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KEBIJAKAN MONETER II:

SASARAN TUNGGAL KESTABILAN HARGA

BAURAN KEBIJAKAN (MAKRO PRUDENTIAL)

FAKULTAS EKONOMIIPB

Pusat Riset dan Edukasi Bank SentralBank Indonesia

Bogor, 3 Desember 2013

1MATA KULIAH

K E B A N K S E N T R A L A N


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Starting from July 2005, Bank Indonesia implements a new monetary policy

framework consistent with the Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF).

In line with the central bank act no. 23/1999 and its amendment (act

no.3/2004)

Enhance BIs credibility as inflation controller through commitment to hit

inflation target.

Research: more difficult to control monetary aggregate

Comply with sound monetary policy principles. Empirical experience of other countries: ITF countries success to

reduce inflation without increasing output volatility.

Why Inflation Targeting Framework?


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0/1 MMm

OPERASI MONETER:

Sasaran operasional:Uang Primer (Mo)

Instrumen: OPT

SASARAN ANTARA:

Uang beredar: M1,

M2

SASARAN AKHIR:

Inflasi

Pertumbuhan

ekonomi

),,( YrMM DS

),( Othersrfr CB

OPERASI MONETER:

Sasaran operasional: suku

bunga jangka pendek (rCB)

Instrumen: OPT

INDIKATOR KEBIJAKANInformation Variable

Suku bunga jk panjang (r)

Uang beredar: M1, M2

Kredit, nilai tukar, dll.

SASARAN AKHIR:

Inflasi

Pertumbuhan

ekonomi

proyeksiModel

Short-run

Phillips CurveSasaran suku bunga(price-based appr oach ) - BI sejak Juli 2005 via ITF

Sasaran uang beredar (quant i ty based appro ach) - BI sebelum Juli 2005

KERANGKA KERJA KEBIJAKAN MONETER

Inflasi sebagai sasaran akhir jangka panjang. Is no t a rule ; just a framework Dalam penetapan sasaran inflasi jangka menengah panjang, dipertimbangkan sasaran yang optimal

berdasarkan social welfare loss function implikasi dari tradeoff antara price dan output.

3


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The Strategic Framework (1)

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Indonesia has been practicing Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF) since 2000, butstill use base money as operating target.

Efforts for strengthening the framework: (i) Research and model for forecasting,

(ii) Regular board meeting, and (iii) Communication.

Starting July 2005, enhanced framework consistent with the implementation of ITF

is introduced with four key elements:

1. BI Rate as a policy reference rate,

2. Forward looking strategy of monetary policy making,

3. More transparent communication strategy

4. Improved coordination with Government.

The new framework is intended to enhance the effectiveness and governance of

monetary policy making for achieving price stability to support economic growth

and welfare.


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Key Features of the Framework

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Inflation Targeting: A Framework, Not A Rule6


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Keterkaitan antara Variabel dan Pencapaian Sasaran Inflasi dalam IT

OPT

SBI

FASBI

FTO

BI Rate

Likuiditas

Pasar Uang

GWM

Sterilisasi

Valas

Suku Bunga

Kredit

Balance Sheet

Harga Aset

Ekspektasi

NILAI TUKAR

Indikator

Aktiva DN Bersih

Fasilitas pendanaan

Pinjaman bank

Total

Supply

Total

Demand

OUTPUT

GAP

Tekanan

Inflasi

Domestik

INFLASI

Tekanan

Inflasi

Eksternal

Indikator

Suku bunga PUAB, deposito,

dan pinjaman

IHSG, nilai tukar

Indikator

Indeks Harga

Impor

Indikator

Survey/Leading

Output Gap

Policy Severity

Indikator IHK

Headline/

Core

Harga Aset

Adm/Trade/

Volatile

Besaran Moneter

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Main indicators for setting monetary policy response are inflationand economic growth.

Monetary policy response consider behavior of linkage among

economic variables and monetary policy transmission.

Monetary policy formulation considers government economic

policy.

To support analysis of inflation and economic growths forecast,

and relationship among economic variables:>Economic Model

>Information Variable

Policy Formulation (1)


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9Policy Formulation (2)


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10Policy Formulation (3)


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11Monetary Policy Response (1)

Monetary Policy Response The monetary policy stance is determined each month in the monthly Board

Meeting, drawing on material within a monthly scope.

Monetary policy stance (BI Rate) is effective until the next Board Meeting.

The decision concerning the monetary police stance (BI Rate) takes into account the

monetary policy lag in influencing inflation.

In unforeseen circumstances, the monetary policy stance may be adjusted in

advance of the Monthly Board Meeting in a weekly Board Meeting.

Magnitude of Change in the BI Rate

The monetary policy stance is expressed in changes to the BI Rate (consistent and

progressive in increments of 25 bps). Under conditions indicating the need for

stronger intentions on the part of Bank Indonesia for achievement of the inflation target,

the BI Rate may be adjusted by more than 25 bps in increments of 25 bps


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The BI Rate is the policy rate reflecting the monetary policy stance adopted byBank Indonesia and announced to the public.

