investasi_property

8/7/2019 Investasi_Property

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/investasiproperty 1/45

“PROPERTY INVESTMENT“PROPERTY INVESTMENTSTRATEGY IN THE GLOBALSTRATEGY IN THE GLOBAL

FINANCIAL CRISIS”FINANCIAL CRISIS”

. . , . ,. . , . ,. . , . ,. . , . ,. . , . ,. . , . ,. . , . ,. . , . ,

Prepared for:

Tjiptono Darmadji Network “Seminar Investment In Property”

at Le Meridien Hotel - Jakarta

April 14, 2009



A FLASHBACK : PROPERTYA FLASHBACK : PROPERTY

BUSINESS IS A PRIMEBUSINESS IS A PRIMEMOVER OFMOVER OF

THE ECONOMYTHE ECONOMY



The property

business wasstarted by ‘surviveddevelopers’ without

banking loan

The property

business is the‘prime mover’ of ‘thereal sector’ through PROPERTY BUSINESSPROPERTY BUSINESS

IS THE PRIMEIS THE PRIME

PROPERTY BUSINESS IS THE PRIME MOVER OFPROPERTY BUSINESS IS THE PRIME MOVER OF

THE ECONOMYTHE ECONOMY

The propertybusiness alsoattracted lot of

capital inflow from

the overseas

support

The propertybusiness was

restarted after IBRAgave at 70%

discount to buytheir assets

The number ofdevelopers grew

from 1000 to 1.500and became the

saviors of theeconomy

ECONOMYECONOMY



152.50

201.20

150.0

200.0

Rp. (Triliun)

Pre Crisis Crisis Post Crisis

ACCUMULATIVE OF THE PROPERTY LOANS INACCUMULATIVE OF THE PROPERTY LOANS IN

PRE CRISIS, CRISIS & POST CRISISPRE CRISIS, CRISIS & POST CRISIS

115.43

88.17

67.2946.83

35.0032.10

25.50

67.7168.32

58.80

43.4932.2021.70

-

50.0

100.0

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Tahun

Source : Bank Indonesia, PSPI April 2009



IN YEAR 2003, MANY PEOPLE ASKS MEIN YEAR 2003, MANY PEOPLE ASKS ME

ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE 2ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE 2 ndnd

PROPERTY CRASH IN THE COUNTRYPROPERTY CRASH IN THE COUNTRY



THERE IS NO POSSIBILITY OF THETHERE IS NO POSSIBILITY OF THE

22NDND PROPERTY CRASH IN THEPROPERTY CRASH IN THE

……

KompasKompasKompasKompasKompasKompasKompasKompasMay 6, 2003May 6, 2003May 6, 2003May 6, 2003May 6, 2003May 6, 2003May 6, 2003May 6, 2003



WHAT ARE THE INFLUENCES OFWHAT ARE THE INFLUENCES OF

THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS TOTHE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS TO

THE PROPERTY SECTORSTHE PROPERTY SECTORS



SALES TURNOVER OF PROPERTY BUSINESSSALES TURNOVER OF PROPERTY BUSINESS

FOR 2005 T0 2009FOR 2005 T0 2009

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009P

1Proyek Pusat Perbelanjaan

Jabotabek7,334,734 31,984 23,130 14,300 3,945 6,907 80,265

2 Proyek Pusat Perbelanjaan Daerah 5,398,283 18,358 10,155 7,225 4,308 3,645 43,691

No. Nama ProyekNilai

Kapitalisasi

(Rp.)

GrossBuilding Area

(GBA) m2

Tahun

Source: PT. Panangian Simanungkalit & Associates, April 2009

3 Proyek Apartemen Jabotabek 5,961,390 7,945 8,445 9,786 10,372 7,289 43,838

4 Proyek Apartemen Daerah 1,660,524 1,412 3,509 3,326 4,769 4,259 17,275

5 Proyek Perkantoran Jabotabek 2,415,484 2,659 3,313 4,023 3,569 4,710 18,274

6 Proyek Hotel (Nasional) 1,181,251 3,108 3,043 3,536 3,740 4,127 17,554

7 Proyek Perumahan (Nasional) 78,344,845 17,730 17,561 22,977 29,371 25,931 113,571

8 Proyek Ruko/Rukan (Nasional) 18,686,408 7,812 9,132 11,948 13,217 11,669 53,778

120,982,918 91,008 78,288 77,123 73,290 68,537 388,245 Kapitalisasi Proyek Properti Nasional

