proceeding of stie widya gama lumajang
Post on 30-Oct-2021
6 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
i
Proceeding of STIE Widya Gama Lumajang
Auditorium Semeru, 31 Agustus 2019
Prosiding Seminar Nasional dan Call For Paper "Indonesian Conference On Social Science
and Humanities”
ii
KATA PENGANTAR
Assalamu’alaikum Wr. Wb.
Alhamdulillahirabbil’alamin. Segala puji dan syukur kami panjatkan ke hadirat Allah SWT yang
telah melimpahkan rahmat dan hidayah-Nya sehingga prosiding ini dapat terselesaikan dengan baik. Prosiding ini berisi kumpulan makalah dari berbagai daerah di Indonesia yang telah dipresentasikan dan didiskusikan dalam Progress Conference and Call For Paper yang diadakan oleh STIE Widya Gama Lumajang pada Sabtu, 31 Agustus 2019 dengan Seminar yang mengangkat tema " Indonesian Conference On Social Science and Humanities”.
Prosiding ini disusun untuk mendokumentasikan gagasan dan hasil penelitian terkait isu-isu keilmuan social science dan humanities. Selain itu, diharapkan prosiding ini dapat memberikan wawasan tentang perkembangan keilmuan di bidang ekonomi,akuntansi, bisnis dan social sebagai upaya-upaya yang terus dilakukan demi terwujudnya pendidikan berkemajuan. Dengan demikian, seluruh pihak yang terlibat dalam dunia pendidikan dapat terus termotivasi dan bersinergi untuk berperan aktif membangun pendidikan Indonesia.
Dalam penyelesaian prosiding ini, kami menyadari bahwa dalam proses penyelesaiaannya tidak terlepas dari bantuan berbagai pihak. Untuk itu pada kesempatan ini panitia menyampaikan ucapan terima kasih dan memberikan penghargaan setinggi-tingginya, kepada :
1. Ketua STIE Widya Gama Lumajang Ratna Wijayanti Daniar Paramita, S.E., M.M yang telah memberikan dukungan dan memfasilitasi dalam kegiatan ini.
2. Seluruh pembicara tamu, Dr Taufiqullah, M.Hum 3. Bapak/Ibu seluruh dosen, guru dan pejabat instansi penyumbang artikel hasil penelitian
dan pemikiran ilmiahnya dalam kegiatan seminar ini. 4. Bapak/Ibu/Mahasiswa seluruh panitia yang telah meluangkan waktu, tenaga, serta
pemikiran demi kesuksesan acara ini. Kami menyadari bahwa prosiding ini tentu saja tidak luput dari kekurangan, untuk itu segala
saran dan kritik kami harapkan demi perbaikan prosiding pada terbitan tahun yang akan datang. Akhirnya kami berharap prosiding ini dapat bermanfaat bagi seluruh pihak terkait.
Wassalamualaikum Wr. Wb.
Lumajang, 31 Agustus 2019 Ketua Panitia Progress Conference
Noviansyah Rizal, S.E., M.M., Ak., CA
Prosiding Seminar Nasional dan Call For Paper "Indonesian Conference On Social Science
and Humanities”
iii
Pembicara 1 Dr.Taufiqullah, M.Hum
Dosen FKIP UPS dan Reviewer Penelitian Bersertifikasi ISO 17024
Penyelenggara Ratna Wijayanti Daniar Paramita, S.E., M.M.
Ketua STIE Widya Gama Lumajang
Prosiding Seminar Nasional dan Call For Paper "Indonesian Conference On Social Science
and Humanities”
viii
Susunan Redaksi
Progress Conference and Call For Paper
Chief Editor Fetri Setyo Liyundira - STIE Widya Gama Lumajang
Editorial Team
Deni Juliasari – STIE Widya Gama Lumajang Widi Listiyas Rini – STIE Widya Gama Lumajang
Editorial Board
Noviansyah Rizal – STIE Widya Gama Lumajang Khoirul Ifa – STIE Mandala Lumajang
Andi Mursidi – STKIP Singkawang
Reviewer Meithiana Indrasari – Universitas Dr. Soetomo
Wahyuning Murniati – STIE Widya Gama Lumajang Moh. Hudi Setyobakti – STIE Widya Gama Lumajang
Jesi Irwanto – STIE Widya Gama Lumajang Anisatul Fauziyah – STIE Widya Gama Lumajang
Prosiding Seminar Nasional dan Call For Paper "Indonesian Conference On Social Science
and Humanities”
viii
Daftar Isi
Progress Conference And Call For Paper
Cover ……………………………………………………………………………………………..…………………… I
Kata Pengantar ………………………………………………………………………………………………………. II
Pembicara Seminar Nasional ……………………………………………………………………………………… III
Susunan Redaksi……………………………………………………………………………………………………. IV
Daftar Isi………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. V
TB-00002 Moh. Hudi Setyobakti, Wahyuning Murniati
Dimensions of Service Quality in Society Satisfaction: a Study of Village Government in Lumajang Regency
1-7
TB-00004 Naimah Naimah, Ratnaningsih Ratnaningsih, Ning Mukti Indrayani
Revitalization Efforts And Re-Creation Through The Arts Cultural Partners Lumajang Cio Indonesian Arts Culture
8-15
TB-00006 Naimah Naimah, Soesilo Soesilo
District Government Responsibility of Lumajang In Efforts To Achieve Securitysnacks Children In School
16-22
TB-00008 Shanti Akhiriani, Naimah Naimah
PKM Snack BAPER: Efforts To Increase The Economic Independence Of Yatim-Dhuafa Guardians In The Rpi Lumajang Foundation
23-32
TB-00009 Riza Bahtiar Sulistyan, Emmy Ermawati
Retention Management Approaches for Encouraging Satisfaction and Commitment to Retaining Employees
33-43
TB-00010 Neny Tri Indrianasari, Khoirul Ifa
o Risk Profile Analysis, Earnings and Capital Assessment Banking Soundness
44-54
TB-00011 Nawangsih Nawangsih, Kurniawan Yunus, Khoirul Ifa
Decision Making: Strategy In Choosing Coffee Shops
55-61
TB-00012 Muhamad Taufiq, Mimin Yatminiwati
Analysis Of Village Financial Management Based On Regulation Of The Minister Of Home Affairs No. 113, 2014
