entry barries investasi infrastruktur kpbu sektor pekerjaan umum

30/10/2016

Sapri Pamulu, Ph.D. 1

Sapri Pamulu, Ph.D

Studi Kasus KPBU Infrastruktur PU

Entry Barriers

Workshop Kajian Entry Barriers Pasar Infrastruktur di Indonesia bagi Investor NasionalHotel Grand Kemang, Jakarta, 04 Oktober 2016

2–2

Today’s Agenda

• Industry Analysis in Brief

• Introduction to Entry Barriers

• Barriers to Entry PPP Market

• Empirical Study AnalysisAnalysis & Results

Discussion of Result

• Competitor Analysis (Tbk. Investment Capacity)

• Wrap-up

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2–3

Industry Analysis in Brief

2–4

Industry Environment Analysis

• Industry environment: The set of factors directly influencing a firm and its competitive actions and competitive responses

Threat of new entrants (Barriers to Entry)

Power of suppliers

Power of buyers

Threat of product substitutes

Intensity of rivalry among competitors

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2–5

Porter’s Five Forces

2–6

Low entry barriers

Interpreting Industry Analyses

UnattractiveIndustry

Suppliers and buyers have strong positions

Strong threats from substitute products

Intense rivalry among competitors

Low profit potential

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2–7

Interpreting Industry Analyses

AttractiveIndustry

High entry barriers

Suppliers and buyers have weak positions

Few threats from substitute products

Moderate rivalry among competitors High profit potential

2–8

Intoduction to Entry Barriers

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2–9

Three Types of Entry Barriers

1) General Structural barriers (or Innocent Barriers) – due to differences in production costs and being in the market for some time environment Economies of scale (e.g. Natural monopoly)

Vertical integration (e.g. Backwards and forwards)

Control of essential resources e.g. technologies / commodities

Expertise and reputation of the incumbent

Brand loyalty

Inherent suspicion among consumers about new ideas

2–10

Three Types of Entry Barriers

2) Strategic barriers Predatory pricing / limit pricing

Marketing / product differentiation

3) Statutory (legal) barriers - entry barriers given force of law Licences (e.g. Professional qualifications)

Patents

Copyrights

Public franchises

Tariffs, quotas and other trade restrictions

This is industry-specific, not firm-specific

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2–11

Mapping The Entry Barriers

2–12

Barriers to Entry PPP Market

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2–13

Barriers to PPPs (UNESCAP, 2012)

2–14

Barriers to PPPs (UNESCAP, 2012)

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2–15

Barriers to Entry PPP Infrastructures

Code Entry Barriers References (Papers Based) EB1 Government involvement in underwriting Ke et al. 2009 ; Zhang 2005

EB2 Lack of work experience and work ability of ppp infrastructure Ezulike et al., 1997 ; Jane and Laughin , 2003; UNESCAP, 2012

EB3 Excessive restriction in the project Akintoye et al., 2005 ; Zhang, 2005

EB4 High participation costs Ezulike et al., 1997; Tiong and Anderson, 2003 ; Devalance , 2012

EB5 High risk when relying on the private sector Ezulike et al., 1997; Akintoye et al., 2005 ;

EB6 Delay due to political debates (eg. Central vs local government) Infrastructure Journal, 2001a, b; Chan et al., 2010 ; UNESCAP, 2012

EB7 Delay due to negotiation process Ezulike et al., 1997 ; Chan et al., 2010 ; PU, 2014

EB8 Reduce accountability to the project Infrastructure Journal, 2001 b; John et al. 2006

EB9 Less employment opportunities Public Services Privatization Research Unit, 2000 N10

EB10 Long time in the preparation of contract transactions Chan et al., 2006 ; Ke et al. 2009 ; UNESCAP, 2012

EB11 High inflation Ke et al. 2009

EB12 High interest rates Ke et al. 2009 ; UNESCAP, 2012 ; Devalence, 2012; PU, 2014

EB13 Changes in act from law makers (DPR) Zhang, 2005 ; Ke et al. 2009

EB14 Public opposition (eg. Due to Land Acquisition) El-Ghohary et al., 2006 ; Ke et al. 2009 ; UNESCAP 2012; PU, 2014

Sumber: diolah (2016)

2–16

Empirical Study Analysis

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2–17

Statistical Analysis Method

2–18

Statistical Analysis of Results

Faktor Entry Barriers KodeEkonomi Suku bunga tinggi EB12Biaya Tinggi Inflasi tinggi EB11

Adanya oposisi oleh masyarakat EB14Kesempatan kerjaan yang ditawarkan lebih sedikit EB9Biaya keikutsertaan yang tinggi EB4

Kurangnya Kurang pengalaman dan kemampuan yang cukup EB2Pengalaman Adanya keterlambatan karena proses negosiasi EB7

Adanya keterlambatan karena perdebatan politik EB6Risiko tinggi bila mengandalkan swasta EB5Lamanya penyusunan kontrak transaksi EB10

Dari 14 variabel Entry Barrier, terdapat 4 variabel yaitu EB1, EB3, EB8 dan EB 13 dikeluarkan karena tidak signifikan secara statistik

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2–19

Discussion of Results (WEF, 2015)

• Policy Recommendation > Friendly InvestorsPolicy and regulatory enablers > Renegotiation risk,

Procurement process, Permitting process, Tax Policy

Investor value proposition

2–20

Discussion of Results (WEF, 2015)• Policy and regulatory enablers

Evaluate various governance and contract mechanisms to reduce political risk

Where appropriate, leverage support and available riskguarantees from multilateral development banks

Task a public-private partnership unit with improving procurement process efficiency by increasing standardization and predictability, and providing technical skills to line agencies

Review and streamline regulatory and environmental permittingprocesses and appoint a lead agency to manage and coordinate them

Ensure taxes do not systematically advantage or disadvantagecertain types of investors and are stable over time

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2–21

Discussion of Results (WEF, 2015)

• Investor value propositionAnalyse returns from an investor’s perspective and

benchmark the project’s risk-adjusted returns

Create a standard methodology and approach for risk allocation

Conduct market sounding with investors to gather feedback on the project and determine if refinements may be necessary to attract interest

2–22

Discussion of Results (PU, 2015)

• NSPK on PPP/KPBU di Sektor PU-PRUpdate NSPK base on Perpres KPBU

• Potensial List of PPP/KPBU di Sektor PU-PRBina Marga

SDA

Cipta Karya

Etc

• Potential List of EPC/Contractors that have a good Investment Ratio >1 & SGR >10%

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2–23

Regulation Analysis

PPP Related Regulation, Latest one?

2–24

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2–25


2–26

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2–27


2–28

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2–31

Next Another Permen-PUPR on Tata Cara Pelaksanaan KPBU ?

2–32

Company Analysis

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Case Study :

SOE

• ADHI

• PTPP

• WIKA

• WSKT

• HUTAMA

POE

• DGIK

• JKON

• NRCA

• SSIA

• TOTL

2–33 2–34

Wrap-up

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2–35

Wrap-up

• Industry Analysis in Brief

• Introduction to Entry Barriers

• Barriers to Entry PPP Market

• Empirical Study Analysis

• Analysis & Results

• Discussion of Result

• Competitor Analysis (Tbk. Investment Capacity)

• Questions

entry barries investasi infrastruktur kpbu sektor pekerjaan umum

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