EKONOMI INTERNASIONAL

Pertemuan III : Peranan teori perdagangan internasional dan Gravity model

Peranan Teori perdagangan

Analisa faktor penyebab perdagangan Analisa pola perdagangan Rumusan kebijakan perdagangan Perbedaan persepektif terhadap

perdagangan Persoalan dan solusi perdagangan

internasional

Gravity Model Tingkat volume perdagangan internasional sangat

ditentukan oleh – jarak antara negara,– ukuran ekonomi negara (GDP)

Dari rumusan diatas dapat diformulasikan sebagai berikut (Krugman and Obsfeld, 2008):

Tij = A x Yi x Yj /Dij

Dimana:Tij : Nilai perdagangan antara negara i dan jA : konstantaYi : GDP di negara iYj : GDP di negara jDij : jarak antara negara i dan j

Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

Gravity Model (cont.)

Fakta empiris menunjukan bahwa persoalan ukuran ekonomi sangat berkaitan dengan volume ekspor dan impor– Negara besar memproduksi barang dan jasa lebih

banyak, sehingga dapat mengekspor– Negara besar dapat pendapatan dari barang dan jas

yang dijual, sehingga masyarakatnya dapat membeli produk impor lebih banyak.

Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

Fig. 2-1: Total U.S. Trade with Major Partners, 2006

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

3 of the top 10 trading partners with the U.S. in 2005 were also the 3 largest European economies: Germany, UK, and France.

Fig. 2-2: The Size of European Economies, and the Value of Their Trade with the United States

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, European Commission

Faktor lain yang mempengaruhi Gravity Model

Karakteristik geografi

Kebudayaan masyarakat

Perbatasan antara negara

Multi National Corporation

Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

Fig. 2-3: Economic Size and Tradewith the United States

Source: U.S. Deparment of Commerce, European Commission

Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

Fig. 2-4: Canadian Provinces and U.S. States That Trade with British Columbia

Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

Table 2-3: Trade with British Columbia, as Percent of GDP, 1996

Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

Fig. 2-5: The Rise, Fall, and Rise of International Trade Since 1830

Source: Richard E. Baldwin and Phillipe Martin, “Two Waves of Globalization: Superficial Similarities, Fundamental Differences,” in Horst Siebert, ed., Globalization and Labor (Tubingen: Mohr, 1999).

Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

Fig. 2-6: The Composition of World Trade, 2005

Source: World Trade Organization

Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

Table 2-4: Manufactured Goods as a Percent of Merchandise Trade

Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

Fig. 2-7: The Changing Composition of Developing-Country Exports

Source: United Nations Council on Trade and Development

Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)

Fig. 2-8: Tradable Industries’ Share of Employment

Source: J. Bradford Jensen and Lori G. Kletzer, “Tradable Services: Understanding the Scope and Impact of Services Outsourcing,” Peterson Institute of Economics Working Paper 5-09, May 2005