1 pinatubo flooding
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BALIUAG
GUIGUINTO
PLARIDEL
PULILAN
CALUMPIT
MALOLOS
BULACAN
PAOMBONG
HAGONOY
CANDABA
STA. ANA
MEXICO
ARAYAT
STO. TOMAS
MINALIN
MASANTOL
MACABEBE
APALIT
SAN LUIS
ZARAGOSA
GUIMBA
CABANGAN
HERMOSA
DINALUPIHAN
MORONGSAMAL
ORANI
ANGELES
CAPAS
STA. IGNACIA
MAYANTOC
MAGALANG
BAMBAN
PORAC
OLONGAPOSUBIC
CASTILLEJOS
GERONA
ALIAGA
JAEN
STA. ROSA
ZARAGOZA
SAN ANTONIO
CABIAO
VICTORIA
LA PAZ
CONCEPCION
TARLAC
SASMUAN
MABALACAT
SAN ANTONIO
BOTOLAN
IBA
PALAUIG
MASINLOC
SAN CLEMENTECAMILING
PANIQUI
RAMOS
PURA
MANGATAREM
CANDELARIA
FLOOD PRONE
LAHAR PRONE
1992 LAHAR
1991 LAHAR
PYROCLASTIC
LEGEND:
FLOW DEPOSIT
AREA
AREA
1993 LAHAR
AREA AT RISK
LAKE, SEA
DUE TO AVULSION
SAN FERNANDO
BACOLOR
STA. RITA
GUAGUA
LUBAO
FLORIDABLANCA
SAN FELIPE
SAN NARCISO
SAN MARCELINO
0 10km
GRAPHIC SCALE
1991 Pinatubo Eruption (Case 1)
1.20 million people affected by
eruption and subsequent lahars
200,000 people entered
evacuation centers (ECs)
21 municipalities remained to
be high risk from lahars over
the next 5-10 years
In May 1993, 72,335 were still
residing in 54 ECs
38,000 others had relocated in
official settlement sites
BALIUAG
GUIGUINTO
PLARIDEL
PULILAN
CALUMPIT
MALOLOS
BULACAN
PAOMBONG
HAGONOY
CANDABA
STA. ANA
MEXICO
ARAYAT
STO. TOMAS
MINALIN
MASANTOL
MACABEBE
APALIT
SAN LUIS
ZARAGOSA
GUIMBA
CABANGAN
HERMOSA
DINALUPIHAN
MORONGSAMAL
ORANI
ANGELES
CAPAS
STA. IGNACIA
MAYANTOC
MAGALANG
BAMBAN
PORAC
OLONGAPOSUBIC
CASTILLEJOS
GERONA
ALIAGA
JAEN
STA. ROSA
ZARAGOZA
SAN ANTONIO
CABIAO
VICTORIA
LA PAZ
CONCEPCION
TARLAC
SASMUAN
MABALACAT
SAN ANTONIO
BOTOLAN
IBA
PALAUIG
MASINLOC
SAN CLEMENTECAMILING
PANIQUI
RAMOS
PURA
MANGATAREM
CANDELARIA
FLOOD PRONE
LAHAR PRONE
1992 LAHAR
1991 LAHAR
PYROCLASTIC
LEGEND:
FLOW DEPOSIT
AREA
AREA
1993 LAHAR
AREA AT RISK
LAKE, SEA
DUE TO AVULSION
SAN FERNANDO
BACOLOR
STA. RITA
GUAGUA
LUBAO
FLORIDABLANCA
SAN FELIPE
SAN NARCISO
SAN MARCELINO
0 10km
GRAPHIC SCALE
• Completed 26Jul2001
• P2.303 Billion cost
• Restored reliability of Mac Arthur Highway (+Mabalacat/Bamban Bridges)
• Restored Concepcion by-pass/alternate road (+San Francisco Bridge)
• Contained lahar deposition in Sacobia-Bamban River
PHUMP Master Plan, Phase 1
PHUMP - Pinatubo Hazard Urgent Mitigation Project
BALIUAG
GUIGUINTO
PLARIDEL
PULILAN
CALUMPIT
MALOLOS
BULACAN
PAOMBONG
HAGONOY
CANDABA
STA. ANA
MEXICO
ARAYAT
STO. TOMAS
MINALIN
MASANTOL
MACABEBE
APALIT
SAN LUIS
ZARAGOSA
GUIMBA
CABANGAN
HERMOSA
DINALUPIHAN
MORONGSAMAL
ORANI
ANGELES
CAPAS
STA. IGNACIA
MAYANTOC
MAGALANG
BAMBAN
PORAC
OLONGAPOSUBIC
CASTILLEJOS
GERONA
ALIAGA
JAEN
STA. ROSA
ZARAGOZA
SAN ANTONIO
CABIAO
VICTORIA
