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Proyeksi
Penduduk Kabupaten/Kota
Provinsi Kepulauan Riau
2010-2020
BADAN PUSAT STATISTIK
DATA M E N C E R D A S K A N B A N G S A
PR
OY
EK
SI P
EN
DU
DU
K
KA
BU
PA
TE
N/K
OT
A
PR
OV
INS
I KE
PU
LA
UA
N
RIA
U T
AH
UN
2010-2
020
BADAN PUSAT STATISTIK
Jl. Dr. Sutomo 6-8 Jakarta10710 Tel. : (021) 3841195, 3842508, 3810291-4Fax. : (021) 3857046
Homepage : http://www.bps.go.id E-mail : [email protected]
BADAN PUSAT STATISTIK
UNITED NATIONS POPULATION FUND
JAKARTA 2015
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ProyeksiPenduduk Kabupaten/KotaProvinsi Kepulauan Riau
2010-2020ht
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PROYEKSI PENDUDUK KABUPATEN/KOTA
TAHUN 2010 – 2020 PROVINSI KEPULAUAN RIAU
Pengarah:
Drs. Razali Ritonga, MA
Tim Teknis:
Dr. Indra Murty Surbakti, MA; Poetrijanti, S.Si; Dendi Handiyatmo SST, M.Si;
Hermawan Agustina, S.Kom;
Penyusun/Penulis:
Trophy Endah Rahayu, M.Si
Apriliani Nurida Dwi A, S.Si
Pengolah Data:
Elfrida Zoraya, S.Si
Layout:
Parwoto SST, M.Stat
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KATA PENGANTAR
Proyeksi Penduduk Indonesia tahun 2010 - 2035 yang merupakan proyeksi penduduk
untuk tingkat nasional dan provinsi telah diterbitkan pada tahun 2013. Untuk memenuhi
kebutuhan data penduduk pada tingkat kabupaten/kota maka disusun proyeksi ini
berdasarkan hasil Sensus Penduduk 2010 dan sesuai dengan asumsi penghitungan proyeksi
nasional dan provinsi. Adapun metode yang digunakan memanfaatkan tren pertumbuhan
penduduk sejak tahun 2000, dimana data kabupaten/kota sudah tersedia.
Publikasi Proyeksi Kabupaten/Kota disusun untuk periode 2010 - 2020 dengan tujuan
untuk menunjang perencanaan pada tingkat kabupaten/kota di masa kini dan mendatang.
Periode yang disampaikan cukup singkat dengan pertimbangan agar tren yang digunakan
tidak terlalu menyimpang, sehingga hasil proyeksi ini masih dianggap realistis. Dengan
demikian, untuk saat ini Badan Pusat Statistik telah menyediakan data proyeksi penduduk
tingkat nasional, provinsi, dan kabupaten/kota yang dapat dimanfaatkan oleh semua
pengguna data.
Penyusunan buku ini merupakan hasil kerja sama antara BPS dan UNFPA. Kami
mengucapkan terima kasih kepada semua pihak yang telah membantu penyusunan buku ini.
Semoga bermanfaat dan dapat memenuhi kebutuhan semua pihak yang memerlukan,
khususnya bagi pihak yang berminat pada masalah sosial dan kependudukan.
Jakarta, Juni 2015
Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik,
Dr. Suryamin, M.Sc
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DAFTAR ISI
Halaman
KATA PENGANTAR ............................................................................................................... iii
DAFTAR ISI ............................................................................................................................ v
BAB I. PENDAHULUAN.......................................................................................................... 1
BAB II. METODOLOGI ........................................................................................................... 3
LAMPIRAN
Tabel I.1 Proyeksi Penduduk Menurut Kabupaten/Kota dan Jenis Kelamin Tahun
2010 - 2020 ........................................................................................................ 7
Tabel I.2 Rasio Jenis Kelamin Menurut Kabupaten/Kota Tahun 2010 - 2020 ................ 10
Tabel I.3 Rasio Ketergantungan Menurut Kabupaten/Kota Tahun 2010 - 2020 ............ 11
Tabel I.4 Persentase Penduduk Perkotaan Menurut Kabupaten/Kota Tahun
2010 - 2020 ...................................................................................................... 12
Tabel I.5 Persentase Penduduk Lansia Menurut Kabupaten/Kota Tahun 2010 - 2020 . 13
Gambar I Piramida Penduduk Menurut Kabupaten/Kota Tahun 2010 - 2020 ................ 14
Tabel II Proyeksi Penduduk Menurut Jenis Kelamin dan Kelompok Umur Tahun
2010 - 2020 ...................................................................................................... 21
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BAB I
PENDAHULUAN
Informasi mengenai jumlah penduduk untuk wilayah kabupaten/kota pada suatu
waktu tertentu dibutuhkan dalam perencanaan program dan penentuan kebijakan di
wilayah tersebut. Ketersediaan data penduduk dapat dipenuhi dari hasil sensus penduduk
ataupun survei tentang kependudukan namun sayangnya tidak setiap tahun tersedia. Oleh
karena itu, perlu dibuat suatu perkiraan mengenai jumlah penduduk untuk wilayah
kabupaten/kota untuk mengisi kekosongan pada tahun-tahun tertentu atau untuk masa
yang akan datang. Ketersediaan data penduduk selain jumlahnya juga dilengkapi dengan
karakteristik jenis kelamin dan umur.
