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CALIFORNIA PATH PROGRAM

INSTITUTE OF TRANSPORTATION STUDIES

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY

Traffic Management System

Using Regression Analysis

David Levinson, Wei Chen

University of Minnesota

California PATH Working Paper

UCB-ITS-PWP-2006-3

This work was performed as part of the California PATH Program ofthe University of California, in cooperation with the State of California

Business, Transportation, and Housing Agency, Department of Trans-

portation, and the United States Department Transportation, Federal

Highway Administration.

The contents of this report reflect the responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the data

presented herein.

The contents do not necessarily reflect the State of California. This report does not constit

standard, spec-

ification, or regulation.

Report for Task Order 4132

March 2006

ISSN 1055-1417



CALIFORNIA PARTNERS FOR ADVANCED TRANSIT AND HIGHWAYS



Traffic Management System Performance

Using Regression Analysis

A case stud !" M#$DOT%s T&a""'c Ma#a(e)e#t Sste)s

Da*'d Le*'#s!#+ We' Ce#

-

De.a&t)e#t !" C'*'/ E#('#ee&'#(

U#'*e&s't !" M'##es!ta

011 P'//s2u& D&'*e SEM'##ea.!/'s, MN 00300

/e*'#14+5u)#6edu

V7 8+-98-098403F7 8+-98-89::01

+6 Ass!c'ate P&!"ess!&, -6 Resea&c Ass'sta#t

Abstract

T's stud ca# 2e *'e;ed as a .&e/')'#a& e<./!&at'!# !" us'#( &e(&ess'!# a#a/s's t! e*a/uate /!#(9&u# t&a""'c

)a#a(e)e#t sste) .e&"!&)a#ce6 F!u& )a'# t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)s '# te T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea 999

Ra). Mete&'#( Sste), Va&'a2/e Messa(e S'(#s =VMS>, H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a), a#d H'( Occu.a#c

Ve'c/e =HOV> Sste) ;e&e e*a/uated 2ased !# )u/t'./e &e(&ess'!# )!de/s6 L'#? s.eed a#d '#c'de#t &ate

;e&e e)./!ed as te &es.!#se *a&'a2/e se.a&ate/6 C!#se@ue#t/, &e(&ess'!# a#a/s's ca# 2e a s')./e a#d

e""ect'*e &esea&c )et!d "!& test'#( te )ac&!sc!.'c ass!c'at'!# 2et;ee# t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t a#d t&a""'c

sste) .e&"!&)a#ce !;e*e&, add't'!#a/ &esea&c 's st'// #ecessa& t! !2ta'# a# !*e&a// e*a/uat'!# !" eac !"

te t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)s6 Fu&te&)!&e, ').&!*e)e#ts c!u/d 2e )ade t&!u( )!de/ ').&!*e)e#t,

add'#( &e/e*a#t .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es, a#d dec&eas'#( data9/')'tat'!#s6

Key Words7 Re(&ess'!# a#a/s's T&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste) T&a""'c sste) .e&"!&)a#ce

Be"!&e9a#d9a"te& stud Res.!#se *a&'a2/es P&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es Mu/t'./e &e(&ess'!# )!de/S.eed I#c'de#t Rate Ra). Mete&'#( Sste) Va&'a2/e Messa(e S'(#s =VMS> H'(;a

He/.e& P&!(&a) H'( Occu.a#c Ve'c/e =HOV> Sste)6



Traffic Management System Performance Using Regression Analysis

1. INTROU!TION

Te M'##es!ta De.a&t)e#t !" T&a#s.!&tat'!# =M#$DOT> T&a""'c Ma#a(e)e#t Ce#te& =TMC>

sta&ted '# +:- t! ce#t&a// c!#t&!/ te "&ee;a sste) '# te T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea6 Te TMC

a')s t! .&!*'de )!t!&'sts ;'t a "aste&, sa"e& t&'. !# )et&! a&ea "&ee;as 2 !.t')''#( te use

!" a*a'/a2/e "&ee;a ca.ac't, e""'c'e#t/ )a#a('#( '#c'de#ts a#d s.ec'a/ e*e#ts, .&!*'d'#(

t&a*e/e& '#"!&)at'!#, a#d .&!*'d'#( '#ce#t'*es "!& &'de sa&'#(6 Te TMC &ea/'es 'ts (!a/

t&!u( t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)s =TMS>, '#c/ud'#( Ra). Mete&'#( Sste), Va&'a2/e

Messa(e S'(#s =VMS>, H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a), H'( Occu.a#c Ve'c/e =HOV> Sste),

L!!. Detect!& Sste), C/!sed C'&cu't TV =CCTV> ca)e&as, a#d T&a*e/e& I#"!&)at'!# P&!(&a)6

W'/e te TMC as a /!#( 'st!& !" !.e&at'!#, te e""ect'*e#ess !" s!)e !" te t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)s

a*e 2ee# &ece#t/ @uest'!#ed999d! te &ea// e/. &ea/'e te !2ect'*es !" te TMC, !& &ate&, d! te )a?e

t&a""'c c!#d't'!#s e*e# ;!&se T's stud '#te#ds t! e*a/uate te sste)9;'de .e&"!&)a#ce !" "!u& )a'# t&a""'c

)a#a(e)e#t sste)s '# te T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea 999 Ra). Mete&'#( Sste), Va&'a2/e Messa(e S'(#s,

H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a), a#d H'( Occu.a#c Ve'c/e =HOV> Sste) us'#( &e(&ess'!# a#a/s's6 Te

t&ad't'!#a/ 2e"!&e9a#d9a"te& stud a#d te &e(&ess'!# a#a/s's )et!d ;e&e c!).a&ed, te !ut/'#e !" te

&e(&ess'!# a#a/s's ;as .&ese#ted a#d 'ts /')'tat'!#s ;e&e stated6 I# te t;! case stud'es, /'#? s.eed a#d

'#c'de#t &ate ;e&e e)./!ed as te &es.!#se *a&'a2/e se.a&ate/6 F&ee;a /!!. detect!& data a#d '#c'de#t

&ec!&d 2 TMC "&ee;a ca)e&as ;e&e used "!& t's stud6

". Main Traffic Management Systems

T's stud e*a/uated te sste)9;'de .e&"!&)a#ce !" "!u& )a'# t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)s '# te

T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea 999 Ra). Mete&'#( Sste), Va&'a2/e Messa(e S'(#s, H'(;a He/.e&

P&!(&a), a#d H'( Occu.a#c Ve'c/e =HOV> Sste)6 Te !2ect'*e, 'st!&, sc!.e a#d

!.e&at'!# st&ate( !" eac sste) a&e su))a&'ed as "!//!;s++, +-

7

I. Ram# Metering System

Ob$ecti%e& Ra). )ete&s '# te T;'# C't'es a&e '#te#ded t! &educe de/a a#d

c!#(est'!#, &educe acc'de#t &ates, a#d s)!!t "/!; at !#9&a). u#ct'!#s 2

e/.'#( )e&(e t&a""'c !#t! "&ee;as a#d )a#a(e te "/!; !" t&a""'c t&!u(

2!tt/e#ec?s6

'istory& Te M'##es!ta De.a&t)e#t !" T&a#s.!&tat'!# =M#$DOT> "'&st tested

&a). )ete&s '# +86 Te&e ;e&e a..&!<')ate/ 3-: &a). )ete&s /!cated (ig)re 1 & Ram# meter

+




t&!u(!ut te )et&! a&ea "&ee;a sste) ;'t 3+8 !" te) ce#t&a// c!#t&!//ed =!#9/'#e>, a#d

++ 's!/ated =sta#d9a/!#e$.&e9t')ed> )ete&s 2 u/ -1116 Te #u)2e& !" &a). )ete&s '# eac

ea& 's s!;# '# (&a. +6

(ig)re * & +ariable message signs



Sco#e& Cu&&e#t/, &a). )ete&s )a#a(e access t! a..&!<')ate/ -+1 )'/es !" "&ee;as '# te

T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea6 It c!*e&s a// te "&ee;as ;'t'# te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e a#d )!st !" te

"&ee;as !# a#d !uts'de te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e6

O#eration strategy& Ra). Mete&'#( Sste) !.e&ates du&'#( .ea? t&a""'c .e&'!ds !& ;e#

t&a""'c !& ;eate& c!#d't'!#s ;a&&a#t te'& use6 Te !&'('#a/ )ete&'#( st&ate('es =2e"!&e Oct!2e&

+8, -111> ;e&e u. t! "!u& !u&s '# te )!&#'#( a#d u. t! "'*e !u&s '# te a"te&#!!#6 Sta&t a#d

e#d t')es ;e&e dete&)'#ed 2 c!&&'d!& t&a""'c c!#d't'!#s6

Ra). Mete&s

Ram# Meters ,Nos.-

811

011

311

411

-11

+11

1

1 - :3 :8 1 - 3 8 1 - 3 8 1: : : 1

+ + 1

+ + + + + + + + + + + + + - ear

(ig)re " & N)mber of Ram# Meters in Minnesota

II. +ariable Message Signs

Ob$ecti%e7 Va&'a2/e )essa(e s'(#s a&e de*'ces

'#sta//ed a/!#( te &!ads'de t! d's./a

)essa(es !" s.ec'a/ e*e#ts ;a&#'#( suc as

c!#(est'!#, '#c'de#t, &!ad;!&? !#e !& s.eed

/')'t !# a s.ec'"'c '(;a se()e#t6 Tese

)essa(es a/e&t t&a*e/e&s t! t&a""'c .&!2/e)s

aead a#d e/. .&e*e#t sec!#da& c&ases6

'istory7 Te&e ;e&e 8- VMSs '# !.e&at'!#

'#c/ud'#( 2!t a)2e& LED a#d &!ta& d's./a t.e

s'(#s 2 a#ua& -11+6 Te sta&t9u. dates !"

VMSs (e#e&a// c!'#c'ded ;'t te sta&t9u. dates !" te !#9/'#e )ete&'#( '# tat sa)e "&ee;a se()e#t6

Sco#e& A2!ut 01 !" te 8- VMSs a&e /!cated ;'t'# =a#d !#> te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e6

O#eration strategy7 I#sta#t )essa(es a&e .&!*'ded t! a/e&t t&a*e/e&s t! t&a""'c .&!2/e)s aead6

-




III. 'ig/0ay 'el#er Program

Ob$ecti%e& H'(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) '#te#ds t! )'#')'e c!#(est'!# t&!u( te @u'c? &e)!*a/

!" sta//ed *e'c/es "&!) te "&ee;a, &educe te #u)2e& !" sec!#da& acc'de#ts, ass'st

st&a#ded )!t!&'sts a#d a'd te State Pat&!/ ;'t '#c'de#t )a#a(e)e#t6 It ./as a )a!& &!/e '#

'#c'de#t )a#a(e)e#t '# te T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea6

'istory& H'(;a He/.e& .&!(&a) ;as '#'t'ated '# Dece)2e& +:, a#d add't'!#a/ )'/es ;e&e

added '# Se.te)2e&, +86 Cu&&e#t/ te&e a&e '(;a e/.e& &!utes6

Sco#e& H'(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) .at&!/s e'(t &!utes =+:1 )'/es> '# te T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea6

O#eration strategy& F&!) 0711 AM t! :741 PM M!#da t&!u( F&'da, /')'ted !u&s !# ;ee?e#ds6

I+. 'ig/ Occ)#ancy +e/icle ,'O+- System

Ob$ecti%e& Te .u&.!se !" te HOV Sste) 's t! )!*e )!&e .e!./e '# "e;e& *e'c/es a#d .&!*'de

a @u'c?e&, )!&e &e/'a2/e t&'. "!& t!se ;! &'desa&e !& ta?e te 2us6 A HOV 's a *e'c/e ;'t t;! !&

)!&e .e!./e '# 't6 Va#.!!/s, ca&9.!!/s, 2uses a#d )!t!&cc/es a&e c/ass'"'ed as HOVs6

Sco#e& Te&e a&e + )'/es !" HOV /a#es 999++ )'/es !# I943 HOV La#es a#d : )'/es !# I9

40W HOV La#es 999'# te )et&! a&ea6 Te&e a&e t;! t.es !" HOV /a#es999 C!#cu&&e#t HOV

/a#es a#d Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV /a#e6

(ig)re & I2*3 'O+ 4anes and I2*5W 'O+ 4anes (ig)re 5 & 'O+ 4ane on I2*3

4




Table 1& 'istory and O#eration strategy&

'O+ lane 'istory O#eration strategy

I943 East2!u#d7 "&!) 8711 a6)6 t! +711 .6)6 "!& east !" H; +11, a#d

"&!) 8711 a6)6 t! 711 a6)6 "!& ;est !" H; +11 Ge#e&a/9.u&.!seI943Sta&t u. s'#ce

t&a""'c 's #e*e& a//!;ed '# te 2a&&'e&9se.a&ated /a#es6=Wee?das a#d;ee?e#ds du&'#( Oct!2e& +- I943 West2!u#d7 "&!) 4711 .6)6 t! 8711 .6)6 "!& ;est !" H; +11,s.ec'a/ e*e#ts6> a#d "&!) -711 .6)6 t! )'d#'(t "!& east !" H; +11 Ge#e&a/9.u&.!se

t&a""'c 's #e*e& a//!;ed '# te 2a&&'e&9se.a&ated /a#es6

I940W Sta&t u. s'#ceB!t d'&ect'!#s !.e&ate as HOV /a#es "&!) 8711 a6)6 t! 711 a6)6 a#d"&!) 4711 .6)6 t! 8711 .6)6 !# ;ee?das A// t&a""'c )a use te /a#es

=Wee?das !#/> N!*e)2e& +3at !te& t')es6

*. Regression Analysis

*.1 Abo)t t/e before2and2after st)dy

JBe"!&e a#d a"te&% stud'es !& J;'t a#d ;'t!ut% stud'es a&e .e&a.s te )!st (e#e&a// used )et!ds t!

e*a/uate sste) .e&"!&)a#ce6 But t's )et!d ;'// )eet d'""'cu/t'es ;e# te !2ect !" stud 's a /!#( e<'st'#(

t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)6 F'&st/, 't 's usua// ').!ss'2/e t! 's!/ate te e""ects !" t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t "&!) te

e""ects !" e<te&#a/ *a&'at'!#s+

6 Be"!&e a#d a"te& stud 's .e&suas'*e "!& e*a/uat'!# !" s!&t9&u# ').act u#de&

te c!#d't'!# tat te&e 's #! s'(#'"'ca#t *a&'at'!# '# e<te&#a/ c'&cu)sta#ces, !;e*e&, te e*!/ut'!# !" t&a""'c

)a#a(e)e#t "&!) '#'t'a/'at'!# t! "u// !.e&at'!# usua// c!*e&s decades6 Te e<te&#a/ c'&cu)sta#ces )ust

a*e e<.e&'e#ced (&eat ca#(es a#d 't 's ').!ss'2/e t! se.a&ate "&!) !te& ca#(es a/s! a""ect'#( te

sste)6 Sec!#d/, 't 's @u'te d'""'cu/t t! se.a&ate te e""ects !" !#e )a#a(e)e#t sste) "&!) te e""ects !"

