data penulis - repository.maranatha.edu filejudul tugas akhir : usulan pengendalian persediaan bahan...

DATA PENULIS

Nama : Ii Surya Yanti

Alamat di Bandung : Babakan Jeruk Indah II No. 1, Bandung

Alamat asal : Jl. Cimanuk No. 145, Garut

No. Telp Bandung : 022 2006406

No. Telp Asal : 0262 231731

No. Handphone : 081 3210 56700

Pendidikan : SMU Trinitas, Bandung

Jurusan Teknik Industri Universitas Kristen Maranatha

Nilai Tugas Akhir : A

Tanggal USTA : 11 Februari 2005

KOMENTAR DOSEN PENGUJI

Nama Mahasiswa : Ii Surya Yanti

NRP : 0023055

Judul Tugas Akhir : Usulan Pengendalian Persediaan Bahan Baku Produk IC

di PT. Omedata Electronics Bandung

Komentar-komentar Dosen Penguji :

1. Periksa kelengkapan halaman dan kesalahan pengetikan.

2. Alasan penggunaan Wagner Whitin

3. Ukuran lot minimal untuk setiap bahan baku harus dicantumkan.

Company Head

Secretary Document Control

Procurement &

Logistic DirectorIT & MIS Director

HR, Plant Facility &

GA Director/Deputy

Finance &

Accounting Director

Marketing &

Bussiness Devt

Director

QA & CS Director/

Deputy

Manufacturing

Director

Purchasing

Material Control

Store

Receiving

Sistem Analis

Sistem Engineer

Training

Security

Facilities

Klinik

General

Cary

Financial

Planning Control

Customer Service

Incoming Quality

Control

Quality Assurance

Struktur Organisasi Pusat

Manufacturing

Director / Deputy

Secretary

Production Manager

Maintenance

Section

Head

Production

Section

Head

Preventive

Maintenance

Supervisor

Maintenance

Engineering

Line

Maintenance

Supervisor

Bake BoyMaterial

Handler

Production

Supervisor

Preventive

Maintenance

Technicians

Line

Technicians

Lead

Operator

Operator

Specialist IE & CAD

Draftman IE Engineer

Process Engineering

Manager

Qualteam

Engineer

Equipment

& Project

Engineer

Process

Engineer

Struktur Organisasi Manufacturing Director

Forecast Result for PDIP 18.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data SEST Error Signal

1 1731160.00 2 1683224.00 1731160.00 -47936.00 47936.00 -1.00

3 1481347.00 1715820.38 -234473.38 141204.69 -2.00

4 1447205.00 1635036.63 -187831.63 156747.00 -3.00

5 1594196.00 1541041.25 53154.75 130848.94 -3.19

6 1372952.00 1501621.88 -128669.88 130413.13 -4.18

7 2200284.00 1410397.13 789886.88 240325.42 1.02 0.20

8 1801735.00 1597670.13 204064.88 235145.34 1.91 0.23

9 2007453.00 1692266.63 315186.38 245150.47 3.11 0.28

10 2270808.00 1846909.75 423898.25 265011.34 4.48 0.34

11 2280931.00 2074163.00 206768.00 259187.00 5.38 0.46

12 1574802.00 2282802.25 -708000.25 299988.22 2.29 0.60 13 2509306.00 2223528.00 285778.00 298804.03 3.25 0.58

14 1715766.00 2397302.50 -681536.50 328245.00 0.88 0.75

15 2341840.00 2295830.00 46010.00 308085.34 1.09 0.77

16 2475541.00 2345388.00 130153.00 296223.19 1.57 0.76

17 2433614.00 2427392.75 6221.25 278098.06 1.70 0.79

18 2700911.00 2485357.75 215553.25 274418.94 2.51 0.76 19 2603608.00 2611055.75 -7447.75 259587.22 2.62 0.80

20 2974675.00 2691259.75 283415.25 260841.31 3.70 0.76

21 3049113.00 2863646.00 185467.00 257072.59 4.47 0.76

22 1630334.00 3038699.00 -1408365.00 311896.06 -0.83 0.88

23 3170078.00 2725981.75 444096.25 317905.13 0.58 0.79

24 1959939.00 2837048.25 -877109.25 342218.34 -2.02 0.86 25 2578620.75

26 2495615.00

27 2412609.25

28 2329603.50

29 2246597.75 30 2163592.00

31 2080586.25

32 1997580.50

33 1914574.75

34 1831569.00

35 1748563.25 36 1665557.50

MAD 342218.34

Trk.Signal -2.02

R-square 0.86

Alpha=0.2 Beta=0.6

F(0)=1.73E6

T(0)=0

Forecast Result for PDIP 18.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data DEST Error Signal

1 1731160.00 2 1683224.00 1731160.00 -47936.00 47936.00 -1.00

3 1481347.00 1702398.50 -221051.50 134493.75 -2.00

4 1447205.00 1565453.50 -118248.50 129078.66 -3.00

5 1594196.00 1470295.75 123900.25 127784.06 -2.06

6 1372952.00 1509784.63 -136832.63 129593.77 -3.09

7 2200284.00 1403984.75 796299.25 240711.36 1.65 0.25

8 1801735.00 1845749.00 -44014.00 212611.73 1.66 0.36

9 2007453.00 1854992.50 152460.50 205092.83 2.46 0.41

10 2270808.00 1978159.50 292648.50 214821.23 3.71 0.44

11 2280931.00 2199160.75 81770.25 201516.14 4.36 0.57

12 1574802.00 2319973.25 -745171.25 250939.31 0.53 0.75 13 2509306.00 1951980.25 557325.75 276471.53 2.50 0.58

14 1715766.00 2298420.00 -582654.00 300024.03 0.36 0.69

15 2341840.00 2011031.13 330808.88 302222.94 1.45 0.63

16 2475541.00 2219281.25 256259.75 299158.72 2.33 0.60

17 2433614.00 2412574.50 21039.50 281776.28 2.54 0.65

18 2700911.00 2487799.00 213112.00 277737.22 3.35 0.65 19 2603608.00 2680160.50 -76552.50 266560.28 3.20 0.73

20 2974675.00 2717903.50 256771.50 266045.09 4.17 0.71

21 3049113.00 2948751.25 100361.75 257760.91 4.70 0.75

22 1630334.00 3108862.50 -1478528.50 315892.69 -0.85 0.90

23 3170078.00 2330672.25 839405.75 339688.72 1.68 0.75

24 1959939.00 2810175.00 -850236.00 361886.44 -0.77 0.82 25 2351439.25

26 2326323.75

27 2301208.25

28 2276092.75

29 2250977.25 30 2225861.75

31 2200746.25

32 2175630.75

33 2150515.25

34 2125399.75

35 2100284.25 36 2075168.75

MAD 361886.44

Trk.Signal -0.77

R-square 0.82

Alpha=0.3 F(0)=1.73E6

F'(0)=1.73E6

Forecast Result for PDIP 18.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data 2-MAT 3-MAT Error Signal

1 1731160.00 2 1683224.00

3 1481347.00 1635288.00

4 1447205.00 1279470.00 1382097.38 65107.63 65107.63 1.00

5 1594196.00 1413063.00 1301239.63 292956.38 179032.00 2.00

6 1372952.00 1741187.00 1620431.38 -247479.38 201847.80 0.55

7 2200284.00 1151708.00 1397197.50 803086.50 352157.47 2.59 0.62

8 1801735.00 3027616.00 2328564.50 -526829.50 387091.88 1.00

9 2007453.00 1403186.00 2220438.50 -212985.50 358074.16 0.49

10 2270808.00 2213171.00 1810324.63 460483.38 372704.06 1.70

11 2280931.00 2534163.00 2495736.00 -214805.00 352966.69 1.19

12 1574802.00 2291054.00 2459872.50 -885070.50 412089.34 -1.13 13 2509306.00 868673.00 1346171.13 1163134.88 487193.91 1.43

14 1715766.00 3443810.00 2350051.00 -634285.00 500565.81 0.13

15 2341840.00 922226.00 2074251.25 267588.75 481151.09 0.69

16 2475541.00 2967914.00 2021500.50 454040.50 479065.66 1.64

17 2433614.00 2609242.00 2937486.25 -503872.25 480837.56 0.58

18 2700911.00 2391687.00 2508767.75 192143.25 461591.28 1.03 19 2603608.00 2968208.00 2762053.50 -158445.50 442644.66 0.71

20 2974675.00 2506305.00 2749366.25 225308.75 429860.19 1.26

21 3049113.00 3345742.00 3033489.75 15623.25 406847.00 1.37

22 1630334.00 3123551.00 3321297.50 -1690963.50 474432.09 -2.39

23 3170078.00 211555.00 1207026.50 1963051.50 548863.13 1.51

24 1959939.00 4709822.00 2737466.75 -777527.75 559751.88 0.09 25 749800.00 2583049.00

26 -460339.00 2747848.50

27 -1670478.00 2912648.00

28 -2880617.00 3077447.50

29 -4090756.00 3242247.00 30 -5300895.00 3407046.50

31 -6511034.00 3571846.00

32 -7721173.00 3736645.50

33 -8931312.00 3901445.00

34 -10141451.00 4066244.50

35 -11351590.00 4231044.00 36 -12561729.00 4395843.50

MAD 857892.19 559751.88

Trk.Signal -1.35 0.09

R-square

m=2 m=3

Forecast Result for PDIP 18.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data LR Error Signal

1 1731160.00 1538855.88 192304.13 192304.13 1.00 2 1683224.00 1589864.25 93359.75 142831.94 2.00

3 1481347.00 1640872.50 -159525.50 148396.45 0.85 0.30

4 1447205.00 1691880.75 -244675.75 172466.28 -0.69 0.27

5 1594196.00 1742889.13 -148693.13 167711.66 -1.59 0.66

6 1372952.00 1793897.38 -420945.38 209917.27 -3.28

7 2200284.00 1844905.63 355378.38 230697.42 -1.44 0.19

8 1801735.00 1895914.00 -94179.00 213632.63 -2.00 0.27

9 2007453.00 1946922.25 60530.75 196621.31 -1.86 0.29

10 2270808.00 1997930.50 272877.50 204246.92 -0.46 0.25

11 2280931.00 2048938.88 231992.13 206769.23 0.67 0.26

12 1574802.00 2099947.25 -525145.25 233300.56 -1.66 0.33 13 2509306.00 2150955.50 358350.50 242919.78 -0.12 0.29

14 1715766.00 2201963.75 -486197.75 260296.78 -1.98 0.37

15 2341840.00 2252972.00 88868.00 248868.20 -1.71 0.39

16 2475541.00 2303980.25 171560.75 244036.48 -1.04 0.39

17 2433614.00 2354988.50 78625.50 234306.42 7-0.75 0.42

18 2700911.00 2405997.00 294914.00 237673.50 0.50 0.41 19 2603608.00 2457005.25 146602.75 232880.31 1.14 0.43

20 2974675.00 2508013.50 466661.50 244569.38 3.00 0.41

21 3049113.00 2559021.75 490091.25 256260.91 4.77 0.39

22 1630334.00 2610030.00 -979696.00 289144.31 0.84 0.42

23 3170078.00 2661038.25 509039.75 298705.00 2.52 0.40

24 1959939.00 2712046.75 -752107.75 317596.78 0.00 0.45 25 2763055.00

26 2814063.25

27 2865071.50

28 2916079.75

29 2967088.00 30 3018096.50

31 3069104.75

32 3120113.00

33 3171121.25

34 3222129.50

35 3273138.00 36 3324146.25

MAD 317596.78

Trk.Signal 0.00

R-square 0.45

Y-intercept=1.49E6 Slope=51008.29

Forecast Result for PDIP 18.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data HWA Error Signal

