AGENDA PEMBANGUNANPASCA COVID-19

Faisal Basri7 Mei 2020

COVID-19: Bencana dahsyat

• Memicu perubahan dalam berbagai aspek kehidupan

• Menjelma sebagai pandemi global, menyebar ke 202 negara dan teritori di setiap benua kecuali Antartika.

• Menjangkiti hampir 3,8 juta orang dan yang meninggal dunia 263 ribu lebih, sejauh ini.

• Menghempaskan perekonomian dunia, terparah setelah Depresi Besar 1929-1939 dengan puncaknya 1933. Perkiraan ADB: global costmencapai US$4,1 triliun atau hampir 5 persen PDB global. Sangat boleh jadi lebih besar lagi.

• “New normal”

Faisal Basri 2

U.S. labor market tumbles closer to depression level30.3 million Americas filed for unemployment since March 15, 2020

Source: U. S. Department of Labor.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

01

/07

/67

01

/20

/68

02

/01

/69

02

/14

/70

02

/27

/71

03

/11

/72

03

/24

/73

04

/06

/74

04

/19

/75

05

/01

/76

05

/14

/77

05

/27

/78

06

/09

/79

06

/21

/80

07

/04

/81

07

/17

/82

07

/30

/83

08

/11

/84

08

/24

/85

09

/06

/86

09

/19

/87

10

/01

/88

10

/14

/89

10

/27

/90

11

/09

/91

11

/21

/92

12

/04

/93

12

/17

/94

12

/30

/95

01

/11

/97

01

/24

/98

02

/06

/99

02

/19

/00

03

/03

/01

03

/16

/02

03

/29

/03

04

/10

/04

04

/23

/05

05

/06

/06

05

/19

/07

05

/31

/08

06

/13

/09

06

/26

/10

07

/09

/11

07

/21

/12

08

/03

/13

08

/16

/14

08

/29

/15

09

/10

/16

09

/23

/17

10

/06

/18

10

/19

/19

Mill

ion

s

(Millions of weekly unemployment insurance claims, seasonally adjusted)

0.3

3.3

6.9

6.6

5.2

4.4

3.8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Mill

ion

s

In 2020

Faisal Basri 3

U.S. Economy shrank at fastest pace since 20084

.9

1.2

0.4

3.2

0.2

3.1

2.7

1.4

-2.7

2.0

-1.9

-8.2

-5.4

-0.5

1.3

3.9

1.7

3.9

2.7

2.5

-1.0

2.9

-0.1

4.7

3.2

1.7

0.5

0.5

3.6

0.5

3.2

3.2

-1.1

5.5

5.0

2.3

3.2

3.0

1.3

0.1

2.0

1.9 2

.2

2.0 2

.3

2.2

3.2 3

.5

2.5

3.5

2.9

1.1

3.1

2.0 2.1

2.1

-4.8

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Q1

-20

06

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-20

07

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-20

08

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-20

09

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-20

10

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-20

11

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-20

12

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-20

13

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-20

14

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-20

15

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-20

16

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-20

17

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-20

18

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-20

19

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-20

20

Quarterly GDP growth, percent

Source: U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Faisal Basri 4

Euro Area economic growth is the hardest hit

1.20.6

1.3

0.3

2

-7.5-7 -7.2

-9.1

-8

Euro Area Germany France Italy Spain

Percent

2019 2020*

Europe inches toward a $2.2 trillion plan that may never happen

* Projection.Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, various issues. Faisal Basri 5

Eurozone economy suffers record contraction, steeper than U.S. during the same period

-12

0

-14.4

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

Eurozone GDP, quarterly change at an annualized rate, percent

Note: Adjusted for inflation, the seasons and changes in the calendar.Source: Eurostat. Faisal Basri 6

Pertumbuhan ekonomi China anjlok tahun ini, triwulan I-2020 alamikontraksi 6,8 persen

* Projection.Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, various issues.

