Download - Perkembangan Ekonomi 5 April 2013
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PERKEMBANGAN EKONOMISAMPAI DENGAN 5 APRIL 2013
BAMBANG PRIJAMBODO
STAF AHLI MENTERI NEGARA PERENCANAAN PEMBANGUNAN NASIONAL
BIDANG EKONOMI DAN PEMBIAYAAN PEMBANGUNAN
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PERKEMBANGAN TERAKHIR EKONOMI DUNIA
2
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Beberapa Kawasan Dunia
Ekonomi AS, Jepang, Eropa, dan Cina
Perdagangan Dunia
Defisit Anggaran dan Stok Utang Pemerintah
Geo Ekonomi Dunia
40 Negara Terbesar: Produk Domestik Bruto
120 Negara Terbesar: Produk Domestik Bruto per Kapita
Nilai Tukar Mata Uang
Cadangan Devisa
Long Term Bond Yield dan Credit Default Swap: Asia dan Eropa
Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia
Produksi, Konsumsi, dan Stok Minyak Mentah Dunia
Produksi dan Spare Capacity Minyak Mentah dan Bahan Bakar Cair OPEC
Harga Komoditi Primer
Inflasi Global
Indeks Saham Global
World Economic Outlook 2013 - 2014
Poll of Forecaster (the Economist) Terbaru
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PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI
PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO(% perubahan, y-o-y)
20122011201220112010200920082007200620052004NegaraTw 4Tw 3Tw 2Tw 1Tw 4Tw 3Tw 2
1,62,62,12,42,01,61,92,21,82,4-3,1-0,31,92,73,13,5 Amerika Serikat1,11,52,72,02,42,92,01,82,63,2-2,81,12,52,93,03,1 Kanada0,50,43,93,4-0,3-0,5-1,62,0-0,64,7-5,5-1,02,11,71,32,4 Jepang0,30,2-0,20,30,70,50,40,20,91,3-4,80,73,02,82,12,8 Inggris0,40,91,01,21,92,73,00,93,13,5-5,01,32,63,00,81,2 Jerman
-0,30,00,10,21,11,51,70,01,71,4-2,20,82,12,41,92,2 Perancis-0,9-1,2-0,4-1,0-0,80,91,4-0,91,01,6-4,02,03,63,42,02,2 Belanda-2,7-2,4-2,3-1,3-0,50,41,0-2,20,61,8-5,0-1,01,52,10,81,4 Itali-1,9-1,6-1,4-0,70,00,60,5-1,40,4-0,3-3,70,93,64,03,63,3 Spanyol1,11,82,33,54,24,04,72,04,43,91,65,16,86,23,65,3 Polandia
-3,8-3,5-3,1-2,3-3,1-1,8-0,9-3,2-1,61,9-2,90,01,91,40,91,5 Portugal-6,0-6,7-6,4-6,7-7,9-4,0-7,9-6,5-7,2-4,9-2,42,04,54,52,24,6 Yunani-2,8-1,7-1,3-1,21,21,31,9-1,81,71,2-6,30,61,04,03,54,9 Hongaria
0,80,11,72,81,02,9 1,4-0,8-5,5-2,15,45,36,04,6 Irlandia0,1-0,31,30,82,33,21,40,52,1-1,2-7,17,36,37,94,28,5 Romania
-0,9-0,6-0,5-0,10,61,31,6-0,51,42,0-4,40,43,03,21,72,2 Zona Eropa (17)3,13,13,74,42,72,92,43,62,42,61,32,14,02,82,83,8 Australia
1,62,53,03,32,60,31,41,2-2,1-0,12,81,03,34,5 Selandia Baru7,97,47,68,18,99,19,57,89,310,48,79,013,011,610,410,1 Cina4,55,35,55,36,16,78,05,27,58,96,46,210,09,59,07,6 India1,51,52,32,83,33,63,52,03,66,30,32,35,15,24,04,6 Korea Selatan3,41,0-0,10,61,23,54,61,34,110,8-1,80,76,05,44,76,2 Taiwan1,50,02,31,53,66,01,21,34,914,8-0,81,17,88,47,39,3 Singapura2,51,41,00,83,04,05,11,44,96,8-2,52,16,57,07,48,7 Hong Kong6,16,26,46,36,56,56,56,26,56,24,66,06,35,55,75,0 Indonesia6,45,25,65,15,25,74,35,65,17,2-1,64,86,25,85,36,8 Malaysia
18,93,14,40,4-8,93,72,76,40,17,8-2,32,54,95,24,66,3 Thailand6,97,15,96,34,03,23,66,63,97,61,14,26,65,24,86,7 Filipina
2,94,04,94,84,83,44,34,3-7,85,28,58,26,47,2 Rusia1,41,62,93,35,38,79,32,28,89,0-4,80,74,76,98,49,4 Turki1,40,90,50,81,42,13,30,92,77,5-0,35,26,14,03,25,7 Brasil3,23,24,54,93,94,42,93,93,95,5-6,31,23,25,13,24,0 Meksiko2,52,33,12,43,43,23,62,53,53,1-1,53,65,55,65,33,3 Afrika Selatan
Sumber: Badan Statistik Negara Bersangkutan
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PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI BEBERAPA KAWASAN DUNIA (TRIWULANAN)
4
-2
0
2
4
6
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
AS Jepang EA (17)
PDB: AS, JEPANG, EA(17)
Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
Australia Selandia Baru Kanada
PDB: KANADA, AUSTRALIA, NZ
Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012
0
2
4
6
8
10
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
Brasil Meksiko Rusia
PDB: RUSIA, BRASIL, MEKSIKO
Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
S
e
l
a
i
n
Y
u
n
a
n
i
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
Y
u
n
a
n
i
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
Inggris Jerman Perancis Itali Spanyol Belanda
Yunani Portugal Irlandia Hongaria Polandia
PDB: KAWASAN EROPA (17)
Triwulan I/2011 - IV/2012
-
53
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
S
e
l
a
i
n
T
h
a
i
l
a
n
d
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
-11
-7
-3
1
5
9
13
17
21
T
h
a
i
l
a
n
d
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Filipina
PDB: ASIA TENGGARA
Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012
7
8
9
10
11
12
C
i
n
a
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
4,0
5,6
7,2
8,8
10,4
12,0
I
n
d
i
a
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
Cina India
PDB: CINA DAN INDIA
Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012
-5
0
5
10
15
20
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
Korsel S'pura Taiwan HongKong
PDB: NEGARA INDUSTRI ASIA
Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012
2,0
2,4
2,8
3,2
3,6
4,0
A
f
s
e
l
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
0,0
2,8
5,6
8,4
11,2
14,0
T
u
r
k
i
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
Afsel Turki
PDB: AFRIKA SELATAN DAN TURKI
Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012
-
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI BEBERAPA KAWASAN DUNIA (TAHUNAN)
-5
0
5
10
15
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Korsel Taiwan S'pura HongKong
PDB: NEGARA INDUSTRI BARU ASIA
Tahun 2000 - 2012
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
AS EA(17) Jepang
PDB: AS, JEPANG, EA(17)
Tahun 2000 - 2012
-10
-5
0
5
10
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Inggris Jerman Perancis Itali Spanyol
Belanda Yunani Portugal Irlandia Hongaria
PDB: KAWASAN EROPA (17)
Tahun 2000 - 2012
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Kanada Australia Selandia Baru
PDB: KANADA, AUSTRALIA, SELANDIA BARU
Tahun 2000 - 2012
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
C
i
n
a
,
I
n
d
i
a
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
-8
-5
-2
1
4
7
10
R
u
s
i
a
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Cina India Rusia
PDB: CINA, INDIA, RUSIA
Tahun 2000 - 2012
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Filipina
PDB: ASIA TENGGARA
Tahun 2000 - 2012
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Brasil Meksiko
PDB: BRASIL DAN MEKSIKO
Tahun 2000 - 2012
0
2
4
6
8
10
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Vietnam Meksiko
PDB: VIETNAM DAN PAKISTAN
Tahun 2000 - 2012
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Afsel Turki
PDB: AFRIKA SELATAN DAN TURKI
Tahun 2000 - 2012
-
7EKONOMI AMERIKA SERIKAT
-10
-3
4
11
18
25
C
p
,
G
,
I
p
,
I
p
(
R
e
s
)
,
X
,
M
(
y
-
o
-
y
)
1,0
1,4
1,8
2,2
2,6
3,0
P
D
B
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
1,9
2,5
2,8
2,4
1,81,9
1,6
2
2,4
2,1
2,6
PDB
Ip (Res)
Cp
X
M
Ip
Ig+Cg
PERTUMBUHAN PDB AMERIKA SERIKAT
Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012
-1,0
0,2
1,4
2,6
3,8
5,0
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
q
-
t
-
q
a
n
n
u
a
l
r
a
t
e
)
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
