Slide 1

Kuliah Pemasaran Minyak dan Gas BumiS2 TEKNIK PERMINYAKANUNIVERSITAS TRISAKTIMaret 2014

MAIZAR RAHMANDINAMIKA ENERGI DAN MINYAK DUNIAMaizar Rahman_Trisakti_201411 PERMINTAAN ENERGI DUNIA TUMBUH MAKIN CEPAT Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_20142Diolah dari sumber: WEO 2013, IEA3.7 milyar org 197120062035

6.5 milyar org8.7 milyar org1.49 toe/org1.80 toe/org2.1 toe/org+21%+27%5.5 Gtoe11.7 Gtoe18.6 Gtoe+58%+127%+33%+75%Skenario dewasa iniMaizar Rahman, Seminar Nasional Bioteknologi , 15-16 November 20062Peningkatan permintaan energi disebabkan oleh peningkatan jumlah maupun kesejahteraan penduduk dunia. Selama 25 tahun dari 1971 sampai 2006 penduduk dunia naik sebesar 175 % menjadi 6,5 miliar sedangkan konsumsi per kapita naik sebesar 21% yang menyebabkan konsumsi energi dunia naik sebesar 112% atau 11,7 milyar ton setara minyak per tahun. Pada tahun 2030 jumlah penduduk diperkirakan menjadi 8,2 milyar orang dan konsumsi per kapita pun meningkat 27% menjadi 2,1 ton setara minyak per tahun sehingga konsumsi dunka akan menjadi 17 miliar ton setara minyak per tahun.The world energy demand is growing, due to the growth of world population and the improvement of living standards.3

10 BESAR PERTUMBUHAN PENDUDUK 2010-2035WOO 2012 OPECMaizar Rahman_Trisakti_20140.9%/th0.2%/th0.9%/thDunia: 0.9%/thAfrika : 2.3 %/th4GDP growth[C+I+G+(X-M)]Private Consumption (C)Retail salesConfidenceWages/salariesWealth effectsGross Investment (e.g. housing) (I)Government Spending (Fiscal policy) (G)External Sector: (Exports, Imports) (X-M)Output related indicatorsLead indicators as PMI surveys (manufacturing, non-manufacturing)Manufacturing orders and actual industrial productionLabor MarketMonetary policyInflationFinancial sectorInterest rates Equity/bond marketsMaizar Rahman_Trisakti_2014Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_20145

WEO-IEA 2013Correlation of economic growth and energy demand6Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_2014

Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_20147

EKONOMI DUNIA, PERMINTAAN DAN HARGA MINYAKUS$ / bblPertumbuhan GDP (%)Pertumbuhan Permintaan Minyak (%)Harga Minyak (US$/bbl)Krisis Finansial AsiaKrisis Finansial DuniaCTT: HARGA MINYAK PADA KRISIS FINANSIAL 2008 SUATU ANOMALIMaizar Rahman_Trisakti_20148

Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_20149

PERMINTAAN ENERGI PRIMER DUNIASKENARIO DASARIEA-WEO 2009Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_20141011Pertumbuhan Permintaan Minyak Mentah Global(Tahun 2009 2011)Sumber : IEA 10 Februari 2011Indonesian Crude Oil Price (ICP) Februari 2011Jakarta, 1 Maret 2011

Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_2014 NEGARA BERKEMBANG MENDOMINASI PERTUMBUHAN PERMINTAAN MINYAK Juta barel/hariSumber: World Oil Outlook 2012 OPEC. 201520202030OECD45.845.242.6Negara Berkembang40.846.356.0Eks Eropa Timur5.25.45.6Dunia91.896.9104.2Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_2014Maizar Rahman, Seminar Nasional Bioteknologi , 15-16 November 20061213

CINA DAN INDIA MENDOMINASI PERMINTAAN ENERGI ASIA pertumbuhan ekonomi dan penduduk sangat berpengaruhKen Koyama, PhD, Global Oil Demand: Outlook and Uncertainties, 4th Joint OPEC-IEA Workshop, May 19, 2006 , Oslo, NorwayMaizar Rahman_Trisakti_2014Maizar Rahman, Seminar Nasional Bioteknologi , 15-16 November 200613

Tingkat Konsumsi Negara Berkembang Masih Rendah

Barel/Penduduk/TahunPendapatan (PPP) $/Penduduk/TahunSumber: Rossi.V.Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_20141414NE Asia: GDPKETERGANTUNGAN IMPOR MINYAK NEGARA-NEGARA DI DUNIA

IEA-WEO 2009Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_201415

KETERGANTUNGAN ASEAN THD IMPOR MINYAKIEA-WEO 2009 Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_201416

ASIA TIMUR TERMASUK INDONESIA SANGAT TERGANTUNG MINYAK TIMUR TENGAHOPEC ASB 201317Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_2014KETERGANTUNGAN THD OPEC AKAN MENINGKAT

SUMBER: OPEC SECRETARIATCADANGAN TERBUKTI DUNIA (MILYARD BBL):NON-OPEC: 299, OPEC: 890Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_20141818

MINYAK NONKONVENSIONAL DAN BIOFUEL AKAN MAKIN BERPERANIEA-WEO 2010Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_201419

