studi kelayakan proyek kereta api cepat jakarta-bandung tahap i

JICA Study Team

Feasibility Study for Jakarta-BandungHigh Speed Railway Project

(as a part of Jakarta-Surabaya) Phase I

Final Coordination Meeting

10th of April, 2015

JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY

Japan International Consultants for Transportation Co., Ltd.

Universitas Gadjah Mada

COOPERATIVE

FIRMSPT Matra Rekayasa InternasionalENGINEERING & MANAGEMENT CONSULTANT

JICA Study Team

Table of Contents

Project Schedule and Progress P 3

Worldwide High Speed Railway Systems P 4

Route Alignment P 5

Demand Forecast P 7

Preliminary Environment and Social Considerations P 9

Cost Estimation (Project Cost) P 10

Business Scheme and Implementation Plan P 12

Economic and Financial Analysis P 23

Overall Study Summary P24

Phase I Study Conclusions P25

Recommendations & Way Forward P 26

Implementation Schedule P 30

Possible Financing Resources in Future P 28

Project Effects P 11

JICA Study Team

Project Schedule and Progress2014 2015

Feasibility Study Phase I Feasibility Study Phase II Engineering Service

Construction

Oct. 17th

MoM

Phase I

Preliminary analysis on JKT-BDG-SBY

Feasibility of JKT-BDG Demand forecast Comparison of

technical spec. Route alignment Location of station Preliminary

environment and social consideration

Implementing structure and scheme

Economic and financial analysis

E/S

Detailed design PPP design Tender documents

preparation Tender assistance

Phase II

Review of route alignment

Detailed technical and engineering studies

Operation and maintenance

Detailed project implementation plan

Detailed cost estimation

EIA report/ LARAP Detailed economic

and financial analysis

3

Follow Up

Inauguration

Follow up and preparation are essential to go

to Phase II.

JICA Study Team

Worldwide High Speed Railway Systems

4

* Earthquake frequency is counted over magnitude 7.0 in each country since year 2000.

* Annual rainfall in Indonesia; 1,480mm(Jakarta), 1,656mm(Bandung)

Country Japan France Spain China South Korea

First Inauguration year 1964 1981 1992 2007 2004

Veh

icle

per

form

ance

Class E5 TGV-POS S112 CHR3C KTX-Sancheon

Maximum speed(in commercial operation)

320km/h 320km/h 300km/h 300km/h 300km/h

Output/Passenger capacity 13.1kW 26.0KW 22.0kW 15.8kW 24.2kW

Weight/ Passenger Capacity 0.62t 1.18t 0.89t 0.76t 1.11t

Top

ogr

aph

yan

d

wea

ther

Maximum Gradient 35 35 * 12.5 20 15

Earthquake Frequency* 29 0 0 5 0

Earthquake Experience Much Little Little Little Little

Annual Rainfall* Tokyo1,529mm

Paris653mm

Madrid437mm

Beijing534mm

Seoul1,429mm

* 35 in less than 4km gradient. 25 when longer.

JICA Study Team

Route Alignment

5

1.Jakarta Kota

2.Kemayoran

4.Pasar Senen

3.Gambir

5.Dukuh Atas

6.Manggarai

7.Senayan

8.Halim

Dukuh Atas (underground) is advisable for Jakarta Sta. due to ridership

and connection with other transportation.

Commercial and business district

Discussion with the related organizations

Selection of the Candidate Sites

Current state of open space (Existence of construction space)

Future scalability

Hazardous area of natural disaster

Primary Selection

Technical aspect

Economic aspect

Environmental aspect

Secondary Selection

JICA Study Team

Route Alignment

Only 37 minutes from Jakarta to Bandung

*1 Manggarai : after Manggarai redevelopment plan is implemented

*2 Karawang : when new airport inaugurates in future

*3 Walini : after Walini development as a new administration center of West Java Province Gov.

