Download - Ind rockliffe 11
Aspek Sosial Ekonomi pada preservasi dan pemeliharaan aset
Nigel Rockliffe
Arif Wismadi
2
Tujuan
1. Suatu proyek percontohan untuk ‘pengembangan dan pemeliharaan suatu kebijakan uji coba yang komprehensif dan [PPB] prosedur dan perangkat ... dan untuk menyediakan dan mengkoordinasikan dukungan dalam pelatihan dan penyebarluasan semua kegiatan. "
2. Suatu strategi 'sosialisasi' untuk mempromosikan penerapan sikap budaya dan norma mengenai pentingnya pemeliharaan jalan.
3. Mendukung sosialisasi manfaat pemeliharaan dan preservasi jalan, berdasarkan implikasi biaya siklus umur rencana jalan ... .. untuk mendukung tujuan pembangunan nasional dan regional
3
Part 1
Roads in service
4
Roads in service
The Goldilocks principle
5
Hailan Haiwe, PNG
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
Option 0 (Base) Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Option 5
Road agency
Road user
0 – Minimum1 – High repairs2 – Scheduled seal + high3 – KRGMP pre-emptive 4 – KRGMP pre-emptive + shape5 – Min + structural overlay
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2004/Dec 2005/Dec 2006/Dec 2007/Dec 2008/Dec 2009/Dec
Ro
ugh
ne
ss (
IRI)
↙ Slow response
↖ Rapid response
6
Treatment options
1 Minimum repairs
2 Intermediate repairs
3 High repairs
4 Pre-emptive repairs
5 Pre-emptive and periodic
6 Pre-emptive and full menu
7 Business as usual (national)
8 Business as usual (provincial)
9 Pre-emptive and modified full menu
7
Comparing treatment options
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
Repairs only (intermediate) Unconstrained BAU National Unconstrained Full pre-emptive
Unconstrained BAU Provincial
Co
st (
$m
)
RAC
RUC
• Undertaking major works saves money in the long run.
• Optimal option is ‘Full-pre-emptive’.
Two kinds of efficiency
TTC
RAC
RUC
Cost
Level of service
Technical efficiency
Allocative efficiency
Better ride quality
Where we
are now
Where we
want to be
• Maximise technical efficiency.
• Maximise allocative efficiency by...
• trading off RUCs and RACs to minimise total transport cost.
• This is the optimal level of service.
9
Roads in service
A stitch in time saves nine
10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
10 450
10 500
10 550
10 600
10 650
10 700
10 750
2 6 12
Dis
cou
nte
d R
AC
($ m
illio
ns)
Dis
cou
nte
d R
UC
an
d T
TC ($
mill
ion
s)
Response time (months)
RUC
TTC
RAC
It pays to be on time
• Conducting repairs promptly is often win-win.
• Even when it’s win-lose, it’s beneficial overall. So road users can pay for it and still be ahead.
• It reduces costs for road users and the road agency alike.
How routine maintenance affects defects
Area affected by defects (%)
Age of pavement
Poor maintenance
Good maintenance
• Once they start, defects grow explosively.
• Good routine maintenance can delay their onset.
How routine maintenance affects roughness
Roughness
Age of pavement
• As defects grow, roughness rises, which increases
• vehicle operating cost
• travel time
• discomfort.
• Good routine maintenance keeps pavements smoother longer.
Poor maintenance
Good maintenance
All maintenance must be timely
Life-cycle cost
Age of pavement
Routine Periodic
Routine Periodic
Routine
Periodic
Routine
Periodic
Policy space
• Both routine and periodic maintenance must be on time.
• If either is late, RUC and RAC are higher than they need be.
• Prompt routine maintenance extends road life and requires less frequent periodic maintenance .
14
Jalan dalam pelayanan
Ambillah Pesan
1. Goldilocks menunjukkan bahwa melaksanakan ‘major works’ akan menyelamatkan uang dalam jangka lama ke depan.
2. Pemeliharaan yang tepat dancepat adalah ‘win-win’: tindakan ini dapat mengurangi biaya pengguna jalan maupun yang harus dipikul oleh pemerintah.
15
Part 2
Roads in crisis
16
Roads in crisis
A little goes a long way
17
The demand for trips
Source: Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS)
Exponent is ‘price elasticity of demand’ and measures
responsiveness of travel to changes in price. ↓
↙ Distance is a proxy for price.
• Demand is relatively inelastic (–0.46), typical of a ‘necessary’ good like healthcare.
• ‘Discretionary’ trips, such as VFR, are expected to be far more price-elastic.
y = 19.973x-0.46
R² = 0.5943
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Dis
tan
ce (
km
)
Demand (trips/million population)
Exponent is ‘price elasticity of demand’ and measures responsiveness of travel to changes in price. ↓
↙ Distance is a proxy for price.
• Demand for Puskesmas trips is relatively inelastic (–0.5), typical of a ‘necessary’ good like healthcare.
• ‘Discretionary’ trips, such as VFR, are expected to be far more price-elastic.
18
Benefit
Social benefit
Outcomes
Health• Morbidity• Mortality• Life expectancy
Education• Attendance• Attainment
Income • Poverty rate• Surat k. miskin
Other
Inputs, outputs, outcomes and benefit
Outputs
‘Consumption’ of trips
Demand curve
Distance to destination
Road condition
‘Price’ of trip
Inputs
19
The social benefit of trips
Price
Trips per person
Partial access
Full access
No motorable access
20
No motorable
access
Partial access (95% of time)
A little maintenance goes a long way
Benefit
Cost
Marginal benefit
Total benefit
Partial access (99% of time)
Full access
21
Roads in crisis
Roads are good for people
22
Poor roads are linked to poverty...
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Sealed Unsealed Earth
Ho
use
ho
lds
in p
ove
rty
(%)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Sealed Unsealed Earth
Ho
use
ho
lds
rece
ivin
g su
rat
kete
ran
ga
n m
iski
n(%
/y)
Sealed roads are associated with
← fewer households in poverty...
↓ and fewer surat keterangan miskin.
But...
• Poverty is not all attributable to road condition; other facilities must change too.
• Causality is not one-way: the poor may lack good roads for other reasons.
Source: Potensi Desa (Podes)
23
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Sealed Unsealed Earth
Mo
rtal
ity
(de
ath
s/1
00
00
0 h
hld
/y)
... and to poor health
0
5
10
15
20
25
Sealed Unsealed Earth
Dis
tan
ce t
o n
ear
est
Pu
ske
smas
(km
)
← Sealed roads are associated with greatly reduced mortality.
But is this because they are nearer to medical
facilities (Puskesmas)?→
Source: Potensi Desa (Podes)
24
Jalan dalam krisis
PESAN UNTUK DIBAWAH PULANG1. Suatu pemeliharaan jalan lebih ilaksanakan secara
menyeluruh dan terpadu dari pada dilaksanakan secara sepotong-sepotong.
2. Penetapan kebutuhan perjalanan adalah hal yang penting yang dapat mempermudah perhitungan manfaat sosial, yang akan mengarah pada perhitungan kebutuhan sumber daya.
3. Ada hubungan antara kondisi jalan dengan kesejahteraan masyarakat
25
Thank you