(Rp. miliar)



The development of

office buildings,Malls, Trade Centersand condominiums

are ettin slow

The sales turnover of

property businesswill decrease fromIDR 73.3 Trio (2008)

to IDR 68.5 Trio

THE FORECAST OF PROPERTY BUSINESS IN 2009THE FORECAST OF PROPERTY BUSINESS IN 2009

(2009)

The development of

middle-classapartments will still

growing while theunoccupied units is

increasing

The housing salesturnover will decrease

from IDR 29.4 Trio(2008) to IDR 25.9 Trio

(2009)

property businessproperty business

in 2009in 2009



15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

SALES TURNOVER OF PROPERTY BUSINESSSALES TURNOVER OF PROPERTY BUSINESS

FOR 1999 TO 2009FOR 1999 TO 2009

-

5 ,000

10,000

Pro. Pus. Perbelanjaan Jabotabek 1,43 5.5 2 ,535 .9 4 ,173 .4 7,728 15,66 2 2 1,49 8 3 1,98 4 2 3 ,130 14 ,30 0 3 ,9 45 6 ,9 07

Proyek Pusat Perbelanjaan Daerah 79.20 181.20 577.90 4 ,277 15,320 16,9 77 18,3 58 10,155 7,225 4,3 08 3,6 45

Proyek Ap artemen Jabot abek 271.15 797.95 915.89 1,48 4 4,0 23 6,6 65 7,94 5 8,4 45 9,786 10,3 72 7,28 9

Proyek Apartemen Daerah - - 158 .40 249 362 23 6 1,412 3 ,509 3 ,326 4 ,769 4 ,259

Proyek Perkant oran Jabot abek 39 9.69 581.37 472.36 60 36 6 850 2 ,659 3 ,313 4 ,02 3 3 ,569 4 ,710

Proyek Hot el (N asional) - - - 59 88 5 1,378 3 ,108 3 ,04 3 3 ,536 3 ,740 4 ,127

Pro yek Perumahan ( Nasio nal)1,99 3.0 3,4 95.0 4,0 37.0 7,129 8,4 96 11,84 2 17,730 17,561 2 2,9 77 29 ,371 25,93 1

Proyek Ruko/ Rukan (N asional) 1,09 6.0 1,92 2.0 2,2 20 . 3,9 38 5,583 6,513 7,812 9,132 11,94 8 13,2 17 11,66 9

19 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 P 2 0 0 9 P



Occupancy rate of

malls and tradecenters aredecreasing from +80%-90% (2000)

Commercial

Properties such asmalls & trade

centers are

THE PROSPECTS OF THE PROPERTY BUSINESS IN 2009THE PROSPECTS OF THE PROPERTY BUSINESS IN 2009(1)(1)

to + 60%-70% (2009)

Trade centers and

condos are claimedsold + 85% while

the fact says only +60% are occupied

Development of

Malls, TradeCenters, andCondos are

getting slow

THE PROSPECTS OFTHE PROSPECTS OFTHE PROPERTYTHE PROPERTY

BUSINESS IN 2009BUSINESS IN 2009



The construction

loan rate will alsodecrease from

18,5% (2008) to

The inflation rate

is decreasing from12% (2008) to

5,9% (2009)The fundamentals of The fundamentals of property business in 2009property business in 2009

THE FUNDAMENTALS OF PROPERTY BUSINESS IN 2009THE FUNDAMENTALS OF PROPERTY BUSINESS IN 2009

The mortgage rate

will decrease from15% (2008) to12% (2009)

The GDP growthwill slightly

decrease from6,0% (2008) to

4,0% (2009)

The BI rate willdecrease from

8,75% (2008) to7,5% (2009)