62-67
TB-00013 Fauziyah Fauziyah, Muhammad Rijalus Sholihin
E-Commerce Organization Account Analysis As An Effort To Boost The Sales Volume Of UMKM Products
68-78
TB-00014 Khoirul Ifa, Neny Tri Indrianasari, Nawangsih Nawangsih
Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in ASEAN 5
79-90
TB-00015 Noviansyah Rizal, Mimin Yatminiwati
Green Accounting Disclosures In Efforts To Improve Environmental Performance And Financial Performance
91-95
TB-00016 Abdul Majid, M. Wimbo Wiyono, Agus Salim
Influence Profitability and Gain Flattening Against Ownership Structure(On Mining Companies Listed on BEI Year 2015-2017)
96-102
TB-00017 Ajeng Khuril Aini, Sochib Sochib, Mimin Yatminiwati
Effect of Dividend Policy, Investment Decisions, And Against Company Size Value Manufacturing Company in Indonesia Stock Exchange
103-109
TB-00018
Anita Khotiningrum, Noviansyah Rizal, M. Yahdi
Treatment, Presentation, and Disclosure Of Virtue Of Funds In The District Lumajang Baznas
110-114
Prosiding Seminar Nasional dan Call For Paper "Indonesian Conference On Social Science
and Humanities”
viii
TB-00019
Wulan Ayu Ndari, Noviansyah Rizal
Optimization Of Waste Collection Levy To Improve District PAD Lumajang
115-120
TB-00020 Ayus Qomariyah
Effect Of Sanctions Against Taxes And Tax Amnesty Behavior Of The Individual Taxpayer(Study In KP2KP Lumajang)
121-127
TB-00021 Dimas Bagus Prasetyo
As the Budget Control Production Costs At Mustika Karya Jaya Sakti CV
128-141
TB-00022 Dewi Cahyani Syaputri
Operating Activities Cash Flow Effect on The Performance Of The Market(Study In Industrial Goods Manufacturing Sector Consumption Listed in BEI 2016-2017)
142-151
TB-00023 Choirotul Laili, Ratna Wijayanti Daniar Paramita
Effect of Its Size, Growth And Profitability of Company Capital Structure of Listed Companies In BEI Year 2015-2017
152-157
TB-00024 Dedik Prasetyo, Emmy Ermawati, Neny Tri Indrianasari
Calculation of Production Cost Analysis Using Full Costing to Set Price on Flower UD Jaya
158-164
TB-00025 Deny Arif Eka Putra
Effect of Third Party Funds, CAR, LDR and NPL on Performance The Banking Companies Listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX)
165-173
TB-00026 Dian Eka Puspita, Noviansyah Rizal, Moh. Hudi Setyobakti
Evaluation Of Use Of Application SISKEUDES (Financial System Desa) Quality Improvement Efforts In Village Year 2018 Financial Accountability(A Case Study Of Rural Nogosari Rowokangkung Subdistrict Lumajang)
174-177
TB-00027 Rini Dina Abna, Wimbo Wiyono, Ratna Wijayanti Daniar Paramita
Analysis Of Application Of Target Costing Assessment Of Efficiency As A Tool Of Production in UD Kembang Jaya
178-185
TB-00028 Fenny Eka Ellyta Sari, Wimbo Wiyono, Agus Salim
Influence Profitability, Liquidity Against Timeliness of Financial Reporting In Manufacturing Vendor Listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange
186-191
TB-00029 Ferric Yuanggi, Wimbo Wiyono, Emmy Ermawati
Room Rental Price Determination Method Using Activity Based Costing System In Lumajang Hotel Gajah Mada
192-196
TB-00030 Grima Eka Wahyuningtias
Payroll Accounting System Application Analysis And Wages In Sarana CV Food
197-202
TB-00031 Icha Dwi Erlita
Perception, Presentation and Disclosure of Non-Halal Fund Alms Houses Lumajang in East Java
203-205
TB-00032 Ilfi Roudotul Jannah
Accounting Information System Credit To Customers Barupada Jalin Matra District Village Sentul Sumbersuko Lumajang
206-209
TB-00033 Imro'atus Sholihah, M. Yahdi, Moh. Hudi Setyobakti
Analysis Of Financial Management Accountability Village(Case Study Bodang Village Of Padang District Lumajang)
210-215
Prosiding Seminar Nasional dan Call For Paper "Indonesian Conference On Social Science
and Humanities”
viii
TB-00034 Nani Ramadhani Nurhidayati, Ratna Wijayanti Daniar Paramita, Muchamad Taufiq
Influence Policy Loans, Investment Policy And Dividend Policy On Value Of Companies Listed In Indonesia Stock Exchange In 206 - 2017
216-222
TB-00035 Ade Mahendra, Riza Bahtiar Sulistyan, Anisatul Fauziah
Influence of Personality and Learning Entrepreneurship Student Entrepreneur Of Interest STIE Widya Gama Lumajang
210-218
TB-00036 Dwi Agustin Asmara, Nawangsih Nawangsih, Ninik Lukiana
Marketing Mix Effect On Consumer Decision To Choose Pegadaian Shari'a(Case Study On Customer Pt Pawnshop Sharia Branch Jember)
219-230
TB-00037 Akhmad Dhimas Prayogo, Hartono Hartono, Riza Bahtiar Sulistyan
Role Analysis Work Motivation, Work Discipline and Performance Against Teacher Training at SMP Negeri 2 Klakah
231-240
TB-00038 Alfian Arif Rizaldy, Noer Aisha Balian
Effect Of Leadership Style, Rotation Work And Work Environment On The Performance Of Employees In District Bappeda Lumajang
241-250
TB-00039 Andiyanto Andiyanto, M. Ato'illah, Anisatul Fauziah
Price And Brand Image Analysis Of Interest In Buying Re Madjank Store Brand Products
251-254
TB-00040 Anisa Arifianda, Nawangsih Nawangsih, Jessi Irwanto
Effect of Discipline, Work Stress, And Compensation Against Employee Performance At Sumbersari Puskesmas Subdistrict Lumajang Rowokangkung