Station NameDistance

from Jakarta

Jakarta(underground)

0km

(Manggarai*1)(underground)

(3.5km)

Bekasi 26.1km

Cikarang 42.0km

(Karawang*2) (59.3km)

(Walini*3) (100.6km)

Bandung 128.5km

Gedebage 140.0km

6

Embankment,

24.7%

Cutting, 16.9%

Viaduct, 26.9%

Bridge, 1.1%

Cut & Cover, 0.4%

NATM, 20.1%

TBM (Shield

Tunnel), 10.0%

Stations to be opened in future

JICA Study Team

Demand Forecast

7

161.000

252.000

323.000

44.000

68.000

115.000

148.000

0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

350.000

2020 2030 2040 2050

HSR

rid

ersh

ip (p

ax /

day

)

year

JKT-SBY JKT-BDG

Car

65%

Bus

12%

Conv. Rail

5%

Air

18%

Car

Bus Conv. Rail

4%

Result of Demand Forecast

Conversion share from Each Transportation mode

(Jakarta Bandung in 2020)

Conversion share from Each Transportation mode

(Jakarta Surabaya in 2050)

Jakarta - Bandung Jakarta - Surabaya

Rp 200,000 Rp 800,000

HSR Fare

JICA Study Team

Demand Forecast

8

Type Line DistanceYearly

Passenger Volume

Year of Statistics

Java (Study) Jakarta Bandung 140 km 16,060,000 2020 (Estimated)

Java (Study) Jakarta Bandung 140 km 54,020,000 2050 (Estimated)

KTX Gyeongbu 412 km 15,220,000 2009

TGV Atlantique 290 km 32,000,000 2008

Taiwan HSR 339 km 46,310,000 2013

Shinkansen Tokaido 515 km 154,820,000 2013

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200Transportation Density

Java HSR will have a high level transportation density among the world wide HSR

Comparison on Transportation Density

Comparison on Fare and Wage

(Pax/day/km)

HSR Fare Wage/day Remarks

(A) (B) (C)=(A)/(B)

Indonesia DKI

Low income

(2013)

Rp. 200,000 Rp. 204,501 1.0

Non-agricultural

low income level

urban household

DKI

High income

(2013)

Rp. 200,000 Rp. 445,517 0.4

Non-agricultural

high income level

urban household

Taiwan All Area

(2007)NT$ 1,490 NT$ 1,480 1.0

Japan All Area

(1964)\ 2,480 \ 1,191 2.1

All Area

(1992)\ 14,430 \ 13,620 1.1

Planned HSR fare is reasonable price as compared with Shinkansen fare

JICA Study Team

Preliminary Environment and Social Considerations

9

Refined cost estimates associated with land acquisition and resettlement

Estimated market price for lands and structures through sample survey in each Kota /Kabupaten

Incorporated special requirements of compensation for forest and paddy fields

Estimated allowance and other costs associated with LARAP implementation

Province Land (ha) Household No.

DKI Jakarta 6.6 247

West Java 265.1*1 2,941

Total 271.7 3,188 Approx. IDR 3,960 billion

compensation (land, structure, underground space)

allowance indirect cost contingency

cost for preparing irrigated paddy field etc.

Planning

(Phase II)

Preparation (max 289 days)

Implementation (max 257 days)

Handover (37 days)

Timeline for land acquisition (Phase II + min 319 / max 583 working days)

Reviewed mechanism and schedule for LARAP implementation

*1: This figure includes 31ha of irrigated paddy field and 32ha of forest.

