2 juli, 2019 - miraeasset.co.id fileaustralia akan mengeluarkan data ekspor bijih besinya yang kami...
TRANSCRIPT
To subscribe to our Daily Focus, please contact us at [email protected]
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
2 Juli, 2019
Market Index
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
JCI 6,379.7 0.3 2.4 10.6
MSCI Indonesia 26.3 1.3 2.7 14.3
MSCI EM 1,064.1 0.9 5.7 -0.4
HANG SENG 28,542.6 -0.3 6.4 -1.2
KOSPI 2,129.7 -0.3 4.3 -6.2
FTSE 7,497.5 1 3.7 -1.6
DJIA 26,717.4 0.4 7.2 9.4
NASDAQ 8,091.2 1.1 7.4 5.8
2018F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
JCI 15.8 2.3 17.4
Key Rates
Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY
BI 7-Day RR 6.00 0 25 -100
3yr 6.87 2 -47 -77
10yr 7.37 0 -59 -42
FX
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
USD/IDR 14,113.0 -0.1 -1.0 -1.8
USD/KRW 1,158.7 0.3 -2.0 3.4
USD/JPY 108.5 0.6 0.4 -2.2
USD/CNY 6.9 -0.1 -0.5 3.0
Commodities
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
WTI 59.1 1.1 10.4 12.7
Gold 1,384.2 -1.8 4.4 11.4
Coal 68.0 1.1 -18.5 -40.6
Palm Oil 1,890.0 1.3 -6.9 -17.8
Rubber 163.5 0.0 7.3 32.6
Nickel 12,350.0 -2.7 2.8 -17.1
Copper 5,954.5 -0.6 2.1 -8.7
Tin 18,980.0 0.4 1.0 -4.3
JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets
Market commentary
Hariyanto Wijaya CFA, CPA (Aust), CMT ([email protected])
IHSG ditutup menguat +0.3% didukung sentimen positif dari gencatan senjata
perang dagang antara AS dan Cina. Peningkatan IHSG dipimpin oleh peningkatan
TLKM. Kami perkirakan IHSG akan diperdagangkan mixed ke level yang lebih tinggi
hari ini.
Indeks AS pada hari Senin menyentuh level tertinggi baru didukung optimisme
dimulainya kembali pembicaraan perdagangan AS-Cina. Presiden Trump
menawarkan konsesi termasuk tidak ada tarif impor baru dan pelonggaran
pembatasan terhadap Huawei, sementara China setuju untuk melakukan pembelian
baru yang tidak ditentukan atas produk pertanian AS. Harga minyak mentah
bergerak lebih tinggi setelah anggota OPEC dan negara-negara OPEC+ sepakat
untuk memperpanjang penurunan produksi.
Saat ini AS telah memasuki rekor 11 tahun ekspansi ekonomi. Ekspansi saat ini
dimulai pada Juni 2009 dan telah berlangsung selama 121 bulan.
Weekly commodity alerts: An unexciting week
Andy Wibowo Gunawan ([email protected])
Mempertimbangkan peristiwa global yang terkait dengan pasar komoditas yang
terjadi, kami berpikir bahwa semua komoditas global yang berada di bawah cakupan
kami akan bergoyang dalam suasana hati yang membosankan. Namun, ada risiko
terbalik potensial terhadap komoditas global yang berasal dari hasil positif dari
pertemuan Trump-Xi.
Energy: Trading on muted mix
Berdasarkan hasil analisis supply-demand and hasil pertemuan OPEC+, kami
memperkirakan harga minyak WTI akan diperdagangkan mix. Kami memperkirakan
jumlah total rig di AS akan flat pada 5 Juli. Adapun, harga batubara global, kami
melihat akan harga batubara global diperdagangkan mix karena dua sisi katalis.
Basic metal: Watching on Australia’s trade data
Dari sisi supply kami melihat harga nikel global akan berpotensi menguat. Akan
tetapi kekuatiran kami pada sisi permintaan nikel. Sementara itu, kami mencatat
Australia akan mengeluarkan data ekspor bijih besinya yang kami perkirakan akan
mengalami penurunan. Sementara itu, kami tidak mendukung komoditas timah
untuk minggu ini.
Precious metal: A sign of calming down
Karena daya beli konsumen AS tetap solid, kami berpikir bahwa harga emas global
akan melunak minggu ini. Selain itu, karena klaim pengangguran awal tetap rendah,
The Fed berpikir ulang untuk menurunkan suku bunganya dalam waktu dekat.
Agriculture: Lack of positive catalysts
Meskipun ekspor CPO Malaysia Mei meningkat menjadi 1,70 juta ton, dari angka
bulan sebelumnya 1,65 juta ton, persediaan CPO Malaysia Mei tetap tinggi di 2,45
juta ton (-10,2% MoM). Sementara itu, kami mencatat bahwa ekspor CPO Mei
Malaysia relatif datar pada 1,71 juta ton, dibandingkan dengan bulan sebelumnya. 550
800
1,050
1,300
1,550
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
01/1607/1601/1707/1701/1807/1801/19
JCI (pt) (pt)
2 Juli, 2019
2
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia cartoon
2 Juli, 2019
3
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Local flashes
WON: Pakuwon Jati (PWON) bangun kondominium.PT Pakuwon Jati Tbk (PWON) masih
optimistis melihat penjualan segmen kondominium di tengah rendahnya penyerapan
pasar kondominium. Menilik riset dari Savills Indonesia, pada kuartal I 2019, serapan pasar
kondominium hanya 430 unit dari 1.100 unit. Tekanan harga jual ikut terjadi, harga rata-rata
kondominium per meter persegi turun 0,3% di angka Rp 26,3 juta dibandingkan tahun lalu
(Kontan)
BMRI: Bank Mandiri salurkan kredit infrastruktur Rp 14,3 triliun hingga Mei. PT Bank
Mandiri Tbk (BMRI, anggota indeks Kompas100) masih terus fokus membidik penyaluran
kredit di sektor infrastruktur. Perseroan melihat prospek sektor ini masih cukup cerah sejalan
dengan komitmen pemerintah dalam melanjutkan pembangunan infrastruktur nasional.