255-260
TB-00041 Arif Rakhman Hakim, Fauzan Muttaqien, Kusnanto Darmawan
Impact of Transformational Leadership, Motivation And Performance Against Employee Compensation Office of Population and Civil Registration Lumajang
261-270
TB-00042 Bidin Abdillah, Ainun Jariah, M. Taufik
Role of People, Process, Physical Evidance Rice Warehouse Customer Satisfaction UD. Two Men Lumajang
271-276
TB-00043 Diah Anggraeni Prahesti, Tri Palupi Robustin, Hartono Hartono
Effect of Product Attribute, Satisfaction and Trust in Customer Loyalty Oriflame products(Case Study at STIE student Widya Gama Lumajang)
277-283
TB-00044 Dibyo Erfanto, Hesti Budiwati, Kasno Kasno
Competence and Motivation Influence on Performance of State Vocational Teachers Senduro In Lumajang
284-289
TB-00045 Eko Romadhoni Arisona, M. Taufik, Jesi Irwanto
Relations Service Quality, price, and location on Customer Loyalty(Studies in Silk Screen Printing Mainstay Tekung, Lumajang)
290-295
TB-00046 Eva Yulianti, M. Taufik, Hesti Budiwati
The Effect Of Compensation And Competence On Employee Performance(Case Study Of PT. Serbuk Jaya Abadi In Kebon Arang District, Lumajang District)
296-302
TB-00047 Fionaris Tilasenda, Hesti Budiwati, Anisatul Fauziah
The Effect Of Celebrity Endorse And Brand Images On Purchase Decisions(Case Study On Private College Students In Oppo Handphone Buyers)
303-307
TB-00048 Heru Mahendra, M. Taufik, Noer Aisyah Barlian
Analysis Of The Effect Of Promotion, Price, And Satisfaction On Consumer Loyalty Cv. Andaku In Lumajang District
308-312
Prosiding Seminar Nasional dan Call For Paper "Indonesian Conference On Social Science
and Humanities”
viii
TB-00049
Imam Ghozali, Ainun Jariah, Jesi Irwanto
Role of Product Innovation, Quality of Service and Promotion of influence on purchase decision on Omahmu Cafe Lumajang
313-320
TB-00050 Intan Cahyaning Diniya, Zainul Hidayat, Tri Palupi Robustin
Effect Of Price And Quality Products On The Decision To Purchase Products In Paris Sophie Lumajang(Case Study On The Students STIE Widya Lumajang Gama)
321-326
TB-00051 Jannat Firdaus, Riza Bahtiar Sulistyan, Kasno Kasno
Creating Employee Satisfaction Through Support Organizations(Case Study PT. Wana Lights Nugraha Senduro Lumajang)
327-332
TB-00052 Khoirul Anwar, Hartono Hartono, Fauzan Muttaqien
Implementation of Promotion and Quality Services To Attract Consumer Interests Buy Coffee Shops City Subdistrict Lumajang
333-339
TB-00053 Linda Ayu Utami Ningdita, Sukma Irdiana, Anisatul Fauziah
Performance Optimization Of Human Resources In The Department Of Population And Civil Registry District Lumajang
340-346
TB-00054 Mahirotul Lailiyah, Sukma Irdiana, Jesi Irwanto
Impact Car Free Day For Entrepreneurship Interests Street Vendors In Square Lumajang
347-354
TB-00055 Nurul Novika Hasanah, Sukma Irdiana, Ninik Lukiana
Formation Of Portfolio Analysis Optimal Model With A Single Index(Studies in IDX30 Index Period 2016-2018)
355-364
TB-00056 Zamrotul Hasanah, Riza Bahtiar Sulistyan, Ainun Jariah
Increasing Organizational Performance Through Leadership Transfromasional In Tempeh District Office Lumajang
366-371
TB-00057 Nuril Zuhriyah
Direct Selling and Promotion Strategies in Improving Sales Spare Parts and spare parts Motor UD Wodjo Motor Lumajang
372-379
TB-00058 Sochib Sochib, Moh. Hudi Setyobakti
Influence of Earnings Management on Stock Prices with Good Corporate Governance as an Intervening Variable
380-390
E-ISSN : 2622-304X, P-ISSN : 2622-3031 Available online at:
http://proceedings.stiewidyagamalumajang.ac.id/index.php/progress
Progress Conference Volume 2 Number 2, August 2019 | 79
Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in ASEAN 5 Khoirul Ifa
1, Neny Tri Indrianasari
2, Nawangsih
3
Departement of Accounting, STIE Widya Gama Lumajang12
Departement of Management, STIE Widya Gama Lumajang2
khoirul.ifa@gmail.com
Abstract
In ASEAN 5 countries namely Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia have
almost the same culture, in terms of social and economic aspects, the 5 countries have links between
one country and another, so it is possible that the flow of foreign investment has a close relationship
with economic growth. This study aims to determine the relationship between Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) and Economic Growth in ASEAN 5 Periods 1986-2017. This research is a two-
way relationship research between the independent variable and the dependent variable that are
reciprocal. The type of data used is the 1981-2017 time series data. Sources of data obtained from
the World Bank. Data analysis technique uses Granger Causality analysis to see the 2-way
relationship, and VAR (Vector Auto Regression) analysis by looking at the implus response factor
for non-stationary data using VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) analysis. The results of the
study state that based on the Granger Causality test there is no relationship between FDI and GDP
and vice versa between GDP and FDI. Based on the VECM test there is a relationship between FDI
and GDP.
