DAFTAR ISI

Halaman

LEMBAR JUDUL

DAFTAR ISI …………………………………………………………..……... i

DAFTAR GAMBAR ………………………………………………………… iii

DAFTAR TABEL ……………………………………………………………. iv

BAB I PENDAHULUAN................................................................................. 1

1.1 Latar Belakang............................................................................................... 1

1.2 Perumusan Masalah....................................................................................... 2

1.3 Batasan Masalah............................................................................................ 2

1.4 Tujuan............................................................................................................ 3

1.5 Manfaat.......................................................................................................... 4

1.6 Metodologi Penelitian.................................................................................... 4

1.7 Sistematika Penulisan.................................................................................... 6

BAB II LANDASAN TEORI.......................................................................... 7

2.1 Peramalan....................................................................................................... 8

2.1.1. Pendefinisian Tujuan Peramalan..………………………………… 8

2.1.2. Karakteristik Peramalan Yang Baik…………............................. 8

2.1.3. Beberapa Sifat Hasil Peramalan…........……………………….... 11

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2.2 Hubungan Forecast (Peramalan) Dengan Rencana Produksi........................ 11

2.3 Proses Peramalan…………………………………………………………... 12

2.4 Metode Peramalan…………………………………………………............. 15

2.5 Metode Trend Moment…………………………………………………... 16

2.6 Rumus Rencana Produksi Bulanan………………………………………. 18

2.7 Visual Basic 6.0............................................................................................. 18

2.7.1 Sejarah Singkat Visual Basic 6.0...................................................... 19

2.7.2 Keunggulan Visual Basic 6.0........................................................... 20

2.7.3 IDE Microsoft Visual Basic 6.0........................................................ 20

BAB III ANALISA DAN PERANCANGAN SISTEM................................. 22

3.1 Identifikasi Masalah.................................................................................... 22

3.2 Analisis Permasalahan................................................................................ 23

3.3 Alur Proses Aplikasi................................................................................... 24

3.3.1 Metode Moment................................................................................. 24

3.3.2 Rumus perencanaan produksi............................................................. 29

3.4 Analisa dan Perancangan Sistem................................................................. 33

3.4.1 Data Flow Diagram............................................................................ 33

3.4.2 Context Diaram.................................................................................. 34

DAFTAR PUSTAKA ........................................................................................ 35

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DAFTAR GAMBAR

Gambar 2.1 Tampilan IDE Visual Basic 6.0 .................................................... 21

Gambar 3.1 Sistem Perencanaan produksi......................................................... 24

Gambar 3.2 Flowchart metode trend moment................................................... 25

Gambar 3.3 Flowchart Rencana Produksi....………………………………….. 26

Gambar 3.4 Context Diagram Aplikasi perencanaan produksi .. …………….. 26

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DAFTAR TABEL

Tabel 3.1. Sistem perencanaan produksi ............................................................. 27

Tabel 3.2. Peramalan Penjualan tahun 2012 ....................................................... 29

Tabel 3.3. Peramalan Penjualan tahun 2012 ....................................................... 30

Tabel 3.4. Hasil Rencana Produksi tahun 2012 .................................................. 32

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