!te& sste)s s'#ce a/)!st a// !" te )a'# "&ee;as a&e u#de& te c!)2'#ed )a#a(e)e#t !" tese sste)s6

T'&d/, te t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste) 'tse/" 's c!#t'#u!us/ '# *a&'at'!#999 #e; "ac'/'t'es a&e (&adua// added '#

a#d s!)e !/d "ac'/'t'es a&e (&adua// &e)!*ed, acc!).a#'#( te ca#(es !" !.e&at'!# st&ate('es6 E*e# '" ;e

ca# "'#d s!)e "&ee;a se()e#t ;'c as sta2/e 2e"!&e a#d a"te& .ases, te /')'ted a#a/s's ;!#%t 2e

&e.&ese#tat'*e "!& te ;!/e sste)6

A "a)!us e<a)./e !" e*a/uat'#( t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste) .e&"!&)a#ce us'#( 2e"!&e a#d a"te& stud 's

te T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea &a). )ete&'#( sut9d!;# stud-

6 Du&'#( te e'(t ;ee?s% &a). )ete&'#(

sste) sut9d!;#, a// !te& t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)s ;e&e '# "u// !.e&at'!#6 Te&e"!&e, te

e""ect'*e#ess !" te &a). )ete&'#( sste) c!u/d 2e e*a/uated 2 c!).a&'#( te sste) .e&"!&)a#ce

2e"!&e a#d du&'#( sut9d!;#6 But suc .e&"ect data ca##!t !"te# 2e !2ta'#ed due t! "'#a#c'a/

c!#s'de&at'!# !& .&act'ca/ c!#ce&#s6 F!& e<a)./e, '# !&de& t! e*a/uate te HOV sste) ').acts !# t&a""'c

"/!; a#d sa"et, M#$DOT ./a##ed t! !.e# te HOV /a#es !# I943 t! (e#e&a/9.u&.!se t&a""'c "!& /')'ted

3




.e&'!d '# -11+ "!& te 2e"!&e a#d a"te& data c!//ect'!#6 H!;e*e&, t's ./a# ;as 2a&&ed 2

FHWA due t! .!/'c c!#s'de&at'!#s6

Te .e&"!&)a#ce e*a/uat'!# !" t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste) ca# .&!*'de ').!&ta#t '#"!&)at'!# "!&

./a##'#( a#d "!& te &at'!#a/'at'!# !" !.e&at'#( 2ud(et a//!cat'!#s6 We !.e t! e<./!&e a s')./e

a#d e""ect'*e a..&!ac "!& t's tas?6 Re(&ess'!# a#a/s's 's .&!)'s'#(6 C!).a&'#( ;'t 2e"!&e a#d

a"te& stud, &e(&ess'!# a#a/s's d!es#%t t& t! des'(# te sta2/e e<te&#a/ c'&cu)sta#ces a#d 's!/ate

te e""ects !" te !2ect '# stud "&!) te e""ects !" c!)2'#'#( "act!&s6 I# "act, 't 's !"te# @u'te d'""'cu/t

!& e*e# ').!ss'2/e t! des'(# !& see? te Jsta2/e% e<te&#a/ c'&cu)sta#ces '# a d#a)'c t&a""'c sste)6

F!& e<a)./e, ;e# ;e e*a/uate e""ects !" t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)s !# '#c'de#t &ate, ;e #eed t!

use se*e&a/ ea&s% data t! (et /a&(e e#!u( sa)./e, '# t's case, 't 's )ea#'#(/ess t! assu)e

u#*a&'ed e<te&#a/ c'&cu)sta#ces+

6 Re(&ess'!# a#a/s's 's d'""e&e#t "&!) 2e"!&e a#d a"te& stud '#

tat 't t&'es t! sea&c !ut a// te .!te#t'a/ e/e)e#ts ='#c/ud'#( t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t> tat e""ect sste)

.e&"!&)a#ce, &ec!&d te'& *a&'at'!# a#d use tese e/e)e#ts as te &e(&ess'!# .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es t!

test te ass!c'at'!# 2et;ee# t&a""'c sste) .e&"!&)a#ce a#d t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t6

*." efine t/e res#onse %ariable of t/e regression model

Pe&"!&)a#ce )easu&e)e#t .&!ceeds 2 'de#t'"'#( a#d @ua#t'"'#( s!)e "eatu&e !" te .e&"!&)a#ce !"

te t&a""'c sste) =suc as t&a*e/ t')e !& acc'de#t &ate> a#d us'#( t's t! '#"e& te .e&"!&)a#ce !" s!)e

.a&t !" te t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)+

6 I# &e(&ess'!# a#a/s's, te )easu&e !" t&a""'c sste)

.e&"!&)a#ce ;'// 2e e)./!ed as te &es.!#se *a&'a2/e, te t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)s ;'// 2e

'#c/uded '# te .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es, a#d te'& .e&"!&)a#ce ;'// 2e '#"e&&ed 2 te'& ass!c'at'!#s ;'t te

&es.!#se *a&'a2/e a#d 2 c!).a&'s!# ;'t te c!e""'c'e#ts !" &e/ated .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es6

Te&e ca# 2e )a# .e&"!&)a#ce )easu&es !" te t&a""'c sste)+1

6 H!;e*e&, a )easu&e

ca# 2e used as te &es.!#se *a&'a2/e !#/ '" 't 's s'(#'"'ca#t/ ass!c'ated ;'t te !.e&at'!#

!2ect'*es !" te t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)s "u&te&)!&e, 't s!u/d 2e st&a'(t"!&;a&d t!

'de#t'" te &e/e*a#t .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es6

S.eed a#d '#c'de#t &ate )eet tese c&'te&'a a#d ;'// 2e used as te &es.!#se *a&'a2/es '# te

"!//!;'#( &e(&ess'!# a#a/s's6 Te &eas!# "!& us'#( s.eed '#stead !" t&a*e/ t')e 's tat te

&e(&ess'!# )!de/ ;'// '#c/ude !2se&*at'!#s "&!) d'""e&e#t c!&&'d!& se()e#ts, t&a*e/ t')e ;'//

.&ese#t #! )!&e '#"!&)at'!# ta# s.eed, 2ut 't ;'// 2e '#"/ue#ced 2 te d'""e&e#ces '# /e#(t !"

te c!&&'d!& se()e#ts6 Actua//, s!)e &e/ated )easu&es, suc as t&a*e/ t')e, de/as, a#d

t&a*e/ t')e &e/'a2'/'t, c!u/d 2e de&'*ed d'&ect/ "&!) s.eed6 S!)e !te& )easu&es, '#c/ud'#(

e#*'&!#)e#ta/ ').acts a#d "ue/ c!#su).t'!#, c!u/d a/s! 2e de&'*ed "&!) s.eed 2 c!)2'#'#(

;'t !te& "act!&s suc as *!/u)e, *e'c/e t.es, a#d (as!/'#e @ua/'t6

0




*.* T/e frame0or6 of an ideal regression model

A# 'dea/ &e(&ess'!# )!de/ 's a )u/t'./e &e(&ess'!# )!de/ ;'c e)./!s a// te &e/e*a#t

e/e)e#ts a""ect'#( sste) .e&"!&)a#ce as 'ts e<./a#at!& *a&'a2/es6 Te &e/e*a#t e/e)e#ts ca#

2e c/ass'"'ed '#t! te "!//!;'#( "!u& cate(!&'es7

1. Infrastr)ct)re c/aracteristics, ;'c '#c/ude ca.ac't, (e!)et&'c st&uctu&e, .a*e)e#t @ua/'t a#d

c!#d't'!#s, (e!(&a.'c ca&acte&'st'cs a#d c!#st&uct'!# act'*'t ').act6 Ca.ac't as s'(#'"'ca#t e""ects !#

s.eed, 2ut deta'/ed '#"!&)at'!# !" ca.ac't 's d'""'cu/t t! !2ta'# "!& eac "&ee;a se()e#t6 I# t's case, te

#u)2e& !" /a#es !" te "&ee;a se()e#t c!u/d 2e used as te '#d'cat'!# !" ca.ac't '" te c!&&'d!&s '# stud a&e

'# te sa)e (&ade9/e*e/, e6(6, a// a&e '#te&state "&ee;as6 Ge!)et&'c st&uctu&e '#c/udes te e/e)e#ts !"

!&'!#ta/ a#d *e&t'ca/ cu&*atu&e, s'(t d'sta#ce a#d te d'sta#ce 2et;ee# e#t&a#ce a#d e<'t '# te sa)e

se()e#t. Pa*e)e#t @ua/'t ca# 2e (!!d, #!&)a/, a#d .!!& .a*e)e#t c!#d't'!#s ca# 2e d&, ;et,

!& s#!; c!*e&ed -6 Te (e!(&a.'c ca&acte&'st'cs !" "&ee;as '# te T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea

ca# 2e c/ass'"'ed '#t! "!u& (&!u.s7 te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e "&ee;a, '#te&c't c!##ect!&, &ad'a/

"&ee;a ;'t'# te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e, a#d &ad'a/ "&ee;a !uts'de te 2e/t/'#e-

6

". Traffic c/aracteristics7 ;'c '#c/ude t&a""'c *!/u)e, de#s't, *e'c/e "/eet c!).!s't'!#, a#d

/e*e/ !" se&*'ce6 Ve'c/e "/eet c!).!s't'!# '#c/udes .asse#(e& ca& a#d "&e'(t t&uc?, ea*

t&uc? "/eet as s'(#'"'ca#t ').act !# "&ee;a ca.ac't a#d s.eed6

*. Traffic Management Strategies, ;'c '#c/ude Ra). Mete&'#( Sste), Va&'a2/e Messa(e

S'(#s, H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a), H'( Occu.a#c Ve'c/e =HOV> Sste), a#d s!)e !te&

t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t st&ate('es suc as T&a*e/e& I#"!&)at'!# P&!(&a)6

. Ot/er factors, ;'c '#c/ude t&a""'c '#c'de#t ').act a#d ;eate& ').act6

(ig)re 8 s!;s te "&a)e;!&? !" te 'dea/ &e(&ess'!# )!de/6

*. 4imitations of Regression analysis

We# 2e"!&e a#d a"te& 's ').!ss'2/e !& t!! c!st/, &e(&ess'!# a#a/s's ca# 2e a (!!d su2st'tute6 But

&e(&ess'!# a#a/s's ca#%t !2ta'# a// te '#"!&)at'!# ;e #eed t! ?#!; a2!ut te t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)6 F!&

e<a)./e, &e(&ess'!# a#a/s's ust te//s us te ass!c'at'!# 2et;ee# &a). )ete&'#( a#d sste) )a'#/'#e s.eed,

't ca#%t te// us ;ete& te t&a*e/ t')e sa*'#( caused 2 &a). )ete&'#( sste) ='" a#> !# te )a'#/'#e c!u/d

!""set &a). de/a6 It a/s! ca#%t te// us ;ete& te .e&s!#9!u&s '#c&ease !# (e#e&a/9.u&.!se /a#es ='" a#>

c!u/d 2e !""set 2 te .e&s!#9!u&s dec&ease !# HOV /a#es6 C!#se@ue#t/, &e(&ess'!# a#a/s's ca# 2e a

s')./e a#d e""ect'*e &esea&c )et!d "!& test'#( te )ac&!sc!.'c ass!c'at'!# !& t&e#d 2et;ee# t&a""'c

)a#a(e)e#t a#d t&a""'c sste) .e&"!&)a#ce !;e*e&, t! !2ta'# a# !*e&a// e*a/uat'!# !" eac !" te t&a""'c

)a#a(e)e#t sste)s, add't'!#a/ &esea&c 's st'// #ecessa&6

8




(ig)re 8 & T/e frame0or6 of an ideal regression model

Res#onse+ariable

Predictor +ariables

S.eed

!&

I#c'de#t Rate

I#"&ast&uctu&e

Ca&acte&'st'c

T&a""'c

Ca&acte&'st'c

T&a""'c

Ma#a(e)e#tSt&ate('es

Ote&

"act!&s

Ca.ac't

Ge!)et&'c st&uctu&e

Pa*e)e#t @ua/'t c!#d't'!#s

Ge!(&a.'c ca&acte&'st'cs

C!#st&uct'!# act'*'t ').act

T&a""'c *!/u)e !& de#s't

Ve'c/e "/eet c!).!s't'!#

Le*e/ !" se&*'ce

Ra). Mete&'#( Sste)

Va&'a2/e Messa(e S'(#s

H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a)

H'( Occu.a#c Ve'c/e Sste)

Ote& t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t

T&a""'c I#c'de#t I).act=We# us'#( s.eed as &es.!#se *a&'a2/e>

Weate& Va&'at'!#s



:




. !ase st)dy I & Using lin6 s#eed as res#onse %ariable

.1 Regression Model

1. Predictor %ariables&

It s!u/d 2e )e#t'!#ed "'&st/ tat due t! te /')'tat'!# !" data, ;e a&e #!t a2/e t! test a// te .!te#t'a/

.&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es desc&'2ed '# te 'dea/ &e(&ess'!# )!de/, t's 's a de"'c'e#c !" t's case stud6

F!& '#"&ast&uctu&e ca&acte&'st'cs, ;e used ca.ac't =#u)2e& !" /a#es> "!& t&a""'c

ca&acte&'st'cs, ;e used de#s't "!& t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t st&ate('es, ;e tested Ra). Mete&'#(

Sste), Va&'a2/e Messa(e S'(#s, H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a), a#d H'( Occu.a#c Ve'c/e

=HOV> Sste) a#d "!& !te& "act!&s, ;e used t&a""'c '#c'de#t ').act6We a/s! added -- c!&&'d!& du))'es, ;'c c/ass'"'ed te !2se&*at'!#s '#t! -- c!&&'d!& (&!u.s6 Eac (&!u. as

'ts d'st'#ct'*e t&a""'c, '#"&ast&uctu&e, a#d s.at'a/ ca&acte&'st'cs6 Te c!&&'d!& du)) ass'(#ed t! eac

!2se&*at'!# ca# 2e *'e;ed as !#e Jatt&'2ute% ust /'?e te J#u)2e& !" /a#es%6 As a# e<a)./e, c!).a&'#( ;'t I9

33 NB SB 2e/t/'#e c!&&'d!&s ;'c ca&& t&a""'c "&!) su2u&2 t! su2u&2, I93 '#te&c't c!##ect!&s c&!ss )a!&

c!))e&c'a/ !#es a#d te a*e '(e& '#te&sect'!# de#s't =!& e#t&a#ce e<'t de#s't>6 G'*e# te sa)e

)a'#/'#e de#s't, I93 '#te&c't c!##ect!&s s!u/d 2e s/!;e& ta# I933 NB SB 2e/t/'#e "&ee;as due t! )!&e

e#te&'#( a#d e<'t'#( d'stu&2a#ce6 As a#!te& e<a)./e, I940W c!&&'d!&s =s!ut !" I933> a*e '(e& .e&ce#ta(e

!" ea* c!))e&c'a/ t&a""'c ta# I940E c!&&'d!&s =#!&t !" I93>6 S'#ce ea* c!))e&c'a/ "/!;s a*e s'(#'"'ca#t').acts !# "&ee;a ca.ac't, !/d'#( !te& c!#d't'!#s "'<ed, ;e ;!u/d e<.ect I940W c!&&'d!&s t! s/!;e& ta# I9

40E c!&&'d!&s6

F'#a//, ;e d!#%t &u/e !ut te .!ss'2'/'t tat te add't'!# !" !te& .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es ;'//

ca#(e te &esu/ts6

". etect m)lticollinearity

S'#ce ;e "ace a )u/t'./e &e(&ess'!# .&!2/e), ;e s!u/d use te c!&&e/at'!# )at&'< t! detect te .!ss'2/e

)u/t'c!//'#ea&'t6 Mu/t'c!//'#ea&'t 's /'?e/ t! e<'st 2et;ee# de#s't a#d te TMS du))'es6 It 's assu)ed tat

)u/t'c!//'#ea&'t ;'// 2e d'a(#!sed t! 2e .&ese#t '" te a2s!/ute *a/ue !" te c!&&e/at'!# 2et;ee# t;! .&ed'ct!&

*a&'a2/es 's /a&(e& ta# 168, !te&;'se #! )u/t'c!//'#ea&'t6 F&!) te c!&&e/at'!# )at&'<es

=A..e#d'< 4> ;e (et t! ?#!; tat eac c!&&e/at'!# 's /ess ta# 168, te&e"!&e, #! )u/t'c!//'#ea&'t e<'sts 2et;ee#

de#s't a#d te TMS du))'es6 Wat s!u/d 2e #!ted 's te /!; c!&&e/at'!# 2et;ee# &a). )ete&'#( a#d

)a'#/'#e de#s't6 I# .&act'ce, .e!./e te#d t! '#"/ate te c!&&e/at'!# 2et;ee# &a). )ete&'#( a#d )a'#/'#e de#s't6

It 's !"te# t!u(t t! 2e t&ue tat a se()e#t c!#t&!//ed 2 &a). )ete&'#( ;'// a*e




&e/at'*e/ /!;e& de#s't ta# a se()e#t ;'t!ut )ete&'#(6 But actua// !2*'!us /'#ea&

&e/at'!#s'. 2et;ee# &a). )ete&'#( a#d )a'#/'#e de#s't ca#%t 2e "!u#d "&!) !u& data6 Te

&eas!# s!u/d 2e tat de#s't 's suc a c!)./e< )easu&e)e#t ;'c 's ass!c'ated ;'t )a#

"act!&s, a#d &a). )ete&'#( 's ust !#e !" te)6

O# te !te& a#d, &a). )ete&'#( a""ects )a'#/'#e s.eed t&!u( #!t !#/ )a'#/'#e de#s't 2ut a/s!

