ekonomi, moneter dan keuangan · 2014-01-09 · t i n j a u a n k e b i j a k a n m o n e t er| 6...

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 0

Ekonomi, Moneter dan Keuangan


I.

TINJAUAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER

Januari 2014


IMF Consensus Forecast BI3,2 2.9 2.9 2.9

Amerika Serikat 2.8 1.6 1.7 1.6

-0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6

2.0 2.0 1.8 2.0

Negara Berkembang 4.9 4.5 5.0 4.7

Negara Berkembang Asia 6.4 6.3 6.6 -

China 7.7 7.6 7.7 7.5

India 3.2 3.8 4.6 4.3

ASEAN-5 6.2 5.0 - -

Sumber: WEO Okt 2013, Consensus Forecast Des 2013, BI

2013

Output Dunia

Eropa

Jepang

2012


Indeks Indeks

ITB (sk.kanan) Pendapatann Utilisasi Kapasitas Jam Kerja

Sumber: BPS


Belanja Modal Belanja Barang

Belanja Pegawai

Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan, diolah


Sumber: Bloomberg

eksp

an

si

kon

tra

ksi

Indeks

ISM Manufaktur ISM Jasa-jasa

Data: Des 2013

Sumber: BPS


Saham


Negara Berkembang

Negara Maju (Eropa)

Data: Des 2013

Sumber: Bloomberg

Rp/USD Harian

Rata2 Bulanan


5.40 5.405.30

5.60

5.80

5.50

5.20 5.105.205.30

5.205.205.30

5.20

5.10

5.40

5.60

5.90

6.907.00

7.30 7.30

7.20

7.10

5.20

5.20

5.10 5.10

5.00

5.20

5.80

6.10

6.406.40

6.30

6.20

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2012 2013

%,yoy

Ekspektasi Inflasi 2013

Ekspektasi Inflasi 2014

%,mtm Contribution (%, mtm)

Inflation

BERAS 0.59 0.03

TELUR AYAM RAS 3.95 0.03

CABE RAWIT 15.52 0.03

TOMAT SAYUR 17.33 0.03

BAYAM 5.61 0.01

MINYAK GORENG 1.08 0.01

TOMAT BUAH 13.32 0.01

DAGING SAPI 0.99 0.01

BAWANG MERAH 1.29 0.01

KEMBUNG/GEMBUNG 2.40 0.01

Deflation

CABE MERAH -6.80 -0.04

DAGING AYAM RAS -2.16 -0.03

JERUK -1.85 -0.01

CommoditiesDec-13


%,mtm Contribution (%, mtm)

Inflation

BAHAN BAKAR RUMAH TANGGA 2.58 0.07

ROKOK KRETEK 0.75 0.01

ROKOK KRETEK FILTER 0.38 0.01

TARIP KERETA API 7.62 0.01

BENSIN 0.16 0.01

CommoditiesDec-13


-

20

40

60

80

100

120

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13

Vol DF O/N (RHS) Vol PUAB O/N (RHS)

rBI Rate rPUAB O/N

rDF O/N

Rp T%

Avg Vol DF: Rp 108.1 TRRT Vol PUAB : Rp 10.2 T

rPUAB : 5.91%

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

O/N 1W 1M O/N 1W 1M

31-Dec-13

29-Nov-13

28-Dec-12

%, eop

PUAB JIBOR

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2008 2009 2011

2012 2013

Rp T


Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Ags Sep Okt Nov

BI Rate 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.25 7.25 7.50

Penjaminan Deposito 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.75 6.25 6.25 7.00 7.00 7.25

Dep 1 bulan (rata-rata tertimbang) 5.42 5.58 5.49 5.43 5.51 5.42 5.53 5.60 5.90 6.19 6.73* 7.10 7.28

Kredit Modal Kerja (KMK) 11.61 11.49 11.49 11.45 11.44 11.44 11.46 11.41 11.66 11.63 11.79 11.93 12.06

Kredit Investasi (KI) 11.24 11.27 11.29 11.27 11.24 11.21 11.17 11.14 11.29 11.37 11.49 11.65 11.73

Kredit Konsumsi (KK) 13.53 13.58 13.40 13.22 13.28 13.22 13.20 13.14 13.06 13.05 13.03 13.08 13.12

2013Suku Bunga (%)