1 1731160.00 2 1683224.00 1731160.00 -47936.00 47936.00 -1.00

3 1481347.00 1715820.38 -234473.38 141204.69 -2.00

4 1447205.00 1635036.63 -187831.63 156747.00 -3.00

5 1594196.00 1541041.25 53154.75 130848.94 -3.19

6 1372952.00 1501621.88 -128669.88 130413.13 -4.18

7 2200284.00 1410397.13 789886.88 240325.42 1.02 0.20

8 1801735.00 1597670.13 204064.88 235145.34 1.91 0.23

9 2007453.00 1692266.63 315186.38 245150.47 3.11 0.28

10 2270808.00 1846909.75 423898.25 265011.34 4.48 0.34

11 2280931.00 2074163.00 206768.00 259187.00 5.38 0.46

12 1574802.00 2282802.25 -708000.25 299988.22 2.29 0.60 13 2509306.00 2223528.00 285778.00 298804.03 3.25 0.58

14 1715766.00 2397302.50 -681536.50 328245.00 0.88 0.75

15 2341840.00 2295830.00 46010.00 308085.34 1.09 0.77

16 2475541.00 2345388.00 130153.00 296223.19 1.57 0.76

17 2433614.00 2427392.75 6221.25 278098.06 1.70 0.79

18 2700911.00 2485357.75 215553.25 274418.94 2.51 0.76 19 2603608.00 2611055.75 -7447.75 259587.22 2.62 0.80

20 2974675.00 2691259.75 283415.25 260841.31 3.70 0.76

21 3049113.00 2863646.00 185467.00 257072.59 4.47 0.76

22 1630334.00 3038699.00 -1408365.00 311896.06 -0.83 0.88

23 3170078.00 2725981.75 444096.25 317905.13 0.58 0.79

24 1959939.00 2837048.25 -877109.25 342218.34 -2.02 0.86 25 2578620.75

26 2495615.00

27 2412609.00

28 2329603.25

29 2246597.50 30 2163591.75

31 2080585.88

32 1997580.13

33 1914574.38

34 1831568.50

35 1748562.75 36 1665557.00

MAD 342218.34

Trk.Signal -2.02

R-square 0.86

c=1 Alpha=0.2

Beta=0.6

Gamma=0

F(0)=1.73E6

T(0)=0

S(1)=0

Forecast Result for PDIP 18.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data HWM Error Signal

1 1731160.00 2 1683224.00 1731160.00 -47936.00 47936.00 -1.00

3 1481347.00 1717270.50 -235923.50 141929.75 -2.00

4 1447205.00 1644426.63 -197221.63 160360.38 -3.00

5 1594196.00 1559735.63 34460.38 128885.38 -3.47

6 1372952.00 1522423.13 -149471.13 133002.53 -4.48

7 2200284.00 1435741.63 764542.38 238259.17 0.71 0.16

8 1801735.00 1600003.50 201731.50 233040.92 1.59 0.18

9 2007453.00 1677943.63 329509.38 245099.48 2.85 0.23

10 2270808.00 1814370.13 456437.88 268581.53 4.30 0.29

11 2280931.00 2023195.25 257735.75 267496.94 5.29 0.40

12 1574802.00 2221714.50 -646912.50 301989.28 2.54 0.49 13 2509306.00 2181369.00 327937.00 304151.59 3.60 0.50

14 1715766.00 2360576.25 -644810.25 330356.06 1.36 0.64

15 2341840.00 2289155.75 52684.25 310522.34 1.62 0.68

16 2475541.00 2355644.00 119897.00 297814.00 2.09 0.69

17 2433614.00 2447204.50 -13590.50 280050.03 2.17 0.74

18 2700911.00 2512010.00 188901.00 274688.31 2.91 0.73 19 2603608.00 2634758.25 -31150.25 261158.44 2.94 0.78

20 2974675.00 2712492.25 262182.75 261212.38 3.94 0.75

21 3049113.00 2873124.75 175988.25 256951.16 4.69 0.76

22 1630334.00 3035682.50 -1405348.50 311636.75 -0.64 0.88

23 3170078.00 2757750.25 412327.75 316213.59 0.67 0.79

24 1959939.00 2866811.50 -906872.50 341894.41 -2.03 0.87 25 2636300.25

26 2578094.75

27 2519889.25

28 2461683.75

29 2403478.25 30 2345273.00

31 2287067.50

32 2228862.00

33 2170656.50

34 2112451.00

35 2054245.63 36 1996040.13

MAD 341894.41

Trk.Signal -2.03

R-square 0.87

c=1 Alpha=0.1

Beta=1

Gamma=0.1

F(0)=1.73E6

T(0)=0

S(1)=1.00

Forecast Result for PDIP20.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data SEST Error Signal

1 359045.00 2 223000.00 359045.00 -136045.00 136045.00 -1.00

3 113402.00 345440.50 -232038.50 184041.75 -2.00

4 92574.00 322236.66 -229662.66 199248.70 -3.00

5 348896.00 299270.38 49625.63 161842.94 -3.39

6 797564.00 304232.94 493331.06 228140.55 -0.24 0.01

7 383274.00 353566.03 29707.97 195068.45 -0.13 0.01

8 329871.00 356536.84 -26665.84 171010.95 -0.30 0.01

9 215120.00 353870.25 -138750.25 166978.36 -1.14 0.03

10 468308.00 339995.22 128312.78 162682.19 -0.38 0.01

11 478305.00 352826.50 125478.50 158961.81 0.40 0.01

12 290523.00 365374.34 -74851.34 151315.41 -0.08 0.01 13 192761.00 357889.22 -165128.22 152466.48 -1.16 0.02

14 297030.00 341376.41 -44346.41 144149.55 -1.53 0.02

15 257956.00 336941.75 -78985.75 139494.98 -2.15 0.03

16 171242.00 329043.19 -157801.19 140715.41 -3.25 0.04

17 188476.00 313263.06 -124787.06 139719.88 -4.17 0.06

18 483861.00 300784.34 183076.66 142270.28 -2.81 0.04 19 463833.00 319092.00 144741.00 142407.55 -1.79 0.02

20 134577.00 333566.09 -198989.09 145385.52 -3.12 0.04

21 174744.00 313667.19 -138923.19 145062.41 -4.09 0.05

22 585351.00 299774.88 285576.13 151753.53 -2.02 0.02

23 331242.00 328332.50 2909.50 144987.89 -2.10 0.02

24 285527.00 328623.44 -43096.44 140557.83 -2.47 0.02 25 324313.78

26 324313.78

27 324313.78

28 324313.78

29 324313.78 30 324313.78

31 324313.78

32 324313.78

33 324313.78

34 324313.78

35 324313.78 36 324313.78

MAD 140557.83

Trk.Signal -2.47

R-square 0.02

Alpha=0.1 Beta=0

F(0)=359045

T(0)=0

Forecast Result for PDIP20.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data DEST Error Signal

1 359045.00 2 223000.00 359045.00 -136045.00 136045.00 -1.00

3 113402.00 359045.00 -245643.00 190844.00 -2.00

4 92574.00 359045.00 -266471.00 216053.00 -3.00

5 348896.00 359045.00 -10149.00 164577.00 -4.00

6 797564.00 359045.00 438519.00 219365.41 -1.00 0.03

7 383274.00 359045.00 24229.00 186842.67 -1.05 0.02

8 329871.00 359045.00 -29174.00 164318.58 -1.37 0.02

9 215120.00 359045.00 -143925.00 161769.38 -2.28 0.05

10 468308.00 359045.00 109263.00 155935.33 -1.66 0.02

11 478305.00 359045.00 119260.00 152267.80 -0.92 0.01

12 290523.00 359045.00 -68522.00 144654.55 -1.44 0.01 13 192761.00 359045.00 -166284.00 146457.00 -2.56 0.03

14 297030.00 359045.00 -62015.00 139961.47 -3.12 0.04

15 257956.00 359045.00 -101089.00 137184.86 -3.92 0.05

16 171242.00 359045.00 -187803.00 140559.41 -5.16 0.08

17 188476.00 359045.00 -170569.00 142435.00 -6.29 0.11

18 483861.00 359045.00 124816.00 141398.59 -5.46 0.07 19 463833.00 359045.00 104788.00 139364.67 -4.78 0.05

20 134577.00 359045.00 -224468.00 143843.80 -6.20 0.08

21 174744.00 359045.00 -184301.00 145866.66 -7.37 0.10

22 585351.00 359045.00 226306.00 149697.09 -5.67 0.05

23 331242.00 359045.00 -27803.00 144156.45 -6.08 0.06

24 285527.00 359045.00 -73518.00 141085.22 -6.74 0.06 25 359045.00

26 359045.00

27 359045.00

28 359045.00

29 359045.00 30 359045.00

31 359045.00

32 359045.00

33 359045.00

34 359045.00

35 359045.00 36 359045.00

MAD 141085.22

Trk.Signal -6.74

R-square 0.06

Alpha=0 F(0)=359045

F'(0)=359045

Forecast Result for PDIP20.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data 2-MAT 3-MAT Error Signal

1 359045.00 2 223000.00

3 113402.00 86955.00

4 92574.00 3804.00 -13827.33 106401.33 106401.33 1.00

5 348896.00 71746.00 12565.98 336330.00 221365.66 2.00

6 797564.00 605218.00 420451.31 377112.69 273281.34 3.00

7 383274.00 1246232.00 1118001.25 -734727.25 388642.81 0.22

8 329871.00 -31016.00 544289.38 -214418.38 353797.94 -0.37

9 215120.00 276468.00 35876.78 179243.22 324705.47 0.15

10 468308.00 100369.00 141267.81 327040.19 325039.00 1.16

11 478305.00 721496.00 476203.50 2101.50 284671.81 1.33

12 290523.00 488302.00 650429.56 -359906.56 293031.22 0.07 13 192761.00 102741.00 234593.97 -41832.97 267911.41 -0.08

14 297030.00 94999.00 34986.00 262044.00 267378.00 0.90

15 257956.00 401299.00 266612.03 -8656.03 245817.83 0.94

16 171242.00 218882.00 314444.38 -143202.38 237924.34 0.37

17 188476.00 84528.00 116288.44 72187.56 226086.00 0.71

18 483861.00 205710.00 136411.81 347449.19 234176.89 2.17 19 463833.00 779246.00 593812.50 -129979.50 227664.55 1.66

20 134577.00 443805.00 654081.00 -519504.00 244831.58 -0.58

21 174744.00 -194679.00 11473.69 163270.31 240300.39 0.09

22 585351.00 214911.00 -31370.22 616721.25 260112.00 2.45

23 331242.00 995958.00 748998.88 -417756.88 267994.25 0.82

24 285527.00 77133.00 520277.97 -234750.97 266411.25 -0.06 25 239812.00 100883.72

26 194097.00 -49027.73

27 148382.00 -198939.19

28 102667.00 -348850.63

29 56952.00 -498762.06 30 11237.00 -648673.50

31 -34478.00 -798584.94

32 -80193.00 -948496.38

33 -125908.00 -1098407.88

34 -171623.00 -1248319.38

35 -217338.00 -1398230.88 36 -263053.00 -1548142.38

MAD 262798.28 266411.25

Trk.Signal 0.34 -0.06

R-square

m=2 m=3

Forecast Result for PDIP20.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data LR Error Signal

1 359045.00 313305.72 45739.28 45739.28 1.00 2 223000.00 313838.88 -90838.88 68289.08 -0.66 0.11

3 113402.00 314372.00 -200970.00 112516.05 -2.19 0.67

4 92574.00 314905.13 -222331.13 139969.81 -3.35

5 348896.00 315438.25 33457.75 118667.40 -3.67 0.60

6 797564.00 315971.41 481592.59 179154.94 0.26 0.00

7 383274.00 316504.53 66769.47 163099.88 0.70 0.01

8 329871.00 317037.66 12833.34 144316.56 0.87 0.01

9 215120.00 317570.78 -102450.78 139664.81 0.17 0.00

10 468308.00 318103.94 150204.06 140718.72 1.24 0.01

11 478305.00 318637.06 159667.94 142441.39 2.34 0.03

12 290523.00 319170.19 -28647.19 132958.55 2.29 0.02 13 192761.00 319703.31 -126942.31 132495.75 1.34 0.01

