temario macro primavera 2010 100121

22 de enero, 2010.

INSTITUTO TECNOLGICO AUTNOMO DE MXICOLicenciatura en EconomaMacroeconoma Avanzada

Prof. Ernesto Revilla Eco 12121. Primavera 2010.

El objetivo del curso es finalizar la secuencia de macroeconoma de la licenciaturaenfocndonos principalmente a temas de poltica econmica y de resoluciones de crisismacroeconmicas. El curso se impartir los viernes de 7:00am a 10:00am, en el saln 105 deRo Hondo. Los laboratoristas del curso sern Fernanda Mrquez Padilla y Rodrigo SnchezGavito (mircoles de 17:00 a 18:30, saln 207). La evaluacin del curso estar dada por unexamen parcial y un final que aportarn el 90% de la calificacin total como sigue:

Calificacin de exmenes = max [Calif. Final, *(Calif. Final)+ *(Calif. Parcial)].

Las tareas del curso aportaran el 10% restante. Los libros de texto del curso son:

David Romer, Advanced Macroeconomics, Mc-Graw Hill, tercera edicin. Doepke, Lehnert y Sellgren. Macroeconomics. Mimeo, University of Chicago, (DLS).

Otros libros sugeridos son:

Sala-i-Martin. Apuntes de Crecimiento Econmico Antoni Bosch, 2 edicin.Blanchard y Fisher. Lectures on Macroeconomics, MIT Press.Acemoglu. Introduction to Modern Economic Growth. Princeton University Press.

Cmo contactarme:Ernesto RevillaSecretara de Hacienda y Crdito PblicoPalacio NacionalTel: [email protected] material del curso est en la pgina de comunidad ITAM.

Ernesto Revilla Macro Avanzada

22 de enero, 2010. 2

Las lecturas con asterisco (*) son obligatorias.

0. Introduccin y preliminares. (*) Lucas, R.E. Jr. What economists do. Mimeo, The University of Chicago. Tambin

en Gaceta de Economa, ITAM No. 23. (*) SHCP Cuarto Informe Trimestral de la Situacin Econmica, las Finanzas Pblicas y

la Deuda Pblica, 2009. Blanchard, O., What do we know about macroeconomics that Fisher and Wicksell did

not? Quarterly Journal of Economics, November 2000, 115:4, 1375-1410. Mankiw, G. A quick refresher course in macroeconomics. Journal of Economic

Literature, vol. 18, 1990. Mankiw, G. The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer, Journal of Economic

Perspectives, vol. 20, nm. 4, 29-46 pp. Woodford, M., Revolution and Evolution in twentieth-century macroeconomics, en P.

Gifford, ed., Frontiers of the mind in the twenty-first century, Harvard University Press. Blanchard, O., y Fisher, S., Lectures on macroeconomics. MIT Press, cap. 1. The State of Macroeconomics, The Economist, 16 de julio, 2009. Krugman, Paul, How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?, New York Times Magazine, 2

de septiembre, 2009. Lucas, Robert, Robert Lucas on Economics, The Economist, 6 de agosto, 2009.

Parte I. Crecimiento econmico y ciclos reales.

1. Crecimiento. El modelo de Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans. (*) Romer cap. 2a. (*) Lucas, R.E. Jr. Lectures on economic growth, Harvard University Press.

Introduccin (especialmente subseccin 4). (*) Acemoglu, cap. 1 y 2. Sala-i-Martin, X. Apuntes de crecimiento econmico, cap. 2. Mankiw G., D. Romer, y D.N. Weil. A contribution to the empirics of economic growth,

Quarterly Journal of Economics 107:407-437.


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2. Poltica econmica para el crecimiento. (*) Hausmann, R., D. Rodrik y A. Velasco, (2005) Growth Diagnostics, en Rodrik, D.,

One Economics, Many Recipes, Princeton, 2007. Aghion, P. y S. Durlauf. From growth theory to policy design, Mimeo, Abril 2007. D. Rodrik, Goodbye Washington Consensus, Hello Washington Confusion?, Journal of

Economic Literature, January 2006. Williamson, J. What should the World Bank think about the Washington Consensus?

World Bank Research Observer Vol. 15, No. 2 (Agosto 2000) Barro, R. y J.W. Lee Sources of economic growth, Carnegie-Rochester Conference

Series on Public Policy, 1994. M. Spence, et al. (2008) The Growth Report: strategies for sustained growth and

inclusive development, Comission on Growth and Development, The World Bank.

3. Ciclos reales. (*) Romer cap. 4. DLS cap. 9. Plosser, C. (1989) Understanding Real Business Cycles, Journal of Economic

Perspectives, 3:3, pp. 51-78. Lettau, M. (2003) Inspecting the mechanism: closed form solutions for asset prices in

real business cycle models, The Economic Journal, 113 July 550-575. Neumeyer, P. y F. Perri (2005) Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of

interest rates, Journal of Monetary Economics 52, 345-380. Aguiar, M. y G. Gopinath (2007) Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the

Trend, Journal of Political Economy, Volume 115 (1). Kim, I. y P. Loungani (1992) The Role of Energy in Real Business Cycle Models.

Journal of Monetary Economics 29, 173-189. North Holland. Romer, C. (1999) Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations, Journal of

Economic Perspectives, Vol. 13, Number 2, pp. 23-44.