2012

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

5

7

9

11

13

15

Jan

-05

Jul-

05

Jan

-06

Jul-

06

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Spread-rhs Sb Kredit Sb Dep 1 bln BI rate Sb LPS

%

Selisih rKredit - rDepo1: 506bps

%

7.28

12.34


5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

-10

-3

4

11

18

25

32

39

Jan

-08

Ma

r-0

8M

ay

-08

Jul-

08

Se

p-0

8N

ov

-08

Jan

-09

Ma

r-0

9M

ay

-09

Jul-

09

Se

p-0

9N

ov

-09

Jan

-10

Ma

r-1

0M

ay

-10

Jul-

10

Se

p-1

0N

ov

-10

Jan

-11

Ma

r-1

1M

ay

-11

Jul-

11

Se

p-1

1N

ov

-11

Jan

-12

Ma

r-1

2M

ay

-12

Jul-

12

Se

p-1

2N

ov

-12

Jan

-13

Ma

r-1

3M

ay

-13

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3N

ov-1

3

Total KMK KI KK BI Rate (RHS)

% yoy %

per Nov 2013


Indikator

Utama Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Juni Juli Agt Sep Okt Nov

Total Aset (T Rp) 4,103.5 4,262.6 4,211.0 4,237.1 4,313.8 4,367.8 4,418.7 4,461.8 4,510.3 4,581.1 4,737.3 4,717.0 4,817.8

DPK (T Rp) 3,130.5 3,225.2 3,204.5 3,207.3 3,243.1 3,299.4 3,349.7 3,374.4 3,392.9 3,440.2 3,526.2 3,520.9 3,563.4

Kredit * (T Rp) 2,631.0 2,707.9 2,688.1 2,718.7 2,768.4 2,824.2 2,887.5 2,959.1 3,021.1 3,067.4 3,170.8 3,182.9 3,214.4

LDR* (%) 84.0 84.0 83.9 84.8 85.4 85.6 86.2 87.7 89.0 89.2 89.3 89.7 90.2

NPLs Gross* (%) 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9

CAR (%) 17.4 17.4 19.2 19.2 18.9 18.6 18.4 18.0 18.0 17.9 18.0 18.4 18.6

NIM (%) 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5

ROA (%) 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 * tanpa channeling

20132012


Rp triliun

2009 2010 2011

Total Total Total Tw I Tw II Tw III Tw IV Total Tw I Tw II Tw III Okt Nov Des Total

Non Bank 47.5 123.5 120 13.6 47.3 10.8 37.2 108.9 16.9 53.3 3.1 2.5 5.5 6.4 87.7

Saham 12.4 78 62.8 2.4 5.6 1.8 11.2 21 3.4 24.3 2.3 0.1 0 2.2 32.3

o/w Emiten Sektor Keuangan 6.6 20.6 20.4 0 2.3 0.7 0 3.1 0.3 4.4 0.7 0 0 0 5.3

Obligasi 25.8 34.7 51.3 9.6 41 7.1 20.1 77.7 12.7 27.7 0.3 2.1 4.5 3.3 50.5

o/w Emiten Sektor Keuangan 17.5 27 41.4 8.3 26.2 4.8 14.4 53.7 9.9 13.5 0 2.1 3.3 2.1 30.8

MTN dan Promissory Notes 3.9 10.8 5.9 1.6 0.8 1.9 5.9 10.1 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.3 1 0.8 4.9

o/w Emiten Sektor Keuangan 3.2 1.9 1.3 0.1 0.6 0.1 2.1 0.7 1.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 3.2

20132012

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

p

Oct

No

v

De

c

2013

IPO

Rp T

02468

1012141618

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2013

Obligasi Korporasi

Rp T


Grafik 2.37

Pertumbuhan Likuiditas Perekonomian

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan-11Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12Jan-13Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13

M2 M1 MB BI Rate (RHS)