!te& t&a""'c "act!&s suc as d&'*e&s% 2ea*'!&s6 We# &a). ca&s t& t! )e&(e '#t! te )a'#/'#e,

)a'#/'#e d&'*e&s usua// a*e t! s/!; d!;# !& e*e# tu&# as'de t! /et te) '#6 Tat 's, &a). ca&s ;'//

L+ L4



a*e ').acts t! )a'#/'#e d&'*e&s% 2ea*'!&s e*e# '" te'& )e&('#( d!es#%t cause s'(#'"'ca#t '#c&ease

'# )a'#/'#e de#s't6 =T! (et a# '#tu't'*e u#de&sta#d'#( a2!ut t's ust t'#? tat e*e# ;e# te )'dd/e

/a#e as te sa)e de#s't as te &'(t /a#e, te )'dd/e /a#e 's t.'ca// "aste& ta# &'(t /a#e

2ecause te &'(t /a#e as t! susta'# te ').acts !" )e&('#(=a#d e<'t'#(> ca&s>6 U#de& &a).

)ete&'#( c!#t&!/, &a). ca&s e#te& te "&ee;a '# a s.aced a#d c!#t&!//ed )a##e&6 E*e# '# te case

tat &a). )ete&'#( d!es#%t s'(#'"'ca#t/ dec&ease )a'#/'#e de#s't, 'ts e""ects '# c!#t&!//'#( )e&('#(

d's&u.t'!# t! )a'#/'#e t&a""'c ;'// /ead t! )a'#/'#e s.eed '#c&ease6

*. Model e9#ression

Model 1. Incident2free case

H!u&/ a*e&a(e s.eed 1 D⋅ De#s't TMT+⋅ Ra). Mete& =+,1> TMT-⋅ VMS =+,1>

TMT4⋅ C!#cu&&e#t HOV =+,1> TMT3⋅ Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV =+,1> L+⋅ T;!9La#e =+,1> L-⋅

T&ee9La#e =+,1> L4⋅ F!u&9La#e =+,1> C+C-- C!&&'d!& du))'es ε

We&e,ß D '#d'cates te c!e""'c'e#t !" !u&/ a*e&a(e de#s't

ß TMT+ TMT3 '#d'cate te c!e""'c'e#ts !" Ra). Mete& Du)), VMS Du)), C!#cu&&e#t HOV Du)),

a#d Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV Du)) '#d'cate te c!e""'c'e#ts !" te #u)2e& !" /a#es99 t;!9La#e, t&ee9La#e, a#d "!u&9La#e

C+C--'#d'cate te c!e""'c'e#ts !" te -- c!&&'d!&s ;e se/ected "!& t's stud =&e"e& t! 364 C!&&'d!&

se/ect'!# a#d stud .e&'!ds>6

Model ". Incident case

H!u&/ a*e&a(e s.eed 1 D De#s't TMT+ Ra). Mete& =+,1> TMT- VMS =+,1>

TMT4 H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a) =+,1> TMT3 C!#cu&&e#t HOV =+,1> TMT0 Ba&&'e&9

se.a&ated HOV =+,1> L+T;!9La#e =+,1> L- T&ee9La#e =+,1> L4 F!u&9La#e =+,1>

I+I0 I#c'de#tQ C+C-- C!&&'d!& du))'es ε




We&e,

I+I0 '#d'cate te c!e""'c'e#ts !" te "'*e '#c'de#t (&!u.s I#c'de#tQ '#d'cates te "!//!;'#( "'*e

(&!u.s7 I#c'de#t+ 99te '#c'de#t !ccu&&ed ;'t'# te stud'ed se()e#t

I#c'de#t- 99te '#c'de#t !ccu&&ed '# te "'&st se()e#t u.st&ea) te stud'ed se()e#t I#c'de#t4

99te '#c'de#t !ccu&&ed '# te sec!#d se()e#t u.st&ea) te stud'ed se()e#t I#c'de#t3 99te

'#c'de#t !ccu&&ed '# te "'&st se()e#t d!;#st&ea) te stud'ed se()e#t I#c'de#t0 99te

'#c'de#t !ccu&&ed '# te sec!#d se()e#t d!;#st&ea) te stud'ed se()e#t

N!tes7

+6 H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a) 's #!t '#c/uded '# te '#c'de#t9"&ee case 2ecause ;e# te stud'ed

se()e#ts a&e '#c'de#t9"&ee, H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a) as #! e""ects t! te se()e#ts

-6Ra). Mete&'#( Du)), H'(;a He/.e& Du)), VMS Du)), C!#cu&&e#t HOV

Du)), a#d Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV Du)) a&e de"'#ed as "!//!;s7

Ra). Mete&+ '" te se()e#t 's u#de& &a). )ete&'#( c!#t&!/ !te&;'se, Ra). Mete&16

VMS+ '" te se()e#t 's ;'t'# te ').act'#( &a#(e !" VMS !te&;'se, VMS16

H'(;a He/.e& + '" te se()e#t 's ;'t'# '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) .at&!/ a&ea !te&;'se,

H'(;a He/.e& 16

HOV+ '" te c!&&'d!& as HOV /a#e=s> '# !.e&at'!# !te&;'se, HOV16

." Meas)re s#eed and density )sing loo# detector data

1. Meas)ring s#eed in one /o)r:s inter%al

L!!. detect!&s .&!*'de "&ee;a *!/u)e a#d !ccu.a#c '#"!&)at'!# '# 419sec!#d '#te&*a/s6 Te

data9e<t&act'#( .&!(&a) DataE<t&act'!# TMC, ;'c 's de*e/!.ed 2 MN$DOT TMC, ;as used

"!& e<t&act'#( a#d "!&)att'#( "&ee;a /!!. detect!&s data6 V!/u)e Qi a#d !ccu.a#c K i '# 09

)'#ute '#te&*a/s ;e&e e<t&acted us'#( t's .&!(&a)6

Te )et!d !" )easu&'#( /'#? s.eed 2ased !# *!/u)e Qi a#d !ccu.a#c K i 's e<./a'#ed as "!//!;s7

A Detect!& B

Le

Te detect!& sta&ts t! 2e &ead as J!ccu.'ed% !#ce te "&!#t ;ee/s !" a *e'c/e &eac .!'#t A a#d te

J!ccu.'ed% status e#ds ;e# te 2ac? ;ee/ !" te *e'c/e &eaces .!'#t B6 Du&'#( t's J!ccu.'ed% .e&'!d,

te *e'c/e actua// .asses a d'sta#ce !" l e, ;'c 's usua// ca//ed te e""ect'*e *e'c/e /e#(t6 Te

a*e&a(e e""ect'*e *e'c/e /e#(t 's ta?e# as -- "t '# t's stud6 I# a 09)'#ute '#te&*a/, Qi *e'c/es .ass te

+1




detect!&, te&e"!&e, te t!ta/ d'sta#ce d&'*e# 2 tese Qi *e'c/es s!u/d 2e Qi ⋅ l e$0-1 =)'/e>6

Fu&te&)!&e, te detect!& 's !ccu.'ed "!& K i => .e&ce#t !" 0 )'#utes% t')e, tat )ea#s te t!ta/

t')e actua// used "!& t&a*e/'#( '# a 09)'#ute '#te&*a/ s!u/d 2e 411⋅K i $+11 =sec>6 Te&e"!&e ;e

ca# !2ta'# te s.ace )ea# s.eed us du&'#( a 09)'#ute '#te&*a/ as "!//!;s0

7

s = total distance = 3600 100 Qi le (mile / hr ) (1)u

total time 5280 300 K i

We&e7

S.ace )ea# s.eed !" !#e detect!& '# 09)'#ute '#te&*a/s =)'/e$&>us

l e E""ect'*e *e'c/e /e#(t ="t>

Qi a#d K i V!/u)e a#d !ccu.a#c !" !#e detect!& '# 09)'#ute '#te&*a/s

us 's te s.ace )ea# s.eed "!& !#e /a#e '# 09)'#ute '#te&*a/s6 F&ee;a se()e#ts a*e - t! 0 /a#es6

S.ace )ea# s.eed "!& !#e se()e#t 's est')ated us'#( te ;e'(ted )ea# s.eed =;e'(ted 2*!/u)e> !" a// /a#es6 Te s.ace )ea# s.eed "!& a t&ee9/a#e se()e#t 's as "!//!;s7

= Q 1us , Q 1 +

Q 2 u s , Q 2

+

Q 3 us, Q 3 (2)

us,Q

Q1 + Q2 + Q3

S.ace )ea# s.eed "!& !#e se()e#t '# !#e !u&%s '#te&*a/ 's te a&'t)et'c )ea# !" te t;e/*e

09)'#ute s.eeds !" t's se()e#t '# !#e !u&6

It s!u/d 2e #!ted tat ;e# te /!!. detect!&s &ead t! 2e J1% "!& !ccu.a#c, te ca/cu/ated s.eed

;'// a*e '#*a/'d #u)2e& a#d te !2se&*at'!# ;'// 2e &e)!*ed6 L!!. detect!&s &ead J1% "!& !ccu.a#c

'# t;! c!#d't'!#s7 +6 L!!. detect!&s )a/"u#ct'!# -6 It a..e#s t! a*e #! *e'c/es .ass'#( 2

du&'#( te c!u#t'#( .e&'!d6 U#de& c!#d't'!# +, te !ccu.a#c ;'// c!#t'#ue t! 2e 1 "!& se*e&a/ !u&s

!& e*e# das u#de& c!#d't'!# -, te !ccu.a#c ;'// 2e 1 "!& at /east 0 )'#utes =2ecause te *!/u)e

a#d !ccu.a#c data ;e&e e<t&acted '# 09)'#ute '#te&*a/s '# t's stud6>6 We# c!#d't'!# - a..e#s,

te !2se&*at'!#s ;'t &e/at'*e/ /!; a*e&a(e !u&/ s.eeds a&e &e)!*ed6 T's )'(t /ead t! s!)e

2'as '# te &e(&ess'!# &esu/t6 But s'#ce te "!u& !u&s '# stud =:711AM711AM, 711AM

711AM, 3711PM0711PM a#d 0711PM8711PM> a&e a// .ea? !u&s, c!#d't'!# - a..e#s ;'t

@u'te /!; .&!2a2'/'t, a#d 'ts '#"/ue#ce !# te "'#a/ &esu/t ;'// 2e s/'(t6

". Meas)ring density in one /o)r:s inter%al

Te e@uat'!# + ca# 2e &e;&'tte# as "!//!;s7

Q le q le

100 Q le 300 5280 5280 (3)

us = 5280 300 occupancy = occupancy =occupancy (mile / s)

100 100

++




te#, de#s't ca# 2e ca/cu/ated as "!//!;s7

occupancy

k =

q

=

q

=

100 (4)

(veh / mile)s

le

leu q

5280 5280

occupancy

100

E""ect'*e *e'c/e /e#(t l e 's assu)ed t! 2e -- "eet, a#d te de#s't k ;'// 2e e@ua/ t!7

occupancy

k =

100

=

5280

occupancy = 2.4 occupancy(veh / mile)()

22 100 22

5280

Te de#s't k est')ated us'#( e@uat'!# 0 's te a*e&a(e de#s't "!& !#e /a#e '# 09)'#ute '#te&*a/s6 Te a*e&a(e

de#s't !" !#e se()e#t 's te a&'t)et'c )ea# !" te de#s't'es !" a// /a#es6 Fu&te&)!&e, te a*e&a(e de#s't !"

!#e se()e#t '# !#e !u&%s '#te&*a/ 's te a&'t)et'c )ea# !" te t;e/*e 09)'#ute de#s't'es !" t's se()e#t '#

!#e !u&6 Te u#'t !" se()e#t de#s't 's *e'c/es .e& )'/e, .e& /a#e6

.* !orridor selection and st)dy #eriods

1. !orridor selection

T!ta// -- c!&&'d!&s ;e&e se/ected "!& t's stud 2ased !# te "!//!;'#( t;! &u/es7

I6 Te se/ected c!&&'d!&s s!u/d "!&) a (e!(&a.'ca// &e.&ese#tat'*e sa)./e !" te e#t'&e sste)6

Based !# te (e!(&a.'c ca&acte&'st'cs, te "&ee;a c!&&'d!&s ;'t'# te T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea

ca# 2e c/ass'"'ed '#t! te "!//!;'#( "!u& t.es7 te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e "&ee;a, '#te&c't c!##ect!&,

&ad'a/ "&ee;a ;'t'# te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e, a#d &ad'a/ "&ee;a !uts'de te 2e/t/'#e

-6 Te -- se/ected c!&&'d!&s c!*e&ed tese "!u& t.es =&e"e& t! A..e#d'< + a#d - >6

II6 Te se/ected c!&&'d!&s s!u/d '#c/ude se()e#ts ;'t a#d ;'t!ut &a). )ete&s, ;'t a#d

;'t!ut VMS, ;'t a#d ;'t!ut '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a), a#d ;'t a#d ;'t!ut HOV /a#es

=&e"e& t! Ta2/e ->6

".St)dy #eriods

Stud .e&'!ds &a#(e "&!) + t! -111, ;'c '#c/udes te .e&'!ds 2e"!&e &a). )ete& sta&t9u., &a). )ete&

'# "u// !.e&at'!#, a#d &a). )ete& e'(t ;ee?s% sut9d!;# '# -111 2e"!&e VMS sta&t9u. a#d VMS '# "u//

!.e&at'!# '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) '# "u// !.e&at'!# a#d HOV sste) '# "u// !.e&at'!#6

It 's #!ted tat #! J2e"!&e% data a&e '#c/uded "!& '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) a#d HOV sste)6 Te &eas!# 's tat

te sta&t9u. dates !" I43 HOV /a#es a#d I940W HOV /a#es a&e '# +- a#d +3 &es.ect'*e/, 2ut #! /!!.

detect!& data a&e a*a'/a2/e 2e"!&e +36 As t! te '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a), te '#'t'a/ .at&!/

+-




&!utes sta&ted '# Dece)2e& +:, a#d add't'!#a/ &!utes ;e&e added "&!) Se.te)2e&, +8, te

J2e"!&e% data c!u/d 2e !2ta'#ed "!& te add't'!#a/ &!utes6 H!;e*e&, a/t!u( /!!. detect!& data

;e&e a*a'/a2/e "&!) +3, te ;e&e '#su""'c'e#t 2e"!&e +86 Fu&te&)!&e, t&ee ea&s a/&ead

"!&) a /!#( stud .e&'!d6 Te /!#(e& te .e&'!d, te )!&e *a&'at'!#s a#d "/uctuat'!#s

e<.e&'e#ced '# te #et;!&?, ;'c ;'// s'(#'"'ca#t/ a""ect te &e(&ess'!# &esu/t6 C!#se@ue#t/,

;e d'd#%t '#c/ude te 2e"!&e data !" te add't'!#a/ &!utes !" '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) '# te

data2ase6 Te stud .e&'!ds a#d c!&&'d!& se/ect'!# a&e su))a&'ed '# Ta2/e -7

Table " & !orridor selection and st)dy #eriods

Ram# Meter +MS 'ig/0ay 'el#er #rogram 'O+ lanes

C!&&'d!&s ;'t Ra). C!&&'d!&s ;'t C!&&'d!&s ;'t H'(;a C!&&'d!&s ;'t

!orridor HOV /a#es

Mete&s =RM+> VMS =VMS+> He/.e& =H'(;a He/.e&+> =HOV+>

Selection C!&&'d!&s ;'t!ut C!&&'d!&s ;'t!ut C!&&'d!&s ;'t!ut H'(;a C!&&'d!&s

Ra). Mete&s =RM1> VMS =VMS1> He/.e& =H'(;a He/.e&1> ;'t!ut HOV /a#es=HOV1>

Be"!&e RM sta&t9u.

=RM1> Be"!&e VMS sta&t9

St)dy RM '# "u// !.e&at'!# H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a) '# HOV /a#es '# "u//

u. =VMS1>=RM+> "u// !.e&at'!# =H'(;a !.e&at'!#

#eriods VMS '# "u// RM e'(t ;ee?s% He/.e&+> =HOV+>

!.e&at'!# =VMS+>sut9d!;# '# -111

=RM1>

I# add't'!#, te "!//!;'#( c&'te&'a a&e a../'ed "!& data c!//ect'!#7

+6 Sa)./es a&e (ate&ed !# t.'ca/ ;!&?das =Tuesda, Wed#esda, a#d Tu&sda>6

M!#da a#d F&'da a&e a*!'ded

-6 H!/'das a&e a*!'ded

46 A (a. 2et;ee# te 2e"!&e9a"te& .e&'!ds 's ta?e# t! .e&)'t te .u2/'c t! 2ec!)e accust!)ed t!

te #e; ').&!*e)e#t 2e"!&e a cec? !# 'ts e""ect 's 2e(u#

6 Te /e#(t !" (a.s &a#(e

"&!) 41 t! 1 das '# +6 Due t! te /')'ted #!&)a/ /!!. detect!& data, te /e#(t !"

