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    Strategic Voting Behavior:

    The Case of Turkey

    Betul AydoganResearch Assistant, Ege University

    Izmir, Turkey

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    What is Strategic Voting?

    ExplanationsWhy some behaviors deviate fromclassical models

    If a voter believes that voting for a party that is not themost preferred can make her attain the most favorableoutcome, she can cast a strategic vote.

    Sincere voter vs. Strategic voter

    Wasted vote theoremDuverger

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    Strategic Vote

    (1) a voter should vote not for the most preferred partyby comparing its chance of winning with other parties;

    (2) this action should be enforced in accordance withthe principle of maximization of expected utility.

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    Literature Review

    Henry Droop,1871.

    Duverger, 1954.Rise by the end of the 1980s :

    The rise of rational choice theory

    Methodological developments with new computer

    technologies

    Single member plurality systems in the US and Britain

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    Strategic voting in PR systems

    Duverger: there is no incentive for voters to defect fromfirst preferenceremoval or significantly reduction ofobstacles to gain representation.

    Cox: It becomes too complex for voters to conduct astrategy in multimember districts.

    Recent studies demonstrate that PR systems cancreate some similar motivations for voting strategically .

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    Strategic voting in PR systems

    Incentives that exist in proportional systems

    The willingness of voters to determine the form of futurecoalition governments. coalition preference vote

    Very low chance of winning representation for small parties.

    Electoral Threshold

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    Electoral Threshold in Turkey

    The highest national threshold in the world10 %

    According to Article 33 of Parliamentary Election Law,there is a formal threshold of 10 percent of valid votesat the national level in order to gain representation in

    the parliament.

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    Questions & Hypothesis

    Question 1: How does the electoral threshold affect

    voting behavior?

    Question 2: Is there correlation or causality between theelectoral threshold and strategic voting?

    Hypothesis:

    The higher the threshold is, the lower the expectedprobability that a small party might gain representation

    and, consequently, the higher rate of strategic vote and

    voters are more likely to desert weak parties to the

    benefit of larger ones.

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    Methodology

    A laboratory election experiment

    Establishing causalityRandom assignment

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    Control Group Experimental

    Group

    N 34 34

    Department InternationalRelations

    InternationalRelations

    Age 22 (55,8%) 22 (55,8%)

    Location Metropolitan

    (58,8 %)

    Metropolitan

    (64,7 %)

    Geographical Region Aegean (44,11 %) Aegean (55,8%)

    How much do you

    remember the results of

    the general elections in

    2011?(1 to 5)

    3 (43,75 %) 3 (41,17 %)

    What was your primary

    source of information to

    get the electoral results?

    TV (31, 91 %) TV (32,25 %)

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    Control Group Experimental Group

    Did you vote for the

    general elections in2011?

    Yes (88,23 %) Yes (85,29 %)

    What was your

    purpose for voting?

    National responsibility

    and duty (33,33 %)

    National responsibility

    and duty (31,03 %)

    How would you defineyour political stand? Social Democrat(23,52 %) Social Democrat(32,35 %)

    Are you a member of

    any political

    group/party/associatio

    n?

    No (85,29 %) No (76,47 %)

    How frequently do you

    follow daily news?

    Every day (44,11 %) Every day (50 %)

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    Control Group Experimental

    Group

    Electoral threshold should be

    totally abolished.

    Totally agree

    (35 %)

    Totally agree

    (29 %)Electoral threshold is a necessity

    for political stability.

    Partially agree

    (29 %)

    Partially agree

    (41 %)

    One party majority is better than

    coalition governments.

    Partially disagree

    (44 %)

    Partially disagree

    (35 %)All political views should be fairly

    represented in the parliament.

    Totally agree

    (63 %)

    Totally agree

    (67 %)

    Small party voters should vote fora major party that has close

    political stand and will pass the

    electoral threshold.

    Totally disagree(50 %)

    Totally disagree(52 %)

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    Treatment

    You are supporting the Z party. According to polls

    results, Z party will get 7% of total vote in the next

    elections. Would you vote for Z party?

    For Control group: Electoral Threshold 10%

    For Experimental Group: Electoral Threshold is 5 %.

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    Results

    Yes No

    Control Group

    (Threshold = 10%)

    76,47 % 23,52 %

    Experimental

    Group

    (Threshold = 5%)

    94,11 % 5,88 %

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    Concluding Points

    The voting experiment worked!

    The higher the threshold, the higher rate ofstrategic vote.

    More research needed on what other drives forstrategic voting in the PR systems.

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    Thank you for your attention.