14 297030.00 320236.47 -23206.47 124689.38 1.24 0.00

15 257956.00 320769.59 -62813.59 120564.33 0.76 0.00

16 171242.00 321302.72 -150060.72 122407.85 -0.47 0.00

17 188476.00 321835.84 -133359.84 123052.09 -1.56 0.00

18 483861.00 322369.00 161492.00 125187.64 -0.24 0.00 19 463833.00 322902.13 140930.88 126016.23 0.88 0.00

20 134577.00 323435.25 -188858.25 129158.34 -0.60 0.00

21 174744.00 323968.38 -149224.38 130113.86 -1.74 0.00

22 585351.00 324501.53 260849.47 136056.39 0.25 0.00

23 331242.00 325034.66 6207.34 130410.77 0.31 0.00

24 285527.00 325567.78 -40040.78 126645.35 0.00 0.00 25 326100.91

26 326634.06

27 327167.19

28 327700.31

29 328233.44 30 328766.59

31 329299.72

32 329832.84

33 330366.00

34 330899.13

35 331432.25 36 331965.38

MAD 126645.35

Trk.Signal 0.00

R-square 0.00

Y-intercept=312772.6 Slope=533.1331

Forecast Result for PDIP20.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data HWA Error Signal

1 359045.00 2 223000.00 359045.00 -136045.00 136045.00 -1.00

3 113402.00 345440.50 -232038.50 184041.75 -2.00

4 92574.00 322236.66 -229662.66 199248.70 -3.00

5 348896.00 299270.38 49625.63 161842.94 -3.39

6 797564.00 304232.94 493331.06 228140.55 -0.24 0.01

7 383274.00 353566.06 29707.94 195068.45 -0.13 0.01

8 329871.00 356536.84 -26665.84 171010.95 -0.30 0.01

9 215120.00 353870.25 -138750.25 166978.36 -1.14 0.03

10 468308.00 339995.25 128312.75 162682.19 -0.38 0.01

11 478305.00 352826.50 125478.50 158961.81 0.40 0.01

12 290523.00 365374.38 -74851.38 151315.41 -0.08 0.01 13 192761.00 357889.22 -165128.22 152466.48 -1.16 0.02

14 297030.00 341376.41 -44346.41 144149.55 -1.53 0.02

15 257956.00 336941.75 -78985.75 139494.98 -2.15 0.03

16 171242.00 329043.19 -157801.19 140715.41 -3.25 0.04

17 188476.00 313263.06 -124787.06 139719.88 -4.17 0.06

18 483861.00 300784.38 183076.63 142270.27 -2.81 0.04 19 463833.00 319092.03 144740.97 142407.53 -1.79 0.02

20 134577.00 333566.13 -198989.13 145385.50 -3.12 0.04

21 174744.00 313667.22 -138923.22 145062.39 -4.09 0.05

22 585351.00 299774.88 285576.13 151753.53 -2.02 0.02

23 331242.00 328332.50 2909.50 144987.89 -2.10 0.02

24 285527.00 328623.44 -43096.44 140557.83 -2.47 0.02 25 324313.81

26 324313.81

27 324313.81

28 324313.81

29 324313.81 30 324313.81

31 324313.81

32 324313.81

33 324313.81

34 324313.81

35 324313.81 36 324313.81

MAD 140557.83

Trk.Signal -2.47

R-square 0.02

c=1 Alpha=0

Beta=0

Gamma=0.1

F(0)=359045

T(0)=0

S(1)=0

Forecast Result for PDIP20.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data HWM Error Signal

1 359045.00 2 223000.00 359045.00 -136045.00 136045.00 -1.00

3 113402.00 345440.50 -232038.50 184041.75 -2.00

4 92574.00 322236.66 -229662.66 199248.70 -3.00

5 348896.00 299270.41 49625.59 161842.94 -3.39

6 797564.00 304232.94 493331.06 228140.55 -0.24 0.01

7 383274.00 353566.06 29707.94 195068.45 -0.13 0.01

8 329871.00 356536.84 -26665.84 171010.95 -0.30 0.01

9 215120.00 353870.28 -138750.28 166978.36 -1.14 0.03

10 468308.00 339995.25 128312.75 162682.19 -0.38 0.01

11 478305.00 352826.53 125478.47 158961.81 0.40 0.01

12 290523.00 365374.34 -74851.34 151315.41 -0.08 0.01 13 192761.00 357889.22 -165128.22 152466.48 -1.16 0.02

14 297030.00 341376.41 -44346.41 144149.55 -1.53 0.02

15 257956.00 336941.78 -78985.78 139494.98 -2.15 0.03

16 171242.00 329043.22 -157801.22 140715.41 -3.25 0.04

17 188476.00 313263.09 -124787.09 139719.88 -4.17 0.06

18 483861.00 300784.38 183076.63 142270.27 -2.81 0.04 19 463833.00 319092.03 144740.97 142407.53 -1.79 0.02

20 134577.00 333566.13 -198989.13 145385.50 -3.12 0.04

21 174744.00 313667.22 -138923.22 145062.39 -4.09 0.05

22 585351.00 299774.91 285576.09 151753.52 -2.02 0.02

23 331242.00 328332.50 2909.50 144987.88 -2.10 0.02

24 285527.00 328623.44 -43096.44 140557.81 -2.47 0.02 25 324313.81

26 324313.81

27 324313.81

28 324313.81

29 324313.81 30 324313.81

31 324313.81

32 324313.81

33 324313.81

34 324313.81

35 324313.81 36 324313.81

MAD 140557.81

Trk.Signal -2.47

R-square 0.02

c=1 Alpha=0

Beta=0

Gamma=0.1

F(0)=359045

T(0)=0

S(1)=1.00

Forecast Result for PDIP24.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data SEST Error Signal

1 291235.00 2 35221.00 291235.00 -256014.00 256014.00 -1.00

3 16208.00 188829.41 -172621.41 214317.70 -2.00

4 130657.00 119780.84 10876.16 146503.86 -2.85

5 183081.00 124131.30 58949.70 124615.31 -2.88

6 121907.00 147711.19 -25804.19 104853.09 -3.67

7 103877.00 137389.52 -33512.52 92962.99 -4.50

8 51508.00 123984.51 -72476.51 90036.35 -5.45

9 374313.00 94993.91 279319.09 113696.69 -1.86 0.35

10 206753.00 206721.55 31.45 101067.22 -2.09 0.35

11 417066.00 206734.13 210331.88 111993.67 -0.01 0.19

12 312184.00 290866.88 21317.13 103750.35 0.20 0.24 13 29682.00 299393.72 -269711.72 117580.47 -2.12 0.31

14 230839.00 191509.03 39329.97 111561.20 -1.88 0.30

15 77917.00 207241.02 -129324.02 112829.98 -3.01 0.31

16 306910.00 155511.41 151398.59 115401.22 -1.63 0.27

17 226298.00 216070.84 10227.16 108827.84 -1.63 0.27

18 452420.00 220161.70 232258.30 116088.45 0.47 0.20 19 616283.00 313065.03 303217.97 126484.53 2.83 0.18

20 290228.00 434352.22 -144124.22 127412.94 1.68 0.27

21 175257.00 376702.53 -201445.53 131114.56 0.09 0.32

22 148012.00 296124.31 -148112.31 131923.97 -1.03 0.33

23 315957.00 236879.39 79077.61 129521.87 -0.44 0.33

24 201400.00 268510.44 -67110.44 126808.33 -0.98 0.33 25 241666.27

26 241666.27

27 241666.27

28 241666.27

29 241666.27 30 241666.27

31 241666.27

32 241666.27

33 241666.27

34 241666.27

35 241666.27 36 241666.27

MAD 126808.33

Trk.Signal -0.98

R-square 0.33

Alpha=0.4 Beta=0

F(0)=291235

T(0)=0

Forecast Result for PDIP24.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data DEST Error Signal

1 291235.00 2 35221.00 291235.00 -256014.00 256014.00 -1.00

3 16208.00 240032.20 -223824.20 239919.09 -2.00

4 130657.00 192707.22 -62050.22 180629.45 -3.00

5 183081.00 175498.77 7582.23 137367.66 -3.89

6 121907.00 171596.34 -49689.34 119832.00 -4.87

7 103877.00 156315.42 -52438.42 108599.74 -5.86

8 51508.00 139987.78 -88479.78 105725.46 -6.86

9 374313.00 115927.51 258385.50 124807.97 -3.74 0.54

10 206753.00 160355.48 46397.52 116095.70 -3.62 0.44

11 417066.00 164969.72 252096.28 129695.75 -1.30 0.15

12 312184.00 211187.67 100996.33 127086.72 -0.53 0.13 13 29682.00 229706.61 -200024.61 133164.88 -2.01 0.15

14 230839.00 189031.30 41807.70 126137.41 -1.79 0.14

15 77917.00 194722.20 -116805.20 125470.82 -2.73 0.16

16 306910.00 169108.63 137801.38 126292.86 -1.62 0.12

17 226298.00 193248.31 33049.69 120465.16 -1.42 0.12

18 452420.00 197815.67 254604.33 128355.69 0.65 0.09 19 616283.00 247024.45 369258.56 141739.19 3.19 0.09

20 290228.00 321710.09 -31482.09 135936.17 3.10 0.11

21 175257.00 319940.25 -144683.25 136373.53 2.03 0.13

22 148012.00 295215.31 -147203.31 136889.22 0.94 0.14

23 315957.00 268539.56 47417.44 132822.33 1.33 0.14

24 201400.00 279315.88 -77915.88 130435.09 0.76 0.15 25 265499.72

26 266487.59

27 267475.47

28 268463.34

29 269451.22 30 270439.09

31 271426.97

32 272414.84

33 273402.72

34 274390.59

35 275378.47 36 276366.34

MAD 130435.09

Trk.Signal 0.76

R-square 0.15

Alpha=0.1 F(0)=291235

F'(0)=291235

Forecast Result for PDIP24.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data 2-MAT 3-MAT Error Signal

1 291235.00 2 35221.00

3 16208.00 -220793.00

4 130657.00 -2805.00 -160805.66 291462.66 291462.66 1.00

5 183081.00 245106.00 156131.33 26949.67 159206.16 2.00

6 121907.00 235505.00 276855.00 -154948.00 157786.77 1.04

7 103877.00 60733.00 136464.98 -32587.98 126487.08 1.03

8 51508.00 85847.00 57084.31 -5576.31 102304.92 1.22

9 374313.00 -861.00 22031.66 352281.34 143967.67 3.32

10 206753.00 697118.00 447002.00 -240249.00 157722.14 1.50

11 417066.00 39193.00 366103.00 50963.00 144377.25 2.00

12 312184.00 627379.00 375463.66 -63279.66 135366.41 1.66 13 29682.00 207302.00 417432.03 -387750.03 160604.77 -1.01

14 230839.00 -252820.00 -134406.64 365245.63 179208.48 1.13

15 77917.00 431996.00 109556.70 -31639.70 166911.08 1.02

16 306910.00 -75005.00 161047.73 145862.27 165291.94 1.92

17 226298.00 535903.00 281293.09 -54995.09 157413.59 1.66

18 452420.00 145686.00 352089.47 100330.53 153608.05 2.36 19 616283.00 678542.00 474052.88 142230.13 152896.94 3.30

20 290228.00 780146.00 821652.25 -531424.25 175163.25 -0.15

21 175257.00 -35827.00 290785.25 -115528.25 171850.19 -0.83

22 148012.00 60286.00 -80436.41 228448.41 174829.05 0.49

23 315957.00 120767.00 62283.23 253673.77 178771.28 1.90

24 201400.00 483902.00 353775.50 -152375.50 177514.34 1.05 25 86843.00 275177.81

26 -27714.00 301871.88

27 -142271.00 328565.94

28 -256828.00 355260.00

29 -371385.00 381954.06 30 -485942.00 408648.13

31 -600499.00 435342.19

32 -715056.00 462036.25

33 -829613.00 488730.31

34 -944170.00 515424.38

35 -1058727.00 542118.44 36 -1173284.00 568812.50

MAD 251112.14 177514.34

Trk.Signal 0.56 1.05

R-square

m=2 m=3

Forecast Result for PDIP24.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data LR Error Signal

