Program Studi Teknik Lingkungan Universitas Lambung Mangkurat Tugas Besar Perencanaan Pengolahan Air Buangan

2.10 Proyeksi PendudukTabel 2.8 Metode AritmatikaN0.TahunJumlah Penduduk(P)Pertambahan( r )Proyeksi Penduduk(Pn)(P - Pn)2(P - Pr)2

12001563433-563.4330834.921.025

220025705457.112569.688734449474.499.089

320035784567.911575.9436315169192.432.384

420045864547.998582.1981811353634.503.876

520055918535.399588.45311560000225.625

620065943442.491594.7081324964.064.256

720075982233.879600.963750760034.751.025

820086063678.144607.218724201197.093.521

920096138777.510613.473163216464.359.401

1020106197285.851619.7280750.760.000

Jumlah5.923.28056.2955.915.805452506672.987.610.202

Rata-rata592.3286.255591.5814525067298.761.020

Korelasi (R2)0,985

Standar Deviasi (STD)2.018,058

Sumber: Perhitungan

Tabel 2.9 Metode GeomatrikN0.TahunJumlah Penduduk(P)Rasio Pertambahan( r )Proyeksi Penduduk(Pn)(P - Pn)2(P - Pr)2

12001563433-563.433-834.921.025

220025705450,012569.3601.403.095474.499.089

320035784560,014575.3509.645.296192.432.384

420045864540,014581.40325.510.95834.503.876

520055918530,009587.52018.777.570225.625

620065943440,004593.701414.0074.064.256

720075982230,006599.9462.970.33734.751.025

820086063670,013606.25811.865197.093.521

920096138770,012612.6361.539.872464.359.401

1020106197280,009619.081418.361750.760.000

Jumlah5.923.2800,0955.908.68960.691.3612.987.610.202

Rata-rata592.3280,011590.8696.743.485298.761.020

Korelasi (R2)0,980

Standar Deviasi (STD)2.337,140

Tabel 2.10 Metode Regresi LinierN0.Tahun( x )Jumlah Penduduk(P)x2x . PProyeksi Penduduk (Pn)(P - Pn)2(P - Pr)2

120015634334.004.0011.127.429.433565.4013.872.094834.921.025

220025705454.008.0041.142.231.090571.385704.918474.499.089

320035784564.012.0091.158.647.368577.3681.182.821192.432.384

420045864544.016.0161.175.253.816583.3529.620.82534.503.876

520055918534.020.0251.186.665.265589.3366.334.862225.625

620065943444.024.0361.192.254.064595.320952.4104.064.256

720075982234.028.0491.200.633.561601.3049.490.99334.751.025

820086063674.032.0641.217.584.936607.288847.460197.093.521

920096138774.036.0811.233.278.893613.271366.744464.359.401

1020106197284.040.1001.245.653.280619.255223.505750.760.000

Jumlah200555.923.28040.220.38511.879.631.7065.923.280,0033.596.6322.987.610.202

Rerata592.3284.022.0391.187.963.171592.328,003.359.663298.761.020

a-11.408.243,673Persamaan : -11.408.243,673+5.983,830x

b5.983,830

Korelasi (R2)0,989

Standar Deviasi (STD)1.738,878

Sumber: Perhitungan

Tabel 2.11 Metode EksponensialN0.Tahun( x )Jumlah Penduduk(P)x2ln Px . ln PProyeksi Penduduk (Pn)(P - Pn)2(P - Pr)2

120015634334.004.00113,24226.497565.7305.277.161834.921.025

220025705454.008.00413,25426.535571.481876.945474.499.089

320035784564.012.00913,26826.576577.2911.356.836192.432.384

420045864544.016.01613,28226.617583.16010.850.81434.503.876

520055918534.020.02513,29126.648589.0887.643.121225.625

620065943444.024.03613,29526.670595.077537.4174.064.256

720075982234.028.04913,30226.697601.1278.431.33134.751.025

820086063674.032.06413,31526.737607.238758.230197.093.521

920096138774.036.08113,32826.775613.411217.176464.359.401

1020106197284.040.10013,33726.807619.6476.569750.760.000

Jumlah200555.923.28040.220.385132,914266.5605.923.25135.955.6002.987.610.202

Rerata592.3284.022.03913,28626.656592.325,13.595.560298.761.020

ln a-6,994a 0,00092Persamaan : 0,00092.2,71828180,010x

b0,010

Korelasi (R2)0,988

Standar Deviasi (STD)1.884,455

Sumber: Perhitungan

Tabel 2.11 Metode LogaritmikN0.Tahun( x )Jumlah Penduduk(P)ln x(ln x)2P . ln xProyeksi Penduduk (Pn)(P - Pn)2(P - Pr)2

120015634337,60157,7814.282.881565.3823.800.268834.921.025

220025705457,60257,7894.337.227571.378694.394474.499.089

320035784567,60257,7974.397.655577.3711.176.824192.432.384

420045864547,60357,8044.458.751583.3619.566.18634.503.876

520055918537,60357,8124.500.095589.3486.275.142225.625

620065943447,60457,8194.519.331595.332975.9334.064.256

720075982237,60457,8274.549.125601.3139.547.03634.751.025

820086063677,60557,8344.611.357607.291853.375197.093.521

920096138777,60557,8424.668.775613.266373.612464.359.401

1020106197287,60657,8504.713.583619.238240.328750.760.000

Jumlah200555.923.28076,036578,15545.038.7805.923.28033.503.1002.987.610.202

Rerata592.3287,60457,8154.503.878592.3283.350.310298.761.020

a-90.657.106,036Persamaan :-90.657.106,036+12.000.744,658. ln x

b12.000.744,658

Korelasi (R2)0,989

Standar Deviasi (STD)1.736,456

Sumber: Perhitungan

Tabel 2.13 Pemilihan Metode Proyeksi PendudukAritmatikGeometrikRegresi LinierEksponensialLogaritmik

R20,9850,9800,9890,9880,989

STD2018,0582337,1401738,8781884,4551736,456

Sumber: Perhitungan

Tabel 2.14 Proyeksi Penduduk tahun 2011 sampai dengan 2020N0.TahunProyeksi Penduduk (Jiwa)Proyeksi Kepadatan Penduduk (L = 371,38 Km2)% Pertumbuhan

20106197281669

1201162520716830,009

2201263117317000,010

3201363713617160,009

4201464309617320,009

5201564905317480,009

6201665500817640,009

7201766095917800,009

8201866690717960,009

9201967285318120,009

10202067879518280,009

Sumber: Perhitungan

Lisa Fitrianty H1E111024