ARUS DANA INTERNASIONAL

MATERI 2

NERACA PEMBAYARAN

• NERACA PEMBAYARAN MERUPAKAN RINGKASAN TRANSAKSI PADA SUATU NEGARA TERTENTU ANTARA WARGA NEGARA DOMESTIK DAN ASING PADA PERIODE TERTENTU

• NERACA INI MENGGAMBARKAN AKUNTANSI DARI TRANSAKSI INTERNASIONAL SUATU NEGARA PADA SATU PERIODE, BIASANYA SELAMA SATU KUARTAL ATAU SATU TAHUN

• NERACA INI MENCATAT TRANSAKSI USAHA, INDIVIDU SUATU NEGARA

NERACA BERJALAN

• MENCERMINKAN RINGKASAN ARUS DANA ANTARA NEGARA TERTENTU DENGAN NEGARA LAIN YANG DISEBABKAN KARENA PEMBELIAN BARANG DAN JASA ATAU CADANGAN LABA DALAM BENTUK ASET KEUANGAN

NERACA MODAL• ADALAH RINGKASAN ARUS DANA YANG BERASAL DARI PENJUALAN

ASET ANTARA SATU NEGARA TERTENTU DENGAN NEGARA LAIN SELAMA SATU PERIODE TERTENTU

• KOMPONEN INTI DARI NERACA MODAL ADALAH INVESTASI ASING LANGSUNG, INVESTASI PORTOFOLIO DAN INVESTASI MODAL LAINNYA

• INVESTASI ASING LANGSUNG (DIRECT FOREIGN INVESTMENT) MENCERMINKAN INVESTASI PADA AKTIVA TETAP PADA NEGARA ASING YANG DAPAT DIGUNAKAN UNTUK MELAKUKAN OPERASI USAHA.

• CONTOH INVESTASI ASING LANGSUNG MENCAKUP AKUISISI PERUSAHAAN ASING, PEMBANGUNAN PABRIK BARU ATAU PERLUASAN PABRIK YANG TELAH ADA DI NEGARA ASING

CONTOH TRANSAKSI NERACA BERJALANTRANSAKSI PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL

POSISI ARUS KAS AS JUMLAH PADA NERACA PEMBAYARAN

JC PENNEY MEMBELI STEREO YANG DIPROSUKSI DI INDONESIA

ARUS KELUAR AS DEBIT

PERUSAHAAN MEXICO MEMBAYAR JASA KONSULTAN AS

ARUS KAS MASUK KREDIT

TOKO BUKU DI IRLANDIA MEMBELI BUKU TEKS YANG DIPRODUKSI DI AS

ARUS KAS MASUK KREDIT

ARUS PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL

• KANADA DAN NEGARA EROPA LEBIH TERGANTUNG KEPADA PERDAGANGAN DIBANDINGKAN DENGAN NEGARA AS

• VOLUME PERDAGANGAN EKSPOR DAN IMPOR KANADA MENCAPAI 50% DARI PDBNYA

• VOLUME PERDAGANGAN NEGARA EROPA MENCAPAI 30-40% DARI PDB-NYA

• VOLUME PERDAGANGAN AS DAN JEPANG MENCAPAI 10-20% DARI PDB-NYA

KESEPAKATAN PERDAGANGAN• DESEMBER 1993 TERJD PENJANJIAN GENERAL AGREMENT ON TARIFFS AND TRADE

(GATT)• GATT DISEPAKATI OLEH 117 NEGARA• GATT BERISI KESEPAKATAN BEA MASUK YANG LEBIH RENDAH DISELURUH DUNIA• NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT (NAFTA) BERISI PENGHAPUSAN

