soal dan jawaban-uas makroekonomi prodi s1 reguler 24 mei 2011_seta
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SOAL 1A – HadiSusanto
Usulan soal Makro 1 / UAS / 2011 / Hadi Susanto.
Pertanyaan:
Dalam jangka pendek, variabel utama yg mempengaruhi bussines cycle yang mengindikasikan gerakan
GDP, terutama adalah labor force.
a) Jelaskan korelasi antara Unemployment dan GDP riil, mengapa demikian. Dalam kaitan ini,
b) Arthur M Okun yang pernah mengajar di Yale University dari 1952-67 telah menciptakan “Hukum
Okun”. Berikan rumusnya, jelaskan apa yang dimaksud dan berikan contoh.
In the short-run, the main variable that influenced business cycle that indicates GDP fluctuation, is labor
force
a. Explain the correlation between unemployment and real GDP, and why it shows that
correlation.
b. In this relation, Arthur M. Okun that had been teaching at the Yale University during 1952-67
has announced “Okun’s Law”. Show the formula, explain what it means and give example.
Jawab: (sumber: Mankiw 7th ed/p.260-263; Mankiw 6th ed. Erlangga/p.248-252)
a). Dalam jangka pendek, bukan kapasitas output nasional [Y = f(K, L, T)] yang menentukan besarnya
output, melainkan jumlah angkatan kerja yang berkarya. Semakin besar bagian dari Labor force yang
bekerja, semakin kecil unemployment, semakin besar output. Jadi, korelasi antara Unemployment dan
GDP adalah negatip.
b). Pertumbuhan GDP riil (%) = a% - 2 x (perubahan pertumbuhan unemployment). Pada edisi 6, Mankiw
menyebut a% = 3,5 (dg data USA 1970-2005); pada edisi 7: a% = 3% (dg data USA 1970-2008). Saya
sarankan jawaban manapun bisa dianggap benar. Menurut Mankiw 3% atau 3,5% adalah hasil
perhitungan jika digunakan Y = f (K, L, T), atau pendekatan jangka panjang. Pada jangka pendek, jika
hanya L yg digunakan sbg explatatory Variable, harus direvisi dg: minus (2 x perubahan unemployment,
dlm %). Contoh: jika unemployment meningkat dari 5% menjadi 6,25%, maka
Growth GDP riil = 3,0% - 2 x ( 5,0% – 6,25%) = +0,50%.
SOAL 2A –Telisa AD I : BUILDING IS-LM MODEL
ENGLISH
Suppose that one country/economy have the following equations:
Goods market
𝐶 = 0.5 (1 − 𝑡) 𝑌
𝑡 = 0.2
𝐼 = 1000 − 90 𝑟
𝐺 = 800
Money market
𝑀
𝑃 𝑑
= 0.2𝑌 − 60 𝑟
Money supply= 540
Notes: 𝑟 in percent (if 𝑟= 3, it means that 𝑟 is 3 percent)
Rounding off the number to simplify calculation.
Based on the information
a. Find the equilibrium of the goods market to observe the relationship of Y and r on this market.
Draw a curve based on equilibrium in the goods market.
b. Find the equilibrium of the money market to observe the relationship of Y and r on this market.
Draw a curve based on equilibrium in the money market.