(a.s '# + &a#(e "&!) +1 t! -1 das6

.Res)lts and analysis&

Te stat'st'ca/ s!"t;a&e STATA ;as used "!& te stud6 Resu/ts ;e&e !2ta'#ed "!& "!u& .ea?

!u&s 99 :711AM711AM, 711AM711AM, 3711PM0711PM, a#d 0711PM8711PM u#de&

2!t '#c'de#t9"&ee a#d '#c'de#t cases6 A// te t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)s a&e '# !.e&at'!# '#

tese "!u& !u&s6 Te &e(&ess'!# &esu/ts a&e su))a&'ed '# Ta2/e 46 N!te7 deta'/ed &e(&ess'!#

&esu/ts !" case stud I a&e '# A..e#d'< 89+46

+4




Table * & S)mmary of regression res)lts

I#c'de#t9"&ee

:711AM 711AM 3711PM 0711PM

711AM 711AM 0711PM 8711PM

Nu)2e& !" !2se&*at'!#s 141 4:

R9s@ua&ed 16384 16383 16018 1681-8

Adusted R9s@ua&ed 1638-4 1638: 160:4 1681+3

F *a/ueF= -:, 81> F= -:, 11-> F= -:, 1> F= -:, 81>

-:6+4 -36 3086:4 3:603

P&!2 F 161111 161111 161111 161111

I#c'de#t:711AM 711AM 3711PM 0711PM

711AM 711AM 0711PM 8711PM

Nu)2e& !" !2se&*at'!#s 480 4:1 4: 3-8

R9s@ua&ed 16:4+0 16:00: 16:00 16811

Adusted R9s@ua&ed 16:10: 16:444 16:44 16884

F *a/ueF= 4-, 44-> F= 4+, 44> F= 4-, 403> F= 44, 4->

-6-: 446:- 436-0 -8633

P&!2 F 161111 161111 161111 161111

Te R9s@ua&ed *a/ues su((est tat s.eed 's a c!)./e< .e#!)e#!# !" ;'c ;e !#/ e<./a'#

a2!ut a/" "!& te '#c'de#t9 "&ee case a#d a2!ut se*e#t .e&ce#t "!& te '#c'de#t case6 But te

a#a/s's 's 2ased !# t&ee ea&s% sste);'de data a#d te #u)2e& !" !2se&*at'!#s "!&

'#c'de#t9"&ee case 's tat u(e, ;e a*e t! sa tat te &esu/ts a&e &ea// #!t 2ad6 Te

&e(&ess'!# &esu/ts !" de#s't a#d te TMSs a&e su))a&'ed '# Ta2/e 37Table & T/e regression res)lts of density and t/e TMSs.

I#c'de#t9"&ee

:711AM711AM 711AM711AM 3711PM0711PM 0711PM8711PM

C!e""'c'e#P9*a/ue

C!e""'c'e#P9*a/ue

C!e""'c'e#P9*a/ue

C!e""'c'e#P9*a/ue

t D t D t D t D

De#s't 96-0-101: 16111 =S> 96-01:33 16111=S> 96-8+:48: 16111=S> 9641+-00 16111=S>

RM 36-+ 16111=S> -64-01+ 16111=S> 464+:8 16111=S> 361-- 16111=S>

VMS 9-6:1480- 16111=S> 9-6:80-+ 16111=S> 946++040 16111=S> 9464-+1: 16111=S>

C!#6 HOV 9-6188+ 16111=S> 9+363::: 16111=S> 9--613:30 16111=S> 968-+-33 16111=S>

Ba&6 HOV 9486-:0: 16111=S> 9+:6+:4 16111=S> 9-:6438: 16111=S> 9+:603113 16111=S>

I#c'de#t

:711AM711AM 711AM711AM 3711PM0711PM 0711PM8711PM

C!e""'c'e#P9*a/ue

C!e""'c'e#P9*a/ue

C!e""'c'e#P9*a/ue

C!e""'c'e#P9*a/ue

t D t D t D t D

De#s't 96:0+44: 16111 =S> 960+813 16111 =S> 9601-883: 16111 =S> 96388- 16111 =S>

H'(;a He/.e& ++634+0 161+0 =S> 6-03+ 161: =S> 630430 1641 =NS> 9+6084 16++ =NS>

RM -643+ 16+0-=NS> 9641883- 163 =NS> 36+1+8-- 16103 =S> 86031+3 161+1 =S>

VMS 9-6+-3: 161-=S> 946-338+- 161++=S> 9064801 16111 =S> 946:0-34 161+1 =S>

+3




!ote" S###Significant$ !S###!onsignificant% T&e le'el of significance is %1 in t&is st*y%

De#s't 's a# ').!&ta#t &e"e&e#t ;'c e/.s us u#de&sta#d te e<te#t !" e""ects !" te t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t

sste)s !# s.eed, "!& e<a)./e, '# te '#c'de#t9"&ee case, c!).a&'#( te c!e""'c'e#t !" &a). )ete& du))

=:711AM711AM> ;'t te c!e""'c'e#t !" de#s't =:711AM711AM> ('*es us a# 'dea tat te e""ect !" !#e

&a). )ete& !# )a'#/'#e s.eed 's a..&!<')ate/ e@ua/ t! dec&eas'#( 81 *e'c/es .e& )'/e !# a t&ee9/a#e

"&ee;a se()e#t6 Te est')ate "!& D 's #e(at'*e a#d s'(#'"'ca#t "!& 2!t '#c'de#t9"&ee a#d '#c'de#t cases,

'#d'cat'#( a #e(at'*e &e/at'!#s'. 2et;ee# s.eed a#d de#s't, e6(6, ;e# D 's est')ated t! 2e 916-0

=:711AM711AM, '#c'de#t9"&ee>, te de#s't '#c&eases 2 !#e u#'t =*e$)'/e, /a#e> ;'// /ead t!

te /'#? s.eed dec&ease 2 16-0 )'/e$&, assu)'#( tat te !te& te&)s a&e e/d "'<ed6

Te "!//!;'#( a#a/es te &e(&ess'!# &esu/ts !" te TMSs "!& 2!t '#c'de#t9"&ee a#d '#c'de#t cases6

I. Ram# Metering System&

F!& '#c'de#t9"&ee case, te est')ates "!& &a). )ete& du)) a&e .!s't'*e a#d s'(#'"'ca#t '# a// te "!u&

!u&s, '#d'cat'#( tat te !.e&at'!# !" &a). )ete&'#( sste) '#c&eases )a'#/'#e s.eed6 T's &esu/t

acc!&ds ;'t .&e*'!us stud'es6 Te -11+ T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea Ra). Mete& Stud =2 Ca)2&'d(e

Sste)at'cs>-

s!;ed tat !# a*e&a(e, '# te a2se#ce !" )ete&'#(, "&ee;a s.eeds dec&eased 2

a..&!<')ate/ : )'/es .e& !u& '# te .ea? .e&'!d a#d 2 + )'/es .e& !u& du&'#( te .ea? !u&6 T's

&esu/t 's 2ased !# te e'(t ;ee?s% &a). )ete&'#( sste) sut9d!;# data, ;'/e !u& stud 's 2ased !#

t&ee ea&s% data ='#c/ud'#( .&e*'!us t! &a). )ete& sta&t9u. .e&'!d, &a). )ete& '# "u// !.e&at'!# .e&'!d,

a#d &a). )ete& e'(t ;ee?s% sut9d!;# .e&'!d>, s! te /!#( &u# t&e#d ;as est')ated6

Te &e(&ess'!# &esu/t ca# 2e e<./a'#ed as 2e/!;7 '" ;e a*e t;! c!&&'d!& se()e#ts ;'t a//

ca&acte&'st'cs te sa)e, e<ce.t tat !#e as &a). )ete&'#( a#d te !te& d!es#%t, ;e ;!u/d

e<.ect te c!&&'d!& se()e#t ;'t &a). )ete&'#( t! 2e 36 )'/e$& =:711AM711AM> "aste&

ta# te c!&&'d!& se()e#t ;'t!ut &a). )ete&'#(6

It s!u/d 2e #!ted tat te *a/ue !" te &a). )ete&'#( du)) c!e""'c'e#t 's a Jc!#se&*at'*e% est')ate, tat 's,

t's *a/ue s!u/d 2e /ess ta# te "u// e""ects !" &a). )ete&'#( !# )a'#/'#e s.eed6 As ;e d'scussed '# 36+6-,

&a). )ete&'#( a""ects )a'#/'#e s.eed t&!u( 2!t )a'#/'#e de#s't a#d d&'*e&s% 2ea*'!&s6 Te .a&t !" &a).

)ete&'#(%s e""ects !# c!#t&!//'#( )a'#/'#e de#s't ;as #!t e<./a'#ed 2 te &a). )ete&'#( du))6 Te actua//

e""ects !" &a). )ete&'#( s!u/d 2e e*e# 2'((e&6

F!& '#c'de#t case, - !" te 3 est')ates !" &a). )ete& du)) a&e '#s'(#'"'ca#t, ;'c '#d'cates

tat !/d'#( te !te& te&)s "'<ed, c!&&'d!& se()e#ts ;'t &a). )ete&'#( a&e #!t #ecessa&'/

"aste& =!& s/!;e&> ta# c!&&'d!& se()e#ts ;'t!ut &a). )ete&'#( '# !te& ;!&ds, te e""ects !"

te &a). )ete&'#( '# '#c&eas'#( )a'#/'#e s.eed ;!#%t a/;as !""set te '#c'de#t '#"/ue#ces6

+0




II. +ariable message signs&

It s!u/d 2e )e#t'!#ed "'&st/ tat d'""e&e#t "&!) Ra). Mete&'#( sste) a#d HOV sste), ;'c

2!t a*e &e/at'*e/ "'<ed !.e&at'!#a/ !u&s, VMS 's act'*e !#/ ;e# Js.ec'a/ e*e#ts% a..e#6 But 't

's ').!ss'2/e "!& us t! !2ta'# te deta'/ed sta&t'#( t')e a#d du&at'!# !" tese VMS )essa(es6

Te&e"!&e, ;e ad t! de"'#e te VMS du)) as J+% '" te stud'ed c!&&'d!& se()e#t 's ;'t'# te

').act'#( &a#(e !" VMS6 Te ').act'#( &a#(e !" VMS 's de"'#ed as te se()e#ts tat ca# Jsee% te

VMS )essa(es a#d te - t! 4 se()e#ts d!;#st&ea) te VMS6 Te&e"!&e, ;at ;e est')ate e&e

's actua// te ass!c'at'!# 2et;ee# s.eed a#d VMS ').act'#( &a#(e6

F!& 2!t '#c'de#t9"&ee case a#d '#c'de#t case, te est')ates "!& VMS du)) a&e #e(at'*e a#d

s'(#'"'ca#t '# a// te "!u& !u&s6 Te #e(at'*e ass!c'at'!# 2et;ee# s.eed a#d VMS ').act'#(

&a#(e ca# 2e e<./a'#ed as "!//!;s7

+6 VMSs a*e ').acts !# d&'*e&s% 2ea*'!&s6 VMSs a&e de*'ces '#sta//ed a/!#( te &!ads'de t!

d's./a )essa(es !" s.ec'a/ e*e#ts ;a&#'#( suc as c!#(est'!#, '#c'de#t, &!ad;!&? !#e !&

s.eed /')'t t! a/e&t t&a*e/e&s !" t&a""'c .&!2/e)s aead6 Te )essa(es d's./aed 2 VMSs

a*e ').acts !# d&'*e&s% 2ea*'!&s6 D&'*e&s t.'ca// s/!; d!;# t! *'e; te )essa(e a#d t!

./a# a/te&#at'*e &!utes, a#d s!)e !" te) )a d'*e&t t! !te& &!ad;as6

-6 Te d'st&'2ut'!# ca&acte&'st'cs !" VMSs c!#t&'2ute t! te #e(at'*e ass!c'at'!#6 M!st !" te VMSs '#

te T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea a&e /!cated at te "&ee;a se()e#ts ;'t '( AADT6 Tese se()e#ts a&e

t.'ca// )!&e c!#(ested a#d a*e /!;e& )a'#/'#e s.eed6 Te #e(at'*e &e/at'!#s'.

2et;ee# s.eed a#d *a&'a2/e )essa(e s'(#s 's .a&t/ due t! te d'st&'2ut'!#

ca&acte&'st'cs !" te VMSs6

Te#, s!u/d ;e st!. us'#( VMS s'#ce VMS ').act'#( &a#(e 's ass!c'ated ;'t /!;e&

)a'#/'#e s.eed P&!2a2/ #!t6 Because te s.eed dec&ease at !#e c!&&'d!& =VMS ').act'#(

&a#(e> )a .&e*e#t te&&'2/e c!#(est'!# at s!)e !te& c!&&'d!&s6 Fu&te& stud s!u/d 2e d!#e

t! ('*e a )!&e c!).&ee#s'*e e*a/uat'!# !" VMS6

III. 'ig/0ay 'el#er #rogram&

H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a) 's #!t '#c/uded '# te '#c'de#t9"&ee case 2ecause ;e# te stud'ed

se()e#ts a&e '#c'de#t9"&ee, H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a) 's #!t act'*e6

I# te '#c'de#t case, t;! !" te "!u& est')ates a&e .!s't'*e a#d s'(#'"'ca#t =:711AM9711AM a#d

711AM9711AM>, a#d t;! a&e '#s'(#'"'ca#t =3711PM90711PM a#d 0711PM98711PM>6 Te .!s't'*e

a#d s'(#'"'ca#t ass!c'at'!# 2et;ee# s.eed a#d '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) '#d'cates tat '# '#c'de#t

case, te c!&&'d!& se()e#ts ;'t'# '(;a e/.e& .at&!/ a&eas ;'// 2e "aste& ta# te c!&&'d!&

se()e#ts !ut !" te a&eas ;'/e te '#s'(#'"'ca#t &e/at'!#s'. ca# 2e due t! t;! &eas!#s7

+6 te sa)./e s'e 's '#su""'c'e#t t! detect te a/te&#at'*e '# t's s'tuat'!#+4

+8




-6 It 's .a&t/ due t! te "act tat te '#c'de#t ').act !# s.eed 's #!t '# !#e d'&ect'!#6 A/t!u( te

s.eed !# c!&&'d!&s c!*e&ed 2 '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) ca# 2e '#c&eased ='" a#>, te s.eed !#

c!&&'d!&s !ut !" '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) ;!#%t #ecessa&'/ dec&ease6 Actua//, '#c'de#ts

d!;#st&ea) te stud'ed se()e#t t.'ca// dec&ease 'ts s.eed, ;'/e '#c'de#ts

u.st&ea) te se()e#t )'(t cause '#c&ease '# 'ts s.eed6

I+. 'O+ system&

I# te a#a/s's !" te t;! ?'#ds !" HOV sste)s, te s.eed 's "!& te (e#e&a/9.u&.!se /a#es6 Tat%s

2ecause ;e a*e #! '#te&est t! test te HOV /a#es% ass!c'at'!# ;'t s.eed =te ;'// a*e .!s't'*e

&e/at'!#s'.> ;at ;e ;a#t t! est')ate 's te ').act !" te !.e&at'!# !" HOV /a#es t! te (e#e&a/9

.u&.!se /a#es6 Te &e(&ess'!# &esu/ts '# '#c'de#t9"&ee case s!; tat a// te est')ates ="!& 2!t

C!#cu&&e#t HOV du)) a#d Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV du))> a&e #e(at'*e a#d s'(#'"'ca#t, ;'c

'#d'cates tat te !.e&at'!# !" HOV /a#es 's ass!c'ated ;'t /!;e& s.eed !# te (e#e&a/9.u&.!se

/a#es6 F!& '#c'de#t case, 't 's d'""'cu/t t! ('*e te &e(&ess'!# &esu/ts a &eas!#a2/e e<./a#at'!# due t!

te /!; data9@ua/'t6 I#c'de#t /!( d'd#%t &ec!&d !# ;'c /a#e te '#c'de#ts actua// a..e#ed999HOV

