Pengantar Demografi

Demografi dan Masalah KesehatanUmi Listyaningsih1

Achille Guillard (1885)Demografi adalah tulisan-tulisan atau karangan-karangan mengenai rakyat atau penduduk.2

Donald J. Bogue (1973)Demografi adalah ilmu yang mempelajari secara statistik dan matematik tentang besar, komposisi dan distribusi penduduk dan perubahan-perubahannya sepanjang masa melalui bekerjanya lima komponen demografi yaitu kelahiran (fertilitas), kematian (mortalitas), perkawinan, migrasi dan mobilitas sosial.3

Bapak demografi: John GrauntMenganalisis data kelahiran dan kematian yang diperoleh dari catatan kematian (bills of mortality) yang setiap minggu diterbitkan oleh petugas gereja.Mencetuskan hukum-hukum tentang pertumbuhan penduduk (Natural and Political Observations, Made Upon the Bills of Mortality, 1662).4

Ilmu demografi terbagi menjadi duaDemografi murni (pure demography)Demografi formal yang menghasilkan teknik-teknik untuk menghitung indikator-indikator demografi.Studi atau analisis kependudukanStudi mengenai hubungan antara faktor-faktor perubahan penduduk dan faktor-faktor pembangunan.5

Sumber Data Demografi Registrasi Sensus Survey, contoh Survey Demografi dan Kesehatan Indonesia

Ukuran-ukuran demografi Rate: kejadian demografi dinyatakan dalam bentuk tingkat. Contoh Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)=34, artinya setiap 1000 kelahiran hidup terdapat kematian bayi sebanyak 34 Rasio atau perbandingkan, contoh sex ratio at birth = 99, artinya setiap 100 penduduk laki-laki terdapat 99 orang perempuan

Thomas Robert Malthus: Teori Kelebihan PendudukMengembangkan pemikiran yang sudah dikembangkan oleh ayahnya, Daniel Malthus, mengenai hubungan antara penduduk dan pangan.Diterbitkan pertama kali sebagai Essay on the Principle of Population (1798).Kalau tidak ada halangan maka penduduk akan tumbuh menurut deret ukur sedangkan sumber-sumber pangan hanya akan berkembang menurut deret hitung.

10/5/20128

Kritik terhadap MalthusPertimbangan ekonomi: menekankan faktor-faktor seperti perkembangan teknologi, pembagian pekerjaan dan upah.Pertimbangan demografi: terutama penemuan dan pemikiran mengenai perkembangan penduduk (population trends) dan fertilitas, yang berlawanan dengan proposisi klasik Malthus mengenai penduduk (terutama di Eropa).Kelompok Anti-Malthusian berpendapat bahwa masalah jumlah penduduk dapat diatasi dengan lebih efektif melalui upaya pencegahan kelahiran.9

Keterkaitan antara analisis Kependudukan10JUMLAH

STRUKTUR

PERSEBARANSOSIAL

EKONOMI

BUDAYA

LINGKUNGAN

POLITIK

KEAMANANKELAHIRAN

KEMATIAN

PERPINDAHAN

Kebijakan kependudukan di IndonesiaOrde LamaOrde BaruOtonomi daerah11

Orde LamaPronatalisPresiden Soekarno pada tahun 1964 pernah berkata, Bagi saya, penyelesaiannya ialah membuka tanah lebih luas lagi, sebab bila engkau membuka seluruh tanah di Indonesia, engkau dapat memberi makan 250 juta jiwa, dan saya hanya punya 103 juta jiwa ... Dalam negeriku, makin banyak (anak) makin baik.Pembatasan kelahiran terutama kontrasepsi bertentangan dengan moral bangsa Indonesia dan hanya dapat disetujui jika dimaksudkan untuk mengatur kelahiran demi menjaga kesehatan ibu.Ketidaksetujuan tokoh-tokoh agama.Permintaan di kalangan ibu-ibu yang tinggal di wilayah perkotaan dan berpendidikan tinggi.12

Orde BaruAnti-natalisTahun 1967 Presiden Suharto menandatangani United Nations Decalaration on Population bersama 29 pemimpin lain di dunia.Presiden Suharto dalam pidatonya tanggal 16 Agustus 1967 menyatakan: Indonesia harus benar-benar memperhatikan usaha pembatasan kelahiran.Deklarasi mengakui penentuan jumlah dan jarak kelahiran anak sebagai hak dasar manusia.Pembentukan Lembaga Keluarga Berencana Nasional pada Oktober 1968.Pembentukan Badan Koordinasi Keluarga Berencana Nasional pada tahun 1970.

13

Otonomi daerahKebijakan pemerintah daerahIsu utama: kualitas sumber daya manusia penduduk terutama kesehatan, pendidikan, ekonomi, dan mental masih harus ditingkatkan agar penduduk dapat menjadi pelaku dan calon pelaku pembangunan yang efisien dan efektif.

14

FASE IFASE IIFASE IIIFASE IVINDONESIATRANSISI DEMOGRAFI15

1,49 % (SP 2010)16

2010

Tren LPP

1.27LAJU PERTAMBAHAN PENDUDUK 17

FERTILITAS 1

2

3MORTALITASMIGRASI(internal dan eksternal)CBR (15,5 Per 1000 Penduduk)TFR 2,6 anak per wanita usia subur (SDKI 2007 )CDR (6 Per 1000 Penduduk)IMR 34 per 1000 kelahiran hidupdan MMR 228 per 100.000 kelahiran hidup

KOMPONEN PERTUMBUHAN PENDUDUK18

1. Jumlah Penduduk Yang Besar: Laju pertumbuhan dan jumlah pertambahan penduduk masih tinggiINDONESIA : Negara ke-4 TERBESAR di dunia

LPP .......MASALAH KUANTITAS PENDUDUK SAAT INI (1)

Population Pyramids Indonesia, 1961-2010

TRIPLE BURDEN

LANSIA

REMAJA

BALITA DAN ANAK1. Struktur Umur Penduduk Tidak MenguntungkanMASALAH KUANTITAS PENDUDUK SAAT INI (3)

