defisit fiskal · 2014-12-15 · kebijakan fiskal kontraktif di masa depan ... i.1 uang beredar dan...
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Sejak Krisis Asia, Indonesia selalu mengalamidefisit….
12/14/2014 M. Indra Maulana 2
1.16
-0.80-1.13
-0.52
1.001.32
0.76
0.58
-1.69
-0.18
-1.16
-2.46
-1.30
-1.74
-1.04
-0.52
-0.87-1.26
-0.08
-1.58
-0.73
-1.14
-1.86-2.33
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Triliu
n Rp
% t
hd P
DB
Pendapatan (skala kanan) Belanja (skala kanan) Surplus/defisit (skala kiri)
Sumber: BI (2014d); ADB (2014a, 2014b)
…utang pemerintah pusat juga mengalamipeningkatan meskipun masih tergolong normal
12/14/2014 M. Indra Maulana 3
1,234 1,273 1,225 1,232 1,300 1,313 1,302 1,389 1,637 1,591 1,682 1,809 1,978 2,376
88.8
77.3
67.261.2
56.6
47.3
39.035.2 33.1
28.4 26.1 24.4 24.0 26.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
%
Triliu
n Rp
Nominal (skala kiri) Rasio terhadap PDB (skala kanan)
Sumber: ADB (2014a, 2014b); DJPU (2009, 2010, 2014)
• Pandangan klasik menganggap defisit fiskalakan meningkatkan suku bunga (crowding out) (Bernheim 1989; Hyman 2011)– Peningkatan pengeluaran mendorong kenaikan
pinjaman pemerintah (permintaan pinjamanmeningkat)
– Beberapa studi empiris mendukung pandangantersebut (Chen 1998; Miller dan Russek 1991; Ramachandran 2000; Laubach 2009; Agbetsiafa 2012; Odionye & Uma 2013)
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Suku bunga
• Ricardian menganggap defisit fiskal tidakberpengaruh terhadap suku bunga (Hyman 2011)– Defisit yang terjadi, akan dikompensasi dengan
kebijakan fiskal kontraktif di masa depan– Masyarakat kemudian meningkatkan tabungan
dengan mengurangi konsumsi– Beberapa studi empiris telah menemukan
indikasi REH (Siklos 1988; Monadjemi 1989; Patnaik 2001; Das 2004; Bhattacharya 2009)
12/14/2014 M. Indra Maulana 6
Suku bunga…(2)
Terdapat indikasi Ricardian sejak tahun2000…
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20.8
25.524.0
20.617.8
18.9 19.2
21.8
32.2
27.7
18.5 18.5 18.916.9
14.1 14.1
16.0
13.9 13.6
14.5
13.312.4 11.8 11.6
13.6 13.713.1
14.614.9 15.4
15.615.4
16.9 18.5
15.415.8 16.9 17.0
16.7 16.1
15.7
15.9 15.2
14.7
14.1 13.7 13.6 14.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Suku bunga pinjaman (%) Konsumsi RT (% thd PDB)
Sumber: IMF (2014); BI (2014h)
• Defisit cenderung menyebabkan kenaikaninflasi
• Hal ini umumnya disebabkan oleh adanyaperan bank sentral sebagai sumber utamapembiayaan defisit (Sargent & Wallace 1981; Ramachandran 2000; Escario et al. 2012; Jalil et al. 2014)
12/14/2014 M. Indra Maulana 8
Inflasi
Sejak tahun 2000, inflasi dan jumlah uangberedar cenderung stabil…
12/14/2014 M. Indra Maulana 9
7.81
9.42
7.53
9.69
8.52
9.43
7.976.23
58.39
20.49
3.7211.50
11.88
6.59
6.2410.45
13.11
6.419.78
4.815.13
5.36 4.28
6.41
454
447
468
503551
590
556
625
218
292
278
274
285
291
299
325
324282 340
288253 266 288
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
% th
d ca
d. d
evisa
%
Inflasi (skala kiri) M2 (skala kanan)
Sumber: BI (2014a); ADB (2014a, 2014b); World Bank (2014)
…sementara itu, Bank Indonesia (BI) terindikasibukan sebagai sumber pembiayaan defisit
12/14/2014 M. Indra Maulana 10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
44.234.2 37.2 36.2 32.8
51.863.0 61.7 63.4
62.4
3.9 2.8 1.1 0.4 4.9
% th
d to
tal S
BN
Dep. Keuangan
BI
Perorangan
Bank umum
Sumber: BI (2004, 2005a, 2014e)
• Terdapat dua hipotesis (Blanchard 1985; Kasa 1994):– Twin deficit hypothesis (TDH)
• Masyarakat diasumsikan memiliki waktu hidup terbatas (finite horizon)
• Oleh karenanya masayarkat kemungkinan akan menanggungkompensasi defisit saat ini di masa depan
• Hanya saja, peningkatan tabungan masyarakat lebih rendahdibandingkan penurunan tabungan pemerintah
• Kedua hal tersebut kemudian menyebabkan defisit current account
