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L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 1

LAPORAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER

Triwulan III 2013

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L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 3

L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 4

L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 5

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

ISM Manufacture

ISM Services

Index

Source: Bloomberg

exp

an

din

gco

ntr

acti

ng

Date Sept 2013

ISM Manufaktur

ISM Jasa-Jasa

Sumber: Bloomberg

kon

trak

si

eksp

an

si

Data Sept 2013

Data Sept 2013

Sumber: Bloomberg

Keyakinan konsumen ke depan

Keyakinan konsumen saat ini

Indeks Indeks

Sumber: Bloomberg

PMI Komposit

PMI Non Manufaktur

PMI Manufaktur

Data Sept 2013

> 50 : Ekspansi < 50 : Kontraksi

Indeks, 50 : netral

Sumber: Bloomberg Data Sept 2013

PMI < 50 : kontraksi

PMI > 50 : ekspansi

Indeks, PMI = 50 : netral

L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 6

Data Sept 2013

Sumber: Bloomberg

Indeks Indeks

Data Ags 2013

Sumber: Bloomberg

Indeks

Produksi Industri PMI Manufaktur (sk. Kanan)

L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 7

Sumber: Bloomberg

L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 8

L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 9

L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 10

L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 11

L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 12

L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 13

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13

Trade Balance Non Oil and Gas

Trade Balance Oil and Gas

Trade Balance Total

US$ MSaham

Neraca Perdagangan Nonmigas

Neraca Perdagangan Migas

Neraca Perdagangan

L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 14

IDR/USD harian Rata-rata bulanan Rata-rata triwulan

Rata-rata

L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 15

L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 16

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Jan

-08

Ma

y-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Jan

-09

Ma

y-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Jan

-10

Ma

y-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Jan

-11

Ma

y-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Jan

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Jan

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Nilai Tukar (dep (+)/apr (-), %, yoy)

Indeks Harga Impor (proksi Imported Inflation, % YOY) *)

Inflasi Core Traded (%, yoy), RHS

*) Indeks komposit harga global dengan weigted average (berdasar prosentase impor dan bobot di IHK) dari komoditas pangan (CPO, gandum, gula, jagung dan kedelai) , minyak dunia (WTI), emas, kapas, dan besi.

60

65

70

75

80

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

% Kapasitas Produksi Terpakai Industri Pengolahan (SKDU)

L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 17

80

100

120

140

160

180

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan

-02

Jul-

02

Jan

-03

Jul-

03

Jan

-04

Jul-

04

Jan

-05

Jul-

05

Jan

-06

Jul-

06

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Indeks%,yoy

Administered Prices

Ekspektasi Inflasi (SPE 3 bln), RHS

Ekspektasi Inflasi SPE 6 bln, RHS

Ekspektasi ↑ sebelum kebijakan diberlakukan

Sumber: Eurostat, Bloomberg

Inf ≤ 6,80%

8,00% < inf ≤ 8,50%

Inf > 8,50%

6,80% < inf ≤ 8,00%

L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 18

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jan

-10

Ap

r-1

0

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-1

1

Jul-

11

Oct

-11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-1

2

Jul-

12

Oct

-12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Jul-

13

rPUAB O/N rLending rate

rDF O/N rBI Rate

% %

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Okt-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13

Vol DF O/N (RHS) Vol PUAB O/N (RHS)

rBI Rate rPUAB O/N

rDF O/N

Rp T%

Avg Vol DF: Rp 114.2 TRRT Vol PUAB : Rp 10.1 T

rPUAB : 5.05%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

5

7

9

11

13

15

Jan

-05

Jul-

05

Jan

-06

Jul-

06

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Spread-rhs Sb Kredit Sb Dep 1 bln BI rate Sb LPS

%

Selisih rKredit - rDepo1: 586bps

%

6.19

12.05

11

.49

11

.29

13

.40

12

.11

11

.45

11

.27

13

.22

12

.02

11

.44

11

.24

13

.28

12

.03

11

.44

11

.21

13

.22

12

.00

11

.46

11

.17

13

.20

11

.99

11

.41

11

.14

13

.14

11

.93

11

.66

11

.29

13

.06

12

.05

11

.63

11

.37

13

.05

12

.05

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

Sb KMK Sb KI Sb KK RRT

Jan-13 Feb-13

Mar-13 Apr-13

May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13 Aug-13

%

L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 19

-

5

10

15

20

25

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan

-10

Ap

r-1

0

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-1

1

Jul-

11

Oct

-11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-1

2

Jul-

12

Oct

-12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Jul-

13

DPK (RHS) Giro (Pangsa 23.9%)