Kuantitas Penduduk: besar dengan LPP Tinggi;Struktur Penduduk kurang menguntungkan:- Jumlah Balita & Anak masih sangat besar- Jumlah penduduk remaja dan usia reproduksi besar momentum pertumbuhan - Jumlah lansia semakin meningkatPersebaran Penduduk timpangKualitas Penduduk masih rendah kematian, pendidikan, kemiskinan HDIPencapaian tidak merata antar wilayahKONDISI SAAT INI (1)

MASALAH KUANTITAS PENDUDUK SAAT INI (2)Persebaran Penduduk tidak merataKepadatan peduduk DKI : 14.476 jiwa/km2

Kepadatan Penduduk PAPUA :9 jiwa/km2

KUALITAS PENDUDUK INDONESIAMMR : 228/100.000 kelahiran hidupIMR : 34 per 1.000 kelahiran hidup60% penduduk hanya tamat SD atau lebih rendah HDI peringkat ke 108 dari 188 Negara (thn 2009) dan urutan ke 6 dari 10 Negara ASEANAngka Harapan Hidup Indonesia: 68/72 TahunAngka kemiskinan: 31,02 juta jiwa (13,3% dari total penduduk Indonesia) *BPS 2010Indikator kesejahteraan sosial lainnya Indeks Pembangunan Gender: 66,38 % (thn 2008)Indeks Pemberdayaan Gender: 62,27% (thn 2008)Angka pengangguran: 7,14% dari angkatan kerja 116,5 juta (BPS, Agustus 2010)

25PENURUNAN MORTALITAS

25

Sebuah proses perubahan tingginya penyakit menular ke penyakit tidak menular

TRANSISI EPIDEMIOLOGI BERKEPANJANGAN DI INDONESIAPeny. MenularPeny. Tdk MenularPeny. Muncul kembaliPeny. BaruHIV/AIDSSIRKULASIPOLIOFLU BURUNGDIARENEOPLASMAMALARIAISPAKECELAKAANTBCTBC

Perubahan masalah kesehatanPerubahan pelayanan kesehatanPenyesuaian regulasi kesehatan

UrbanisasiIndustralisasiPeningkatan pendapatanPendidikanTeknologiKematian krn infeksi menururnFertilitas menurunPenduduk MenuaPenyakit tidak menularBertahannya atau muncul kembali peny. menularHUB TRANSISI DEMOGRAFI DAN EPIDEMIOLOGI

Chart43.5372.11.674.1072.22.084.32.12.114.82.12.374.922.275.11.92.2151.72.044.91.61.834.71.51.594.61.51.44.51.61.264.41.61.134.31.70.994.21.80.8341.90.683.82.10.543.72.30.453.62.50.353.52.70.233.42.90.11

LahirMatiLPPBirthDeathGrowth rateTransisi Demografi, Indonesia, 1950-2050

Both sexes 61-9120:15:00 PM - 20:40 PMPopulation by sex and age group, Indonesia, 1961-1991, According to Projection C (in thousands)Both sexes19611966197119761981198619910-417,77318,70019,26921,70327,38034,36141,6255-915,16516,35817,53418,35920,96226,77133,94610-148,09714,78516,04117,27818,16520,81126,65215-197,6287,89214,48715,79317,07918,01920,70320-248,5197,3537,66314,13115,52616,87517,88225-297,9788,1477,0977,45613,87415,30516,72130-347,3667,6047,8466,8957,29613,66415,15235-396,0836,9927,3017,6056,7357,17313,50440-444,7895,7346,6777,0467,4016,5987,06545-493,8104,4615,4196,3876,8057,2016,45750-542,9433,4844,1475,1066,0876,5466,97555-592,2512,6173,1603,8234,7685,7496,24160-642,0091,9182,2832,8113,4584,3725,33665-691,2421,6031,5731,9182,4133,0223,87770-745938911,1931,2621,5121,9482,48975-792833585687968731,0781,42780-8427313418130545151665985+2171358184132208267Total, both sexes97,019109,166122,520138,758160,917190,217226,9780-1441,03549,84352,84457,34066,50781,943102,22315-6453,37656,20266,08077,05389,029101,502116,03665+2,6083,1213,5964,3655,3816,7728,719Dependency ratio:82%94%85%80%81%87%96%

Total 61-20009:30:00 AM - 9:52 am15:45 pm -16:45pmUrban + RuralMale1961 (total)1961 (working)1961 (no work)1971 (total)1971 (working)1971 (no work)1980 (total)1980 (working)1980 (no work)1990 (total)1990 (working)1990 (no work)2000 (total)2000 (working)2000 (no work)10-144,318,543977,3513,341,1927,353,3701,344,2756,009,0959,131,8711,163,8867,967,98511,044,1271,313,6439,730,48415-6425,796,46923,128,2512,668,21830,406,99325,331,0205,075,97339,971,79332,619,6557,352,13852,497,71744,219,2318,278,48665,446,63554,469,34510,977,29065+1,173,477853,943319,5341,439,842894,998544,8442,188,6091,161,8431,026,7663,142,6741,864,0751,278,5994,291,9073,256,6541,035,253Female1961 (total)1961 (working)1961 (no work)19711971 (working)1971 (no work)1980 (total)1980 (working)1980 (no work)19901990 (working)1990 (no work)2000 (total)2000 (working)2000 (no work)10-143,860,869602,1713,258,6986,826,167938,5525,887,6158,487,163794,2707,692,89310,438,014923,2979,514,71715-6427,451,8188,593,60018,858,21832,937,11012,377,72720,559,38341,972,73315,921,62426,051,10954,304,20224,742,69729,561,50565,414,3703745833827,956,03265+1,235,636343,396892,2401,528,535366,7641,161,7712,581,307485,7622,095,5453,608,432849,5152,758,9174,827,04122457882,581,253Dependancy ratio:no work / work137.20%129.12%122.34%132.98%9.43%

