dinamika spatial

Dinamika SpatialDinamika Spatial

PPS Ilmu Geografi 2007

Hidup dari lingkungan

Berburu dan bertani

Berdagang / barter

Berdagang / transaksi

benda berharga

(uang)

Export/ import

Perdagangan regional

baru

Apalagi yang akan datang ?

terkonvergnsi

Jaman imperialisme………….... Imperialisme gaya baru

globalisasi

Tata dunia baru

(metanasional)

Long Wave Cycles of InnovationLong Wave Cycles of Innovation

1785 1845 1900 1950 1990

1st Wave 2nd Wave 3rd Wave 4th Wave 5th Wave

Water powerTextilesIron

SteamRailSteel

ElectricityChemicalsInternal-combustionengine

PetrochemicalsElectronicsAviation

Digital networksSoftwareNew Media

60 years 55 years 50 years 40 years 30 years

Pace o

f in

novati

on

Kumulatif Sumbangan Moda Transportasi Kumulatif Sumbangan Moda Transportasi terhadap Peluang Ekonomisterhadap Peluang Ekonomis

KudaKapal Laut

Kapal Penyeberangan

Kereta Api

Jalan darat Udara

Telekomunikasi

1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050

Pelu

an

g E

kon

om

is

Revolusi Industrial Produksi Massal

Globalisasi

Sectors of the EconomySectors of the Economy

Primary

Secondary

Tertiary

Quaternary

Time

Per

cent

of

Wor

kfor

ce

Spatial dynamic systemsSpatial dynamic systems

f ( I (tn ))

. . .FF

f ( I (t) ) f ( I (t+2) )f ( I (t+1) )

Spatial dynamic systems simulates spatio-temporal processes in which the state of a location, on the Earth´s surface, changes over time, due to some physical phenomena.

tp - 20 tp - 10

tp

calibration calibrationtp + 10

ForecastForecast

Dynamic spatial modelsDynamic spatial models

fonte: Almeida et al (2003)

Spatial dynamic system elementsSpatial dynamic system elements

Transition RulesTransition Rules

FuzzyL(Clue)Expander(Dinâmica)

LocalMean (Riks)

ModelsModels

discretehybrid

continuous

DinâmicaRiks

Clue

Space representationSpace representation

NeighborhoodNeighborhood

Celli+1,,j

Celli,j

Celli+1,j+1

Celli,j+1

modelo celular

ob

j1o

bj2

obj1 obj2

1

0

0

1

Spatial dynamic system Spatial dynamic system elementselements

uniform proprieties regular structure

proximitry matrixnon stationary

Space-time modeling: issues Space-time modeling: issues for current methodsfor current methods

Look at change over time at several Look at change over time at several localitieslocalities

Look at change across space for Look at change across space for several moments in timeseveral moments in time

t1

t2

t3

Expansion Diffusion

t1

t2

t3

Relocation Diffusion

Combination of Expansion and Relocation

Batas funsional kota

Batas administrasi

Under-bounded Over-bounded

True-bounded


Alcalá

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Neol IINeol IFinalPaleo/Meso

Upper PaleoMiddle Paleo

temporal interval

pe

rce

nt

of

are

a s

urv

ey

ed

75th

90th

SII percentiles

Penaguila

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%



per

cen

t o

f ar

ea s

urv

eyed

75th

90th

SII percentiles

Muro

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%



pe

rce

nt

of

are

a s

urv

ey

ed

75th

90th

SII percentiles

Polop

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%



per

cen

t o

f ar

ea s

urv

eyed

75th

90th

SII percentiles


M. PaleoM. Paleo

U. PaleoU. Paleo

EpipaleoEpipaleo

Late NeolLate Neol

Early NeolEarly Neol


High resolution diachronic record in one or High resolution diachronic record in one or a few sitesa few sites unwarranted regional unwarranted regional generalization across variable spacegeneralization across variable spaceHigh resolution spatial record for a few High resolution spatial record for a few time periodstime periods past as a sequence of past as a sequence of snapshots with change happening invisibly snapshots with change happening invisibly between (or stepwise change)between (or stepwise change)Conceptualizing rich socioecological Conceptualizing rich socioecological variation across space and complex variation across space and complex dynamics through time desirable but dynamics through time desirable but difficult with current methodsdifficult with current methods

Future directions in space-time Future directions in space-time modelingmodeling

Goals for study of long-term dynamics of human Goals for study of long-term dynamics of human ecologyecologyHigh resolution modelsHigh resolution models– spatialspatial– chronologicalchronological

Link dynamically so that Link dynamically so that – state of modeled ecosystem at any given time (t) is in state of modeled ecosystem at any given time (t) is in

part a function of ecosystem at prior time (t-1) and part a function of ecosystem at prior time (t-1) and affects future state (t+1)affects future state (t+1)