Sepanjang Januari hingga Mei 2019, Bank Mandiri telah berhasil menyalurkan kredit
infrastruktur sebesar Rp 14,3 triliun. Realisasi tersebut tumbuh dua kali lipat dibandingkan
periode yang sama tahun lalu.(Kontan)
DILD: Intiland (DILD) optimistis target marketing sales Rp 2,5 triliun tercapai. PT Intiland
Development Tbk (DILD) optimistis target marketing sales sebesar Rp 2,5 triliun tahun ini
akan tercapai. Selain sentimen yang baik dari kebijakan fiskal pemerintah, minat beli dari
konsumen juga mulai mengalami peningkatan. Theresia Rustandi, Sekretaris Perusahaan
DILD menjelaskan perusahaan akan menjaga kinerja usaha dengan mengandalkan
pertumbuhan organik. Selain itu, manajemen juga menjalin kerjasama strategis dengan
investor.(Kontan)
EXCL: XL gandeng semua operator Arab Saudi untuk paket data Jamaah Haji. PT XL
Axiata Tbk (EXCL, anggota indeks Kompas100 ini,) sudah mempersiapkan paket khusus
untuk jamaah haji yang akan memberikan kemudahan dan kenyamanan berkomunikasi
selama beribadah di Tanah Suci. Paket khusus haji ini bertarif sangat kompetitif disertai
dengan kuota data yang besar, serta mendapatkan dukungan jaringan 4G dari seluruh
operator di Arab Saudi. Pelanggan dan para jamaah haji Indonesia bisa mendapatkan paket
khusus haji ini mulai 1 Juli 2019.(Kontan)
BYAN: Bayan Resources (BYAN) catat kenaikan cadangan batubara. PT Bayan Resources
Tbk (BYAN) mencatat kenaikan cadangan berdasarkan Joint Ore Reserves Committee (JORC)
tahun 2012 yang sebelumnya 764 juta ton, sekarang menjadi 1,18 miliar ton per tanggal 1
Januari 2019. Mayoritas kenaikan ini 83% berasal dari proyek Tabang, Pakar Utara di Kutai
Kartanegara, Kalimantan Timur. Berdasarkan JORC tahun 2012 di proyek Tabang tumbuh
dari 564 juta ton menjadi 911 juta ton.(Kontan)
IGAR: Champion Pacific Indonesia (IGAR) raih kenaikan penjualan obat. PT Champion
Pacific Indonesia Tbk (IGAR) mengawali bisnis pada awal tahun ini dengan baik. Kurs yang
cenderung stabil cukup mempengaruhi perolehan bisnis produsen kemasan fleksibel (flexible
packaging) tersebut. "Dengan fluktuasi kurs tidak setajam tahun lalu begitu pula
pembayaran obat BPJS, tampaknya semester satu ini kami optimistis bisa growthpositif,"
ungkap Antonius Muhartoyo, Presiden Direktur IGAR (Kontan)
2 Juli, 2019
4
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Technical analysis
Tasrul +62-21-515-1140 [email protected]
Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) – Test Resistance at 6,417
IHSG akan coba tembus center lne pada pola uptrend jangka pendek .
IHSG saat ini sudah berada dalam pola uptrend jangka pendek dimana korelasi
pergerakkan indeks ini masih relatif valid (r-squared = 0.7538) seajak 30 hari terakhir
dimana bergerak normal dalam rentang +/- 1.15 std.deviasi dari centerline. IHSG
bergerak di luar pergerakan normal hanya sekitar +26.42% atau sekitar 7 bar chart.
Rata-rata volatilitas normal pergerakan IHSG secara harian saat ini antara +0.56% / -
0.53 % atau +35.73/ -33.8 point (rata-rata pergerakan normal positif / negatif selama
periode analisis) sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 1.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (July 1, 2019) 6,379. 47(+0.33%) Trading range 6,347 - 6,417
Average index performance (%) 3.18 Target
Period 30 - Daily 6,417
r-squared 0.7538 - Weekly 6,461
Volatility (+/-, %) +0.56/ -0.53 - Monthly 6,532
Volatility (+/-, point) +35.73/ -33.81 Stop loss 6,309
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 1. Daily , Short term trend – Uptrend
4 - 6,161 Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 6,417.0
_____ 6,347.4
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Composite Index [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 7/1/2019 Open: 6,381 High: 6,396 Low: 6,369 Close: 6,380 Vol. 13,226,341,376
Prev. Avg. Price: 6,381.5
R-Squared: 0.7538
Period: 30
Std.Dev: 1.15
Volatility (+) : 0.0056
Volatility (-) : -0.0053
V-Ratio : 1.04
Chg.: 0.33%
6,379.69
6,334.15
6,309.47
6,201.56
6,157.23
6,405.1
6,405.1
6,500.74
6,652.98
25 Apr 8 15 22 29 May 13 20 27 Jun 17 24 Jul
^JKSE - Volume = 13,226,341,376.00, MA(Volume,8) = 11,272,495,104.00
13,226,341,376
11,272,495,104
2 Juli, 2019
5
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas indeks naik masih terlihat.