2,3 2,22,6 2,4
0,1
2,5
1,3
4,1
2,0
1,3
3,1
0,1
q-t-q at annual rate y-o-y
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI AMERIKA SERIKAT
Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012
11000
11700
12400
13100
13800
14500
#
(
0
0
0
o
r
a
n
g
)
7,6
7,9
8,2
8,5
8,8
9,1
P
e
r
s
e
n
t
a
s
e
(
%
)
Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
# Pengangguran Persentase
PENGANGGURAN AMERIKA SERIKAT
Juli 2011 - Maret 2013
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
P
M
I
(
I
n
d
e
k
s
)
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
R
e
t
a
i
l
S
a
l
e
s
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
,
y
o
-
y
)
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
PMI Retail Sales
PMI DAN RETAIL SALES: AMERIKA SERIKAT
Januari 2011 - Maret 2013
-
8US REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTPercent Change From Quarter One Year Ago (y-o-y)
2012:42012:32012:22012:12011:42011:32011:220122011201020092008200720062005
1,62,62,12,42,01,61,92,21,82,4-3,1-0,31,92,73,1Gross Domestic Product (GDP)1,91,91,91,81,92,52,71,92,51,8-1,9-0,62,32,93,4Personal consumption expenditures 3,23,52,92,62,83,44,03,13,83,6-3,0-2,53,03,34,2 Goods8,48,47,56,95,96,26,77,87,26,2-5,4-4,95,04,55,9 Durable goods0,91,30,90,71,42,12,70,92,32,3-1,8-1,21,92,63,2 Nondurable goods1,21,11,41,31,52,02,01,31,91,0-1,40,41,92,63,0 Services2,911,110,914,110,91,53,99,65,213,7-24,8-10,2-3,22,75,5Gross private domestic investment6,56,29,911,99,08,44,38,56,6-0,2-19,0-7,1-1,92,46,5 Fixed investment4,64,69,712,510,210,17,47,78,60,7-18,1-0,86,58,06,7 Nonresidential4,76,111,219,76,96,40,910,12,7-15,6-21,16,414,19,21,4 Structures4,64,09,210,011,411,510,06,911,08,9-16,4-4,33,37,68,5 Equipment and software
14,913,610,49,33,91,4-7,112,1-1,4-3,7-22,4-23,9-18,7-7,36,2 Residential................................... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Change in private inventories ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....Net exports of goods and services1,83,24,34,04,36,57,43,36,711,1-9,16,19,39,06,7 Exports1,54,55,85,05,46,77,44,27,214,3-12,06,39,79,47,5 Goods2,60,20,71,71,86,17,31,35,64,7-2,65,68,37,95,0 Services0,12,53,93,23,52,24,42,44,812,5-13,5-2,72,46,16,1 Imports
-0,22,43,52,63,42,14,82,15,214,9-15,6-3,82,65,96,8 Goods1,73,05,76,23,82,92,74,12,82,5-3,33,61,47,12,8 Services
-1,7-0,5-2,2-2,2-3,3-3,8-3,2-1,7-3,10,63,72,61,31,40,3Gov't consumption and gross inv-2,80,0-3,3-2,6-4,2-4,1-2,2-2,2-2,84,56,17,21,22,11,3 Federal-4,9-1,6-4,0-2,0-4,0-2,8-1,7-3,1-2,63,06,07,52,21,61,5 National defense1,53,6-2,0-3,8-4,6-6,9-3,1-0,3-3,17,76,56,5-0,83,20,9 Nondefense
-1,0-0,9-1,5-2,0-2,7-3,6-3,8-1,4-3,4-1,82,20,01,40,9-0,2 State and local0,13,11,32,04,11,32,5GDP Growth (q-t-q, seasonally adjusted at annual rate)0,00,80,30,51,00,30,6GDP Growth (q-t-q, seasonally adjusted)
Sumber: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce; Second Estimate, 28 February 2013
-
2000
6000
10000
14000
18000
22000
T
o
t
a
l
U
t
a
n
g
(
U
S
D
M
i
l
i
a
r
)
50
62
74
86
98
110
P
e
r
s
e
n
t
a
s
e
(
%
P
D
B
A
S
)
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014*)
Utang % PDB AS
TOTAL UTANG PEMERINTAH AMERIKA SERIKAT
Thn 1990-2011, '12-17 (proyeksi OMB)
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
D
e
f
i
s
i
t
A
n
g
g
a
r
a
n
,
C
A
(
%
P
D
B
A
S
)
0
24
48
72
96
120
U
t
a
n
g
P
e
m
.
F
e
d
e
r
a
l
A
S
(
%
P
D
B
A
S
)
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014*)
Defisit Budget Trans Berjalan Utang Pem AS
TRANSAKSI BERJALAN, BUDGET, UTANG AS
Thn 1990 - 2011, '12-17 (proyeksi OMB)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
P
e
n
e
r
i
m
a
a
n
,
P
e
n
g
e
l
u
a
r
a
n
(
U
S
D
M
i
l
i
a
r
)
-12
-8
-4
0
4
D
e
f
i
s
i
t
(
%
P
D
B
)
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Penerimaan Pengeluaran Defisit
AMERIKA SERIKAT: APBN
Tahun 1996 - 2012
0
50
100
150
200
250
#
(
0
0
0
o
r
a
n
g
)
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
NON FARM PAYROLL
Januari 2011 - Februari 2013
400
515
630
745
860
975
R
i
b
u
-20
-6
8
22
36
50
K
e
n
a
i
k
a
n
(
%
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Building Permits Kenaikan
US HOUSING STARTED
Januari 2011 - Januari 2013
400
510
620
730
840
950
R
i
b
u
-20
-6
8
22
36
50
K
e
n
a
i
k
a
n
(
%
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Building Permits Kenaikan
US BUILDING PERMITS
Januari 2011 - Januari 2013
-140
-128
-116
-104
-92
-80
T
r
a
n
s
a
k
s
i
B
e
r
j
a
l
a
n
(
U
S
D
M
i
l
i
a
r
)
-1000
-640
-280
80
440
800
E
k
s
p
o
r
,
I
m
p
o
r
,
T
r
a
n
s
f
e
r
(
U
S
D
M
i
l
i
a
r
)
2009:1 2010:1 2011:1 2012:1
-95,3
-82,8
-97,9-100,6
-111,0-111,7-114,6
-104,7
-120,0-119,1
-108,2
-118,7
-133,8
-118,4
-112,4-110,4
Trans Berjln Ekspor Brg Js Impor Brg Js Transfer
NERACA TRANSAKSI BERJALAN AS
Triwulan I/2009 - IV/2012
42
51
60
69
78
87
I
n
d
e
k
s
-20
-8
4
16
28
40
K
e
n
a
i
k
a
n
(
%
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Indeks Kenaikan
KEYAKINAN KONSUMEN AMERIKA SERIKAT
Reuter/Michigan Index, Jan 11 - Mar 13
1,20
1,26
1,32
1,38
1,44
1,50
U
S
D
/
E
u
r
o
0,0
0,8
1,6
2,4
3,2
4,0
I
n
f
l
a
s
i
(
%
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
,
F
e
d
F
u
n
d
s
R
a
t
e
(
%
)
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Kurs Fed Funds Inflasi (y-o-y)
KURS USD, INFLASI, DAN FED FUNDS RATE
Januari 2011 - Maret 2013
-
EKONOMI JEPANG
10
-2,5
-1,6
-0,7
0,2
1,1
2,0
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
q
-
t
-
q
)
-2,0
-0,4
1,2
2,8
4,4
6,0
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
1,51,0
1,4
-0,4
-1,8
-0,9
2,5
0,1
1,5
-0,2
-0,9
0,0
q-t-q y-o-y
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI: JEPANG
Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012
-2
0
2
4
6
P
D
B
,
C
(
p
r
i
v
)
,
C
(
H
o
u
s
e
h
o
l
d
)
-20
-5
10
25
40
I
(
r
e
s
)
,
I
(
n
o
n
-
r
e
s
)
,
C
g
,
I
g
,
X
,
M
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
Ip (Res)
GDP
C(Private)
C(Household)
Ip (Non-Res)
Cg
Ig
X
M
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI JEPANG
Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012 (y-o-y)
JAPAN REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTPercent Change From Quarter One Year Ago (y-o-y)
2012:42012:32012:22012:12011:42011:32011:220122011201020092008200720062005
0,50,43,93,4-0,3-0,5-1,62,0-0,64,7-5,5-1,02,21,71,3GDP (expenditure approach)1,11,33,14,01,20,50,52,40,52,8-0,7-0,90,91,11,5Private Consumption1,11,23,13,81,10,30,32,20,32,7-0,8-0,91,01,11,5Consumption of Households1,01,23,44,41,20,30,22,50,23,0-1,2-1,40,90,91,4Excluding Imputed Rent5,71,44,6-0,13,38,23,52,95,5-4,5-16,6-6,6-9,80,6-0,9Private Residential Investment
-7,01,57,36,99,9-0,2-0,52,13,30,3-14,3-2,64,94,05,7Private Non-Residential Investment---------------------------------------------Private Inventory
3,02,62,62,41,01,21,32,71,51,92,3-0,11,10,00,8Government Consumption19,615,111,35,0-7,5-4,7-2,212,5-7,50,77,0-7,4-5,9-5,1-10,1Public Investment
---------------------------------------------Public Inventory---------------------------------------------Goods and Services