1 291235.00 128588.57 162646.44 162646.44 1.00 2 35221.00 136664.97 -101443.97 132045.20 0.46 0.06

3 16208.00 144741.38 -128533.38 130874.59 -0.51 0.03

4 130657.00 152817.78 -22160.78 103696.14 -0.86 0.05

5 183081.00 160894.17 22186.83 87394.27 -0.77 0.03

6 121907.00 168970.58 -47063.58 80672.49 -1.42 0.07

7 103877.00 177046.98 -73169.98 79600.70 -2.36 0.13

8 51508.00 185123.39 -133615.39 86352.54 -3.72 0.28

9 374313.00 193199.80 181113.20 96881.50 -1.45 0.05

10 206753.00 201276.19 5476.81 87741.03 -1.53 0.06

11 417066.00 209352.59 207713.41 98647.62 0.74 0.04

12 312184.00 217429.00 94755.00 98323.23 1.71 0.06 13 29682.00 225505.41 -195823.41 105823.24 -0.26 0.05

14 230839.00 233581.80 -2742.80 98460.35 -0.31 0.07

15 77917.00 241658.20 -163741.20 102812.41 -1.89 0.09

16 306910.00 249734.61 57175.39 99960.09 -1.37 0.09

17 226298.00 257811.02 -31513.02 95933.80 -1.76 0.11

18 452420.00 265887.41 186532.59 100967.06 0.18 0.10 19 616283.00 273963.81 342319.19 113669.80 3.17 0.09

20 290228.00 282040.22 8187.78 108395.70 3.40 0.10

21 175257.00 290116.63 -114859.63 108703.50 2.33 0.11

22 148012.00 298193.03 -150181.03 110588.84 0.93 0.12

23 315957.00 306269.44 9687.56 106201.83 1.06 0.13

24 201400.00 314345.84 -112945.84 106482.82 0.00 0.15 25 322422.25

26 330498.63

27 338575.03

28 346651.44

29 354727.84 30 362804.25

31 370880.66

32 378957.06

33 387033.47

34 395109.88

35 403186.25 36 411262.66

MAD 106482.82

Trk.Signal 0.00

R-square 0.15

Y-intercept=120512.2 Slope=8076.403

Forecast Result for PDIP24.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data HWA Error Signal

1 291235.00 2 35221.00 291235.00 -256014.00 256014.00 -1.00

3 16208.00 196509.81 -180301.81 218157.91 -2.00

4 130657.00 129798.13 858.87 145724.89 -2.99

5 183081.00 130115.91 52965.09 122534.95 -3.12

6 121907.00 149713.00 -27806.00 103589.16 -3.96

7 103877.00 139424.78 -35547.78 92248.93 -4.83

8 51508.00 126272.10 -74764.10 89751.10 -5.80

9 374313.00 98609.39 275703.63 112995.16 -2.17 0.36

10 206753.00 200619.75 6133.25 101121.62 -2.36 0.35

11 417066.00 202889.03 214176.97 112427.15 -0.22 0.17

12 312184.00 282134.50 30049.50 104938.27 0.05 0.22 13 29682.00 293252.81 -263570.81 118157.65 -2.18 0.28

14 230839.00 195731.59 35107.41 111769.16 -2.00 0.27

15 77917.00 208721.34 -130804.34 113128.82 -3.13 0.29

16 306910.00 160323.73 146586.27 115359.32 -1.80 0.24

17 226298.00 214560.66 11737.34 108882.95 -1.80 0.24

18 452420.00 218903.48 233516.52 116214.33 0.33 0.18 19 616283.00 305304.59 310978.41 127034.55 2.75 0.16

20 290228.00 420366.63 -130138.63 127197.92 1.72 0.24

21 175257.00 372215.31 -196958.31 130685.94 0.17 0.29

22 148012.00 299340.72 -151328.72 131668.92 -0.98 0.30

23 315957.00 243349.09 72607.91 128984.34 -0.44 0.29

24 201400.00 270214.00 -68814.00 126368.24 -0.99 0.30 25 244752.83

26 244752.83

27 244752.83

28 244752.83

29 244752.83 30 244752.83

31 244752.83

32 244752.83

33 244752.83

34 244752.83

35 244752.83 36 244752.83

MAD 126368.24

Trk.Signal -0.99

R-square 0.30

c=1 Alpha=0.1

Beta=0

Gamma=0.3

F(0)=291235

T(0)=0

S(1)=0

Forecast Result for PDIP24.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data HWM Error Signal

1 291235.00 2 35221.00 291235.00 -256014.00 256014.00 -1.00

3 16208.00 196509.81 -180301.81 218157.91 -2.00

4 130657.00 129798.14 858.86 145724.89 -2.99

5 183081.00 130115.92 52965.08 122534.94 -3.12

6 121907.00 149713.00 -27806.00 103589.15 -3.96

7 103877.00 139424.78 -35547.78 92248.91 -4.83

8 51508.00 126272.10 -74764.10 89751.09 -5.80

9 374313.00 98609.38 275703.63 112995.16 -2.17 0.36

10 206753.00 200619.73 6133.27 101121.61 -2.36 0.35

11 417066.00 202889.05 214176.95 112427.15 -0.22 0.17

12 312184.00 282134.53 30049.47 104938.27 0.05 0.22 13 29682.00 293252.84 -263570.84 118157.66 -2.18 0.28

14 230839.00 195731.64 35107.36 111769.17 -2.00 0.27

15 77917.00 208721.36 -130804.36 113128.83 -3.13 0.29

16 306910.00 160323.73 146586.27 115359.33 -1.80 0.24

17 226298.00 214560.66 11737.34 108882.95 -1.80 0.24

18 452420.00 218903.47 233516.53 116214.34 0.33 0.18 19 616283.00 305304.63 310978.38 127034.55 2.75 0.16

20 290228.00 420366.63 -130138.63 127197.92 1.72 0.24

21 175257.00 372215.34 -196958.34 130685.94 0.17 0.29

22 148012.00 299340.75 -151328.75 131668.92 -0.98 0.30

23 315957.00 243349.09 72607.91 128984.34 -0.44 0.29

24 201400.00 270214.03 -68814.03 126368.24 -0.99 0.30 25 244752.81

26 244752.81

27 244752.81

28 244752.81

29 244752.81 30 244752.81

31 244752.81

32 244752.81

33 244752.81

34 244752.81

35 244752.81 36 244752.81

MAD 126368.24

Trk.Signal -0.99

R-square 0.30

c=1 Alpha=0.3

Beta=0

Gamma=0.1

F(0)=291235

T(0)=0

S(1)=1.00

Forecast Result for soic8.15.

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data SEST Error Signal

1 2173718.00 2 2481829.00 2173718.00 308111.00 308111.00 1.00

3 2044361.00 2210691.25 -166330.25 237220.63 0.60 0.11

4 2889974.00 2196893.75 693080.25 389173.84 2.15 0.65

5 1539836.00 2282899.25 -743063.25 477646.19 0.19 0.01

6 710214.00 2210429.00 -1500215.00 682159.94 -2.06 0.14

7 1274212.00 2032239.25 -758027.25 694804.50 -3.12 0.25

8 1464188.00 1913107.63 -448919.63 659678.06 -3.96 0.32

9 2190122.00 1815908.38 374213.63 623995.00 -3.59 0.23

10 2126408.00 1808506.75 317901.25 589984.56 -3.26 0.19

11 1741724.00 1801831.88 -60107.88 536996.88 -3.69 0.20

12 1438448.00 1756154.00 -317706.00 517061.38 -4.45 0.24 13 1380521.00 1678362.13 -297841.13 498793.00 -5.21 0.28

14 1554164.00 1596599.88 -42435.88 463688.63 -5.70 0.30

15 1387266.00 1539529.63 -152263.63 441443.97 -6.33 0.34

16 1650778.00 1468431.25 182346.75 424170.81 -6.16 0.36

17 1581663.00 1434440.75 147222.25 406861.50 -6.06 0.39

18 1534545.00 1399882.38 134662.63 390849.78 -5.96 0.42 19 1378514.00 1366761.25 11752.75 369788.84 -6.27 0.46

20 1119402.00 1321584.13 -202182.13 360967.41 -6.98 0.49

21 1785473.00 1250969.88 534503.13 369644.19 -5.37 0.51

22 1266287.00 1264714.13 1572.88 352117.00 -5.63 0.55

23 1196475.00 1225197.00 -28722.00 337417.22 -5.96 0.58

24 849520.00 1182075.75 -332555.75 337205.88 -6.95 0.58 25 1101920.25

26 1055020.25

27 1008120.19

28 961220.13

29 914320.06 30 867420.00

31 820519.94

32 773619.88

33 726719.81

34 679819.75

35 632919.69 36 586019.63

MAD 337205.88

Trk.Signal -6.95

R-square 0.58

Alpha=0.1 Beta=0.2

F(0)=2.17E6

T(0)=0

Forecast Result for soic8.15.

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data DEST Error Signal

1 2173718.00 2 2481829.00 2173718.00 308111.00 308111.00 1.00

3 2044361.00 2235340.00 -190979.00 249545.00 0.47 0.09

4 2889974.00 2200225.50 689748.50 396279.50 2.04 0.61

5 1539836.00 2339346.75 -799510.75 497087.31 0.01 0.02

6 710214.00 2187513.50 -1477299.50 693129.75 -2.12 0.16

7 1274212.00 1892127.25 -617915.25 680594.00 -3.07 0.26

8 1464188.00 1753845.13 -289657.13 624745.88 -3.81 0.32

9 2190122.00 1675035.25 515086.75 611038.50 -3.05 0.25

10 2126408.00 1754277.63 372130.38 584493.19 -2.55 0.21

11 1741724.00 1810079.50 -68355.50 532879.38 -2.92 0.22

12 1438448.00 1781505.63 -343057.63 515622.88 -3.69 0.25 13 1380521.00 1697307.75 -316786.75 499053.16 -4.45 0.28

14 1554164.00 1614933.63 -60769.63 465339.03 -4.90 0.30

15 1387266.00 1580594.88 -193328.88 445909.75 -5.55 0.33

16 1650778.00 1519136.63 131641.38 424958.53 -5.51 0.34

17 1581663.00 1520739.13 60923.88 402206.38 -5.67 0.36

18 1534545.00 1509514.50 25030.50 380019.56 -5.93 0.38 19 1378514.00 1491720.38 -113206.38 365196.63 -6.48 0.40

20 1119402.00 1446529.25 -327127.25 363192.94 -7.42 0.42

21 1785473.00 1357421.88 428051.13 366435.84 -6.19 0.43

22 1266287.00 1416079.00 -149792.00 356119.47 -6.79 0.45

23 1196475.00 1363447.88 -166972.88 347521.91 -7.44 0.46

24 849520.00 1305882.88 -456362.88 352254.13 -8.63 0.47 25 1188770.00

26 1158366.13

27 1127962.25

28 1097558.38

29 1067154.50 30 1036750.56

31 1006346.63

32 975942.69

33 945538.75

34 915134.81

35 884730.88 36 854326.94

MAD 352254.13

Trk.Signal -8.63

R-square 0.47

Alpha=0.1 F(0)=2.17E6

F'(0)=2.17E6

Forecast Result for soic8.15.