Keywords: FDI, Economic Growth, VAR and VECM
INTRODUCTION
Economic growth is believed to be a measure of the success of a country, because it is a process of
increasing output of goods and services that will increase national income. Economic growth is
supported by an increase in various other variables such as investment and international trade.
The factors driving economic growth according to Todaro, 2003 are manifested in three main
components, first, capital accumulation which includes all forms and types of new investments that
are invested in land, physical equipment, and human capital. Second, population growth will further
increase the number of the workforce. Thirdly technological advances which in the simplest sense
occur because of the discovery of new ways or improvements to old ways. In this case investment is
one of the drivers of economic growth, the statement is also supported by Lamsiraroj and
Ulubasoglu, 2015 which shows there is a positive influence between FDI and economic growth in
140 countries in the period 1970-2009, the most powerful influence is in developing countries,
whereas according to Almfraji and Almsafir, 2014 that in the long run there is a relationship
between FDI and Economic Growth in the State of Qatar, in addition there is a positive effect of
FDI on economic growth in the country of Qatar.
In essence, the average economic growth varies from country to country. In several Asian countries,
such as China, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan, the average real income of the
population has increased by around 6% per year in the last fifty years, (Mankiw, 2014: 39). In
countries that are members of ASEAN the rate of economic growth differs between countries even
though they are almost culturally similar.
E-ISSN : 2622-304X, P-ISSN : 2622-3031 Available online at:
http://proceedings.stiewidyagamalumajang.ac.id/index.php/progress
Progress Conference Volume 2 Number 2, August 2019 | 80
Figure 1.1. Economic Growth in 6 ASEAN Countries Quarter I-III 2017
Source: Tradingeconomics, 2017
A number of ASEAN countries experienced accelerated economic growth throughout 2017. In the
third quarter the economies of Vietnam and the Philippines accelerated to beat China, but the
Indonesian economy stagnated in the first, second and third quarters.
Vietnam's economic growth reached 7.46% in the third quarter, bigger in the first quarter and
second quarter of 5.15% and 6.28%, compared to other ASEAN countries the highest economic
growth in Vietnam, the condition is caused by the main export factors from industry foreign
property.
Economic growth supported by investment is considered to increase the productivity of a country or
region. Investment is the purchase of goods that will later be used to produce more goods and
services (Mankiw, 2006: 12). FDI is also a supporter of a country's economic growth. There is
granger causality between FDI and GDP (Tekin, 2012; Lamsiraroj and Ulubasoglu, 2015; Ibrahiem,
2015; Khatun and Ahamad, 2015; Khatun and Ahamad, 2015; Abdouli and Hammami, 2016).
Based on the introduction above, the formulation of the problem of this research is whether there is
a relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Economic Growth (GDP) and vice
versa whether there is a relationship between Economic Growth (GDP) and Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) in ASEAN 5 period 1981 -2017?
Based on the background and the formulation of the problem, the purpose of this study is to
determine the relationship between variables FDI and Economic Growth and vice versa
The urgency of this research is to develop a new model related to the causality of the relationship
between FDI and economic growth in ASEAN countries 5.
METHOD
This research is a two-way relationship between the independent variable and the dependent
variable that are reciprocal, meaning that one variable can be the cause and also the effect on other
variables, and vice versa.
The purpose of this research is explanatory research (explanatory research) where explanatory
research is a type of research that explains the causal relationship between one variable with other
variables through hypothesis testing.
E-ISSN : 2622-304X, P-ISSN : 2622-3031 Available online at:
http://proceedings.stiewidyagamalumajang.ac.id/index.php/progress
Progress Conference Volume 2 Number 2, August 2019 | 81
The object of this research is ASEAN 5 Countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam
and the Philippines by looking at the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic
Growth. The reason for choosing the object is because the characteristics and socio-cultural culture
are almost the same, besides this there is a linkage of the economic sector between one country and
another.
Data collection techniques use documentation studies by collecting secondary data, taking notes,
and processing data related to this research. According to Azwar (2001: 91) Secondary data is
usually in the form of documentation data or report data that has been available. The data used
include: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), exports, government spending and Economic Growth
(GDP). While the type of data used is time series data in 1981-2017. Sources of data obtained from
the World Bank.
The data analysis technique of this study used the VAR and VECM models. According to Greene,
2002 The shape of the VAR equation has changed a lot but not only has the shape of the equation
changed, the variables in the equation have changed too, VAR has not only shaped a number of
structural models but also aims to analyze and forecast macroeconomic activity and explore the
effects of changes in policy and external stimulus on the economy. In addition to forecasting, VAR
has been used for two main functions, testing Granger causality and studying the effects of policy
through implus response factors and variance decomposition.
According to Gujarati (1995) there are several advantages of the VAR method including: (1) Simple
method; no need to worry about determining which variables are endogenous and which are
exogenous. All variables in VAR are endogenous. (2) Simple estimation; that is, the OLS method
can be applied to each equation separately. (3) Forcasting with this method is in many cases better
than several models of simultaneous equations.
Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is the development of a VAR model for deeper analysis if
we want to consider the existence of non-stationary data behavior (Ekananda, 2016).
The main differences in cointegration equations in VECM include: The resulting cointegration
equation is a form of restriction from the VAR model, where the VAR model assumes that there are
dynamic relationships of several interrelated variables (vectors). 2. The resulting cointegration
equation is obtained from the johansen method, where cointegration results from the measurement
of the eigenvalues of several variable combinations. 3. The composition of the cointegration
equation is determined by the order of the variables in the VECM model. 4. Cointegration equation
arrangement shows the relationship between equations and between variables simultaneously
dynamically. 5. The composition of the cointegration equation shows the relationship between
equations and between variables simultaneously dynamically. 6. The compilation of the
cointegration equation must begin with the preparation of the VECM in accordance with economic
theory at the beginning of the study. The cointegration equation that is formed is a consequence of
the compilation of theories and VECM models that were prepared earlier (Ekananda, 2016).