-5,7-4,89,20,9-2,60,8-5,5-0,3-0,424,4-24,21,48,79,96,2 Exports0,75,19,16,75,75,13,65,35,911,1-15,70,32,34,54,2 Imports0,2-3,7-0,96,10,410,6-3,4GDP Growth (q-t-q, seasonally adjusted at annual rate)0,0-0,9-0,21,50,12,5-0,9GDP Growth (q-t-q, seasonally adjusted)
Source: Cabinet Office, Government of Japan; 2nd Preliminary, 8 March 2013
-
11
200
360
520
680
840
1000
U
t
a
n
g
(
Y
e
n
T
r
i
l
i
u
n
)
60
90
120
150
180
210
%
P
D
B
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Utang Rasio PDB
UTANG PEMERINTAH JEPANG
Tahun 1996 - 2012
31
34
37
40
43
46
I
n
d
e
k
s
-30
-18
-6
6
18
30
K
e
n
a
i
k
a
n
(
%
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Indeks Kenaikan
INDEKS KEYAKINAN KONSUMEN JEPANG
Januari 2011- Februari 2013
83
86
89
92
95
98
I
n
d
e
k
s
-6
-2
2
6
10
14
K
e
n
a
i
k
a
n
(
%
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Indeks Kenaikan
INDEKS KEYAKINAN BISNIS JEPANG
Januari 2011 - Januari 2013
240
256
272
288
304
320
#
(
p
u
l
u
h
r
i
b
u
o
r
g
)
4,0
4,2
4,4
4,6
4,8
5,0
P
e
r
s
e
n
t
a
s
e
(
%
)
Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
# Pengangguran Persentase
PENGANGGURAN JEPANG
Juli 2011 - Fabruari 2013
-
EKONOMI KAWASAN EROPA
12
-1,0
-0,6
-0,2
0,2
0,6
1,0
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
q
-
t
-
q
)
-1,0
-0,3
0,4
1,1
1,8
2,5
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
0,4
1,0
0,40,3
0,8
0,1 0,1
-0,4
0,0
-0,2-0,1
-0,6
q-t-q y-o-y
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI KAWASAN EROPA (17)
Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012
-1,0
-0,3
0,4
1,1
1,8
2,5
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
q
-
t
-
q
)
0
1
2
3
4
5
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
0,5
2,1
0,80,5
1,2
0,5 0,4
-0,1
0,50,3 0,2
-0,6
q-t-q y-o-y
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI JERMAN
Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012
-0,40
-0,12
0,16
0,44
0,72
1,00
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
q
-
t
-
q
)
-0,5
0,1
0,7
1,3
1,9
2,5
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
0,3
0,50,4
0,3
0,9
0,0
0,3
0,0
-0,1-0,1
0,1
-0,3
q-t-q y-o-y
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI PERANCIS
Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
q
-
t
-
q
)
-1,0
-0,3
0,4
1,1
1,8
2,5
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
0,3
1,1
0,6
-0,5
0,3
-0,1
0,6
-0,4
-0,1
-0,4
1,0
-0,3
q-t-q y-o-y
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INGGRIS
Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012
-
13
-1,0
-0,6
-0,2
0,2
0,6
1,0
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
q
-
t
-
q
)
-3,0
-1,8
-0,6
0,6
1,8
3,0
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
1,0
0,60,4
0,20,1
0,3
-0,1
-0,7-0,8
-0,7
-0,2
q-t-q y-o-y
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI ITALI
Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012
-1,5
-0,9
-0,3
0,3
0,9
1,5
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
q
-
t
-
q
)
-2,0
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
0,4
1,1
0,0
0,6 0,5
-0,1-0,2
-0,6
0,1 0,2
-1,0
-0,2
q-t-q y-o-y
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI BELANDA
Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012
-2,0
-1,4
-0,8
-0,2
0,4
1,0
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
q
-
t
-
q
)
-4
-2,8
-1,6
-0,4
0,8
2
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
0,9
0,3 0,2
-0,3
-0,9
-0,1
-0,5
-1,6
-0,1
-1,0-0,9
-1,8
q-t-q y-o-y
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI PORTUGAL
Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
q
-
t
-
q
)
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
0,10,2
-0,1
0,1
0,30,2
0,0
-0,5-0,4 -0,4
-0,3
-0,8
q-t-q y-o-y
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI: SPANYOL
Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012
-
14
-1,5
-0,8
-0,1
0,6
1,3
2
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
q
-
t
-
q
)
-3,0
-1,8
-0,6
0,6
1,8
3,0
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
1,0
0,30,5
-1,4
0,7
2,0
-0,5
0,7
-0,5
0,40,2
q-t-q y-o-y
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI: IRLANDIA
Triwulan I/2010 - III/2012
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
-1,0
-2,8
-6,6
-9,0 -8,8-7,9
-4,0
-7,9
-6,7 -6,4 -6,7-6,0
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI YUNANI
Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
q
-
t
-
q
)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
1,4
0,1
0,8
0,2
0,7
0,0 0,0 0,1
-1,0
-0,5 -0,4
-0,9
q-t-q y-o-y
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI: HONGARIA
Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012
0,0
0,3
0,6
0,9
1,2
1,5
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
q
-
t
-
q
)
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
0,6
1,21,3
0,9
1,1
1,3
0,70,8
0,4
0,1
0,3
q-t-q y-o-y
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI POLANDIA
Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012
-
15
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
q
-
t
-
q
)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
-0,2
0,2
-1,4
0,5
1,2
0,2
1,1
-0,2 -0,2
0,3
-0,2
0,2
q-t-q y-o-y
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI: ROMANIA
Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012
-1,5
-0,9
-0,3
0,3
0,9
1,5
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
q
-
t
-
q
)
-3,0
-1,8
-0,6
0,6
1,8
3,0
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
1,3
0,1
0,8
0,3 0,3
0,0
-1,0
-0,3-0,6
-0,8-0,7-1,0
q-t-q y-o-y
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI: SIPRUS
Triwulan I/2010 - IV/2012
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
E
u
r
o
M
i
l
i
a
r
2006:1 2007:1 2008:1 2009:1 2010:1 2011:1 2012:1
NERACA TRANSAKSI BERJALAN EA(17)
Triwulan I/2006 - IV/2012
96
97,4
98,8
100,2
101,6
103
I
n
d
e
k
s
-3
-1,6
-0,2
1,2
2,6
4
K
e
n
a
i
k
a
n
(
%
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
Jul Okt Jan'12 Apr Jul Okt Jan'13
Indeks Kenaikan
INDEKS PRODUKSI KAWASAN EROPA (17)
Juli 2011 - Januari 2013
-
16
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
I
n
d
e
k
s
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
EU(17)
Portugal
Itali
Yunani
Spanyol
SENTIMENT INDEX: KAWASAN EROPA (17)
Januari 2011 - Februari 2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
p
e
r
s
e
n
(
%
)
Jan'11 Apr Jul Okt Jan'12 Apr Jul Okt Jan'13
EA(16)
Jerman
Perancis
Inggris
Itali
Spanyol
Portugal
Yunani
Irlandia
LONG TERM BOND YIELD: EROPA
Januari 2011 - Februari 2013
1,20
1,26
1,32
1,38
1,44
1,50
U
S
D
/
E
u
r
o
-0,5
0,2
0,9
1,6
2,3
3,0
I
n
f
l
a
s
i
(
%
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
,
S
u
k
u
B
u
n
g
a
(
%
)
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Kurs Sk Bunga Inflasi
KURS EURO, INFLASI, DAN SUKU BUNGA
Januari 2011 - Maret 2013
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
I
n
d
e
k
s
Jan'11 Apr Jul Okt Jan'12 Apr Jul Okt Jan'13
PMI MANUFACTURE: EUROPE (MARKIT)
Januari 2011 - Februari 2013
-
17
19
20
21
22
23
24
%
P
D
B
2004:1 2006:1 2008:1 2010:1 2012:1
BUSINESS INVESTMENT RATE EA(17)
Triwulan I/2004 - IV/2012
14000
15100
16200
17300
18400
19500
#
(
r
i
b
u
o
r
g
)
10,0
10,4
10,8
11,3
11,7
12,1
P
e
r
s
e
n
t