• Beberapa studi empiris telah membuktikan TDH (Miller & Russek 1989; Onafowora & Owoye 2006; Lau & Tang 2009; Siddiqui 2009; Saeed & Khan 2012; Kumhof & Laxton 2013; Trachanas & Katrakilidis 2013; Bakarr 2014)
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Twin deficit
– Ricardian• Masyarakat diasumsikan memiliki waktu hidup tidak
terbatas (infinite horizon)• Oleh karenanya, masyarakat akan menanggung
kompensasi defisit di masa depan• Tabungan masyarakat meningkat dengan jumlah yang
sama dengan penurunan tabungan pemerintah, sehinggacurrent account tidak terpengaruh
• Beberapa studi empiris yang menemukan Ricardian, umumnya juga menemukan TDH (Nickel & Vansteenkiste 2008; Eldemerdash et al. 2014; Gosse & Serranito 2014)
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Twin deficit…(2)
Pergerakan current account dan budget balancecenderung tidak berkorelasi…
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1.16
-0.80-1.13
-0.52
1.001.32
0.76 0.58
-1.69
-0.18
-1.16
-2.46
-1.30
-1.74
-1.04
-0.52
-0.87 -1.26
-0.08
-1.58
-0.73 -1.14
-1.86
-2.33-2.61
-3.32
-2.00
-1.33 -1.58
-3.18 -3.37
-2.32
4.29 4.134.84
4.30 4.003.45
0.610.10
2.982.43
0.02
1.97
0.730.20
-2.78-3.28-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990199119921993199419951996199719981999 20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013
% t
hd P
DB
Budget balance Current account
Sumber: BI (2014d); ADB (2014a, 2014b)
…sementara itu, utang luar negeri pemerintahpusat cenderung mengalami kenaikan…
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52.87 53.64 56.8460.31 60.37 61.29
58.89 58.9955.84 57.42 58.60 52.64
49.9846.5247.13 46.36
43.1639.69 39.63 38.71
41.11 41.0144.16 42.58 41.40
47.36
50.0253.48
22.8 23.9 25.1 26.2 24.220.8
25.2
18.814.1
19.4 17.414.7
17.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Pemerintah pusat (% thd utang luar negeri) Swasta (% thd utang luar negeri) DSR (% thd ekspor)
Sumber: BI (2014g); ADB (2014a, 2014b)
…walaupun demikian, peningkatan tersebut tidakberpengaruh terhadap struktur pembiayaan defisit
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-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
112.6
91.6
130.9
175.2
243.2
-12.4 -4.6-17.8 -23.5 -5.8
Triliu
n Rp
Dalam negeriLuar negeri
Sumber: BI (2014d)
• Suksesi Pemerintahan– Defisit umumnya digunakan untuk meraih
simpati masyarakat, sehingga terpilih kembali(Pasten & Cover 2010; Eslava 2011)
– Semakin kecilnya peluang untuk terpilihkembali, defisit juga akan semakin besarmengingat pemerintah selanjutnya yang akanmenanggungnya (Alesina & Tabellini 1990; Rumi 2009; Eslava 2011)
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Politik
• Tingkat demokrasi– Terdapat hubungan negatif antara defisit
dengan perkembangan demokrasi (Elgie &McMenamin 2008; Javid et al. 2011)
– Banyaknya partai politik juga cenderungmeningkatkan defisit, mengingat semakinsulitnya menyatukan kekuatan untukmengimbangi pemerintah (Volkerink & de Haan 2001; Elgie & McMenamin 2008)
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Politik…(2)
Terdapat indikasi positif antara pemilu politikdengan belanja sosial…
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24.9
40.7
49.8
57.7
73.8
21.7
71.175.6
92.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Triliu
n Rp
Tahun Pemilu
Ket: Bantuan sosial baru dikeluarkan pada 2005Sumber: BI (2014c)
Kesimpulan1. Defisit fiskal terindikasi tidak berpengaruh
terhadap suku bunga2. Defisit fiskal terindikasi tidak berpengaruh
terhadap inflasi3. Defisit fiskal terindikasi tidak berpengaruh
terhadap defisit current account4. Adanya indikasi aspek politik berpengaruh
terhadap defisit fiskal
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12/14/2014 M. Indra Maulana 24
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