

instrume

nt from

2020

Actions

to betaken

up to

2020

2012 201520142013 2020

C

O

P18

C

O

P21

AWG on Durban Platform (ADP)

C

A

Adoption

Entry into

force

IPCC AR 5

Implementation of CA

2ndCP (2013 ~ 2020)

Review of long term target

(2013 ~ 2015)

1stCP

AWG KPK

P

AWG LCA

Compliance assessment

of 1stCP

Finish work by 2015

Ratification

Source: Takamura based on MOE

Start in the 1sthalf

of 2012


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Negotiation up to 2015 (COP-21)

C

O

P19

2013 2014 2015 2020

C

O

P

20

C

O

P

21

Entryintoforceand

implementation

Preparation and

communication of INDC

Elaboration of elements of

negotiating text

Elaboration

of N textNegotiation A

doption

Negotiation

continues?

Ratification?Consultation?

June:

Negotiation

text

March:

Submission

of INDCSource: Takamura


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Negotiation toward a 2015 agreement

Launch a process to develop a protocol,

another legal instrument or an agreed

outcome with legal force under the

Convention applicable to all parties

A protocol

Another legal instrument

An agreed outcome with legal force

Legal binding of the instrument remains

undecided.


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Perjanjian Perubahan Iklim 2015

Berdasarkan pada science.

Secara umum terdiri dari meat dan

bones.Meat:definisi, prosedur/mekanisme, ..

Bones: rencana aksi yang dilakukan

masing-masing negara (kontribusi)Intended Nationally Determined

Contributions (INDC).


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Pemahaman INDC

1. INDCs merefleksikan kontribusi negara untukmencapai tujuan Konvensi.

2. Kontribusi tersebut ditentukan berdasarkan

faktor yang dipertimbangkan relevan(kemampuan, circumstances, global goal, dll).

3. Kontribusi hendaknya dapat dikuantifikasi.

4. Kontribusi hendaknya dilengkapi denganinformasi sehingga dapat dimengerti (upfront

information).


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Contributions to ultimate objective of the Convention (Art.2)stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrationsin the atmosphere at a level that

would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow

ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production

is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a

sustainable manner.

Pre-2020

Kyoto Protocol Voluntary GHG Emissions

Reduction (RAN/RAD GRK) 26% and 41%

Law and regulation, strategy,program

GHG Inventory

National Communication

BUR

Institutional arrangement

Post-2020

The 2015 Agreement INDCs

Up-front

information

Average temperature < 2 C


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Pandangan mempertahankan 2 C

Dalam konteks global, mitigasi merupakan

pra-syarat dari adaptasi (negara maju).

Namun dalam skala nasional, sebagian negara

memandang bahwa adaptasi merupakan pra-

syarat dari mitigasi (negara berkembang).

Perlu memahami Kontribusi dalam INDC.

Common but differentiated responsibility

National circumstances


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2020 (Baseline)

GHGemissionsra

te

Proyeksi emisi GRK

meningkat dari 1,72 to 2,95

Gton CO2e (2000-2020).

2005 (Base

15%

NAMAs

INDCs26

%

Ratifikasi Konvensi danKyoto Protokol

Perjanjian 2015

Proyeksi emisi GRK?

Target reduksi emisi?


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Up-front information relevant to all types of

contributions

Base year, target year/period, sector coverage, GHG coverage,GWP, inventory methodology, use of market units, land use

approach, conditions attached to target (upper bound of

target coridor), indicators related to fairness and ambition

Up-front information relevant to specific types of

contributions

Quantified

Absolute

Target:

Projections of

emissions

Intensity

Target:

GDP in base

year

Deviation

Business-As-

Usual:

Projected

emissions in

BAU for target

year/period

Set of Policies

and

Measures:

Description of

policy


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Tantangan yang dihadapi

Mobilisasi sumber daya

common understanding

Pengumpulan dan kualitas data

Perbaikan sistem dan kapasitas saat ini sebagai

antisipasi Perjanjian 2015

Peraturan perundang-undangan

Pengaturan kelembagaan

Strategi, program dan kegiatan

Metodologi

MRV (Monitoring, Reporting, Verification)

Pendanaan dan peningkatan kapasitas

Penelitian dan pengembangan


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Terimakasih

[email protected]

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