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Talking ASEAN on Regional Preventive Diplomacy Jakarta, January 28, 2014 Peran ASEAN dalam mengelola ketegangan di wider Asia Pacific region by Dr. Makarim Wibisono

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Page 1: Jakarta, January 28, 2014 - THC ASEANadmin.thcasean.org/assets/uploads/file/2014/12/Makarim_Wibisono... · Jakarta, January 28, 2014 Peran ASEAN dalam mengelola ketegangan di wider

Talking ASEAN on Regional Preventive DiplomacyJakarta, January 28, 2014

Peran ASEAN dalam mengelola ketegangan di wider AsiaPacific region by Dr. Makarim Wibisono

Page 2: Jakarta, January 28, 2014 - THC ASEANadmin.thcasean.org/assets/uploads/file/2014/12/Makarim_Wibisono... · Jakarta, January 28, 2014 Peran ASEAN dalam mengelola ketegangan di wider

DIPLOMASI PREVENTIF REGIONAL

By: Dr. Makarim Wibisono

Diskusi Habibie Centre: Peran ASEAN dalam mengelolaketegangan di wider Asia Pacific region.

Jakarta, 28 Januari 2014

Page 3: Jakarta, January 28, 2014 - THC ASEANadmin.thcasean.org/assets/uploads/file/2014/12/Makarim_Wibisono... · Jakarta, January 28, 2014 Peran ASEAN dalam mengelola ketegangan di wider

1991: ASEAN and China laid astrong foundation of mutualunderstanding and friendship inthe framework of dialogue

To explore, examine and initiatepossible paths towardsstrengthening relations betweenthe two parties

a new chapter in history

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Shift from pattern of behavior ofcountries

Cold War period more interdependentworld during theglobalization era

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Political and security area:

Milestones

2003 - Chinaacceded to theTreaty ofAmity andCooperation

2004 –Cooperation inthe Field ofNon-TraditionalIssues

2009 - MOU forCooperation inNon-traditionalSecurity Issues(2010 -2014)

ASEAN andChina are nowimplementingthe AnnualPlan for 2010as part oftheir effort toexecute theMOU.

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Trade and economic area

2002 2004 2007 2009Framework

Agreement onComprehensive

EconomicCooperation to

establish theASEAN-China

Free Trade Area(ACFTA).

Agreement onAgreement onTrade in Goods

& DisputeSettlementMechanism

Agreement onTrade inServices (2007)

ASEAN-ChinaInvestmentAgreement(2009).

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China’s share of ASEAN trade1995: 4.2% 2008: 11.3%

China as ASEAN’s largest tradingpartner: 11.6% of ASEAN’s total trade

Trade (in billion)

59.6

196.9178.2

ASEAN’s trade with China2003 2008 2009

Trade (in billion)

2.11.5

FDI flows from China to ASEAN2008 2009

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The US assigned the Accession Document of TAC The increasing of US military presence in Southeast

Asia including the establishment of its base in Darwin. The frequent visits of US officials to Southeast Asia. US provide weapons, navy ships and aircrafts to

ASEAN member states. The US engagement on regional issues such as the

South China Sea.

THE US: Asia Pivot

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1. Cooperation

2. Competition

3. Confrontation

How to manage the increasing rivalryof major powers in SEA ?

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Security Community

Karl Deutsch (1957):Whenever they are integrated statescreate reassurances to not fight butwill instead find other ways to settledifferences between each other up toa point where they have a sense ofcommunity.

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ASEAN Political-Security Community

Objectives: to create a regional order that strengthens national

and regional resilience while promoting peace andsecurity based on shared norms and rules of goodconduct in the relations among states. community would be an open and outward-looking

community that will engage with ASEAN’s friends andDialogue Partners

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what is meant by security?

Conventional understanding: The defense of the sovereignty of states and the territorial integrity from

military aggression.