The “KPR” rate is

decreasing to 12%,housing andapartment business

start to recover in

“RSH market” will

significantly increasefrom 105.000 units(2008) to 130.000

units 2009

THE PROSPECTS OF THE PROPERTY BUSINESS INTHE PROSPECTS OF THE PROPERTY BUSINESS IN 2009 2009(2)(2)

Housing, shophouse,midclass apartments,

and flats are stillpromising

2009

Land and housesvalue will increase

about 10 to 15%this year

THE Prospects of theTHE Prospects of theProperty Business inProperty Business in

20092009



WHY PROPERTY STILL THEWHY PROPERTY STILL THE

BEST INVESTMENT IN THEBEST INVESTMENT IN THE

COUNTRYCOUNTRY



Low deposit rate

(7%), low inflationrate (6%), the

currency is stable

“Reksadana” andstocks are nottrusted by ‘thewealthy’, while

property is safe andWhy Property StillWhy Property StillThe Best InvestmentThe Best Investment

WHY PROPERTY STILL THE BEST INVESTMENT INWHY PROPERTY STILL THE BEST INVESTMENT IN

THE COUNTRYTHE COUNTRY

Over supply is not aproblem as long as the

economy growth around5%. The property value will

‘increase’ even the

property is unoccupied.

The safer, profitable,promising, and risk-

free investmentchoice is property

Property become thestatus symbol, life

style, ‘saving account’of millionaires, also a

gift to a ‘loved one’

increasing.

in The Countryin The Country



THE PROPERTY RISKS COMPARISONTHE PROPERTY RISKS COMPARISON

INVESTMENT RISK BONDSTIME-

DEPOSIT SHARES PROPERTY

B INE RI K Hi h L w Hi h L w

INTEREST RISK High Low High Low

INFLATION RISK Moderate Very High HighLow

LIQUIDITY RISK High Low Low Moderate

Source : Pusat Studi Properti Indonesia, April 2009



UNIQUENESS OF INVESTOR MOTIVESUNIQUENESS OF INVESTOR MOTIVES

Property is the most solid investment

Oversupply no problem , price will increase

land scarcit

Many Speculative Investors

Property as money laundering instrument

Buy, empty and hold for 3-5 years is still profitable



END USERS UNIQUE BEHAVIORSEND USERS UNIQUE BEHAVIORS

Property is a long term investment

Move in to a better house

Property as a gift

Property as symbol of social status and

lifestyle



THE FOUR SEASONS OF THETHE FOUR SEASONS OF THE

PROPERTY MARKET &PROPERTY MARKET &



THE FOUR SEASONS OF THE PROPERTY MARKETTHE FOUR SEASONS OF THE PROPERTY MARKET

Soft Market ( Equilibrium )

e er s ar et

Weak Market ( Oversupply )

Buyer’s Market



SELL

RENTS INCREASE_EAGER BUYERS

RENTS OVERCOOK LOW YIELDS/HIGH RENTS

YIELD RISE

11

221010

1111

1212

Seller’sSeller’s WeakWeak

THE PROPERTY MARKET CLOCK THE PROPERTY MARKET CLOCK

SALES ACTIVITY UP

BUY

RENTS STABILISE

RENTS FALL_BUYERS SCARCE

SALES ACTIVITY FALLS

HIGH YIELDS/LOW RENTS

YIELDS FALL 44

5577

88

66

3399 ar ear e ar ear e

SoftSoft

MarketMarket

Buyer’sBuyer’s

MarketMarket



WHERE IS THE POSITION OFWHERE IS THE POSITION OF

THE PROPERTY MARKETTHE PROPERTY MARKET

CYCLE NOWCYCLE NOW



96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

RECOVERY BOOM 2P.CRASH E.RECOV BOOM 1 BBM 1,2 & 3TMP1

PROPERTY BUSINESS CYCLE FOR 1996 TO 2014PROPERTY BUSINESS CYCLE FOR 1996 TO 2014

00 09

BM = Buyer’s Market SLM = Saler’s Market SM = Soft Market WM = Weak Market

SLM1 BM1 SLM2 BM2 SLM3SM



13.5

10

12

14

16

Kredit (%)

THE MORTGAGE RATE COMPARISONTHE MORTGAGE RATE COMPARISON

%

.

