1 pertemuan 20 informasi relevan dalam manajemen resiko matakuliah: j0274/akuntansi manajemen tahun:...
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Pertemuan 20Informasi Relevan Dalam Manajemen
Resiko
Matakuliah : J0274/Akuntansi Manajemen
Tahun : 2005
Versi : 01/00
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Learning Outcomes
Pada akhir pertemuan ini, diharapkan mahasiswa
akan mampu :
• Memahami pentingnya para pengambil keputusan untuk berani menghadapi ketidak pastian
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Outline Materi
• Perubahan lingkungan bisnis dan ekonomi
• Pengambilan keputusan dan balas jasa
• Pengertian ketidakpastian
• Alternatif keputusan dalam ketidakpastian
• Menjadi creative thinker
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Decision Making
Identifying alternative courses of action.Identifying alternative courses of action.
Selecting an appropriate alternative.Selecting an appropriate alternative.
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Rewards and Sacrifices
In general, the aim of all decisionsIn general, the aim of all decisionsis to obtain some type of reward,is to obtain some type of reward,
either economic or personal.either economic or personal.
Reward requires sacrifice.Reward requires sacrifice.
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Opportunity Cost
It is the reward we give up becauseIt is the reward we give up becausewe choose a particular alternativewe choose a particular alternative
instead of another.instead of another.
Examining the relationship betweenExamining the relationship betweenrewards and sacrifices is known asrewards and sacrifices is known as
cost/benefit analysiscost/benefit analysis..
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Coping with Uncertaintyand Risk
Uncertainty in any given decisionUncertainty in any given decisionsituation increases the chancessituation increases the chances
of making the wrong choice.of making the wrong choice.
The higher the degree ofThe higher the degree ofuncertainty, the greater the risk.uncertainty, the greater the risk.
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Routine and Non-routine Decisions
RoutineRoutinedecisionsdecisions
SituationSituationrecursrecurs
Non-routineNon-routinedecisionsdecisions
UnfamiliarUnfamiliarcircumstancescircumstances
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Uncertainty
One common technique for addressing the impact of uncertainty is
sensitivity analysis - a way to determine what would happen in a decision analysis if a key prediction or assumption proved to
be wrong.
One common technique for addressing the impact of uncertainty is
sensitivity analysis - a way to determine what would happen in a decision analysis if a key prediction or assumption proved to
be wrong.
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Decision Making Under Uncertainty
• Maximax
• Maximin
• Equally likely (Laplace)
• Criterion of Realism
• Minimax
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21st Century Accountants
Attributes of 21st Century accountants
CommunicationSkills
InterpersonalSkills
IntellectualSkills
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Creative Thinking
• Creative thinking is the process of actively generating new ideas to discover solutions to a problem.
Creative
Thinkers
Inquisitive Mind(questioning
attitude)
Fluency(number of ideas generated for a
solution)
Flexibility(broad array of
ideas for solving a problem)
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Creative Thinking StrategiesBrainstorming..
generating plenty of “harebrained” as well as
reasonably possible ideas
Piggybacking… generating new ideas
from other ideas
Drawing analogies… connecting facts, ideas, or experiences that are normally considered separate
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Questions for CreativeThinkers to Ask
• What is it about this idea that stimulates my curiosity?
• Can I come up with more ideas?
• Can I come up with a great variety of ideas?
• Do I develop ideas independently and not eliminate them because of social influences?
• Do I consider several alternatives before acting?
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Critical Thinking
• Critical thinking is the process that evaluates the ideas generated by creative thinking.
Critical Thinkers Have Grit!
Independent (in process of
evaluating ideas)
Objectivity(being unbiased in the
evaluation process; valuing truth)
Tolerate Ambiguity/Willingly
Defer Judgment(to collect information
and evaluate solutions)
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Questions for CriticalThinkers to Ask
• If an issue is controversial, do I accept my first
reaction or do I debate the issue in my head
first?
• Do I tend to reject new evidence that
contradicts my current opinion on the subject,
or do I evaluate the new evidence and then
decide whether to accept it or reject it?
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Questions for CriticalThinkers to Ask
• When I am trying to solve a problem, do I
usually accept the first solution that “works” or
do I generate multiple solutions and then
choose the best one?
• When others disagree with me, do I usually
listen to them with an open mind and critically
evaluate their ideas, or do I try or defend my
own ideas?
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Critical Thinking and Logic
• Critical thinkers use a variety of skills in the problem-solving process. Among these skills is the ability to use logic.
LOGIC
Inductive logic Reasoning that moves from a specific conclusion to a general statement.
Reasoning that moves from a
general statement to a specific
conclusion. Deductive logic