INDONESIA BUKAN PRODUSEN BESAR MINYAK DUNIAMaizar Rahman_Trisakti_201420

PRODUKSI MINYAK INDONESIA PER KAPITA SANGATLAH KECILSumber : ASB 2010-2011 OPECMaizar Rahman_Trisakti_201421Oil Production Per CapitaReferensi :ASB 2010-2011, OPEC21Sumber : ASB 2010-2011 OPEC

BAREL/PENDUDUKCADANGAN MINYAK INDONESIA PER KAPITA SANGATLAH KECILMaizar Rahman_Trisakti_201422OPECs Member Oil Reserves per CapitaReference :ASB 2010-2011, OPEC22

KONSUMSI MINYAK INDONESIA PER KAPITA JUGA MASIH RENDAH DAN BERPOTENSI MENINGKAT SANGAT TINGGI SESUAI PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMISumber : ASB 2010-2011 OPECMaizar Rahman_Trisakti_201423NERACA MINYAK MENTAH INDONESIA

IEA-WEO 2009 Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_201424Sampai saat ini produksi minyak Indonesia belum menunjukkan kenaikan. Dengan upaya keras baru dapat menstabilisasi produksi pada tingkat 950 ribu barel per hari. Menurut kajian Indonesia Energy Outlook 2008, produksi nasional menurun dengan laju 4,4% per tahun sehingga pada tahun 2030 menjadi sekitar 354 ribu barel per hari. Skenario ini tentu akan berubah apabila ditemukan beberapa lapangan minyak baru yang signifikan jumlah cadangannya, upaya mana memerlukan kegiatan eksplorasi yang sangat ekstensif. 24

CADANGAN MINYAK TERBUKTI DUNIA HANYA UNTUK 30 TAHUN KONSUMSIEIA-DOE World Energy Outlook 2010Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_201425

CADANGAN BARU MINYAK MAKIN SULIT DITEMUKANIEA-WEO 2010Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_201426KUANTIFIKASI SUMBER DAYA MINYAK SEBAGAI FUNGSI BIAYA

IEA-WEO 2008Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_201427

Maizar Rahman_Trisakti_201428Menurut Dewan Penasehat Perubahan Iklim Jerman, sampai tahun 2050 pangsa energi terbarukan akan telah mencapai 50% dari bauran energi dunia dan mencapai 90% pada tahun 2100. Sebagian besar dari energi terbarukan tersebut akan didominasi oleh energi listrik dari tenaga matahari. Pangsa minyak dan batu bara akan mulai menurun mulai tahun 2030, sementara pangsa gas meningkat dari sekarang dan baru mulai tururn pada tahun 2050. Energi biomasa juga meningkat sampai tahun 2040 namun pangsanya hanya ...% pada tahun 2100. Pemakaian energi anginpun mulai menonjol pada tahun 2020 namun jumlahnya tidak lagi meningkat pada tahun 2040 dan pangsanya pada tahun 2100 hanya ...%.28TERIMA KASIHMaizar Rahman_Trisakti_201429

Lahir di Bukittinggi, May 8th, 1948. Kawin, 3 putri.1974, Sarjana Kimia, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta.1976, 1983, Docteur Ingenieur, Chemical Engineering in Petroleum Sciences from IFP, France ---------------------- 1998-2002 Kepala Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan Teknologi Minyak dan Gas Bumi LEMIGAS. 2006 Dikukuhkan Profesor Riset. 2011- sekarang, Ketua Scientific Board, Badan Litbang Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral, Kementerian ESDM

PENUGASAN NTERNATIONAL2004 Acting for Secretary General, OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), Vienna, Austria. 20052008, OPEC Governor for Indonesia.

PENUGASAN DI KORPORASI2002-2004 Sekretaris Dewan Komisaris Pemerintah untuk PERTAMINA (DKPP). 2002-2006 Presiden Komisaris PT Chandra Asri Petrochemicals Dec 2006-May 2010 Komisaris PT PERTAMINA (Persero)