a
s
e
(
%
)
Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
# Pengangguran Persentase
PENGANGGURAN KAWASAN EROPA (17)
Juli 2011 - Februari 2013
5
10
15
20
25
30
[
p
e
r
s
e
n
,
%
]
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
EA(17)
Jerman
Perancis
Inggris
Portugal
Itali
Spanyol
Yunani
PENGANGGURAN: BEBERAPA NEGARA EROPA
Januari 2011 - Februari 2013
50
52
54
56
58
I
n
d
e
k
s
Jul Okt Jan'12 Apr Jul Okt Jan'13
PMI MANUFACTURE: INDIA (HSBC)
Juli 2011 - Maret 2013
-
EKONOMI CINA2012:42012:32012:22012:12011:42011:32011:220122011201020092008200720062005
7,97,47,68,18,99,19,57,89,310,48,79,013,011,610,4PERTUMBUHAN PDB (%, y-o-y)2,02,12,01,51,92,32,4 (% perubahan q-t-q)
Sektor (%, y-t-d)4,54,24,33,84,33,83,24,54,3 Primer8,18,18,39,110,310,810,98,110,3 Sekunder8,17,97,77,59,49,09,28,19,4 Tersier2,51,92,23,64,16,16,4INFLASI
6,006,006,316,656,566,566,316,006,565,81SUKU BUNGA ACUAN (%)14,419,818,518,717,313,115,914,417,317,3UANG KUASI, M2, (% perub, y-o-y)
PERDAGANGAN LUAR NEGERI CINA (USD Miliar)555541525430507518475205118991578 Ekspor471462456429459454428181817411394 Impor
NERACA PEMBAYARAN (USD Miliar)-65424605359202238243421353232132Current Account Balance
-109122718567244254250361316218134 Good Balance11-22-18-15-20-11-55-31-29-12-8-9-10 Service Balance30-16-18-15-20-11-55-31-29-12-8-9-10 Income Balance-21225625413243372824 Transfer Balance
-67-4156-29669822128719840944995Cap and Fin Account Balance-2111115543344 Capital Account Balance
-65-4255-30659621628219537914591 Financial Account Balance-5241494929481701868711513910090 Direct Investment Balance14-13-15-15-16-12-50-58-44-57-17-24-14 Abroad Balance
-665464644560220244131172156124104 In China Balance-16119110112024273516-68-5 Portfolio Investment Balance
2-94-4-812637267280-113-64146 Other Investment Balance33123285324033053181320231983312318128472399194615301068822CADANGAN DEVISA (USD Miliar)
INVESTMENT (% perub, y-o-y)20,620,520,420,923,824,925,620,623,8 Fixed Investment16,215,416,623,527,932,032,916,227,9 Real Estate
PURCHASING MANAGER INDEX (Rata2 Bulanan)50,549,751,351,549,950,951,950,851,4 Manufaktur55,755,256,057,055,956,757,856,055,5 Non Manufaktur
CONFIDENCE1059910210399105107102103 Consumer (Index)
14,913,513,915,017,517,317,214,317,2 Ritel (% perubahan, y-o-y)61,861,163,764,467,569,370,662,869,6 Business (Index)10,09,19,511,712,813,813,910,113,7NILAI TAMBAH INDUSTRI (% perubahan, y-o-y)
Sumber: Diolah dari Badan Statistik Cina, Bea Cukai Cina, Dept. Perdagangan Cina, SAFE Cina, Bank Sentral Cina
-
19
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
(
Y
-
T
-
D
)
2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
3,5 3,23,8
4,33,8
4,3 4,2
11,1 10,9 10,810,3
9,18,3 8,1 8,1
9,1 9,2 9,0 9,4
7,5 7,7 7,98,1
Primer Sekunder Tersier
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI CINA: SEKTOR (YTD)
Triwulan I/2011 - IV/2012
1,4
1,6
1,8
2
2,2
2,4
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
q
-
t
-
q
)
7
7,6
8,2
8,8
9,4
10
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3
2,2
2,42,3
1,9
1,5
2,02,1
2,0
q-t-q y-o-y
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI CINA
Triwulan I/2011 - IV/2012
INDIKATOR BULANAN EKONOMI CINAMaret 2012 - Februari 2013
FebJan'13DesNovOktSepAgtJulJunMeiAprMar6,2226,2196,2316,2276,2376,2866,3506,3626,3556,3706,2776,302Kurs (Yuan/USD)
3,22,02,52,01,71,92,01,82,23,03,43,6Inflasi (%, y-o-y)108,2104,5103,7105,1106,1100,899,498,299,3104,2103,0100,0Consumer Confidence (Indeks)
50,150,450,650,650,249,849,250,150,250,453,353,1PMI Manufaktur (Indeks)54,556,256,155,655,553,756,355,656,755,256,158,0PMI Non-Manufaktur (Indeks)
9921397416944839364194369924899190792504900048896089957Uang Kuasi (M2) (Yuan Miliar)21,2 20,620,720,720,520,220,420,420,120,220,9Inv Fixed Assets (% perub, yoy)22,8 16,216,715,415,415,615,416,618,518,723,5Inv Real Estate (% perub, yoy)12,3 15,214,914,514,213,213,113,713,814,115,2Ritel Sales (% perub, yoy)
9,9 10,310,19,69,28,99,29,59,69,311,9Indeks Produksi (% perub, yoy)13,1 11,010,810,310,210,210,611,311,912,714,1Penjualan Industri (% perub,yoy)17,2 5,33,00,5-1,8-3,1-2,7-2,2-2,4-1,6-1,3Profit Industri (% perub, yoy139187199180176186178177180181163166Ekspor (USD Miliar)124158168160144159151152148162145160Impor (USD Miliar)
16293220322827253219195Neraca Perdagangan (USD Mil)Sumber: Statistics China. Februari mewakili bulan Januari dan Februari
-
20
100
120
140
160
180
200
N
i
l
a
i
(
U
S
D
M
i
l
i
a
r
)
-5
2
9
16
23
30
K
e
n
a
i
k
a
n
(
%
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Nilai Kenaikan
EKSPOR CINA
Juli 2011 - Februari 2013
75
95
115
135
155
175
N
i
l
a
i
(
U
S
D
M
i
l
i
a
r
)
-20
-6
8
22
36
50
K
e
n
a
i
k
a
n
(
%
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Nilai Kenaikan
IMPOR CINA
Juli 2011 - Februari 2013
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
K
e
n
a
i
k
a
n
(
%
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
Apr Jul Okt Jan'12 Apr Jul Okt Jan'13
NILAI TAMBAH INDUSTRI: CINA
April 2011 - Jan/Feb 2013
20,0
21,2
22,4
23,6
24,8
26,0
R
e
a
l
E
s
a
t
e
(
%
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
15
20
25
30
35
40
F
i
x
e
d
A
s
s
e
t
s
(
%
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
Feb Mei Agt Nov Feb Mei Agt Nov Feb
Real Estate Fixed Assets
KENAIKAN INVESTASI DI CINA
Jan/Feb 2011 - Jan/Feb 2013
49
50
51
52
53
54
I
n
d
e
k
s
M
a
n
u
f
a
k
t
u
r
53,0
54,2
55,4
56,6
57,8
59,0
I
n
d
e
k
s
N
o
n
-
M
a
n
u
f
a
k
t
u
r
Apr Jul Okt Jan'12 Apr Jul Okt Jan'13
Manufaktur Non-Manufaktur
PURCHASING MANAGER INDEX: CINA
April 2011 - Februari 2013
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
K
e
n
a
i
k
a
n
(
%
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
Apr Jul Okt Jan'12 Apr Jul Okt
PENJUALAN RITEL: CINA
April 2011 - Januari/Februari 2013
94
97
100
103
106
109
I
n
d
e
k
s
-10
-6
-2
2
6
10
K
e
n
a
i
k
a
n
(
%
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
Jan'11 Apr Jul Okt Jan'12 Apr Jul Okt Jan'13
Indeks Kenaikan
INDEKS KEYAKINAN KONSUMEN CINA
Januari 2011 - Februari 2013
6,20
6,27
6,34
6,41
6,48
6,55
6,62
Y
u
a
n
/
U
S
D
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
I
n
l
f
a
s
i
(
%
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
,
B
a
s
e
R
a
t
e
(
%
)
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Kurs Base Rate Inflasi
KURS YUAN, INFLASI, DAN SUKU BUNGA
Januari 2011 - Maret 2013
-10
0
10
20
30
P
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
(
%
)
Apr Jul Okt Jan'12 Apr Jul Okt Jan'13
Penjualan (y-t-d) Total Profit (y-t-d)
PENJUALAN & PROFIT INDUSTRI: CINA
April 2011 - Jan/Feb 2013
-
PERDAGANGAN DUNIA
21
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
)
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014*)
Negara Maju Ngr Berkembang
EKSPOR NEGARA MAJU DAN BERKEMBANG
Tahun 2004-2011, 2012-14 (proyeksi)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
)
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014*)
Negara Maju Ngr Berkembang
IMPOR NEGARA MAJU DAN BERKEMBANG
Tahun 2004-2011, 2012-14 (proyeksi)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
V
o
l
P
e
r
d
a
g
a
n
g
a
n
D
u
n
i
a
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