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data 2-MAT 3-MAT Error Signal

1 2173718.00 2 2481829.00

3 2044361.00 2789940.00

4 2889974.00 1606893.00 2103945.75 786028.25 786028.25 1.00

5 1539836.00 3735587.00 2880199.50 -1340363.50 1063195.88 -0.52 0.50

6 710214.00 189698.00 1653531.50 -943317.50 1023236.44 -1.46 0.63

7 1274212.00 -119408.00 -466419.13 1740631.13 1202585.13 0.20

8 1464188.00 1838210.00 909129.38 555058.63 1073079.75 0.74

9 2190122.00 1654164.00 1903511.38 286610.63 942001.56 1.15

10 2126408.00 2916056.00 2558750.00 -432342.00 869193.06 0.75

11 1741724.00 2062694.00 2589125.50 -847401.50 866469.13 -0.23

12 1438448.00 1357040.00 1571019.50 -132571.50 784924.94 -0.42 13 1380521.00 1135172.00 1080899.50 299621.50 736394.63 -0.04

14 1554164.00 1322594.00 1159027.50 395136.50 705371.13 0.52

15 1387266.00 1727807.00 1573426.50 -186160.50 662103.56 0.27

16 1650778.00 1220368.00 1447394.88 203383.13 626817.38 0.61

17 1581663.00 1914290.00 1627349.38 -45686.38 585308.06 0.58

18 1534545.00 1512548.00 1734298.75 -199753.75 559604.38 0.25 19 1378514.00 1487427.00 1472761.63 -94247.63 530519.63 0.08

20 1119402.00 1222483.00 1295090.88 -175688.88 509647.25 -0.26

21 1785473.00 860290.00 929009.63 856463.38 528914.75 1.37

22 1266287.00 2451544.00 1834754.00 -568467.00 530996.50 0.30

23 1196475.00 747101.00 1537270.88 -340795.88 521486.44 -0.35

24 849520.00 1126663.00 827078.75 22441.25 497722.38 -0.32 25 502565.00 687325.25

26 155610.00 478940.88

27 -191345.00 270556.50

28 -538300.00 62172.13

29 -885255.00 -146212.25 30 -1232210.00 -354596.63

31 -1579165.00 -562981.00

32 -1926120.00 -771365.38

33 -2273075.00 -979749.75

34 -2620030.00 -1188134.13

35 -2966985.00 -1396518.50 36 -3313940.00 -1604902.88

MAD 585999.94 497722.38

Trk.Signal -1.12 -0.32

R-square

m=2 m=3

Forecast Result for soic8.15.

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data LR Error Signal

1 2173718.00 2078976.88 94741.13 94741.13 1.00 2 2481829.00 2038629.75 443199.25 268970.19 2.00

3 2044361.00 1998282.63 46078.38 194672.92 3.00

4 2889974.00 1957935.50 932038.50 379014.31 4.00

5 1539836.00 1917588.38 -377752.38 378761.94 3.01 0.27

6 710214.00 1877241.25 -1167027.25 510139.50 -0.06 0.01

7 1274212.00 1836894.13 -562682.13 517645.56 -1.14 0.03

8 1464188.00 1796547.00 -332359.00 494484.75 -1.87 0.05

9 2190122.00 1756200.00 433922.00 487755.56 -1.00 0.03

10 2126408.00 1715852.88 410555.13 480035.50 -0.17 0.04

11 1741724.00 1675505.75 66218.25 442415.72 -0.03 0.05

12 1438448.00 1635158.63 -196710.63 421940.28 -0.50 0.06 13 1380521.00 1594811.50 -214290.50 405967.22 -1.04 0.08

14 1554164.00 1554464.38 -300.38 376991.03 -1.13 0.09

15 1387266.00 1514117.25 -126851.25 360315.06 -1.53 0.11

16 1650778.00 1473770.13 177007.88 348858.38 -1.07 0.13

17 1581663.00 1433423.00 148240.00 337057.28 -0.67 0.15

18 1534545.00 1393075.88 141469.13 326191.28 -0.26 0.18 19 1378514.00 1352728.75 25785.25 310380.41 -0.19 0.21

20 1119402.00 1312381.63 -192979.63 304510.38 -0.83 0.23

21 1785473.00 1272034.50 513438.50 314459.34 0.83 0.26

22 1266287.00 1231687.38 34599.63 301738.44 0.98 0.29

23 1196475.00 1191340.25 5134.75 288842.59 1.04 0.32

24 849520.00 1150993.25 -301473.25 289368.88 0.00 0.32 25 1110646.13

26 1070299.00

27 1029951.81

28 989604.75

29 949257.63 30 908910.50

31 868563.38

32 828216.25

33 787869.13

34 747522.00

35 707174.88 36 666827.75

MAD 289368.88

Trk.Signal 0.00

R-square 0.32

Y-intercept=2.12E6 Slope=-40347.12

Forecast Result for soic8.15.

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data HWA Error Signal

1 2173718.00 2 2481829.00 2173718.00 308111.00 308111.00 1.00

3 2044361.00 2210691.25 -166330.25 237220.63 0.60 0.11

4 2889974.00 2196893.75 693080.25 389173.84 2.15 0.65

5 1539836.00 2282899.25 -743063.25 477646.19 0.19 0.01

6 710214.00 2210429.00 -1500215.00 682159.94 -2.06 0.14

7 1274212.00 2032239.25 -758027.25 694804.50 -3.12 0.25

8 1464188.00 1913107.63 -448919.63 659678.06 -3.96 0.32

9 2190122.00 1815908.38 374213.63 623995.00 -3.59 0.23

10 2126408.00 1808506.75 317901.25 589984.56 -3.26 0.19

11 1741724.00 1801831.88 -60107.88 536996.88 -3.69 0.20

12 1438448.00 1756154.00 -317706.00 517061.38 -4.45 0.24 13 1380521.00 1678362.13 -297841.13 498793.00 -5.21 0.28

14 1554164.00 1596599.88 -42435.88 463688.63 -5.70 0.30

15 1387266.00 1539529.63 -152263.63 441443.97 -6.33 0.34

16 1650778.00 1468431.25 182346.75 424170.81 -6.16 0.36

17 1581663.00 1434440.75 147222.25 406861.50 -6.06 0.39

18 1534545.00 1399882.38 134662.63 390849.78 -5.96 0.42 19 1378514.00 1366761.25 11752.75 369788.84 -6.27 0.46

20 1119402.00 1321584.13 -202182.13 360967.41 -6.98 0.49

21 1785473.00 1250969.88 534503.13 369644.19 -5.37 0.51

22 1266287.00 1264714.13 1572.88 352117.00 -5.63 0.55

23 1196475.00 1225197.00 -28722.00 337417.22 -5.96 0.58

24 849520.00 1182075.75 -332555.75 337205.88 -6.95 0.58 25 1101920.25

26 1055020.13

27 1008120.06

28 961220.00

29 914320.00 30 867419.94

31 820519.88

32 773619.81

33 726719.75

34 679819.69

35 632919.63 36 586019.63

MAD 337205.88

Trk.Signal -6.95

R-square 0.58

c=1 Alpha=0.1

Beta=0.2

Gamma=0

F(0)=2.17E6

T(0)=0

S(1)=0

Forecast Result for soic8.15.

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data HWM Error Signal

1 2173718.00 2 2481829.00 2173718.00 308111.00 308111.00 1.00

3 2044361.00 2210691.25 -166330.25 237220.63 0.60 0.11

4 2889974.00 2196893.75 693080.25 389173.84 2.15 0.65

5 1539836.00 2282899.25 -743063.25 477646.19 0.19 0.01

6 710214.00 2210429.00 -1500215.00 682159.94 -2.06 0.14

7 1274212.00 2032239.25 -758027.25 694804.50 -3.12 0.25

8 1464188.00 1913107.63 -448919.63 659678.06 -3.96 0.32

9 2190122.00 1815908.38 374213.63 623995.00 -3.59 0.23

10 2126408.00 1808506.75 317901.25 589984.56 -3.26 0.19

11 1741724.00 1801831.88 -60107.88 536996.88 -3.69 0.20

12 1438448.00 1756154.00 -317706.00 517061.38 -4.45 0.24 13 1380521.00 1678362.13 -297841.13 498793.00 -5.21 0.28

14 1554164.00 1596599.88 -42435.88 463688.63 -5.70 0.30

15 1387266.00 1539529.63 -152263.63 441443.97 -6.33 0.34

16 1650778.00 1468431.25 182346.75 424170.81 -6.16 0.36

17 1581663.00 1434440.75 147222.25 406861.50 -6.06 0.39

18 1534545.00 1399882.38 134662.63 390849.78 -5.96 0.42 19 1378514.00 1366761.25 11752.75 369788.84 -6.27 0.46

20 1119402.00 1321584.13 -202182.13 360967.41 -6.98 0.49

21 1785473.00 1250969.88 534503.13 369644.19 -5.37 0.51

22 1266287.00 1264714.13 1572.88 352117.00 -5.63 0.55

23 1196475.00 1225197.00 -28722.00 337417.22 -5.96 0.58

24 849520.00 1182075.75 -332555.75 337205.88 -6.95 0.58 25 1101920.25

26 1055020.13

27 1008120.06

28 961220.00

29 914320.00 30 867419.94

31 820519.88

32 773619.81

33 726719.75

34 679819.69

35 632919.63 36 586019.63

MAD 337205.88

Trk.Signal -6.95

R-square 0.58

c=1 Alpha=0.1

Beta=0.2

Gamma=0

F(0)=2.17E6

T(0)=0

S(1)=1.00

Forecast Result for SOIC20.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data SEST Error Signal

1 24456.00 2 37332.00 24456.00 12876.00 12876.00 1.00

3 30522.00 28318.80 2203.20 7539.60 2.00

4 23709.00 28979.76 -5270.76 6783.32 1.45 0.47

5 93924.00 27398.53 66525.47 21718.86 3.51 0.47

6 21039.00 47356.17 -26317.17 22638.52 2.21 0.23

7 33398.00 39461.02 -6063.02 19875.94 2.21 0.19

8 40019.00 37642.11 2376.89 17376.07 2.67 0.20

9 21475.00 38355.18 -16880.18 17314.09 1.70 0.14

10 5242.00 33291.13 -28049.13 18506.87 0.08 0.09

11 6228.00 24876.39 -18648.39 18521.02 -0.93 0.10

12 29603.00 19281.87 10321.13 17775.58 -0.39 0.12 13 42768.00 22378.21 20389.79 17993.43 0.75 0.13

14 110737.00 28495.15 82241.85 22935.61 4.17 0.13

15 65591.00 53167.70 12423.30 22184.73 4.87 0.17

16 216951.00 56894.69 160056.31 31376.17 8.55 0.16

17 106997.00 104911.59 2085.41 29545.50 9.15 0.25

18 119278.00 105537.21 13740.79 28615.81 9.92 0.32 19 102465.00 109659.45 -7194.45 27425.73 10.09 0.39

20 95162.00 107501.11 -12339.11 26631.70 9.93 0.44

21 89186.00 103799.38 -14613.38 26030.79 9.60 0.48

22 100950.00 99415.36 1534.64 24864.30 10.11 0.50

23 184431.00 99875.75 84555.25 27577.53 12.18 0.46

24 156039.00 125242.33 30796.67 27717.49 13.23 0.49 25 134481.33

26 134481.33

27 134481.33

28 134481.33

29 134481.33 30 134481.33

31 134481.33

32 134481.33

33 134481.33

34 134481.33

35 134481.33 36 134481.33

MAD 27717.49

Trk.Signal 13.23

R-square 0.49

Alpha=0.3 Beta=0

F(0)=24456

T(0)=0

Forecast Result for SOIC20.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data DEST Error Signal

1 24456.00 2 37332.00 24456.00 12876.00 12876.00 1.00

3 30522.00 27031.20 3490.80 8183.40 2.00

4 23709.00 27858.12 -4149.12 6838.64 1.79 0.60

5 93924.00 27191.96 66732.04 21811.99 3.62 0.50

6 21039.00 40660.55 -19621.55 21373.90 2.78 0.24

7 33398.00 37525.73 -4127.73 18499.54 2.98 0.20

8 40019.00 37293.47 2725.53 16246.11 3.57 0.20

9 21475.00 38390.57 -16915.57 16329.79 2.51 0.13

10 5242.00 35586.72 -30344.72 17887.01 0.60 0.06

11 6228.00 29927.88 -23699.88 18468.29 -0.71 0.06

12 29603.00 25294.56 4308.44 17181.03 -0.51 0.07 13 42768.00 26025.90 16742.10 17144.46 0.47 0.07