BATASAN PERDAGANGAN ANTARA KANADA, MEXICO DAN AS• PERJANJIAN INI MERUPAKAN KELANJUTAN DARI PERJANJIAN TAHUN 1989 YANG

BERISIS PENGURANGAN PEMBATASAN PERDAGANGAN• STANDARISASI SPESIFIKASI PRODUK DISELURUH EROPA SELAMA TAHUN 1990AN

MENGHAPUS SEBAGIAN BESAR BATASAN PERDAGANGAN• DIGUNAKAN EURO SEBAGAI MATA UANG TUNGGAL DI SEBAGIAN BESAR NEGARA

EROPA MENDUKUNG PERDAGANGAN ANTARA NEGARA DI EROPA• JUNI 2003 AS DAN CILE MENANDATANGANI PERJANJIAN PERDAGANGAN BEBAS

UNTUK MENGHAPUS BEA MASUK ATAS LEBIH DARI 90% PRODUK YANG DIPERDAGANGKAN ANTARA KEDUA NEGARA

KETIDAKSEPAKATAN DALAM PERDAGANGAN

• SITUASI YANG BIASA TERJADI :A. PERUSAHAAN TIDAK TERKENA BATASAN LINGKUNGAN

DAN KARENANYA DAPAT BERPRODUKSI DENGAN BIAYA LEBIH RENDAH DIBANDINGKAN DENGAN NEGARA LAIN

B. TIDAK TERKENA UNDANG-UNDANG TENAGA KERJA ANAK

C. DIJINKAN MELAKUKAN PENYUAPAND. ADANYA SUBSIDI DAN DUMPINGE. ADANYA POTONGAN PAJAK

KURS MATA UANG SEBAGAI KEBIJAKAN

• 36 major currencies, such as the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, the Euro, and the British pound are determined largely by market forces.

• 50 countries, including the China, India, Russia, and Singapore, adopt some forms of “Managed Floating” system.

• 41 countries do not have their own national currencies!• 40 countries, including many islands in the Caribbean, many

African nations, UAE and Venezuela, do have their own currencies, but they maintain a peg to another currency such as the U.S. dollar.

• The remaining countries have some mixture of fixed and floating exchange-rate regimes.

The EuroProduct of the desire to create a more integrated

European economy.Eleven European countries adopted the Euro on

January 1, 1999: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg,

Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain.

The following countries opted out initially: Denmark, Greece, Sweden, and the U.K.

Euro notes and coins were introduced in 2002Greece adopted the Euro in 2001Slovenia adopted the Euro in 2007

10

The Foreign Exchange MarketThe FX market encompasses:

Conversion of purchasing power from one currency to another; bank deposits of foreign currency; credit denominated in foreign currency; foreign trade financing; trading in foreign currency options & futures, and currency swaps

No central market placeWorld-wide linkage of bank currency traders, non-bank

dealers (IBanks, insurance companies, etc.), and FX brokers—like an international OTC market

Largest financial market in the worldDaily trading is estimated to be US$3.21 trillionTrading occurs 24 hours a dayLondon is the largest FX trading center

11

The Foreign Exchange Market• The FX market is a two-tiered market:

– Interbank Market (Wholesale)• Accounts for about 83% of FX trading volume—mostly speculative or

arbitrage transactions• About 100-200 international banks worldwide stand ready to make a

market in foreign exchange• FX brokers match buy and sell orders but do not carry inventory and FX

specialists– Client Market (Retail)

• Accounts for about 17% of FX trading volume• Market participants include international banks, their customers, non-bank

dealers, FX brokers, and central banks

Note: Data is from 2007. 12

The Foreign Exchange Market

13

The Spot Market – Direct Quotes• US dollar price of 1 unit of foreign currency—$ are in the numerator

(foreign currency is priced in terms of dollars)– $/€ = 1.5000 (1€ costs $1.5000)– $/£ = 2.0000 (1£ costs $2.0000)

• Currency changes– Suppose that today, $/€ = 1.5000 and in 1 month, $/€ = 1.5050

• The $ has depreciated in value• Alternatively, the € has appreciated in value

– Suppose that today, $/£ = 2.0000 and in 1 month, $/£ = 1.9950• The $ has appreciated in value• Alternatively, the £ has depreciated in value

14

The Spot Market – Indirect Quotes• Foreign currency price of $1—$ are in the denominator (US dollar is priced

in terms of foreign currency)– €/$ = 0.6667 ($1costs €0.6667)– £/$ = 0.5000 ($1 costs £0.5000)

• Currency changes– Suppose that today, €/$ = 0.6667 and in 1 month, €/$ = 0.6600