)
-20
-12
-4
4
12
20
28
H
a
r
g
a
K
o
m
o
d
i
t
i
N
o
n
-
M
i
g
a
s
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
)
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014*)
Vol. Perdagangan Harga Komoditi Non-Migas
VOL. PERDAGANGAN DAN HARGA KOMODITI
Tahun 1996-2011, 2012-2014 (Proyeksi)
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
BALTIC DRY INDEX
Januari 2011 - Maret 2013
-
22
DEFISIT ANGGARAN DAN STOK UTANG PEMERINTAH
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
%
P
D
B
EA (17)
Jerman
Perancis
Inggris
Itali
Spanyol
Belanda
Yunani
Portugal
Irlandia
87,2 81,2 85,8 85,7
120,1
68,5 65,2
165,3
107,8 108,2
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
STOK UTANG BEBERAPA NEGARA UNI EROPA
Tahun 2007 - 2011
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
(
%
P
D
B
)
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Jerman Perancis Inggris Itali Spanyol
Belanda Yunani Portugal Irlandia AS
DEFISIT ANGGARAN AS DAN NEGARA EROPA
Tahun 1999 - 2011
-11
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
%
P
D
B
Irlandia
Inggris
Spanyol
AS
Yunani
Portugal
Perancis
Jepang
Eropa
Belanda
Belgia
Denmark
Jerman
Itali
Turki
Austria
Hongaria
Kanada
Polandia
Swedia
-8,3 -8,3 -8,0-7,0 -7,0
-6,1
-4,5
-9,8
-3,3-4,1
-3,3 -3,6
0,1
-3,0-2,0
-2,6 -2,8-3,7 -3,7
0,0
DEFISIT ANGGARAN AS, JEPANG, EROPA
Tahun 2012*)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
%
P
D
B
Vietnam
India
Malaysia
Thailand
Pakistan
Taiwan
Korsel
Filipina
Chili
Brasil
Cina
Meksiko
Hong Kong
Indonesia
S'pura
Argentina
-4,8-5,6
-4,7
-3,4
-6,6
-2,3
2,1
-1,5
1,4
-2,5
-1,6-2,4
1,0
-1,8
1,1
-2,8
DEFISIT ANGGARAN ASIA & AMERIKA LATIN
Tahun 2012*)
-
DEFISIT ANGGARAN DAN STOK UTANG EROPA
23
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
%
P
D
B
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Jerman Irlandia Yunani Spanyol Perancis
Itali Belanda Polandia Portugal Inggris
DEFISIT ANGGARAN UNI EROPA
Tahun 1998 - 2011
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
%
P
D
B
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Belgia Denmark Siprus Luxem
Hongaria Finlandia Swedia Norwegia
DEFISIT ANGGARAN UNI EROPA
Tahun 1998 - 2011
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
%
P
D
B
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Jerman Irlandia Yunani Spanyol Perancis
Itali Belanda Polandia Portugal Inggris
STOK UTANG UNI EROPA
Tahun 1998 - 2011
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
%
P
D
B
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Belgia Denmark Siprus Luxem
Hongaria Finlandia Swedia Norwegia
STOK UTANG UNI EROPA
Tahun 1998 - 2011
-
GEO-EKONOMI
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014*)2017*)
Negara Maju Ngr Berkembang
PERTUMB PDB: NEGARA MAJU & BERKEMBANG
Thn 1990-2011, 2012-17 (proyeksi IMF)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014*)2017*)
Afrika Asia CIS ETT Timteng
PERTUMBUHAN PDB: NEGARA BERKEMBANG
Thn 1990-2011, 2012-17 (proyeksi IMF)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
(
%
p
e
r
u
b
a
h
a
n
P
D
B
,
y
-
o
-
y
)
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Brasil Rusia India Cina
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI: BRIC
Thn 1980 - 2011
100
180
260
340
420
500
F
D
I
(
U
S
D
M
i
l
i
a
r
,
n
e
t
o
)
-300
-180
-60
60
180
300
P
o
r
t
f
o
l
i
o
,
L
a
i
n
n
y
a
,
O
f
f
i
c
i
a
l
(
U
S
D
M
i
l
)
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
FDI Portfolio Lainnya Official
ARUS MODAL KE EMERGING ECONOMIES
Tahun 1996-2011, 2012-2013 (Proyeksi)
-
25
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
P
D
B
N
o
m
i
n
a
l
(
U
S
D
M
i
l
i
a
r
)
2011 2012*) 2013*) 2014*) 2015*) 2016*) 2017*)
AS Jepang Inggris Jerman Perancis Itali
Kanada Brasil Cina India Rusia
PDB NOMINAL G-7 DAN BRIC
Tahun 2011 - 2017*)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
P
D
B
N
o
m
i
n
a
l
(
U
S
D
M
i
l
i
a
r
)
2009 2011 2013*) 2015*) 2017*)
Asia Latin Timteng ETT CIS Afrika
PDB NOMINAL NEGARA BERKEMBANG
Tahun 2009 - 2017*)
Ngr Brkmbg (16,39%)
Ngr Maju (83,61%)
Tahun 1992
Ngr Brkmbg (36,39%)
Ngr Maju (63,61%)
Tahun 2011
PERANAN NEGARA MAJU DAN BERKEMBANG
Tahun 1992 dan 2011
CIS (3,09%)Eropa Timur (9,65%)
Afrika (7,61%)
Amerika Latin (33,55%)
Asia (31,90%)Timur Tengah (14,19%)
Tahun 1992
CIS (9,62%)Eropa Timur (7,48%)
Afrika (4,84%)
Amerika Latin (22,07%)
Asia (45,17%)
Timur Tengah (10,83%)
Tahun 2011
PERANAN DALAM NEGARA BERKEMBANG
Tahun 1992 dan Tahun 2011
-
40 NEGARA TERBESAR: PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO TAHUN 2011 (USD Miliar)
2011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996NEGARANo.150761449913974142921402913377126231185311142106421028699519354879383327838United States1
72985930499145203494271322571932164114541325119810831019953856China25867548950354849435643574572465643033981416047314433391543244706Japan33607331233073641332929052771273024282014188318922134218121602438Germany42778257126272845258622582140205817961457133913301458147114231573France5249321431622165013661089882664552506554644587844872840Brazil62431226721932670282724572299219818581604146914791504146213691231United Kingdom72199206121172318213018751789173815171230112511071210122612001267Italy818501487122316611300990764591430345307260196271405392Russia918271630126612631153909809689591510488476454424421376India101739157713381503142412791134992866735715725661617638614Canada11148712449921054946778732655539424377400412381426425Australia1214801392146016011444123811331046886689609582618601573622Spain131154103588310941035952849760700706710672566487468387Mexico14111610158349311049952845722644576505533462358532573Korea15
84670853951043236428625723519616016514095216227Indonesia16838781798875784678640611539439401386412403387418Netherlands17774731614730649529483392303232196266250269255244Turkey18661551509524451405385374335287263256274279272312Switzerland19597456377476385357316250215189183188161146165158Saudi Arabia20545469411492468404374365319254230250261258256280Sweden21515473475510460400378362312254233233255256250276Belgium22515470431529425342304253217198190171168172157157Poland23485417375454393340304260225192171168159151158160Norway244824193613513072422031681371161159610598106111Iran25466430378400393376365340311301294326299275299288Taiwan2644536830632426021318115212897269284284299293272Argentina27418380385416376325306292254208192193213214208235Austria28409363284274286261247219168111119133133134149144South Africa29346319264273247207176161143127116123123112151182Thailand3034228426031425822218114812411010310483737671United Arab Emirates31332312311344311274258245213174160160174174170184Denmark3232828523223521116114711995989810096109112119Colombia33316295329315230183144113839312311798918671Venezuela34299302323343305262240230195148131128138134133136Greece3528824720223119416314412511010193947972100101Malaysia36263237240273246208196189165136125122130130123128Finland372602271861901781461251139691889485859995Singapore38248216173179173155123997670717875828578Chile39244229169207166145112886859444636333546Nigeria40
Sumber: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2012.