6.5 6.25

5.0 4.54.0

1.5

0

2

4

6

8

Indonesia Filipina Tiongkok Thailand Malaysia Singapura AS Jepang

Suku Bunga

Suku Bunga Kredit

%% %

%%

%

%

Source : PT Panangian Simanungkalit & Associates, April 2009



THE ECONOMIC INDICATORS YEAR 2009 TO 2015THE ECONOMIC INDICATORS YEAR 2009 TO 2015

We a kWe a kWe a kWe a k

M a r k e tM a r k e tM a r k e tM a r k e t

2009200920092009 2010201020102010 2011201120112011 2012201220122012 2013201320132013 2014201420142014 2015201520152015

GDP Growth 4.0% 5.6% 6.0% 6.5% 6.5% 6.8% 7.2%

YearYearYearYear

Soft MarketSoft MarketSoft MarketSoft Mar ket Seller 's Mark etSel ler 's MarketSel ler 's MarketSel ler 's Market

Source : PT Panangian Simanungkalit & Associates, April 2009

Inflation Rate 5.9% 5.7% 5.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.5% 7.0%

BI Rate 7.5% 7.25% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 8.0% 8.5%

Mortgage (KPR) Rate 12.0% 11.5% 11.0% 10.5% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0%

Construction CreditRate

15.5% 14.5% 14.0% 14.5% 15.0% 16.5% 17.0%

Cycle TRANSITIONTO TIGHTNESS

TRANSITION TO EASETRANSITION TO EASETRANSITION TO EASETR A NSI TI O N TO E A SE M A X I M U M EA SEM A X I M U M E A SEM A X I M U M E A S EM A X I M U M E A SE



WHAT AREWHAT ARE

THE CHALLENGES FACINGTHE CHALLENGES FACING

THE PROPERTY BUSINESSTHE PROPERTY BUSINESS



DEVELOPER BUSINESS BEHAVIORSDEVELOPER BUSINESS BEHAVIORS

Most of developers are highly depends on Bank loan

Too many Speculative Developers

Dishonest developers who cheat the consumers

Generally they are not transparent

There are not many publicly traded developers

Too few who ‘go international’



UNNECESSARY FINANCIAL RISK UNNECESSARY FINANCIAL RISK

No “common perception” in property biz riskbetween Bank Indonesia and private Banks

Big private banks controlled by foreign investors

Lack of property market research

Right protection for Mortgage debtor is weak



THE SOLUTIONS OFTHE SOLUTIONS OF

THE INDONESIAN PROPERTYTHE INDONESIAN PROPERTY

YEAR 2009 TO 2014YEAR 2009 TO 2014



In 5 Year, There Are155,000 “Rusunami”

Units Will Be BuiltAutomatically By Big

Developers

To Open The AccessFor Foreigner To Buy

Condominium With The“HGB” Rights

Extended For 70 Years

INDONESIA WILL BECOME "MACAN ASIA PROPERTI"INDONESIA WILL BECOME "MACAN ASIA PROPERTI"

INDONESIAINDONESIA

Each Developer Who Sell

Every Unit CondominiumTo The Foreigner “Must

Be Build 3 UnitsRusunami”

Potential Market For

Condominium FromForeigner 55,000 Unit

/year @IDR 2 Bio orIDR 110 Trio/year

"MACAN ASIA"MACAN ASIAPROPERTI"PROPERTI"



PROPERTY YIELD COMPARISONPROPERTY YIELD COMPARISON

Rank City & CountryYield

(%)Grade

1 Jakarta, Indonesia 13.40 Spectacular

2 Manila, Filipina 11.23 Spectacular 3 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 8.91 Very Good

4 Seoul, Korea Selatan 8.75 Very Good

5 Bangkok, Thailand 7.64 Good

6 Tokyo, Jepang 4.69 Poor

7 Shanghai, China 4.36 Poor8 Mumbai, India 3.27 Very Poor

9 Singapura 2.80 Very Poor

Sumber : Global Property Guide



THANK YOUTHANK YOU

DR. Ir. Panangian Simanungkalit, M.Sc, RIM DR. Ir. Panangian Simanungkalit, M.Sc, RIM

investasi_property

Documents