IMR_e(0)Indicator1950-19551955-19601960-19651965-19701970-19751975-19801980-19851985-19901990-19951995-2000Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births)201.2183.4165.8144.1125.5106.488.869.858.649.5Life expectancy at birth, females (years)38.140.743.44750.554586264.566.8Indicator2000-20052005-20102010-20152015-20202020-20252025-20302030-20352035-20402040-20452045-2050Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births)41.634.329.225.321.918.515.913.812.110.5Life expectancy at birth, females (years)68.870.371.572.773.774.976.177.178.178.9IMRe(0)1950-55201.238.11955-60183.440.71960-65165.843.41965-70144.147.01970-75125.550.51975-80106.154.01980-8588.858.01985-9069.862.01990-9558.664.51995-0049.566.82000-0541.668.82005-1034.370.32010-1529.271.52015-2025.372.72020-2521.973.72025-3018.574.92030-3515.976.12035-4013.877.12040-4512.178.12945-5010.578.9

IMR_e(0)

Infant Mortality RateLife ExpectancyIMRe(0)YearRates/yearsTrends in Infant Mortality Rates and Life Expectancy, Indonesia, 1950-2050

B-D=rIndicator1950-19551955-19601960-19651965-19701970-19751975-19801980-19851985-19901990-19951995-2000Population change per year (thousands)1382189721332680289031363222317630212868Births per year, both sexes combined (thousands)3547410743124797491650595024487747174608Deaths per year, both sexes combined (thousands)2163220821742112202119091788162015761560Population growth rate (%)1.672.082.112.372.272.212.041.831.591.4Indicator2000-20052005-20102010-20152015-20202020-20252025-20302030-20352035-20402040-20452045-2050Population change per year (thousands)2751261224112125181214911262991669324Births per year, both sexes combined (thousands)4524443543254160398838163747368135863475Deaths per year, both sexes combined (thousands)1593164317341855199621462305251027372971Population growth rate (%)1.261.130.990.830.680.540.450.350.230.11BirthDeathGrowth rate1950-553.542.101.671955-604.112.202.081960-654.302.102.111965-704.802.102.371970-754.902.002.271975-805.101.902.211980-855.001.702.041985-904.901.601.831990-954.701.501.591995-004.601.501.402000-054.501.601.262005-104.401.601.132010-154.301.700.992015-204.201.800.832020-254.001.900.682025-303.802.100.542030-353.702.300.452035-403.602.500.352040-453.502.700.232945-503.402.900.11

B-D=r

birthsdeathsrate of increaseBirthDeathGrowth rateYearNumber in million, % increaseProjected annual number of births, death and rate of increase, Indonesia, 1950-2050

TFRNRRIndicator1950-19551955-19601960-19651965-19701970-19751975-19801980-19851985-19901990-19951995-2000Total fertility rate (children per woman)5.495.675.425.575.24.734.113.532.6Net reproduction rate (per woman)1.561.71.721.881.861.791.651.471.31.16Indicator2000-20052005-20102010-20152015-20202020-20252025-20302030-20352035-20402040-20452045-2050Total fertility rate (children per woman)2.352.22.12.011.941.861.851.851.851.85Net reproduction rate (per woman)1.071.010.980.940.910.890.880.880.890.89TFRNRR1950-555.491.561955-605.671.701960-655.421.721965-705.571.881970-755.201.861975-804.731.791980-854.111.651985-903.501.471990-953.001.301995-002.601.162000-052.351.072005-102.201.012010-152.100.982015-202.010.942020-251.940.912025-301.860.892030-351.850.882035-401.850.882040-451.850.892945-501.850.89

TFRNRR

Average number of children per womanNumber of girls replacing motherTFRNRRYearRatesTrends in TFR and NRR, Indonesia, 1950-2050

IndicatorsIndicator1950-19551955-19601960-19651965-19701970-19751975-19801980-19851985-19901990-19951995-2000Population change per year (thousands)1382189721332680289031363222317630212868Births per year, both sexes combined (thousands)3547410743124797491650595024487747174608Deaths per year, both sexes combined (thousands)2163220821742112202119091788162015761560Population growth rate (%)1.672.082.112.372.272.212.041.831.591.4Crude birth rate (per 1,000 population)42.74542.642.338.635.631.82824.922.5Crude death rate (per 1,000 population)26.124.221.518.615.913.411.39.38.37.6Total fertility rate (children per woman)5.495.675.425.575.24.734.113.532.6Net reproduction rate (per woman)1.561.71.721.881.861.791.651.471.31.16Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births)201.2183.4165.8144.1125.5106.488.869.858.649.5Life expectancy at birth, both sexes combined (years)37.539.942.54649.252.756.260.162.664.9Life expectancy at birth, males (years)36.939.241.7454851.554.558.56163Life expectancy at birth, females (years)38.140.743.44750.554586264.566.8Indicator2000-20052005-20102010-20152015-20202020-20252025-20302030-20352035-20402040-20452045-2050Population change per year (thousands)2751261224112125181214911262991669324Births per year, both sexes combined (thousands)4524443543254160398838163747368135863475Deaths per year, both sexes combined (thousands)1593164317341855199621462305251027372971Population growth rate (%)1.261.130.990.830.680.540.450.350.230.11Crude birth rate (per 1,000 population)20.719.117.716.31513.913.312.912.311.9Crude death rate (per 1,000 population)7.37.17.17.37.57.88.28.89.410.1Total fertility rate (children per woman)2.352.22.12.011.941.861.851.851.851.85Net reproduction rate (per woman)1.071.010.980.940.910.890.880.880.890.89Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births)41.634.329.225.321.918.515.913.812.110.5Life expectancy at birth, both sexes combined (years)66.868.569.9717273.174.275.276.176.9Life expectancy at birth, males (years)64.866.868.369.370.371.372.373.374.174.9Life expectancy at birth, females (years)68.870.371.572.773.774.976.177.178.178.9