Secara nasional dan pada tingkat provinsi informasi penduduk masa yang datang
diproyeksikan menggunakan metode komponen, dimana metode tersebut
mempertimbangkan pengaruh kelahiran, kematian, dan perpindahan. Untuk tingkat
kabupaten/kota dilakukan estimasi penduduk dengan mempertimbangkan laju
pertumbuhan untuk masing-masing kabupaten/kota, dimana jumlahnya dipagu dari hasil
proyeksi provinsinya. Metode estimasi yang digunakan untuk memperkirakan penduduk
masa yang akan datang menggunakan metode geometrik. Pemilihan metode ini didasarkan
kesesuaian pertambahan secara geometrik dengan perkembangan jumlah penduduk dan
disadari bahwa belum dapat dilakukannya proyeksi komponen untuk kabupaten/kota
karena komponen pertumbuhan belum tersedia lengkap.
Proyeksi penduduk kabupaten/kota menurut kelompok umur, dan jenis kelamin
yang disajikan dalam publikasi ini mencakup kurun waktu sepuluh tahun, mulai tahun 2010
sampai dengan 2020. Pembuatan proyeksi dengan kurun waktu singkat ini dimaksudkan
agar hasilnya dapat digunakan untuk berbagai keperluan terutama perencanaan di masa
datang.
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BAB II
METODOLOGI
Estimasi penduduk dengan metode geometrik menggunakan asumsi bahwa jumlah
penduduk akan bertambah secara geometrik menggunakan dasar perhitungan bunga
majemuk. Laju pertumbuhan penduduk (rate of growth) dianggap sama untuk setiap tahun.
Berikut formula yang digunakan pada metode geometrik:
0 1t
tP P r
1
0
1t
tPr
P
dimana:
tP = jumlah penduduk pada tahun t
0P = jumlah penduduk pada tahun awal
r = laju pertumbuhan penduduk
t = periode waktu antara tahun dasar dan tahun t (dalam tahun)
Data yang dibutuhkan:
Jumlah penduduk Indonesia hasil proyeksi penduduk 2010 - 2020 yang dirinci
menurut provinsi.
Jumlah penduduk kabupaten/kota hasil SP2000, SP2010, khusus untuk
kabupaten/kota di Provinsi Aceh dan Pulau Nias menggunakan data hasil SPAN2005.
Tahapan menghitung proyeksi penduduk kabupaten/kota:
1. Menentukan sumber data dari hasil sensus penduduk dan menyiapkan dua data
penduduk untuk tahun yang berbeda pada suatu wilayah yang akan diestimasi.
2. Menghitung rata-rata laju pertumbuhan penduduk (LPP) per tahun dengan
metode geometrik berdasarkan jumlah penduduk dari dua data.
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3. Melakukan proses prorata, agar penjumlahan penduduk untuk semua
kabupaten/kota menjadi sama dengan penduduk provinsi (penduduk provinsi
sebagai kontrol).
4. Jumlah penduduk per kabupaten/kota ini selanjutnya akan digunakan sebagai
kontrol untuk menghitung jumlah penduduk menurut kota/desa, jenis kelamin,
maupun menurut kelompok umur.
5. Estimasi penduduk untuk karakteristik jenis kelamin diolah terlebih dahulu,
kemudian dilanjutkan dengan estimasi penduduk perkotaan dan perdesaan.