e-mail: maiza548@yahoo.com, maiza548@gmail.comphone: +62 21 7243421, fax: +62 21 7226930 mobiles: +62 816 894723, +62 811 8110211, Prof. Dr. Maizar RahmanChart18.70314.14338.70314.14334.28369.7619.382915.02279.382915.02274.7444410.080310.536715.524610.536715.52465.2665410.403811.550716.69411.550716.6945.760910.794613.039317.377613.039317.37766.2221411.045414.410518.390214.410518.39026.7345411.385315.860319.382115.860319.38217.3934512.092216.915620.66616.915620.6668.1437112.897318.884721.791718.884721.79179.0469813.455821.023123.503821.023123.50389.8776513.788823.564125.464623.564125.464610.8420614.718225.51726.033725.51726.033711.6455314.869927.253128.244527.253128.244512.4031815.150531.107528.612831.107528.612813.3835415.233330.881727.917230.881727.917214.1694514.723927.301130.93127.301130.93115.3216214.41830.95011431.31058630.95011431.31058616.2248414.441431.54705133.01434931.54705133.01434917.0089915.298730.22678336.70351730.22678336.70351717.9803516.449431.73827636.02612431.73827636.02612418.4888217.303727.38844838.06265227.38844838.06265218.9865618.047123.37689339.27600723.37689339.27600719.1491818.437419.68323441.56556619.68323441.56556619.521819.243718.52958641.76961418.52958641.76961420.1757819.749818.44016742.55353318.44016742.55353320.8572520.598617.09933343.92916717.09933343.92916721.0682920.896719.16679743.65350319.16679743.65350321.794920.535419.09619945.09720119.09619945.09720122.1974220.577920.99218945.23881120.99218945.23881122.7374320.437523.08468944.03071123.08468944.03071122.7482419.574924.27420442.47819624.27420442.47819622.4319119.505724.75276942.65753124.75276942.65753121.4491919.900126.01077442.06592626.01077442.06592620.4590720.198526.79268341.40131726.79268341.40131719.7603620.259127.15691641.48408427.15691641.48408419.4712421.137427.84757141.97332927.84757141.97332919.9895521.224728.72841742.98278328.72841742.98278320.394121.780530.41489142.73020930.41489142.73020921.0083622.018530.90808742.43431330.90808742.43431321.3398921.940829.67635345.01384729.67635345.01384721.6737721.326230.21245.742930.21245.742922.3226321.8230.24746.431530.24746.431524.611421.820129.18447.772429.18447.772425.870621.901829.70448.615529.70448.615526.881621.733929.78249.763129.78249.763127.878221.884929.7251.284229.7251.284229.167122.117130.06852.41330.06852.41330.224122.188930.78753.196730.78753.196731.022822.173931.83653.679231.83653.679231.779721.899532.96154.126832.96154.126832.49621.630834.09854.588134.09854.588133.213121.37535.32254.98835.32254.98833.800321.187736.43855.516436.43855.516434.359221.157237.72355.905637.72355.905634.881821.023839.08756.257139.08756.257135.359820.897340.56756.524340.56756.524335.745720.778642.04856.728842.04856.728836.063320.665543.58356.905243.58356.905236.387420.517845.30756.920345.30756.920336.563920.356447.05756.94947.05756.94936.748820.200248.88356.920348.88356.920336.869320.05150.68956.809950.68956.809936.941119.868852.53656.692152.53656.692136.998619.693554.41756.574754.41756.574737.050719.52456.34556.452156.34556.452137.092219.359958.33256.314758.33256.314737.112119.2026

non-OPECOPECOECDnon-OECDHistoryProjectionUQEOOBnon-OPECUQEOOBnon-OPECmb/d

figure 1.1

figure 1.113.697102234313.845212022312.382971311512.561997950812.522750128312.9985099602196119611961196112.597011583196219621962196212.2424990619196319631963196311.8354026602196419641964196411.4077832168196519651965196510.905713649196619661966196610.473919743219671967196719679.992728943319681968196819689.521282101219691969196919697.658746478919701970197019708.773739933519711971197119719.386296711197219721972197211.5801713173197319731973197336.4905877219197419741974197433.3275894849197519751975197533.2669154721197619761976197633.3441752933197719771977197731.9829011841197819781978197840.5108537565197919791979197961.9684640148198019801980198064.9715522133198119811981198160.7259143682198219821982198251.7619935976198319831983198348.085373378198419841984198444.2758808356198519851985198521.4118389934198619861986198627.1481532417198719871987198720.9823182162198819881988198824.4811747491198919891989198930.1451653926199019901990199024.1854362506199119911991199123.2267729427199219921992199220.0466817179199319931993199318.6899370046199419941994199419.716084199519951995199523.1337578239199619961996199620.8116203545199719971997199713.4229633645199819981998199818.749669694519991999199919.048591603928.94758019382000200029.520253546622.62451317323.7714603956200123.861496010126.18220777319.968116805724.440672968524.440718.401697519625.584837545119.704248510427.624.776192479822.52519.70624.679216613224.210739601621.986991187624.431191395519.705158542524.203162513523.661025279821.485101148223.87481471519.704766439623.7162326623.123021725520.994390276523.330919146719.703863947423.206064454722.598545523920.516217450922.799511002419.703753802722.708559888122.085749950420.518228203322.281959378719.701561885722.220110967521.584646057820.516939358121.775333374319.701912905421.74414280421.095208804520.515923503321.27972615919.702276351121.277292576420.615939817320.515216568521.279714570719.701180354520.819683805720.616571098620.514747542921.280915295119.700965697120.372822299720.615024501620.514129347621.281256515219.700789202919.935219911420.615677241920.514512191121.28040580519.701107921419.935277640620.616315011120.513246784321.280343698219.702628553419.935383912220.616388185520.513362257321.281015585819.702801561219.934261930620.61521591820.512978800621.280559337619.701442813519.93396799420.616216119820.511799017421.281176764419.701969209719.93445020820.615985140320.512276394621.281062768419.70102088319.935165738920.615445128520.511955693121.280605361119.702246244