UNProjTableUnited Nations Population Projection, "World Population prospect"Indonesia Medium projectionIndicator19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000Population (thousands)795388644695931106596119998134446150128166238182117197221211559Male population (thousands)39455429834779753212600106730975248833209126198781105801Female population (thousands)40083434634813453384599886713774880829199085698440105758Population sex ratio (males per 100 females)98.498.999.399.7100100.3100.5100.5100.4100.3100Percentage aged 0-4 (%)14.315.616.716.216.515.614.713.612.311.210.3Percentage aged 5-14 (%)24.823.323.325.225.625.825.724.823.722.220.6Percentage aged 15-24 (%)2020.319.317.817.719.119.720.220.620.420Percentage aged 60 or over (%)6.25.75.25.15.25.45.55.76.26.97.6Percentage aged 65 or over (%)43.73.43.13.13.33.53.63.84.34.8Percentage aged 80 or over (%)0.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.40.50.5Percentage of women aged 15-49 (%)47.949.248.747.747.147.748.149.350.652.354.1Median age (years)2020.22019.71919.119.620.321.623.124.6Population density (per sq. km)424550566371798796104111Indicator1950-19551955-19601960-19651965-19701970-19751975-19801980-19851985-19901990-19951995-2000Population change per year (thousands)1382189721332680289031363222317630212868Births per year, both sexes combined (thousands)3547410743124797491650595024487747174608Deaths per year, both sexes combined (thousands)2163220821742112202119091788162015761560Population growth rate (%)1.672.082.112.372.272.212.041.831.591.4Crude birth rate (per 1,000 population)42.74542.642.338.635.631.82824.922.5Crude death rate (per 1,000 population)26.124.221.518.615.913.411.39.38.37.6Total fertility rate (children per woman)5.495.675.425.575.24.734.113.532.6Net reproduction rate (per woman)1.561.71.721.881.861.791.651.471.31.16Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births)201.2183.4165.8144.1125.5106.488.869.858.649.5Life expectancy at birth, both sexes combined (years)37.539.942.54649.252.756.260.162.664.9Life expectancy at birth, males (years)36.939.241.7454851.554.558.56163Life expectancy at birth, females (years)38.140.743.44750.554586264.566.8Indicator2005201020152020202520302035204020452050Population (thousands)225313238374250428261053270113277567283877288831292177293797Male population (thousands)112605119130125186130487134970138576141480143662144985145466Female population (thousands)112709119244125242130565135142138991142397145169147192148330Population sex ratio (males per 100 females)99.999.910099.999.999.799.49998.598.1Percentage aged 0-4 (%)9.68.98.47.77.26.76.56.36.15.8Percentage aged 5-14 (%)19.1181716.115.114.213.412.812.412.1Percentage aged 15-24 (%)19.1181716.215.514.914.213.512.912.4Percentage aged 60 or over (%)8.38.89.711.212.814.91719.221.323.1Percentage aged 65 or over (%)5.55.96.47.18.49.711.513.315.216.9Percentage aged 80 or over (%)0.60.70.911.11.31.622.63.2Percentage of women aged 15-49 (%)55.155.154.753.752.55149.347.64644.7Median age (years)26.227.929.631.332.934.53637.438.739.9Population density (per sq. km)118125131137142146149152153154Indicator2000-20052005-20102010-20152015-20202020-20252025-20302030-20352035-20402040-20452045-2050Population change per year (thousands)2751261224112125181214911262991669324Births per year, both sexes combined (thousands)4524443543254160398838163747368135863475Deaths per year, both sexes combined (thousands)1593164317341855199621462305251027372971Population growth rate (%)1.261.130.990.830.680.540.450.350.230.11Crude birth rate (per 1,000 population)20.719.117.716.31513.913.312.912.311.9Crude death rate (per 1,000 population)7.37.17.17.37.57.88.28.89.410.1Total fertility rate (children per woman)2.352.22.12.011.941.861.851.851.851.85Net reproduction rate (per woman)1.071.010.980.940.910.890.880.880.890.89Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births)41.634.329.225.321.918.515.913.812.110.5Life expectancy at birth, both sexes combined (years)66.868.569.9717273.174.275.276.176.9Life expectancy at birth, males (years)64.866.868.369.370.371.372.373.374.174.9Life expectancy at birth, females (years)68.870.371.572.773.774.976.177.178.178.9