Pada Figure 2, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir pada periode daily indikator MFI
optimized dan indikator W%R optimized cenderung naik. Sementara indikator MFI
optimized dan indikator RSI optimized juga masih cenderung naik. Daily resistance
terdekat di 6,417 dan support di 6,347. Cut loss level di 6,309.
Figure 2. Daily, Short term trend, MFI optimized & W%R optimized
X` x`x`
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = 79.96
79.9594
^JKSE - Will%R Smoothed = -18.77
-18.7691
_____ 6,410.8_____ 6,349.6
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Composite Index [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 7/1/2019 Open: 6,381 High: 6,396 Low: 6,369 Close: 6,380 Vol. 13,226,341,376
Prev. Avg. Price: 6,381.5
R-Squared: 0.7538
Period: 30
Std.Dev: 1.15
Volatility (+) : 0.0046
Volatility (-) : -0.0050
V-Ratio : 0.92
Chg.: 0.33%
6,379.69
6,334.15
6,201.56
2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
^JKSE - Volume = 13,226,341,376.00, MA(Volume,8) = 11,272,495,104.00 13,226,341,376
11,272,495,104
2 Juli, 2019
6
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Figure 3. Weekly Trend – Uptrend, MFI optimized & W%R optimized
A
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
IHSG akan coba bertahan diatas rata-rata masing masing periode
Pada pergerakkan daily, rata-rata kenaikkan normal sekitar +0.56% saat ini di +0.33.%.
Sementara itu pada pergerakan weekly kenaikkan normal rata-rata sekitar +1.25%,
sementara saat ini di level +0.33%. Pada pergerakan monthly saat ini di level +0.33%,
normal kenaikkkan di +2.37%. Dengan demikian diperkirakan hari ini masih potensi
kenaikkan lebih lanjut Pada Figure 4,5 dan 6 terlihat perkiraan normal trading range
untuk masing-masig periode.
Figure 4. Daily : 6,347 – 6,417 Figure 5. Weekly : 6,297 – 6,461 Figure 6. Monthly : 6,188– 6,532
x
x x`
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = 94.16 94.1627
^JKSE - RSI Smoothed = 82.31
82.3108
_____ 6,461.7_____ 6,297.4
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Composite Index [ ^JKSE ] - Weekly - 7/7/2019 Open: 6,381 High: 6,396 Low: 6,369 Close: 6,380 Vol. 13,226,341,376
Prev. Avg. Price: 6,381.5
R-Squared: 0.8364
Period: 202
Std.Dev: 1.40
Volatility (+) : 0.0126
Volatility (-) : -0.0132
V-Ratio : 0.95
Chg.: 0.33%
6,379.69
6,361.83
6,246.49
6,210.68
6,179.49
6,616.45
6,986.41
Apr Jul Oct 2018 Apr Jul Oct 2019 Apr Jul
^JKSE - Volume = 13,226,341,376.00, MA(Volume,7) = 41,037,303,808.00
13,226,341,376
41,037,303,808
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 6,417.0
_____ 6,347.4
6,381.5
Composite Index [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 7/1/2019
Prev. Avg. Price: 6,381.5
R-Squared: 0.7538
Period: 30
Std.Dev: 1.15
Volatility (+) : 0.0056
Volatility (-) : -0.0053
V-Ratio : 1.04
Chg.: 0.33%
6,379.69
17 24 Jul
^JKSE - Volume = 13,226,341,376.00 13,226,341,376
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 6,461.4
_____ 6,297.0
6,381.5
Composite Index [ ^JKSE ] - Weekly - 7/7/2019
Prev. Avg. Price: 6,381.5
R-Squared: 0.8364
Period: 202
Std.Dev: 1.40
Volatility (+) : 0.0125
Volatility (-) : -0.0132
V-Ratio : 0.95
Chg.: 0.33%
6,379.69
May Jun
^JKSE - Volume = 13,226,341,376.00, MA(Volume,7)
13,226,341,376
41,037,303,808
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 6,532.8
_____ 6,188.6
6,381.5
Composite Index [ ^JKSE ] - Monthly - 7/31/2019
Prev. Avg. Price: 6,381.5
R-Squared: 0.8485
Period: 49
Std.Dev: 1.44
Volatility (+) : 0.0237
Volatility (-) : -0.0302
V-Ratio : 0.78
Chg.: 0.33%
6,379.69
Oct 2019 Jul
^JKSE - Volume = 13,226,341,376.00, MA(Volume,9)
13,226,341,376
156,108,275,712
2 Juli, 2019
7
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Stocks on our focus list
Ciputra Development (CTRA) – Daily , Trading Buy
Harga akan coba naik mendekati center line pada uptrend channel
Secara umum harga saham ini berada dalam pola uptrend channel periode daily dimana
korelasi pergerakkan harga masih relatif valid (r-squared = 0.688) selama 30 hari
terakhir yang bergerak normal dalam rentang +/- 1.01 std.deviasi dari center line.