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Economic growth in the five ASEAN countries has fluctuated. Since 1981-1996 the rate of
economic growth in ASEAN 5 countries experienced positive growth, but since 1997-1998 in
several ASEAN countries especially Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam
experienced negative economic growth, this is due to the financial crisis that occurred in some
Asian countries, the financial crisis began in Thailand because of the fall in the value of the Bath
E-ISSN : 2622-304X, P-ISSN : 2622-3031 Available online at:
http://proceedings.stiewidyagamalumajang.ac.id/index.php/progress
Progress Conference Volume 2 Number 2, August 2019 | 82
currency which eventually impacted on several other Asian countries. The impact of the 1997-1998
economic crisis was most felt by the Indonesian state, this was seen in conditions of growth that
dropped dramatically with a negative growth value compared to other ASEAN countries namely
Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.
Figure 5.1 Economic Growth in ASEAN Countries 5
Source: World Bank, 2017
In 1999 economic growth showed a stable development compared to previous years, the movement
of economic growth had grown positively in ASEAN 5 countries. However, economic growth
weakened again after the global crisis in 2008. The global economic crisis that occurred in 2008
actually started in a crisis the United States economy which then spread to other countries around
the world, including ASEAN countries such as Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam and
Indonesia. The global economic crisis in 2009 began in the United States due to the impetus for
consumption (propincity to consume) . The American people live in consumerism outside the limits
of the ability of the income it receives. They live in debt, shopping with a credit card, and housing
loans. As a result, financial institutions that provide credit are bankrupt because of loss of liquidity,
because the company's loans to housing creditors have been mortgaged to lending institutions. In
the end, the companies must go bankrupt because they cannot pay all their debts which are due at
the same time. The collapse of the financial companies resulted in the Wall Street stock market
becoming powerless, large companies unable to survive. The 5 ASEAN countries that were most
affected by the 2009 global economic crisis were Malaysia and Thailand. Until 2017 economic
growth in ASEAN 5 countries experienced a positive growth rate despite fluctuating developments.
The development of foreign capital inflows in several ASEAN 5 countries is different, since 1981-
1996 FDI conditions experienced rapid growth, especially in Vietnam and Malaysia, as we know
Vietnam is a communist country that is most targeted by several foreign investors, besides because
of the success stories of giant shoe companies such as adidas and nike, Vietnam is also famous for
its high technology proven that Intel has been investing in the country since 2010, followed by LG
Group and Samsung, which are reaping successful investing in Vietnam.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
E-ISSN : 2622-304X, P-ISSN : 2622-3031 Available online at:
http://proceedings.stiewidyagamalumajang.ac.id/index.php/progress
Progress Conference Volume 2 Number 2, August 2019 | 83
-5
0
5
10
15
19
81
19
84
19
87
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
20
11
20
14
20
17
Indonesia
Malaysia
0
50
100
150
200
250
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
Figure 5.2 Foreign Direct Investment in ASEAN Countries 5
Source: World Bank, 2017
The growth of FDI that is most concerned about the Indonesian state in 1997-1998, the impact of
the monetary crisis is strongly felt in Indonesia, this is characterized by the weakening of the rupiah
against the US dollar which led to Indonesia's rich people, both native and ethnic Chinese officials,
since then get ready to save his assets abroad to anticipate domestic political instability. Since the
beginning of December 1997 until the beginning of May 1998 there has been a massive capital
flight out of the country due to political instability such as the issue of the President's illness and
elections (World Bank, 1998: 1.4, 1.10).
Trade openness is one measure of a country's readiness to establish product specialization in the
field of trade, according to the trading theory of Adam Smith and David Ricardo, each country has
comparative advantages and advantages so that each country will certainly specialize.
Figure 5.3 below shows that Vietnam and Malaysia have a high value of trade openness compared
to other ASEAN 5 countries. Aside from the two countries being the destination of foreign
investors, the country is a country with faster economic growth.
Figure 5.3 Trade Openness in ASEAN Countries 5
Source: World Bank, 2017
Based on the estimated results of the chow test from Table 5.4 shows that the Chi-Square
probability value (0.4457) is greater than the critical probability (α = 5% or 0.05). This means that
the null hypothesis (H0) is accepted and H1 is rejected. Thus it is known that the model is not good
and not appropriate to use the Fixed Effect model panel regression analysis. Testing the
determination of the best model is continued by using the Hausman Test.
E-ISSN : 2622-304X, P-ISSN : 2622-3031 Available online at:
http://proceedings.stiewidyagamalumajang.ac.id/index.php/progress
Progress Conference Volume 2 Number 2, August 2019 | 84
Table 5.1. PLS, FEM and REM Model Testing Results
Variabel Panel Least Square Fixed Effect Model Random Effect Model
Trade -0.018870
(0.0070)*
-0.027422
(0.0417) *
-0.018870
(0.0072)*
FDI 1.059017
(0.0005)*
0.998433
(0.0000)*
1.059017
(0.0000)*
Adjusted R-square 0.227080 0.223281 0.227080
F-statistic 0.000002 0.000018 0.000002
Uji Chow 1.616356
Prob. 0.4457
Uji Hausman 1.545142
Prob 0.4618
LM 29.14296
Prob. 0.0000*
Source: Results of Eviews 7
Based on the thirsty test in table 5.1 it is known that the Chi-Square probability value (0.4618) is
greater than the critical probability (α = 5% or 0.05). This means that the null hypothesis (H0) is
accepted and H1 is rejected. Thus it is known that the model is not good and not right to use panel
analysis of random effects regression models. Testing the determination of the best model is
continued by using the LM Test.
Based on the LM test in table 5.1 it is known that the Chi-Square probability (0,000) is smaller than
the critical probability (α = 5% or 0.05). This means that the null hypothesis (H0) is rejected and H1
is accepted. Thus it is known that the model has been good and appropriate using random effects
model panel regression analysis.