6. Melakukan proses iterasi untuk penduduk kabupaten/kota menurut jenis
kelamin dan kelompok umur, dengan jumlah penduduk provinsi sebagai kontrol.
7. Untuk kabupaten/kota pemekaran yang pada saat sensus belum terbentuk, data
ditelusuri menggunakan data SP2000, SPAN2005, dan SP2010.
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LAMPIRAN
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GG
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KO
TA
BA
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10
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TA
TA
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10
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http
://www.b
ps.g
o.id
11
Ta
be
l I.
3
RA
SIO
KE
TE
RG
AN
TU
NG
AN
ME
NU
RU
T K
AB
UP
AT
EN
/KO
TA
TA
HU
N 2
01
0 -
20
20
KE
PU
LAU
AN
RIA
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KA
BU
PA
TE
N/K
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A
20
10
2
01
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20
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2
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3
20
14
2
01
5
20
16
2
01
7
20
18
2
01
9
20
20
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(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10
) (1
1)
(12
)
KA
RIM
UN
5
2,6
1
53
,41
5
4,2
2
54
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5
5,2
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55
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53
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TA
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50
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5
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6
52
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5
2,0
5
51
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5
0,3
3
49
,40
NA
TU
NA
5
5,2
2
56
,05
5
6,8
7
57
,58
5
7,9
5
57
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5
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GG
A
51
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52
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53
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51
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5
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8
49
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PU
LAU
AN
AN
AM
BA
S
55
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57
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58
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55
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53
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KO
TA
B A
T A
M
43
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44
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TA
TA
NJU
NG
PIN
AN
G
47
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49
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LAH
4
6,7
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47
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49
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8,1
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http
://www.b
ps.g
o.id
12
Ta
be
l I.
4
PE
RS
EN
TA
SE
PE
ND
UD
UK
PE
RK
OT
AA
N
ME
NU
RU
T K
AB
UP
AT
EN
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TA
TA
HU
N 2
01
0 -
20
20
KE
PU
LAU
AN
RIA
U
KA
BU
PA
TE
N/K
OT
A
20
10
2
01
1
20
12
2
01
3
20
14
2
01
5
20
16
2
01
7
20
18
2
01
9
20
20
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10
) (1
1)
(12
)
KA
RIM
UN
6
1,3
7
61
,39
6
1,4
1
61
,44
6
1,4
6
61
,49
6
4,4
8
67
,47
7
0,4
6
73
,46
7
6,4
5
BIN
TA
N
60
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6
0,6
9
60
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6
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5
60
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6
0,8
0
63
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6
6,7
8
69
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7
2,7
5
75
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NA
TU
NA
4
4,6
9
44
,71
4
4,7
3
44
,74
4
4,7
6
44
,78
4
7,7
7
50
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5
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7
56
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5
9,7
6
LIN
GG
A
38
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3
8,4
1
38
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3
8,4
5
38
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3
8,4
8
41
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53
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PU
LAU
AN
AN
AM
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S
39
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KO
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97
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JUM
LAH
8
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6
82
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83
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83
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http
://www.b
ps.g
o.id
13
Ta
be
l I.