&CUN Population Projection&CMum's.xls

MiaUnProj23:30 pm - 23:4522:5523:309:3511:1512:30Indicator195019551960196519701975198019851990199520002005201020152020202520302035204020452050Population (thousands)795388644695931106596119998134446150128166238182117197221211559225313238374250428261053270113277567283877288831292177293797Indicator19501955196019651970Indicator19701975198019851990Indicator19901995200020052010Indicator20102015202020252030Indicator20302035204020452050Population (thousands)795388644695931106596119998Population (thousands)119998134446150128166238182117Population (thousands)182117197221211559225313238374Population (thousands)238374250428261053270113277567Population (thousands)277567283877288831292177293797Male population (thousands)3945542983477975321260010Male population (thousands)6001067309752488332091261Male population (thousands)9126198781105801112605119130Male population (thousands)119130125186130487134970138576Male population (thousands)138576141480143662144985145466Female population (thousands)4008343463481345338459988Female population (thousands)5998867137748808291990856Female population (thousands)9085698440105758112709119244Female population (thousands)119244125242130565135142138991Female population (thousands)138991142397145169147192148330Population sex ratio (males per 100 females)98.498.999.399.7100Population sex ratio (males per 100 females)100100.3100.5100.5100.4Population sex ratio (males per 100 females)100.4100.310099.999.9Population sex ratio (males per 100 females)99.910099.999.999.7Population sex ratio (males per 100 females)99.799.49998.598.1Percentage aged 0-4 (%)14.315.616.716.216.5Percentage aged 0-4 (%)16.515.614.713.612.3Percentage aged 0-4 (%)12.311.210.39.68.9Percentage aged 0-4 (%)8.98.47.77.26.7Percentage aged 0-4 (%)6.76.56.36.15.8Percentage aged 5-14 (%)24.823.323.325.225.6Percentage aged 5-14 (%)25.625.825.724.823.7Percentage aged 5-14 (%)23.722.220.619.118Percentage aged 5-14 (%)181716.115.114.2Percentage aged 5-14 (%)14.213.412.812.412.1Percentage aged 15-24 (%)2020.319.317.817.7Percentage aged 15-24 (%)17.719.119.720.220.6Percentage aged 15-24 (%)20.620.42019.118Percentage aged 15-24 (%)181716.215.514.9Percentage aged 15-24 (%)14.914.213.512.912.4Percentage aged 60 or over (%)6.25.75.25.15.2Percentage aged 60 or over (%)5.25.45.55.76.2Percentage aged 60 or over (%)6.26.97.68.38.8Percentage aged 60 or over (%)8.89.711.212.814.9Percentage aged 60 or over (%)14.91719.221.323.1Percentage aged 65 or over (%)43.73.43.13.1Percentage aged 65 or over (%)3.13.33.53.63.8Percentage aged 65 or over (%)3.84.34.85.55.9Percentage aged 65 or over (%)5.96.47.18.49.7Percentage aged 65 or over (%)9.711.513.315.216.9Percentage aged 80 or over (%)0.30.30.30.30.3Percentage aged 80 or over (%)0.30.30.30.30.4Percentage aged 80 or over (%)0.40.50.50.60.7Percentage aged 80 or over (%)0.70.911.11.3Percentage aged 80 or over (%)1.31.622.63.2Percentage of women aged 15-49 (%)47.949.248.747.747.1Percentage of women aged 15-49 (%)47.147.748.149.350.6Percentage of women aged 15-49 (%)50.652.354.155.155.1Percentage of women aged 15-49 (%)55.154.753.752.551Percentage of women aged 15-49 (%)5149.347.64644.7Median age (years)2020.22019.719Median age (years)1919.119.620.321.6Median age (years)21.623.124.626.227.9Median age (years)27.929.631.332.934.5Median age (years)34.53637.438.739.9Population density (per sq. km)4245505663Population density (per sq. km)6371798796Population density (per sq. km)96104111118125Population density (per sq. km)125131137142146Population density (per sq. km)146149152153154Indicator1950-19551955-19601960-19651965-1970Indicator1970-19751975-19801980-19851985-1990Indicator1990-19951995-20002000-20052005-2010Indicator2010-20152015-20202020-20252025-2030Indicator2030-20352035-20402040-20452045-2050Population change per year (thousands)1382189721332680Population change per year (thousands)2890313632223176Population change per year (thousands)3021286827512612Population change per year (thousands)2411212518121491Population change per year (thousands)1262991669324Births per year, both sexes combined (thousands)3547410743124797Births per year, both sexes combined (thousands)4916505950244877Births per year, both sexes combined (thousands)4717460845244435Births per year, both sexes combined (thousands)4325416039883816Births per year, both sexes combined (thousands)3747368135863475Deaths per year, both sexes combined (thousands)2163220821742112Deaths per year, both sexes combined (thousands)2021190917881620Deaths per year, both sexes combined (thousands)1576156015931643Deaths per year, both sexes combined (thousands)1734185519962146Deaths per year, both sexes combined (thousands)2305251027372971Population growth rate (%)1.672.082.112.37Population growth rate (%)2.272.212.041.83Population growth rate (%)1.591.41.261.13Population growth rate (%)0.990.830.680.54Population growth rate (%)0.450.350.230.11Crude birth rate (per 1,000 population)42.74542.642.3Crude birth rate (per 1,000 population)38.635.631.828Crude birth rate (per 1,000 population)24.922.520.719.1Crude birth rate (per 1,000 population)17.716.31513.9Crude birth rate (per 1,000 population)13.312.912.311.9Crude death rate (per 1,000 population)26.124.221.518.6Crude death rate (per 1,000 population)15.913.411.39.3Crude death rate (per 1,000 population)8.37.67.37.1Crude death rate (per 1,000 population)7.17.37.57.8Crude death rate (per 1,000 population)8.28.89.410.1Total fertility rate (children per woman)5.495.675.425.57Total fertility rate (children per woman)5.24.734.113.5Total fertility rate (children per woman)32.62.352.2Total fertility rate (children per woman)2.12.011.941.86Total fertility rate (children per woman)1.851.851.851.85Net reproduction rate (per woman)1.561.71.721.88Net reproduction rate (per woman)1.861.791.651.47Net reproduction rate (per woman)1.31.161.071.01Net reproduction rate (per woman)0.980.940.910.89Net reproduction rate (per woman)0.880.880.890.89Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births)201.2183.4165.8144.1Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births)125.5106.488.869.8Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births)58.649.541.634.3Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births)29.225.321.918.5Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births)15.913.812.110.5Life expectancy at birth, both sexes combined (years)37.539.942.546Life expectancy at birth, both sexes combined (years)49.252.756.260.1Life expectancy at birth, both sexes combined (years)62.664.966.868.5Life expectancy at birth, both sexes combined (years)69.9717273.1Life expectancy at birth, both sexes combined (years)74.275.276.176.9Life expectancy at birth, males (years)36.939.241.745Life expectancy at birth, males (years)4851.554.558.5Life expectancy at birth, males (years)616364.866.8Life expectancy at birth, males (years)68.369.370.371.3Life expectancy at birth, males (years)72.373.374.174.9Life expectancy at birth, females (years)38.140.743.447Life expectancy at birth, females (years)50.5545862Life expectancy at birth, females (years)64.566.868.870.3Life expectancy at birth, females (years)71.572.773.774.9Life expectancy at birth, females (years)76.177.178.178.9IndonesiaDependency RatiosMedium variant1950-2050YearTotalChildElderly1950766971955746861960767161965807561970837761975817561980787261985726661990666061995605472000564882005524482010494092015463792020453410202544321220304430142035462917204048282020455128232050542826UN

Balita_Lansia%Number%0-4Number 0-4Total60+Pop60+0-460+195079.5386.24.914.311.4195011.44.9195586.4465.74.915.613.5195513.54.9196095.9315.25.016.716.0196016.05.01965106.5965.15.416.217.3196517.35.41970119.9985.26.216.519.8197019.86.21975134.4465.47.315.621.0197521.07.31980150.1285.58.314.722.1198022.18.31985166.2385.79.513.622.6198522.69.51990182.1176.211.312.322.4199022.411.31995197.2216.913.611.222.1199522.113.62000211.5597.616.110.321.8200021.816.12005225.3138.318.79.621.6200521.618.72010238.3748.821.08.921.2201021.221.02015250.4289.724.38.421.0201521.024.32020261.05311.229.27.720.1202020.129.22025270.11312.834.67.219.4202519.434.62030277.56714.941.46.718.6203018.641.42035283.8771748.36.518.5203518.548.32040288.83119.255.56.318.2204018.255.52045292.17721.362.26.117.8204517.862.22050293.79723.167.95.817.0205017.067.9