14 110737.00 29287.06 81449.94 22091.03 4.05 0.09

15 65591.00 45657.22 19933.78 21936.94 4.99 0.12

16 216951.00 50538.63 166412.38 31568.64 8.74 0.14

17 106997.00 84915.11 22081.89 30975.71 9.62 0.20

18 119278.00 92089.61 27188.39 30752.93 10.57 0.26 19 102465.00 100506.23 1958.77 29153.25 11.22 0.31

20 95162.00 104148.82 -8986.82 28091.86 11.32 0.36

21 89186.00 105621.87 -16435.87 27509.06 10.96 0.41

22 100950.00 105515.25 -4565.25 26416.50 11.24 0.45

23 184431.00 107618.39 76812.61 28707.23 13.02 0.44

24 156039.00 125951.45 30087.55 28767.25 14.04 0.47 25 135707.61

26 139747.14

27 143786.67

28 147826.20

29 151865.73 30 155905.27

31 159944.80

32 163984.33

33 168023.86

34 172063.39

35 176102.92 36 180142.45

MAD 28767.25

Trk.Signal 14.04

R-square 0.47

Alpha=0.1 F(0)=24456

F'(0)=24456

Forecast Result for SOIC20.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data 2-MAT 3-MAT Error Signal

1 24456.00 2 37332.00

3 30522.00 50208.00

4 23709.00 23712.00 36836.00 -13127.00 13127.00 -1.00

5 93924.00 16896.00 16898.00 77026.00 45076.50 1.42 0.91

6 21039.00 164139.00 112787.00 -91748.00 60633.67 -0.46

7 33398.00 -51846.00 43554.00 -10156.00 48014.25 -0.79

8 40019.00 45757.00 -11072.33 51091.33 48629.66 0.27

9 21475.00 46640.00 50465.33 -28990.33 45356.44 -0.35

10 5242.00 2931.00 19707.66 -14465.66 40943.47 -0.74

11 6228.00 -10991.00 -12531.67 18759.67 38170.50 -0.30

12 29603.00 7214.00 -4265.34 33868.34 37692.48 0.59 13 42768.00 52978.00 38051.99 4716.01 34394.84 0.78

14 110737.00 55933.00 62739.66 47997.34 35631.43 2.10

15 65591.00 178706.00 142170.00 -76579.00 39043.72 -0.04

16 216951.00 20445.00 95854.99 121096.01 45355.44 2.63 0.70

17 106997.00 368311.00 237307.00 -130310.00 51423.62 -0.21

18 119278.00 -2957.00 171252.33 -51974.33 51460.33 -1.22 19 102465.00 131559.00 50068.98 52396.02 51518.81 -0.20

20 95162.00 85652.00 105047.98 -9885.98 49069.82 -0.41

21 89186.00 87859.00 81518.98 7667.02 46769.67 -0.27

22 100950.00 83210.00 82325.32 18624.68 45288.35 0.13

23 184431.00 112714.00 100887.31 83543.69 47201.12 1.90

24 156039.00 267912.00 220100.64 -64061.64 48004.00 0.53 25 127647.00 202228.95

26 99255.00 229773.44

27 70863.00 257317.91

28 42471.00 284862.38

29 14079.00 312406.84 30 -14313.00 339951.31

31 -42705.00 367495.78

32 -71097.00 395040.25

33 -99489.00 422584.72

34 -127881.00 450129.19

35 -156273.00 477673.66 36 -184665.00 505218.13

MAD 63514.91 48004.00

Trk.Signal -0.65 0.53

R-square

m=2 m=3

Forecast Result for SOIC20.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data LR Error Signal

1 24456.00 7288.80 17167.20 17167.20 1.00 2 37332.00 13022.75 24309.25 20738.22 2.00

3 30522.00 18756.71 11765.29 17747.25 3.00

4 23709.00 24490.66 -781.66 13505.85 3.88

5 93924.00 30224.61 63699.39 23544.56 4.93 0.87

6 21039.00 35958.56 -14919.56 22107.06 4.58 0.59

7 33398.00 41692.51 -8294.51 20133.84 4.62 0.56

8 40019.00 47426.46 -7407.46 18543.04 4.61 0.59

9 21475.00 53160.42 -31685.42 20003.30 2.69 0.56

10 5242.00 58894.37 -53652.37 23368.21 0.01 0.54

11 6228.00 64628.32 -58400.32 26552.95 -2.19 0.69

12 29603.00 70362.27 -40759.27 27736.81 -3.57 0.98 13 42768.00 76096.23 -33328.23 28166.92 -4.70

14 110737.00 81830.18 28906.82 28219.77 -3.66 0.71

15 65591.00 87564.13 -21973.13 27803.32 -4.51 0.83

16 216951.00 93298.09 123652.91 33793.93 -0.05 0.27

17 106997.00 99032.03 7964.97 32274.57 0.19 0.30

18 119278.00 104765.98 14512.02 31287.76 0.66 0.32 19 102465.00 110499.94 -8034.94 30063.93 0.42 0.37

20 95162.00 116233.89 -21071.89 29614.33 -0.28 0.42

21 89186.00 121967.84 -32781.84 29765.16 -1.38 0.48

22 100950.00 127701.80 -26751.80 29628.19 -2.29 0.54

23 184431.00 133435.75 50995.25 30557.19 -0.55 0.49

24 156039.00 139169.70 16869.30 29986.87 0.00 0.50 25 144903.66

26 150637.61

27 156371.56

28 162105.52

29 167839.45 30 173573.41

31 179307.36

32 185041.31

33 190775.27

34 196509.22

35 202243.17 36 207977.13

MAD 29986.87

Trk.Signal 0.00

R-square 0.50

Y-intercept=1554.848 Slope=5733.952

Forecast Result for SOIC20.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data HWA Error Signal

1 24456.00 2 37332.00 24456.00 12876.00 12876.00 1.00

3 30522.00 28318.80 2203.20 7539.60 2.00

4 23709.00 28979.76 -5270.76 6783.32 1.45 0.47

5 93924.00 27398.53 66525.47 21718.86 3.51 0.47

6 21039.00 47356.17 -26317.17 22638.52 2.21 0.23

7 33398.00 39461.02 -6063.02 19875.94 2.21 0.19

8 40019.00 37642.12 2376.88 17376.07 2.67 0.20

9 21475.00 38355.18 -16880.18 17314.09 1.70 0.14

10 5242.00 33291.13 -28049.13 18506.87 0.08 0.09

11 6228.00 24876.39 -18648.39 18521.02 -0.93 0.10

12 29603.00 19281.87 10321.13 17775.58 -0.39 0.12 13 42768.00 22378.21 20389.79 17993.43 0.75 0.13

14 110737.00 28495.15 82241.85 22935.61 4.17 0.13

15 65591.00 53167.70 12423.30 22184.73 4.87 0.17

16 216951.00 56894.69 160056.31 31376.17 8.55 0.16

17 106997.00 104911.59 2085.41 29545.50 9.15 0.25

18 119278.00 105537.21 13740.79 28615.81 9.92 0.32 19 102465.00 109659.45 -7194.45 27425.73 10.09 0.39

20 95162.00 107501.11 -12339.11 26631.70 9.93 0.44

21 89186.00 103799.38 -14613.38 26030.79 9.60 0.48

22 100950.00 99415.36 1534.64 24864.30 10.11 0.50

23 184431.00 99875.75 84555.25 27577.53 12.18 0.46

24 156039.00 125242.33 30796.67 27717.49 13.23 0.49 25 134481.33

26 134481.33

27 134481.33

28 134481.33

29 134481.33 30 134481.33

31 134481.33

32 134481.33

33 134481.33

34 134481.33

35 134481.33 36 134481.33

MAD 27717.49

Trk.Signal 13.23

R-square 0.49

c=1 Alpha=0

Beta=0

Gamma=0.3

F(0)=24456

T(0)=0

S(1)=0

Forecast Result for SOIC20.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data HWM Error Signal

1 24456.00 2 37332.00 24456.00 12876.00 12876.00 1.00

3 30522.00 28318.80 2203.20 7539.60 2.00

4 23709.00 28979.76 -5270.76 6783.32 1.45 0.47

5 93924.00 27398.53 66525.47 21718.86 3.51 0.47

6 21039.00 47356.17 -26317.17 22638.52 2.21 0.23

7 33398.00 39461.02 -6063.02 19875.94 2.21 0.19

8 40019.00 37642.11 2376.89 17376.07 2.67 0.20

9 21475.00 38355.18 -16880.18 17314.09 1.70 0.14

10 5242.00 33291.13 -28049.13 18506.87 0.08 0.09

11 6228.00 24876.39 -18648.39 18521.02 -0.93 0.10

12 29603.00 19281.87 10321.13 17775.58 -0.39 0.12 13 42768.00 22378.21 20389.79 17993.43 0.75 0.13

14 110737.00 28495.15 82241.85 22935.61 4.17 0.13

15 65591.00 53167.70 12423.30 22184.73 4.87 0.17

16 216951.00 56894.69 160056.31 31376.17 8.55 0.16

17 106997.00 104911.59 2085.41 29545.50 9.15 0.25

18 119278.00 105537.21 13740.79 28615.81 9.92 0.32 19 102465.00 109659.45 -7194.45 27425.73 10.09 0.39

20 95162.00 107501.11 -12339.11 26631.70 9.93 0.44

21 89186.00 103799.38 -14613.38 26030.79 9.60 0.48

22 100950.00 99415.36 1534.64 24864.30 10.11 0.50

23 184431.00 99875.75 84555.25 27577.53 12.18 0.46

24 156039.00 125242.33 30796.67 27717.49 13.23 0.49 25 134481.33

26 134481.33

27 134481.33

28 134481.33

29 134481.33 30 134481.33

31 134481.33

32 134481.33

33 134481.33

34 134481.33

35 134481.33 36 134481.33

MAD 27717.49

Trk.Signal 13.23

R-square 0.49

c=1 Alpha=0.3

Beta=0

Gamma=0

F(0)=24456

T(0)=0

S(1)=1.00

Forecast Result for SOIC24.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data SEST Error Signal

1 57971.00 2 27961.00 57971.00 -30010.00 30010.00 -1.00

3 7451.00 27961.00 -20510.00 25260.00 -2.00

4 30241.00 7451.00 22790.00 24436.67 -1.13

5 69588.00 30241.00 39347.00 28164.25 0.41 0.66

6 92940.00 69588.01 23351.99 27201.80 1.29 0.57

7 92155.00 92940.00 -785.00 22799.00 1.50 0.78

8 110214.00 92155.00 18059.00 22121.86 2.36 0.75

9 83366.00 110214.00 -26848.00 22712.63 1.12 0.97

10 65004.00 83366.00 -18362.00 22229.22 0.32

11 49351.00 65004.00 -15653.00 21571.60 -0.40 0.98

12 91107.00 49351.00 41756.00 23406.54 1.42 0.94 13 73877.00 91107.01 -17230.01 22891.83 0.69

14 77331.00 73877.00 3454.00 21396.62 0.90 1.00

15 59205.00 77331.00 -18126.00 21163.00 0.06

16 113566.00 59205.00 54361.00 23376.20 2.38 0.86

17 106102.00 113566.01 -7464.01 22381.69 2.15 0.93

18 104349.00 106102.00 -1753.00 21168.23 2.19 0.96 19 89160.00 104349.00 -15189.00 20836.05 1.50

20 156762.00 89160.00 67602.00 23297.42 4.24 0.74

21 182653.00 156762.02 25890.98 23427.10 5.32 0.72

22 191829.00 182653.00 9176.00 22748.48 5.88 0.78

23 190996.00 191829.00 -833.00 21752.32 6.12 0.85

24 101272.00 190996.00 -89724.00 24707.61 1.75 25 101271.99

26 101271.99

27 101271.99

28 101271.99

29 101271.99 30 101271.99

31 101271.99

32 101271.99

33 101271.99

34 101271.99

35 101271.99 36 101271.99

MAD 24707.61

Trk.Signal 1.75

R-square

Alpha=1 Beta=0

F(0)=57971

T(0)=0

Forecast Result for SOIC24.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data DEST Error Signal

