Copyright © 2013 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin

Analisis Operasi Rantai Pasokan

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• Metodologi perencanaan • Tahap 1: Difinisi masalah

dan perencanaan • Tahap 2: Pengumpulam

dan analisis data • Tahap 3: Rekomendasi

dan implementasi • Teknik dan analisis rantai

pasokan

Gambaran tentang jejaring dan perencanaan operasi

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• Keputusan sering membutuhkan analisisdata yang kompleks dan intensif – Kompleks karena:

• Banyak faktor yang mempengaruhi biaya total • Tersedianya sejumlah alternatif solusi

– Intensif karena: • Banyak informasi yang dituhkan untuk mengevaluasi setiap

alternatif – Misal: alternatif layanan, alternatif asumsi biaya, alternatif teknologi

Metodoogi perencanaan memberikan kemampuan untuk mengevaluasi sejumlah alternatif untuk

menanggapi perilaku pelanggan

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Metodologi perencanaan

• Difinisi masalah dan

perencanaan

• Pengumpulan dan analisis data

• Rekomendasi dan implementasi

Figure 13.1 Research Process

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Difinisi masalah dan perencanaan menjadi landasan untuk tahap berikutnya

Asesmen kelayakan • Analisis situasi saat ini • Pengembangan logika yang mendukung • Estimasi biaya dan manfaat Perencanaan proyek • Penetapan tujuan dari perubahan • Penetapan hambatan dari studi kelayakan • Menentukan standar peengukuran • Memilih teknik analisis • Membuat rencana kerja proyek

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• Membutuhkan – Mengkaji operasi

internal – Asesmen Pasar – Asesmen teknologi

• Analisis situasi harus dapat menentukan kapabilitas yang dimiliki saaat ini untuk membantu menentukan potensi perbaikan di masa datang

Analsis Situasi Saat ini

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• Mengidentifikasi proposisi nilai untuk membenarkan investasi dalam penelitian dan analisis rinci

• Evaluasi berdasarkan fakta kritis prosedur dan praktek saat ini – Apa yang sudah baik? – Area mana yang bisa ditingkatkan?

• Identifikasi alternatif potensial – Mendefinisikan operasi saat ini – Mengidentifikasi desain alternatif – Menyarankan pendekatan inovatif

Pengembangan logika yang mendukung integrasi temuan dari analisis situasi saat ini

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• Manfaat harus diestimasi dari: – Perbaikan layanan – Pengurangan biaya – Biaya pencegahan

Mengestimasi biaya dan manfaat proyek

Illustration of sample risks defined for each alternative

2 global data centers in US

RY – Close WHS – Upgrade(Test/DR)

WP – Close New site(Prod/Dev)

RY – Keep(Dev)

WHS – Upgrade(Prod/Dev)

WP – Upgrade(Test/DR)

WHS – Expand(Prod)

Expand Site and Enhance Existing

Facilities

3 global data centers in US

RY – Close WHS – Upgrade(Test/DR)

WP – Keep(Dev)

New site(Prod)

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22

33

Risks• Collocated with two hazardous material sites (RY and WP)• Facility issues with RY (leaking roof)• RY data center in flight path for Linden/EWR airport• Limited expansion possibilities• High operational complexity drives down service quality• Sub-optimal DR• Concentrated proximity to Manhattan and Philadelphia• Same power grid for all sites

Risks• Collocated with two hazardous material sites (RY and WP)• Facility issues with RY (leaking roof)• RY data center in flight path for Linden/EWR airport• Limited expansion possibilities• High operational complexity drives down service quality• Sub-optimal DR• Concentrated proximity to Manhattan and Philadelphia• Same power grid for all sites

Risks• Disruption, transition and change management (some people

issues)• Network impact (mitigated by deliberate design)

Risks• Disruption, transition and change management (some people

issues)• Network impact (mitigated by deliberate design)

Risks• Collocated with one hazardous material site (WP)• Disruption, transition and change management (less than

alternative 2)• Network impact (mitigated by deliberate design)

Risks• Collocated with one hazardous material site (WP)• Disruption, transition and change management (less than

alternative 2)• Network impact (mitigated by deliberate design)

High

Low

Medium

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• Tujuan perubahan yang diusulkan