• The $ has depreciated in value• Alternatively, the € has appreciated in value

– Suppose that today, £/$ = 0.5000 and in 1 week, £/$ = 0.5050.• The $ has appreciated in value• Alternatively, the £ has depreciated in value

15

The Spot Market - Conventions• Denote the spot rate as S• For most currencies, use 4 decimal places in calculations

– With exceptions: i.e. S(¥/$)=109.0750, but S($/¥)=0.009168• If we are talking about the US, always quote spot rates as the dollar price

of the foreign currency– i.e. as direct quotes, S($/€), S($/C$), S($/£), etc

• Increase in the exchange rate the US dollar is depreciating– Costs more to buy 1 unit of foreign currency

• Decrease in the exchange rate the US dollar is appreciating– Costs less to buy 1 unit of foreign currency

16

The New York foreign exchange selling rates below apply to trading among banks in amounts of $1 million and more, as quoted at 4 p.m. Eastern time by Dow Jones Telerate Inc. and other sources. Retail transactions provide fewer units of foreign currency per dollar.

Special Drawing Rights (SDR) are based on exchange rates for the U.S., German, British, French, and Japanese currencies. Source: International Monetary Fund. European Currency Unit (ECU) is based on a basket of community currencies. a-fixing, Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange.

EXCHANGE RATES

Country Argentina (Peso) Australia (Dollar) Austria (Schilling) Bahrain (Dinar) Belgium (Franc) Brazil (Real) Britain (Pound) 30-Day Forward 90-Day Forward 180-Day Forward Canada (Dollar) 30-Day Forward 90-Day Forward 180-Day Forward Chile (Peso) China (Renminbi) Colombia (Peso) Czech. Rep (Krouna) Commercial rate Denmark (Krone) Ecuador (Sucre) Floating rate Finland (Markka) France (Franc) 30-Day Forward 90-Day Forward 180-Day Forward Germany (Mark) 30-Day Forward 90-Day Forward 180-Day Forward Greece (Drachma) Hong Kong (Dollar) Hungary (Forint) India (Rupee) Indonesia (Rupiah) Ireland (Punt) Israel (Shekel) Italy (Lira)

Wed. 1.0012

.7805 .09043 2.6525 .03080

.9607 1.6880 1.6869 1.6843 1.6802

.7399

.7414

.7442

.7479 .002352

.1201 .0009985

.... .03662

.1663 ....

.0002766 .2121 .1879 .1882 .1889 .1901 .6352 .6364 .6389 .6430

.004049 .1292

.006139 .02787

.0004233 1.6664

.3079 .0006483

Tues. 1.0012

.7902 .09101 2.6525 .03105

.9615 1.6946 1.6935 1.6910 1.6867

.7370

.7386

.7413

.7450 .002356

.1201 .0009985

.... .03677

.1677 ....

.0002787 .2135 .1893 .1896 .1903 .1914 .6394 .6407 .6432 .6472

.004068 .1292

.006164 .02786

.0004233 1.6714

.3085 .0006510

Wed. .9988

1.2812 11.058 .3770

32.470 1.0409 .5924 .5928 .5937

.5952 1.3516 1.3488 1.3437 1.3370 425.25 8.3272

1001.50 ....

27.307 6.0118

.... 3615.00

4.7150 5.3220 5.3126 5.2935 5.2617 1.5744 1.5714 1.5652 1.5552 246.98 7.7390 162.89 35.875

2362.15 .6001

3.2474 1542.50

Tues. .9988

1.2655 10.988

.3770 32.205 1.0401

.5901

.5905

.5914

.5929 1.3568 1.3539 1.3489 1.3422 424.40 8.3276

1001.50 ....