JICA Study Team

Cost Estimation(Project Cost)

10

Project Cost = 6,223 million USD (Total Length = 140km)Construction Cost = 4,429 million USD (31.6 million USD/km)

ItemF/C

(million USD)L/C

(billion IDR)Total

(million USD)

(1)C

on

stru

ctio

n /

Pro

cure

me

nt

Co

st Civil Works 140 km 916 16,253 2,591

Disaster Prevention Equipment 1 LS 19 10 20

Track Works 140 km 131 1,924 329

Station Works 1 LS 78 617 141

Depot/ Workshop 1 LS 228 1,399 372

Electric Facility 1 LS 440 1,312 576

System/Automatic Fare Collection 1 LS 35 0 35

Signaling and Telecommunications Facility 1 LS 224 1,364 364

Rolling Stock 84 cars 360 0 360

Maintenance Equipment 1 LS 22 0 22

Preparation for Operation 1 LS 10 98 20

Construction/Procurement Cost (sub-total) 140 km 2,463 22,977 4,831

(2) Land Acquisition Cost 272 ha 0 3,962 408(3) Consulting Service Cost 1 LS 104 1,144 221(4) Management Cost (3)x 10% 1 LS 0 215 22

(5) Contingency (1)(3) - Rolling Stock Costx 5% 1 LS 110 1,206 235(6) Value-added Taxes (1)(3)x 10% 1 LS 0 4,902 505

Project Cost 140 km 2,677 34,406 6,223

Project Cost (USD) 140 km 2,677 3,547 6,223

Project Cost (%) 43.0 57.0 100.0

: (1) - (Rolling Stock + Maintenance Eq. + Preparation for OP.) The base month for the calculation is March 2014. {(1) - (Rolling Stock + Maintenance Eq. + Preparation for OP.)} 5% 1 USD=9,701IDR=99.24JPY

JICA Study Team

(Almost double of initial construction cost)

(Unit: billion IDR)

Investment

VOC*Reduction

TravelTime

Saving

Economic Benefit

Increase

in Consumption

O&M

Increase

in demand

Increase in demand for

relevant industrial sector

Effect of Construction Effect of Operation

2.400 4.500

6.900 8.000

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

2020 2030 2040 2050

Project Effects

Employment creation in construction stage Approx. 35,000 workers

44,800 billion IDR 2,400 8,000 billion IDR

11

HSR Development

*: Vehicle Operation Cost

JICA Study Team

Business Scheme and Implementation Plan

12

Preconditions for examination of the institutional framework

Preference of the Indonesian side on the project modality

Consideration of private participation in the project implementation

Financial constraint of the state government

PPP-based Model: Preferred

Vertical Separation Model: Alternative (with establishment of two SOEs)=> Similar to the structure of Japan and France

Evaluation of Options

Implementation Structure

A new authority (High Speed Railway Authority) under the MoT

Need the authority for technical control of HSR

A new SOE engaged in HSR infrastructure development

An entity that can be a borrower of external debt

Introduction of new technology (i.e. standards, safety control, paradigm) that is different from the conventional lines

JICA Study Team

Proponent

SoE(Development and Asset

Management Company)

Business Entity

SPV(Operating Company)

PropertyDevelopment

(Station Building, etc.)

New unit of HSR(HSR-A)

MoT (DGR )

O&M of HSRAssociated Business

(Retail, advertising,

etc.)

MoFDonorODA Loan for Engineering

Services (E/S)

Recurrentcost for the

new

authority

Direct Appointment

On-lending/transfer for

E/S

Tender Process for PPP

Capital Injection

Financial Institutions

Investors

Debt

Equity

TA ProviderPMU

Civil Works, Depot, Other Facilities

Railway Systems & Track Works, Supplier:

Rolling Stock

Consulting ServicesPhase-1: Engineering Services*** Basic Design, Detail Design*** Project Modality Design*** Tender Document Preparation

& Tender Assistance for Civil Works, Procurement and PPP

GCA

Establishing a new authority for HSR and

PMU

Tender Process

Technical Support contract for O&M

Supporting Entity

Business Scheme and Implementation Plan (PPP Model)

13

Establishment of HSR Authority (HSR-A) and SOE for HSR development

Technical assistance to HSR-A Engineering services to SOE PPP for O&M and concession for

business around stations

[Stage 1: Engineering Services ]

: Financial Flow

: Other control/permit/contract

: PPP procurement process

JICA Study Team


14

Technical assistance to HSR-A Direct lending by SOE for construction Engineering services to SOE Cost sharing between Gov., SOE

(development company) and SPV

[Stage 2: Construction ]

Matching by SOE Inspection by SPV before leasing

: Financial Flow


: PPP contract

Proponent


Management Company)

Business Entity


Property Development

(Station Building, etc.)

