unemployment

43
Unemployment Unemployment

Upload: lester-shaw

Post on 02-Jan-2016

14 views

Category:

Documents


2 download

DESCRIPTION

Unemployment. Unemployment. Supply and Demand Model. Supply - Demand Model. Wage. D’. S’. Supply. Rp 15. E. Rp 10. Demand. Unemployment = 4. 3. 5. 7. Employment. Supply Demand Model. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Unemployment

Unemployment

Unemployment

Page 2: Unemployment

2

Supply and Demand Model

Page 3: Unemployment

3

Supply - Demand Model

Wage

Employment

Supply

Demand

Rp 10

5

Rp 15

E

D’ S’

3 7Unemployment = 4

Page 4: Unemployment

4

Supply Demand Model

• Firm membayar upah yang lebih tinggi dari tingkat equilibrium sehingga terjadi excess supply TK.

• Tingkat upah bersifat “sticky” sehingga tidak dapat diatur menuju tingkat upah equilibrium.

Page 5: Unemployment

5

Pengangguran di Indonesia (Persen)

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

2.8

4.4

7.2

4.9 4.75.5

6.4 6.1

8.19.1

9.6 9.9

11.210.3

9.18.4

7.97.1

Page 6: Unemployment

TYPES OF UNEMPLOYMENT

6

Page 7: Unemployment

7

Frictional Unemployment

Frictional unemployment arises because both workers and firms need time to alocate each other and to digest the information about the value of the the job match.

Page 8: Unemployment

8

Frictional Unemployment

Bukan merupakan permasalahan utama dalam perekonomian

Page 9: Unemployment

9

Solusi :• Menyediakan informasi

kesempatan kerja bagi TK.• Menyediakan informasi pencari

kerja bagi perusahaan.

KATALISATOR PASAR KERJA

Frictional Unemployment

Page 10: Unemployment

10

• Imbalance between Labor Supply and Labor Demand

• The kinds of persons looking for work do not “fit” the jobs available

THE REAL PROBLEM IS SKILL

Structural Unemployment

Page 11: Unemployment

11

Structural Unemployment

Solusi : Peningkatan kualitas sumber daya manusia

PENDIDIKAN

Page 12: Unemployment

12

Cyclical Unemployment

Cyclical unemployment arises because of the economy has moved into a recession

Page 13: Unemployment

13

Cyclical Unemployment

Page 14: Unemployment

14

Cyclical Unemployment

To reduce cyclical unemployment, Government will have to stimulate aggregate demand and reestablish market equilibrium at the sticky wage

Page 15: Unemployment

15

Unemployment Data

Page 16: Unemployment

16

Jawa Barat Jawa Tengah Jawa Timur Banten D.K.I. Jakarta0

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

1,250,000

1,500,000

1,750,000

2,000,000

602,054362,289 247,574 178,533 72,781

499,600

294,212

207,679156,576

70,219

411,890

166,681

152,397153,000

192,921

281,345

95,819

129,799

62,225105,765

61,577

20,406

31,623

10,27623,366

112,540

67,066

50,388

19,067 101,461

≤ SD SMTP SMTA UmumSMTA Kejuruan Diploma Universitas

Penganggur Terbuka Nasional Menurut Propinsi dan Pendidikan (Februari 2012)

Page 17: Unemployment

17

Penganggur Terbuka Nasional Menurut Pendidikan dan Kategori (Februari 2012)

≤ SD SMTP SMTA Umum SMTA Keju-ruan

Diploma Universitas

1 1,071,044 1,085,163 1,495,076 815,400 193,068 407,886

2 29227 13845 32827 16284 17712 13538

3 953,666 527,661 386,073 128,158 27,459 99,686

4 75106 89781 69615 30483 14638 20845

13%

38%

63%

88%

1,071,0441,085,163

1,495,076 815,400 193,068 407,886

953,666527,661

386,073 128,158 27,459 99,686

1. Mencari pekerjaan, 2. Mempersiapkan usaha, 3. Tidak mencari pekerjaan, 4. Sudah punya pekerjaan tapi belum mulai bekerja