c. Find the equilibrium in goods and money markets, namely for Y * and r *
d. Draw the derivation of AD curve, if it assumed an increase in price (P)
JAWABAN
BAGIAN A
Fungsi IS: Keseimbangan di PasarBarang
𝑌 = 𝐶 + 𝐼 + 𝐺
𝑌 = 0.5(1 − 0.2)𝑌 + 1000 − 90𝑟 + 800
𝑌 = 0.5(0.8)𝑌 + 1800 − 90𝑟
𝑌 − 0.4𝑌 = 1800 − 90𝑟
0.6𝑌 = 1800 − 90𝑟
𝑌 = 3000 − 150𝑟sehinggamendapatkanYIS = f(r)kurva IS
Hasil konsisten dan reliable, karena dY/dr pada IS negative IS downward sloping
Y dan r di pasarbarangmemilikihubungannegatif
𝐘
r
𝐫
𝐈𝐒
BAGIAN B
Fungsi LM: Keseimbangan di PasarUang
(M/P) = f(r,Y) YLM = F(r)
Asumsi: karenanilai P tidakdiketahui, makapenyelesainpersamaan LM langsungmemasukkanMs
𝑀
𝑃 𝑑
= 0.2𝑌 − 60𝑟
540 = 0.2𝑌 − 60𝑟
0.2𝑌 = 540 + 60𝑟
𝑌 = 2700 + 300𝑟
Hasilkonsistendan reliable, karenadY/drpada LM positif LM upward sloping
Y dan r di pasarbarangmemilikihubunganpositif
BAGIAN C
Keseimbangan di pasaruangdanbaranguntukmenemukannilai Y* dan r*
Dimana 𝑌𝐼𝑆 = 3000 − 150𝑟
𝑌𝐿𝑀 = 2700 + 300𝑟
𝑌𝐼𝑆 = 𝑌𝐿𝑀
3000 − 150𝑟 = 2700 + 300𝑟
450𝑟 = 300
𝑟 = 0.67
Untuk mendapatkan Y, maka:
𝑌 = 2700 + 300𝑟
𝒀 𝐘
r
𝐫
LM
𝑌 = 2700 + 300(0.67)
𝑌 = 2700 + 200
𝑌 = 2900
Sehinggakeseimbangan di pasaruangdanbarang:
𝑌∗ = 2900
𝑟∗ = 0.67
BAGIAN D
Penurunankurva AD jikadiasumsikanterjadipeningkatanharga (P)
𝒀∗ = 𝟐𝟗𝟎𝟎 𝐘
r
𝐫∗ = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟕
LM
𝐈𝐒
𝑌1
𝐿𝑀0 𝑀
𝑃0
𝐿𝑀1 𝑀
𝑃1
𝑌0
𝑌
𝑟
𝑃0
𝑃1
𝑌
𝑌1
𝑌0
𝑃
SOAL 3 A - Padang English Answer the following questions based on the assumption that Indonesia is a closed economy:
a. The government of Indonesia still commits to implement expansionary fiscal policy during fiscal year of 1 April 2011-31 March 2012 despite being strongly criticized by such multilateral institutions as World Bank, Asia Development Bank, and International Monetary Fund. Consequently, how will the expansionary fiscal policy theoretically impact the equilibrium on goods and money market?
b. After being strongly criticized by parliament members and many small-medium sized entrepreneurs, eventually Bank Indonesia compromises to cut interest rate. Theoretically, what should Bank Indonesia do to accommodate those small-medium sized entrepreneurs’ demand and how will this have an effect on goods and money market equilibrium?
c. Regarding the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy, what will the central bank respond to the tax increase? And what effect will the tax increase have on the economy?
d. Theoretically, how do fiscal and monetary policies influence the AD curve?
JawabanSoal 3 A (Padang Wicaksono)
a.
An increase in government purchases
1. IS curve shifts right
S1 Reguler-Ilmu Ekonomi 2010-2011
causing output &
income to rise.
IS1Y
rLM
r1
Y1
1by
1 MPCG
IS2
Y2
r2
1.2. This raises money
demand, causing the
interest rate to rise…
2.
3. …which reduces investment,
so the final increase in Y1
is smaller than 1 MPC
G
3.
2011/5/22 5
b.
Monetary policy: An increase in M
1. M > 0 shifts the LM curve down(or to the right)
S1 Reguler-Ilmu Ekonomi 2010-2011
2. …causing the
interest rate to fall
IS
Y
rLM1
r1
Y1 Y2
r2
LM2
3. …which increases
investment, causing
output & income to
rise.
2011/5/22 7
c.
The BI’s response to G > 0
S1 Reguler-Ilmu Ekonomi 2010-20112011/5/22 9
Suppose GOI increases G.
• 1. hold M constant
• 2. hold r constant
• 3. hold Y constant
Possible BI responses:
In each case, the effects of the G
are different.
Response 1: Hold M constant
S1 Reguler-Ilmu Ekonomi 2010-2011
If GOI raises G,
the IS curve shifts right.
IS1Y
rLM1
r1
Y1
IS2
Y2
r2If BI holds M constant,
then LM curve doesn’t
shift.
Results:
2 1Y Y Y
2 1r r r
2011/5/22 10
Response 2: Hold r constant
S1 Reguler-Ilmu Ekonomi 2010-2011
If GOI raises G,
the IS curve shifts right.
IS1Y
rLM1
r1
Y1
IS2
Y2
r2To keep r constant, BI
increases M
to shift LM curve right.
3 1Y Y Y
0r
LM2
Y3
Results:
2011/5/22 11
Response 3: Hold Y constant
S1 Reguler-Ilmu Ekonomi 2010-2011
IS1Y
rLM1
r1
IS2
Y2
r2To keep Y constant,
BI reduces M
to shift LM curve left.
0Y
3 1r r r
LM2
Results:
Y1
r3
If GOI raises G,
the IS curve shifts right.