O&M of HSR(Pre-operation)

Associated Business(Retail, advertising,

etc.)

ODA Loan for Construction

and

Procurement(Direct

Lending)

Government Guarantee

PPP Agreement & Supervising

Repayment of ODA Loan for Engineering

Services

Government Budget forConstruction

MoT (DGR )MoFDonor


Investors

Debt

Equity

TA Provider

Supervising


new unit

Civil Works, Depot, Other Facilities

Railway Systems & Track Works, Rolling

Stock

Consulting ServicesPhase-2: Construction Management*** Supervision of Construction

Works and Procurement*** Supervision of SPV's property

development and pre-operation*** Technology transfer

Supervising


Supporting Entity


PMU

JICA Study Team


15

[Stage 3: Operation ] Lease of infrastructure and facilities to

SPV Lease fee payment by SPV to SOE Repayment of loan by SOE Technical control by HSR-A Necessity of government support to the

demand risk (ex. availability payment)

: Financial Flow


: PPP contract


Management Company)

Business Entity


O&M of HSR(Full operation)

Associated Business(Retail, advertising,

etc.)

Controlling technical aspectRepayment of ODA Loan

for

Construction and

Procurement

Government Guarantee

Asset Leasing

Lease Fee Payment from Fare Box Revenue

Passengers

ServiceFare

Repayment of ODA Loan for Engineering

Services


Investors

Repayment

Dividend

Availability PaymentSharing the remaining Fare Box Revenue with the

government

Customers

ServiceCharge

MoT (DGR )MoFDonor

Negotiating fare changes

Controlling technical aspect


new unit

TA Provider


Supporting Entity

Property Development

Customers

ServiceCharge


PMU

JICA Study Team


16

Players Function/Action

DGR Approving technical standards prepared by HSR-A

(approval only, actual enforcement will be done by HSR-A)Stage 1,2,3

HSR Authority(HSR-A)

Developing HSR technical standards and certification systems Enforcing the regulations and standards Supervising the project implementation (including O&M by SPV)

Stage 1Stage 2,3Stage 2,3

SOE

Getting loans for the HSR development from donor(s) Conducting the basic and detail design (with Engineering Services) Preparing the tender documents (with Engineering Services) Procuring and supervising contractors and suppliers (with Engineering Services) Training the company staff (with Engineering Services) Managing the assets after construction Receiving lease fee from SPV and repaying the loan to donor(s)

Stage 1Stage 1Stage 1Stage 2

Stage 1,2,3Stage 3Stage 3

SPV

Implementing the PPP portion (station building construction, pre-operation, etc.)

Training the O&M staff Operating and maintaining HSR Paying the lease fee to the SOE Carrying out the associated business

Stage 1, 2

Stage 1,2,3Stage 3Stage 3

Stage 2,3

Task Allocation

Stage 1: Engineering Services / Stage 2: Construction / Stage 3: Operation

JICA Study Team

Risk ExposureRisk Allocation

State Govt. HSR-A SOE SPV

Preparation Stage

Establishment of HSR-A and SOE XX

Land Acquisition XX

Selection of suitable loans XX (coordination)

Stage 1: Engineering Services

Approval process of the project XX

Procurement of SPV XX

Development cost and consultingfees

XX XX XX


Risk Allocation (1/2)