Stationarity test is used to see whether the research variable has a unit root or does not have a unit
root. Stationary data is not found unit roots while non stationary data has unit roots. Unit root
testing uses Augmented dickey fuller test, stationary data must have a t-statistic value at the ADF
greater than critical values.
Based on the unit root test results in table 5.2 below shows that the GDP, FDI and TRADE
variables in the study are not stationary on the data level, the probability value is still greater than
the critical value α = 0.05. The output results indicate that the data is not stationary at the data level
level.
Table 5.2. Unit Root Test Results
Levin, Lin, Chu (LLC) Tingkat GDP TRADE FDI
Level 0.0002* 0.1002 0.2628
1st Difference 0.0007* 0.0071* 0.0000*
2nd Difference 0.0000* 0.0000* 0.0000*
Im Pesaran, Shin (IPS) Tingkat GDP TRADE FDI
Level 0.0002* 0.7722 0.743
1st Difference 0.0000* 0.0000* 0.0000*
2nd Difference 0.0000* 0.0000* 0.0000*
Fisher- Augment Dickey Fuller (F-ADF) Tingkat GDP TRADE FDI
Level 0.0008* 0.8715 0.1033
1st Difference 0.0000* 0.0000* 0.0000*
E-ISSN : 2622-304X, P-ISSN : 2622-3031 Available online at:
http://proceedings.stiewidyagamalumajang.ac.id/index.php/progress
Progress Conference Volume 2 Number 2, August 2019 | 85
2nd Difference 0.0000* 0.0000* 0.0000*
Fisher- Phillip Perron (Fisher-PP) Tingkat GDP TRADE FDI
Level 0.0001* 0.5094 0.0417
1st Difference 0.0000* 0.0000* 0.0000*
2nd Difference 0.0000* 0.0000* 0.0000*
Source: Results of Eviews 7
While based on unit root test results using the first difference data, it can be seen that the GDP, FDI
and TRADE variables in the study have been stationary because the probability value is smaller
than the critical value α = 0.05 each 0.0000> 0.05. The output results indicate that the data is
stationary.
To see the research data, there is cointegration or not by using the Johansen Cointegration Test. The
following is the Johansen Cointegration Test Results using lag length 1 with fist difference data. If
the Trance Statistics value is greater than the Critical Value then the equation is cointegrated and
vice versa if the Trance Statistics value is smaller than the Critical Value then the equation is not
cointegrated, or the ADF probability value> 5% critical value, in the VAR model the equation used
is the equation used not cointegrated.
Table 5.3. Cointegration Test Results
Prob. ADF Keterangan
0.0001 Terkointegrasi
Source: Processed Eviews 7
The Johansen Cointegration Test results in Table 5.3 above show the cointegration equation with
the ADF Probability value is smaller than the Critical Value (0,0001 <0.05), so in this study using
the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).
To determine the optimal lag length using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) criterion value.
The smallest AIC value used in determining the optimal lag. Based on Table 5.4 below it appears
that the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value is located at lag 2, then the optimal lag
length is 2 with an AIC value of 15,62982.
Table 5.4. Optimal Lag Length Determination Results
Lag AIC
0 19.38927
1 15.63257
2 15.6298*
3 15.71951
4 15.89785
5 16.02985
6 16.13867
7 16.17018
8 16.29902
Source: Result Of Eviews 7
Based on the Granger Causality test results in table 5.5 below shows the probability value is greater
than sig 0.005 both GDP, FDI and TRADE variables, meaning that there is no two-way relationship
E-ISSN : 2622-304X, P-ISSN : 2622-3031 Available online at:
http://proceedings.stiewidyagamalumajang.ac.id/index.php/progress
Progress Conference Volume 2 Number 2, August 2019 | 86
between GDP against FDI and vice versa, there is no two-way relationship between TRADE to FDI
and vice versa, and there is no two-way TRADE relationship to GDP and vice versa.
Table 5.5. Granger Causality Test Results
Null Hypothesis: Obs
F-
Statistic Prob.
GDP does not Granger Cause FDI 90 1.54031 0.2202
FDI does not Granger Cause GDP 0.51103 0.6017
TRADE does not Granger Cause FDI 90 1.92462 0.1522
FDI does not Granger Cause TRADE 3.07619 0.0513
TRADE does not Granger Cause GDP 90 0.30541 0.7376
GDP does not Granger Cause TRADE 2.86166 0.0627
Source: Results of Eviews 7
Because with the Granger Causality test there is no relationship between FDI and GDP and vice
versa, the estimation is continued using the VECM method to see the long-term relationship
between FDI and GDP, TRADE and GDP.
VECM estimates are used to look at past FDI, GDP and TRADE movements, in addition, the VAR
and VECM models are not only structural but aim to analyze and forecast macroeconomic activity
and explore the effects of changes in policy and external stimulus on the economy. Cointegration
test results above that each variable is cointegrated, the model used is the VECM model.
Implied Response Factor (IRF)
Furthermore, to find out the shock (shaking) of each variable against other variables using the
Response Response Factor (IRF). The figure below shows the period in which one period represents
one month. This study uses a period of 24 months, so that the period used in the IRF test is 24
periods. The following is the result of IRF estimation based on the relationship of each variable
(See Figure 5.6)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Response of GDP to FDI
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Response of GDP to TRADE
Figure 5.6. Implied Response Factor (IRF) Results
In the estimation of the impulse response above, the GDP response to the shock variable FDI shows
that the GDP response to FDI is fluctuating. In the first period to the second period, it was seen that
the GDP variable gave a positive response to FDI of 0.2%. In the next period, the GDP response to
FDI shock began to decline but did not reach the negative direction to the range of 0.02%. The
response will reach a balance point in the 8th period until the 22nd period with a response of
0.001%. This indicates that in the long run there is a positive relationship between GDP and FDI.
