Seminar, 23 Maret 2010Universitas Gunadarma

CAFT

ASO WHAT??Oleh: Prof. Dr. EriyatnoCenter for Policy Reform

CATTENACHIO STRATEGY

1. Comparative Advantage2. KONG-CHOW3. Swadeshi

CAFTA

So What?

?

SIAUW-LIEM PAY VS BOE-TONG PAY

Kode rimba persilatan: Tidak mungkin seorang tay hiap menguasai ilmu dari dua perguruan yang berbeda aliran

CAFTA

So What?

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US MODEL VS CHINA MODEL

INDO MODEL: Pilih mana??

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SAVING RATE

US : 0% 4% (09) 6% (10)China : >20% (2.1 US $ T in

reserve)China punya US Bond - 696 B $

REFINANCING-DEBT STRATEGY(Gali Utang-Tutup Utang)

*Jual obligasi untuk melunasi pinjaman agar bisa mengajukan hutang baru

DEBT TRAP

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US : Nation of Debtors

- 13 credit cards per household- Average 120.000 $ mortgage (8.3

miliion negative equity)- US budget $3.6 T; deficit $1.75 T- US unemployment : 10.2 %

US Export No 1: Debt

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FAKTA : HUTANG RI

• Sukarno (1945-1967) : Rp. 23 T• Suharto (1967-1998): Rp. 540 T• Habibie (1998-2000) : Rp. 740 T• SBY (2000-2009) : Rp. 1552T

- pinjaman ln : Rp. 643 T, i=4% - obligasi/SUN : Rp. 909 T, i=9% - Oct 2008 : Rp. 1.636 T - Oct 2009 : Rp. 1.604 T (32% PDB)

*Catatan: PDB 2009 di patok Rp. 5.401 T*Proyeksi Hutang 2010 (30-31% PDB)

2014 (24-25% PDB)*Penerimaan negara dan hibah Rp. 981.61 T

(2008)

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PROFIL JATUH TEMPO UTANG RI

Tahun

Pinjaman luar negeri (Rp triliun)

Surat berharga negara (Rp triliun)

Total (Rp triliun)

2009     1142010 71 59 1302011 39 48 872012 62 47 1092013 42 48 902014 62 47 109

CAFTA

So What?

?

RULE OF LAW

KEBIJAKAN

DISCRETIONARY POWER

KEBIJAKSANAAN

STRATEGIC DECISION(POLICY

RESEARCH)

BLINK DECISION (MOTIVATIONAL

RESEARCH

CAFTA

So What?

?

THE

BAIL-

OUT

C-

CASE

PERPU –JPSK/PBI

KEBIJAKAN

KEPUTUSAN KKSK/KK

KEBIJAKSANAAN

15 SIB-SYSTEMIC IMPORTANT BANK

(TECHNICAL CRITERIA)

BANK GAGAL BERDAMPAK SISTEMIK (FAKTOR PSIKOLOGIS)

THE BEGINNING OF THE END

CAFTA

So What?

?

Crisis Management

Protocol

LEGAL LIMIT

Timeliness

Lack of info

Shock absorber

TextInsurance for

Decision Makers

Masalah adalah Belum ada CMP...!!!

CAFTA

So What?

?

CRISIS TRAP

CAFTA

So What?

?

The freedom to act and think as one wishes usually within legal limits

Ilmu Silat Refleks hasil latihan tahunanIlmu Ekonomi Rekfleksi “school of thought”Decision Science Refleksi “motivational driven”

DISCRETIONARY

CAFTA

So What?

?

Stability is the root of Instability (oxymoron)

1

Moral hazards (Evil follows the Devil)2

Politisasi Kriminal (Watergate)3

Counterknowledge (Unproven Hypothesis)

4

Conspiracy Theory (Chameleon Attitude)

5

MENYELESAIKAN MASALAH DENGAN MASALAH

CAFTA

So What?

?

• Just trusting intuition, especially intuition unenlightened by logic, leads to desperate detours and even dead ends

• Remember that even while walking in the dark, we have to keep our eyes wide and avoid preconceived ideas

• Whether errors in analysis come from models or not, they maybe directly linked to experts whose erroneous view point are spread out the basis of simple reputation.

WHY NEED CMP ??

CAFTA

So What?

?

CMP DESIGN

1. It can provide interpretation of the vast amount of information monitored by the system. It helps the policy makers greatly in finding the roots of the problems and opportunities.

2. It provides explanations to questions that may be raised by CMP–users about the reasoning factors or the conception of the system integration.

3. It helps in model formulation and algorithm option as well as in the result interpretation, thus making better use of analytical tools while performing the decision making activity.

The best available methodIESS-Intelligent Executive Support

System(Chen and Yuefeng, 2003)The Effectiveness of IESS

CAFTA

So What?

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4. It gives problem solution through reasoning with domain knowledge when numerical/ quantitative calculation is non-feasible or insufficient

5. It contains knowledge about search strategy, helps the users access relevant data, information and other form of reliable sources.

6. Application of modern ICT will support interactive consultation and consensus management by various disciplines of experts.

7. Complex calculus and symbolic processing can be easily integrated within IESS.

CAFTA

So What?

?

CMP-product must convey consensus rather than analytical conclusion.Therefore, the protocol must follow the rule of maximum focus group discussion.

(Pierce, 2008)

Expert opinion is the backbone of CMP quality assurance. The CMP-team is not one-man show.

CAFTA

So What?

?

• Step by step guidance in hostile environment

• Art of navigating within turbulence weather

1. Within legal limit2. Flexibility management

Produk: JUKLAK/JUKLIS-Formal

APLIKASI CMP

CAFTA

So What?

?

Jim Collins, 2009

FIVE STAGES OF DECLINE

CAFTA