8.5

8.3

10.0

14.2

9.7 9.4

10.6

9.6

7.9 7.87.3

6.9 6.7 6.8 6.66.1

1.20

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* 2020*

Percent

Q1-2020 (year-on-year) = -6.8%

Faisal Basri 7

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

Indonesia: quarterly GDP growth

2.97

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

Q1

-09

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-10

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-11

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-12

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-13

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-14

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-15

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-16

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-17

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-18

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-19

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

-20

Quarterly GDP growth, percent

Faisal Basri 8

Konsensus nasional baru

• Sumber daya alam untuk menyejahterakan rakyat, termasuk untuk generasi mendatang (keadilan antargenerasi).

• Hubungan negara-buruh/pekerja-pengusaha: jejaring pengaman sosial.

• Universal basic income.

• Hubungan pusat-daerah.

• Ketahanan nasional: sosial, kesehatan, energi, pangan, keuangan.

• Merawat demokrasi.

• Kembali ke jati diri bangsa: negara maritim.

Faisal Basri 9

Merawat demokrasi

Sumber: Diadaptasi dari Daron Acemoglu dan James A. Robinson, The Narrow Corridor: States, Societies, and the Fate of Liberty, London: Penguin Press.

Poland +

Corporation

Society: non-elites (similar but more general than civil society)

Power of society: norms against political hierarchy and elites and bottom-up mobilization; institutionalization is key.

State: state institutions and elites that control them.

Power of the state: both the ability of the elites and the institutions they control to dominate society and capabilities and capacity of state institutions.

Liberty: the state of being free within society from oppressive restrictions imposed by authority on one's way of life, behavior, or political views.

Faisal Basri 10

The Third Pillar: Raghuram Rajan

Community

State Market

❑ State is the political governance structure of a country. In this context, it will refer to the central government. In addition to the executive branch, the state will also include the legislature and the judiciary.

❑ Markets will include all private economic structures facilitating production and exchange in the economy.

❑ Community is a social group of any size whose members reside in a specific locality, share government, and often have a common cultural and historical heritage.

Faisal Basri 11

Tenaga kesehatan kita minim sekali

5.44.6

4.54.24.2

4.14.1

3.53.2

2.82.6

8.24.0

2.42.2

2.11.8

1.51.1

0.90.80.80.8

0.4

Sweden (2016)Norway (2017)

Denmark (2016)Germany (2016)

Switzerland (2016)Italy (2017)

Spain (2016)Netherlands (2016)

France (2016)United Kingdom (2017)

United States (2016)Cuba (2017)

Russian Federation (2016)Korea, Rep. (2017)

Mexico (2016)Brazil (2018)China (2015)

Malaysia (2015)Iran (2015)

South Africa (2017)Thailand (2017)Vietnam (2016)

India (2017)Indonesia (2017)

Physicians per 1,000 people

17.3

13.2

11.5

10.3

11.1

9.7

8.6

8.3

5.9

5.5

9.7

7.8

7.0

4.1

3.5

3.0

2.9

2.6

2.3

2.1

2.1

1.9

1.4

Switzerland (2016)

Germany (2016)

Sweden (2016)

Denmark (2016)

Netherlands (2016)

France (2016)

United States (2015)

United Kingdom (2017)

Italy (2017)

Spain (2016)

Brazil (2018)

Cuba (2017)

Korea, Rep. (2017)

Malaysia (2015)

South Africa (2017)

Thailand (2017)

Mexico (2016)

Turkey (2015)

China (2015)

India (2017)

Indonesia (2017)

Iran (2015)

Vietnam (2016)

Nurses and midwives per 1,000 people

12Faisal Basri

Jumlah tempat tidur rumah sakit pun terbatas

13.48.3

6.54.7

4.03.9

3.43.0

2.92.8

2.62.5

11.58.2

5.24.2

2.82.7

2.62.1

1.91.51.5

1.20.7

Japan (2012)Germany (2013)

France (2013)Switzerland (2013)

Netherlands (2016)Norway (2013)

Italy (2012)Spain (2013)

United States (2013)United Kingdom (2013)

Sweden (2013)Denmark (2015)

Korea, Rep. (2015)Russian Federation (2013)