Harga keluar dari pergerakan normal hanya sekitar +31.24% (sekitar 9 bar chart ). Rata-
rata volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saat ini antara +2.95%/-2.83% atau +34.37
rupiah/ -32.97 rupiah (rata-rata pergerakan normal positif / negatif, selama periode
analisis) sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 7.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (July 1, 2019) 1,165(+1.30%) Trading range 1,140 - 1,210
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 10.52 Target
β (beta) 2.92 - Daily 1,210
Corelation 0.92 - Weekly 1,240
Period 30 - Monthly 1,330
r-squared 0.688 Stop loss 1,100
Volatility (+/-, %) +2.95/ -2.83
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) +34.37/ -32.97
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 7.Daily trend – Uptrend
ource: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 1,208.0
_____ 1,140.2
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Ciputra Development Tbk. [ CTRA ] - Daily - 7/1/2019 Open: 1,160 High: 1,205 Low: 1,150 Close: 1,165 Vol. 84,452,200
Prev. Avg. Price: 1,173.3
R-Squared: 0.6876
Period: 30
Std.Dev: 1.01
Volatility (+) : 0.0295
Volatility (-) : -0.0283
V-Ratio : 1.04
Chg.: 1.30%
1,165
1,147.25
1,147.25
1,136.73
1,097.58
1,059.93
1,057.3
1,196.91
1,237.19
Apr May Jun Jul
CTRA - Volume = 84,452,200.00, MA(Volume,4) = 61,203,976.00
84,452,200
61,203,976
2 Juli, 2019
8
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik masih terlihat.
Pada Figure 8, terlihat dari hasil optimasi pada indikator MFI optimized dan indikator
RSI optimized masih cenderung naik. Daily support 1,140 dan resistance di 1,210. Cut
loss level di 1,100.
Figure 8. Daily, MFI optimized & RSI optimized
X`Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
CTRA - MFI Smoothed = 93.80 93.8032
CTRA - Will%R Smoothed = -36.43
-36.4262
_____ 1,208.0
_____ 1,140.2
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Ciputra Development Tbk. [ CTRA ] - Daily - 7/1/2019 Open: 1,160 High: 1,205 Low: 1,150 Close: 1,165 Vol. 84,452,200
Prev. Avg. Price: 1,173.3
R-Squared: 0.6876
Period: 30
Std.Dev: 1.01
Volatility (+) : 0.0295
Volatility (-) : -0.0283
V-Ratio : 1.04
Chg.: 1.30%
1,165
1,136.73
1,059.93
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
CTRA - Volume = 84,452,200.00, MA(Volume,4) = 61,203,976.00
84,452,200
61,203,976
2 Juli, 2019
9
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Harga akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas rata-rata pada masing-masing periode.
Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harga saham saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan
diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area). Pada pergerakkan daily harga
saat ini di level +1.30%. Normal kenaikkan +2.95%. Pada pergerakkan weekly kenaikkan
normal di level +5.47% saat ini di level +1.30%. Sementara itu pada pergerakan monthly
saat ini di +1.30% dan normal kenaikkan +13.29%. Dengan demikian potensi kenaikkan
masih terlihat secara umum. Pada Figure 9,10 dan 11 terlihat perkiraan normal trading
range untuk masing-masing periode.
Figure 9. Daily : 1,140 – 1,210 Figure 10. Weekly : 1,110 – 1,240 Figure 11. Monthly : 1,060 – 1,330
x`x`
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 1,208.0
_____ 1,140.2
1,173.3
Ciputra Development Tbk. [ CTRA ] - Daily
Prev. Avg. Price: 1,173.3
R-Squared: 0.6876
Period: 30
Std.Dev: 1.01
Volatility (+) : 0.0295
Volatility (-) : -0.0283
V-Ratio : 1.04
Chg.: 1.30%
1,165
17 24 Jul
CTRA - Volume = 84,452,200.00 84,452,200
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 1,237.5
_____ 1,114.4
1,173.3
Ciputra Development Tbk. [ CTRA ] - Weekly
Prev. Avg. Price: 1,173.3
R-Squared: 0.7269
Period: 722
Std.Dev: 1.09
Volatility (+) : 0.0547
Volatility (-) : -0.0503
V-Ratio : 1.09
Chg.: 1.30%
1,165
May Jun
CTRA - Volume = 84,452,200.00, MA(Volume,7)
84,452,200
175,393,344
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 1,329.3
_____ 1,059.9
1,173.3
Ciputra Development Tbk. [ CTRA ] - Monthly
Prev. Avg. Price: 1,173.3
R-Squared: 0.7260
Period: 172
Std.Dev: 1.09
Volatility (+) : 0.1329
Volatility (-) : -0.0967
V-Ratio : 1.38
Chg.: 1.30%
1,165
Oct 2019 Jul
CTRA - Volume = 84,452,200.00, MA(Volume,9)
84,452,200
618,479,488
2 Juli, 2019
10
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Bank Tabungan Negara ( BBTN) –Daily , Trading Buy
Harga akan coba naik mendekati normal lower band pada uptrend channel
Secara umum harga saham ini masih berada diluar pola uptrend channel pada
pergerakkan daily dimana korelasi pergerakkan harga masih relatif valid (r-squared =
0.62) selama 30 hari terakhir dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/-0.87 std.deviasi
dari center line. Harga keluar dari pergerakan normal hanya sekitar +37.94 % (sekitar
11.40 bar chart ). Rata-rata volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saat ini antara +1.63%
/-1.7 % atau +41.08 rupiah / -42.84 rupiah (rata-rata pergerakan normal positif /
negatif, selama periode analisis) sebagaimana sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 12.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (July 1, 2019)) 2,520 (+2.44%) Trading range 2,470 - 2,550
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 0.16 Target
β (beta) 1.46 - Daily 2,550
Corelation 0.84 - Weekly 2,610
Period 30 - Monthly 2,730
r-squared 0.620 Stop loss 2,460
Volatility (+/-, %) +1.63/ -1.7
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) 41.08/ -42.84
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 12. Daily – Uptrend
x`
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
,
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 2,554.3
_____ 2,470.6
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk. [ BBTN ] - Daily - 7/1/2019 Open: 2,490 High: 2,530 Low: 2,490 Close: 2,520 Vol. 30,135,500
Prev. Avg. Price: 2,513.3
R-Squared: 0.6201
Period: 30
Std.Dev: 0.87
Volatility (+) : 0.0163
Volatility (-) : -0.0170
V-Ratio : 0.96
Chg.: 2.44%
2,520
2,514.41
2,535.59
2,589.66
2,603.42
2,687.01
2,687.01
2,770.6
2,859.62
Mar Apr May Jun Jul
BBTN - Volume = 30,135,500.00, MA(Volume,9) = 35,489,276.00
30,135,500
35,489,276
2 Juli, 2019
11
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik masih terlihat.