The BI Rate is announced after monthly Board of Governors Meeting. It is

implemented in the Bank Indonesia monetary operations conducted by means

of liquidity management on the money market to achieve the monetary policy

operational target.

The monetary policy operational target is reflected in movement in the Interbank

Overnight (O/N) Rate. It is then expected that bank deposit rates will track the

movement in interbank rates, with bank lending rates to follow suit.

While other factors in the economy are also taken into account, Bank Indonesiawill normally raisethe BI Rate if future inflation is forecasted aheadof the

established inflation target. Conversely, Bank Indonesia will lower the BI Rate if

future inflation is predicted belowthe inflation target.


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Basic Consideration to decide Policy Response:

BI Rate is central bank response on future pressure on inflation gap

BI Rate is set discretionary by Board of Governor considering:

> BI Rate recommendation from economic model

> other information: leading indicators, survey, anecdotal

information, information variable, expert opinion, risk factor

assessment and uncertainty, economic and monetary policy

research.

BI Rate is changed mainly if inflation gap forecast is considered

permanent and consistent with other information and indicators.


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Bank sentral secara eksplisit memiliki target inflasi dan berjanji untukmencapai target tsb pada suatu periode waktu tertentu(time horizon).

BS melakukan forecastinflasidng semua informasi yang ada.

BS menggunakan instrumen kebijakan moneter untuk mencapai target

inflasi tersebut.Jika forecastinflasi berbeda dng target inflasi, BS melakukan perubahan

stance kebijakan moneter (umumnya menggunakan Taylors type rule):

r = rt -1+ (-*) + (y - y*); dimana , >0

Jika gagal mencapai target, harus menjelaskan ke publik.

BS memberikan laporan secara reguler kpd publikmengenai outlook

inflasi dan kebijakan yang diambil.

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Monetary Policy Response (3)


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Kerangka Operasional Kebijakan Moneter (BI-rate)Menggunakan Koridor Suku Bunga

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16Operational Framework (1)

To achieve the overriding monetary policy objective, Bank Indonesia hasimplemented a monetary policy framework for management of interest rates (interest

rate target).

The policy rate, commonly known as the BI Rate. At the operational level, the BI

Rate is reflected in movement in the Interbank Overnight (O/N) Rate.

The interbank money market is the activity of lending and borrowing money betweenone bank and another bank. An interbank rate represents the price formed in a deal

between parties lending and borrowing funds.

Activity on the interbank is conducted over the counter (OTC) through deals between

borrowers and holders of funds arranged without passing through an exchange floor.

Interbank tenors range from one working day (overnight) to one year.

Bank Indonesia will work consistently to safeguard and fulfill the liquidity needs of the

banking system while maintaining the equilibrium for formation of fair, stable interest

rates by doing monetary operation.


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17Operational Framework (2)

Monetary Operations represent the implementation of themonetary policy adopted by Bank Indonesia for the purpose of

liquidity managementand are conducted through Open Market

Operations and Standing Facilities.

Open Market Operations, or OMO, are transactionsconducted

by Bank Indonesia on the money market with banks and/or other

parties within the framework of Monetary Operations, while

Standing Facilities consist of lending facilities extended by Bank

Indonesia to banks and/or other parties and deposit facilitiesextended to banks and/or other parties at Bank Indonesia for the

purpose of Monetary Operations.


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Karakteristik OPT SFInisiatif (vol) BI Bank

Fungsi dlm mgt

likuiditas

Smoothingvolatilitas suku

bunga PUAB O/N

Koridor Suku Bunga PUAB O/N

Mekanisme Transaksi Lelang Non-lelang

ketersediaan Tdk harus setiap hari Setiap hari

Peserta Bank & Lembaga Perantara Bank

Jangka Waktu Di atas O/N O/N

Instrumen Penerbitan SBI

Repo

Reverse Repo

Pembelian dan PenjualanSBN

Term Deposit

Deposit facility

Lending facility

Setelmen < T+1

(dpt quick setelmen, T+0, T+1)

T+0

OPERASI MONETER (OM):OPERASI PASAR TERBUKA (OPT) & STANDING FACILITIES(SF)


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Penyempurnaan Operasi

Kerangka Operasional Baru19

Deposit Facility

(d/h FASBI o /n)

=5,5%

Waktu

BI Rat e

= 6,5%

Lend ing Facility

(d/h Repo o/n)

= 7,5%PUAB o/n

Interes

tR

ate

Corr

idor

Interest Rate

Repo (d/h FTE)

Term Depo sit (d/h FTK)

SBI

Reverse Repo


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20Operational FrameworkMonetary Operation Instruments of Bank Indonesia

Operational Framework


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Operational FrameworkCharacteristics of Monetary Operation Instruments of Bank Indonesia