LA PAZ
CONCEPCION
TARLAC
SASMUAN
MABALACAT
SAN ANTONIO
BOTOLAN
IBA
PALAUIG
MASINLOC
SAN CLEMENTECAMILING
PANIQUI
RAMOS
PURA
MANGATAREM
CANDELARIA
FLOOD PRONE
LAHAR PRONE
1992 LAHAR
1991 LAHAR
PYROCLASTIC
LEGEND:
FLOW DEPOSIT
AREA
AREA
1993 LAHAR
AREA AT RISK
LAKE, SEA
DUE TO AVULSION
SAN FERNANDO
BACOLOR
STA. RITA
GUAGUA
LUBAO
FLORIDABLANCA
SAN FELIPE
SAN NARCISO
SAN MARCELINO
0 10km
GRAPHIC SCALE
•Completed March 2006
•Cost of P4.524 Billion
•Rehabilitated & fortified megadike
• Widened Gapan-San Fernando-Olongapo (GSO) Road
•Reconstructed Mancatian Bridge across Megadike w/c re-established the Dinalupihan-Angeles Road
•Pilot dredged Pasac Delta & Third River areas
PHUMP Master Plan, Phase 2
BALIUAG
GUIGUINTO
PLARIDEL
PULILAN
CALUMPIT
MALOLOS
BULACAN
PAOMBONG
HAGONOY
CANDABA
STA. ANA
MEXICO
ARAYAT
STO. TOMAS
MINALIN
MASANTOL
MACABEBE
APALIT
SAN LUIS
ZARAGOSA
GUIMBA
CABANGAN
HERMOSA
DINALUPIHAN
MORONGSAMAL
ORANI
ANGELES
CAPAS
STA. IGNACIA
MAYANTOC
MAGALANG
BAMBAN
PORAC
OLONGAPOSUBIC
CASTILLEJOS
GERONA
ALIAGA
JAEN
STA. ROSA
ZARAGOZA
SAN ANTONIO
CABIAO
VICTORIA
LA PAZ
CONCEPCION
TARLAC
SASMUAN
MABALACAT
SAN ANTONIO
BOTOLAN
IBA
PALAUIG
MASINLOC
SAN CLEMENTECAMILING
PANIQUI
RAMOS
PURA
MANGATAREM
CANDELARIA
FLOOD PRONE
LAHAR PRONE
1992 LAHAR
1991 LAHAR
PYROCLASTIC
LEGEND:
FLOW DEPOSIT
AREA
AREA
1993 LAHAR
AREA AT RISK
LAKE, SEA
DUE TO AVULSION
SAN FERNANDO
BACOLOR
STA. RITA
GUAGUA
LUBAO
FLORIDABLANCA
SAN FELIPE
SAN NARCISO
SAN MARCELINO
0 10km
GRAPHIC SCALE
Structural Measures •Flood damage mitigation, channel improvement in Porac-Gumain River •Drainage efficiency improvement in Pasac Delta & San Fernando River (link up w/ Third River)
Non-structural Measures •Study on extent of watershed degradation, its effects & causes • Integrated plan for comprehensive non-structural measures land use plan formulation rehabilitation options in
upper Porac-Gumain River basins flood management plan
& flood forecasting and warning system institutional set-up for
sustainable O&M of PHUMP 2 & 3 works identifying other priority
non-engineering sub-projects`
PHUMP, Phase 3 (Flood/Mudflow Control
Works for Porac-Gumain River in Pasac Delta
& San Fernando City (P4.132 billion)
Place: Mun. Town Hall, Guagua
Depth: 1.2m (max.)
Duration: (Still Inundated, as of July 19)
Place: Sto. Tomas, Lubao
Depth: 0.6m (ave.)
Duration: (Still Inundated, as of July 19)
Place: Mun. Town Hall, Sasmuan
Depth: 1.0m (max.)
Duration: (Still Inundated, as of July 19)
FLOODING SITUATION DUE TO TYPHOON GLORIA (JULY 2002)
0 0.50 1.0
2.0 km.
0.1 - 0.30 M
1 day – 1 Week
0.3 - 0.60 M
1 Wk to 1-Mon.
Inundation Map of City of San Fernando
0.6 M
Mon.