E-ISSN : 2622-304X, P-ISSN : 2622-3031 Available online at:
http://proceedings.stiewidyagamalumajang.ac.id/index.php/progress
Progress Conference Volume 2 Number 2, August 2019 | 87
Whereas based on the results of impulse response the GDP response to TRADE shock shows that
the GDP response to TRADE shock was positive and increased in the second period which was
0.1%, but in the next period the GDP response to TRADE began to decrease to around 0.001% in
the 3rd period until it reached balance in the 4th to the 24th periods. This indicates that in the long
run there is a positive relationship between GDP and TRADE.
Variance Decomposition (VD)
Analysis of Variance Decomposition (VD) is an analysis to predict the contribution of variable
variance due to changes in certain variables in the VAR model. With this analysis it will be known
how much the contribution of the FDI variable is due to changes in the GDP variable in each period
and how much the contribution of the GDP variable due to changes in the variable FDI in each -
each period and how many contributions the GDP variable is due to changes in the TRADE
variable. VD test is needed to test the estimated error variance of a variable that is how big the
variance before and after shock, both shock originating from oneself and from other variables.
Table 5.6. Output Variance Decomposition (DC) Results Of FDI, GDP and Trade
Period S.E. GDP FDI TRADE
1 3.379452 100 0 0
2 3.545851 99.54319 0.418096 0.038712
3 3.579488 97.68603 0.59725 1.716723
4 3.613679 97.28397 0.602202 2.113825
5 3.621565 96.98103 0.825978 2.192987
6 3.624868 96.85161 0.82853 2.319863
7 3.626995 96.84762 0.832439 2.319943
8 3.627606 96.82782 0.849818 2.322359
9 3.628028 96.80789 0.849762 2.342345
10 3.628233 96.80244 0.852318 2.34524
11 3.62848 96.79078 0.857015 2.3522
12 3.62872 96.77853 0.859404 2.362071
13 3.628946 96.76863 0.862947 2.368421
14 3.629187 96.75778 0.866858 2.375358
15 3.629428 96.7468 0.87026 2.382937
Source: Result Of Eviews 7
Based on the results of Variance Decomposition above, the biggest contribution lies in the GDP
variable. The contribution of the GDP variable continued to decline until the 15th period but
remained positive and was the most dominant among the other variables. In the third period the
contribution of GDP has decreased from 99.54% to 97.68%, although the downward trend in the
contribution of GDP until the 15th period remains positive and the most dominant among the other
variables, up to the 15th period the contribution of GDP amounted to 96.74%
The second biggest contribution in influencing economic growth is the TRADE variable, the
variance on the TRADE variable continues to increase until the end of the period, the highest
increase lies at the end of the 15th period of 2.38%.
The contribution of variance to the FDI variable in influencing economic growth also experienced a
positive trend, starting from the beginning of the period until the end of the period, this is indicated
E-ISSN : 2622-304X, P-ISSN : 2622-3031 Available online at:
http://proceedings.stiewidyagamalumajang.ac.id/index.php/progress
Progress Conference Volume 2 Number 2, August 2019 | 88
by the value of the initial variance of the second period of 0.41%, increasing until the end of the
period of 0.87%.
Based on the Granger Causality test results, there is no 2-way relationship between FDI and GDP,
according to the research of Dritsaki and Stiakakis (2014), Temiz and Gokmen (2014). There is no
relationship between FDI and economic growth in 5 ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the
Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam) due to the Granger Causality test to see a 2-way relationship
between FDI and GDP and vice versa then the estimation is continued using the VECM method to
see the long-term relationship between FDI and GDP, TRADE and GDP.
Based on the results of the VECM estimation shows the response of GDP to shock FDI gives a
positive response and increases in the second period and the subsequent period has decreased and
tends to be stable until the end of the 24th period. This indicates in the long run there is a positive
relationship between GDP and FDI, in accordance with Tekin research, 2012; Lamsiraroj and
Ulubasoglu, 2015; Ibrahiem, 2015; Khatun and Ahamad, 2015; Abdouli and Hammami, 2016, De
Mello (1999); Sunde, 2017; Abbes, et al, 2015; Diby, 2014 and Nistor, 2014
Abdouli and Hammami, 2016 explained that international capital flows that entered the country,
especially developing countries as host countries, were able to bring many positive effects both
financial and non-financial. Aside from being a complement to domestic investment, for host
country FDI will bring other positive influences such as accelerating the transmission of modern
technology and developing human capital so that the level of domestic productivity increases and
people's needs can be met, it will clearly increase economic growth in terms of GDP.
When viewed from the characteristics of the 5 ASEAN countries namely Indonesia, Malaysia,
Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines, the 5 ASEAN countries have almost the same
characteristics, namely both developing countries with the main base of the agricultural sector,
ASEAN 5 countries also have an open economy . In accordance with IRF results when there is a
shock from direct FDI responds to changes in economic growth. this is certainly in accordance with
the opinions of Dornbusch, Fisher and Strartz: 2004 which states economic growth is related to
growth in inputs such as labor and capital, and improvements in technology, Dornbusch, Fisher and
Strartz (2004) also argue that if FDI rises then it will respond quickly by economic growth, this has
happened in the 5 ASEAN countries, the ups and downs of FDI always bring changes to economic
growth.
Whereas based on the results of impulse response the GDP response to TRADE shock shows that
the GDP response to TRADE shock was positive and increased in the second period but in the next
period the GDP response to TRADE began to decline until the 3rd period until it reached a balance
in the 4th period to the 24th period , this indicates that every increase / decrease in GDP will be
responded to with an increase / decrease in TRADE and vice versa every increase / decrease in
TRADE will be responded to by an increase / decrease in GDP, this is in accordance with the
research of Belloumi (2014).
Hoang (2012) argues that with a high trade openness, which causes the trade barrier to decline this
is an opportunity for foreign investors to be able to take advantage of the comparative advantage of
the host country to be able to reexport so that it will increase economic growth in terms of GDP.