Pada Figure 13, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi indikator MFI optimized dan RSI
optimized masih cenderung naik. Daily support di 2,470 sementara itu daily
resistance di 2,550. Cut loss level di 1,440.
Figure 13. Daily, MFI optimized & RSI optimized
,
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
BBTN - MFI Smoothed = 25.42
25.4244
BBTN - Will%R Smoothed = -72.91
-72.9099
_____ 2,554.4
_____ 2,470.9
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk. [ BBTN ] - Daily - 7/1/2019 Open: 2,490 High: 2,530 Low: 2,490 Close: 2,520 Vol. 30,135,500
Prev. Avg. Price: 2,513.3
R-Squared: 0.6201
Period: 30
Std.Dev: 0.87
Volatility (+) : 0.0163
Volatility (-) : -0.0169
V-Ratio : 0.97
Chg.: 2.44%
2,520
2,535.59
2,589.66
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
BBTN - Volume = 30,135,500.00, MA(Volume,9) = 35,489,276.00
30,135,500
35,489,276
2 Juli, 2019
12
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Harga saat ini akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas rata-rata pada masing-masing
periode.
Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harga saham saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan
diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area) . Lebih lanjut potensi kenaikkan
normal harga pada pergerakkan daily sekitar +1.63% saat ini di level +2.44%.
Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly kenaikkan normal sekitar +3.84% saat ini
harga di level +2.44%. Pada pergerakan monthly kenaikkan normal sekitar +8.59% saat
ini di +2.44%. Dengan demikian diperkirakan potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat secara
umum. Pada Figure 14,15 dan 16 terlihat perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-
masing periode.
Figure 14. Daily : 2,470 – 2,550 Figure 15. Weekly : 2,420 – 2,610 Figure 16. Monthly : 2,330 – 2,730
, x`
x
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 2,554.3
_____ 2,470.6
2,513.3
Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk. [
Prev. Avg. Price: 2,513.3
R-Squared: 0.6201
Period: 30
Std.Dev: 0.87
Volatility (+) : 0.0163
Volatility (-) : -0.0170
V-Ratio : 0.96
Chg.: 2.44%
2,520
17 24 Jul
BBTN - Volume = 30,135,500.00
30,135,500
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 2,609.8
_____ 2,422.4
2,513.3
Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk. [
Prev. Avg. Price: 2,513.3
R-Squared: 0.7341
Period: 302
Std.Dev: 1.11
Volatility (+) : 0.0384
Volatility (-) : -0.0362
V-Ratio : 1.06
Chg.: 2.44%
2,520
May Jun
BBTN - Volume = 30,135,500.00, MA(Volume,7)
30,135,500
109,004,080
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 2,729.2
_____ 2,333.8
2,513.3
Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk. [
Prev. Avg. Price: 2,513.3
R-Squared: 0.7316
Period: 73
Std.Dev: 1.10
Volatility (+) : 0.0859
Volatility (-) : -0.0714
V-Ratio : 1.20
Chg.: 2.44%
2,520
Oct 2019 Jul
BBTN - Volume = 30,135,500.00, MA(Volume,9)
30,135,500
512,632,960
2 Juli, 2019
13
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Summarecon Agung (SMRA) – Daily , Trading Buy
Harga akan coba naik mendekati center line pada uptrend channel.
Secara umum harga saham ini bergerak dalam uptrend trend channel dimana korelasi
pergerakkan harga masih relatif valid (r-squared = 0.726) selama 30 hari terakhir dan
bergerak normal dalam rentang +/- 1.09 std.deviasi dari centerline. Harga keluar dari
pergerakan normalnya sekitar +27.44% (sekitar 8 bar chart ). Rata-rata volatilitas
normal pergerakan harga saat ini antara +3.52%/ -2.82% atau +39.65 rupiah / -34.30
rupiah (rata-rata pergerakan normal positif / negatif, selama periode analisis)
sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 17.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (July 1, 2019) 1,220 (+0.0%) Normal trading range 1,190 - 1,260
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 6.22 Target
β (beta) 2.45 - Daily 1,260
Corelation 0.91 - Weekly 1,300
Period 30 - Monthly 1,420
r-squared 0.726 Stop loss 1,170
Volatility (+/-, %) +3.52/ -2.82
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) +39.65./-34.30
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 17. Daily - Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
,
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 1,261.3
_____ 1,187.2
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Summarecon Agung Tbk. [ SMRA ] - Daily - 7/1/2019 Open: 1,225 High: 1,250 Low: 1,195 Close: 1,220 Vol. 23,947,100
Prev. Avg. Price: 1,221.7
R-Squared: 0.7256
Period: 30
Std.Dev: 1.09
Volatility (+) : 0.0325
Volatility (-) : -0.0282
V-Ratio : 1.15
Chg.: 0.00% 1,220
1,202.94
1,159.94
1,156.71
1,259.24
1,259.24
1,315.53
1,358.53
Apr May Jun Jul
SMRA - Volume = 23,947,100.00, MA(Volume,8) = 22,157,550.00
23,947,100
22,157,550
2 Juli, 2019
14
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik masih terlihat namun mulai terbatas.