5
PE
RS
EN
TA
SE
PE
ND
UD
UK
LA
NS
IA
ME
NU
RU
T K
AB
UP
AT
EN
/KO
TA
TA
HU
N 2
01
0 -
20
20
KE
PU
LAU
AN
RIA
U
KA
BU
PA
TE
N/K
OT
A
20
10
2
01
1
20
12
2
01
3
20
14
2
01
5
20
16
2
01
7
20
18
2
01
9
20
20
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10
) (1
1)
(12
)
KA
RIM
UN
5
,89
6
,10
6
,32
6
,57
6
,83
7
,14
7
,45
7
,80
8
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8
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8
,98
BIN
TA
N
4,8
0
4,9
8
5,1
9
5,4
2
5,6
7
5,9
5
6,2
5
6,5
8
6,9
3
7,3
0
7,7
0
NA
TU
NA
5
,12
5
,31
5
,51
5
,75
6
,00
6
,28
6
,58
6
,90
7
,25
7
,62
8
,01
LIN
GG
A
7,7
0
7,9
5
8,2
2
8,5
3
8,8
7
9,2
4
9,6
3
10
,05
1
0,5
1
10
,99
1
1,4
8
KE
PU
LAU
AN
AN
AM
BA
S
5,4
0
5,5
8
5,8
0
6,0
3
6,2
9
6,5
8
6,8
8
7,2
0
7,5
7
7,9
4
8,3
3
KO
TA
BA
TA
M
1,6
2
1,6
9
1,7
8
1,8
8
1,9
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2,1
2
2,2
5
2,4
0
2,5
5
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2
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0
KO
TA
TA
NJU
NG
PIN
AN
G
5,2
2
5,4
0
5,6
1
5,8
4
6,0
9
6,3
7
6,6
6
6,9
7
7,3
2
7,6
8
8,0
6
JUM
LAH
3
,37
3
,46
3
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3
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3
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3
,99
4
,16
4
,35
4
,55
4
,77
5
,00
http
://www.b
ps.g
o.id
14
Gambar I.1 PIRAMIDA PENDUDUK KARIMUN
TAHUN 2010 – 2020
http
://www.b
ps.g
o.id
15
Gambar I.2 PIRAMIDA PENDUDUK BINTAN
TAHUN 2010 – 2020
http
://www.b
ps.g
o.id
16
Gambar I.3 PIRAMIDA PENDUDUK NATUNA
TAHUN 2010 – 2020
http
://www.b
ps.g
o.id
17
Gambar I.4 PIRAMIDA PENDUDUK LINGGA
TAHUN 2010 – 2020
http
://www.b
ps.g
o.id
18
Gambar I.5 PIRAMIDA PENDUDUK KEPULAUAN ANAMBAS
TAHUN 2010 – 2020
http
://www.b
ps.g
o.id
19
Gambar I.6 PIRAMIDA PENDUDUK KOTA BATAM
TAHUN 2010 – 2020
http
://www.b
ps.g
o.id
20
Gambar I.7 PIRAMIDA PENDUDUK KOTA TANJUNG PINANG
TAHUN 2010 – 2020
http
://www.b
ps.g
o.id
21
Ta
be
l II
.1.1
PR
OY
EK
SI
PE
ND
UD
UK
ME
NU
RU
T J
EN
IS K
ELA
MIN
DA
N K
ELO
MP
OK
UM
UR
TA
HU
N 2
01
0 -
20
20
KA
RIM
UN
LA
KI-
LAK
I
KE
LOM
PO
K U
MU
R
20
10
2
01
1
20
12
2
01
3
20
14
2
01
5
20
16
2
01
7
20
18
2
01
9
20
20
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10
) (1
1)
(12
)
0-
4
11
.37
2
11
.24
2
11
.08
9
10
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3
10
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9
10
.38
5
10
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3
9.7
40
9
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8
9.0
22
8
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9
12
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11
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11
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9
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6
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25
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1
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1
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1
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09
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3
http
://www.b
ps.g
o.id
22
Ta
be
l II
.1.2
PR
OY
EK
SI
PE
ND
UD
UK
ME
NU
RU
T J
EN
IS K
ELA
MIN
DA
N K
ELO
MP
OK
UM
UR
TA
HU
N 2
01
0 -
20
20
KA
RIM
UN
P
ER
EM
PU
AN
KE
LOM
PO
K U
MU
R
20
10
2
01
1
20
12
2
01
3
20
14
2
01
5
20
16
2
01
7
20
18
2
01
9
20
20
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10
) (1
1)
(12
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0-
4
10
.66
1
10
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1
10
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9
10
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8
10
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1
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9
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8
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8
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5
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9
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11
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4
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10
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11
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23
Ta
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.1.3
PR
OY
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SI
PE
ND
UD
UK
ME
NU
RU
T J
EN
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DA
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http
://www.b
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o.id
24
Ta
be
l II
.2.1
PR
OY
EK
SI
PE
ND
UD
UK
ME
NU
RU
T J
EN
IS K
ELA
MIN
DA
N K
ELO
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OK
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Ta
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l II
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PR
OY
EK
SI
PE
ND
UD
UK
ME
NU
RU
T J
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MIN
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Ta
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PR
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EK
SI
PE
ND
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UK
ME
NU
RU
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84
7
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1
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79
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10
JUM
LAH
1
43
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0
14
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57
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13
1
57
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7
15
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60
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1
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Ta
be
l II
.3.1
PR
OY
EK
SI
PE
ND
UD
UK
ME
NU
RU
T J
EN
IS K
ELA
MIN
DA
N K
ELO
MP
OK
UM
UR
TA
HU
N 2
01
0 -
20
20
NA
TU
NA
LA
KI-
LAK
I
KE
LOM
PO
K U
MU
R
20
10
2
01
1
20
12
2
01
3
20
14
2
01
5
20
16
2
01
7
20
18
2
01
9
20
20
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10
) (1
1)
(12
)
0-
4
4.1
21
4
.09
1
4.0
52
4
.01
3
3.9
49
3
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1
3.7
68
3
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8
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44
3
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6
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10
5-
9
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90
4
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1
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37
4
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36
4
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7
