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LOGO
ANALISIS KARAKTERISTIK DAN POTENSI DAERAH
SERTA KEBUTUHAN DAERAHSERTA KEBUTUHAN DAERAH
Drs. Ahmad Jamli, M.A.
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LOGO
Potensi dan
SDA
Potensi danKebutuhan
DaerahPemanfaatan
SDM• S & DS &•Elasticity•ICOR•S
Tools
Financing(saving)
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LOGO Indikator Ekonomi Daerah
Key IndicatorKey Indicator• Retail Sales•Consumer installment credit•Personal income and spending
Real GDRP and ItsComponents
Consumption
•Employment report•New claims for unemployment insuranceC fConsumption
GoodsSevice
•Consumer confidence and sentiment surveys•ADP National Employment ReportReport•Real earnings•Auto sales•Chain store salesChain store sales
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LOGO-Industrial production
Key Indicator
p-Capacity utilization-Orders for durable goods
Nonresidentialg-ISM surveys-Factory ordersManufacturers’
Business Fixed
Investment
-Manufacturers shipments, inventories, and others
Investment -Housing starts-New single-family home salesExisting home salesResidential -Existing home sales
-MBA mortgage applications-MBA survey on homeMBA survey on home building
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LOGO
Change in business Manufacturing and trade
Key Indicators
Change in business inventories
Manufacturing and trade inventories
Government Spending•Construction spending•APBD
•International tradeNet exports
•International trade•Current account balance
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LOGOSigns of Price Pressuresg
Key Indicators
•Consumer price index
Key Indicators
Inflation
Consumer price index•Producer price index•Employment cost index•Non farm productivity•Non-farm productivity•Unit labor cost•Import and export prices•Employer cost for employee compensation
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LOGOAttributes of Economic Indicator
A
Timelines forAccuracy
Th
for indicator
The business
cycle stagey g
Degree of interest
Predictive abilityability
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LOGO COUNTRY PFOFIL INDONESIA 2010
People The economyPopulation 228,1 juta GDP Rp 3.957 triliunPopulation per km2 119,8 GDP $433 milyarp pAverage annual growth in population 2010-15
0,98% Average annual growth in real GDP 2002-07
6,1%
Population under 15 27% GDP per head $1,290Population over 60 8 8% GDP per head in ppp (USA 100) 8 1Population over 60 8,8% GDP per head in ppp (USA = 100) 8,1
No. of men per 100 women 100 Economic freedom index 53,4
HDI 72,6 Origins of GDP % of totalgLife expentacy : men 68,7 tahun Agriculture 13,7
women 72,7 tahun Industry, of which : manufacturing 46,827,1
Adult literacy 92% services 39 5Adult literacy 92% services 39,5Fertility rate (per woman) 2 Components of GDP % of total
Urban population 50,4% Private consumption 63,6Cr de birth rate 21 P blic cons mption 8 3Crude birth rate 21 Public consumption 8,3Crude death rate 6,3 Investment 24,9
Exports 29,4Imports -25,4
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LOGOStructure of employment Inflation and finance
% of total Consumer price inflation 2008 10,3%
Agriculture 45 Average annual inflation 9,3%Agriculture 45 Average annual inflation 9,3%
Industry 18 Money market rate, 2008 8,48%
services 37 Average annual increase 2002services 37 Average annual increase 2002‐07
%of labourforce
Narrow money (M1) 19,8%force
unmployed 9,1 Broad money 13,4%
Average annual rate 1995‐2007 7,4 Exchange rate
Energy End 2008
m TOE Rp per $ 10.950
Total output 307,7 Rp per SDR 16.866
Total consumption 179,1 Rp per £ 15.242
Consumption per head, kg oil eqiuvalent
803eqiuvalent
Net energy imports as % of energy use
‐72
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LOGOTrade
Principal export Principal imports