Page 18: Unemployment

18

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY EDUCATIONUSA 1970 -2002

Page 19: Unemployment

19

WORLD UNEMPLOYMENT MAP2012

Page 20: Unemployment

20

The Steady-State Rate ofUnemployment

Page 21: Unemployment

21

The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment

Employed( E worker)

Unemployed( U wokers)

Job loser ( l x E )

Job finders ( h x U )

l probability of losing a job

h probability of finding a job

Page 22: Unemployment

22

Long-run equilibrium unemployment rate konstan, sehingga dalam kondisi steady-state :

l E = h U

(Persamaan 1)

The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment

Page 23: Unemployment

23

Labor Force (LF) terdiri dari employed dan unemployed, maka

LF = E + U

(Persamaan 2)

The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment

Page 24: Unemployment

24

Subtitusi Persamaan 1 & 2 :

l (LF – U) = h U

(Persamaan 3)

The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment

Page 25: Unemployment

25

Unemployment Rate :

The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment

hl

l

LF

U

The Natural Rate of Unemployment

Page 26: Unemployment

26

Contoh : probabilitas lose jobs 0,01 dan probabilitas find jobs 0,1 ; maka unemployment rate =

The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment

%1,91,001,0

1,0

Page 27: Unemployment

27

The Steady-State Rate of UnemploymentJoseph Ritter : Labor Market Dynamics

Employed

Unemployed

1.8 Million

Out of Labor Force

1.5 Million3.0 Million

2.0 Million

3.2 Million 1.7 Million

119.2 Million 8.9 Million

65.2 Million

Page 28: Unemployment

28

The Wage Offer Distribution

Page 29: Unemployment

29

Asumsi : TK akan selalu mencari perkerjaan yang lebih baik.

The wage offer distribution menggambarkan distribusi frekuensi dari berbagai kesempatan kerja untuk unemployed worker di labor market.

The Wage Offer Distribution

Page 30: Unemployment

30

Trade off : semakin lama mencari pekerjaan yang lebih baik, semakin besar kesempatan mendapat gaji lebih tinggi dan semakin besar biaya mencari kerja.

The Wage Offer Distribution

Page 31: Unemployment

31

The Wage Offer Distribution

Wage

Fre

qu

ency

$ 5000 $8000 $ 22000 $ 25000

Kesempatan mendapat perkerjaan lebih besar

Page 32: Unemployment

32

The Asking Wage

Page 33: Unemployment

33

• Tingkat upah yang menentukan unemployed worker untuk menerima atau menolak tawaran kerja.

• Asking wage yang rendah menyebabkan cepat mendapatkan kerja, demikian sebaliknya.

The Asking Wage

Page 34: Unemployment

34

• Marginal Cost (MC) semakin tinggi karena merupakan perpaduan antara direct cost (misal : transportasi) dan opportunity cost karena berpindah firm.

• Marginal Revenue merupakan marginal gain dari better job.

The Asking Wage

Page 35: Unemployment

35

The Determination of The Asking WageThe Determination of The Asking Wage

Wage offer at hand

Do

llar

s

$10 $ 20w~

MC

MR

MR > MC

MR < MC

Asking Wage

Page 36: Unemployment

36

The Wage Curve

Page 37: Unemployment

37

The Wage Curve

Blanchflower & Oswald : semakin tinggi

unemployment rate maka upah cenderung

semakin rendah

Page 38: Unemployment

38

Wage

Unemployment Rate

...Semakin tinggi unemployment rate maka upah cenderung semakin rendah karena...??

A

B

UAUB

WA

WB

Page 39: Unemployment

39

The Phillips Curve

Page 40: Unemployment

40

The Phillips Curve

Diperkenalkan : W.H. Phillips (1958) tentang negative correlation antara

tingkat inflasi dan tingkat penganguran di Inggris periode 1861-1957

Page 41: Unemployment

41

Inflasi

Unemployment Rate5

0A

Perekonomian konstan sehingga asking wage

konstan

Expansionary Policy sehingga inflasi naik dan

pengangguran turun..

B7

3

Labor sadar upah tidak cukup sehingga asking wage dan pengangguran kembali ke posisi semula namun inflasi tetap...

C

Long run phillips curve

The Phillips Curve

Page 42: Unemployment

42

The Phillips Curve (USA)

Page 43: Unemployment

43

Terima kasih...