%, yoy %


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Jan

-07

Jun

-07

No

v-0

7A

pr-

08

Se

p-0

8F

eb

-09

Jul-

09

De

c-0

9M

ay-1

0O

ct-

10

Ma

r-1

1

Au

g-1

1Ja

n-1

2Ju

n-1

2

No

v-1

2A

pr-

13

Se

p-1

3

JCI BI RATE (RHS)%

Properti

Pertanian

Perdagangan

Konsumsi

Aneka Industri

Industri Dasar

Keuangan

Pertambangan

Infrastruktur

IHSG


-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Net Beli/Jual (RHS) IHSG

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Jan

08

Ma

r 0

8M

ei

08

Jul

08

Se

p 0

8N

op

08

Jan

09

Ma

r 0

9M

ei

09

Jul

09

Se

p 0

9N

op

09

Jan

10

Ma

r 1

0M

ei

10

Jul

10

Se

p 1

0N

op

10

Jan

11

Ma

r 1

1M

ei

11

Jul

11

Se

p 1

1N

op

11

Jan

12

Ma

r 1

2M

ei

12

Jul

12

Se

p 1

2N

op

12

Jan

13

Ma

r 1

3M

ei

13

Jul

13

Se

p 1

3N

op

13

Yield SUN 10 Tahun

CDS (RHS)

%%


1,0

3,0

5,0

7,0

9,0

11,0

13,0

15,0

(35)

(25)

(15)

(5)

5

15

25

Ja

nF

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJu

ne

Ju

lyA

ug

ust

Se

pt

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

nF

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Me

iJu

ni

Ju

liA

gu

st

Se

pt

Ok

tN

ov

De

cJa

nF

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Me

iJu

ni

Ju

liA

gu

st

Se

pt

Ok

tN

ov

De

c

2011 2012 2013

Net Foreign Buy/Sell Yield SUN (RHS)

%Rp. Trillion


Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Juni Juli Agt Sep Okt Nov Des

SUKU BUNGA & SAHAM

Suku bunga SBI 9 bln 1) 4.80 4.84 4.86 4.87 4.89 5.02 5.28 5.52 5.86 6.96 6.97 6.96 -

Suku bunga deposito 1 bln 2) 5.58 5.49 5.43 5.51 5.42 5.53 5.60 5.90 6.19 6.73 7.10 7.28 -

Suku bunga deposito 3 bln 2) 5.76 5.89 5.92 5.64 5.73 5.68 5.72 5.99 6.16 6.58 6.95 7.30 -

JIBOR satu minggu 2) 4.32 4.30 4.28 4.28 4.28 4.27 4.46 4.93 5.32 5.89 6.09 5.89 -

IHSG Indeks 3) 4,317 4,454 4,796 4,941 5,034 5,069 4,819 4,610 4,195 4,316 4,511 4,256 4,274

BESARAN MONETER (miliar Rp)

Uang Primer 704,843 664,007 655,486 664,935 667,122 681,508 691,678 750,446 713,448 715,662 734,266 750,592 -

M1(C+D) 841,721 787,916 786,606 810,112 832,273 822,930 858,557 879,986 855,783 864,637 856,146 866,718 -

Uang Kartal (C) 361,967 326,885 321,541 331,226 324,393 334,087 347,204 383,932 359,417 357,001 363,772 372,086 -

Uang giral (D) 479,755 461,031 465,065 478,886 507,880 488,843 511,353 496,054 496,365 507,636 492,374 494,632 -

Uang Beredar Luas (M2 = C+D+T+S) 3,305,744 3,268,845 3,280,478 3,322,586 3,360,987 3,426,359 3,413,437 3,506,574 3,502,420 3,580,934 3,576,730 3,610,668 -

Uang kuasi (T) 2,453,602 2,470,101 2,483,011 2,500,342 2,515,813 2,588,094 2,543,285 2,608,175 2,625,946 2,691,903 2,697,619 2,719,258 -

Surat Berharga Selain Saham (S) 10,420 10,829 10,861 12,132 12,902 15,335 11,594 18,413 20,691 24,394 22,965 24,692 -

Tagihan pada Dunia Usaha - -

Kredit-Bank Umum - -

Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Uang Beredar 3,307,577 3,268,845 3,280,478 3,322,586 3,360,987 3,426,359 3,413,437 3,506,574 3,502,420 3,584,017 3,576,758 3,614,408 -

Aktiva Luar Negeri Bersih 965,442 960,233 937,714 947,362 940,165 935,590 833,821 849,697 879,470 972,110 955,881 987,760 -

Aktiva Dalam Negeri Bersih 2,342,135 2,308,612 2,342,764 2,375,225 2,420,822 2,490,768 2,579,616 2,656,876 2,622,950 2,611,907 2,620,877 2,626,648 -