-
27
120 NEGARA TERBESAR: PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO PER KAPITA TAHUN 2011(USD)
2011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996NEGARA1158091055091047261189091070999019981163745656470550794458114659249280456434422749743Luxembourg1
98144749015954579409648725838350109417043278828374270342879721139184012132417749Qatar297607850557738694816833367278565646565384917642207378203739135554340363585136460Norway383073699736544269049599995432151889508184574639506364893573938399393043845044184Switzerland466371560984524948819446553731835635323402693821422193172073021646202252289023088Australia563626544115127065992574685248643989393053501732791326213468927321258982953629059UEA659709563695644962800571715055447617453403949532390300003003432736327963230935124Denmark757638498454401853101509944429241369405933559028446258482815429474291022896731599Sweden850496462833971945171433063930235205311042740223467231002365321775204752134520757Canada950216470174830053199478394149839190375073324127206249912425026056256702479126922Netherlands1049688453064599149915452463933937143357203134125769238542404526598267802611429497Austria1149271438653656738087366953176328498264192302922028210012279121073214752528425074Singapore1248783441364484951297465023944437316361523152926057240142357625234251852392825014Finland1348328468114546146901464674475042629404013832536950360653525233502318583054129077United States1448289464455037259533596175263649133461634001431554273872579225832238352222220639Ireland1546989435934413947790434863808636187348353015524607226712279124950251112458927199Belgium1645870428633932137865340383407735781364443371831241327113730435014309813430737425Japan1744111405134039344334404633527533603330902942924414228632302025995265902632329767Germany1844007409394204845789418503677235107340202987724414226012260024930252302448727153France1943723334813041042824337333190727015215861878715759151081701313358114251374118525Kuwait2043088388923785553253651825437654420451363775130902275663062131300299892722627087Iceland2138811364423548943511463574054538159367273119127043248432511025630250052346821169UK2238534298522642336223314042994925754218851875716977168281847714514130851722517370Brunei2336267341543525138883360263190930607300202647221573197451945121258215482109722283Italy2435973320612714130948311372575426937244042007015382134051373615051146111786518138New Zealand2534259317862991730926298472750925999244032344324351247532519924600253532705624583Hong Kong2632351295392702428581242062153620284195591868218100200512076418803190491926419155Israel2732077302083178235113321682808126102245012108216670149651445615487151371447715763Spain2828670273872865831686280392430622742213601822714676136151318613997138301305613922Cyprus2926735269722890730780274782365821737208611769313446119501166212639123231231212677Greece3024900234072456927235235951939117857169561462111621102921009111252110041030810650Slovenia3123572198671674321804153691378411806960185298070794080976556639673707205Oman322291819420185632841624171211561832415601137261212711720118901002696601024210167Bahrain33224242054016959190282159019676175511502913451120941065511347990677241158212587Korea3422359215382208423839218961910918252177231558912852117421153912473121701150212066Portugal3522354225562264924482249882421523714221242197122311212012089420203182471720615163Bahamas36211961654114129184711543414784136501111297458773872592048055747486558478Saudi Arabia37211371945619503208401836615719148311407512860108679971102711047610263984710016Malta38204361881418739217151754414474127261116293397684627057216042620157686287Czech3920083185731633117372171221645116023149861374813370131081464113535125461374013376Taiwan40
-
28
120 NEGARA TERBESAR: PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO PER KAPITA TAHUN 2011 (LANJUTAN)(USD)
2011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996NEGARA1764416050161221750013913103678902784561974562392637913801415039723934Slovak4117060158271500821298166071415212346102908816706269676461n/an/an/an/aTrinidad4216568141381434317811163841249310319890172575376456341364147402135973317Estonia43155541534815935157781632015316142951280411946115031147211514112701077195949131Barbados441450010961951314861104378201722147392747205517101321847545702398Guinea45144031264010203107061041794107564617447834421456150414949544957385310Chile4614182134491405015694133861123110082923976895974519249114371480444005203Croatia47140501284512624153541352111167109251007582376525516945384706466545184472Hungary48138661174291179108704359105287416136534050631769147293775473617039Uruguay49136181068111433147311255986536910592247813933347732713038278125582301Latvia50134691230811298138891115689547963662556735183497844314339444940654058Poland51132621111611103141601164889107644659454134104351032863113n/an/an/aLithuania521299310408861711704915369625348412029842380210617751334183827402647Russia53127891108984728704728158694787365430852867319037623478507753215207Brazil5412766129861382915636151311349011995109821045110078989510212104381016897549343Antigua551272812216127471397313277123651074710168961210154987793979120904685497572St. Kitts5611204107279637110671221912263113041039385258432766375797747771672816583Seychelles5711167900971198571662652623753286320621657149212301132148014591359Kazakhstan5810959916277088270670555414782404834392656741879177970847883817862Argentina5910630100991149811236836567965453435432853729503348454132392937683160Venezuela6010518882074219994807568296354539546653894381542043965390847595214Gabon611036310017852810272924576267040579145353519300241473943430842784167Turkey62101469219797910051966790338163737468656991711868595862511849824181Mexico6310085873772528390712260665421481643524078384639923455323246014752Malaysia64
9862950189837900666659695824580554215237489048454997506747674052Lebanon659537814364057589700464735985586147803640365334413615345433743285Botswana668875766776499497791756874589350327422061181816721586186815571551Romania67887479396359658259245174468044504284421341994185n/an/an/an/aCosta Rica688742757569197598616053745219534647644058391339913846385039993950Mauritius698514753969746759592152184791447041504010393139424074395437093486Panama70845781927425683357585209448437903322287223022713265032642751n/aSuriname718078727157465606591055115267472336562445263329863029310034953439South Africa727850753574578003741768436801590558475337518151814797443138723596Grenada737379730071287173695062825637535348994558448948994866467443244321St. Lucia7473176383646471005759432336283337275320861893n/an/an/an/an/aMontenegro757308637464336855552043293753326226542043175815881647162313011233Bulgaria767114625951495293479437023418280422632367240724802429277129063135Colombia7771065847493352133759241515381019864749693648572541506409Azerbaijan786829680269016475590354615090516247904593464545554492434741083964Dominica796420563849274857431234292925246520421767178715101666158317451770Iran80
-
29
120 NEGARA TERBESAR: PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO PER KAPITA TAHUN 2011 (LANJUTAN)(USD)
2011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996NEGARA 6280616561496401627556245098485245004335405737403642349232313085St. Vincent815904520743624427380033402917260123252184210821172078232524602361Peru825892648561706110505843603379371633942952278029672843265925542108Maldives835862524442474276434540053709344126081811194021401874194121442126Namibia845845582451806386467238053098231818101474124210431212151513971430Belarus8557254892549764855304395733683154261720211524115214442039n/an/aSerbia865545522748154777437938373713243123152604292728712642256424552211Dominican875510112399912139431104891618053574546493935624571506860582972527228Libya885503457339544996396735173142263721281807176917951630163316591643Algeria8954174423374034042645206417261486127011321038946861817771699China905395499241514300391832962825260322612020185419831989182024813027Thailand9153144329408246713443244616991130820689556585406442536470Angola925267484344255025474444234181381735433684352334973461346833413002Jamaica935162455245484828399832192944271723531861170517861837179618832233Macedonia94507840723776408450064191341828712347181514691082845638576566Turkmenistan9546544272437647413902316427932603219717531523146915481445n/an/aBosnia964618432639873757299026892300213319491880180317421720171216081581Jordan974428392035703775321629922689241121291879164112751343187819411787Ecuador984317419941714346380733943218314027902374228622452426233622512366Tunisia994266422641074244407840473821373836113517338833313013288828452889Belize1004244356532624096391735993519329128202268206421182375212527572778Fiji1014221372132693236319729802833249721781940182919262007221423062347Tonga102415429992530298518211116861625481471471410307n/an/an/aTimor-Leste1034020370538094087338428602614235118471434132311901107891711984Albania1043855361835483705350032523017280826932578250623992293222420771937El