20042003200220012000Real oil price forecasts in OWEM, $(2003)/b

figure 1.2

figure 1.228.947580193828.947580193828.947580193828.947580193828.947580193828.947580193828.947580193828.947580193828.947580193823.77146039562001200120012001200120012001200124.44067296852002200220022002200220022002200227.627.627.627.627.627.627.627.627.624.679216613225.60339848724.508404438324.394145520324.028241448324.78883619723.805037739123.264903057724.074883177324.203162513523.751232394421.763111888121.560664335720.918709677422.26420.531877619.61071428572123.7162326623.892258955121.763111888121.641041828721.084168245622.435575092620.531877619.590027832220.899033782723.206064454724.034122882421.763111888121.721718966621.250935524422.608472410120.531877619.569363199820.798553002322.708559888124.176829148521.763111888121.802696866321.419021865222.782702141820.531877619.548720365720.698555325122.220110967524.320382754721.763111888121.883976649221.588437701322.958274556120.531877619.528099306720.599038428121.74414280424.464788732421.763111888121.965559440621.759193548423.135220.531877619.507520.521.277292576424.605863590122.153730862321.500929951222.292704574823.325638866620.531877619.589381158220.399009864720.819683805724.747751948222.551360928721.046128600522.839296693323.517645342920.531877619.671606005920.298517241920.372822299724.890458497722.95612792720.600947497323.399290637623.711232332620.531877619.754175985820.198519680719.935219911425.033987956723.368159955820.165183148123.973015005523.906412845920.531877619.837092546520.099014742419.935277640625.178345070423.787587412619.738636363624.560806451624.103220.531877619.92035714292019.935383912225.339370797824.198297837919.3160283332201624.293762856120.531877619.878899224319.898984732419.934261930625.501426350124.616099484718.9024684226201724.485832325520.531877619.837527587219.79847966919.93396799425.664518313325.041114788418.4977629098201824.679420319720.531877619.796242052119.69848223319.93445020825.828653315825.473468298118.1017222205201924.874538844420.531877619.755042439819.598989860319.935165738925.993838028225.913286713317.7141608392202025.071220.531877619.713928571419.519.934729061726.214326223326.30609133142021202125.2806316838202119.7345283328202119.935224024326.436684671126.7048502492022202225.4918128503202219.7551496195202219.934161722626.660929235627.10965372382023202325.7047581138202319.7757924541202319.934660740726.887075915427.52059338172024202425.9194822105202419.7964568592202419.93473825527.115140845127.93776223782025202526.136202519.81714285712025

EIA, IEA, Global Insight, PIRAOPEC, PEL, NRCan, DBAB, EEAOWEMEIAIEAPELPIRAGINRCanDBABEEAReal basket price $(2003)/b: a comparison of projections

figure 1.3The changing ranking of regional GDP20002025

figure 1.310974979748264418.129351692.41653.51590.41549.31449.41139.9363.76

2000

figure 1.4231022140616402106367362.64213.94106.83938.93356.13283.52656.7953.88

2025

figure 1.4 continuedGDP per capita growth*, %pa* 5-year moving averages as thicker lines

figure 1.4 continued1.7487166544.04629368554.5089488592-1.2153780579-1.19432713163.98220646793.00937388394.1301961422.2364930199-0.99535633671.8490014183-3.17065997422.1866257595.56820799672.65101905691.55924173542.1685845662.7923624412.20037082660.5711084627-1.50009872121.56994933741.18880581342.65353035670.53113332742.01948188543.12011830722.90349627972.74445014263.1717458422-1.50083653850.3951890641.68071659912.96559790712.47875841091.98410370081.97590650911.97887652221.98132996962.08036441721.88271114561.88261170671.88501353051.88520871621.88337606941.77953406571.78335883381.88949893431.88382761851.88614820151.78250008551.78450320151.789783841.78137540331.7881231158

Latin AmericaNorth America

figure 2.12.71759529133.76507997915.01126516341.6054016256-0.80845575764.15406260462.39950768732.46737449952.86338785980.4461821521-0.53929614390.24287424421.452155912.02778778032.18173785112.43927320142.46790601073.47076808492.81566966084.27563884440.52464846440.5702211826-0.4702884351.94073348832.33139493421.64049031632.51254032462.53926322952.06750592673.15260415530.88569934831.69884716660.69370328291.99861774771.99341295351.98927745711.99147449861.99424461231.99572786152.09586464332.09452549822.09835128542.09463907442.09970693112.0901196362.20300769242.19291553072.19830884262.20408780922.19109393682.19946552212.19964990852.30081764592.29863692692.3014959724

Latin AmericaWestern Europe

figure 2.22.79420914745.79325196856.4895576048-1.43922637211.26788691413.25077144553.20387827393.93807596314.45232422961.41859746472.25920549972.13616520831.86382100163.74931496673.91140527522.77159683634.31080998155.99553331824.51034025774.57992567262.88159951821.06186945150.81190402531.86588611082.42027492393.40566785571.9669694605-1.85785520041.741137833.39081823010.76778817780.09492232292.29546254851.99376265491.49594405912.09542736122.09722344392.19732527652.19842931042.20021056081.99267314042.09965127532.10117844822.0999719772.20608793832.10071730092.10116041262.10243114082.20314099052.20470627292.10327379222.20671173372.20887099972.20369716872.3081815118