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Parte II. Poltica Fiscal

4. Gasto pblico. (*) DLS cap. 12. Sols Sobern, Fernando. Los sistemas de pensiones en Mxico y la agenda

pendiente, en Una Agenda para las Finanzas Pblicas de Mxico, Gaceta deEconoma, ITAM, 2000.

Spilimbergo A., S Symansky y M. Schindler, Fiscal Multipliers, IMF Staff Position NoteNo. 11, May 2009.

5. Impuestos. (*) DLS cap. 13. (*) Easterly, W. y S. Rebelo (1993) Fiscal policy and economic growth: an empirical

investigation, Journal of Monetary Economics, 32:417-458, Dic. Atkeson, A., V.V. Chari y P.J. Kehoe (1999) Taxing capital Income: A Bad Idea. Federal

Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, vol. 23, No 3, pp. 3-17. Aiyagari, S.R., A. Marcet, T. Sargent, y J. Seppala (2002) Optimal Taxation Without

State Contingent Debt, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 110, no. 6. Aiyagari, S.R. (1989) How should Taxes Be Set?, Federal Reserve Bank of

Minneapolis Quarterly Review Vol. 13, No. 1, pp. 22-32.

6. Deuda y poltica fiscal. (*) DLS cap. 14. (*) Romer cap. 11.1 - 11.4. (*) Barro, R., (1999) Notes on optimal debt management, Mimeo, Harvard University. (*) Cuevas, A. et al (2001) Pension Reform and the Fiscal Policy Stance, International

Monetary Fund, Working Paper WP/01/214. Burnside, C., M. Eichenbaum y S. Rebelo (2001) Prospective Deficits and the Asian

Currency Crisis, The Journal of Political Economy, vol. 109, No. 6, pp. 1155-1197. Lucas, R.E. Jr., y N. Stokey. (1983) Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy

without capital, Journal of Monetary Economics 12:55-93. Golosov, M., A. Tsivinsky, e I. Werning, (2007), New Dynamic Public Finance: A Users

Guide, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, MIT press.


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Parte III. Coordinacin entre la poltica fiscal y monetaria

7. Poltica fiscal y monetaria. (*) DLS cap. 18. (*) Sargent, Tom. The ends of four big inflations, en R. Hall ed., Inflation, Chicago

University Press. Sargent y Wallace (1981) Some unpleasant monetaristic arithmetic, Federal Reserve

Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, Otoo. Golosov, M. y A. Tsyvinski (2006a) Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy With

Commitment, New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics and Law. Golosov, M. y A. Tsyvinski (2006b) Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy Without

Commitment, New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics and Law.

Parte IV. Intermediacin y crisis financieras.

8. Intermediacin financiera. (*) DLS cap. 17. Williamson, S.D., (1987) Financial intermediation, business failures and real business

cycles, Journal of Political Economy, 95(6), pp. 1196-1216. Diamond, D.W. y P.H. Dybig, (1993). Bank runs, deposit insurance and liquidity,

Journal of Political Economy, 91(3), pp. 401-19. Freixas X. y J.C. Rochet. Microeconomics of banking MIT Press. caps. 6 y 7. Dewatripont, M. y J. Tirole. The prudential regulation of banks, MIT Press.


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Parte V. Grandes depresiones y recomendaciones de poltica.

9. La Gran Depresin (1930s). Bernanke, B. (1994) The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative

Approach, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 4814. Kehoe, T. J., y Edward Prescott, (2002), Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century,

Review of Economics Dynamics, Vol.5(1), pp.1-18. Temin, P. (2008): Real Business Cycles Views of the Great Depression and Recent

Events. Journal of Economic Literature, 46:3, 669-684. Friedman, M. Y A. Schwartz, A monetary history of the US, 1867-1960, Princeton

University Press, Captulo 3. Fisher, Irving, (1993) The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions, Econometrica

1:337-357. Romer, C., (1993), "The Nation in Depression", Journal of Economic Perspecives, 7, 2. Gandolfi y Lothin (1977), "Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression?", Journal

of Money, Credit and Banking.

10. Japn (1990s). Hoshi, T., y A. K. Kashyap (1999) The Japanese Financial Crisis: Where Did It Come

From and How Will It End?, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper7250.

Hoshi, T., y A. K. Kashyap (2004) Japan's Financial Crisis and Economic Stagnation,Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol.18, No.1.

Hayashi, F., y E. Prescott, (2002) The 1990s in Japan: a Lost Decade, Review ofEconomic Dynamics, 5, 206-235.


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11. La Crisis Global (2007-2009). Hechos estilizados y recomendaciones de poltica?

Keynes, J.M. (1933), "An open letter to President Roosevelt", New York Times, Dec. 31. Reinhart, C., y K. Rogoff, (2008) This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight

Centuries of Financial Crises, NBER Working Paper, No. 13882. Reinhart, C., y K. Rogoff, (2009) The Aftermath of Financial Crises, AEA Papers and

Proceedings. Claessens, S., M.A. Kose, y M.E. Terrones (2008) What Happens During Recessions,

Crunches and Busts?, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Romer, C. y D. H. Romer, (1994) What Ends Recessions?, NBER Macroeconomics

Annual 1994, pp. 13-79. Spilimbergo A., S. Symansky, O. Blanchard y C. Cottarelli (2008), Fiscal Policy For The

Crisis, IMF Staff Position Note SPN/08/01, International Monetary Fund. Blanchard, O. and G.M. Milesi-Ferreti, Global Imbalances: In Midstream?, IMF Staff

Position Note No. 29, December 2009.

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