LAND USE INUNDATION ESTIMATED AVERAGE ESTIMATED
CLASS DEPTH NO. OF UNITS ASSESS VALUE FLOOD
DAMAGE
(m) km2 (500m2/Unit) 750,000/UNIT (Pesos)
0.1-0.3m 3.83 7660 5,745,000,000 0.025 143,625,000
0.3-0.6m 5.02 10040 7,530,000,000 0.03 225,900,000
> 0.6m 2.44 4880 3,660,000,000 0.035 128,100,000
km2 (1,000m2/Unit) 1,500,000/UNIT
0.1-0.3m 1.09 1090 1,635,000,000 0.025 40,875,000
0.3-0.6m 1.01 1010 1,515,000,000 0.03 45,450,000
> 0.6m 0 0 0 0.035 0
km2 (HECTARE) 195,000/HECTARE
0.1-0.3m 1.38 138 26,910,000 0.025 672,750
0.3-0.6m 0.75 75 14,625,000 0.03 438,750
> 0.6m 0.22 22 4,290,000 0.035 150,150
km2 (3,000m2/Unit) 3,000,000/UNIT
0.1-0.3m 0.1 33 100,000,000 0.02 2,000,000
0.3-0.6m 0.09 30 90,000,000 0.025 2,250,000
> 0.6m 0 0 0 0.03 0
km2 (5,000m2/Unit) 2,000,000/UNIT
0.1-0.3m 0.04 8 16,000,000 0.02 320,000
0.3-0.6m 0 0 0 0.04 0
> 0.6m 0 0 0 0.05 0
0.1-0.3m 0.02 0 0 0 0
0.3-0.6m 0 0 0 0 0
> 0.6m 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 589,781,650
Source: Factor applied from the Study on Flood Control and Drainage Project in Metro Manila, Volume 1 Main Report, 1990, JICA
ESTIMATED FLOOD DAMAGES IN SURVEY AREA(NORTH AND SOUTH BLOCK )
AREAFACTOR
COMMERCIAL
RESIDENTIAL
OPEN SPACE
INDUSTRIAL
INSTITUTIONAL
AGRICULTURAL
*
* See Angeles
Values
Objectives The project is part of the over-all engineering intervention works whose ultimate aim
is to rehabilitate affected areas devastated by the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, restore
conditions at least to pre-eruption levels, and provide the necessary facilities to
protect lives, properties, settlements, against lahar deposition and or flooding. Its
objective/purpose is to improve drainage, reduce extent, & minimize the duration of
flooding in Pasac Delta and Porac-Gumain river influence areas in the Province of
Pampanga. Specifically, the project aims to:
Reduce inundation depth from 1.5 – 1.8 meters to 0.60 – 0.90 meters in
the affected areas during 20-year flood event; and
a)
Shorten inundation time from 45 days to 10 days, and 10 days to 2-3
days during 20-year and 2-year flood event, respectively.
b)
Flooding was reduced in terms of area covered, duration and depth as follows
2-year flood 5-year flood 20-year flood
Area (ha) Days Depth Area (ha) Days Depth Area (ha) Days Depth
Without
Project
47,100.00 9 0.3-0.4 49,600.00 18 0.6-0.3 51,900.00 45 1.5-1.8
With
Project
29,000.00 2 0.1-0.2 35,500.00 4 0.2-.03 46,200.00 10 0.6-0.9
The following direct damages from flooding & lahar deposition are avoided:
a) Properties : P 198.96 M/Yr
P 26.02 M/Yr - Roads & bridges
P 119.68 M/Yr - Residential houses
P 53.26 M/Yr - Commercial bldgs & establishments
b) Agri-production : P 411.82 M/Yr.
P 136.08 M/Yr - rice or 13,608 ton (P 10.0/kg raw rice/paddy)
P 275.74 M/Yr - fish or 4,596 ton (P 60.00/kg)
c) Income losses : P 1,127.07 M/Yr (35 days) or
P 24,381 / HH / year or
P 4,583 / person / year
PHUMP Phase III Benefit Estimates
1. BASE CASE
(a) Project Cost
Investment cost : PhP 4,132 Mil.
(b) Project Benefits (per year) : PhP 1,670 Mil.
Avoided damage to property : PhP 198 Mil.
Avoided damage to agricultural production : PhP 412 Mil.
Avoided losses to livelihood : PhP 1,127 Mil.
(c) O/M cost per year : PhP 36 Mil.