2011/5/22 12
d.
Fiscal policy and the AD curve
S1 Reguler-Ilmu Ekonomi 2010-2011
Y2
Y2
r2
Y1
Y1
r1
Y
r
Y
P
IS1
LM
AD1
P1
Expansionary fiscal
policy (G and/or T )
increases agg. demand:
T C
IS shifts right
Y at each
value
of P AD2
IS2
2011/5/22 18
Monetary policy and the AD curve
S1 Reguler-Ilmu Ekonomi 2010-2011
Y
P
IS
LM(M2/P1)
LM(M1/P1)
AD1
P1
Y1
Y1
Y2
Y2
r1
r2
The Fed can increase
aggregate demand:
M LM shifts right
AD2
Y
r
r
I
Y at each
value of P
2011/5/22 17
SOAL 4 A – Femmy English
Chapter 12 (4A)
a. Suppose that Macademia is a small open economy under a system of floating exchange rates.
Use the Mundell-Fleming model to predict what would happen to aggregate income, the
exchange rate, and the trade balance in response to a fall in consumer confidence about the
future induces consumers to spend less and save more.
b. What would happen if exchange rates were fixed rather than floating?
ANSWERS :
Chapter 12: mohonmaafakandisusulkan, karenaharus di-scan dulu (akhirnyasayabuatjawabannya
manual pakaitulisantangan, bikindiagramnyagagalterus).
SOAL 5 A – Rus’an (Chapter 13)
Mengasumsikankurvapenawaranagregatdalamjangkapendek horizontal adalahtidakrealistis.Hal
inididasarkanpadapertimbanganbahwaadaharga-harga yang tidaktetap (non-sticky) dalamjangkapendek.
a. Dengan salah satu teori tentang kurva penawaran agregat (AS), jelaskan bahwa dalam jangka
pendek kurva AS tidak berupa garis horizontal melainkan upward sloping.
b. Dengan mempergunakan kurva AS yang upward sloping, jelaskan hipotesis natural-rate yang
menyatakan bahwa fluktuasi pada permintaan agregat (AD) hanya memengaruhi tingkat
keseimbangan output dan tenaga kerja pada jangka pendek namun tidak pada jangka panjang.
Gunakan kasus shock moneter ekspansif dan jelaskan konsep money neutrality pada kasus ini.
Simplifying price stickyness and drawing the short run aggregate supply curve as horizontal line is
unrealistic. This due to consideration that some prices are non-sticky in the short run.
a. Explain using one of the theory of agregate supply to show that the short run aggregate supply
curve is upward sloping
b. Assuming that the AS curve is now upward sloping, explain the natural-rate hypothesis which
states that fluctuations in aggregate demand affect output and employment only in the short
run, not in the long run. Using the case of monetary expansionary, explain the money neutrality
concept in this case.
Jawab
5A.
a. Soal ini dapat dijelaskan dengan salah satu dari tiga teori tentang AS jika masih mempergunakan
Mankiw s.d. edisi 6 (the sticky wage model, the imperfect information model & the sticky price
model). Jika edisi 7 yang dipergunakan silakan hanya 2 teori yang dipakai pada edisi tersebut.
b. Dengan kurva AS yang upward sloping atau 𝑌 = 𝑌 + 𝛼(𝑃 − 𝑃𝑒) sebuah shock yang
menyebabkan AD berfluktuasi, misalnya ekspansi dari titik A ke titik B akan membuat tingkat
harga naik dari P1 ke P2 disertai kenaikan output dari 𝑌 ke Y3.Karena agen di perekonomian tidak
berfikir bahwa akan perubahan tingkat harga ini, maka harga ekspektasi akan masih berada di
𝑃2𝑒 = 𝑃1
𝑒 = 𝑃1. Perubahan yang mendadak pada kurva AD ini menyebabkan terjadinya ekspansi
output dalam jangka pendek (hal ini dapat dikonfirmasi dengan salah satu teori dari soal a.).
Dalam jangka panjang, tingkat ekpektasi harga berubah untuk mengikuti tingkat harga aktual.
Misalnya dari 𝑃2𝑒 ke 𝑃3
𝑒 . Dimana 𝑃2𝑒<𝑃3
𝑒 . Sesuai persamaan 𝑌 = 𝑌 + (𝑃 − 𝑃𝑒) hal ini tercermin
pada pergeseran kurva AS ke kiri atas dan menyebabkan output kembali ke tingkat semula di
titik C pada titik keseimbangan 𝑌 , 𝑃3. Kondisi keseimbangan ini mencerminkan money neutrality,
dalam jangka panjang perubahan penawaran jumlah uang beredar tidak akan mengubah
keseimbangan riil.