Pada Figure 18, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi. Indikator MFI optimized dan indkator RSI
optimized masih coba bergerak naik. Perkiraan daily support di 1,190 dan daily
resistance di 1,260. Cut loss level di 1,170.
Figure 18. Daily,MFI optimized & RSI optimized
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
SMRA - MFI Smoothed = 93.80 93.8012
SMRA - RSI Smoothed = 71.21
71.2074
_____ 1,247.1_____ 1,200.1
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Summarecon Agung Tbk. [ SMRA ] - Daily - 7/1/2019 Open: 1,225 High: 1,250 Low: 1,195 Close: 1,220 Vol. 23,947,100
Prev. Avg. Price: 1,221.7
R-Squared: 0.7256
Period: 30
Std.Dev: 1.09
Volatility (+) : 0.0209
Volatility (-) : -0.0177
V-Ratio : 1.18
Chg.: 0.00%
1,220
1,156.71
1,093.61
Dec 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
SMRA - Volume = 23,947,100.00, MA(Volume,8) = 22,157,550.00
23,947,100
22,157,550
2 Juli, 2019
15
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Harga akan coba bertahan diatas rata-rata pada masing-masing periode.
Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harga saham saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan
diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area) . Jika dilihat lebih lanjut potensi
kenaikkan harga pada pergerakkan daily sekitar +3.25%, saat ini di level +0.0%. Pada
pergerakkan weekly potensi kenaikkan normal sekitar +6.61%, saat ini di level+ 0.0%.
Sementara pergerakkan monthly saat ini level +0.0% sementara kenaikkan normal di
+16.06%. Dengan demikian potensi kenaikkan secara umum masih terlihat. Pada Figure
19,20 dan 21 terlihat perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-masing periode.
Figure 19. Daily : 1,190 – 1,260 Figure 20. Weekly : 1,170 – 1,300 Figure 21. Monthly : 1,100 – 1,420
,,
x` x,
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Relative Avg.Price Performance to JCI (%) : Persentase kenaikan harga saham dari rata-rata sejak IHSG memulai uptrend-nya β (beta) : Indikator sensitivitas harga saham terhadap IHSG, beta diatas 1 berarti harga makin sensitif terhadap pergerakan IHSG dan sebaliknya Correlation : Ukuran kuat hubungan (korelasi) pergerakan harga saham dibanding dengan pergerakan IHSG selama periode analisis. Period : Periode uptrend / downtrend yang valid dari pergerakan harga saham. r-squared : Koefisien determinasi, menunjukkan persentase gerakan yang dapat dijelaskan dengan regresi linier.Nilai R2 terletak antara 0 – 1, dan kecocokan model dikatakan lebih baik kalau R2 semakin mendekati 1 (validitas uptrend atau downtrend makin valid) Volatility (+/-%) : Besaran volatilitas normal positif/negatif dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak normal pada trend channel dalam persentase. Volatility (+/- point or Rp) : Besaran volatilitas normal positifl/negatif dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak dalam periode analisis.
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 1,261.3
_____ 1,187.2
1,221.7
Summarecon Agung Tbk. [ SMRA ] - Daily
Prev. Avg. Price: 1,221.7
R-Squared: 0.7256
Period: 30
Std.Dev: 1.09
Volatility (+) : 0.0325
Volatility (-) : -0.0282
V-Ratio : 1.15
Chg.: 0.00%
1,220
17 24 Jul
SMRA - Volume = 23,947,100.00
23,947,100
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 1,302.4
_____ 1,156.2
1,211.7
Summarecon Agung Tbk. [ SMRA ] - Weekly
Prev. Avg. Price: 1,221.7
R-Squared: 0.8454
Period: 44
Std.Dev: 1.43
Volatility (+) : 0.0661
Volatility (-) : -0.0536
V-Ratio : 1.23
Chg.: 0.00%
1,220
Apr Jul
SMRA - Volume = 23,947,100.00, MA(Volume,7)
23,947,100
92,311,888
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 1,417.8
_____ 1,096.2
1,221.7
Summarecon Agung Tbk. [ SMRA ] - Monthly
Prev. Avg. Price: 1,221.7
R-Squared: 0.7405
Period: 252
Std.Dev: 1.12
Volatility (+) : 0.1606
Volatility (-) : -0.1027
V-Ratio : 1.56
Chg.: 0.00%
1,220
Oct 2019 Jul
SMRA - Volume = 23,947,100.00, MA(Volume,9)
23,947,100
386,132,160
2 Juli, 2019
16
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 22. JCI Vs. USD/IDR Chart 23. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative)
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 24. Foreigner’s net purchase (EM) Chart 25. Energy price
V
Note: The latest figure for India are June 28th, 2019
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 26. Non-ferrous metal price Chart 27. Precious metal price
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
13,800
14,200
14,600
15,000
15,400
5,400
5,800
6,200
6,600
4/1 4/29 5/27 6/24