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04
4
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4
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6
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09
10
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3
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6
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4
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10
4
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7
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61
4
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4
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4
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4
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3
15
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3
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7
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84
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3
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7
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56
3
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4
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20
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3
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10
3
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3
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80
3
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82
3
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87
4
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86
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Ta
be
l II
.3.2
PR
OY
EK
SI
PE
ND
UD
UK
ME
NU
RU
T J
EN
IS K
ELA
MIN
DA
N K
ELO
MP
OK
UM
UR
TA
HU
N 2
01
0 -
20
20
NA
TU
NA
P
ER
EM
PU
AN
KE
LOM
PO
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MU
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20
10
2
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1
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12
2
01
3
20
14
2
01
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20
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2
01
7
20
18
2
01
9
20
20
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(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
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) (1
1)
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)
0-
4
4.0
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3
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1
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3
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84
3
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97
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Ta
be
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.3.3
PR
OY
EK
SI
PE
ND
UD
UK
ME
NU
RU
T J
EN
IS K
ELA
MIN
DA
N K
ELO
MP
OK
UM
UR
TA
HU
N 2
01
0 -
20
20
NA
TU
NA
LA
KI-
LAK
I +
PE
RE
MP
UA
N
KE
LOM
PO
K U
MU
R
20
10
2
01
1
20
12
2
01
3
20
14
2
01
5
20
16
2
01
7
20
18
2
01
9
20
20
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10
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1)
(12
)
0-
4
8.1
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8
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Ta
be
l II
.4.1
PR
OY
EK
SI
PE
ND
UD
UK
ME
NU
RU
T J
EN
IS K
ELA
MIN
DA
N K
ELO
MP
OK
UM
UR
TA
HU
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01
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20
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LIN
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KE
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1)
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4
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.4.2
PR
OY
EK
SI
PE
ND
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NU
RU
T J
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IS K
ELA
MIN
DA
N K
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ND
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MIN
DA
N K
ELO
MP
OK
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Ta
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EK
SI
PE
ND
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NU
RU
T J
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ELA
MIN
DA
N K
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Ta
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PE
ND
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UK
ME
NU
RU
T J
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IS K
ELA
MIN
DA
N K
ELO
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2
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03
http
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35
Ta
be
l II
.5.3
PR
OY
EK
SI
PE
ND
UD
UK
ME
NU
RU
T J
EN
IS K
ELA
MIN
DA
N K
ELO
MP
OK
UM
UR
TA
HU
N 2
01
0 -
20
20
KE
PU
LAU
AN
AN
AM
BA
S
LAK
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KI
+ P
ER
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PU
AN
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LOM
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20
10
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01
3
20
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01
7
20
18
2
01
9
20
20
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4
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o.id
36
Ta
be
l II
.6.1
PR
OY
EK
SI
PE
ND
UD
UK
ME
NU
RU
T J
EN
IS K
ELA
MIN
DA
N K
ELO
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37
Ta
be
l II
.6.2
PR
OY
EK
SI
PE
ND
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UK
ME
NU
RU
T J
EN
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MIN
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38
Ta
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l II
.6.3
PR
OY
EK
SI
PE
ND
UD
UK
ME
NU
RU
T J
EN
IS K
ELA
MIN
DA
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http
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39
Ta
be
l II
.7.1
PR
OY
EK
SI
PE
ND
UD
UK
ME
NU
RU
T J
EN
IS K
ELA
MIN
DA
N K
ELO
MP
OK
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40
Ta
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.7.2
PR
OY
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SI
PE
ND
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UK
ME
NU
RU
T J
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MIN
DA
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.7.3
PR
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EK
SI
PE
ND
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UK
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NU
RU
T J
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65
JUM
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2
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