Tab (Pangsa: 31.9%) Depo (Pangsa 44.2%)%, yoy

Per Agst 2013

-

5

10

15

20

25

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan

-10

Ap

r-1

0

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-1

1

Jul-

11

Oct

-11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-1

2

Jul-

12

Oct

-12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Jul-

13

DPK (%, yoy) RHS Giro (Pangsa 23.9%)

Tab (Pangsa: 31.9%) Depo (Pangsa 44.2%)

Kontribusi Pertumbuhan (%)

Per Agst 2013

%yoy

L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 20

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Jan

-07

Ma

y-0

7

Se

p-0

7

Jan

-08

Ma

y-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Jan

-09

Ma

y-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Jan

-10

Ma

y-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Jan

-11

Ma

y-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Jan

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Jan

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Se

p-1

3

JCI BI RATE

-10,4%

2,4%

-4,7%

-4,2%

-0,3%

0,6%

9,9%

9,9%

-0,1%

4,0%

5,7%

1,5%

4,1%

5,8%

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Indonesia (IHSG)

Vietnam

Thailand (SET)

Philippine

Kuala Lumpur (KLCI)

Strait Times (STI)

Shanghai (SHCOMP)

Hong Kong (Hang Seng)

India (SENSEX)

England (FTSE)

Japan (Nikkei)

US (Dow Jones)

EM ASIA

World

IHSG

L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 21

(25,0)

(20,0)

(15,0)

(10,0)

(5,0)

-

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

Ma

r-0

8

Jun

-08

Se

p-0

8

De

c-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Jun

-09

Se

p-0

9

De

c-0

9

Ma

r-1

0

Jun

-10

Se

p-1

0

De

c-1

0

Ma

r-1

1

Jun

-11

Se

p-1

1

De

c-1

1

Ma

r-1

2

Jun

-12

Se

p-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ma

r-1

3

Jun

-13

Se

p-1

3

Net Beli/Jual (RHS) IHSG

-10,4%

-8,6%

0,8%

-7,8%

-19,8%

-6,9%

-9,9%

-11,8%

-13,8%

-20,5%

-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%

IHSG

Infrastructure

Mining

Finance

Basic Industry

Misc. Industry

Consumption

Trade

Agriculture

Property

Quarterly Changes

Properti

Pertanian

Perdagangan

Konsumsi

Aneka Industri

Industri Dasar

Keuangan

Pertambangan

Infrastruktur

IHSG

L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 22

0,0

20,0

40,0

60,0

80,0

100,0

120,0

140,0

160,0

6,00

6,50

7,00

7,50

8,00

8,50

9,00

9,50

10,00

10,50

11,00

1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 30Y

Spread (bps) - RHS 30-Jun-13 30-Sep-13 BI RATE

Sumber: Bloomberg, data eop

%

BI RATE

bps

Indikator

Utama Sep Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Juni Juli Agt

Total Aset (T Rp) 4,009.4 4,262.6 4,211.0 4,237.1 4,313.8 4,367.8 4,418.7 4,461.8 4,510.3 4,581.1

DPK (T Rp) 3,050.0 3,225.2 3,204.5 3,207.3 3,243.1 3,299.4 3,349.7 3,374.4 3,392.9 3,440.2

Kredit * (T Rp) 2,555.9 2,707.9 2,688.1 2,718.7 2,768.4 2,824.2 2,887.5 2,959.1 3,021.1 3,067.4

LDR* (%) 83.8 84.0 83.9 84.8 85.4 85.6 86.2 87.7 89.0 89.2

NPLs Gross* (%) 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0

CAR (%) 17.4 17.4 19.2 19.2 18.9 18.6 18.4 18.0 18.0 17.9

NIM (%) 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5

ROA (%) 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

* tanpa channeling

20132012

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