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http://sesp.ui.ac.id/

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Kebijakan Ketahanan EnergiSesuai Konsep Nexus

FDG Lintas Komtek Pangan & Pertanian dan Energi

Sinergi Riset dan Innovasi BioEnergi pada Era Industri4.0 untuk Mendukung Ketahanan Energi dan Pangan

Widodo Wahyu PurwantoKomtek Energi

Dewan Riset Nasional

Outline

Isu Penting Sektor EnergiKetahanan Energi. Definisi & ESIKetahanan Energi & NexusRekomendasi

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Isu PentingSektor Energi

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Ketergantungan import BBM

‐160

‐140

‐120

‐100

‐80

‐60

‐40

‐20

0

20

40

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

%

Tahun

Australia

China

India

Indonesia

Japan

South Korea

New Zeland

Thailand

Source: OPEC, 2014, 20174

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Ketergantungan impor LPG

‐80,00

‐70,00

‐60,00

‐50,00

‐40,00

‐30,00

‐20,00

‐10,00

0,00

10,00

(%)

Tahun

Source: MEMR, 2017 5

Stockholding minyak terbatas

APEC: Minimum holding of 30 days of net import levelIEA: Minimum holding of 90 days of net import level

Indonesia 21 hari dari konsumsi ?

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Trade specialization index% permintaan listrik menurun

Source: ABD, 2014

• Demand electricity <• consumptive &

services sector > • Manufacture sector <

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Produktivitas sektoral rendah

Source: IRENA, 2017

Source: Vivadinar et al, Energy Sci and Eng, 20168

Transportation sector

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High CO2 intensity of electricity

Source: IEA, 2016

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Era digitalization in energy, In which area of energy business

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Digitalization is transforming the way the electricity system functions

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The different building blocks of electricity markets

Source: IEA12

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Electrification of heating and transport and blockchain trading system

Source: IEA13

Ketahanan Energi. Definisi dan ESI

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Definisi ketahanan energiIEA, ketahanan energi adalah “the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price”.

EU, ketahanan energy adalah “the uninterrupted physical availability of energy products on the market, at a price which is affordable for all consumers (private and industrial)”.

Definisi ketahanan energi jangka panjang: 4A, 4AS: WEC (ESI/ETI), WEF (EAPI), Yergin, Sovacool (ESI), Ang (ISI)

Definisi ketahanan energi bersifat kontektual (tergantung pembuat/pengguna) dan dinamis, indikator, weighting danmetode scoring yang variatif, isu spasial.

Riset energy security relatif masih baru dalam sisi metodologi, belum ada prosedur yang dapat diterima secara luas.

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“Security, independence, and sustainability: Imprecise language and the manipulation of energy policy in the United States”, Littlefield, Energy Policy, 2013.

“Three blind men and a elephant: The case of energy indices to measure energy security and energy sustainability”, Narula & Reddy, Energy, 2015

“Energy security is a politicized and multifaceted topic. There is a considerable array of overlapping and competing conceptualizations”, Cox, Energy Research & Social Science, 2016

“Arbitrariness in Multidimensional Energy Security Indicators”,

Valdes, Ecological Economics, 2018

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Short-term Energy Security (MOSES)- IEA

MOSES focuses on short‐term energy security: vulnerability to physical disruptions.Taking an energy systems approach, MOSES identifies a set of indicators for externalrisks (from energy imports) and for domestic risks (from transformation anddistribution) as well as for resilience – a country’s capacity to deal withdifferent types of disruptions.

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Short-term Energy Security (MOSES)- IEA

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Selft sufficiency index

Source: ADB, 201319

Energy security index (ESI) - Sovacool

Source: Sovacool et al. 2011, 201320

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Energy Sustainability Index (ESI)/Energy Trilemma Index (ETI) - WEC

Source: WEC, 201721

ETI Indonesia

Source: WEC, 201722

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Energy achitecture performance index(EAPI)- WEF

Source: WEF, 201723

Indonesia

Source: WEF, 2017

EAPI Indonesia

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Energy Security Index Indonesia

25Source: Erahman et al, 2016

Metode PCA dalam Energy Security

AVA 1

AVA 2

AVA 3

AVA 4

AVA 5

AFF 1

AFF 2

ACS 1

ACS 2

ACS 3

ACP 1

ACP 2

EFF 1

EFF 2

PCA

Eigenvalue Komponen 1

Eigenvalue Komponen 2

Eigenvalue Komponen 3

Nilai Indikator pada Komponen 1 :

AVA1, AVA2, AVA3, AV A4, AVA5, AFF1,

AFF2, ACS1, ACS2, ACS3, ACP1, ACP2, EFF1, EFF2

Nilai indikator pada komponen 2 :

AVA1, AVA2, AVA3, AV A4, AVA5, AFF1,

AFF2, ACS1, ACS2, ACS3, ACP1, ACP2, EFF1, EFF2

Nilai indikator pada komponen 3 :

AVA1, AVA2, AVA3, AV A4, AVA5, AFF1,

AFF2, ACS1, ACS2, ACS3, ACP1, ACP2, EFF1, EFF2

Nilai Komponen Tertimbang

ESI

Input Nilai Indikator Output PCA Pembobotan Aggregasi

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• Acceptability & Efficiency <

Energy Security Index (BAU)

Kedepan• Affordability, Accessibility,

Efficiency >>• Availability & Acceptability <<

peran Bioenergi >>

28Source: Qodri, 2018

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Kebijakan ketahanan energinasional

• PP No. 79/2014 KEN

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• Dimensi ESI OK • Indikator kurang rasional• Tidak dimonitor setiap tahun

dengan metode yang sama sehingga bisadievaluasi profilnya

• Implementasi Dana Ketahanan Energi?