Latin AmericaOECD Pacific

figure 2.32.19315490560.03542608193.31316301192.55490226-2.1679871268-1.5859745528-4.8866670975-0.46227637312.78678828751.13430980961.0847649429-2.0522664971-3.05060388350.3057304273-0.64823780920.18178034741.09578740581.138047193-1.36294078480.2438524163-2.0749048662-2.6729096895-0.81824137881.53187713880.74469832762.89213951862.1018360225-0.10423766850.10363644671.09604754151.23523506111.66267610380.97394671761.761933641.56886175921.27472639431.36742322491.37279056241.37481117261.47125464491.47155226971.46731594691.56616168341.56714502821.57034055381.67322418881.66927920561.66947656091.77268531231.77181808191.77087159861.87492553231.87112790651.87362108751.9694463731

Latin AmericaMiddle East & Africa

figure 2.43.57140560853.81899517945.63370967330.82581724612.85819371287.74125773145.74646460525.35064747044.79426484463.46294907983.06117501492.23724738023.07127363041.2170720239-1.34875728824.2547751876.40833389766.37608943655.94899855843.90274603893.07572021343.78731145614.49462531595.0664610414.65328045344.17174874183.0575196981-3.68652381443.88963231714.5254660084-0.14295476511.08604365542.46234732693.25634952963.05595269072.96478485032.96252596572.95803794623.06393140993.06660156142.74423981992.76231695182.86402285182.8671340392.86684840962.7695151252.77376304752.5754321952.67573883042.47568530422.48099225842.28002198582.38241161922.38030426582.3803727032

Latin AmericaSouth East Asia

figure 2.519717.07809605355.39698005917.21037012445.38071756920.13647693845.76803375482.78994586752.90062475152.92402756973.0922485197-3.4340057188-3.2765722277-4.74408693132.5708568064.78017334054.813114121.5195136996-0.80795420461.7447824198-4.046945009-1.5853932619-0.91167385052.54402371423.61524905793.01502188651.77147558942.4303231877-0.2937687879-0.74527891392.4929179898-0.70362886341.0912031116-0.59508011332.47180137872.877586142.87435448552.97746436652.97178983852.98065399532.97668530872.77228498182.77770896392.77753954092.77441844512.88236787742.58077834692.58718608572.57973082482.68793316352.68413187732.48853464832.48745827612.58591623582.59204229042.5887464402

Latin AmericaLatin America

figure 2.6GDP per capita growth*, %pa* 5-year moving averages as thicker lines

figure 2.66.91612834158.03523801535.69480255322.55429911461.605638830910.55660642133.8135230564-5.1862264685-0.2026250886-4.9885904929-4.1667198256-2.04371702381.2113350544-0.4092550942-1.9182336188-3.9736539519-0.0499137852-1.1193978171.49127754863.19491277113.35149070723.05901778930.66617223250.78329973122.82244183053.6243263532.5687460387-5.2756769937-1.25233789652.66458023541.21214440421.96168557060.68743566512.75168471642.15935925742.26113206472.26282417942.25888551772.36573367062.35984626211.47886798431.98962661422.16821265832.21909592962.25164911672.2802423752.29633445312.30335998242.41463804572.41418237722.31666265482.31822754252.31526428882.31217729372.3138463279

Latin AmericaOPEC

figure 2.7-1.2434952288-4.01925501141.5071626223-0.51958346775.9509326110.27414377554.99427063923.5094952026-4.99317472123.49789248183.65124711621.39473663344.79830085111.60638297873.84833617042.52762832342.80682680996.51475472672.94775335023.3602249273-0.28187536863.05994457212.30217638684.82382924634.83563246194.74236164912.2227501494.14215886884.54549977972.41295108822.93976197153.82438335414.93279718384.41959380064.34065177973.93134496523.93242451633.95479343244.02607762124.05130423254.03888585444.15382513034.13553419984.14294813744.25196357153.7421767023.74487673613.76128445553.85399050823.86390830033.44812040113.56976035443.55973633843.5625536253.6714773296

Latin AmericaSouth Asia

figure 2.84.22565895372.196955864210.23150668642.14914322975.0357985585-4.11687910846.58552223086.29911233686.08175176625.58292561473.2110221377.03834345818.355755441212.910605838714.55965420997.22862332239.7404098219.54384849952.46919323172.38828198497.852465150912.947608402212.318855961511.5480647887.88709471788.74859758579.09968075286.85129802616.19743322737.14003016396.46720342636.04210134637.6383734437.14119403136.651501826.15931470175.95116059255.96284238115.95097199325.95845791565.95267172065.86924013445.76768631115.66205673955.67201218535.57036496465.4727950135.47278233315.57433535095.57818172875.0779607215.07725777245.18265784345.18118911475.1834057474

Latin AmericaChina

figure 2.94.48621789443.1867081447.59948293094.8761201013.35261341294.98872850713.80891798473.55830514271.66355104051.50956333312.41725403753.07690259483.2733459531.79517995680.87736815951.6906532580.85846976463.23651626571.6509902583-5.3410424281-7.2087441727-14.700453266-10.2393242698-14.2403428811-5.5686353707-3.34429289842.1382826696-2.92394293395.3822767958.71859225216.3019858789-2.14117926796.61373028485.50878151564.01182788364.00667593664.00973076194.00373345694.00903649544.00968143673.80586051123.60983637253.50593593343.50385203913.50576601143.40751206313.40881969723.40696147433.40851108383.40618748423.20761246563.20555593073.20456859273.20655172833.2058519872