Salvador1053688323825373026230518111511140611731144140115421606177019921999Paraguay1063661324231753147271122882036196717601366126012221397126012121271Cape Verde1073631311325613264237022451820143011079829351109834711871981Congo108362429802550389930712305183013681048879781636637838995876Ukraine10935122981229922091897162312911177109192276780068747310831154Indonesia1103478262422152947201716101225917n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/aIraq11134723414315127782888253622762123186215081277122612801412n/an/aSamoa1123384313125002432255923502245204916431081120614041428147216111555Swaziland1133333293126342507227719151729165515881544151515121417145915141440Guyana11432102623245529372326176514841188919777728686627804784652Georgia115320228622495277024552027208220821824n/an/an/an/an/an/an/aTuvalu1163183287526902860255523202141193318131762162515301588171116341480Guatemala117312622671688210816201327991790641568523476448483514594Mongolia1183105283625232594235920021840174015341310132114251436144115381512Vanuatu1193084285128852851243921521973190816881385130813011407144112241365Morocco120
Sumber: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2012
-
30
1,20
1,25
1,30
1,35
1,40
1,45
U
S
D
/
E
u
r
o
1,50
1,54
1,57
1,61
1,64
1,68
U
S
D
/
G
B
P
Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Euro (Eropa) Poundsterling (UK)
NILAI TUKAR: EURO DAN POUNDSTERLING
Juli 2011 - Maret 2013
75
79
83
87
91
95
Y
e
n
/
U
S
D
6,20
6,25
6,30
6,35
6,40
6,45
Y
u
a
n
/
U
S
D
Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Yen Yuan
NILAI TUKAR: YEN DAN YUAN
Juli 2011 - Maret 2013
NILAI TUKAR MATA UANG (AKHIR PERIODE)April 2012 - Maret 2013
MarFebJan'13DesNovOktSepAgtJulJunMeiApr94,292,191,186,582,679,977,978,478,279,578,279,9Jepang (Y/USD)1,521,521,581,631,601,611,621,591,571,571,541,60UK (USD/GBP)1,281,311,361,321,301,301,291,261,231,261,241,33Uni Eropa (USD/Euro)6,216,226,226,236,236,246,296,356,366,366,376,28China (Yuan/USD)54,354,453,255,054,553,852,955,555,755,656,452,7India (Rupee/USD)
111110831089106410831091111311341131114411811132Korea (Won/USD)29,829,629,629,029,129,229,329,930,029,829,929,1Taiwan (NTD/USD)1,241,241,241,221,221,221,231,251,241,271,291,24Singapura (SGD/USD)7,767,767,767,757,757,757,757,767,757,767,767,76Hong Kong (HKD/USD)29,329,829,830,630,730,730,831,331,531,731,930,7Thailand (Bath/USD)3,093,093,113,063,043,053,063,123,133,173,183,03Malaysia (Ringgit/USD)40,840,740,741,040,841,141,742,141,842,143,742,2Filipina (Peso/USD)
971996679698967096059615958895609485948095659190Indonesia (Rp/USD)Sumber: Bloomberg, BI (untuk Rupiah)
-
31
29,0
29,6
30,2
30,8
31,4
32,0
B
a
t
h
/
U
S
D
41
41
42
43
43
44
P
e
s
o
/
U
S
D
Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Bath (Thai) Peso (Filipina)
NILAI TUKAR: BATH DAN PESO
Juli 2011 - Maret 2013
2,95
3,00
3,05
3,10
3,15
3,20
R
i
n
g
g
i
t
/
U
S
D
1,17
1,20
1,23
1,26
1,29
1,32
S
G
D
/
U
S
D
Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Ringgit (Malaysia) Dolar Singapura
NILAI TUKAR: RINGGIT DAN DOLAR S'PURA
Juli 2011 - Maret 2013
8400
8660
8920
9180
9440
9700
R
u
p
i
a
h
/
U
S
D
1040
1072
1104
1136
1168
1200
W
o
n
/
U
S
D
Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Rupiah(Indonesia) Won (Korea)
NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DAN WON
Juli 2011 - Maret 2013
44,0
46,8
49,6
52,4
55,2
58,0
R
u
p
e
e
/
U
S
D
28,5
28,9
29,3
29,7
30,1
30,5
N
T
D
/
U
S
D
Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Rupee (India) Taiwan Dolar
NILAI TUKAR RUPEE DAN DOLAR TAIWAN
Juli 2011 - Maret 2013
-
32
CADANGAN DEVISA (USD MILIAR)Maret 2012 - Februari 2013
FebJan'13DesNovOktSepAgtJulJunMeiAprMar1258,81267,31268,11270,81274,21277,01273,21272,81270,51277,71289,51288,7Jepang
3311,63297,73287,43285,13272,93240,03240,03206,13298,93305,0Cina526,2532,2537,6528,2526,8529,9514,9510,5514,3510,4524,4513,5Rusia373,7377,8378,6378,6377,8378,7377,2376,2373,9372,4374,3365,2Brasil290,6295,2296,6294,5294,3294,8288,9288,7290,0285,9293,2294,4India327,4328,9327,0326,1323,5322,0316,9314,4312,4310,9316,8316,0Korea Selatan404,1406,6403,2401,0399,2398,0394,2391,1391,2389,3395,1393,9Taiwan304,8304,7317,3305,2301,7301,2298,2296,3295,0291,9295,6294,6Hong Kong259,1258,8259,3255,8254,2252,1246,2244,1243,3237,7246,1243,6Singapura 179,3181,6181,6181,6181,4183,6179,2175,7174,7171,7179,0179,2Thailand105,2108,8112,8111,3110,3110,2109,0106,6106,5111,5116,4110,5Indonesia140,3140,2139,7139,1138,3137,5134,9134,5134,2136,0135,9135,7Malaysia
83,885,884,284,182,182,080,879,376,376,076,076,5Filipina44,948,349,148,251,247,045,449,348,151,849,851,9Australia
Sumber: Bank Sentral/Otoritas Moneter Negara Terkait
200
250
300
350
400
(
U
S
D
M
i
l
i
a
r
)
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Korsel
HongKong
Brasil
Singapura
Taiwan
CADEV: NGR INDUSTRI ASIA DAN BRASIL
Januari 2011 - Februari 2013
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
(
U
S
D
M
i
l
i
a
r
)
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Thailand
Indonesia
Malaysia
Filipina
Australia
CADEV: ASIA TENGGARA DAN AUSTRALIA
Januari 2011 - Februari 2013
-
LONG TERM BOND YIELD DAN CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP: ASIA DAN EROPA
33
10
15
20
25
30
p
e
r
s
e
n
(
%
)
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
LONG TERM BOND YIELD: YUNANI
Januari 2011 - Februari 2013
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
p
e
r
s
e
n
(
%
)
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
EA(16)
Jerman
Perancis
Inggris
Itali
Spanyol
Portugal
Irlandia
LONG TERM BOND YIELD: EROPA
Januari 2011 - Februari 2013
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
p
e
r
s
e
n
(
%
)
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Cina Malaysia Siingapura Taiwan India
Filipina Indonesia Vietnam Korea
LONG TERM BOND YIELD: ASIA
Januari 2011 - Februari 2013
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
b
p
s
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Cina
Malaysia
Thailand
Indonesia
Filipina
India
Korea
CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP: ASIA
Januari 2011 - Februari 2013
-
PASAR DAN HARGA MINYAK MENTAH DUNIA
PERKEMBANGAN HARGA MINYAK MENTAH20132012Realisasi Harga Minyak
FebJanDesNovOktSepAgtJulJunMeiAprMarMentah (USD/barel)95,394,788,286,789,594,594,187,982,494,7103,3106,2 WTI
111,1107,6105,7107,1108,7111,0108,499,294,2107,1117,3122,3 Dubai116,5113,0109,7109,7112,0113,4113,3103,195,6110,5120,5124,9 Brent107,6105,1101,2101,2103,4106,3105,396,890,7104,1113,7117,8 Rata2 (WTI, Dubai, Brent)114,9111,1106,9106,7109,9111,0111,7102,999,1113,8124,6128,1 ICP
Sumber: Bank Dunia, IMF, Pertamina/ESDMKRONOLOGI PROYEKSI HARGA MINYAK MENTAH
20132012MarFebJanDesNovOktSepAgtJulJunMeiAprProyeksi Bulan
Perkiraan Harga WTI (USD/barel)91,992,889,588,488,392,692,690,388,597,0103,8105,8 Keseluruhan Thn 201392,292,291,0 Keseluruhan Thn 2014
Perkiraan Harga Brent (USD/barel)108,3109,3105,2103,8103,4 Keseluruhan Thn 2013100,8100,899,3 Keseluruhan Thn 2014
Sumber: EIA, US Dept. of Energy, sampai dengan 12 Maret 2013
80
90
100
110
120
130
U
S
D
/
b
a
r
e
l
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Rata2 Brent Dubai WTI ICP
HARGA MINYAK MENTAH
Januari 2011 - Februari 2013
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
W
T
I
(
U
S
D
/
b
a
r
e
l
)
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
120
B
r
e
n
t
(
U
S
D
/
b
a
r
e
l
)
03-Sep 05-Oct 08-Nov 12-Dec 17-Jan 20-Feb 26-Mar
WTI Brent
HARGA SPOT MINYAK MENTAH WTI DAN BRENT
3 September 2012 - 2 April 2013
-
PRODUKSI, KONSUMSI, DAN INVENTORI MINYAK MENTAH DUNIA(Juta Barel per Hari)
2014201320122011201420132012Tw 4Tw 3Tw 2Tw 1Tw 4Tw 3Tw 2Tw 1Tw 4Tw 3Tw 2Tw 1
PRODUKSI24,4323,5522,5721,6224,7624,4124,2924,2824,2923,6323,4622,8223,0022,3022,4222,58 OECD12,5911,9411,1010,1412,9112,5812,5012,3712,3312,0111,8011,6111,6711,0010,9010,85 U.S. (50 States)
4,384,093,863,604,534,364,294,334,254,114,004,003,963,783,793,89 Canada2,872,932,942,962,832,862,882,902,912,922,932,952,922,942,952,94 Mexico3,023,043,103,342,923,023,043,103,243,003,162,762,822,973,233,36 North Sea1,581,561,581,571,571,601,581,571,561,591,571,521,631,611,541,54 Other OECD