17

JICA Study Team

Risk ExposureRisk Allocation

State Govt. HSR-A SOE SPV

Stage 2: Construction

Land development (coordination) XX

Design fault XX XX

Cost overrun and delay (Support) XX XX

Commissioning XX XX

Matching (System integration) XX

Stage 3: Operation

Inspection before leasing XX

Availability of facilities XX

Performance of services XX

Ridership XX

Government policy change XX XX

End of concession transfer XX XX XX XX


Risk Allocation (2/2)

18

JICA Study Team


19

Financing Plan

Financing

Soft loan

Commercial Bank Loan

Major part of initial investment

Private investment portion

Avoiding cash flow financing to cover the repayment

Setting less annual lease fees paid by SPV (operating company)

Cost Sharing among Key Players

Civil works cost Borne by the government and SOE

Less risks uncontrolled by SPV

HSR core systems NOT to be separated

Avoiding the system integration risk

(Delay in full operation due to integration of separated systems)

JICA Study Team 20

Share (%) to Total

Project Cost

Sub-Total

Gov SOE SPV

9.67 45.23 5.89

PPP Model

16% 74% 10%

Gov SPV

3.96 56.83

Private Model

6% 94%

(Unit: trillion IDR)

Total Project Cost

FIRR (%) 0.97

EIRR (%) 12.50

14.93

Equity IRR (%)

Project IRR (%)

109.69

DSCR (Minimum) 1.52

22.65

60.79 60.79

Project Year: 50 year

Social discount rate: 12%

Economic Benefit: supplier benefit,

reduction of travel costs, reduction of

vehicle operation cost

Loan conditions

SOE: interest rate 0.1%, 40 years repayment period

(10 years grace period

(assuming conditions of STEP Loan)

SPV: interest rate 14%, 10 years repayment period

Debt equity ratio of SPV: 85 - 15

Land Acquisition- Land Acquisition 6.5%- Engineering Services

(ES-I) 1.2%- Management Cost 0.1%- VAT exemption 8.2%

Direct Lending from donor to SOE (excluding management cost)

12.50

< Findings >Private model NOT feasible

due to continuous cash flow financing

Need concessionary loanssuch as STEP to reduce the financial cost

Need availability payment to attract business entities to participation in the project

Cash Flow for Private Model

Deficit balance over almost all the project years

Accumulated Loss in 2035: -91,675 billion Rp.

NOT Feasible

0.18

Negative Net Cash Flow

4.90


Negative Net Cash Flow

JICA Study Team

Note: These figures are just for reference in order to examine the cost sharing among the government, SOE and SPV.


Optimizing the cost sharing

21

Unit: billiion IDR

Breakdown Gov SOE SPV Gov SOE SPV Gov SOE SPV Gov SOE SPV

Embankment 2,114 2,114 2,114 2,114

Cutting 766 766 766 766

U type Retaining Wall 167 167 167 167

Viaduct (Regular Bridge) 8,178 8,178 8,178 8,178

Bridge 419 419 419 419

Tunnel (Mountain Tunneling) 5,266 5,266 5,266 5,266

Shield Tunnel 6,402 6,402 6,402 6,402

Cut and Cover 881 881 881 881

Transverse 422 422 422 422

Service Road 358 358 358 358

Environmental Program 165 165 165 165

Sub-Total 0 25,138 0 0 25,138 0 0 16,959 8,178 0 16,959 8,178

Disaster Prevention Equipment 196 196 196 196

Track Works 3,193 3,193 3,193 3,193

Station Works 1,371 1,371 1,371 1,371

Depot/ Workshop 3,611 1,269 2,342 3,611 3,611

Electric Facility 5,584 5,584 5,584 5,584

System/Automatic Fare Collection 339 339 339 339

Signaling and Telecommunications Facility 3,535 3,535 3,535 3,535

Rolling Stock 3,490 3,490 3,490 3,490

Maintenance Equipment 216 216 216 216

Preparation for Operation 196 196 196 196

(1) Construction/Procurement Cost 0 41,550 5,317 0 39,354 7,513 0 36,907 9,961 0 33,100 13,767