Latin AmericaFSU

figure 2.105.56761377373.11275530673.12214012865.47124831993.92033786777.56006764275.36132216366.12158072565.70954278272.91983278290.90396182.04782801862.08254464443.7482750489-0.12849073663.05012379110.5191789627-0.6890321392-2.1858103813-4.9723983144-12.2834971779-8.6535085442-5.80177244713.08796686985.46731607423.78487503171.30790541960.95699060930.23553956284.06489498023.67095617954.30325374043.90495947424.70833747655.21083076784.60803414834.610469314.60724330534.6098397214.60976221654.40853188874.31220115054.11411952584.11115586764.11265806433.91172358623.9115299653.91276006043.91189873054.01519666713.81493550693.81451827133.81682715363.8141633843.8168035235

Latin AmericaOther Europe

figure 2.112.5271067511.91711484582.30262470153.88946859730.31255509970.61653119662.685737293-0.93554714723.23928062581.0279918706-2.1083334061-2.0192988339-0.35450584031.5844071788-2.19766995722.92932838761.7341134163-1.019232574-4.3681082540.22223466092.6918096852.15548736131.87880254893.47339428851.11297564682.61533623833.9090600049-0.4418766258-1.86576007711.0138474363-1.463293501-4.1311835543.24844395932.163041772.26721608372.26533698012.26245585572.27128808442.36402558262.36555427532.27032916132.36720901542.37115274472.37032303942.36526645622.37266389832.37194658452.37111050132.47639403982.46869294542.37567557922.37254974052.37592628742.37316476252.3737662262

Latin AmericaDC exporters

figure 2.12

figure 2.121.80268.05927.8287

2000-2025Growth in oil demand, 2002-2025, mb/d

figure 2.13

figure 2.1324.71494.515147.7264

&APage &P2000Oil Demand: 2002

not used52.54366.317755.7854

&APage &P2020Oil Demand: 2025

Sheet4

Sheet40.2370.1070.085050000000000.0713750.05056250.20228750.62020000000000.07743750.01530000000000.21973333330.05793333330.03077333330000000000.13029333330.07353333330.26980666670.877920000000000.05680.0139133333

2002-20102010-2025OECDOECDDCsDCstransition economiestransition economiesAsiaOPEC & other exp.N. Am.N. Am.W. Eur.W. Eur.OECD Pac.OECD PacificAsiaOPEC & other exp.Africa & M.E.L. Am.FSUFSUotherotherL. Am.Africa & M.E.N. AmericaW. EuropeOECD PacificLatin AmericaAfrica & Middle EastOPEC & other exportersAsiaRussiaother EuropeAnnual growth in oil demand, 2002-2025, mb/d pa

0.357564560.3617166578-0.018614160.6561519289-0.221737416-0.120146672-0.0406057760.55127632-0.0727076720.0997233040.0458305920.6823244240.0416238320.2173820640.2248176880.6851536960.07926646930.24419823470.22650240.8240537493

1971-19801980-19901990-20002010-20252000-2010Elec. Gen.IndustryHH/CommTransportAnnual global growth in oil demand by sector, mboe/d

0.09022613330.0766609778-0.10443384890.3904667556-0.157493464-0.15515816-0.117508160.35700232-0.027670240.081083040.0096203280.45270360.0026385120.025160240.0505252960.193711760.00260504530.02137850670.017630240.15244736

1971-19801980-19901990-20002010-20252000-2010Elec. Gen.IndustryHH/CommTransportAnnual growth in oil demand by sector in OECD countries, mboe/d

0.11568311110.17550589330.02733111110.187587360.0071404480.0473265520.0948298080.1640756880.0661917120.1801336640.133210720.3474783760.0546336640.1713667360.1714691440.3894375440.08491296530.21348118930.21374089070.602476304

1971-19801980-19901990-20002010-20252000-2010Elec. Gen.IndustryHH/CommTransportAnnual growth in oil demand by sector in Developing Countries, mboe/d

0.15165531560.10954978670.05848857780.0780978133-0.0713844-0.012315064-0.0179274240.030198312-0.111229144-0.1614934-0.097000456-0.117857552-0.0156483440.0208550880.0028232480.102004392-0.00825154130.0093385387-0.00486873070.0691300853

1971-19801980-19901990-20002010-20252000-2010Elec. Gen.IndustryHH/CommTransportAnnual growth in oil demand by sector in Transition Economies, mboe/d

25.132736334533.9421326334543.3258112334553.3142178334564.1022249334575.674579334588.10155613345101.40186073345115.57138833345130.86374543345147.52845953345165.78670813345184.90819123345205.43015633345227.45466143345249.07086153345270.39808963345293.12637523345316.65520533345340.98327393345365.62107753345389.43373763345412.25977123345434.57447683345456.51471093345478.64098553345500.69812163345523.37740373345546.54315433345570.43826643345594.65177053345618.74831863345643.05792473345667.41256433345691.77683993345716.33345741.91318153345768.04542953345794.2445093345820.9386383345848.1166113345875.49624653345902.96527053345930.6370753345958.47891953345986.562453533451014.89344433451043.481782533451072.363930233451101.555253633451131.064147733451160.899737533451190.878115633451221.256805333451252.049822633451283.268482533451314.808547933451346.733195733451379.025236733451411.725329633451444.867526633451478.469963633451512.544138133451547.102606133451582.158872633451617.72936263345