27.194 5.9633

.... 3587.50

4.6841 5.2838 5.2741 5.2558 5.2243 1.5639 1.5607 1.5547 1.5450 245.80 7.7390 162.23 35.890

2362.63 .5983

3.2412 1536.00

U.S. $ equiv. per U.S. $Currency

Country Japan (Yen) 30-Day Forward 90-Day Forward 180-Day Forward Jordan (Dinar) Kuwait (Dinar) Lebanon (Pound) Malaysia (Ringgit) Malta (Lira) Mexico (Peso) Floating rate Netherland (Guilder) New Zealand (Dollar) Norway (Krone) Pakistan (Rupee) Peru (new Sol) Philippines (Peso) Poland (Zloty) Portugal (Escudo) Russia (Ruble) (a) Saudi Arabia (Riyal) Singapore (Dollar) Slovak Rep. (Koruna) South Africa (Rand) South Korea (Won) Spain (Peseta) Sweden (Krona) Switzerland (Franc) 30-Day Forward 90-Day Forward 180-Day Forward Taiwan (Dollar) Thailand (Baht) Turkey (Lira) United Arab (Dirham) Uruguay (New Peso) Financial Venezuela (Bolivar) SDR ECU

Wed. .008639 .008676 .008750 .008865

1.4075 3.3367

.0006445 .4018

2.7624 ....

.1278

.5655

.7072

.1540 .02529

.3814 .03800

.3460 .006307

.0001787 .2666 .7116

.03259 .2141

.001184

.007546 .1431 .7334 .7357 .7401 .7470

.03638

.03902 .00000911

.2723 ....

.1145 .002098

- - - 1.4315 1.2308

Tues. .008681 .008718 .008791 .008907

1.4075 3.3389

.0006445 .4002

2.7701 ....

.1277

.5699

.7106

.1548 .02529

.3840 .03802

.3475 .006369

.0001788 .2667 .7124

.03259 .2142

.001184

.007603 .1435 .7387 .7411 .7454 .7523

.03637

.03906 .00000915

.2723 ....

.1145 .002096

1.4326 1.2404

Wed. 115.75 115.26 114.28 112.80

.7105

.2997 1551.50

2.4885 .3620

.... 7.8220 1.7685 1.4140 6.4926 39.540 2.6218 26.318 2.8900 158.55

5595.00 3.7503 1.4053 30.688 4.6705 844.75 132.52 6.9865 1.3635 1.3593 1.3511 1.3386 27.489 25.625

109755.00 3.6720

.... 8.7300 476.70

.6986

..........

Tues. 115.20 114.71 113.76 112.28

.7105

.2995 1551.50

2.4990 .3610

.... 7.8330 1.7547 1.4073 6.4599 39.540 2.6039 26.300 2.8780 157.02

5594.00 3.7502 1.4037 30.688 4.6690 844.65 131.53 6.9697 1.3537 1.3494 1.3416 1.3293 27.493 25.605

109235.00 3.6720

.... 8.7300 477.12

.6980

...........

U.S. $ equiv.Currencyper U.S. $Wednesday, January 8, 1997 US dollar price:

S($/£)=1.6880£1 costs $1.6880

UK pound price:S(£/$)=0.5924$1 costs £0.5924

£/$)(1£)/($

thatnote And

SS

The Spot Market

17

• The current exchange, S($/€)=1.5000. In 1 month, it is S(€/$)=0.6689– Has the US dollar appreciated or depreciated?– By what % has the exchange rate changed?

• Convert S(€/$)=0.6689 to: 1/S(€/$)=S($/€)=1.4950.– Now we see that the exchange rate has decreased US dollar has

appreciated.– The % change per month is:

%33.01.5000

1.5000-1.4950

The Spot Market

18

• The exchange rate between 2 currencies where neither currency is the US dollar

• We know the dollar rates. What if we want to know other rates, i.e. S(€/£) ? – Calculate cross-rates from dollar rates– S($/€)=1.5000 and S($/£)=2.0000. What is S(€/£), i.e. the € price

of £?

1.3333 £)/(£13333.10000.2

5000.11

£$

$£

S

Cross Exchange Rates

19

MENGGUNAKAN PIHAK LUAR (OUTSOURCING)

FAKTOR ARUS PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL

• INFLASI• PENDAPATAN NASIONAL• BATASAN NEGARA• KURS MATA UANG

MEMPERBAIKI DEFISIT PERDAGANGAN

ORGANISASI KEUANGAN INTERNASIONAL

• IMF• WORLD BANK• WTO