New understanding in the region: Security is dominated by the unconventional challenges of terrorism and

of rebuilding war-torn failed states.

Non-traditional security issues include trans-national organized crimes,pandemics, natural disasters, climate change, environmental issues,energy issues, people, illegal drugs, and goods smuggling acrossinternational borders.

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Security Arrangement in theAsia Pacific region

“ set of states whose major security perceptions andconcerns are so interlinked that their national securityproblems cannot reasonably be analyzed or resolved

apart from one another”(Buzan, Waever, de Wilde 1998)

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Three stages of analytical framework for asecurity community

• concerns the precipitating conditions as observed through the changes intechnology, demography, economics, the environment and the developmentof new interpretations of social reality that are conducive for states todevelop face-to-face interactions, dialogue, and policy coordination.

First stage

• ‘positive, dynamic, and reciprocal relationship between the structure of theregion, defined by material power and knowledge, and social processes, definedby organizations, transactions, and social learning.’

The second stage

• states share dynamic and positive relationships with each other becausestates have mutual trust and embrace a collective identity.

The third stage

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ASEAN Political-Security Community Plan ofAction (2004)

helps set the institutional backbone for the realization of the thirdphase of the emergence of a political-security community sets in stone ASEAN countries’ commitments to

nurture common socio-political values andprinciples which includes democratization, non-alignment, peace-oriented attitudes,renunciation of nuclear weapons and otherweapons of mass destruction and the avoidanceof an arms race, and the renunciation of the useof force or the threat of the use of force

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Future security community

Two major group of factors: First:

operates at the domestic sources of foreignpolicy level of analysis whereby thedemocratic deficit that prevails between whathas been negotiated by national governmentsat the regional level and what has been, infact, achieved at the national level have beenallowed to persist for too long

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These uncertainties areintricately interlinked withissues that may pit onepower against another,oftentimes generatingconflicting interests for thestates involved.

Future security community

Second: concerns uncertainties that constitute disturbances to

the system.

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If the balance of power between Pakistan and India ismisaligned, and the rapprochement between NorthKorea and South Korea does not occur ------- The problem of nuclear weapon proliferation

becomes imminent in Asia-Pacific. The possible rise of an assertive Japan in developing

its nuclear power capabilities

First possible disturbance

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The overlapping territorial claims in the South ChinaSeas by China and by Southeast Asian actors such asVietnam, the Philippines, Brunei Darussalam andMalaysia. The resulting scarcity of energy resources situation

that arises from a conflict in the South China Seas willhighlight the salience of these claims.

Second possible disturbance

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If the ruling regime in Taiwan cooperates withMainland China, the situation would not develop intoan unpredictably dangerous situation. However, should Nationalists take the Taiwanese

leadership and asserts for its independence fromChina, the situation will flare up and imminent dangerwill inevitably occur.

The Third Possible Disturbance

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Treaty of Amity and Cooperation(TAC): China, Russia, India, and theUnited States Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons

Free Zone (SEANWFZ), Zone ofPeace, Freedom, and Neutrality(ZOPFAN): countries of the Asia-Pacific East Asia Security Community or

Asia Pacific Security Community ?

Future security community

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1. Preference to peaceful settlement of disputes.2. Renunciation of using of force or threa to use of

force.3. Respecting Asian values: Emphasis on mutual respect Avoiding to embarass the counter part intentionally. Avoiding megaphone diplomacy

Necessary prerequisites

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New Fact of Life:

Global economic gravity from thewealthy America to Asia

ASEAN are not ready

• Southeast Asian region to anticipate thenew trends productively and equip itselfwith new knowledge, skills and capacityto interact with the new actors in order tolevel them with the situation.

• China to solidify its relation with ASEAN.• US to rebalance Asia equilibrium

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Jl. Raya Matraman no 148, PerkantoranMitra Matraman Blok A-2 No.7.

Jakarta TimurINDONESIA

Email: [email protected]