Konsep ketahanan energi - DEN

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Source: DEN

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Ketahanan Energi & Nexus

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Apa itu Nexus?The Nexus perspective focuses on the interdependence of water, energy, food (WEF)

Its objectives are:• improve energy, water, and food security in an increasing resource‐

constrained world• support transition to sustainability.

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Cara pandang ketahanan W-E-F

Solutions often treat food security, water and energy separately.

But they need to be seen as interdependent

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Tantangan Nexus 2050

Policy makers, therefore, need to identify integrated solutionsthat can address trade-offs and maximize security across all sectors

Source: IRENA, 2015 34

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Interaction various elements of the water–energy–food nexus

Source: IRENA, 2015 35

Pertanyaan penting water-food-energy nexus

Self sufficiency

How will climate change and population growth affect domestic and agricultural supplies?

How will food production change in the future? Long‐term trends and short‐term variability

Will the country become dependent on foreign energy supplies? How will climate variability affect future production?

Water

Food

Energy

Security

Will the price of water increase to an unsustainable level for part of the population?

How will local production and world food price trends and fluctuations affect the price of food for the population?

How will local production and world energy price trends and fluctuations affect the price of energy for the population?

Source: UCL 36

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Risks and impacts within the energy–food nexus

Source: IRENA, 2015 37

Direct and indirect energy inputs at different stages of the food sector

Source: IRENA, 2015 38

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Oil-foods interlinkage

Source: LMC 39

Food based feedstock vs oil price

Source: IEA, 2013

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Risks and impacts within the water–energy nexus

Source: IRENA, 201541

Amount of energy required to provide 1 m3 of water safe for human consumption

42Source: IRENA, 2015

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Water withdrawal and consumption for value chain of energies

43Source: IRENA, 2015

Risks and impacts within the water–food nexus

Source: IRENA, 201544

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Biomass to biofuels technology pathays

Source: USAID

Biaya pokok produksiBBN

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Sustainable biodiesel industry model Biodiesel Sustianability Model

Sustainability Impact Macro Sub-Model

Environment ModuleSocio - Tech

Module

Biodiesel Micro

Sub-Model

Economic Module

Integrated Chain

Production

Agri Serv Ind

GovernmentIncome

Expend

HouseholdGHG

Emission

Land Clearing and Plantation

CPO Factory Biodiesel Biodiesel Price &

Demand Module

Sustainable Indicator

Land Clearing Rate & Types

PlantationExpansion Decision

Financial Social LCA Environment

Single Chain

Expansion Decision

Extraction

Balance

Relative Prices

International Trade

Investment

Population

Employment

Income Distribution

Technology Life E

xpecta

ncy

Climate Change

Forest Water

Energy Module

Energy Demand

Residential Serv IndTransp

ort

Oil

ProdExplora

tionNational

Price

Sustainable Indicators

Social

Economy

Environ-ment

Energy Mix

Biodiesel Volume

Policy scenarios

Business as Usual

(BAU)

State-owned

enterprise(SOE)

Domestic Market

Obligation(DMO)

Land productivity types

High Low High

Ownership structure

Independent

Integrated Integrated

Land clearing methods

Slash and Burn

Slash only Slash and Burn

CPO procurement price

Market price

Producer price

Margin 30% Producer price

Source: Akhmad et al, 2011 47

System boundary of a genericbiofuel life cycle

Source: Stapgef, 2015

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Multi-scale of biofuel R&D

Multi-scales, spacial, stakeholders, temporal, objectives of FEW nexus

Source: Gracia & You, 201650

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Energy-water flows

Source: DOE51

Nexus resource flows

Source: Bijl et al, 2018 52

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Source: GCP & WCS

Rekomendasi

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Rekomendasiketahanan energi nexus

Kuantifikasi kinerja ESI nasional secara berkala sehingga profil indicator 4A, capaian tujuan KEN, dapat terukur.

Membuat dashboard skor ESI tahunan dan melakukananalisis gap antara target dan capaian dalam policy brief.

Mengintegrasi kebijakan ketahanan pangan, energi dan air dengan mempertimbangkan keterkaitannya.

Peran penting bioenergi/RE untuk peningkatan ketahanannexus ke depan perlu langkah nyata.

Melaksanakan riset dan inovasi lintas disiplin FEW nasionaldan analisis Kebijakan ketahanan nexus Indonesia yang dapat meningkatkan sinergi sektoral nexus.

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Terimakasih

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