– State of modeled ecosystem at any given locale is in State of modeled ecosystem at any given locale is in part a function of state in surrounding localespart a function of state in surrounding locales

Test against archaeo-ecological recordTest against archaeo-ecological record

Future directions in space-time Future directions in space-time modeling: an examplemodeling: an example

Mediterranean Landscape Mediterranean Landscape Dynamics ProjectDynamics Project

Project locations at opposite Project locations at opposite ends of Mediterranean Basinends of Mediterranean Basin– Encompasses wide range of Encompasses wide range of

ecological & social variationecological & social variation– Tracks initial spread of Tracks initial spread of

agriculture & replacement of agriculture & replacement of foraging systemsforaging systems

– Different trajectories to the Different trajectories to the appearance of social appearance of social complexity and urbanismcomplexity and urbanism

Dynamic space-time modelingDynamic space-time modeling

3 interlinked 3 interlinked modeling modeling environments in environments in GIS platformGIS platform– Potential landscape Potential landscape

modelmodel– Reference Reference

landscape landscape chronosequencechronosequence

– Agropastoral Agropastoral socioecology modelsocioecology model

Vegetationmodeling:

multi-yr. steps

Vegetationmodeling:

multi-yr. steps

Potential landscape model

Potential landscape model

Terrainmodeling:

multi-yr. steps

Terrainmodeling:

multi-yr. steps

Climatemodel

(temp&precip)

Climatemodel

(temp&precip)

Paleo-terrains(DEM’s)


Reference

landscape

chronoseq.

Reference

landscape

chronoseq.

Archeological data

Archeological data

Geologicaldata

Geologicaldata

Paleobotanicaldata

Paleobotanicaldata

Veg. edaphic parameters


Paleo-vegetation

Paleo-vegetation

Prehistoricsettlement& landuse


ModernDEM

ModernDEM

Agropastoral

socioecology

model

Agropastoral

socioecology

model

Settlement& landusemodeling


Agent ModelingAgent Modeling

Terrainmodeling:

multi-yr. steps

Terrainmodeling:

multi-yr. steps

Vegetationmodeling:

multi-yr. steps

Vegetationmodeling:

multi-yr. steps

Climatemodel

(temp&precip)

Climatemodel

(temp&precip)

Initial stateInitial state

Initial state& validation

at various stages

Initial state& validation

at various stages


Potential landscape model: surface Potential landscape model: surface processes and landcoverprocesses and landcover

Vegetationmodeling:

multi-yr. steps

Vegetationmodeling:

multi-yr. steps

Potential landscape

model

Potential landscape

model

Terrainmodeling:

multi-yr. steps

Terrainmodeling:

multi-yr. steps

Climatemodel

(temp&precip)

Climatemodel

(temp&precip)



Reference landscape chronoseq.

Reference landscape chronoseq.

Archeological data

Archeological data

Geologicaldata

Geologicaldata

Paleobotanicaldata

Paleobotanicaldata



Paleo-vegetation

Paleo-vegetation



ModernDEM

ModernDEM


Reference landscape chronosequence: Reference landscape chronosequence: surface processes and landcoversurface processes and landcover

SettlementEstablish

Shrink/growAbandonLocation

SettlementEstablish

Shrink/growAbandonLocation

LanduseLocation/extent

Cultivation (which crops)Pasture (which animals)

LanduseLocation/extent

Cultivation (which crops)Pasture (which animals)

DecisionAlgorithmsDecision

Algorithms

Information InputsTemp. extremes

Precip. amt & distTerrain characteristics

Current vegetation

Information InputsTemp. extremes

Precip. amt & distTerrain characteristics

Current vegetation

Settlement &landuse impacts

on terrain &vegetation

Settlement &landuse impacts

on terrain &vegetation



Human landuse: agent simulationHuman landuse: agent simulation


Climate surface processes & Climate surface processes & landcover agent simulationlandcover agent simulationLandscape socioecologyLandscape socioecology




Terrainmodeling:

multi-yr. steps

Terrainmodeling:

multi-yr. steps

Vegetationmodeling:

multi-yr. steps

Vegetationmodeling:

multi-yr. steps

Climatemodel

(temp&precip)

Climatemodel

(temp&precip)

Polop Valley Landuse IntensityM. Paleolithicto Neolithic II

Agropastoral socioecology

model

Agropastoral socioecology

model

Spatial DynamicSpatial Dynamic

Driven by :Driven by :

• Population Population

• Economic Economic activitiesactivities

• TechnologyTechnology

• etcetc

Materi Spatial DynamicMateri Spatial Dynamic

Space – timeSpace – time

Spatial changing dan changing Spatial changing dan changing overtimeovertime

Spatial ThinkingSpatial Thinking

System Dynamic (1): IntroSystem Dynamic (1): Intro

System Dynamic (2): LatihanSystem Dynamic (2): Latihan

Cases: Spatial Dynamic Cases: Spatial Dynamic

dinamika spatial

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