(d) Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) : 31.84%
2. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Case EIRR (%) Remarks
1 28.81 Investment costs increase by 10%
2 28.49 Benefits decrease by 10%
3 26.47 Case 1 plus Case 2
4 26.95 Investment costs increase by 20%
5 25.88 Benefits decrease by 20%
6 22.35 Case 4 plus Case 5
Indicator Base Case
Cost Increase Benefit Decrease Combination
+10% +20% -10% -20%
+10%C/ -
10%B
+20%C/ -
20%B
IRR (%) 31.84
29.64
27.72 29.31
26.64
27.23
23.02
NPV (15%) 3,245.8
3,025.2
2,804.6 2,678.5 2,111.2 2,457.9
1,669.9
B/C 4.97 4.52
4.14 4.45 3.94 4.05 3.28
PHUMP Phase III Economic Evaluation
• Resettlement : 110 households (approx.)
– CP-2 40 households
– CP-3a/3b 40 households
– CP-4 30 households
• Land Acquisition :
– Structural areas : 203 ha
• Residential 1.0 ha
• Rice field 16.0 ha
• Fishpond 186.0 ha
– Spoil disposal areas in construction stage : about 311 ha
– Possible free spoil site areas within the Mun. of Guagua, 125
has.(approx.)
Projected cost of ROW acquisition of about P 537 million is needed to undertake
these activities. Acquisition of fishpond, rice field, and residential lots were
estimated at P 100.00/m2, P 250.00/m2, and P 1,500.00/m2, respectively.
Social and Environmental Evaluation
Estimated cost of residential structures ranges from PHP 4T/m2,
PHP 6T/m2, PHP 7.5T/m2 and PHP 10T/m2.
Affected Structures/Improvements
Note: Cost of structures/improvements based on actual estimate. Valuation based on
replacement cost method per Section 10, RA 8974 IRR
Devt Challenge
Goal Objective/ Target
Strategy / Policy
Program/Projects/ Activities
Flooding aggravated by the effects of the Pinatubo eruption along the influence areas of Porac-Gumain and San Fernando Rivers in Pampanga (refer to Table 5-7 for details)
Rehabilitate Pinatubo eruption affected areas, restore conditions to at least the pre-eruption levels, and institute measures to protect settlements, industrial and other socio-economic development against lahar deposition and flooding.
Reduce flood risks by implementing measures to reduce extent & minimize duration of flooding as follows:
Porac-Gumain: • Reduce inundation
depth from 1.5-1.8 meters to 0.60-0.90 meters during 20-year flood event; and shorten inundation time from 45 days to 10 days, and 10 days to 2-3 days during 20-year and 2-year flood event, respectively.
San Fernando: • Reduce inundation
depth from 0.3-0.6 meters down to 0.1- 0.2 meters; shorten inundation time from 18 days down to 4 days
Secure the reliability of the region’s major arterial roads and other key infrastructure facilities.
• Implement flood/mudflow control measures in order to (1) mitigate flood damages by channel improvement works in the Porac-Gumain River; (2) improve drainage efficiencies of river channel networks in the Pasac Delta, including the Fernando river & its efficient link up with the Third River.
• Plan out and Implement non-structural measures and institutional capability building in order to complement and ensure effectiveness of the instituted structural measures
• Retrofit key roads and infrastructures corresponding to the worst case scenario.
Pinatubo Hazard Urgent Mitigation Project (PHUMP) - Phase III Part I: Flood/Mudflow Control Works Dredging/excavation of major (Pasac, Guagua & Dalan Bapor) rivers, 19.2 km in length River diversion of the lower Porac-Gumain River to Pampanga Bay, 18.7km in length (7.2km with dike & 11.5km without dike) Improvement of 6 local drainage channels (14.7 km) & partial relocation of 2 channels (4.5 km) Construction of new bridges and raising of key roads & bridges. Dredging, excavation, improvement & embankment protection of San Fernando River & tributaries (with upgrading of Panlumacan Bridge & approaches)
Part II: Monitoring and Planning of Non-structural Measures and Institutional Capability Building (ICB) Formulation of comprehensive land use plan/s covering the entire watershed (with ROW acquisition & resettlement plan); Optimum rehabilitation options in the upstream stretch of Porac and Gumain river basins; Instituting flood forecasting and warning system (FFWS); Formulation of flood management plans of downstream LGUs; Formulation of development framework plan (ID institutional set-up and requirements); and Ensuring sustainable operation & maintenance of PHUMP II and III. Widening/Improvement of GSO Road & Emergency Dredging Project Widening/improvement of critical GSO Road sections; Raising of Sta. Cruz Bridge; and Dredging of critical waterways affecting GSO Road
Table 5-14 Development Planning Framework (The Case of Flooding in Pampanga)
Reconstructed hospital considering worst scenario flooding
LIVING WITH THE FLOODS ADB-FAO Tonle Sap Environmental Management Project
Kingdom of Cambodia
Team Leader: E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.