1 57971.00 2 27961.00 57971.00 -30010.00 30010.00 -1.00

3 7451.00 15957.00 -8506.00 19258.00 -2.00

4 30241.00 -10656.30 40897.30 26471.10 0.09

5 69588.00 27727.08 41860.91 30318.56 1.46

6 92940.00 87499.22 5440.78 25343.00 1.96

7 92155.00 116795.01 -24640.01 25225.84 0.99

8 110214.00 106643.68 3570.32 22132.19 1.29

9 83366.00 123913.20 -40547.20 24434.07 -0.49

10 65004.00 81167.63 -16163.63 23515.13 -1.19

11 49351.00 52690.92 -3339.92 21497.61 -1.46

12 91107.00 34247.23 56859.77 24712.35 1.03 13 73877.00 98446.54 -24569.54 24700.45 0.03

14 77331.00 76506.11 824.89 22863.87 0.07

15 59205.00 78078.80 -18873.80 22578.87 -0.76

16 113566.00 52477.52 61088.48 25146.18 1.75

17 106102.00 129575.27 -23473.27 25041.62 0.82

18 104349.00 118219.91 -13870.91 24384.52 0.27 19 89160.00 108805.95 -19645.95 24121.26 -0.54

20 156762.00 84510.20 72251.80 26654.45 2.22

21 182653.00 179244.81 3408.19 25492.14 2.45

22 191829.00 213001.75 -21172.75 25286.45 1.64

23 190996.00 214015.38 -23019.38 25183.40 0.73

24 101272.00 202069.09 -100797.09 28470.96 -2.90 25 69954.49

26 29565.25

27 -10824.00

28 -51213.25

29 -91602.49 30 -131991.73

31 -172380.98

32 -212770.23

33 -253159.48

34 -333937.97

36 -374327.22

MAD 28470.96

Trk.Signal -2.90

R-square

Alpha=0.7

F(0)=57971 F'(0)=57971

Forecast Result for SOIC24.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data 2-MAT 3-MAT Error Signal

1 57971.00 2 27961.00

3 7451.00 -2049.00

4 30241.00 -13059.00 -19392.33 49633.34 49633.34 1.00

5 69588.00 53031.00 24164.33 45423.66 47528.50 2.00

6 92940.00 108935.00 97897.01 -4957.01 33338.00 2.70

7 92155.00 116292.00 126955.34 -34800.34 33703.59 1.64

8 110214.00 91370.00 107461.34 2752.66 27513.40 2.11

9 83366.00 128273.00 115710.36 -32344.36 28318.56 0.91

10 65004.00 56518.00 86456.03 -21452.03 27337.63 0.16

11 49351.00 46642.00 40984.72 8366.28 24966.21 0.51

12 91107.00 33698.00 31892.09 59214.91 28771.62 2.50 13 73877.00 132863.00 94590.45 -20713.45 27965.80 1.83

14 77331.00 56647.00 95971.13 -18640.13 27118.01 1.20

15 59205.00 80785.00 66995.81 -7790.81 25507.41 0.97

16 113566.00 41079.00 55465.85 58100.15 28014.55 2.96

17 106102.00 167927.00 119602.55 -13500.55 26977.83 2.57

18 104349.00 98638.00 139854.92 -35505.92 27546.38 1.23 19 89160.00 102596.00 98788.95 -9628.95 26426.54 0.91

20 156762.00 73971.00 82928.64 73833.36 29215.17 3.35

21 182653.00 224364.00 169170.34 13482.66 28341.14 3.93

22 191829.00 208544.00 236351.72 -44522.72 29192.81 2.29

23 190996.00 201005.00 212148.78 -21152.78 28790.81 1.59

24 101272.00 190163.00 196836.17 -95564.17 31970.49 -1.56 25 11548.00 70809.25

26 -78176.00 25531.05

27 -167900.00 -19747.14

28 -257624.00 -65025.34

29 -347348.00 -110303.53 30 -437072.00 -155581.72

31 -526796.00 -200859.91

32 -616520.00 -246138.09

33 -706244.00 -291416.28

34 -795968.00 -336694.47

35 -885692.00 -381972.66 36 -975416.00 -427250.84

MAD 33485.00 31970.49

Trk.Signal -1.78 -1.56

R-square

m=2 m=3

Forecast Result for SOIC24.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data LR Error Signal

1 57971.00 32092.72 25878.28 25878.28 1.00 2 27961.00 37361.66 -9400.66 17639.46 0.93 0.33

3 7451.00 42630.59 -35179.59 23486.17 -0.80 0.13

4 30241.00 47899.52 -17658.52 22029.26 -1.65 0.36

5 69588.00 53168.46 16419.54 20907.32 -0.95 0.14

6 92940.00 58437.39 34502.61 23173.20 0.63 0.11

7 92155.00 63706.33 28448.67 23926.84 1.80 0.16

8 110214.00 68975.26 41238.74 26090.82 3.23 0.22

9 83366.00 74244.20 9121.80 24205.38 3.86 0.27

10 65004.00 79513.13 -14509.13 23235.75 3.39 0.30

11 49351.00 84782.06 -35431.06 24344.42 1.78 0.32

12 91107.00 90050.99 1056.01 22403.72 1.99 0.38 13 73877.00 95319.93 -21442.93 22329.81 1.03 0.47

14 77331.00 100588.86 -23257.86 22396.10 -0.01 0.57

15 59205.00 105857.80 -46652.80 24013.21 -1.95 0.72

16 113566.00 111126.73 2439.27 22664.84 -1.96 0.73

17 106102.00 116395.66 -10293.66 21937.13 -2.49 0.79

18 104349.00 121664.59 -17315.59 21680.37 -3.32 0.88 19 89160.00 126933.53 -37773.53 22527.38 -4.87

20 156762.00 132202.47 24559.53 22628.99 -3.77 0.84

21 182653.00 137471.39 45181.61 23702.92 -1.69 0.65

22 191829.00 142740.33 49088.67 24856.82 0.36 0.56

23 190996.00 148009.27 42986.73 25645.08 2.03 0.52

24 101272.00 153278.20 -52006.20 26743.46 0.00 0.59 25 158547.13

26 163816.06

27 169085.00

28 174353.94

29 179622.86 30 184891.80

31 190160.73

32 195429.67

33 200698.59

34 205967.53

35 211236.47 36 216505.41

MAD 26743.46

Trk.Signal 0.00

R-square 0.59

Y-intercept=26823.79 Slope=5268.934

Forecast Result for SOIC24.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data HWA Error Signal

1 57971.00 2 27961.00 57971.00 -30010.00 30010.00 -1.00

3 7451.00 27961.00 -20510.00 25260.00 -2.00

4 30241.00 7451.00 22790.00 24436.67 -1.13

5 69588.00 30241.00 39347.00 28164.25 0.41 0.66

6 92940.00 69588.01 23351.99 27201.80 1.29 0.57

7 92155.00 92940.00 -785.00 22799.00 1.50 0.78

8 110214.00 92155.00 18059.00 22121.86 2.36 0.75

9 83366.00 110214.00 -26848.00 22712.63 1.12 0.97

10 65004.00 83366.00 -18362.00 22229.22 0.32

11 49351.00 65004.00 -15653.00 21571.60 -0.40 0.98

12 91107.00 49351.00 41756.00 23406.54 1.42 0.94 13 73877.00 91107.00 -17230.00 22891.83 0.69

14 77331.00 73877.00 3454.00 21396.62 0.90 1.00

15 59205.00 77331.00 -18126.00 21163.00 0.06

16 113566.00 59205.00 54361.00 23376.20 2.38 0.86

17 106102.00 113566.01 -7464.01 22381.69 2.15 0.93

18 104349.00 106102.00 -1753.00 21168.23 2.19 0.96 19 89160.00 104349.00 -15189.00 20836.05 1.50

20 156762.00 89160.00 67602.00 23297.42 4.24 0.74

21 182653.00 156762.00 25891.00 23427.10 5.32 0.72

22 191829.00 182653.00 9176.00 22748.48 5.88 0.78

23 190996.00 191829.00 -833.00 21752.32 6.12 0.85

24 101272.00 190996.00 -89724.00 24707.61 1.75 25 101271.98

26 101271.98

27 101271.98

28 101271.98

29 101271.98 30 101271.98

31 101271.98

32 101271.98

33 101271.98

34 101271.98

35 101271.98 36 101271.98

MAD 24707.61

Trk.Signal 1.75

R-square

c=1 Alpha=0

Beta=0

Gamma=1

F(0)=57971

T(0)=0

S(1)=0

Forecast Result for SOIC24.3

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data HWM Error Signal

1 57971.00 2 27961.00 57971.00 -30010.00 30010.00 -1.00

3 7451.00 27961.00 -20510.00 25260.00 -2.00

4 30241.00 7451.00 22790.00 24436.67 -1.13

5 69588.00 30241.00 39347.00 28164.25 0.41 0.66

6 92940.00 69588.01 23351.99 27201.80 1.29 0.57

7 92155.00 92940.00 -785.00 22799.00 1.50 0.78

8 110214.00 92155.00 18059.00 22121.86 2.36 0.75

9 83366.00 110214.01 -26848.01 22712.63 1.12 0.97

10 65004.00 83366.00 -18362.00 22229.22 0.32

11 49351.00 65004.00 -15653.00 21571.60 -0.40 0.98

12 91107.00 49351.00 41756.00 23406.54 1.42 0.94 13 73877.00 91107.01 -17230.01 22891.83 0.69

14 77331.00 73877.00 3454.00 21396.62 0.90 1.00

15 59205.00 77331.00 -18126.00 21163.00 0.06

16 113566.00 59205.00 54361.00 23376.20 2.38 0.86

17 106102.00 113566.01 -7464.01 22381.69 2.15 0.93

18 104349.00 106102.00 -1753.00 21168.23 2.19 0.96 19 89160.00 104349.00 -15189.00 20836.05 1.50

20 156762.00 89160.00 67602.00 23297.42 4.24 0.74

21 182653.00 156762.02 25890.98 23427.10 5.32 0.72

22 191829.00 182653.02 9175.98 22748.48 5.88 0.78

23 190996.00 191829.00 -833.00 21752.32 6.12 0.85

24 101272.00 190996.00 -89724.00 24707.61 1.75 25 101271.99

26 101271.99

27 101271.99

28 101271.99

29 101271.99 30 101271.99

31 101271.99

32 101271.99

33 101271.99

34 101271.99

35 101271.99 36 101271.99

MAD 24707.61

Trk.Signal 1.75

R-square

c=1 Alpha=0

Beta=0

Gamma=1

F(0)=57971

T(0)=0

S(1)=1.00

Forecast Result for SOIC32.4

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data SEST Error Signal

1 730943.00 2 197200.00 730943.00 -533743.00 533743.00 -1.00

3 130171.00 357322.88 -227151.88 380447.44 -2.00

4 55528.00 198316.55 -142788.55 301227.81 -3.00

5 207278.00 98364.55 108913.45 253149.22 -3.14

6 342679.00 174603.97 168075.03 236134.38 -2.65

7 430987.00 292256.50 138730.50 219900.39 -2.22

8 310831.00 389367.84 -78536.84 199705.61 -2.84

9 573257.00 334392.06 238864.94 204600.53 -1.60

10 166869.00 501597.53 -334728.53 219059.19 -3.02

11 653528.00 267287.53 386240.47 235777.33 -1.17 0.88

12 646708.00 537655.88 109052.13 224256.86 -0.75 0.75 13 510972.00 613992.38 -103020.38 214153.83 -1.26 0.84