(2) Land Acquisition Cost 3,962 3,962 3,962 3,962

(3) Consulting Service Cost 680 1,397 266 680 1,288 376 680 1,575 89 680 1,384 279

(4) Management Cost 68 139 27 68 129 38 68 157 9 68 138 28

(5) Contingency 34 2,147 279 34 2,032 394 34 1,924 502 34 1,724 702

(6) Value-added Taxes 4,921 4,921 4,921 4,921

9,665 45,233 5,889 9,665 42,803 8,321 9,665 40,563 10,561 9,665 36,347 14,777

16% 74% 10% 16% 70% 14% 16% 67% 17% 16% 60% 24%

Item

Pattern 1 (Base Case) Pattern 2 Pattern 3 Pattern 4

Co

nst

ructi

on

/ P

rocu

rem

en

t C

ost

Civ

il W

ork

s

Total Project Cost

Percentage to Total Project Cost

JICA Study Team


22


Engineering Services

Construction & Others

Land Acquisition

VAT

Item Gov SOE SPV

3.96

4.94

9.67 45.23 5.89

5.8945.23

Base Case

(16%) (74%) (10%)

Gov SOE SPV

3.96

4.94

9.67 42.80 8.32

0.06 8.3242.80

Pattern 2

(16%) (70%) (14%)

Gov SOE SPV

3.96

4.94

9.67 40.56 10.56

0.06 10.5640.56

Pattern 3

(16%) (67%) (17%)

Gov SOE SPV

3.96

4.94

9.67 36.34 14.78

0.06 14.7836.34

Pattern 4

(16%) (60%) (24%)

VAT: Exemption by the Government

(Unit: trillion IDR)

0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71

Financing

TotalPercentage to

total project cost

L-ES

GB

L-ES: ODA loan for engineering services GB: Government budget for other partL-C: ODA loan for construction OB: Own budget for management costE: Equity from investors CBL: Commercial bank loan for debt portion

L-C

OB

CBL

E

L-ES

GB

L-C

OB

CBL

E

L-ES

GB

L-C

OB

CBL

E

L-ES

GB

L-C

OB

CBL

E

60.79 60.79 60.79 60.79

0.06

JICA Study Team 23


FIRR (%)

Equity IRR (%)

Project IRR (%)

Item Gov SOE SPV

109.69

Base Case

Gov SOE SPV

62.80

Pattern 2

Gov SOE SPV

24.71

Pattern 3

Gov SOE SPV

19.08

Pattern 4

0.97

EIRR (%) 12.50

14.93 0.97 12.35 0.98 9.91 0.97 8.69

DSCR (Minimum)

17.36 13.13 10.08

1.11 -1.701.52

22.65

0.76

Debt : Equity = 85 : 15

Economic and Financial Analysis (PPP Model)

JICA Study Team

BLANK

JICA Study Team

Overall Study Summary

24

Travel Time: 37minutes between Jakarta and Bandung Route: 140 km between Jakarta Gedebage with 5 stations at opening Train Operations: 12 car trains (Capacity 925 pax.) Passengers: 44,000 pax./day (2020) Fare (Jakarta Bandung ): Rp 200,000 Decline of Road Traffic: 30% in 2020, and 58% in 2030

(Jakarta - Bandung OD pair, if no road construction is made) Multiplier Effect: Almost double of initial construction cost

and 35,000 new employment creation Land Acquisition: 31ha of irrigated paddy field and 32ha of forest Project Cost: US$ 6,223 million Project Scheme: Public sector-led project funded its major part of initial

investment with; Concessional interest rate, and Ultra-long term maturity (e.g. 40 years)

EIRR: 12.50% (beyond Social benchmark of 12%) FIRR of SPV: 14.93% to 8.69% (SPV cost sharing: 10% to 24%)

FIRR of SOE: 0.97% to 0.98% (SOE cost sharing: 60% to 74%)