• Kendala untuk lingkup studi

• Menetapkan standar pengukuran

• Pilih teknik analisis • Buat rencana kerja proyek

Perencanaan proyek melibatakan beberapa tugas spesifik

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• Harus mendefinisikan segmen pasar, kerangka waktu untuk perubahan dan harapan kinerja yang spesifik

• Contoh: – Menyediakan 100 pelanggan yang paling

menguntungkan dengan kinerja sempurna pada semua pesanan

– Semua pelanggan lainnya menerima • Ketersediaan persediaan 99% untuk produk kategori A • Ketersediaan persediaan 95% untuk produk kategori B • 98% pengiriman dari semua pesanan sampai dalam

waktu 48

Pernyataan tujuan harus dinyatakan secara spesifik dan terukur

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• Standar harus cukup mencerminkan total kinerja

• Daftar asumsi yang mendukung standa

• Bagaimana setiap komponen biaya harus diukur?

Standar pengukuran langsung analisis dengan asumsi biaya dan kinerja

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Mengembangkan rencana kerja proyek

• Skedul tugas • Sumber daya yang

dibutuhkan – Tenaga kerja – Pengumpukan dan

analisis data – Analisis alat

• Skedul pertemuan – Memperbaharu informasi

tahapa yang sudah diselesaikan

Update 2 to ISLT(12 Aug)

Update 1 to ISLT

Final Case(29 Aug)

14 Jul 21 Jul 28 Jul 4 Aug 11 Aug 18 Aug 25 Aug7 Jul30 Jun23 Jun

Data Center Data Center Facilities Facilities

Requirements Requirements ProjectProject

Sep

Final documents

(9 Sep)

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Pengumpulan dan Analisis Data Asumsi pengumpulan data • Mendefinisikan pendekatan analisis dan memiilih teknik • Mendefinisikan dan meninjau asumsi • Mengidentifikasi sumber data • Mengumpulkan data • memvalidasi data Analisis • Mengembangkan pertanyaan untuk analisis • Memvalidasi analisis dasar • Menganalisis setiap alternatif • Analisis sensitivitas lengkap

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• Kondisi bisnis

• Manajemen

• Analisis

Mendifinisikan dan mengkaji asumsi

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• What are the sources for – Sales and customer

orders? – Specific customer data that

includes a spatial dimension?

– Manufacturing and purchasing costs?

– Transportation data? – Benchmarking data on

competitive capabilities and flow?

Identify data sources to fit the analytical technique

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• First, develop questions about alternatives and the range of acceptable uncertainty

• Second, validate the technique and model using validation data

• Third, repeat the analysis for each alternative to be evaluated

• Finally, the best-performing alternatives can be evaluated for sensitivity to other factors or scenarios

Analysis involves use of technique and data to evaluate logistics alternatives

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Recommendations and implementation

Development of recommendations • Identify best alternative • Estimate costs and benefits • Develop risk appraisal • Develop presentation

Implementation • Define implementation plan • Schedule implementation • Define acceptance criteria • Implement

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• Identify best alternative • Estimate costs and

benefits • Develop risk appraisal • Develop presentation

Recommendations to management are developed through critical review of the analysis results

Fit to Principles

Slow Fast

High

Low

Speed to Execute

$95MM

Expand & Enhance Existing - Build

$95MM

Expand & Enhance Existing - Build

$76MM

Expand & Enhance Existing –Build & Outsource DR

$76MM

Expand & Enhance Existing –Build & Outsource DR

2 Data Centers – Co-locate & Outsource DR2 Data Centers – Co-locate & Outsource DR

3 Data Centers -Build

$115MM

3 Data Centers -Build

$115MM

3 Data Centers – Build & Outsource DR

$91MM

3 Data Centers – Build & Outsource DR

$91MM

2 Data Centers - Build

$133MM

2 Data Centers - Build

$133MM

2 Data Centers – Build & Outsource DR

$114MM

2 Data Centers – Build & Outsource DR

$114MM

3 Data Centers -Acquire

$49MM

3 Data Centers -Acquire

$49MM

$49MM

2 Data Centers -Acquire

$49MM

2 Data Centers -Acquire

Preferred Alternatives

3 Data Centers – Co-locate & Outsource DR3 Data Centers – Co-locate & Outsource DR

Sample presentation visual showing best alternative

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• Define implementation plan – Events, activities and decisions

with dependent relationships • Schedule implementation

– Timeline of plan details – E.g. acquire facilities, negotiate

agreements, mobilize teams, and conduct training

• Define acceptance criteria – How will we measure success?