$ bn fob $ bn cif
Garment & textiles 9,8 Intermediate goods 57,4
Natural gas 9,8 Capital goods 11,2
Petroleum & products 9,2 Consumer goods 5,9
Total include others 114,1 Total include others 74,5
Main export destination
Main origin ofimports
% of total % of total
Japan 20,6 Singapore 43,5
United States 12,1 China 18,8
Singapore 11,7 Japan 13,2
China 9,7 South Korea 8,6
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LOGOBalance of payment, reserves and debt, $bn$
Visible exports fob 118 Changes in reserves 14,3
Visible imports fob -82,3 Level of reserves end Dec. 56,9Visible imports fob 82,3 Level of reserves end Dec. 56,9
Trade balance 32,8 No. months of import cover 5,3
f OffInvisibles inflows 15,9 Official gold holdings, m oz 2,4
Invisibles outflows -43,3 Foreign debt 140,8
Net transfers 4,9 -as % of GDP 43
Current account 10,3 -as % of total export 120balances-as % of GDP
2,4
Capital balance 3 5 Debt service ratio 11Capital balance 3,5 Debt service ratio 11
Overral balance 12,7
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LOGOHealth and education
Society
Health spending, % 2,5 No. of households 60,6mp g,GDP
, ,
Doctors per 100 population
0,1 Average number per household 3,8populationHospital beds per 100 population
0,6 Marriages per 100 population 7
Improved water 77 Divorces per 1000 population 0 8Improved-water source acces, % ofpopulation
77 Divorces per 1000 population 0,8
Education spending, % of GDP
3,5 Cost of living, Feb. 2009New York = 100
62
Enrolment, % primary 121 Olours TVs per 100 households 82,8
secondary73 Telephone lines per 100 pop. 7,7
tertiary … Mobile telephone subscribers 35,3y pper 100 pop.
,
Computers per 100 pop 2Internet hosts per 1000 pop 3 4
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LOGOPENGERTIAN DAERAH
Daerah homogen Daerah nodal
Daerah perencanaan
atau atau administrasi
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LOGO Phase in Local Economic Developmentp
Phase I data gathering and analysisPhase II selecting local development strategyPhase III selecting local development projectg p p jPhase IV building acion plansPhase V specifying project detailsPhase V specifying project detailsPhase VI overall development plan preparation and implementationp
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LOGOINFORMASI UNTUK MENGANALISIS POTENSI DAERAH
Population
POTENSI DAERAH
Population
EconomicEconomic structure
EmploymentSocioeconomic Base Analysis
Community f t
Physical/loca-tionalfactors tional
conditions
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LOGOTypes of Data Collection and Analysis
Use existing data record held by local planning or service agenciesSurveyUse of aggregate quantitative analysis
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LOGO Contoh Identifikasi Permasalahan dalamPengembangan Potensi DaerahPengembangan Potensi Daerah
•Kabupaten Belu sebagai salah satu kabupaten di provinsi NTT memiliki potensi yang cukup besar, seperti pada sektor pertanian, setor peternakan, dan sektor lain. •Berdasarkan hasl interview, identifikasi permasalahan pokok yang dihadapi dalam pengembangan potensi daerah yaitu :
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LOGO Regional and Local Quantitative Methods Methods
Shift share Location Q ti tanalysis Quotients
(LQ)
KlassenKlassenTipology ICOR
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LOGOICOR
1. S merupakan proporsi (s atau MPS) dari Y:
S = s.Y (i)
2. I perubahan stok modal (ΔK):
I = ΔK (ii)
ΔK3. ICOR = ------ atau ΔK = ICOR. ΔY (iia)
ΔY
4. S = I (iii)
5. S = s.Y = ICOR. ΔY = ΔK = I
ΔY/Y = s/ICOR (iv)
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LOGO TabelPDB Per Kapita dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Atas Dasar Harga Konstan 2000 Tahun 2000 2010Atas Dasar Harga Konstan 2000 Tahun 2000 – 2010