Mean URR assessment1727 billion bbls41 Yearsbn barrelsWorld cumulative oil production and the resource base

0.5363.51184.3783.30396.4691.93628.3160.3969.449-0.6056

OPECnon-OPECIncremental OPEC and non-OPEC production, mb/d

8.70314.14338.70314.14334.28369.7619.382915.02279.382915.02274.7444410.080310.536715.524610.536715.52465.2665410.403811.550716.69411.550716.6945.760910.794613.039317.377613.039317.37766.2221411.045414.410518.390214.410518.39026.7345411.385315.860319.382115.860319.38217.3934512.092216.915620.66616.915620.6668.1437112.897318.884721.791718.884721.79179.0469813.455821.023123.503821.023123.50389.8776513.788823.564125.464623.564125.464610.8420614.718225.51726.033725.51726.033711.6455314.869927.253128.244527.253128.244512.4031815.150531.107528.612831.107528.612813.3835415.233330.881727.917230.881727.917214.1694514.723927.301130.93127.301130.93115.3216214.41830.95011431.31058630.95011431.31058616.2248414.441431.54705133.01434931.54705133.01434917.0089915.298730.22678336.70351730.22678336.70351717.9803516.449431.73827636.02612431.73827636.02612418.4888217.303727.38844838.06265227.38844838.06265218.9865618.047123.37689339.27600723.37689339.27600719.1491818.437419.68323441.56556619.68323441.56556619.521819.243718.52958641.76961418.52958641.76961420.1757819.749818.44016742.55353318.44016742.55353320.8572520.598617.09933343.92916717.09933343.92916721.0682920.896719.16679743.65350319.16679743.65350321.794920.535419.09619945.09720119.09619945.09720122.1974220.577920.99218945.23881120.99218945.23881122.7374320.437523.08468944.03071123.08468944.03071122.7482419.574924.27420442.47819624.27420442.47819622.4319119.505724.75276942.65753124.75276942.65753121.4491919.900126.01077442.06592626.01077442.06592620.4590720.198526.79268341.40131726.79268341.40131719.7603620.259127.15691641.48408427.15691641.48408419.4712421.137427.84757141.97332927.84757141.97332919.9895521.224728.72841742.98278328.72841742.98278320.394121.780530.41489142.73020930.41489142.73020921.0083622.018530.90808742.43431330.90808742.43431321.3398921.940829.67635345.01384729.67635345.01384721.6737721.326230.21245.742930.21245.742922.3226321.8230.24746.431530.24746.431524.611421.820129.18447.772429.18447.772425.870621.901829.70448.615529.70448.615526.881621.733929.78249.763129.78249.763127.878221.884929.7251.284229.7251.284229.167122.117130.06852.41330.06852.41330.224122.188930.78753.196730.78753.196731.022822.173931.83653.679231.83653.679231.779721.899532.96154.126832.96154.126832.49621.630834.09854.588134.09854.588133.213121.37535.32254.98835.32254.98833.800321.187736.43855.516436.43855.516434.359221.157237.72355.905637.72355.905634.881821.023839.08756.257139.08756.257135.359820.897340.56756.524340.56756.524335.745720.778642.04856.728842.04856.728836.063320.665543.58356.905243.58356.905236.387420.517845.30756.920345.30756.920336.563920.356447.05756.94947.05756.94936.748820.200248.88356.920348.88356.920336.869320.05150.68956.809950.68956.809936.941119.868852.53656.692152.53656.692136.998619.693554.41756.574754.41756.574737.050719.52456.34556.452156.34556.452137.092219.359958.33256.314758.33256.314737.112119.2026

non-OPECOPECOECDnon-OECDHistoryProjectionUQEOOBnon-OPECUQEOOBnon-OPECmb/d

9.1680.30350.31310.01039.4430.32620.33290.01319.7350.33990.34970.015110.0890.35120.37670.015710.2920.35980.4160.017210.5690.36710.47120.019311.2680.37560.46810.022912.0120.4170.47910.03412.520.44480.4840.050912.8220.46890.48740.05613.5960.47680.49010.187313.5820.52140.46810.315813.8050.54430.47980.338713.7820.55870.48190.419513.1310.69680.49310.414712.4690.85250.67280.441712.080.95670.97170.459312.1871.1611.50790.488612.6841.431.91950.482812.7221.72992.46510.478612.7282.34142.64730.447812.5232.79172.81890.438712.5433.23643.1850.437312.6623.19293.64130.426213.0563.22593.97950.511713.1373.17894.15040.599312.8192.99294.2610.626712.6233.13984.3670.619212.5193.1254.33940.623311.7973.14354.23380.571711.5193.13154.38510.637511.513.27354.6510.644411.4813.26945.0010.637411.2693.27785.27790.632911.1523.27766.34280.599611.1833.18266.4660.626411.2343.32366.84270.627811.3063.49816.80330.659511.1793.55866.74320.703210.7133.43136.86650.571810.8163.54626.95010.750610.7923.56566.69530.767810.9183.59316.63370.757110.9123.77516.36640.680511.0433.77856.39630.667611.0983.83626.48590.697211.0463.87546.54420.723710.9963.90336.52460.750310.9483.91096.26360.776910.9033.91096.01310.803710.8613.91095.77260.830410.823.91095.59940.857310.9133.93125.43140.880810.8993.95165.26850.904310.8873.97195.11040.927910.8783.99224.95710.951510.874.01254.80840.975110.8424.01254.66410.998710.8174.01254.52421.002210.7944.01254.38851.005710.7724.01254.25681.009210.7533.97444.12911.012710.7353.93674.00521.016310.723.89943.88511.019910.7063.86243.76851.023410.6943.82583.65551.0271