Balita_Lansia

0-460+YearPopulation in millionProjected number of population under-fives and older persons 60+

dependency%Number%0-4Number% 5-14NumberNumber%NumberDependentNumberTotal60+Pop60+0-45-140-1465+65+(0-14)+(65+)15-64Dependency ratio195079.5386.24.93135614.311.424.819.72542431.143.1815234.345.375.7195586.4465.74.92742215.613.523.320.14191833.63.73.19850236.849.674.2196095.9315.24.98841216.716.023.322.35192338.43.43.26165441.654.376.71965106.5965.15.43639616.217.325.226.86219244.13.13.30447647.459.280.21970119.9985.26.23989616.519.825.630.71948850.53.13.71993854.265.882.51975134.4465.47.26008415.621.025.834.68706855.73.34.43671860.174.380.81980150.1285.58.2570414.722.125.738.58289660.73.55.2544865.984.278.31985166.2385.79.47556613.622.624.841.22702463.83.65.98456869.896.472.41990182.1176.211.29125412.322.423.743.16172965.63.86.92044672.5109.666.11995197.2216.913.60824911.222.122.243.78306265.94.38.48050374.4122.960.52000211.5597.616.07848410.321.820.643.58115465.44.810.15483275.5136.055.52005225.3138.318.7009799.621.619.143.03478364.75.512.39221577.1148.352.02010238.3748.820.9769128.921.21842.9073264.15.914.06406678.2160.248.82015250.4289.724.2915168.421.01742.5727663.66.416.02739279.6170.846.62020261.05311.229.2379367.720.116.142.02953362.17.118.53476380.7180.444.72025270.11312.834.5744647.219.415.140.78706360.28.422.68949282.9187.244.32030277.56714.941.3574836.718.614.239.41451458.09.726.92399984.9192.644.12035283.8771748.259096.518.513.438.03951856.511.532.64585589.1194.745.82040288.83119.255.4555526.318.212.836.97036855.213.338.41452393.6195.247.92045292.17721.362.2337016.117.812.436.22994854.115.244.41090498.5193.750.82050293.79723.167.8671075.817.012.135.54943752.616.949.651693102.2191.653.4Dependency ratio195075.7195574.2196076.7196580.2197082.5197580.8198078.3198572.4199066.1199560.5200055.5200552.0201048.8201546.6202044.7202544.3203044.1203545.8204047.9204550.8205053.4Population Aged0-1415-6465+195031.145.33.2195533.649.63.2196038.454.33.3196544.159.23.3197050.565.83.7197555.774.34.4198060.784.25.3198563.896.46.0199065.6109.66.9199565.9122.98.5200065.4136.010.2200564.7148.312.4201064.1160.214.1201563.6170.816.0202062.1180.418.5202560.2187.222.7203058.0192.626.9203556.5194.732.6204055.2195.238.4204554.1193.744.4205052.6191.649.7

dependency

Dependency ratioYearDependent per 100 working-ageTrend in Dependency Ratios, Indonesia, 1950-2000

Miagraph

children 0-14older persons 65+working-age0-1415-6465+YearPopulation in millionsTrend in number of children, working-age and older persons, Indonesia, 1950-2050