Cuba (2014)China (2012)

South Africa (2005)Turkey (2013)

Vietnam (2014)Thailand (2010)Malaysia (2015)

Mexico (2015)Iran (2014)

Indonesia (2015)India (2011)

Hospital beds per 1,000 people

13Faisal Basri

Pengeluaran untuk kesehatan sangat rendah

12.1911.77

11.1410.9310.93

10.5010.35

8.978.94

8.118.10

7.557.34

6.085.66

5.475.27

5.094.98

4.474.39

4.313.80

3.713.66

3.122.362.34

CubaBrazil

GermanyJapan

SwedenNorway

DenmarkSpain

ItalySouth Africa

IranArgentina

Korea, Rep.Cambodia

VietnamMexico

Russian FederationMyanmar

ChinaSingapore

PhilippinesTurkey

MalaysiaThailand

IndiaIndonesia

Lao PDRBrunei Darussalam

Current health expenditure , percent of GDP, 2016 or the latest

Source: World Bank: Faisal Basri 14

Titik pijak 2013

Sasaran 2019

Realisasi2019

Sumatera 23.8 24.6 21.3

Jawa 58.0 55.1 59.0

Bali & Nusa Tenggara 2.5 2.6 3.1

Kalimantan 8.7 9.6 8.1

Sulawesi 4.8 5.2 6.3

Maluku dan Papua 2.2 2.9 2.2

Sumber: RPJM 2015-2019

dan BPS.

Sasaran pemerataan pembangunan wilayahberdasarkan RPJM 2015-2019

Faisal Basri 15

Jumlah dokter di tujuan mudik utamadi bawah rerata nasional

10

.8

6.3

6.1

5.3

4.7

4.6

4.3

4.1

3.7

3.6

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.1

1.9

1.8

1.3

3.02

Dokter per 10.000 penduduk, 2019

Reratanasional

Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik.Faisal Basri 16

Ketersediaan perawatpaling sedikit di Jawa Barat

25

.5

23

.0

21

.4

21

.4

20

.9

20

.7

20

.0

20

.0

19

.7

19

.5

19

.0

18

.5

18

.3

17

.6

16

.8

16

.5

16

.4

16

.3

15

.4

15

.1

14

.8

14

.6

14

.0

13

.9

13

.0

12

.9

12

.1

12

.0

11

.2

11

.1

10

.9

9.8

7.4

7.2

12.89

Perawat per 10.000 penduduk, 2019

Reratanasional

Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik.Faisal Basri 17

Tempat tidur rumah sakit pun di bawah rerata nasional

22

.4

21

.5

18

.3

17

.2

16

.3

16

.2

15

.8

15

.1

15

.0

14

.7

14

.6

14

.2

13

.3

13

.3

12

.8

12

.4

12

.2

12

.3

12

.0

11

.9

11

.4

11

.4

10

.5

10

.5

10

.3

10

.3

9.9

8.8

8.8

8.3

8.2 8.3

7.9

6.8

12.7

Tempat tidur rumah sakit per 10.000 penduduk, 2017

Sumber: Pusat Data dan Informasi Kementerian Kesehatan dan BPS.

Reratanasional

Faisal Basri 18

Social mobility index, 2019

85.283.683.683.5

82.778.8

76.776.1

74.674.4

71.470.4

64.762.0

61.557.8

55.452.6

52.151.7

51.349.3

43.842.7

41.434.5

1. Denmark2. Norway3. Finland

4. Sweden5. Iceland

11. Germany12. France15. Japan

20. Singapore21. United Kingdom

25. Korea, Rep.27. United States

39. Russian Federation43. Malaysia

45. China50. Vietnam55. Thailand

58. Mexico60. Brazil

61. Philippines64. Turkey

67. Indonesia72. Lao PDR

76. India77. South Africa82. Côte d'Ivoire

Source: World Economic Forum. Faisal Basri 19

Social mobility and inequality

IDN

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90

Social mobility index

Ineq

ua

lity

Faisal Basri 20

1,685

808

281

1,785

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

19

651

966

19

671

968

19

691

970

19

711

972

19

731

974

19

751

976

19

771

978

19

791

980

19

811

982

19

831

984

19

851

986

19

871

988

19

891

990

19

911

992

19

931

994

19

951

996

19

971

998

19

992

000

20

012

002

20

032

004

20

052

006

20

072

008

20

092

010

20

112

012

20

132

014

20

152

016

20

172

018

Thousand barrels daily

Production Consumption

Oil production: A mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in liquid phase in natural underground reservoirs and remains liquid at atmospheric pressure after passing through surface separating facilities.