/a#es !& (e#e&a/9.u&.!se /a#es6 S! ;e d'd#%t /'st te HOV &e(&ess'!# &esu/ts "!& '#c'de#t case6

5. !ase st)dy II & Using incident rate as res#onse %ariable

5.1 ata collection

TMC "&ee;a '#c'de#t &ec!&d "!& T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea sta&ted "&!) ++, 2ut ;e !#/ usedte data !" Fa// -111 "!& t's stud6 Te ea&/'e& ea&s% '#c'de#t data ca#%t 2e used "!& t's

sste);'de a#a/s's due t! te "!//!;'#( &eas!#s7

+> Te '#c'de#t &ec!&d sta&ted at d'""e&e#t ea&s "!& d'""e&e#t c!&&'d!&s 999 s!)e c!&&'d!&s

"&!) ++, ;'/e s!)e !te&s e*e# as /ate as +

-> Based !# te '#c'de#t &ec!&d, te '#c'de#ts '#c&eased t&e)e#d!us/ '# te .ast te# ea&s6 But t's

'#c&ease ;as .a&t/ caused 2 te add't'!# !" #e; ca)e&as, te u.(&ade !" e@u'.)e#t, a#d te

').&!*ed )!#'t!&'#( )et!ds6

We c!//ected te '#c'de#t data "!& t;! .e&'!ds '# Fa// -111 999 4: ;!&?das ="&!) Au(6 -- t! Oct6+4>2e"!&e &a). )ete&'#( sste) sut9d!;# =Re"e& t! -11+ T;'# C't'es Met&! A&ea Ra). Mete& Stud

F'#a/ &e.!&t-

> a#d 4: ;!&?das = "&!) Oct6 +8 t! Dec6 1:> du&'#( &a). )ete&'#( sste) sut9d!;#6

I#c'de#t &ec!&ds du&'#( tese t;! .e&'!ds a*e )uc '(e& @ua/'t ta# 2e"!&e 2ecause du&'#( tese

t;! .e&'!ds te ca)e&a )!#'t!&'#( sste) c!*e&ed te ;!/e #et;!&? a#d ;as !.e&ated u#de& te

sa)e )!#'t!&'#( st&ate('es a#d e@u'.)e#t c!#d't'!#s6 I# add't'!#, '#c'de#t data ;as c!u#ted 2et;ee#

:711AM t!+711 PM, ;'c ;e&e te !.e&at'!#a/ !u&s !" te t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)6

+:




+

F'(u&e :6 I#te&sect'!#s !# C!&&'d!& +



As t! '#c'de#t t.es, s'#ce ;at ;e ;a#t t! test 's te ass!c'at'!# !" '#c'de#t &ate a#d te t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t

sste), ;e &e)!*ed te '#c'de#ts caused 2 *e'c/e )eca#'ca/ )a/"u#ct'!#s suc as sta//s a#d *e'c/e "'&es

a#d te '#c'de#ts caused 2 de2&'s !# &!ad6 F'#a// t&ee ?'#ds !" '#c'de#ts ;e&e '#c/uded999 c&as, &!//!*e& a#d

s.'#!ut, ;e&e, c&as '#c'de#ts c!u#ted "!& )!&e ta# : !" a// '#c'de#ts6

5." !orridor selection

I# t!ta/, -8 c!&&'d!&s ;e&e se/ected "!& t's stud ;'c #ea&/ c!*e& te ;!/e T;'# C't'es )et&!

a&ea "&ee;a #et;!&? =&e"e& t! A..e#d'< 3>6 Te u#se/ected c!&&'d!&s ;e&e t!se !uts'de !" TMC

ca)e&a )!#'t!&'#(6 Te "ac'/'t status !" eac c!&&'d!& ;as su))a&'ed '# A..e#d'< 06

5.* Regression model

It s!u/d 2e #!ted tat ;'t te s!&t '#c'de#t c!u#t'#( .e&'!ds =4: ;!&?das 2e"!&e a#d du&'#( &a). )ete&'#(

sut9d!;# &es.ect'*e/> ;e ca# (ua&a#tee te @ua/'t !" '#c'de#t data !;e*e&, 't 's a/s! due t! te s!&t

'#c'de#t c!u#t'#( .e&'!ds ;e a*e t! se/ect /!#( c!&&'d!&s t! e#su&e a #!#9e&! #u)2e& !" '#c'de#ts6 We# te

c!&&'d!&s a&e /!#(, 't 's ').!ss'2/e t! '#c/ude s!)e t&a""'c !& '#"&ast&uctu&e ca&acte&'st'cs as .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es

a/t!u( tese ca&acte&'st'cs )a 2e &e/e*a#t t! te &es.!#se *a&'a2/e6 F!& e<a)./e, s!)e t&a""'c st&ea)

ca&acte&'st'cs 9suc as /'#? s.eed, "/!; !& de#s't 9 s!u/d 2e te .!te#t'a/ .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es !" '#c'de#t

&e(&ess'!# a#a/s's, 2ut "!& a /!#( c!&&'d!& =;'c as se*e&a/ se()e#ts>, te s.eed, "/!; !& de#s't !" te

se()e#ts *a& (&eat/ a#d #!#e !" te) c!u/d 2e &e.&ese#ted 2 a s'#(/e *a/ue6 A/s! te (e!)et&'c

ca&acte&'st'cs ca#%t 2e &e.&ese#ted 2 a

u#'"!&) "!&)at "!& a// te se()e#ts !" a /!#( c!&&'d!&6 F'#a// ;e '#c/uded

/')'ted .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es '# te &e(&ess'!# )!de/6

Te )u/t'./e &e(&ess'!# )!de/ ca# 2e &e.&ese#ted as 2e/!;7

I#c'de#t Rate 1 + ⋅ I#te&sect'!# De#s't R ⋅ Ra). Mete& =+,1> , ⋅

VMS De#s't - ⋅ H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a) =+,1> . 40 ⋅ C!#cu&&e#t HOV

'# I940W =+,1> . 43 ⋅ C!#cu&&e#t HOV '# I943 =+,1> / 43 ⋅ Ba&&'e&9

se.a&ated HOV '# I943 =+,1>

ε We&e,te &es.!#se *a&'a2/e 's I#c'de#t Rate, ;'c 's te #u)2e& !" '#c'de#ts .e& )'/e6

Eac c!&&'d!& as t;! d'&ect'!#s, a#d eac d'&ect'!# ;'// a*e t;! !2se&*at'!#s999

I#c'de#t Rate 2e"!&e sut9d!;# a#d I#c'de#t Rate du&'#( sut9d!;#6

Te .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es '#c/ude I#te&sect'!# De#s't, Ra). Mete&'#( Du)),

VMS De#s't, H'(;a He/.e& Du)), C!#cu&&e#t HOV '# I940W




Du)), C!#cu&&e#t HOV '# I943 Du)) a#d Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV '# I943 Du))6

Te '#te&sect'!# de#s't 's te #u)2e& !" '#te&sect'!#s .e& )'/e6 F!& e<a)./e, F'(u&e : s!;s

tat c!&&'d!& + !# I933 as 8 '#te&sect'!#s6 S'#ce 't 's ').!ss'2/e t! '#c/ude deta'/ed t&a""'c !&

'#"&ast&uctu&e ca&acte&'st'cs as .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es '# t's )!de/, ;e use '#te&sect'!# de#s't

as a su2st'tute6 JBus% c!&&'d!&s te#d t! a*e '(e& '#te&sect'!# de#s't, a#d '# *'e; !"

(e!)et&'c st&uctu&e '#te&sect'!# 's )!&e Jda#(e&!us% ta# st&a'(t /'#e '# te )et&! a&ea,

te&e"!&e, te '#te&sect'!# de#s't !" a c!&&'d!& s!u/d 2e st&!#(/ &e/ated t! 'ts '#c'de#t &ate6

Ra). Mete&'#( Du)), H'(;a He/.e& Du)), C!#cu&&e#t HOV '# I940W Du)),

C!#cu&&e#t HOV '# I943 Du)) a#d Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV '# I943 Du)) a&e de"'#ed as7

Ra). Mete&+ '" te c!&&'d!& 's u#de& &a). )ete&'#( c!#t&!/ !te&;'se, Ra). Mete&16

H'(;a He/.e& + '" te c!&&'d!& 's ;'t'# '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) .at&!/ a&ea !te&;'se,

H'(;a He/.e& 16

HOV+ '" te c!&&'d!& as HOV /a#e=s> '# !.e&at'!# !te&;'se, HOV16

As t! VMS, VMS de#s't 's a )!&e &eas!#a2/e )easu&e ta# VMS ').act'#( &a#(e "!& /!#( c!&&'d!&s6 VMS

de#s't 's te #u)2e& !" VMSs .e& )'/e ;'c 's c!u#ted "!& 2!t d'&ect'!#s !" eac c!&&'d!&6

5. Regression Res)lt Analysis&

Te &e(&ess'!# &esu/ts ;e&e su))a&'ed '# Ta2/e 06 Te R9s@ua&ed *a/ue s!;s tat te &e(&ess'!# )!de/

!#/ e<./a'#s a2!ut t'&t .e&ce#t !" te !2se&*at'!#s6 Tat 's 2ecause ;e '#c/uded /')'ted .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es '#

t's )!de/, 2ut actua// '#c'de#t 's suc a# '&&e(u/a& a#d c!)./e< .e#!)e#a, *a&'!us &eas!#s99suc as d&'*e&

"act!&s, *e'c/e "act!&s, t&a""'c st&ea) "act!&s, a#d (e!)et&'c st&uctu&e !& .a*e)e#t @ua/'t "act!&s99)a

c!#t&'2ute t! 'ts !ccu&&e#ce6 Ta2/e 8 su))a&'es te &e(&ess'!# &esu/ts !" eac !" te '#de.e#de#t *a&'a2/es6

N!te7 deta'/ed &e(&ess'!# &esu/ts !" case stud II a&e '# A..e#d'< +36

Table 5 & S)mmary of regression res)lts

Nu)2e& !" !2se&*at'!#s

R9s@ua&ed 164:83

Adusted R9s@ua&ed 164-:

F *a/ue :6:8P&!2 F 161111

+




Table 8 & Regression res)lts of t/e inde#endent %ariables

I#de.e#de#tC!e""'c'e#t P9*a/ue

S'(#'"'ca#t !& Sta#da&dt9*a/ue

Va&'a2/es #!t s'(#'"'ca#t e&&!&

I#te&sect'!#+641-3+3 161+4 S 60+3414- -604-

De#s't

Ra). Mete&'#( 9+61:+43 1611+ S 64-38+1- 946411

VMS De#s't 36+:-4 16140 S +60+043 -6+4

H'(;a He/.e& +633034 16114 S 6380+00 4610

C!#cu&&e#t HOV6-4+001- 16: NS 6083:43 16-:1

'# I940W

C!#cu&&e#t HOV963130: 16-1 NS 6804:1- 9+61:

'# I943Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated

-63818 1611 S 61+-:14 -6:41HOV '# I943

!ote" S###Significant$ !S###!onsignificant% T&e le'el of significance is %1 in t&is st*y%

I#te&sect'!# De#s't as .!s't'*e a#d s'(#'"'ca#t &e/at'!#s'. ;'t '#c'de#t &ate, ;'c '#d'cates tat

te )!&e '#te&sect'!#s te '(e& '#c'de#t &ate6 T's &esu/t acc!&ds ;'t !u& e<.ectat'!#6 H!;e*e&,

't s!u/d a/s! 2e #!ted tat )!&e ta# a/" !" te su&*e'//a#ce ca)e&as a&e /!cated at !& #ea& te

'#te&sect'!#s, Jte )!&e '#te&sect'!#s te '(e& '#c'de#t &ate% )a 2e .a&t/ due t! te "act tat Jte

)!&e '#te&sect'!#s te )!&e ca)e&as%, a#d te )!&e ca)e&as, te )!&e '#c'de#ts &e.!&ted6

Ra). Mete&'#( as #e(at'*e a#d s'(#'"'ca#t &e/at'!#s'. ;'t '#c'de#t &ate, ;'c '#d'cates

tat &a). )ete&'#( 's *e& e""ect'*e '# &educ'#( '#c'de#ts6 T's &esu/t acc!&ds ;'t te T;'#

C't'es Met&! A&ea Ra). Mete& Stud-

, ;'c s!;ed &a). )ete&'#( &esu/ts '# a##ua/

sa*'#(s !" +,13+ c&ases ="!u& c&ases .e& da>6

Te .!s't'*e a#d s'(#'"'ca#t &e/at'!#s'. 2et;ee# VMS De#s't a#d '#c'de#t &ate '#d'cates tat

c!&&'d!&s ;'t '(e& VMS de#s't a&e t.'ca// te c!&&'d!&s ;'t '(e& '#c'de#t &ate6

H'(;a He/.e& 's .!s't'*e a#d s'(#'"'ca#t, ;'c '#d'cates tat te c!&&'d!&s u#de&

H'(;a He/.e& .at&!/ a&e te c!&&'d!&s ;'t '(e& '#c'de#t &ate

C!#cu&&e#t HOV '# I940W a#d C!#cu&&e#t HOV '# I943 a&e 2!t '#s'(#'"'ca#t, ;'c '#d'cates

tat te !.e&at'!# !" C!#cu&&e#t HOV as #! e""ects !# te t!ta/ '#c'de#t &ate !" (e#e&a/

.u&.!se /a#es a#d HOV /a#e6

It s!u/d 2e #!t'ced tat a/t!u( C!#cu&&e#t HOV d'd#%t '#c&ease te t!ta/ '#c'de#t &ate, 't

d!es#%t &u/e !ut te .!ss'2'/'t tat te '#c&ease !" te '#c'de#t &ate !# te (e#e&a/9.u&.!se

/a#es ;as !""set 2 te dec&ease !" te '#c'de#t &ate !# te HOV /a#e6 Te &eas!# "!& )a?'#(

t's .!tes's 's tat HOV /a#e t.'ca// ca&&'es )uc /ess t&a""'c ta# te (e#e&a/9.u&.!se

/a#e6 H!;e*e&, te '#c'de#t /!( d'd#%t &ec!&d !# ;'c /a#es te '#c'de#ts actua// a..e#ed999

HOV /a#es !& (e#e&a/9.u&.!se /a#es, te&e"!&e, ;e ca#%t test te .!tes's6

-1




Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV '# I943 's .!s't'*e a#d s'(#'"'ca#t =as '( as -63>, ;'c '#d'cates tat te

!.e&at'!# !" Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV 's st&!#(/ ass!c'ated ;'t te '#c&ease '# te t!ta/ '#c'de#t &ate !"

(e#e&a/ .u&.!se /a#es a#d HOV /a#es6 T's &esu/t acc!&ds ;'t .u2/'c d'ssat's"act'!# a2!ut HOV 9999

caus'#( '#c'de#t '#c&ease6

8. !oncl)sion&

T's stud used te )u/t'./e &e(&ess'!# )!de/ t! e*a/uate te /!#(9&u# .e&"!&)a#ce !" "!u& t&a""'c

)a#a(e)e#t sste)s 999 Ra). Mete&'#( Sste), Va&'a2/e Messa(e S'(#s =VMS>, H'(;a He/.e&

P&!(&a), a#d H'( Occu.a#c Ve'c/e =HOV> Sste) '# te T;'# C't'es )et&! a&ea6 L'#? s.eed a#d

'#c'de#t &ate ;e&e e)./!ed as te &es.!#se *a&'a2/e se.a&ate/ "!& case stud I a#d case stud II6

I# case stud I, a u(e data2ase !" a2!ut 31,111 !2se&*at'!#s c!*e&'#( t&ee ea&s% data ;as esta2/'sed6

Te /!#(9&u# a#d sste);'de .e&"!&)a#ces !" te "!u& t&a""'c )a#a(e)e#t sste)s ;e&e est')ated "!& 2!t

'#c'de#t9"&ee a#d '#c'de#t cases6 Te ?e "'#d'#(s a&e su))a&'ed as "!//!;s7

F!& '#c'de#t9"&ee case, &a). )ete&'#( 's e""ect'*e '# '#c&eas'#( )a'#/'#e s.eed6 F!& e<a)./e, "&!)