table dependencyPopulation195079,53879.5195586,44686.4196095,93195.91965106,596106.61970119,998120.01975134,446134.41980150,128150.11985166,238166.21990182,117182.11995197,221197.22000211,559211.62005225,313225.32010238,374238.42015250,428250.42020261,053261.12025270,113270.12030277,567277.62035283,877283.92040288,831288.82045292,177292.22050293,797293.8Percentage aged 0-4 (%)195014.3195515.6196016.7196516.2197016.5197515.6198014.7198513.6199012.3199511.2200010.320059.620108.920158.420207.720257.220306.720356.520406.320456.120505.8Percentage aged 5-14 (%)195024.8195523.3196023.3196525.2197025.6197525.8198025.7198524.8199023.7199522.2200020.6200519.1201018201517202016.1202515.1203014.2203513.4204012.8204512.4205012.1Percentage aged 15-24 (%)195020195520.3196019.3196517.8197017.7197519.1198019.7198520.2199020.6199520.4200020200519.1201018201517202016.2202515.5203014.9203514.2204013.5204512.9205012.4Percentage aged 60 or over (%)19506.219555.719605.219655.119705.219755.419805.519855.719906.219956.920007.620058.320108.820159.7202011.2202512.8203014.9203517204019.2204521.3205023.1Percentage aged 65 or over (%)1950419553.719603.419653.119703.119753.319803.519853.619903.819954.320004.820055.520105.920156.420207.120258.420309.7203511.5204013.3204515.2205016.9Percentage aged 80 or over (%)19500.319550.319600.319650.319700.319750.319800.319850.319900.419950.520000.520050.620100.720150.92020120251.120301.320351.62040220452.620503.2Percentage of women aged 15-49 (%)195047.9195549.2196048.7196547.7197047.1197547.7198048.1198549.3199050.6199552.3200054.1200555.1201055.1201554.7202053.7202552.5203051203549.3204047.6204546205044.7Indicator1950-19551955-19601960-19651965-19701970-19751975-19801980-19851985-19901990-19951995-20002000-20052005-20102010-20152015-20202020-20252025-20302030-20352035-20402040-20452045-2050Births per year, both sexes combined (thousands)35474107431247974916505950244877471746084524443543254160398838163747368135863475Deaths per year, both sexes combined (thousands)21632208217421122021190917881620157615601593164317341855199621462305251027372971Population growth rate (%)1.672.082.112.372.272.212.041.831.591.41.261.130.990.830.680.540.450.350.230.11Crude birth rate (per 1,000 population)42.74542.642.338.635.631.82824.922.520.719.117.716.31513.913.312.912.311.9Crude death rate (per 1,000 population)26.124.221.518.615.913.411.39.38.37.67.37.17.17.37.57.88.28.89.410.1Total fertility rate (children per woman)5.495.675.425.575.24.734.113.532.62.352.22.12.011.941.861.851.851.851.85Net reproduction rate (per woman)1.561.71.721.881.861.791.651.471.31.161.071.010.980.940.910.890.880.880.890.89Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births)201.2183.4165.8144.1125.5106.488.869.858.649.541.634.329.225.321.918.515.913.812.110.5Life expectancy at birth, both sexes combined (years)37.539.942.54649.252.756.260.162.664.966.868.569.9717273.174.275.276.176.9Births per year, both sexes combined (thousands)1950-19553,5471955-19604,1071960-19654,3121965-19704,7971970-19754,9161975-19805,0591980-19855,0241985-19904,8771990-19954,7171995-20004,6082000-20054,5242005-20104,4352010-20154,3252015-20204,1602020-20253,9882025-20303,8162030-20353,7472035-20403,6812040-20453,5862045-20503,475Deaths per year, both sexes combined (thousands)1950-19552,1632.21955-19602,2082.21960-19652,1742.21965-19702,1122.11970-19752,0212.01975-19801,9091.91980-19851,7881.81985-19901,6201.61990-19951,5761.61995-20001,5601.62000-20051,5931.62005-20101,6431.62010-20151,7341.72015-20201,8551.92020-20251,9962.02025-20302,1462.12030-20352,3052.32035-20402,5102.52040-20452,7372.72045-20502,9713.0Population growth rate (%)1950-19551.671955-19602.081960-19652.111965-19702.371970-19752.271975-19802.211980-19852.041985-19901.831990-19951.591995-20001.42000-20051.262005-20101.132010-20150.992015-20200.832020-20250.682025-20300.542030-20350.452035-20400.352040-20450.232045-20500.11Crude birth rate (per 1,000 population)1950-195542.70.04271955-1960450.0451960-196542.60.04261965-197042.30.04231970-197538.60.03861975-198035.60.03561980-198531.80.03181985-1990280.0281990-199524.90.02491995-200022.50.02252000-200520.70.02072005-201019.10.01912010-201517.70.01772015-202016.30.01632020-2025150.0152025-203013.90.01392030-203513.30.01332035-204012.90.01292040-204512.30.01232045-205011.90.0119Crude death rate ( per 1,000 population)1950-195526.11955-196024.21960-196521.51965-197018.61970-197515.91975-198013.41980-198511.31985-19909.31990-19958.31995-20007.62000-20057.32005-20107.12010-20157.12015-20207.32020-20257.52025-20307.82030-20358.22035-20408.82040-20459.42045-205010.1Total fertility rate (children per woman)1950-19555.491955-19605.671960-19655.421965-19705.571970-19755.21975-19804.731980-19854.111985-19903.51990-199531995-20002.62000-20052.352005-20102.22010-20152.12015-20202.012020-20251.942025-20301.862030-20351.852035-20401.852040-20451.852045-20501.85Net reproduction rate (per woman)1950-19551.561955-19601.71960-19651.721965-19701.881970-19751.861975-19801.791980-19851.651985-19901.471990-19951.31995-20001.162000-20051.072005-20101.012010-20150.982015-20200.942020-20250.912025-20300.892030-20350.882035-20400.882040-20450.892045-20500.89Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births)1950-1955201.21955-1960183.41960-1965165.81965-1970144.11970-1975125.51975-1980106.41980-198588.81985-199069.81990-199558.61995-200049.52000-200541.62005-201034.32010-201529.22015-202025.32020-202521.92025-203018.52030-203515.92035-204013.82040-204512.12045-205010.5Life expectancy at birth, both sexes combined (years)1950-195537.51955-196039.91960-196542.51965-1970461970-197549.21975-198052.71980-198556.21985-199060.11990-199562.61995-200064.92000-200566.82005-201068.52010-201569.92015-2020712020-2025722025-203073.12030-203574.22035-204075.22040-204576.12045-205076.9

table dependency

UN Population ProjectionYearPopulation in millionUN Population Projection, Indonesia, 1950-2050

greatgraph

Percentage aged 0-4 (%)YearPercentage

UN Miadependancy rate

Percentage aged 5-14 (%)YearPercentage

Percentage aged 15-24 (%)YearPercentage

Percentage aged 60 or over (%)YearPercentage

Percentage aged 65 or over (%)YearPercentage

Percentage aged 80 or over (%)YearPercentage

Percentage aged 0-4 (%)Percentage aged 5-14 (%)Percentage aged 15-24 (%)Percentage aged 60 or over (%)Population aged 65 or over (%)Percentage aged 80 or over (%)YearPercentagePopulation percentage

0.81538461540.78849407780.81067125650.83741258740.85865724380.84588441330.82525951560.76755852840.70739549840.65993788820.61561561560.59264705880.56772334290.55382436260.5401662050.55371900830.56753069580.61379310340.66713286710.73782234960.8049853372

UN dependancy rateYearDependancy rate

Percentage of women aged 15-49 (%)YearPercentage

Births per year, both sexes combined (thousands)YearNumber of births

Deaths per year, both sexes combined (thousands)YearNumber of deaths

Population growth rate (%)YearPopulation growth rate (%)

CBR (per 1,000 population)YearCBR

CDR (per 1,000 population)YearCDR

Total Fertility Rate (children per woman)YearTotal Fertility Rate

Net Reproduction RateYearRate

Infant Mortality Rate (per 1,000 births)YearInfant Mortality Rate

Life expectancy at birth, both sexes combined (years)YearExpected age

UN ProjectionDependency ratio195081.5195578.8196081.1196583.7197085.9197584.6198082.5198576.8199070.7199566.0200061.6200559.3201056.8201555.4202054.0202555.4203056.8203561.4204066.7204573.8205080.5