JICA Study Team

Phase I Study Conclusions

25

1. HSR Jakarta Surabaya is necessary Accelerating and spreading high economic and social development by

reducing regional gaps among major cities Introducing an energy- and environment-friendly fast public transportation

mean compared to others

2. Jakarta Bandung is recommended as Priority 1st Phase Section As the first section with a high potential considering funding, managing

railway ability and demand Suitable for intensified technology transfer of HSR operation know-how and

technology

3. Introducing Japanese HSR is relevant and appropriate Safety at most importance - Japan having no passenger fatalities and even no

injuries history over 50 years Technically most advanced - rich measures for earthquakes, steep gradient,

humidity and small tunnel cross section technology. Reliable and Punctual Service - by highly reputed Series E5 (Max.320km/h)

with 300km/h at the beginning of operation

JICA Study Team

1. HSR Route to be Registered in Spatial Plans TOD plan at HSR station considering transfer to/from feeder services

and access to roads To regulate land use alongside the alignment To relax Floor to space index around stations

2. HSR Project to Start NOW Long preparation period is required to make legislations and regulations Rapid urbanization will make it difficult to conduct land acquisition of

suitable route

3. Land Acquisition to be Conducted in Quick Manner Compensation generated exclusively by Public Projects - Underground-

pass, Reduction of income tax, etc Compulsory Land Acquisition Law - Enactment and enforcement

Recommendations & Way Forward 1/2

26

JICA Study Team

Recommendations & Way Forward 2/2

27

4. PPP Project Enabling Framework to be well Introduced Improvement of PPP regulations on government support to ridership risk

(provision of availability payment) Direct lending allowed to SOEs for Infrastructure Projects

5. Institutional Building for HSR to be Conducted Soon HSR-A for technology and safety: Basic specification, Pre-Opening

processes, Drivers license, Safety and investigation SOE Establishment for development of HSR infrastructure and facilities

6. Capacity Building for HSR-A and SOE to be done accordingly HSR-A: Technical assistance to develop technical regulations and

standards and certification systems SOE: Engineering services to support technical aspects of HSR

7. Possible New and Innovative Financing Tools to be Explored Possible financing sources in future Partial Risk Guarantee, REIT, LVC,

Town Planning Scheme and Station Area Development

JICA Study Team

Conventional Financing Menu

Partial Risk Guarantee Private Sector Bank Loan rather short for

Infrastructure Finance World Bank & JBIC Offering Partial Risk

Guarantee beyond the period Private Sector Bank can assume

Innovative Financial Menu

From Japan (possibility)To Public Portion JICA ODA (Untied, STEP Loan)To Private Portion JICA PSIF Equity/Loan JBIC Export, Investment Loan JOIN Equity Investment Japanese Bank Infra Finance

From Indonesia PT Sarana Multi Infrastruktur (IIF)

Equity/Lending IIFF Lending - PT SMI with Partners (e.g. SMBC,

MUFG) PT Penjaminan Infrastruktur Indonesia (IIGF)

Guarantee Municipal Bond Issue

Real Estate Investment Trust(REIT)/Infrastructure Investment Trust(InvIT) listed to stock exchange, a perpetual certificate

Case: Private Sector Finance with Partial Risk Gurantee

Construction Period O&M Period

Loan Disbursement Loan Repayment Partial Risk Guarantee

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Case: ODA LOAN + REIT (10 years of grace)

Construction Period O&M Period

Loan Disbursement Grace Period Loan Repayment

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

REIT

Possible Financing Resources in Future

28

JICA Study Team 29

Land Value Capture Financing Financing Mechanism Capturing Future

Land Value Monetizing and Facilitating Infra / Urban

Development Implementation Well developed in USA, Japan and India

New Way of Financial Resources Suitable for PPP Projects Attractive to both Public and Private Sector Development-based LVC and Tax-based LVC

(1) Town Planning Scheme (TPS) No land acquisition necessary, but Local municipalities, railway station owners and

land owners are invited

(2) Station Development HSR/Railway Stations are not only Entry /

Departing Points for Passengers. Stations Facilities for Passengers but also

Visitors to Stations

HSR Impact to Regional Growth

Source: Shinkansens Local Impact, 2010, Christopher Hood, Oxford Univ.