:711AM t! 711AM, te c!&&'d!& se()e#t ;'t &a). )ete&'#( 's est')ated t! 2e 36 )'/e$& "aste& ta#

te c!&&'d!& se()e#t ;'t!ut &a). )ete&'#( a#d te e""ect !" !#e &a). )ete& !# )a'#/'#e s.eed 's

a..&!<')ate/ e@ua/ t! dec&eas'#( 81 *e'c/es .e& )'/e !# a t&ee9/a#e "&ee;a se()e#t6 F!& '#c'de#t

case !;e*e&, c!&&'d!& se()e#ts ;'t &a). )ete&'#( a&e #!t #ecessa&'/ "aste& !& s/!;e& ta# c!&&'d!&

se()e#ts ;'t!ut &a). )ete&'#(, ;'c '#d'cates te e""ects !" te &a). )ete&'#( '# '#c&eas'#(

)a'#/'#e s.eed ;!#%t a/;as !""set te '#c'de#t '#"/ue#ces6

F!& 2!t '#c'de#t9"&ee a#d '#c'de#t case, te c!&&'d!& se()e#t ;'t'# VMS ').act'#(

&a#(e ;'// 2e /!;e& ta# te c!&&'d!& se()e#t !uts'de6 Te #e(at'*e &e/at'!#s'. s!u/d

2e due t! t;! &eas!#s7 +6 VMS )essa(es% ').acts !# d&'*e&s% 2ea*'!&s -6 te

(e!(&a.'c d'st&'2ut'!# ca&acte&'st'cs !" te VMSs 6

H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a) ;as e*a/uated !#/ '# te '#c'de#t case6 Te H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a)

du)) c!e""'c'e#t "!& :711AM9711AM a#d 711AM9711AM a&e .!s't'*e a#d s'(#'"'ca#t, ;'c

'#d'cates tat '# t's case, te c!&&'d!& se()e#ts ;'t'# '(;a e/.e& .at&!/ a&eas ;'// 2e "aste& ta#

te c!&&'d!& se()e#ts !ut !" te a&eas6 H!;e*e&, te H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a) du)) c!e""'c'e#t "!&

3711PM90711PM a#d 0711PM98711PM a&e '#s'(#'"'ca#t, ;'c )a 2e due t! te sa)./e s'e .&!2/e)

!& )a 2e due t! te "act tat te '#c'de#t ').act !# s.eed 's #!t '# !#e d'&ect'!# 999a/t!u( te

s.eed !# c!&&'d!&s c!*e&ed 2 '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) ca# 2e '#c&eased ='" a#>, te s.eed !#

c!&&'d!&s !ut !" '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) ;!#%t #ecessa&'/ dec&ease6

I# '#c'de#t9"&ee case, te !.e&at'!# !" HOV /a#es 's ass!c'ated ;'t /!;e& s.eed !#

te (e#e&a/9.u&.!se /a#es6

-+




I# case stud II, '#c'de#t &ate a#a/s's ;as 2ased !# te '#c'de#t data c!//ected "!& t;!

.e&'!ds '# Fa// -111 999 2e"!&e &a). )ete&'#( sste) sut9d!;# a#d du&'#( &a). )ete&'#(

sste) sut9d!;#6 Te ?e "'#d'#(s a&e su))a&'ed as 2e/!;7

Ra). Mete&'#( sste) 's ass!c'ated ;'t a /!;e& '#c'de#t &ate 2ecause ;e tested te

sa)e sect'!#s ;'t a#d ;'t!ut )ete&s, ;e 2e/'e*e t's 's a causa/ e""ect

B!t te c!&&'d!&s ;'t '(e& VMS de#s't a#d te c!&&'d!&s u#de& H'(;a He/.e&

.at&!/ a&e t.'ca// te c!&&'d!&s ;'t '(e& '#c'de#t &ate

Te !.e&at'!# !" C!#cu&&e#t HOV d!es#%t a*e a s'(#'"'ca#t &e/at'!#s'. ;'t '#c'de#t

&ate ca#(e !;e*e&, ;e ca# #!t &u/e !ut te .!ss'2'/'t tat te '#c&ease !" te '#c'de#t

&ate !# te (e#e&a/9.u&.!se /a#es ;as !""set 2 te dec&ease !" te '#c'de#t &ate !# te

HOV /a#e =!& *'ce *e&sa>

Te !.e&at'!# !" Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV 's ass!c'ated ;'t te '#c&ease !" te t!ta/

'#c'de#t &ate !" (e#e&a/ .u&.!se /a#es a#d HOV /a#es

I# "utu&e ;!&?, ').&!*e)e#t c!u/d 2e )ade t&!u( te "!//!;'#( as.ects7

F!& &a). )ete&'#( e*a/uat'!#, te cu&&e#t s.eed &e(&ess'!# )!de/ .&!*'ded a Jc!#se&*at'*e%

est')ate, ;'c s!u/d 2e /ess ta# te "u// e""ects !" &a). )ete&'#( !# )a'#/'#e s.eed6 A#

').&!*ed )!de/ s!u/d 2e a2/e t! est')ate te .a&t !" &a). )ete&'#(%s e""ects !# c!#t&!//'#(

)a'#/'#e de#s't ;'c ;as #!t e<./a'#ed 2 te &a). )ete&'#( du))6

Ou& stud "!u#d te #e(at'*e &e/at'!#s'. 2et;ee# VMS ').act'#( &a#(e a#d )a'#/'#e s.eed6

But ;e d'd#%t% a#s;e& te @uest'!# ;ete& te s.eed dec&ease at !#e c!&&'d!& =VMS

').act'#( &a#(e> &ea// e/. .&e*e#t )!&e se&'!us c!#(est'!# at s!)e !te& c!&&'d!&s6 M!&e

deta'/ed stud s!u/d 2e d!#e t! ('*e a c!).&ee#s'*e e*a/uat'!# !" VMS6

F!& HOV sste), ;e (!t te c!#c/us'!# tat te !.e&at'!# !" HOV /a#es 's ass!c'ated

;'t /!;e& s.eed !# te (e#e&a/9.u&.!se /a#es6 H!;e*e&, s'#ce te .u&.!se !" HOV

sste) 's t! &educe sste) PHT =.e&s!# !u&s t&a*e/ed>, "u&te& stud )ust 2e d!#e t!

dete&)'#e ;ete& te .e&s!#9!u&s '#c&ease !# (e#e&a/9.u&.!se /a#es ='" a#> c!u/d

2e !""set 2 te .e&s!#9!u&s dec&ease !# HOV /a#es =!& *'ce *e&sa>6

Dec&eas'#( data9/')'tat'!#s6 A )a!& 'ssue '# &e(&ess'!# a#a/s's 's te @ua/'t !" data2ase6

Re(&ess'!# a#a/s's .&!*'des '#"!&)at'!# !# &e/at'!#s'.s 2et;ee# a &es.!#se *a&'a2/e a#d

.&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es 2ut !#/ t! te de(&ee tat suc '#"!&)at'!# 's c!#ta'#ed '# te data2ase8

6

Due t! data @ua/'t, te a#a/s's !" HOV sste) ca#%t 2e c!#ducted '# '#c'de#t case6 A/s!, te

e*a/uat'!# !" VMS 's /')'ted 2 te /ac? !" deta'/ed act'*'t /!(6 I# add't'!#, &est&'cted 2 te ea&/'e&

ea&s% '#c'de#t data @ua/'t, ;e ust used te '#c'de#t data '# Fa// -111 "!& '#c'de#t &ate

--




&e(&ess'!# a#a/s's6 Te /')'ted stud .e&'!ds /ead t! te se/ect'!# !" /!#( c!&&'d!&s,

;'c .&e*e#ted us "&!) e)./!'#( deta'/ed /'#? t&a""'c a#d '#"&ast&uctu&e

ca&acte&'st'cs as .&ed'ct!& *a&'a2/es6



-4




References&

+6 Ba#?s, a)es H6 Ke//, G&e(!& =+:>6 T&a""'c Ma#a(e)e#t Sste)s Pe&"!&)a#ce

Measu&e)e#t F'#a/ Re.!&t6 Ca/'"!&#'a PATH Resea&c Re.!&t =UCB9ITS9PRR9:904>6

-6 Ca)2&'d(e Sste)at'cs, I#c =-11+>6 T;'# C't'es Met&! A&ea Ra). Mete& Stud6 F'#a/

&e.!&t .&e.a&ed "!& M'##es!ta De.a&t)e#t !" T&a#s.!&tat'!#6

tt.7$$;;;6d!t6state6)#6us$&a).)ete&stud$&e.!&ts6t)/ 6

46 Ca)2&'d(e Sste)at'cs, I#c =-11->6 T;'# C't'es HOV Stud6 F'#a/ &e.!&t .&e.a&ed "!&

M'##es!ta De.a&t)e#t !" T&a#s.!&tat'!#6 tt.7$$;;;6d!t6state6)#6us$'#"!&)at'!#$!*$6

36 C!!?, R6 De##'s6 A../'ed &e(&ess'!# '#c/ud'#( c!).ut'#( a#d (&a.'cs6 Pu2/'sed

2 !# W'/e S!#s, I#c6 +6

06 DeG&!!t, M!&&'s H6 P&!2a2'/'t a#d stat'st'cs, -#d ed6 Pu2/'sed 2 Add's!#9Wes/e

Pu26 C!6, c+86

86 Gu#st, R'ca&d F6 Mas!#, R!2e&t L6 Re(&ess'!# a#a/s's a#d 'ts a../'cat'!#7 a data9

!&'e#ted a..&!ac6 Pu2/'sed 2 M6 De??e&, c+1, Ne; Y!&?6

:6 Ha//, F&ed L6 T&a""'c F/!; Te!&7 A State !" te A&t Re.!&t, Ca.te& -7 T&a""'c St&ea)

Ca&acte&'st'cs6 S.!#s!&ed 2 te T&a#s.!&tat'!# Resea&c B!a&dXs C!))'ttee !#

Te!& !" T&a""'c F/!; =A4A++>, "u#ded 2 Fede&a/ H'(;a Ad)'#'st&at'!# =FHWA> '#

u#e +-6 tt.7$$;;;9cta6!&#/6(!*$cta$&esea&c$t&2$t"t6t)/

6 I#st'tute !" T&a#s.!&tat'!# E#('#ee&s =ITE>6 Ma#ua/ !" T&a""'c E#('#ee&'#( Stud'es,

4&d ed6 Was'#(t!#, +836

6 Le*'#s!#, Da*'d a#(, Le' Das, Sa#ta#u Se'?, At'" =-11-> Ra). Mete&s !# T&'a/7

E*'de#ce "&!) te T;'# C't'es Ra). Mete&s Sut9!""6 P&ese#ted at +st T&a#s.!&tat'!#

Resea&c B!a&d C!#"e&e#ce, Was'#(t!# DC -11- =TRB91-9-+8:>6

+16 Le*'#s!#, Da*'d =-11->6 Pe&s.ect'*es !# E""'c'e#c '# T&a#s.!&tat'!#6 P&ese#ted at te +st

T&a#s.!&tat'!# Resea&c B!a&d C!#"e&e#ce, Was'#(t!# DC -11- =TRB91-9-1+0>6

-3




++6 M'##es!ta De.a&t)e#t !" T&a#s.!&tat'!# =-111 a#d -11+>6 F&ee;a T&a""'c Ma#a(e)e#t

P&!(&a) Status Re.!&t6 tt.7$$de.ts6;as'#(t!#6edu$t&2a4a1$status$a#-11+$M'##es!ta6.d" 6

tt.7$$de.ts6;as'#(t!#6edu$t&2a4a1$status$u#-111$)'##es!ta6.d" 6

+-6 M'##es!ta De.a&t)e#t !" T&a#s.!&tat'!# T&a""'c Ma#a(e)e#t

Ce#te&6 tt.7$$;;;6d!t6state6)#6us$t)c$6

-0




A##endi9 1. !ase st)dy I& !orridor selection



-8




A##endi9 ". !ase st)dy I& !orridor selection

!orridor ;eogra#/ic c/aracteristics (rom To

I23N< Be/t/'#e "&ee;a CR 8 I93

I23S< Be/t/'#e "&ee;a Bass La?e Rd CR 8

I23W< Be/t/'#e "&ee;a I940W TH +8

I23=< Be/t/'#e "&ee;a TH +8 I940W

I283W< Be/t/'#e "&ee;a I940W TH -0-

I283=< Be/t/'#e "&ee;a TH -0- I940W

I23W< I#te&c't c!##ect!& I940E TH -1

I23=< I#te&c't c!##ect!& TH -1 I940E

I23N< Rad'a/ "&ee;a ;'t'# te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e B&!ad;a Hu)2!/dt

I23S< Rad'a/ "&ee;a ;'t'# te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e Hu)2!/dt TH 00

I2*3W< Rad'a/ "&ee;a ;'t'# te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e I93 TH +11

I2*3=< Rad'a/ "&ee;a ;'t'# te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e TH +11 I93

I2*5= N< ,Nort/ of I23- Rad'a/ "&ee;a ;'t'# te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e I93 TH 48

I2*5= S< ,Nort/ of I23- Rad'a/ "&ee;a ;'t'# te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e TH 48 I93

I2*5= N< ,So)t/ of I23- Rad'a/ "&ee;a ;'t'# te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e I933 ST6 C/a'&

I2*5= S< ,So)t/ of I23- Rad'a/ "&ee;a ;'t'# te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e 0TH Ke//!(( I933

I2*5W N< Rad'a/ "&ee;a !uts'de te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e M'ss'ss'..' R'*e& 8TH

I2*5W S< Rad'a/ "&ee;a !uts'de te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e 8TH ++4TH ST6

I2*5= N< ,So)t/ of I23- Rad'a/ "&ee;a !uts'de te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e CR ++ D'""/e RD6

I2*5= S< ,So)t/ of I23- Rad'a/ "&ee;a !uts'de te I933$I983 2e/t/ '#e D'""/e RD6 TH9::

T'2>> N< Rad'a/ "&ee;a !uts 'de te I933$I983 2e/t/ '#e +-:TH O/d

Sa?!.ee

T'2>> S< Rad'a/ "&ee;a !uts'de te I933$I983 2e/t/'#e O/d Sa?!.ee I940E

-:




A##endi9 *. !ase st)dy I& T/e correlation matri9es of #redictor %ariables

I. Incident2free&

>&??AM2 @&??AM2

@&??AM =NSIT RM +MS !on'O+ <ar'O+ 3&??AM =NSIT RM +MS !on'O+ <ar'O+

=NSIT +611 16+ 916+4 161 1618 =NSIT +611 16+ 9161 16+0 161:

RM 16+ +611 161+ 91614 91614 RM 16+ +611 161- 91614 91614

+MS 916+4 161+ +611 91610 91610 +MS 9161 161- +611 91613 91610

!on'O+ 161 91614 91610 +611 91610 !on'O+ 16+0 91614 91613 +611 91610

<ar'O+ 1618 91614 91610 91610 +611 <ar'O+ 161: 91614 91610 91610 +611

&??PM2 5&??PM25&??PM =NSIT RM +MS !on'O+ <ar'O+ 8&??PM =NSIT RM +MS !on'O+ <ar'O+

=NSIT +611 161 161: 16+0 161 =NSIT +611 161: 161: 16+- 16+4

RM 161 +611 161+ 91614 91614 RM 161: +611 161+ 9161- 91614

+MS 161: 161+ +611 91610 91613 +MS 161: 161+ +611 91610 91613

!on'O+ 16+0 91614 91610 +611 91610 !on'O+ 16+- 9161- 91610 +611 91610

<ar'O+ 161 91614 91613 91610 +611 <ar'O+ 16+4 91614 91613 91610 +611

II. Incident&

??AM2=NSIT RM +MS ''=4P=R !on'O+ <ar'O+

@&??AM2=NSIT RM +MS ''=4P=R !on'O+??AM 3&??AM

NSIT +611 916++ 9164- 91614 1610 161- =NSIT +611 16+1 916+3 16-- 161+

RM 916++ +611 16+8 16- 916+- 9161 RM 16+1 +611 1610 16- 9161:

+MS 9164- 16+8 +611 16-0 916+1 91613 +MS 916+3 1610 +611 16+: 916+3

=4P=R 91614 16- 16-0 +611 161 16+1 ''=4P=R 16-- 16- 16+: +611 1613

n'O+ 1610 916+- 916+1 161 +611 91610 !on'O+ 161+ 9161: 916+3 1613 +611

r'O+ 161- 9161 91613 16+1 91610 +611 <ar'O+ 9161- 9161: 91614 16+4 91613

??PM2 5&??PM2??PM =NSIT RM +MS ''=4P=R !on'O+ <ar'O+ 8&??PM =NSIT RM +MS ''=4P=R !on'O+

NSIT +611 161- 16+1 16+- 1614 161- =NSIT +611 916+- 16+0 161 16+0

RM 161- +611 91614 164- 916-: 916++ RM 916+- +611 91614 1648 9164:

+MS 16+1 91614 +611 9161: 9161- 916+: +MS 16+0 91614 +611 16+1 161:

=4P=R 16+- 164- 9161: +611 1610 161 ''=4P=R 161 1648 16+1 +611 1618

n'O+ 1614 916-: 9161- 1610 +611 9161: !on'O+ 16+0 9164: 161: 1618 +611

r'O+ 161- 916++ 916+: 161 9161: +611 <ar'O+ 9161- 91610 916+4 16+4 91610

-




A##endi9 . !ase st)dy II& !orridor selection



-




A##endi9 5. !ase st)dy II& (acility stat)s for t/e "8 corridors

Ra). Z !" Va&'a2/eH'(;a

C!#cu&&e#t C!#cu&&e#tHe/.e& Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated

C!&&'d!& D'&ect'!# Mete& Messa(e HOV '# I940W HOV '# I943P&!(&a) HOV '# I943=+, 1>

=+, 1> S'(#s =+, 1> =+, 1>=+, 1>

+ +N + + + 1 1 1+S + + + 1 1 1

--N + + + 1 1 1

-S + + + 1 1 1

44W + + + 1 1 +

4E + + + 1 1 +

33W + + + 1 + 1

3E + 4 + 1 + 1

00N + + + + 1 1

0S + 1 + + 1 1

88N + + + 1 1 1

8S + + + 1 1 1

::N + + + 1 1 1

:S + - + 1 1 1

N + - + 1 1 1

S + + + 1 1 1

N + 1 1 1 1 1

S + + 1 1 1 1

+1+1W + + + 1 1 1

+1E + - + 1 1 1

++++W + + 1 1 1 1

++E 1 1 1 1 1 1

+-+-W + + + 1 1 1

+-E + 1 + 1 1 1

+4+4N + + + 1 1 1

+4S + + + 1 1 1

+3+3W + 4 + 1 1 1

+3E + - + 1 1 1

+0+0N + + + 1 1 1

+0S + + + 1 1 1+8

+8N + + + 1 1 1

+8S + + + 1 1 1

+:+:W + + + 1 1 1

+:E + + + 1 1 1

++N + + + 1 1 1

+S + + + 1 1 1

++N + + 1 1 1 1

+S + + 1 1 1 1

-1-1N + + + 1 1 1

-1S + - + 1 1 1

-+-+W + + + 1 1 1

-+E + + + 1 1 1

----N + 1 + 1 1 1

--S + + + 1 1 1

-4 -4N + + + 1 1 1-4S 1 1 + 1 1 1

-3-3N + + 1 1 1 1

-3S 1 + 1 1 1 1

-0-0W + - + 1 1 1

-0E + - + 1 1 1

-8 -8S + + 1 1 1 1

N!te7Ra). Mete&+ '" te c!&&'d!& 's u#de& &a). )ete&'#( c!#t&!/ !te&;'se, Ra). Mete&1

41




H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a)+ '" te c!&&'d!& 's ;'t'# '(;a e/.e& .&!(&a) .at&!/ a&ea

!te&;'se, H'(;a He/.e& P&!(&a)1

HOV+ '" te c!&&'d!& as HOV /a#e=s> '# !.e&at'!# !te&;'se, HOV1F!& VMS, te #u)2e& !" VMSs .e& c!&&'d!& .e& d'&ect'!# 's c!u#ted6

4+




A##endices 821*& !ase st)dy I regression res)lts&

A..e#d'< 87

Re(&ess'!# Resu/t7 I#c'de#t F&ee :711 AM 711 AM

S!u&ce SS d" MS Nu)2e& !" !2s F= -:, 81> -:6+4

M!de/ 8:86+1 -: -0+164114 P&!2 F 161111Res'dua/ :0:0-6303 81 :680083 R9s@ua&ed 16384

Ad R9s@ua&ed 1638-4T!ta/ +3808-1608 : +8461---

R!!t MSE 64838

Res.!#se Va&'a2/e 7 S.eed

P&ed'ct!& Va&'a2/e C!e"6 Std6 E&&6 t P[t[ 0 C!#"6 I#te&*a/

De#s't 96-0-101: 6110--80 936--8 16111 96-8--0 96-3+108

Ra). Mete& 36-+ 6-888: +:6:3 16111 3641--88 064000:+

VMS 9-6:1480- 6-8811 9+16+83 16111 946--01 9-6+--+4

C!#cu&&e#t HOV 9-6188+ +61+4-:8 9-60+0 16111 94+6-8 9-:6-148

Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV 9486-:0: 61-- 948684+ 16111 946-+:+ 9436443:0

T;!9La#e :604080 +61:4+0 :61-- 16111 0634-4- 68481-

T&ee9La#e 86+41+: +61+-4+ 86108 16111 36+30+- 6++308-

F!u&9La#e 9-6:4+0 6833:3 936-48 16111 9468+4 9+638:08

I940E NB =S!ut !" I93> 9-6+:03 64:+33 944680: 16111 9-6+83 9-860433

I940E SB =S!ut !" I93> 9-6+10 60-4 94-64- 16111 9416:381- 9-:6-481:

I943WB 6-108 64081- +16010 16111 :6318- ++688

I943EB d&!..ed

I940W NB -6810: 63-4: -6:3 16118 6:3:1-+0 36383000

I940W SB d&!..ed

I93WB 9+6844 +6+-:1- 9+860-8 16111 9-163+3 9+863-:83

I93EB 9+363:+:0 +6+8814- 9+-63++ 16111 9+86:0:33 9+-6+818

I93NB 9+-64:- +6+0:: 9+16+1 16111 9+06-8+0 9+168+--

I93SB 9+61:+ +6+::8- 9+06434 16111 9-1641:: 9+06:841-

I933NB 94-6:3+13 6080 946++8 16111 94363-30 94+610:-4

I933SB 94:683+ 68084: 9346:3+ 16111 9460810 9486+8:-8

I983WB 94+63-0 613+1:- 940644: 16111 9446:-10+ 9416+:0

I983EB 9-6+4 6313- 94+6+4 16111 94+6:8-: 9-61:0:4

I933WB 94:6133+- 61-83 9386+01 16111 9468+:0 94063:188

I933EB 94-6:1:4 6:1-403 93+641 16111 9436-08: 94+6+0

I940E NB =N!&t !" I93> d&!..ed

I940E SB =N!&t !" I93> 9-3614:3 6:+:00 9-:643+ 16111 9-06:81: 9--64+3+

TH9:: NB 9-:60+00 63:::0: 94-60- 16111 9-60+44 9-86+:+

TH9:: SB 9-3601--: 6--43- 9-6:3 16111 9-86++340 9--61+

I940E NB =S!ut !" I933> 9-+6:+440 60-14 9-06-:+ 16111 9-464:0 9-161-++

I940E SB =S!ut !" I933> 9-46-:-- 610- 9-0604 16111 9-0618--3 9-+638+

C!#sta#t 06:8 +64843338-6-: 16111 46+-3-3 63808

4-




A..e#d'< :7

Re(&ess'!# Resu/t7 I#c'de#t F&ee 711 AM 711 AM

S!u&ce SS d" MS Nu)2e& !" !2s 141F= -:, 11-> -36

M!de/ 8:110:6+8 -: -3+8644- P&!2 F 161111

Res'dua/ :0:44-63-+ 11- 36+-40+3 R9s@ua&ed 16383 Ad R9s@ua&ed 1638:

T!ta/ +3-:468- 1- +06133:R!!t MSE 6+:--



De#s't 96-01:33 611343 90+6-3+ 16111 96-81448- 96-3++0+

Ra). Mete& -64-01+ 643104 86-: 16111 +680:3:8 -6-034

VMS 9-6:80-+ 6-0+13 9++633 16111 9463303 9-63833

C!#cu&&e#t HOV 9+363::: +6+-4 9+-630 16111 9+:6+:0 9+-60+88

Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV 9+:6+:4 6:+8+0 9+:604 16111 9+6++8+3 9+06-+4+

T;!9La#e 46000: +6101:8 46:4 16111 +6-0+4 8613041+

T&ee9La#e -633:+0 614-+ -63:+ 161+4 6010-80 364384

F!u&9La#e 9-61:40- 68-:-1+ 9363:0 16111 93614883 9+60:::3+

I940E NB =S!ut !" I93> 96030 +61---++ 96483 16111 9+16004:- 986038+0

I940E SB =S!ut !" I93> 9++68-13 +61:0-18 9+16+0 16111 9+46:408 960-14

I943WB 644: 6404++ 6+: 16111 860184:0 +16+:4--

I943EB d&!..ed

I940W NB -683:+ 6-3:344 461 1611- +610-1+- 368::3-:

I940W SB d&!..ed

I93WB 906+11-3 6:+048+ 9:6+41 16111 98601-0- 9468::8

I93EB96:34-0+ 6:418:10 9+61+: 1641 9-6+:0088 6804

I93NB d&!..ed

I93SB 9461:-8 6844-- 93683 16111 9364-+++ 9+648:+

I933NB 9+86:31- +61:+88 9+068+8 16111 9+63+0 9+3684

I933SB 9-+64180 +613-1 9-16338 16111 9-46438 9+6-83--

I983WB 9+86+-88 608 9+861+ 16111 9+61108 9+36-304:

I983EB 9+06813 604:+4 9+86:33 16111 9+:6400 9+36103

I933WB 9+6308 +6114:0 9+63+4 16111 9-+6304- 9+:60++

I933EB 9+363:84 +61-+ 9+36+: 16111 9+86011:8 9+-6333

I940E NB =N!&t !" I93> +:6-+-03 +6+81 +36-8 16111 +3648:- +6348

I940E SB =N!&t !" I93> 631484-0 +61:13 164:+ 16:+1 9+6:-:- -6043083

TH9:: NB 9868-4 +613:: 98688 16111 96131+ 9364-4:8

TH9:: SB 963040 +61433+ 96+40 16111 9++63-+- 9:63-01:3

I940E NB =S!ut !" I933> 986-44-34 +61:4-0 9061 16111 9644:10 936+-3-

I940E SB =S!ut !" I933> 96+-833 +6+4-0 96:0- 16111 9+-6+4-: 9:68-0+

C!#sta#t :-6:- 6:3-++3:6-+8 16111 :+6344++ :3643-03



44




A..e#d'< 7

Re(&ess'!# Resu/t7 I#c'de#t F&ee 3711 PM 0711 PM

S!u&ce SS d" MS Nu)2e& !" !2s 4:F= -:, 1> 3086:4

M!de/ +1-0+4+630 -: 4:8:64+4 P&!2 F 161111

Res'dua/ :3181+6- 1 46+-848+ R9s@ua&ed 16018 Ad R9s@ua&ed 160:4

T!ta/ +:80:4464: 48 +:60::4:R!!t MSE 6++:0



De#s't 96-8+:48: 6113833 904618 16111 96-:+-:-+ 96-0--1+3

Ra). Mete& 464+:8 6-840+1: +36-+ 16111 463+0--8 36334+

VMS 946++040 6-084080 9+-6+04 16111 9468+:14 9-68+-8:

C!#cu&&e#t HOV 9--613:30 +6+84 9+644 16111 9-364:+: 9+68::3

Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV 9-:6438: 6:804 9-6-3 16111 9-6:1: 9-0684

T;!9La#e 46-8:04 +61018- 46++1 1611- +6-11+0 064-:+:+

T&ee9La#e +63-81+ 63810 +633 16+3 9601313-0 4640818-

F!u&9La#e 9364+40: 68-04: 986- 16111 906031484 94618:4

I940E NB =S!ut !" I93> 9+064+3 +61-4: 9+06081 16111 9+:64 9+46-3:

I940E SB =S!ut !" I93> 9-16341- +61::8+: 9+688 16111 9--60013 9+64-083

I943WB :6+:131 64-+14+ :684 16111 06434-:+ 6:033

I943EB d&!..ed

I940W NB 06041440 6+0:3: 8614 16111 46:40-0 :64-03+-

I940W SB d&!..ed

I93WB 986-1-4 6:-3840 9600 16111 9:68--3- 936:+48

I93EB 9+-6--33 6:30-: 9+:6-10 16111 9+36-440 9++648+0-

I93NB d&!..ed

I93SB 9+-6-+1+- 688431+ 9+6314 16111 9+460+18 9+16103

I933NB 9-46-188 +6+130 9-+6113 16111 9-064:384 9-+613-8

I933SB 9-:64830 +6100-84 9-0640 16111 9-634:1+ 9-06-

I983WB 9+631:+ 60083+ 9+6-8+ 16111 9-16-13 9+86044

I983EB 9--63+810 60803 9-464:0 16111 9-36-03 9-16048-8

I933WB 9-6-4 +611++- 9-6-1: 16111 9416-1+33 9-86-:808

I933EB 94+6+48 +61-4+0+ 94+613 16111 9446+-+ 9-61:

I940E NB =N!&t !" I93> +6+44-3 +6+0:3:3 +614+ 16414 9+61:00- 4638--3

I940E SB =N!&t !" I93> 9+60++1-: +611+0- 9+648 16+88 94683::: 68-0--4

TH9:: NB 9+-64+14+ +6108+- 9++68- 16111 9+364034 9+16-40+

TH9:: SB 986:3+- +61+0+ 98683 16111 96:4++0 936:0+3+

I940E NB =S!ut !" I933> 9+36:4484 +610-:3 9+460:8

16111

9+868+1- 9+-6818-0I940E SB =S!ut !" I933> 96433 +6+130+8 9:60+ 16111 9+16038 986-+43

C!#sta#t +6-4+: 6:4+03 +++613+16111

:6::8 -6880:+

43




A..e#d'< 7

Re(&ess'!# Resu/t7 I#c'de#t F&ee 0711 PM 8711 PM

S!u&ce SS d" MS Nu)2e& !" !2s F= -:, 81> 3:603

M!de/ +-4-83:6++ -: 30804608 P&!2 F 161111

Res'dua/ +-:8688 81 +6:01 R9s@ua&ed 1681-8

Ad R9s@ua&ed 1681+3T!ta/ -1308-46:: : -416++0R!!t MSE 60:



De#s't 9641+-00 61101++ 9816131 16111 964+++--+ 96-+33

Ra). Mete& 361-- 6-::-4 +:64-3 16111 36-03:8 064384-

VMS 9464-+1: 6-:131:0 9+-6-- 16111 9460++3 9-6:+1-0

C!#cu&&e#t HOV 968-+-33 +6-3+0:- 9:6:3 16111 9+-61001+ 9:6+:3:0

Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV 9+:603113 6:03-4 9+:604 16111 9+63030 9+06038-

T;!9La#e +6+:0-1: +6+1:1 +618- 16- 9633+ 46430400

T&ee9La#e 968-: +614803 916883 1601: 9-6:-1+88 +643408

F!u&9La#e 906+1-48 680:013 9:6:40 16111 98648- 94618:4

I940E NB =S!ut !" I93> 9463-+3- +61-4-4 9464331611+

9063-:-18 9+63+0843

I940E SB =S!ut !" I93> 9604488- +61+-1 96:4: 16111 9++68:-8 9:64383+

I943WB 46+-4 6-810 46+: 1611+ +6+:-80 06101043

I943EB d&!..ed

I940W NB 6834:0 60834:+ 6134 16111 86::304: +160-3-+

I940W SB d&!..ed

I93WB 361:1080 68:-0+1 86104 16111 -6:0-- 0643-

I93EB 9-60++34 68++++ 94683 16111 946311+ 9+6+:38

I93NB ++6414: 688-0: +86-40 16111 64+3 +-688:

I93SB d&!..ed

I933NB 9610+3 +6+30108 9:610 16111 9++6-83- 9861:-:4

I933SB 9+36-0-1 +613:83 9+46813 16111 9+86410:+ 9+-6+3:

I983WB 906141: 63:8133 986-- 16111 9:6:81814 936130000

I983EB 9+16003 6401+0 9++6810 16111 9+-6844 961-0+0+

I933WB 9+36+4+40 +61+::8 9+463 16111 9+86+-83: 9+-6+48-3

I933EB 9+63-030 +61888 9+6+:: 16111 9-+60-143 9+:644108

I940E NB =N!&t !" I93> +46:+:+ +6-+4- ++630 16111 ++60+00 +8648+

I940E SB =N!&t !" I93> ++60-+43 +6++-08+ +16408 16111 643138- +46:1---

TH9:: NB 63++1-8 +61014-0 164+ 1688 9+683:: -638:4

TH9:: SB 06:3080 +61-004 06818 16111 46:4+0 :6:030

I940E NB =S!ut !" I933> 9+60+14+3 +61+-+ 9+644 16+8: 946801:44 6841+13:

I940E SB =S!ut !" I933> 060+8+80 +6+-:130 363 16111 464188 :6:-0343

C!#sta#t :+6433 68338:+ ++1688:16111

:1611- :-681::

40




A..e#d'< +17

Re(&ess'!# Resu/t7 I#c'de#t :711 AM 711 AM

S!u&ce SS d" MS Nu)2e& !" !2s 480F= 4-, 44-> -6-:

M!de/ 088-61040 4- +83634+: P&!2 F 161111

Res'dua/ -+364:08 44- 80638+38 R9s@ua&ed 16:4+0

Ad R9s@ua&ed 16:10:T!ta/ +00863-+ 483 --36108+-3

R!!t MSE 6+-1



De#s't 916:0+43 1614-0- 9--61+ 16111 916+8+8 916880-

Ra). Mete& -643+ -613840 +6348 16+0- 9+618 8680-

VMS 9-6+-0 +648318 9-6+- 161- 9068:8 9164183

H'(;a He/.e& ++634+0 368+- -633 161+0 -6-+03-3 -1688-:

C!#cu&&e#t HOV +36083-0 68--414 +68 161- 9-648 4+60-03

Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV -63+443 631:48 16-: 16::3 9+36+-0+ +60+:8

T;!9La#e 36-+-3-8 06104+ 1644 16310 906:-4 +36+03+0

T&ee9La#e 9+684 36::830 916434 16:4- 9++6131- :6:83-10

F!u&9La#e 9+6-:1++ 4608::3+ 916408 16:-- 96-43 06:3++8

I940E NB =S!ut !" I93> -168+- 868-880 46+-- 1611- :6800:03 446:-8-

I940E SB =S!ut !" I93> ++601-4 860:-43 +6:33 161- 9+63:3:- -36310

I943WB 6133 3611+: -61- 16133 16-+1:8 +068

I943EB =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA

I940W NB =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA

I940W SB 9--6+8:- 06+-+4 9364- 16111 94-6-3-8 9+-61+

I93WB 36:433-- 608308 16004 160+ 9+-6++4 -+60-80

I93EB 460-: 6:0-:+ 16333 1680: 9+4644- -+6+1448

I93NB 9861:4- 6-38-0 91680: 160+- 9-36-8+ +-6++03

I93SB 0681110 6+4::+4 168+4 1603 9+-64:3- -460:81-

I933NB 93600:8 680800 9160+3 1681: 9-+6: +-61+

I933SB 1630:3 63+8:+ 16103 160: 9+861 +:61+3:

I983WB -6::+8 6+314 16433 16:4+ 9+46-+30 +6++3

I983EB 361400 684-: 16310 1680 9+06000 -46848

I933WB +6343 6--33 16-48 16+4 9+36-40- +6+--+8

I933EB 46-083- :6:0310 163 1684- 9++684+ +60+343

I940E NB =N!&t !" I93> +06-+- 6:884 +608- 16++ 9468148 43603--

I940E SB =N!&t !" I93> +0683:- 614-3 +63 1610- 916+033 4+633

TH9:: NB +3618:3 :6313 +6- 1618+ 91684:: -64--0

TH9:: SB 9:634-4 68-+33 9168 1648 9-36334 63::-0

I940E NB =S!ut !" I933> =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA

I940E SB =S!ut !" I933> =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA

Sec!#d U.st&ea) 46+3+ 463+0180 +6+38 16-04 9-614: +1684+

F'&st U.st&ea) 86080+: 46341- +60 1618 916-83 +463+8::

W't'# -6043 460+4:0- 16:4 1638+ 9364+03 60100+4

F'&st d!;#st&ea) 363-1:4 4634443 +6- 16+ 9-6444- ++6+:388

Sec!#d d!;#st&ea) 060-:+:: 4641-8 +684+ 16+13 9+6+40 +-6+40

C!#sta#t 06+-1- 634::+0 :611:16111

3-60--1 :06:+44

48




A..e#d'< ++7

Re(&ess'!# Resu/t7 I#c'de#t 711 AM 711 AM

S!u&ce SS d" MS Nu)2e& !" !2s 4:1F= 4+, 44> 446:-

M!de/ 8810361: 4+ -+416:::40 P&!2 F 161111

Res'dua/ -+4006+4 44 846++1+:4 R9s@ua&ed 16:00: Ad R9s@ua&ed 16:444

T!ta/ :316-+ 48 -486+0-- R!!t MSE :638



De#s't 9160+8+ 161-0-+ 9--60-0 16111 91684-3 916041-

Ra). Mete& 9164188 -6-08+0 916+43 163 936--+ 36-118

VMS 946-338+ +6-8:03+ 9-608 161++ 906:4: 916:0+40

H'(;a He/.e& 6-03+ 0648+0 +6:+ 161: 9+64313- +63

C!#cu&&e#t HOV 963-3+ 6+-38:0 9+6+8 16-3: 9-063100 8600:+18

Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV 9360:+0 :63:438 9168+3 1603 9+6-:0 +16++4-

T;!9La#e 6-004 0601-4 +603: 16+-4 9-60+80 -+61-0

T&ee9La#e 061410 06:-0+4 16: 164 986-4104 +86---0

F!u&9La#e 46:814: 36-3 16:: 16348 906:4134 +46-0++

I940E NB =S!ut !" I93> +46383-3 06104: -6883 1611 460-43-- -463101:

I940E SB =S!ut !" I93> 644:4 06+3-++ +6:+ 161: 9+6-10 +6303

I943WB 63:03 -68-40 463:8 1611+ 364+3-- +060:1

I943EB =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA


I940W SB =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA

I93WB 9-68184 :64--- 91643- 16:4- 9+618: +-6:-03

I93EB 16-:3+ 61:034 16143 16:4 9+068- +86+8:3

I93NB =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA

I93SB 6+:-:: 68++- +610: 16-+ 9:6133- -86-38

I933NB 96:030 :6881: 9+6+3: 16-0- 9-46034 86-4480

I933SB 9+16++4 :63:-40 9+638 16+30 9-068+13 46::0+

I983WB 986+-4:3 :634-48- 916-3 163++ 9-16:344 630::4

I983EB 96:384 :63318 9+6+-3 16-8- 9-368 86:41:03

I933WB 964-- :64+1-0: 9+6+4 16-08 9--6:1-4 86108438

I933EB 9460- :6++08- 91608 160:8 9+:63 +161+14

I940E NB =N!&t !" I93> 4-6344:: 6040:38 46 16111 +06834 36--483

I940E SB =N!&t !" I93> 0610:0:8 :6-:43 1680 163 96-81+3 +64:0-

TH9:: NB 0603++- 86:18+ 16+: 163+3 9:6181- +61--3

TH9:: SB 96:4-: 6+8 9+6180 16-: 9-3608+ :64100

I940E NB =S!ut !" I933> -630: :6:4:4: 1648 16:+4 9+-64:0- +61:41


Sec!#d U.st&ea) 9-6+4+-4 +6:81: 9+6+: 16-48 906883+0 +631+84

F'&st U.st&ea) 16+44::3 +6:++: 161:0 163+ 94640- 4680:1:-

W't'# 93648:30 -614+8 9-61+ 1614: 963:0+ 916-0:-

F'&st d!;#st&ea) 1684+:4 +6+13: 1643 16:-: 9-6-3: 36+-38

Sec!#d d!;#st&ea) +6880108 +640-10 161: 16480 9+633+ 06-:3+

C!#sta#t 846+:4 :60+31+ 6440 16111 36-:0-8 :6+118



4:




A..e#d'< +-7

Re(&ess'!# Resu/t7 I#c'de#t 3711 PM 0711 PM

S!u&ce SS d" MS Nu)2e& !" !2s 4:

M!de/ 3416430 4- -843688:+3F= 4-, 403> 436-0

P&!2 F 161111

Res'dua/ -:-4-6118- 403 :86-80:+- R9s@ua&ed 16:00

Ad R9s@ua&ed 16:44T!ta/ +++03+6400 48 -68:-3 R!!t MSE 6::1



De#s't 91601-88 161-3+ 9-16++3 16111 91600++ 9163040-

Ra). Mete& 36+1+8-- -6++: +640 16103 91618:00 6-:1:

VMS 906480+ +63--:4 936+:4 16111 96:430 946+43-

H'(;a He/.e& 630430 6-:8880 +61-+ 1641 9:6-3+4 -36:4++

C!#cu&&e#t HOV 9+06:- 8603:1- 9-63++ 161+8 9-68:13 9-61:

Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV 9+-6003- 068:18 9-6+13 16148 9-36-8 916+

T;!9La#e :680:48 86+:-0:+ +6-:3 16-14 936-:4: -16110-8

T&ee9La#e 3681: 06+00 163+ 1631+ 98603:: +86431+8

F!u&9La#e 1648+::+ 36:1+8-8 161:: 164 9638 68131-

I940E NB =S!ut !" I93> 986-:3+ 6-+1- 916:0 1633 9--681- +1614343

I940E SB =S!ut !" I93> 9-61808: 86:4- 916-8 16:8: 9+06:4 ++688+8

I943WB =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA

I943EB 9-633: 46-4000: 916: 164 96-14 460+400

I940W NB ++6888+ 36881+ -64 161+: -61084- -+6-::-4

I940W SB =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA

I93WB 9161838 36:--+0 9161+0 16 964:140 6-4+34+

I93EB 964+4:0 36038:43 9+6- 1618 9+:6-00 168--84

I93NB =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA

I93SB 90640144 364-1- 9+610 16-: 9+06101+ 36433-

I933NB 9+36+++ 8603:4 9-6+00 1614- 9-860 9+6-40-+I933SB 9+:680+ 641018 9-6+0+ 1614- 9436+8 9+604+88

I983WB 96::4+ 064813 9+638 16+34 9-1603 -61-4

I983EB 9+864330 0634- 9-6:0 16114 9-:6+34 90604::

I933WB 9-16+:++ 0603:1: 946848 16111 94+6113 96-8+:

I933EB 9+:68+0 060-43: 946+8- 1611- 9-68: 98684++

I940E NB =N!&t !" I93> 8601+80 06:0 +61 16-:4 906-1:0 +64-:

I940E SB =N!&t !" I93> +6++33: 8613014 16+3 1603 9+16::34 +46114-:

TH9:: NB 9+6-8- :6+1+3- 916-0: 16:: 9+06:43 +-6+314

TH9:: SB 168-8- 86+--100 16+1- 16+ 9++63+4 +-688830

I940E NB =S!ut !" I933> =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA

I940E SB =S!ut !" I933> +161:1: 613338 +6++4 16-88 9:6:+:: -:604

Sec!#d U.st&ea) 9461384 +680+ 9-6148 16134 9:631- 916+-

F'&st U.st&ea) 946-8-4 +610:10 9-6+:3 1614 9:63::3 9164:3:

W't'# 936830 +644+4 9-68-0 1611 9684 9+6-30

F'&st d!;#st&ea) 9+6:31: +6:1018- 9+61-+ 1641 90613++ +68+-03

Sec!#d d!;#st&ea) 916-1:+ +6:14- 916++8 161 946:--+ 464+4-

C!#sta#t :+6---: 64083-8 :68+- 16111 0-6-+8+ 68-40

4




A..e#d'< +47

Re(&ess'!# Resu/t7 I#c'de#t 0711 PM 8711 PM

S!u&ce SS d" MS Nu)2e& !" !2s 3-8F= 44, 4-> -8633

M!de/ 03:46+1+ 44 -01613-- P&!2 F 161111

Res'dua/ 44864+ 4- :6304 R9s@ua&ed 16811 Ad R9s@ua&ed 16884

T!ta/ +-4863+ 3-0 -+630:8-8R!!t MSE 6:



De#s't 9163884 161-48: 9+6:+ 16111 9160+43 9163-14

Ra). Mete& 86031+3 -60-4343 -60- 161+ +60:- ++601+4

VMS 946:0-3 +633480 9-60 161+ 98601- 916+3+0

H'(;a He/.e& 9+608 +36-438 916++- 16++ 9-608+ -864848

C!#cu&&e#t HOV 9+61+:40 +8640:1: 91618- 160 9446+:0 4+6+3+-+

Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV 9861103 +06108 91630- 1680- 948631- --61+-

T;!9La#e +861+ 864--:- -6034 161++ 4683-1 -604+3+

T&ee9La#e ++638-4 8613:3- +68 1610 9163-+-- -4640:8

F!u&9La#e 860+1-8+ 368381++ +631+ 16+8- 9-68-40 +068333

I940E NB =S!ut !" I93> 9861:043 368:4080 9+64 16+3 9+06-84: 46++410

I940E SB =S!ut !" I93> 96:: 06++1+8 9+604 1610- 9-161-83 1618:10+

I943WB =d&!..ed> NA NA NA NA NA

I943EB 9+633:88 4604+ 916313 1688 963-+8 06084-


I940W SB 96:3803 6--88-4 9+6+0 16-4: 9-06-13 863-:-4

I93WB 16318- +063++1- 16180 163 9-64130 4+6--88

I93EB 946-+404 +0633++ 916-1 1640 944600 -:6+0:

I93NB 4468-848 +061308 -6++3 16140 -640:308 8360-:

I93SB 0684848 +06048 16404 16:-3 9-06:- 4:611+:+

I933NB 963:+4 +06401+ 9168+: 1604 94688:8 -16:-013

I933SB 9+46 +0604 9163 164:- 933634 +86881-

I983WB 9-63+1 +0601+4 916+08 16:8 94-618 -61:43

I983EB 963++3 +061:34 91600 160:: 9461:4 -+6-0+

I933WB 9+36088 +36-+4 916: 164- 9346443 +36:31-

I933EB 9+46+88: +36+ 9163 164:: 93-634:- +86+14:

I940E NB =N!&t !" I93> 916+0:+3 +06-+: 9161+ 16- 9416--+0 -61:+

I940E SB =N!&t !" I93> 464-18: +06-38 16--- 16-0 9-8603 4464843

TH9:: NB 9+6-++8 +:640 91618 1638 9486-4 446811-

TH9:: SB 86414-0 +061-8 163+ 168:8 9-4648 406:848I940E NB =S!ut !" I933> 93613:8+ +16-8 9164:3 16:1 9-06444 +:6-484


Sec!#d U.st&ea) 9+6:8-3 -6008+-8 9168- 163 986:48: 46-0:++

F'&st U.st&ea) 9461- -63883 9+6033 16+-4 9680- +6131-+

W't'# 9063 -608014 9-64 161-- 9+163+ 91600

F'&st d!;#st&ea) 9-630+4- -648140 9+61-4 1641: 9:6+8-1+ -6-0484

Sec!#d d!;#st&ea) 916-141: -601::+- 9161+ 1640 906+444- 36:-:+:-

C!#sta#t 8-6040 :600+4 611-16111

3:63+3 :641+



4




A##endi9 1& !ase st)dy II regression res)lts&

S!u&ce SS d" MS

M!de/ +46344 : +63::10Res'dua/ -416-33414 1 -600-:114

T!ta/ 486+-88 : 4618++1-:

Nu)2e& !" !2s

F= :, 1> :6:8P&!2 F 161111R9s@ua&ed 164:83

Ad R9s@ua&ed 164-:

R!!t MSE +600

Res#onse +ariable & Incident Rate

Predictor +ariable C!e""'c'e#t Std6 E&&6 t P[t[ 0 C!#"6 I#te&*a/

I#te&sect'!# De#s't +641-3+3 60+3414- -604- 161+4 6-188++ -64-3+8:

Ra). Mete& 9+61:+43 64-38+1- 946411 1611+ 9+6:+8-40 963-8330+

VMS De#s't 36+:-4 +60+043 -6+4 16140 6-0::8: 6131+

H'(;a He/.e& +633034 6380+00 4610 16114 60+0:8 -64+4+

C!#cu&&e#t HOV '# I940W 6-4+001- 6083:43 16-:1 16: 9+6383 +64413

C!#cu&&e#t HOV '# I943 963130: 6804:1- 9+61: 16-1 9-680888 6:::0+

Ba&&'e&9se.a&ated HOV '# I943 -63818 61+-:14 -6:41 1611 68:14- 36-0+4

C!#sta#t 9+6-44: 6::+-1- 9+6811 16++4 9-6:88+04 6-3+-0



31

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