Download - Unemployment
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Unemployment
Unemployment
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Supply and Demand Model
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Supply - Demand Model
Wage
Employment
Supply
Demand
Rp 10
5
Rp 15
E
D’ S’
3 7Unemployment = 4
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Supply Demand Model
• Firm membayar upah yang lebih tinggi dari tingkat equilibrium sehingga terjadi excess supply TK.
• Tingkat upah bersifat “sticky” sehingga tidak dapat diatur menuju tingkat upah equilibrium.
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Pengangguran di Indonesia (Persen)
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
2.8
4.4
7.2
4.9 4.75.5
6.4 6.1
8.19.1
9.6 9.9
11.210.3
9.18.4
7.97.1
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TYPES OF UNEMPLOYMENT
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Frictional Unemployment
Frictional unemployment arises because both workers and firms need time to alocate each other and to digest the information about the value of the the job match.
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Frictional Unemployment
Bukan merupakan permasalahan utama dalam perekonomian
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Solusi :• Menyediakan informasi
kesempatan kerja bagi TK.• Menyediakan informasi pencari
kerja bagi perusahaan.
KATALISATOR PASAR KERJA
Frictional Unemployment
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• Imbalance between Labor Supply and Labor Demand
• The kinds of persons looking for work do not “fit” the jobs available
THE REAL PROBLEM IS SKILL
Structural Unemployment
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Structural Unemployment
Solusi : Peningkatan kualitas sumber daya manusia
PENDIDIKAN
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Cyclical Unemployment
Cyclical unemployment arises because of the economy has moved into a recession
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Cyclical Unemployment
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Cyclical Unemployment
To reduce cyclical unemployment, Government will have to stimulate aggregate demand and reestablish market equilibrium at the sticky wage
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Unemployment Data
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Jawa Barat Jawa Tengah Jawa Timur Banten D.K.I. Jakarta0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
1,500,000
1,750,000
2,000,000
602,054362,289 247,574 178,533 72,781
499,600
294,212
207,679156,576
70,219
411,890
166,681
152,397153,000
192,921
281,345
95,819
129,799
62,225105,765
61,577
20,406
31,623
10,27623,366
112,540
67,066
50,388
19,067 101,461
≤ SD SMTP SMTA UmumSMTA Kejuruan Diploma Universitas
Penganggur Terbuka Nasional Menurut Propinsi dan Pendidikan (Februari 2012)
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Penganggur Terbuka Nasional Menurut Pendidikan dan Kategori (Februari 2012)
≤ SD SMTP SMTA Umum SMTA Keju-ruan
Diploma Universitas
1 1,071,044 1,085,163 1,495,076 815,400 193,068 407,886
2 29227 13845 32827 16284 17712 13538
3 953,666 527,661 386,073 128,158 27,459 99,686
4 75106 89781 69615 30483 14638 20845
13%
38%
63%
88%
1,071,0441,085,163
1,495,076 815,400 193,068 407,886
953,666527,661
386,073 128,158 27,459 99,686
1. Mencari pekerjaan, 2. Mempersiapkan usaha, 3. Tidak mencari pekerjaan, 4. Sudah punya pekerjaan tapi belum mulai bekerja
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UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY EDUCATIONUSA 1970 -2002
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WORLD UNEMPLOYMENT MAP2012
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The Steady-State Rate ofUnemployment
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The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment
Employed( E worker)
Unemployed( U wokers)
Job loser ( l x E )
Job finders ( h x U )
l probability of losing a job
h probability of finding a job
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Long-run equilibrium unemployment rate konstan, sehingga dalam kondisi steady-state :
l E = h U
(Persamaan 1)
The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment
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Labor Force (LF) terdiri dari employed dan unemployed, maka
LF = E + U
(Persamaan 2)
The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment
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Subtitusi Persamaan 1 & 2 :
l (LF – U) = h U
(Persamaan 3)
The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment
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Unemployment Rate :
The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment
hl
l
LF
U
The Natural Rate of Unemployment
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Contoh : probabilitas lose jobs 0,01 dan probabilitas find jobs 0,1 ; maka unemployment rate =
The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment
%1,91,001,0
1,0
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The Steady-State Rate of UnemploymentJoseph Ritter : Labor Market Dynamics
Employed
Unemployed
1.8 Million
Out of Labor Force
1.5 Million3.0 Million
2.0 Million
3.2 Million 1.7 Million
119.2 Million 8.9 Million
65.2 Million
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The Wage Offer Distribution
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Asumsi : TK akan selalu mencari perkerjaan yang lebih baik.
The wage offer distribution menggambarkan distribusi frekuensi dari berbagai kesempatan kerja untuk unemployed worker di labor market.
The Wage Offer Distribution
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Trade off : semakin lama mencari pekerjaan yang lebih baik, semakin besar kesempatan mendapat gaji lebih tinggi dan semakin besar biaya mencari kerja.
The Wage Offer Distribution
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The Wage Offer Distribution
Wage
Fre
qu
ency
$ 5000 $8000 $ 22000 $ 25000
Kesempatan mendapat perkerjaan lebih besar
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The Asking Wage
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• Tingkat upah yang menentukan unemployed worker untuk menerima atau menolak tawaran kerja.
• Asking wage yang rendah menyebabkan cepat mendapatkan kerja, demikian sebaliknya.
The Asking Wage
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• Marginal Cost (MC) semakin tinggi karena merupakan perpaduan antara direct cost (misal : transportasi) dan opportunity cost karena berpindah firm.
• Marginal Revenue merupakan marginal gain dari better job.
The Asking Wage
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The Determination of The Asking WageThe Determination of The Asking Wage
Wage offer at hand
Do
llar
s
$10 $ 20w~
MC
MR
MR > MC
MR < MC
Asking Wage
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The Wage Curve
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The Wage Curve
Blanchflower & Oswald : semakin tinggi
unemployment rate maka upah cenderung
semakin rendah
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Wage
Unemployment Rate
...Semakin tinggi unemployment rate maka upah cenderung semakin rendah karena...??
A
B
UAUB
WA
WB
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The Phillips Curve
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The Phillips Curve
Diperkenalkan : W.H. Phillips (1958) tentang negative correlation antara
tingkat inflasi dan tingkat penganguran di Inggris periode 1861-1957
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Inflasi
Unemployment Rate5
0A
Perekonomian konstan sehingga asking wage
konstan
Expansionary Policy sehingga inflasi naik dan
pengangguran turun..
B7
3
Labor sadar upah tidak cukup sehingga asking wage dan pengangguran kembali ke posisi semula namun inflasi tetap...
C
Long run phillips curve
The Phillips Curve
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The Phillips Curve (USA)
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Terima kasih...