analisis karakteristik dan potensi serta kebutuhan daerah

7/26/2019 Analisis Karakteristik Dan Potensi Serta Kebutuhan Daerah

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ANALISIS KARAKTERISTIK

DAN POTENSI SERTAKEBUTUHAN DAERAH

Drs. Ahmad Jamli, M.A.


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Potensi dan

KebutuhanDaerah

SDM

SDA

Pemanfaatan

Financing

S & DElasticityICORS(saving)

Tools


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LOGO Indikator Ekonomi Daerah

Real GDRP and ItsComponents

ConsumptionGoodsSevice

Key Indicator Retail SalesConsumer installment creditPersonal income and spendingEmployment reportNew claims for unemployment

insuranceConsumer confidence andsentiment surveysADP National EmploymentReportReal earningsAuto salesChain store sales


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BusinessFixed

Investment

Nonresidential

-Industrial production

-Capacity utilization

-Orders for durablegoods

-ISM surveys

-Factory orders

-Manufacturers

shipments, inventories,and others

Residential

-Housing starts

-New single-family homesales

-Existing home sales

-MBA mortgageapplications

-MBA survey on homebuilding

Key Indicator


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Change in businessinventories

Government Spending

Net exports

Manufacturing and tradeinventories

Construction spendingAPBD

International tradeCurrent account balance

Key Indicators


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Signs of Price Pressures

Inflation

Consumer price index

Producer price indexEmployment cost indexNon-farm productivityUnit labor cost

Import and export pricesEmployer cost foremployee compensation

Key Indicators


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Attributes of Economic Indicator

Accuracy

Thebusiness

cycle stage

Degree ofinterest

Predictiveability

Timelinesfor

indicator


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LOGOCOUNTRY PFOFIL INDONESIA 2010

People The economy

Population 228,1 juta GDP Rp 3.957 triliunPopulation per km2 119,8 GDP $433 milyar

Average annual growth in

population 2010-15

0,98% Average annual growth in real

GDP 2002-07

6,1%

Population under 15 27% GDP per head $1,290

Population over 60 8,8% GDP per head in ppp (USA = 100) 8,1

No. of men per 100 women 100 Economic freedom index 53,4

HDI 72,6 Origins of GDP % of total

Life expentacy : men 68,7 tahun Agriculture 13,7

women 72,7 tahun Industry, of which : manufacturing 46,8

27,1

Adult literacy 92% services 39,5

Fertility rate (per woman) 2 Components of GDP % of total

Urban population 50,4% Private consumption 63,6

Crude birth rate 21 Public consumption 8,3

Crude death rate 6,3 Investment 24,9

Exports 29,4Im orts -25,4


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Structure of employment Inflation and finance

% of total Consumer price inflation 2008 10,3%

Agriculture 45 Average annual inflation 9,3%

Industry 18 Money market rate, 2008 8,48%services 37 Average annual increase 2002-

07

%of labour

force

Narrow money (M1) 19,8%

unmployed 9,1 Broad money 13,4%

Average annual rate 1995-2007 7,4 Exchange rate

Energy End 2008

m TOE Rp per $ 10.950

Total output 307,7 Rp per SDR 16.866Total consumption 179,1 Rp per 15.242

Consumption per head, kg oil

eqiuvalent

803

Net energy imports as % of

energy use

-72


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LOGOTrade

Principal export Principal imports

$ bn fob $ bn cif

Garment & textiles 9,8 Intermediate goods 57,4

Natural gas 9,8 Capital goods 11,2

Petroleum & products 9,2 Consumer goods 5,9

Total include others 114,1 Total include others 74,5

Main export

destination

Main origin of

imports

% of total % of totalJapan 20,6 Singapore 43,5

United States 12,1 China 18,8

Singapore 11,7 Japan 13,2

China 9,7 South Korea 8,6


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LOGOBalance of payment,

reserves and debt,

$bn

Visible exports fob 118 Changes in reserves 14,3

Visible imports fob -82,3 Level of reserves end Dec. 56,9

Trade balance 32,8 No. months of import cover 5,3

Invisibles inflows 15,9 Official gold holdings, m oz 2,4

Invisibles outflows -43,3 Foreign debt 140,8

Net transfers 4,9 -as % of GDP 43

Current accountbalances

-as % of GDP

10,32,4

-as % of total export 120

Capital balance 3,5 Debt service ratio 11

Overral balance 12,7

S


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LOGOHealth and

education

Society

Health spending, %

GDP

2,5 No. of households 60,6m

Doctors per 100population

0,1 Average number per household 3,8

Hospital beds per 100

population

0,6 Marriages per 100 population 7

Improved-water

source acces, %

ofpopulation

77 Divorces per 1000 population 0,8

Education spending,

% of GDP

3,5 Cost of living, Feb. 2009

New York = 100

62

Enrolment, % primary 121 Olours TVs per 100 households 82,8

secondary

73 Telephone lines per 100 pop. 7,7

tertiary Mobile telephone subscribers

per 100 pop.