(IDR) (pt) JCI (L) USD/IDR (R)
0.3 1.5
2.7
11.0
-0.5 -0.3
-3.9
10.6
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
1D 1W 1M 1Y
Absolute Relative(%, %p)
-14
294
54 153
-5
-83
526 528
755
505
-146
310
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Korea Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Philippines India
1 Day 5 Days (USDmn) (USDmn)
80
90
100
110
6/27 7/25 8/22 9/19
CPO WTI Coal(D-3M=100) (D-3M=100)
70
80
90
100
110
4/1 4/29 5/27 6/24
CPO WTI Coal(D-3M=100)
85
90
95
100
105
110
04/19 04/19 05/19 06/19
(D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin
85
95
105
115
04/19 04/19 05/19 06/19
(D-3M=100) Silver Gold Platinum
2 Juli, 2019
17
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Table. Key valuation metrics
Company Name Ticker Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)*
(IDR) (IDRbn) 1D 1W 1M 1Y FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19
Jakarta Composite Index JCI 6,380 7,291,821 0.3 1.5 2.7 11.0 15.8 14.1 2.3 2.1 17.4 12.8
FINANCIALS
Bank Central Asia BBCA 29,950 738,418 -0.1 2.0 2.9 39.6 24.8 28.8 4.2 4.9 18.3 18.3
Bank Mandiri Persero BMRI 8,000 373,333 -0.3 0.3 4.2 22.6 13.8 15.5 1.9 2.1 14.4 13.9
Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero BBRI 4,420 545,188 1.4 2.6 7.8 55.1 13.8 16.8 2.4 2.9 18.5 18.4
Bank Negara Indonesia Persero BBNI 9,375 174,831 1.9 5.6 11.6 33.0 10.9 11.4 1.5 1.6 14.5 14.6
Bank Tabungan Negara Persero BBTN 2,520 26,687 2.4 -6.3 2.0 6.8 21.5 11.1 1.8 1.1 9.8 10.5
CONSUMER
HM Sampoerna HMSP 3,070 357,096 -2.2 -4.1 -9.2 -16.1 32.0 27.0 12.2 10.2 39.0 38.2
Gudang Garam GGRM 76,700 147,578 -0.2 -0.7 -4.7 11.2 20.6 18.1 3.6 3.3 17.8 18.6
Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP 10,125 118,077 -0.2 1.8 3.3 14.1 26.7 26.8 5.6 5.3 22.2 20.9
Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF 7,075 62,122 0.7 0.4 7.2 8.4 15.7 15.6 1.9 1.8 12.8 12.2
Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,450 67,969 -0.7 -1.0 3.2 16.0 29.0 27.8 4.9 4.7 17.6 17.5
Unilever Indonesia UNVR 45,000 343,350 0.0 0.7 1.1 -0.8 38.0 43.0 46.9 54.4 145.1 139.8
AGRICULTURAL
Astra Agro Lestari AALI 10,825 20,835 4.1 5.4 2.6 -4.6 15.8 14.0 1.2 1.1 7.7 7.6
PP London Sumatera Indonesia LSIP 1,200 8,187 7.1 4.8 4.8 21.8 25.5 15.9 1.0 1.0 4.0 5.8
Sawit Sumbermas Sarana SSMS 1,015 9,668 0.5 0.5 -1.5 -19.8 138.1 17.2 2.9 2.2 2.1 12.8
INFRASTRUCTURE
XL Axiata EXCL 2,990 31,957 0.3 4.5 4.5 18.2 N/A 832.6 1.2 1.5 -16.5 0.3
Jasa Marga JSMR 5,900 42,821 3.1 0.9 3.5 40.8 14.1 19.2 1.8 2.4 13.8 12.7
Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 2,130 51,634 0.9 4.9 3.4 9.2 11.2 15.1 1.4 1.2 9.7 8.2
Tower Bersama Infrastructure TBIG 3,850 17,446 1.6 -0.3 5.2 -21.7 23.0 19.3 4.6 5.4 21.1 27.3
Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM 4,220 418,043 1.9 6.0 9.7 14.1 20.6 21.3 3.8 4.3 18.8 19.5
Soechi Lines SOCI 232 1,638 0.9 -2.5 13.7 44.1 4.7 N/A 0.2 N/A 4.2 N/A
Garuda Indonesia GIAA 386 9,992 5.5 -3.0 -10.6 59.5 N/A N/A 0.8 1.2 -19.1 -12.0
BASIC-INDUSTRIES
Semen Indonesia SMGR 12,475 73,996 7.8 10.4 8.0 79.5 22.2 29.4 2.2 2.4 10.2 8.3
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN 4,710 77,235 -0.4 6.6 -3.9 29.0 26.0 17.1 6.1 4.1 26.0 25.3
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP 20,675 76,109 3.4 3.4 -2.5 49.0 59.3 71.3 2.9 3.4 4.8 5.3
Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA 1,535 18,000 -1.0 2.7 2.3 -4.4 11.5 7.6 2.6 1.7 24.5 22.1
MINING
Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 17,825 20,141 1.6 4.7 1.7 -19.1 5.8 5.4 1.6 1.4 27.1 27.0
Adaro Energy ADRO 1,440 46,060 5.9 15.7 11.2 -17.5 6.4 7.8 0.7 0.9 11.7 11.8
Aneka Tambang ANTM 850 20,426 0.6 6.9 17.2 3.7 21.0 25.8 0.9 1.1 4.6 3.9
Vale Indonesia INCO 3,160 31,399 1.3 8.2 17.0 -22.5 36.8 32.0 1.2 1.2 3.3 4.0
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam PTBA 3,060 35,253 3.4 6.3 0.0 -23.5 9.0 6.9 2.8 2.1 33.9 35.3
TRADE
United Tractors UNTR 28,825 107,521 2.2 5.0 13.7 -11.0 9.2 9.5 1.9 2.0 22.4 22.1
AKR Corporindo AKRA 4,080 16,380 -0.2 -1.0 2.5 -1.2 24.0 18.5 2.1 2.0 20.7 13.1
Global Mediacom BMTR 380 5,827 1.6 1.6 -7.8 -29.0 4.1 N/A 0.4 N/A 8.8 N/A
Matahari Department Store LPPF 3,440 10,038 -0.3 1.5 -8.3 -60.9 14.9 5.9 8.8 3.1 53.0 65.7
Media Nusantara Citra MNCN 1,090 15,561 4.8 9.0 -4.4 19.1 5.7 11.1 0.9 1.5 16.2 14.1
Matahari Putra Prima MPPA 208 1,566 -2.8 -3.7 7.8 -19.4 N/A N/A 1.0 N/A -77.3 #N/A N/A Surya Citra Media SCMA 1,630 24,073 1.2 2.8 -1.2 -22.4 18.4 15.7 6.0 5.4 35.0 34.3