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LOGO Tabel Perkembangan Investasi Indonesia Tahun 2000 – 2010
Atas Harga KonstanAtas Harga Konstan Tahun 2000
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LOGO
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LOGOShift Share Analysisy
Menganalisis perubahan struktur perekonomianMenganalisis perubahan struktur perekonomiandaerah terhadap negaraBermanfaat untuk mengidentifikasi keunggulang ggdaerah dan menganalisis sektor atau industri yang menjadi basis perekonomian daerahMenyediakan kinerja perek lokal melalui1. Economic growth2. The proportional shift3. The differential shift
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LOGO Shift Share
pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah :(1) Dij Dij = = Nij + Mij + Cij(1) Dij Dij Nij Mij CijPengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional : (2) Nij = = Eij X rn Pengaruh bauran industri: :(3) Mij = = Eij ( rin –rn )Pengaruh keunggulan kompetitif :(4) Cij = = Eij ( ( rij – rin ) )
Eij kesempatan kerja di di sektor i daerah jEij =kesempatan kerja di di sektor i daerah jEin = kesempatan kerja di sektor i nasionalrij adalah adalah laju pertumbuhan sektor I di daerah jrij adalah adalah laju pertumbuhan sektor I di daerah jrin adalah laju pertumbuhan sektor i nasional rn adalah laju pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional
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LOGO
Contoh Penerapan Analisis ShiftContoh Penerapan Analisis Shift Share
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LOGO Analisis Shift Share Sektor-sektor Ekonomi Propinsi Bengkulu terhadap Sumatera tahun 2002-2007 (Milyar
Rupiah)
Lapangan Usaha G S P D RSE AEpertanian 705,4 482,1 59,3 164 105 59
Pertambangan & Penggalian
‐311 38,2 ‐48,3 ‐301 146,3 ‐447,2
Industry pengolahan 40,2 51,6 ‐4,2 ‐7,1 46 ‐53,1y p g , , , , ,
Listrik, Gas dan Air Bersih
11,3 5.4 3,3 2,6 2,5 0,1
Bangunan 95 5 36 9 34 6 24 1 12 8 11 3Bangunan 95,5 36,9 34,6 24,1 12,8 11,3
Perdagangan, Hotel dan Restoran
440,5 246,9 128,3 65,2 71,4 ‐6,2
Pengangkutan & komunikasi
229,2 105,8 167,3 ‐44 15,9 ‐59,9
Keuangan, Persewaan 136,6 56,8 82,8 ‐3,9 15,1 ‐18,1% Jasa perusahaan
Jasa‐jasa 351,3 195,8 142,2 13,2 41,6 ‐28,4
Jumlah 1.698,9 1.219,5 565,2 ‐86,9 456,6 ‐542,5
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LOGO
Keterangan :Keterangan :G = regional economic growthS = Sumatera shareP P i l hiftP = Proporsional shiftD = Differential shift (RSE + AE)RSE = Regional shift effectgAE = Allocation effect
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LOGOLocation QuotientQ
Identifikasi sektor/komoditi basis yang memilikiIdentifikasi sektor/komoditi basis yang memiliki keunggulan komparatifKoefisien LQ berkisar dari 0 sampai dengan Q p gpositif tak terhingga
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LOGO
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LOGO
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LOGO
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LOGOKlassen Tipologyp gy
Alat analisis yang dapat digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi sektor, subsektor atau komoditas unggulan suatu daerahkomoditas unggulan suatu daerah
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LOGO
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LOGO
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LOGO Contoh
PDRB Provinsi NAD Atas Dasar Harga Konstan 2000 Menurut Lapangan Usaha, Tahun 2004-2007
(J t R i h)(Juta Rupiah)
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LOGO
Pangsa dan Pertumbuhan PDRB Provinsi NAD dan Nasional Atas Dasar Harga Konstan 2000 Menurut Lapangan Usaha, Tahun
2004-20072004-2007
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LOGO
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LOGO