14 359825.00 541878.13 -182053.13 211684.53 -2.14 0.92

15 815385.00 414440.94 400944.06 225203.08 -0.23 0.62

16 713667.00 695101.81 18565.19 211427.22 -0.15 0.66

17 437273.00 708097.44 -270824.44 215139.55 -1.41 0.77

18 545383.00 518520.31 26862.69 204064.44 -1.36 0.76 19 505197.00 537324.19 -32127.19 194512.38 -1.59 0.77

20 462589.00 514835.16 -52246.16 187024.69 -1.93 0.77

21 454040.00 478262.84 -24222.84 178884.59 -2.15 0.78

22 388901.00 461306.84 -72405.84 173814.17 -2.63 0.78

23 461859.00 410622.75 51236.25 168242.44 -2.42 0.78

24 498932.00 446488.13 52443.88 163207.72 -2.17 0.77 25 483198.84

26 483198.84

27 483198.84

28 483198.84

29 483198.84 30 483198.84

31 483198.84

32 483198.84

33 483198.84

34 483198.84

35 483198.84 36 483198.84

MAD 163207.72

Trk.Signal -2.17

R-square 0.77

Alpha=0.7 Beta=0

F(0)=730943

T(0)=0

Forecast Result for SOIC32.4

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data DEST Error Signal

1 730943.00 2 197200.00 730943.00 -533743.00 533743.00 -1.00

3 130171.00 303948.53 -173777.53 353760.25 -2.00

4 55528.00 79527.64 -23999.64 243840.05 -3.00

5 207278.00 -52875.36 260153.36 247918.38 -1.90

6 342679.00 38204.08 304474.91 259229.67 -0.64

7 430987.00 206365.33 224621.67 253461.67 0.23

8 310831.00 359360.00 -48529.00 224185.58 0.04

9 573257.00 329773.63 243483.38 226597.80 1.12

10 166869.00 526032.44 -359163.44 241327.31 -0.44

11 653528.00 279131.19 374396.81 254634.25 1.05

12 646708.00 561612.00 85096.00 239221.69 1.48 13 510972.00 672555.63 -161583.63 232751.83 0.82

14 359825.00 599770.94 -239945.94 233305.23 -0.21

15 815385.00 438442.97 376942.03 243565.00 1.35

16 713667.00 732234.00 -18567.00 228565.14 1.36

17 437273.00 769928.56 -332655.56 235070.78 -0.10

18 545383.00 553381.63 -7998.63 221713.59 -0.14 19 505197.00 543335.31 -38138.31 211514.95 -0.33

20 462589.00 507897.47 -45308.47 202767.25 -0.56

21 454040.00 460621.38 -6581.38 192957.95 -0.63

22 388901.00 437077.56 -48176.56 186063.59 -0.91

23 461859.00 379204.59 82654.41 181363.19 -0.48

24 498932.00 418288.19 80643.81 176984.08 -0.03 25 468988.03

26 468075.81

27 467163.59

28 466251.38

29 465339.16 30 464426.94

31 463514.72

32 462602.50

33 461690.28

34 460778.06

35 459865.84 36 458953.63

MAD 176984.08

Trk.Signal -0.03

R-square

Alpha=0.4 F(0)=730943

F'(0)=730943

Forecast Result for SOIC32.4

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data 2-MAT 3-MAT Error Signal

1 730943.00 2 197200.00

3 130171.00 -336543.00

4 55528.00 63142.00 -248000.66 303528.66 303528.66 1.00

5 207278.00 -19115.00 -14039.02 221317.03 262422.84 2.00

6 342679.00 359028.00 208099.28 134579.72 219808.45 3.00

7 430987.00 478080.00 488979.25 -57992.25 179354.41 3.35

8 310831.00 519295.00 550690.25 -239859.25 191455.38 1.89

9 573257.00 190675.00 329650.84 243606.16 200147.17 3.02

10 166869.00 835683.00 580628.19 -413759.19 230663.17 0.83

11 653528.00 -239519.00 206356.81 447171.19 257726.69 2.48

12 646708.00 1140187.00 544822.13 101885.88 240411.06 3.08 13 510972.00 639888.00 968873.75 -457901.75 262160.13 1.08

14 359825.00 375236.00 461179.78 -101354.78 247541.45 0.73

15 815385.00 208678.00 218951.78 596433.25 276615.78 2.81

16 713667.00 1270945.00 866473.50 -152806.50 267091.97 2.34

17 437273.00 611949.00 983467.38 -546194.38 287027.84 0.27

18 545383.00 160879.00 277329.34 268053.66 285762.91 1.21 19 505197.00 653493.00 397156.59 108040.41 274655.25 1.66

20 462589.00 465011.00 563874.63 -101285.63 264457.03 1.34

21 454040.00 419981.00 421595.25 32444.75 251567.44 1.53

22 388901.00 445491.00 422784.63 -33883.63 240110.39 1.47

23 461859.00 323762.00 361488.28 100370.72 233123.41 1.94

24 498932.00 534817.00 442751.97 56180.03 224697.53 2.26 25 536005.00 559928.00

26 573078.00 614943.38

27 610151.00 669958.75

28 647224.00 724974.13

29 684297.00 779989.50 30 721370.00 835004.88

31 758443.00 890020.25

32 795516.00 945035.63

33 832589.00 1000051.00

34 869662.00 1055066.38

35 906735.00 1110081.75 36 943808.00 1165097.13

MAD 258790.45 224697.53

Trk.Signal 2.21 2.26

R-square

m=2 m=3

Forecast Result for SOIC32.4

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data LR Error Signal

1 730943.00 324369.25 406573.75 406573.75 1.00 2 197200.00 334569.03 -137369.03 271971.38 0.99 0.25

3 130171.00 344768.81 -214597.81 252846.86 0.22 0.01

4 55528.00 354968.59 -299440.59 264495.28 -0.93 0.05

5 207278.00 365168.38 -157890.38 243174.30 -1.66 0.12

6 342679.00 375368.16 -32689.16 208093.44 -2.09 0.11

7 430987.00 385567.94 45419.06 184854.25 -2.11 0.08

8 310831.00 395767.75 -84936.75 172364.56 -2.76 0.10

9 573257.00 405967.53 167289.47 171800.67 -1.79 0.04

10 166869.00 416167.31 -249298.31 179550.42 -3.10 0.10

11 653528.00 426367.09 227160.91 183878.64 -1.79 0.04

12 646708.00 436566.88 210141.13 186067.19 -0.64 0.03 13 510972.00 446766.66 64205.34 176693.19 -0.31 0.03

14 359825.00 456966.44 -97141.44 171010.92 -0.89 0.04

15 815385.00 467166.22 348218.78 182824.78 1.07 0.04

16 713667.00 477366.00 236301.00 186167.05 2.32 0.05

17 437273.00 487565.78 -50292.78 178174.44 2.14 0.06

18 545383.00 497765.56 47617.44 170921.28 2.51 0.07 19 505197.00 507965.34 -2768.34 162071.13 2.63 0.08

20 462589.00 518165.13 -55576.13 156746.38 2.37 0.09

21 454040.00 528364.94 -74324.94 152821.55 1.94 0.09

22 388901.00 538564.69 -149663.69 152678.02 0.96 0.10

23 461859.00 548764.50 -86905.50 149818.34 0.40 0.12

24 498932.00 558964.25 -60032.25 146077.25 0.00 0.13 25 569164.06

26 579363.81

27 589563.63

28 599763.38

29 609963.19 30 620162.94

31 630362.75

32 640562.50

33 650762.31

34 660962.13

35 671161.88 36 681361.69

MAD 146077.25

Trk.Signal 0.00

R-square 0.13

Y-intercept=314169.5 Slope=10199.78

Forecast Result for SOIC32.4

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data HWA Error Signal

1 730943.00 2 197200.00 730943.00 -533743.00 533743.00 -1.00

3 130171.00 330635.75 -200464.75 367103.88 -2.00

4 55528.00 180287.19 -124759.19 286322.31 -3.00

5 207278.00 86717.80 120560.20 244881.78 -3.02

6 342679.00 177137.94 165541.06 229013.66 -2.50

7 430987.00 301293.75 129693.25 212460.25 -2.09

8 310831.00 398563.69 -87732.69 194642.03 -2.73

9 573257.00 332764.19 240492.81 200373.38 -1.45

10 166869.00 513133.81 -346264.81 216583.53 -2.94

11 653528.00 253435.20 400092.81 234934.45 -1.01 0.92

12 646708.00 553504.81 93203.19 222049.80 -0.65 0.80 13 510972.00 623407.19 -112435.19 212915.25 -1.20 0.90

14 359825.00 539080.81 -179255.81 210326.06 -2.07 0.97

15 815385.00 404638.94 410746.06 224641.77 -0.11 0.67

16 713667.00 712698.50 968.50 209730.22 -0.11 0.71

17 437273.00 713424.88 -276151.88 213881.56 -1.40 0.83

18 545383.00 506310.97 39072.03 203598.64 -1.28 0.81 19 505197.00 535615.00 -30418.00 193977.50 -1.50 0.82

20 462589.00 512801.50 -50212.50 186410.92 -1.83 0.83

21 454040.00 475142.13 -21102.13 178145.47 -2.03 0.83

22 388901.00 459315.53 -70414.53 173015.42 -2.50 0.83

23 461859.00 406504.63 55354.38 167667.20 -2.25 0.83

24 498932.00 448020.41 50911.59 162590.88 -2.01 0.82 25 486204.13

26 486204.13

27 486204.13

28 486204.13

29 486204.13 30 486204.13

31 486204.13

32 486204.13

33 486204.13

34 486204.13

35 486204.13 36 486204.13

MAD 162590.88

Trk.Signal -2.01

R-square 0.82

c=1 Alpha=0.5

Beta=0

Gamma=0.5

F(0)=730943

T(0)=0

S(1)=0

Forecast Result for SOIC32.4

Period Actual Forecast by Forecast MAD Tracking R-square

Data HWM Error Signal

1 730943.00 2 197200.00 730943.00 -533743.00 533743.00 -1.00

3 130171.00 330635.75 -200464.75 367103.88 -2.00

4 55528.00 180287.19 -124759.19 286322.31 -3.00

5 207278.00 86717.80 120560.20 244881.78 -3.02

6 342679.00 177137.95 165541.05 229013.63 -2.50

7 430987.00 301293.75 129693.25 212460.23 -2.09

8 310831.00 398563.66 -87732.66 194642.00 -2.73

9 573257.00 332764.16 240492.84 200373.36 -1.45

10 166869.00 513133.78 -346264.78 216583.52 -2.94

11 653528.00 253435.19 400092.81 234934.45 -1.01 0.92

12 646708.00 553504.81 93203.19 222049.80 -0.65 0.80 13 510972.00 623407.19 -112435.19 212915.25 -1.20 0.90

14 359825.00 539080.81 -179255.81 210326.06 -2.07 0.97

15 815385.00 404638.94 410746.06 224641.77 -0.11 0.67

16 713667.00 712698.50 968.50 209730.22 -0.11 0.71

17 437273.00 713424.88 -276151.88 213881.56 -1.40 0.83

18 545383.00 506310.97 39072.03 203598.64 -1.28 0.81 19 505197.00 535615.00 -30418.00 193977.50 -1.50 0.82

20 462589.00 512801.47 -50212.47 186410.92 -1.83 0.83

21 454040.00 475142.09 -21102.09 178145.47 -2.03 0.83

22 388901.00 459315.53 -70414.53 173015.42 -2.50 0.83

23 461859.00 406504.66 55354.34 167667.19 -2.25 0.83

24 498932.00 448020.38 50911.63 162590.88 -2.01 0.82 25 486204.13

26 486204.13

27 486204.13

28 486204.13

29 486204.13 30 486204.13

31 486204.13

32 486204.13

33 486204.13

34 486204.13

35 486204.13 36 486204.13

MAD 162590.88

Trk.Signal -2.01

R-square 0.82

c=1 Alpha=0.5

Beta=0

Gamma=0.5

F(0)=730943

T(0)=0

S(1)=1.00