Siloam International Hospital SILO 4,600 7,479 -2.1 -5.2 7.7 -6.1 360.8 157.6 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.8
PROPERTY
Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 1,535 29,544 0.0 1.0 13.7 1.0 18.6 16.1 0.9 1.1 5.0 6.7
Adhi Karya ADHI 1,685 6,000 0.0 -0.3 16.2 -5.1 8.8 7.6 0.9 0.9 10.6 11.8
Alam Sutera Relaty ASRI 342 6,720 0.6 0.6 5.6 5.6 6.3 6.2 0.6 0.7 10.8 11.2
Ciputra Development CTRA 1,165 21,623 1.3 3.6 18.9 19.5 15.9 20.9 1.3 1.5 8.5 7.0
Lippo Karawaci LPKR 272 7,377 3.0 -6.2 6.4 2.6 8.9 6.9 0.3 0.4 3.3 5.6
Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 2,210 13,702 0.0 -3.1 12.2 8.9 7.5 8.7 0.9 1.0 12.4 12.5
Pakuwon Jati PWON 745 35,879 2.1 0.7 5.7 40.6 11.7 15.8 2.4 2.9 22.2 19.1
Summarecon Agung SMRA 1,220 17,601 0.4 1.7 17.9 43.5 25.9 49.7 1.7 2.7 6.7 5.4
Wijaya Karya WIKA 2,450 21,976 0.8 4.3 7.9 85.6 8.6 14.5 1.0 1.5 12.6 10.8
Waskita Karya WSKT 2,020 27,419 0.5 2.0 11.6 4.9 5.8 6.7 1.3 1.3 24.8 20.4
MISCELLANEOUS
Astra International ASII 7,375 298,566 -1.0 0.3 -1.0 18.0 15.4 13.4 2.4 2.2 16.6 16.5
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
*Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates
2 Juli, 2019
18
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance
Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%)
Agricultural 1,431.3 1.7 SMBR IJ 1250 12,416 11.11
Mining 1,735.0 1.1
ERAA IJ 2120 6,763 10.4
Basic-Industry 788.9 1.5 BRAM IJ 11700 5,265 8.3
Miscellaneous Industry 1,285.7 -0.6 MEDC IJ 875 15,609 8.02
Consumer Goods 2,378.3 -0.7 SMGR IJ 12475 73,996 7.78
Property & Construction 488.8 0.2
LSIP IJ 1200 8,187 7.14
Infrastructure 1,229.5 1.2 ISAT IJ 2810 15,269 6.84
Finance 1,310.1 0.3 INDY IJ 1780 9,274 5.95
Trade 806.7 0.2 ADRO IJ 1440 46,060 5.88
Composite 6,379.7 0.3 GIAA IJ 386 9,992 5.46 Source: Bloomberg
Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers
Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close
TLKM IJ 1.9 4,220 HMSP IJ -2.2 3,070
BBRI IJ 1.4 4,420 ASII IJ -1.0 7,375
SMGR IJ 7.8 12,475 EMTK IJ -2.9 7,475
BBNI IJ 1.9 9,375 TCPI IJ -3.6 6,675
ADRO IJ 5.9 1,440 FIRE IJ -16.8 3,970 Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
5:00am NZD NZIER Business Confidence -29
5:45am NZD Building Consents m/m -7.9%
6:50am JPY Monetary Base y/y 3.4% 3.6%
10:35am JPY 10-y Bond Auction -0.11|4.0
11:30am AUD Cash Rate 1.00% 1.25%
11:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement
1:00pm EUR German Retail Sales m/m 0.5% -2.0%
1:00pm GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 0.2% -0.2%
1:45pm EUR French Gov Budget Balance -67.2B
2:00pm EUR Spanish Unemployment Change -90.0K -84.1K
3:30pm GBP Construction PMI 49.4 48.6
4:00pm EUR PPI m/m 0.1% -0.3%
All Day All OPEC-JMMC Meetings
Tentative GBP 10-y Bond Auction 0.89|2.1
5:35pm USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
8:30pm CAD Manufacturing PMI 49.1
All Day USD Wards Total Vehicle Sales 17.0M 17.3M
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index -3.8%
Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time
Source: Forex Factory
2 Juli, 2019
19
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Disclaimers
This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia (MASI). It is purposed only to person having
professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No
warranty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our
judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of MASI and/or its affiliated companies
and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or
in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any
other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of
MASI, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims,
proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon
the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither MASI, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any
errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there
from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed.
This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. This firms and its affiliates and their officers and employees may have a position,
make markets, act as principal or engage in transaction in securities or related investments of any company mentioned herein, may perform services for or
solicit business from any company mentioned herein, and may have acted upon or used any of the recommendations herein before they have been provided
to you. © PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 2016.