67,3266,2866,4665,5967,6167,6967,3266,6666,5966,6166,4265,5066,1466,7766,5366,40 Non-OECD36,5136,0336,4035,1636,5836,3536,5636,5636,3136,1535,9835,6935,8336,5736,6836,52 OPEC30,5130,2930,8929,8230,4830,3230,5930,6530,5030,3930,2530,0130,2731,0531,1831,06 Crude Oil Portion
6,005,755,515,336,106,035,975,915,825,765,735,685,565,525,505,45 Other Liquids13,3913,3313,4113,3113,4513,4013,3513,3413,3413,1013,4213,4613,5513,3413,3413,41 Former Soviet Union
4,564,524,404,334,584,574,574,544,554,554,534,474,494,404,354,36 China12,8612,3912,2512,8013,0113,3612,8412,2112,3812,8112,5011,8912,2712,4612,1512,12 Other Non-OECD 91,7589,8389,0387,2192,3792,1091,6190,9390,8890,2489,8888,3289,1489,0788,9588,98 Total Produksi Dunia55,2453,8052,6352,0655,7955,7555,0454,3754,5754,0953,9052,6453,3152,5052,2652,46 Non-OPEC Production
KONSUMSI45,5645,6545,9546,4645,8545,4344,8646,1146,0745,6045,0345,8946,1245,8645,5246,29 OECD18,6618,5818,5618,9518,5818,7418,6918,6118,5918,7218,6618,3418,4918,6718,6518,42 U.S. (50 States)
0,350,330,320,300,350,350,350,350,330,330,330,330,320,320,320,32 U.S. Territories2,352,342,312,292,372,392,282,352,372,392,282,312,302,382,322,24 Canada
13,3513,5013,7514,2913,4613,5013,0713,3613,6413,6713,2413,4613,7313,7913,7513,74 Europe4,524,624,724,474,654,244,215,004,754,344,305,114,834,484,305,29 Japan6,336,276,296,166,436,206,266,446,386,156,216,346,456,236,196,29 Other OECD
45,9744,4843,1841,8645,9446,7646,3644,8344,7345,0144,5243,6843,7543,2443,2042,54 Non-OECD5,114,944,784,635,235,244,955,035,055,064,784,864,864,874,704,67 Former Soviet Union0,720,710,700,700,730,730,710,700,720,720,700,700,720,720,700,69 Europe
11,1910,6810,239,8511,1011,4111,4210,8310,8810,6710,5810,6210,599,9310,0910,32 China10,8610,6210,4610,2310,9210,6111,0510,8610,6810,3810,8010,6110,5010,2310,6810,43 Other Asia18,0917,5317,0116,4417,9618,7718,2217,4017,4018,1817,6616,8917,0917,4917,0416,43 Other Non-OECD 91,5390,1389,1388,3191,7992,1991,2290,9490,8090,6289,5589,5789,8789,1088,7288,83 Total Konsumsi Dunia
INVENTORI (Net Withdrawals)0,010,058-0,150,130,43-0,11-0,29-0,010,45-0,12-0,350,250,13-0,11-0,33-0,29 U.S. (50 States)
-0,080,095-0,060,17-0,380,07-0,030,01-0,200,190,010,390,25-0,30-0,05-0,15 Other OECD-0,140,1510,310,80-0,630,13-0,060,01-0,330,310,010,610,350,440,150,29 Other Stock Draws and Balance -0,220,3040,101,10-0,580,09-0,390,01-0,080,38-0,321,250,730,03-0,23-0,15 Total Stock Draw
End-of-period Inventories (jt brl)1111111211001074110811291110109711101131111010961113111410971076 U.S. Commercial Inventory2655265126822674266626682652263626432659264926522692271526732648 OECD Commercial Inventory
Sumber: Diolah dari EIA, US Dept. of Energy, Maret 2013
-
36
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price
dollars per barrel
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jul 2014
Historical spot priceSTEO price forecast
NYMEX futures price95% NYMEX futures upper confidence interval95% NYMEX futures lower confidence interval
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2013
Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending
March 7, 2013. Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in near-the-money options
contracts.
World Liquid Fuels Supply and Demand Balance
million barrels per day
Forecast
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
2008-Q1 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 2011-Q1 2012-Q1 2013-Q1 2014-Q1
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0Implied stock change and balance (right axis)
World supply (left axis)
World demand (left axis)
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2013
Annual Imported Crude Oil Price
dollars per barrel
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Nominal Price Real Price (Mar 2013 $)
Forecast
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2013
Quarterly Imported Crude Oil Price
dollars per barrel
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1974Q1 1978Q1 1982Q1 1986Q1 1990Q1 1994Q1 1998Q1 2002Q1 2006Q1 2010Q1 2014Q1
Nominal Price Real Price (Mar 2013 $)
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2013
Forecast
-
37
-0,6
-0,3
0,0
0,3
0,6
0,9
1,2
1,5
2012 2013 2014
OPEC countries North America Russia and Caspian Sea
Latin America North Sea Other Non-OPEC
World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth
million barrels per day
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2013
Forecast
World Liquid Fuels Consumption
million barrels per day (mmbd)
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0Change in U.S. consumption (right axis)
Change in China consumption (right axis)
Change in other consumption (right axis)
Total world consumption (left axis)
annual change (mmbd)
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2013
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
U
n
i
t
e
d
S
t
a
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C
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C
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B
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a
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C
o
l
o
m
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V
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K
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s
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M
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O
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N
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a
A
u
s
t
r
a
l
i
a
O
m
a
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G
a
b
o
n
I
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d
i
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E
g
y
p
t
S
u
d
a
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A
z
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b
a
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j
a
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U
n
i
t
e
d
K
i
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g
d
o
m
S
y
r
i
a
N
o
r
w
a
y
M
e
x
i
c
o
2014
2013
2012
Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth
million barrels per day
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2013
OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity
million barrels per day
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2013
Note: Shaded area represents 2002-2012 average (2.5 million barrels per day)
Forecast
-
PRODUKSI, KONSUMSI, DAN STOK MINYAK MENTAH DUNIA
38
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
J
u
t
a
B
a
r
e
l
/
H
a
r
i
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Produksi Konsumsi
PRODUKSI DAN KONSUMSI MINYAK MENTAH
Januari 2010 - Februari 2013
34,0
34,7
35,4
36,1
36,8
37,5
O
P
E
C
(
j
u
t
a
b
a
r
e
l
/
h
a
r
i
)
50,5
51,1
51,7
52,3
52,9
53,5
N
o
n
-
O
P
E
C
(
j
u
t
a
b
a
r
e
l
/
h
a
r
i
)
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
OPEC Non-OPEC
PRODUKSI: OPEC DAN NON-OPEC
Januari 2011 - Februari 2013
44,5
45,2
45,9
46,6
47,3
48,0
O
E
C
D
(
j
u
t
a
b
a
r
e
l
/
h
a
r
i
)
39,0
40,2
41,4
42,6
43,8
45,0
N
o
n
-
O
E
C
D
(
j
u
t
a
b
a
r
e
l
/
h
a
r
i
)
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
OECD Non-OECD
KONSUMSI: OECD DAN NON-OECD
Januari 2011 - Februari 2013
1040
1060
1080
1100
1120
1140
A
S
(
j
u
t
a
b
a
r
e
l
)
2600
2628
2656
2684
2712
2740
O
E
C
D
L
a
i
n
n
y
a
(
j
u
t
a
b
a
r
e
l
)
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
AS OECD Lainnya
STOK KOMERSIAL AS DAN OECD LAINNYA
Januari 2011 - Februari 2013
-
PRODUKSI DAN SPARE CAPACITY MINYAK MENTAH DAN BAHAN BAKAR CAIR OPEC
39
28,5
29,1
29,7
30,3
30,9
31,5
M
i
n
y
a
k
M
e
n
t
a
h
(
J
u
t
a
B
a
r
e
l
/
H
a
r
i
)
5,20
5,30
5,40
5,50
5,60
5,70
B
h
n
B
k
r
C
a
i
r
(
J
u
t
a
B
a
r
e
l
/
H
a
r
i
)
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Minyak Mentah Bahan Bakar Cair
PROD. MINYAK DAN BHN BKR CAIR OPEC
Januari 2011 - Februari 2013
8,0
8,4
8,8
9,2
9,6
10,0
A
r
a
b
S
a
u
d
i
(
J
u
t
a
B
a
r
e
l
/
H
a
r
i
)
2,60
2,84
3,08
3,32
3,56
3,80
I
r
a
n
(
J
u
t
a
B
a
r
e
l
/
H
a
r
i
)
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Arab Saudi Iran
PROD. MINYAK ARAB SAUDI DAN IRAN
Januari 2011 - Februari 2013
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
M
i
n
y
a
k
M
e
n
t
a
h
(
J
u
t
a
B
a
r
e
l
/
H
a
r
i
)
Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
Kuwait Vanezuela Nigeria UEA Angola
Libya Iraq Algeria Qatar Ecuador
PROD. MINYAK ANGGOTA OPEC LAINNYA
Januari 2011 - Februari 2013
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
5
(
J
u
t
a
B
a
r
e
l
/
H
a
r
i
)
Jul Jan'09 Jul Jan'10 Jul Jan'11 Jul Jan'12 Jul Jan'13
SPARE CAPACITY MINYAK MENTAH OPEC