• Implement the recommendation – Establish controls to monitor

plan and acceptance criteria

Implementation is necessary to realize any business benefits from the recommendations

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• Design decisions • Design logic • Inventory decisions • Transportation decisions • Freight lane analysis • Inventory analysis

Methods and techniques of analysis for supply chain decisions

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Design decisions focus on selecting number and location of plants, warehouses and other nodes

• Determine total costs and trade-offs for alternative channel strategies, activity outsourcing or offshoring decisions

• Typical questions include – Where should plants and distribution

centers be located? – Which market areas should be served

by each distribution center? – Which product line should be stocked

at each warehouse? – What marketing channels should be

used to serve international markets? – Which service providers should be

used for long-term contracts?

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• Optimization models consider a range of complex data to evaluate alternatives – Aggregate customer demand – Aggregate supply availability – Product and information flows at each stage – Transportation alternatives and costs – Other variable costs

• Major problems with linear programming – Need explicit functional relationships for full range of design options – Only as valid as the design problem definition – Often limited by number of stages in the supply chain and problem size

Design logic defines the method used to select from a number of available options

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Illustration of scope of typical supply chain analysis

Figure 13.2 Total Cost Analysis Approach

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• Markets defined by geographic segments

• Products defined by the number of stock keeping units required

• Network defines channel members and locations including current and proposed

• Customer demand as shipment volume by market geography

• Transportation rates for inbound and outbound volume

– For each shipment size – For each potential transportation link

• Variable and fixed costs • Tax incentives

Data requirements for supply chain analysis include the following key elements

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Illustration of how the US might be segmented in market areas

Figure 13.3 Supply Chain Network

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Illustration of a network definition for channel of industrial and retail customers

Figure 13.4 Channel Network Example

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• Baseline analysis is done first to validate cost and establish credibility of the analysis

• Other alternatives are modeled and analyzed

• Results can be compared to baseline to identify performance improvements

Evaluation of alternatives

Baseline Model

Alternative Models

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Illustration of baseline network with two plants and two warehouses

Figure 13.5 Base Supply Chain Network

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Illustrates an alternative supply chain with 3 plants and 4 warehouses

Figure 13.6 Alternative Supply Chain Network

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• Treatment of inventory carrying cost

• Assumptions of shipment sizes over range of alternatives – Constant or varies with change in

number of warehouses • Focus of analyses

– Expanding boundaries of supply chain members

– Minimize total cost vs. maximize profit

– Periodic vs. ongoing

Concerns of supply chain design tools

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Illustration of the analytic inventory concept to make inventory decisions

Figure 13.7 Analytic Inventory Overview Results of analysis

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Illustration of the simulation approach to inventory analysis

Figure 13.8 Inventory Simulation Overview

Results of analysis

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• Strategic routing decisions – Identify long-term fixed transport

modes • Monthly or yearly routes

• Tactical routing decisions – Allocate resources for the short-

term • Daily or weekly routes

• Objective is to minimize the combination of vehicles, hours and miles required to deliver product

Transportation decisions range from strategic to tactical in scope

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Illustration of typical transportation problem

Figure 13.9 Typical Routing or Delivery Problem

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Transportation analysis techniques • Heuristic approaches

– Use rule-of-thumb techniques to sequentially add and delete stops

• Exact approaches – Use linear programming to

identify best routes • Interactive approaches

– Use simulation, cost calculator or graphics capability to support interactive decision process

• Combination approaches – Blend of the three approaches is

very effective

• Criteria for evaluating approaches – How general is the

approach? • E.g. special situations,

multiple depots, time windows, vehicle capacities

– How accurate is the approach?

• Is it a close approximation of performance characteristics?

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• Network defines all possible routes

• Demand data defines periodic customer pickup and delivery requirements

• Operating characteristics define – Number of vehicles – Vehicle limitations – Driver constraints – Operating costs

Data requirements for transportation analysis