Oil consumption: Inland demand plus international aviation and marine bunkers and refinery fuel and loss. Consumption of biogasoline (such as ethanol), biodiesel and derivatives of coal and natural gas are also included.

-977(Importa-

ble)

1,404(Exporta-

ble)

Source:. BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 68th edition, 2019.

Skyrocketing fuel consumption, the production slump, making imports increasingly undermined the economy

Faisal Basri 21

Projection of energy trade account

Source: .Wood MackenzieFaisal Basri 22

Trade deficit of manufacturing products

-27.6

-130

-110

-90

-70

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017

Exports Imports Surplus/deficit

US$ b

illions

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia. Faisal Basri 23

0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.4

-1.0-0.0 -0.3

-1.4

-4.2

-2.6 -2.9 -2.5

-0.6

-2.1 -1.9

-3.3

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

Trade account of food (SITC 0)USD billions

Exports Imports Surplus/deficit

Trade deficit of food (and live animals) since 2007

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia

Faisal Basri 24

Impor gula

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mill

ion

to

ns

US$

bill

ion

s

Value Volume - RHS

Sumber: BPS. Faisal Basri 25

Impor daging sejenis lembu

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Tho

usa

nd

to

ns

US$

mill

ion

s)

Value Volume - RHS

Sumber: BPS. Faisal Basri 26

Impor daging dan binatang hidup

-11

6

-10

3

-12

6

-15

6

-20

3

-21

6

-39

2

-60

7

-71

6

-85

3

-66

0

-45

3

-59

4

-1,1

30

-81

0

-1,1

93

-1,1

36

-1,3

31

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

HS 02 & HS 01* (US$ millions)

HS 02 HS 01 (excluding HS 0101 & 0106) TOTALSumber: Internasional Trade Center..

HS 02 - Meat and edible meat offalHS 01 - Live animals• HS 0101-Live horses, asses, mules

and hinnies• HS 0106-Live animals (excluding

horses, asses, mules, hinnies, bovine animals, swine, sheep, goats, . . .

Faisal Basri 27

Impor beras

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mill

ion

to

ns

US$

bill

ion

s

Volume - RHS Value

Sumber: BPS.

Faisal Basri 28

Impor biji gandum dan meslin

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mill

ion

to

ns

US$

bill

ion

s

Value Volume - RHS

Sumber: BPS. Faisal Basri 29

Impor kedelai

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.9

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mill

ion

to

n

US$

mill

ion

s

Value Volume - RHS

Sumber: BPS. Faisal Basri 30

Impor buah-buahan

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Tho

usa

nd

to

ns

US$

bill

ion

s

Value Volume - RHS

Sumber: BPS.

Volume impor dari China tahun 2019: 60,2 persen (terbesar)

Faisal Basri 31

Impor sayuran

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Tho

usa

nd

to

ns

US$

mill

ion

s

Value Volume - RHS

Sumber: BPS.

Volume impor dari China tahun 2019: 67,5 persen (terbesar)

Faisal Basri 32

Impor garam

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

145

155

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mill

ion

to

ns

US$

mill

ion

s

Value Volume - RHS

Sumber: BPS.

Volume impor dari China tahun 2019: 0,02 persen

Faisal Basri 33

Impor tembakau

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Tho

usa

nd

to

ns

US$

mill

ion

s

Value Volume - RHS

Sumber: BPS.

Volume impor dari China tahun 2019: 41,5 persen (terbesar)

Faisal Basri 34