35,3

Computers per 100 pop 2


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PENGERTIAN DAERAH

Daerah

homogen

Daerah

perencanaan

atau

administrasi

Daerah nodal

Ph i l E i


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LOGO Phase in Local EconomicDevelopment

Phase I data gathering and analysis

Phase II selecting local development strategy

Phase III selecting local development project

Phase IV building acion plansPhase V specifying project details

Phase VI overall development plan preparation and

implementation


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Population

Economic

structure

Communityfactors

Physical/loca-tional

conditions

Employment

SocioeconomicBase Analysis

INFORMASI UNTUK MENGANALISIS

POTENSI DAERAH


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LOGOTypes of Data Collection and Analysis

Use existing data record held by local planningor service agencies

Survey

Use of aggregate quantitative analysis


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LOGOContoh Identifikasi Permasalahan dalam

Pengembangan Potensi Daerah

Kabupaten Belu sebagai salah satu kabupaten di provinsi NTTmemiliki potensi yang cukup besar, seperti pada sektor pertanian, setorpeternakan, dan sektor lain.Berdasarkan hasl interview, identifikasi permasalahan pokok yangdihadapi dalam pengembangan potensi daerah yaitu :


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LOGO Regional and Local QuantitativeMethods

Shift share

analysis

KlassenTipology

LocationQuotients

(LQ)

ICOR


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ICOR

1. S merupakan proporsi (s atau MPS) dari Y:

S = s.Y (i)

2. I perubahan stok modal (K):

I = K (ii)

K

3. ICOR = ------ atau K = ICOR. Y (iia)

Y

4. S = I (iii)

5. S = s.Y = ICOR. Y = K = I

Y/Y = s/ICOR (iv)


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LOGOTabel

PDB Per Kapita dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi IndonesiaAtas Dasar Harga Konstan 2000 Tahun 2000 2010

T b l


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LOGOTabel

Perkembangan Investasi Indonesia Tahun 2000 2010Atas Harga Konstan

Tahun 2000


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Shift Share Analysis

Menganalisis perubahan struktur perekonomiandaerah terhadap negara

Bermanfaat untuk mengidentifikasi keunggulan

daerah dan menganalisis sektor atau industri yangmenjadi basis perekonomian daerah

Menyediakan kinerja perek lokal melalui

1. Economic growth2. The proportional shift

3. The differential shift


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LOGO Shift Share

pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah :

(1) Dij Dij = = Nij + Mij + Cij

Pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional :

(2) Nij = = Eij X rn

Pengaruh bauran industri: :(3) Mij = = Eij ( rinrn )

Pengaruh keunggulan kompetitif :

(4) Cij = = Eij ( ( rij rin ) )

Eij =kesempatan kerja di di sektor i daerah j

Ein = kesempatan kerja di sektor i nasional

rij adalah adalah laju pertumbuhan sektor I di daerah j

rin adalah laju pertumbuhan sektor i nasional

rn adalah la u ertumbuhan ekonomi nasional


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Contoh Penerapan Analisis Shift

Share

Analisis Shift Share Sektor sektor Ekonomi Propinsi


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Lapangan Usaha G S P D RSE AE

pertanian 705,4 482,1 59,3 164 105 59

Pertambangan &

Penggalian

-311 38,2 -48,3 -301 146,3 -447,2

Industry pengolahan 40,2 51,6 -4,2 -7,1 46 -53,1

Listrik, Gas dan AirBersih

11,3 5.4 3,3 2,6 2,5 0,1

Bangunan 95,5 36,9 34,6 24,1 12,8 11,3

Perdagangan, Hotel

dan Restoran

440,5 246,9 128,3 65,2 71,4 -6,2

Pengangkutan &

komunikasi

229,2 105,8 167,3 -44 15,9 -59,9

Keuangan, Persewaan

% Jasa perusahaan

136,6 56,8 82,8 -3,9 15,1 -18,1

Jasa-jasa 351,3 195,8 142,2 13,2 41,6 -28,4

Jumlah 1.698 9 1.219 5 565 2 -86 9 456 6 -542 5

Analisis Shift Share Sektor-sektor Ekonomi PropinsiBengkulu terhadap Sumatera tahun 2002-2007 (Milyar

Rupiah)


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Keterangan :G = regional economic growthS = Sumatera shareP = Proporsional shiftD = Differential shift (RSE + AE)RSE = Regional shift effect

AE = Allocation effect


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Location Quotient

Identifikasi sektor/komoditi basis yang memilikikeunggulan komparatif

Koefisien LQ berkisar dari 0 sampai dengan

positif tak terhingga


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Klassen Tipology

Alat analisis yang dapat digunakan untukmengidentifikasi sektor, subsektor ataukomoditas unggulan suatu daerah


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Contoh


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LOGO Contoh

PDRB Provinsi NAD Atas Dasar Harga Konstan 2000

Menurut Lapangan Usaha, Tahun 2004-2007(Juta Rupiah)


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Pangsa dan Pertumbuhan PDRB Provinsi NAD dan Nasional Atas

Dasar Harga Konstan 2000 Menurut Lapangan Usaha, Tahun2004-2007


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