Tagihan Bersih kepada Pemerintah Pusat 389,827 378,366 361,337 366,902 341,302 322,822 330,871 377,080 340,332 342,434 337,226 353,434 -

Tagihan Kepada Sektor Lainnya 2,917,452 2,894,235 2,924,875 2,973,874 3,028,028 3,109,337 3,180,790 3,235,593 3,285,901 3,382,424 3,387,310 3,454,194 -

PERTUMBUHAN BESARAN MONETER (%,YOY)

Uang Primer 14.89 11.77 13.22 13.46 11.82 12.65 10.25 18.18 8.43 12.02 13.29 15.84 -

M1(C+D) 16.42 13.15 15.13 13.42 15.45 9.80 10.15 14.02 10.79 8.69 10.47 8.15 -

Uang Kartal (C) 17.61 14.20 14.79 15.39 11.53 13.34 10.34 21.74 9.89 9.66 11.55 13.76 -

Uang giral (D) 15.54 12.42 15.36 12.10 18.09 7.51 10.03 8.68 11.45 8.02 9.69 4.28 -

Uang Beredar Luas (M2 = C+D+T+S) 14.89 14.50 15.11 14.10 14.82 14.52 11.87 14.76 13.35 14.53 13.09 12.62 -

Uang kuasi (T) 14.66 15.14 15.45 14.54 14.83 16.19 12.77 14.86 13.90 16.05 13.48 13.57 -

Surat Berharga Selain Saham (S) -27.58 -19.24 -30.98 -17.86 -16.49 1.68 -30.20 42.38 70.89 112.91 115.83 137.28 -

Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Uang Beredar 14.96 14.41 15.02 14.01 14.72 14.42 11.81 14.69 13.29 14.57 13.03 12.67 -

Aktiva Luar Negeri Bersih 5.84 2.80 -0.47 2.29 -2.41 -3.66 -9.91 -9.25 -7.98 -0.36 -3.49 -0.14 -

Aktiva Dalam Negeri Bersih 19.19 20.05 22.66 19.47 23.12 23.10 21.26 25.26 22.80 21.34 20.55 18.38 -

Tagihan Bersih kepada Pemerintah Pusat 11.01 17.43 22.02 23.49 40.38 34.48 16.37 35.13 25.40 14.57 18.00 12.80 -

Tagihan Kepada Sektor Lainnya 22.39 21.82 21.64 20.61 20.10 20.13 20.03 21.42 22.01 22.79 21.50 22.05 -

Inflasi bulanan (%, mtm) 0.54 1.03 0.75 0.63 -0.10 -0.03 1.03 3.29 1.12 -0.35 0.09 0.12 0.55

Inflasi tahunan (%, yoy) 4.30 4.57 5.31 5.90 5.57 5.47 5.90 8.61 8.79 8.40 8.32 8.37 8.38

Rp/USD (akhir periode, nilai tengah) 9,670 9,698 9,664 9,718 9,723 9,795 9,925 10,278 10,920 11,580 11,273 11,963 12,170

Ekspor Barang Non migas (f.o.b, juta USD) 4) 12,313 12,386 11,897 12,727 12,480 13,308 11,970 12,874 10,487 12,248 13,143 13,136 -

Impor Barang Non migas (c & f, juta USD) 4) 11,715 11,660 11,463 10,971 12,813 13,234 12,029 13,327 9,423 11,811 12,320 11,179 -

Pertumbuhan PDB (%, yoy) 6.1 5.8 5.6 5.5

Konsumsi 4.7 4.7 5.9 6.1

Investasi (PMTB) 5.5 4.5 4.5 4.6

Perubahan Stok 16.5 -0.6 -18.7

Ekspor 3.6 4.8 5.3 6.0

Impor 0.0 0.5 3.8 5.3

1) minggu terakhir

2) rata-rata tertimbang

3) penutupan pada akhir periode

4) closed file

Sumber : Bank Indonesia, kecuali data pasar modal (BAPEPAM), IHK, ekspor/impor dan PDB dari BPS

Tw.IV*Tw.II

2012

Tw.IV

2012

Tw.I

2013

Tw.III

2013

H A R G A

SEKTOR EKSTERNAL

INDIKATOR KUARTALAN

SEKTOR KEUANGAN

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.bi.go.id/

ekonomi, moneter dan keuangan · 2014-01-09 · t i n j a u a n k e b i j a k a n m o n e t er| 6...

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