Enhancing business

opportunities of local

companies

Possible Financing Resources in Future

Cities with

HSR Stations

National

Average

Population Growth

(1975 - 1995)32% 12%

Company Number Growth

(1975 - 1991)46% 21%

Local Gov't Receipt Growth

(1980 - 1993)155% 110%

JICA Study Team 30

Groundbreaking

Implementation Schedule (Conservative Case)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Responsible Entity

(1) Policy and Legal (Enabling) Framework

Amendment of law for direct lending to SOE MoF

Improvement of PPP regulations for Availability Payment MoF, Bappenas

Development of presidential decree on HSR-A & SOE establishment MoT, MoF, MoBUMN

(2) Institutional Building

Preparing for establishment of HSR-A MoT

Development of technical regulations and standards of HSR HSR-A

Preparing for establishment of SOE (Development Company) MoT

(3) Capacity Building

For government officials on HSR development

(legal, technical, safety, etc.)Coordination by CMEA

For HSR-A on technical regulations and standards and supervision

of development and operationHSR-A

For SOE (development company) on design,

procurement and supervision of construction worksSOE

For operation company (Training in the classroom & On-Site) SPV

(4) Possible New (and Innovative) Financial Tools

Consideration of possible financial resources in future Coordination by CMEA

Detail design (Project Implementation with PPP) Management by SOE

Tendering process Management by SOE

Construction works, rolling stock procurement and pre-operation Supervised by SOE

Phase II Study Donor & Consultant

[ Engineering Services (ES) ] Donor & ConsultantES - I

ES - II

Establishment

Establishment

Inauguration

On-Site

JICA Study Team 31

Ground Breaking2019

Go Sign by Government of Indonesia

Implementation Schedule (Accelerated Case)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Responsible Entity

(1) Policy and Legal (Enabling) Framework

Amendment of law for direct lending to SOE MoF

Improvement of PPP regulations for Availability Payment MoF, Bappenas

Development of presidential decree on HSR-A & SOE establishment MoT, MoF, MoBUMN

(2) Institutional Building

Preparing for establishment of HSR-A MoT

Development of technical regulations and standards of HSR HSR-A

Preparing for establishment of SOE (Development Company) MoT

(3) Capacity Building

For government officials on HSR development

(legal, technical, safety, etc.)Coordination by CMEA

For HSR-A on technical regulations and standards and supervision

of development and operationHSR-A

For SOE (development company) on design,

procurement and supervision of construction worksSOE

For operation company (Training in the classroom & On-Site) SPV

(4) Possible New (and Innovative) Financial Tools

Consideration of possible financial resources in future Coordination by CMEA

Detail design (Project Implementation with PPP) Management by SOE

Tendering process Management by SOE

Construction works, rolling stock procurement and pre-operation Supervised by SOE

Phase II Study Donor & Consultant

[ Engineering Services (ES) ] Donor & ConsultantES - I

ES - II

Establishment

Establishment

Inauguration

On-Site

JICA Study Team

Terima Kasih

32

HSR Transportation capacity corresponds to 10 lanes toll road

JICA Study Team 33

APPENDIX

Concept of Transport NetworkWith

High Speed Railway Development

TOD (Transit Oriented Development) is recommended

centering on the new HSR stations.

JICA Study Team

DKI Jakarta

34

JICA Study Team

Bekasi

35

JICA Study Team

Cikarang

36

JICA Study Team

Bandung and Gedebage

37

studi kelayakan proyek kereta api cepat jakarta-bandung tahap i

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