&F

UN ProjBPSBPSWidjojoIskandar195079.577.1195586.485.7196095.995.097.097.11965106.6105.6109.2110.11970120.0119.0122.5124.91975134.4134.0138.8141.91980150.1148.0160.9161.51985166.2165.2190.2184.41990182.1180.0227.0211.51995197.2196.0243.22000211.6205.0205.8282.02005225.3219.12010238.4232.02015250.4244.02020261.0254.72025270.1263.82030277.6270.92035283.9276.22040288.8279.52045292.2281.32050293.8281.5UN ProjBPSWidjojoIskandar195079.577.1195586.485.71196095.997.0197.01997.0851965106.6105.6109.166110.1341970120120.1122.52124.8721975134.4132.1138.787141.8621980150.1148.04160.916161.4781985166.2165.1536190.217184.4291990182.1183.4568226.978211.4591995197.2202.7463271.2243.2152000211.6205.843324.2281.9622005225.3219.14212010238.4231.99662015250.4243.99852020261254.71832025270.1263.77522030277.6270.93532035283.9276.15772040288.8279.53892045292.2281.25822050293.8281.5421

UN ProjectionCBS ProjectionIskandarWidjojoEstimatesUN ProjBPSBPSWidjojoIskandarYearPopulation in millionPopulation, Estimates and Projection, Indonesia, 1950-2050

Population (percentage)0-45-1415-24>60>65>8025-59195014.324.8206.240.330.4100.0195515.623.320.35.73.70.331.1100.0196016.723.319.35.23.40.331.8100.0196516.225.217.85.13.10.332.3100.0197016.525.617.75.23.10.331.6100.0197515.625.819.15.43.30.330.5100.0198014.725.719.75.53.50.330.6100.0198513.624.820.25.73.60.331.8100.0199012.323.720.66.23.80.433.0100.0199511.222.220.46.94.30.534.5100.0200010.320.6207.64.80.536.2100.020059.619.119.18.35.50.637.8100.020108.918188.85.90.739.7100.020158.417179.76.40.940.6100.020207.716.116.211.27.1140.7100.020257.215.115.512.88.41.139.9100.020306.714.214.914.99.71.338.3100.020356.513.414.21711.51.635.8100.020406.312.813.519.213.3232.9100.020456.112.412.921.315.22.629.5100.020505.812.112.423.116.93.226.5100.0Population (numbers)Dependancy rate0-45-1415-2425-5960-64>65>60>65>80195079,53879,538,0000.8211,373,934.019,725,424.015,907,600.024,179,552.01,511,222.06,840,268.04,931,356.03,181,520.0238,614.079,538,000.0195586,44686,446,0000.7913,485,576.020,141,918.017,548,538.026,884,706.01,728,920.06,656,342.04,927,422.03,198,502.0259,338.086,446,000.0196095,93195,931,0000.8116,020,477.022,351,923.018,514,683.030,506,058.01,726,758.06,811,101.04,988,412.03,261,654.0287,793.095,931,000.01965106,596106,596,0000.8417,268,552.026,862,192.018,974,088.034,430,508.02,131,920.06,928,740.05,436,396.03,304,476.0319,788.0106,596,000.01970119,998119,998,0000.8619,799,670.030,719,488.021,239,646.037,919,368.02,519,958.07,799,870.06,239,896.03,719,938.0359,994.0119,998,000.01975134,446134,446,0000.8520,973,576.034,687,068.025,679,186.041,006,030.02,823,366.09,276,774.07,260,084.04,436,718.0403,338.0134,446,000.01980150,128150,128,0000.8322,068,816.038,582,896.029,575,216.045,939,168.03,002,560.010,959,344.08,257,040.05,254,480.0450,384.0150,128,000.01985166,238166,238,0000.7722,608,368.041,227,024.033,580,076.052,863,684.03,490,998.012,467,850.09,475,566.05,984,568.0498,714.0166,238,000.01990182,117182,117,0000.7122,400,391.043,161,729.037,516,102.060,098,610.04,370,808.014,569,360.011,291,254.06,920,446.0728,468.0182,117,000.01995197,221197,221,0000.6622,088,752.043,783,062.040,233,084.068,041,245.05,127,746.017,947,111.013,608,249.08,480,503.0986,105.0197,221,000.02000211,559211,559,0000.6221,790,577.043,581,154.042,311,800.076,584,358.05,923,652.021,367,459.016,078,484.010,154,832.01,057,795.0211,559,000.02005225,313225,313,0000.5921,630,048.043,034,783.043,034,783.085,168,314.06,308,764.026,136,308.018,700,979.012,392,215.01,351,878.0225,313,000.02010238,374238,374,0000.5721,215,286.042,907,320.042,907,320.094,634,478.06,912,846.029,796,750.020,976,912.014,064,066.01,668,618.0238,374,000.02015250,428250,428,0000.5521,035,952.042,572,760.042,572,760.0101,673,768.08,264,124.034,308,636.024,291,516.016,027,392.02,253,852.0250,428,000.02020261,053261,053,0000.5420,101,081.042,029,533.042,290,586.0106,248,571.010,703,173.039,680,056.029,237,936.018,534,763.02,610,530.0261,053,000.02025270,113270,113,0000.5519,448,136.040,787,063.041,867,515.0107,775,087.011,884,972.048,350,227.034,574,464.022,689,492.02,971,243.0270,113,000.02030277,567277,567,0000.5718,596,989.039,414,514.041,357,483.0106,308,161.014,433,484.057,456,369.041,357,483.026,923,999.03,608,371.0277,567,000.02035283,877283,877,0000.6118,452,005.038,039,518.040,310,534.0101,627,966.015,613,235.069,833,742.048,259,090.032,645,855.04,542,032.0283,877,000.02040288,831288,831,0000.6718,196,353.036,970,368.038,992,185.095,025,399.017,041,029.082,605,666.055,455,552.038,414,523.05,776,620.0288,831,000.02045292,177292,177,0000.7417,822,797.036,229,948.037,690,833.086,192,215.017,822,797.096,418,410.062,233,701.044,410,904.07,596,602.0292,177,000.02050293,797293,797,0000.8017,040,226.035,549,437.036,430,828.077,856,205.018,215,414.0108,704,890.067,867,107.049,651,693.09,401,504.0293,797,000.0

UN dependancy rateYearDependancy rate