betul aydogan_ieu3
TRANSCRIPT
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Strategic Voting Behavior:
The Case of Turkey
Betul AydoganResearch Assistant, Ege University
Izmir, Turkey
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What is Strategic Voting?
ExplanationsWhy some behaviors deviate fromclassical models
If a voter believes that voting for a party that is not themost preferred can make her attain the most favorableoutcome, she can cast a strategic vote.
Sincere voter vs. Strategic voter
Wasted vote theoremDuverger
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Strategic Vote
(1) a voter should vote not for the most preferred partyby comparing its chance of winning with other parties;
(2) this action should be enforced in accordance withthe principle of maximization of expected utility.
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Literature Review
Henry Droop,1871.
Duverger, 1954.Rise by the end of the 1980s :
The rise of rational choice theory
Methodological developments with new computer
technologies
Single member plurality systems in the US and Britain
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Strategic voting in PR systems
Duverger: there is no incentive for voters to defect fromfirst preferenceremoval or significantly reduction ofobstacles to gain representation.
Cox: It becomes too complex for voters to conduct astrategy in multimember districts.
Recent studies demonstrate that PR systems cancreate some similar motivations for voting strategically .
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Strategic voting in PR systems
Incentives that exist in proportional systems
The willingness of voters to determine the form of futurecoalition governments. coalition preference vote
Very low chance of winning representation for small parties.
Electoral Threshold
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Electoral Threshold in Turkey
The highest national threshold in the world10 %
According to Article 33 of Parliamentary Election Law,there is a formal threshold of 10 percent of valid votesat the national level in order to gain representation in
the parliament.
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Questions & Hypothesis
Question 1: How does the electoral threshold affect
voting behavior?
Question 2: Is there correlation or causality between theelectoral threshold and strategic voting?
Hypothesis:
The higher the threshold is, the lower the expectedprobability that a small party might gain representation
and, consequently, the higher rate of strategic vote and
voters are more likely to desert weak parties to the
benefit of larger ones.
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Methodology
A laboratory election experiment
Establishing causalityRandom assignment
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Control Group Experimental
Group
N 34 34
Department InternationalRelations
InternationalRelations
Age 22 (55,8%) 22 (55,8%)
Location Metropolitan
(58,8 %)
Metropolitan
(64,7 %)
Geographical Region Aegean (44,11 %) Aegean (55,8%)
How much do you
remember the results of
the general elections in
2011?(1 to 5)
3 (43,75 %) 3 (41,17 %)
What was your primary
source of information to
get the electoral results?
TV (31, 91 %) TV (32,25 %)
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Control Group Experimental Group
Did you vote for the
general elections in2011?
Yes (88,23 %) Yes (85,29 %)
What was your
purpose for voting?
National responsibility
and duty (33,33 %)
National responsibility
and duty (31,03 %)
How would you defineyour political stand? Social Democrat(23,52 %) Social Democrat(32,35 %)
Are you a member of
any political
group/party/associatio
n?
No (85,29 %) No (76,47 %)
How frequently do you
follow daily news?
Every day (44,11 %) Every day (50 %)
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Control Group Experimental
Group
Electoral threshold should be
totally abolished.
Totally agree
(35 %)
Totally agree
(29 %)Electoral threshold is a necessity
for political stability.
Partially agree
(29 %)
Partially agree
(41 %)
One party majority is better than
coalition governments.
Partially disagree
(44 %)
Partially disagree
(35 %)All political views should be fairly
represented in the parliament.
Totally agree
(63 %)
Totally agree
(67 %)
Small party voters should vote fora major party that has close
political stand and will pass the
electoral threshold.
Totally disagree(50 %)
Totally disagree(52 %)
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Treatment
You are supporting the Z party. According to polls
results, Z party will get 7% of total vote in the next
elections. Would you vote for Z party?
For Control group: Electoral Threshold 10%
For Experimental Group: Electoral Threshold is 5 %.
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Results
Yes No
Control Group
(Threshold = 10%)
76,47 % 23,52 %
Experimental
Group
(Threshold = 5%)
94,11 % 5,88 %
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Concluding Points
The voting experiment worked!
The higher the threshold, the higher rate ofstrategic vote.
More research needed on what other drives forstrategic voting in the PR systems.
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Thank you for your attention.