SOAL 6 A – Ledi
(A Dynamic Model of AD and AS)
Jawablahpertanyaanberantai di bawahinidenganmenggunakananalisis model dinamikPermintaan-
PenawaranAgregat (DAD-DAS) dandisertaidengan diagram yang relevan.
a. Seandainya sebuah perekonomian domestik pada periode sebelumnya (t – 1 ) berada pada
kondisi keseimbangan jangka panjang, apa dampak dari terjadinya kenaikan harga minyak dunia
saat ini (periode t ) pada perekonomian tersebut?
b. Saat harga minyak dunia kembali normal pada satu periode berikutnya (t + 1), apakah pada
periode tersebut tingkat output dan tingkat inflasi akan kembali ke tingkat semula? Jelaskan
bagaimana perekonomian domestik bisa kembali ke keseimbangan awalnya!
Y
P LRAS
SRAS1
1 1
eP P
AD1
AD22
eP
2P
3 3
eP P
1Y Y 2Y3Y
SRAS2
Answer the interrelated questions below using the dynamic analysis of AggregateDemand and
Aggregate Supply (DAD-DAS), and support your answer with relevant diagram.
a. If in the previous period (t – 1 ) a domestic economy was in its long run equilibrium, what is the
impact of the current (period t ) world oil price shock to the economy?
b. When the world oil price shock is over after one period (t + 1), will, at the same period, the
output level and the inflation rate of the economy return to their initial level? Explain how the
economy may return to its initial equilibrium!
JAWABAN:
a. Kenaikan harga minyak dunia adalah contoh dari supply shock, membuat variabel v dalam
persamaan DAS berubah. Akibatnya DAS bergeser ke kiri. Inflasi naik, bank sentral merespon
kenaikan inflasi dengan kenaikan suku bunga nominal yang diikuti dengan kenaikan suku bunga
riil (movementalong the curve pada DAD), sehingga tingkat output turun.
b. Saat shock berakhir, DAS bergeser ke kanan, namun pergeserannya belum bisa kembali ke level
semula karena inflasi yang lebih tinggi telah menimbulkan ekspektasi kenaikan inflasi di
masyarakat (melawan arah pergeseran DAS tadi). Setelah ekuilibrium baru menghasilkan tingkat
inflasi yang lebih rendah, barulah ekspektasi inflasi turun, dan terus turun, hingga menggeser
kurva DAS ke posisi awal.
SOAL 7A – Ninasapti
GOVERNMENT DEBT AND BUDGET DEFICIT
SOAL 7A - English
The following paragraphs are news on budget deficit and government debt:
It is seen that government will increase the amount of 2011 budget deficit that currently reached 1.8% of
GDP. So far, Government has not decided any policy to overcome international oil price fluctuation
included subsidized oil.
However, government assure that the magnitude of budget deficit will not be more than 2% of GDP.
“Maybe it will be discussed in July that government will choose to be status-quo, to limit or to increase
subsidized oil price” said Minister of Planning’s Special Staff DediMasykurRiyadi at the beginning of this
week.
(Defisit APBN 2011 BakalLebihBesar, Kontan 18 Mei 2011)
Government has financed Rp 18.7 trillion during April, so that the total cumulative central government
debt is Rp 1.697,44 trillion. RahmatWaluyanto. Director of Debt Management, explains that increasing
central government debt is due to many new debt disbursements. Thus, compared to the nominal gross
domestic bruto (GDP) that also increasing, the ratio of central government debt decline to 25.5% of the
end of 2010 position, which is 26%.
(Supriadi, Agust. UtangPemerintahNaik, Bisnis Indonesia 18 Mei 2011)
Questions:
1. Do you agree with the government’s plan to increase budget deficit as international oil price
tends to increase and its impact to raising the amount of oil subsidy in APBN, therefore it could
cause an increase in government debt? Explain your answer based on economic theory
argument that you have learned (debate between traditional view on government debt vs.
Ricardian)
2. Explain measurement problems of government debt in government budget (APBN).
Answer
1. Agree--> Traditional view: government cut taxes/increase subsidy and runs budget deficit then
consumers respond by spending more in this period--> increase current economic growth.
Disagree --> Ricardian’s view: consumers’ decision on their current consumption based on their
current and future income --> thus they do not change their current consumption (saving their
current income for future reduction in oil subsidy)
2. Measurement problems: inflation, capital assets, uncounted liabilities, business cycle
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