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Dampak likuiditasMengurangi

likuiditas

Mengurangi

likuiditas

Mengurangi

likuiditas

Mengurangi

likuiditas

Mengurangi

likuiditas

Menambah

likuiditas

Menambah

likuiditas

Frekuensi

transaksiBerkala Sewaktu-waktu Sewaktu-waktu Berkala Sewaktu-waktu Sewaktu-waktu Sewaktu-waktu

Jangka waktu

1 bln s.d. 12 bln

(dinyatakan dlm.

hari)

1 hari s.d. 12 bln

(dinyatakan dlm.

hari)

1 hari s.d. 12 bln

(dinyatakan dlm.

hari)

1 bln s.d. 12 bln

(dinyatakan dlm.

hari)

Untuk Transaksi

Swap s.d. 12 bln.

1 hari s.d. 12 bln

(dinyatakan dlm.

hari)

Untuk Transaksi

Swap s.d. 12 bln.

Nominal

pengajuan

minimal

Rp1.000jt Rp1.000jt Rp1.000jt Rp1.000jt Rp1.000jt

Nominal kelipatan Rp100jt Rp100jt Rp100jt Rp100jt Rp100jt

Mekanisme

transaksiLelang VRT

Lelang VRT dan/

atau FRTLelang VRT

Lelang (non

kompetitif)

Lelang VRT dan/

atau FRT

Setelmen s.d. T + 1 s.d. T + 1 s.d. T + 1 T + 0 T + 2 s.d. T + 1 T + 2

PesertaBank

Konvensional

Bank

Konvensional

Bank

Konvensional

Bank Syariah/

UUS

Bank

Konvensional

Bank

Konvensional

Bank

Konvensional

Instrumen dan

Keterangan

Absorpsi Likuiditas Injeksi Likuiditas

Penerbitan SBI Term DepositReverse Repo

SBN

Penerbitan

SBIS

Sterilisasi FX

(Spot jual USD

dan SWAP beli)

Repo

Sterilisasi FX

(Spot beli USD

dan SWAP jual)

Operational Framework


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Operational FrameworkCharacteristics of Monetary Operation Instruments of Bank Indonesia

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Deposit

Facil ity

FASBIS Lending

Facil ity

Repo

SBIS/SBSN

Dampak likuiditasMengurangi

likuiditas

Mengurangi

likuiditas

Menambah

likuiditas

Menambah

likuiditas

Frekuensi transaksiSetiap Hari

Kerja

Setiap Hari

Kerja

Setiap Hari

Kerja

Setiap Hari

Kerja

Jangka waktu overnight overnight overnight overnight

Nominal pengajuan

minimalRp1.000jt Rp1.000jt Rp1.000jt Rp1.000jt

Nominal kelipatan Rp100jt Rp100jt Rp100jt Rp100jt

Mekanisme

transaksiFRT FRT FRT FRT

Setelmen T + 0 T + 0 T + 0 T + 0

Suku bunga BI Rate 100bps

BI Rate

100bpsBI Rate +100bps

BI Rate +100bps

Peserta Bank Bank Bank Bank

Instrumen dan

Keterangan

Penempatan Dana Penyediaan Dana


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PBI OM Pasal 13 ayat 1:Dalam jangka waktu tertentu sejak memiliki SBI, pemilik SBI dilarang melakukan transaksi

atas SBI yang dimilikinya dengan pihak lain.

SE OPT: Definisi

Kewajiban bagi pembeli SBI baik di pasar primer maupun di pasar sekunder untuk

mempertahankan kepemilikannya minimal selama 1 bulan (28 hari kalender).

SE OPT: Transaksi SBI yang tidak diperbolehkan selama masa hold ing Transaksi repo(sell & buy back dan collateralized);

Transaksi outright;

Transaksi pengagunan; dan

Transaksi hibah.

SE OPT: Transaksi SBI yang diperbolehkan selama masa hold ing

1. Transaksi dengan Bank Indonesia, baik yang bersifat repo(d/r FLI, Repo SBI) maupun

pengagunan (d/r FPJP); dan2. Transaksi SBI yang dilakukan setelah berlakunya PBI OM yang merupakan bagian dari

transaksi yang telah dilakukan sebelum PBI OM ini diberlakukan, sampai dengan transaksi

yang bersangkutan jatuh waktu.

Sub-Registry wajib menatausahakan SBI milik nasabahnya dengan memenuhi ketentuan

sebagaimana di atas.

OPTSBI : minimum 1 month holding period


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Kebijakan Makro Prudential

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Perlkembangan terkini, Semakin Banyak Bank SentralMenerapkan Bauran Kebijakan ITF dan MakroPrudential,

disebabkan oleh:

Bubble Harga Asset

Global Financial Crisis 2008 memberikan pelajaran pentingnya Policy

Mix Macro Prudential Instruments.


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