masalah dan pengelolaan resiko sebagai komponen dan model

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Masalah dan Pengelolaan Resiko sebagai Komponen dan Model dalam sistem Pertanian Berkelanjutan

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outline

Resiko sebagai Faktor Inherent dalam Bidang Pertanian-Kehutanan

Sumber-sumber Resiko di Bidang Pertanian-Kehutanan

Perhitungan Resiko secara Statistik

Pengelolaan Resiko dalam Bidang Pertanian-Kehutanan

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Resiko sebagai faktor inherent dalam bidang pertanian-kehutanan

Risk, Uncertainty, and Vulnerability

A common definition of risk is likelihood by consequence (Standards Australia 2004).

Risk has been defined as the expected loss due to a particular hazard for a given area and reference period.

Risk is a quantity derived both from the probability that a particular hazard will occur and the magnitude of the consequence of the undesirable effects of that hazard. The term risk is often used informally to mean the probability of a hazard occurring.

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Uncertainty concerning outcomes that involve some adversity or loss that negatively affects individual well-being is normally associated with the idea of risk.

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Knight (1921) membedakan resiko (Risk) dg ketidakpastian (Uncertainty).

Risk : implies knowledge of numerical, objective probability.

Uncertainty : implies uncertain and the probabilities are not known.

Perbedaan ini kurang operasional krn probabilities sangat jarang yg dpt diketahui dan ada banyak anggapan ttg probabilities sbg keyakinan yg subjective (Just 2001; Moschini and Hennessy 2001).

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Hardaker et al (2004) membedakan resiko (Risk) dg ketidakpastian (Uncertainty). Risk as exposure to uncertain unfavourable economic consequences. Uncertainty as imperfect knowledge.

Dlm prakteknya sering keduanya dipakai bergantian.

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A significant part of the literature on risk management is associated with social protection against poverty, particularly in developing countries (Dercon, 2005 and World Bank, 2000).

In this context the term vulnerability is often used to define the likelihood that a risk will result in a significant decline in well-being, that is, resilience or lack of resilience against a given adversity. Vulnerability does not depend only on the characteristics of the risk, but also on the households asset endowment and availability of insurance mechanisms.

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Newbery and Stiglilt (1981):

Resiko sistematik

Resiko non sistematik.

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OECD (2000) :

Resiko yg biasa dihadapi dlm seluruh bisnis (situasi keluarga, kesehatan, kecelakaan personal, resiko makroekonomi, etc)

Resiko yg mempengaruhi pertanian dan secara khusus mempengaruhi produksi (kondisi cuaca, hama, penyakit, perubahan teknologi), ekologi (produksi tanaman, perubahan iklim, manajemen sumberdaya alam misalnya air), pasar (variasi harga input dan output, hubungan antara rantai makanan dg kualitas, keselamatan, produk baru, etc), regulatory or institutional risk (kebijakan pertanian, keamanan makanan, dan peraturan lingkungan).

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Huirne et al (2000) and Hardaker et al (2004) :

Resiko Bisnis (production, market, institutional, and personal)

Resiko Finansial (depend on financial method).

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Baquet et al (1997) and Musser and Patrick (2001) :

Resiko Produksi (variations in crop yields and in livestock production due to weather conditions, diseases and pests),

Resiko Pemasaran (the variations in commodity prices and quantities that can be marketed),

Resiko Finansial (the ability to pay bills when due, to have money to continue farming and to avoid bankruptcy),

Resiko legal dan lingkungan (lawsuits initiated by other businesses or individuals and changes in government regulation related to environment and farming practices),

Resiko Sumberdaya Manusia (the possibility that family or employees will not be available to provide labour or management),

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Moschini and Henessy (2001) :

ketidakpastian produksi,

ketidakpastian harga,

ketidakpastian teknologi,

ketidakpastian kebijakan.

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The World Bank (2000) and Holzmann and Jorgensen (2001) classify risks in six different types:

natural,

health,

social,

economic,

political

environmental.

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They also cross this typology with an additional dimension of systemic characteristics of different risks:

Micro or idiosyncratic risk that affects the individual,

Meso-risk affecting a whole community, and

Macro or systemic risk affecting a whole region or country.

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All the risks they mention affect farmers in some way, particularly natural (rainfall, landslides, floods, droughts...), health (animal and plant) and environmental risks.

Furthermore, most of these risks eventually take the form of economic risk that affects the stream of income, consumption and wealth.

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Menggunakan Probabilitas

Classical Probability P(E) = m/N

Kemunginan (P) bahwa suatu kejadian (E) akan terjadi, di mana m adlh frekuensi terjadinya E dan N adlh frekuensi akan terjadinya E

Probabilitas gabungan : P (A+B)

Probabilitas terkondisi : P (A/B)

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Hasil tes diagnostik standar dan diagnostik eksperimental terhadap serangan hama pada pohon kopi diketahui sbb:

Probabilitas: yg hasil tesnya + dari seluruh sampel? Yg dinyatakan bebas penyakit? Yg dinyatakan sakit dari mereka yg hasil tesnya +?
Penyakit +Penyakit -TotalHasil tes +7411Hasil tes -38689Total1090100
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Distribusi Probabilitas

Distribusi Binomial

Distribusi Poisson

Distribusi Probabilitas Kontinyu

Distribusi Normal

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Pohon keputusan :

Diketahui kemungkinan ada gas sebesar 60%
S1: Tidak ada gas di tanahnyaS2: Ada gas di tanahnyaD1: Menerima tawaran perusahaan energi60660D2: Mengeksplorasi dan mengembangkan sendiri-1002000
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Pohon keputusan :

0,4

S1

S2

S1

0,6

0,4

S2

0,6

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

60

660

-100

2000

1160

420

1160

D2

D1

x

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Teori pengambilan keputusan :

Pesimis

Optimis
KesebelasanTim Penilai 1Tim Penilai 2Tim Penilai 3MinimaksJerman707389227227Inggris100181679100Spanyol509819389389KesebelasanTim Penilai 1Tim Penilai 2Tim Penilai 3MinimaksJerman707389227707Inggris100181679679Spanyol509819389819
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Minimaks regreat

Tabel regreat
KesebelasanTim penilai 1Tim penilai 2Tim penilai 3Jerman707389227Inggris100181679Spanyol509819389KesebelasanTim penilai 1Tim penilai 2Tim penilai 3Jerman0430452Inggris6076380Spanyol1980290
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Huwrich dg alpha 0,7

Rasional/Laplace
KesebelasanTim penilai 1Tim penilai 2Tim penilai 3VWJerman707389227563Inggris100181679505,3Spanyol509819389690KesebelasanTim penilai 1Tim penilai 2Tim penilai 3Rata-rataJerman707389227441Inggris100181679320Spanyol509819389572,33
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Dengan menggunakan regresi:

Model sederhana utk mendeskripsikan perkembangan populasi oleh Burgman et al (1993),

Nt = jml populasi pd waktu t

b = tingkat kelahiran

d = tingkat kematian

r = tingkat pertumbuhan

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Avoidance

Reduction

Assumption/retention

Transfer

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Holzmann and Jogersen (2001) :

Prevention strategies to reduce the probability of an adverse event occurring, and focus on income smoothing.

Mitigation strategies to reduce the potential impact of an adverse event, and focus on income smoothing.

Coping strategies to relieve the impact of the risky event once it has occurred, and focus on consumption smoothing.

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masalah dan pengelolaan resiko sebagai komponen dan model

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