USA & CanadaW. EuropeMexicoOECD PacificHistoryProjectionUQEOUBUQEOMBUQEOWBUQEOJBmb/dNon-OPEC production, OECD regions

02.7452.745196119613.083196219623.458196319633.826196419644.152196519654.51196619664.922196719675.348196819685.74196919696.097197019706.563197119717.037197219727.474197319738.008197419748.564197519759.159197619769.6691977197710.1331978197810.591979197910.8311980198011.2571981198111.3611982198211.4321983198311.5011984198411.4341985198511.1091986198611.4721987198711.6481988198811.651989198911.3321990199010.651199119919.568.0210.97997.1040.98.0046.3820.8487.236.1660.8837.0496.0530.9487.0016.1421.0337.1756.0921.1157.2076.1291.2427.3716.5021.3317.8336.991.5378.5277.6281.7059.3338.4271.78310.218.9171.87510.7929.2732.01611.2899.6442.17311.8179.8272.33612.16310.0122.51112.52310.2012.712.90110.3942.90213.29610.4983.1213.61810.6033.30713.9110.7093.47214.18110.8163.61114.42710.9243.71914.64311.0333.79414.82711.1443.8715.01411.1443.94715.09111.1444.02615.1711.1444.10615.2511.1444.18915.33311.1444.27215.41611.1444.35815.50211.1444.44515.58911.1444.53415.678

RussiaCaspianRussia & CaspianHistoryProjectionUQEOVBUQEOKBmb/dNon-OPEC production, transition country regions

0.64750.1410.11850.10440.72490.15250.11170.10670.78370.18190.11780.11550.82190.20970.12340.13020.84480.23440.1360.17030.86640.24340.15880.22720.92560.26740.20530.29231.03940.4090.23320.27881.08730.75930.26010.32121.11881.0250.28570.43671.12191.27250.30550.61561.15771.27830.36350.8061.2531.23360.4440.9341.40371.27470.48671.09641.3741.30150.45031.32631.34211.55970.47281.5761.36071.56690.57841.78261.40121.60320.64451.91511.49351.69980.72472.1281.54571.73030.86872.17091.5991.84340.76212.16681.63911.93440.78292.07011.69391.99390.93522.08861.77492.20161.13872.16931.97292.45221.26332.3442.07852.65811.31722.55432.17862.68671.41072.67282.10122.97351.36442.74342.20773.25861.44942.80282.25893.44881.55252.8152.36443.66871.70542.77862.33473.83591.74072.83252.46233.94651.76272.85472.57214.08891.75312.91652.71854.281.88552.93482.95044.52572.01473.01443.17154.64831.98043.16083.37614.74372.04523.22933.60684.78492.05893.23873.73584.832.08033.21793.73544.9472.08383.27813.77164.93532.20473.29743.87425.09372.26843.39343.865.0792.35373.41443.96145.3632.39423.39394.21735.75642.48433.40074.44575.93112.52813.43474.68466.0692.52313.4694.86116.20922.51833.50374.97656.35182.51383.53885.09396.49682.48573.57425.21326.58112.45863.60995.33446.66592.43243.6465.4376.75142.40723.68255.51546.83762.38283.71935.5956.85852.35933.75655.67596.87952.33673.75655.75796.90042.31493.75655.84116.90042.27453.75655.92576.90042.23483.75656.01146.83462.1963.75656.08116.76932.15793.71896.1346.70482.12063.68176.17546.64092.0843.64496.19936.57762.04823.60856.19936.5152.01313.5724

Latin AmericaChinaAsiaAfrica & Middle EastHistoryProjectionUQEOABUQEOQBUQEODBUQEOSBmb/dNon-OPEC production, developing country regions

91.31922398591.67491.319223985990.36097071372.03190.92203137682.29490.92649765483.05287.382892350210.72574.4862413410.73381.477300112411.5179.660811498212.39574.918177506512.70477.716142643817.24577.454009583228.64265.245006630332.50856.001708898732.38353.921398489929.03756.945170209528.20457.188011827627.00765.506019537613.53363.788308106117.72571.407951414214.24380.599451809917.31186.602570951922.25793.019134251718.62295.407284290118.4492.264836697516.32589.662532987415.52789.562948025516.8690.560735419520.29190.164244791918.67688.327322558612.28282.732006447717.47588.573983408227.59684.052513189523.1278.996871633824.185.933419286628.185.327586206980.6312579.131313131376.083086053473.573770491875.037681159472.219354838774.524079320171.450793650875.292817679672.0576.229110512172.864615384677.152631578973.6909090909

oil priceexcl. IraqHistoryProjectionoil price%$/bOPEC capacity utilisation rates, %