In developing countries, especially ASEAN 5 (Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and the
Philippines) is unique in product diversification. The basis of the agricultural sector has always
been an advantage, especially in Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand, by implementing high trade
E-ISSN : 2622-304X, P-ISSN : 2622-3031 Available online at:
http://proceedings.stiewidyagamalumajang.ac.id/index.php/progress
Progress Conference Volume 2 Number 2, August 2019 | 89
openness that will cause openness with several other countries so that product specialization can
occur.
The high trade openness policy in ASEAN 5 countries is very conducive to increasing international
trade transactions both through the imposition of tariffs and quotas. Thus the government policy to
implement various international trade policies aimed at increasing the value of trade openness by
opening the widest possible space for trade traffic between countries is the right step for ASEAN
countries to do. This is important because trade openness has an impact which is very large towards
efforts to increase economic growth better and faster. The existence of export and import policies
with a new and productive system is very possible by the governments of ASEAN countries to spur
economic growth and catch up with the developed countries. And the socialization of government
regulations in the field of trade between countries needs to be done, in which the community/
international trade actors to fully understand the regulations issued by the government. This
condition enables business actors to determine the appropriate business sectors to be carried out so
that long-term trade openness can continue to drive economic growth.
CONCLUSION
Based on the Granger Causality test there is no relationship between FDI and GDP and vice versa
between GDP and FDI, there is no relationship between trade openness to GDP and vice versa
between GDP and trade openness. Based on the VECM test there is a relationship between FDI to
GDP and trade options to GDP
REFERENCES
Abbes Sahraoui Mohammed, et al. (2015). Causal Interactions between FDI, and Economic
Growth: Evidence from Dynamic Panel Co-integration. Procedia Economics and Finance,
Volume 23, 2015, Pages 276-290
Abdouli Mohamed and Hammami Sami. (2016). Investigating the causality links between
environmental quality, foreign direct investment and economic growth in MENA countries.
International Business Review, Volume 26, Issue 2, April 2017, Pages 264-278
Agenor, P. R. (2001). Benefits and Costs of International Financial Integration: Theory and Facts.
Policy Research Working Paper, No. 2699, The World Bank
Almfraji. M A , Almsafir M K, and Yao Liu. (2014). Economic Growth and Foreign Direct
Investment Inflows: The Case of Qatar. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, Volume
109, 8 January 2014, Pages 1040-1045
Azwar, Saifudin. (2001). Metode Penelitian. Pustaka Pelajar Offset : Yogyakarta.
Belloumi, Mounir. 2014. The relationship between trade, FDI and economic growth in Tunisia: An
application of the autoregressive distributed lag model. Economic Systems, Volume 38, Issue
2, June 2014, Pages 269-287
Borensztein. E, Gregorio J. De , Lee, J-W. (1998). How does foreign direct investment affect
economic growth?. Journal of International Economics 45 (1998) 115–135
De Mello, Jr., L.R. (1999). FDI-led growth: evidence from time series and panel data. Oxford
Economic Papers 51, 133-151.
Diby, Steve Loris Gui. (2014). Impact of foreign direct investments on economic growth in Africa:
Evidence from three decades of panel data analyses. Research in Economics, Volume 68,
Issue 3, September 2014, Pages 248-256
Dornbusch, R, Fisher, S, Startz, R, (2004). Makroekonomi. PT.Media Global Edukasi Jakarta
E-ISSN : 2622-304X, P-ISSN : 2622-3031 Available online at:
http://proceedings.stiewidyagamalumajang.ac.id/index.php/progress
Progress Conference Volume 2 Number 2, August 2019 | 90
Dritsaki, Chaido.Stiakakis, Emmanouil. (2014). Foreign Direct Investments, Exports, and
Economic Growth in Croatia: A Time Series Analysis. Procedia Economics and Finance,
Volume 14, 2014, Pages 181-190
Greene, William H. (2002). Econometric Analysis. Fifth Edition Prentice Hall. New Jersey The
united States Of Amerika
Gujarati, D.N. 1995. Basic Econometrics, Fourth Edition.The McGraw−Hill Companies
Hoang, Hong Hiep. (2012). Foreign Direct Investment in Southeast Asia; Determinants and Spatial
Distributin. Working Paper Series No. 2012/30 Centre of Studies and Research on
International Development (CERDI) University of Auvergne, CNRS
Ibrahiem, Dalia M. (2015). Renewable Electricity Consumption, Foreign Direct Investment and
Economic Growth in Egypt: An ARDL Approach. Procedia Economics and Finance, Volume
30, 2015, Pages 313-323
Khatun Fahmida and Ahamad Mazbahul, (2015). Foreign direct investment in the energy and
power sector in Bangladesh: Implications for economic growth. Renewable and Sustainable
Energy Reviews, Volume 52, December 2015, Pages 1369-1377
Krugman, Paul., and Obstfeld, Maurice. (1999). Ekonomi Internasional: Teori dan Kebijakan. Buku
Pertama: Perdagangan. Edisi Kedua. Jakarta: PT Raja Grafindo.
Kurniawan, Paulus, Budhi, Made Kembar Sri, (2015). Pengantar Ekonomi Mikro dan Makro. Edisi
1 xvi +208 hlm;20x28 cm. CV. Andi Offset Yogyakarta
Lamsiraroj Sasi and Ulubasoglu Mehmet Ali, (2015). Foreign direct investment and economic
growth: A real relationship or wishful thinking?. Economic Modelling, Volume 51,
December 2015, Pages 200-213
Lindert, Peter H, (1994). Ekonomi Internasional. Edisi kesembilan cetakan 1. Bumi Aksara : Jakarta
Mahyus, Ekananda. (2016). Analisis Ekonometrika Time Series. Edisi Kedua. Mitra Wacana Media,
Jakarta
Mankiw, Gregory. 2006. Makroekonomi. Erlangga, Jakarta.
Mankiw, N. Gregory, Quah,Euston, dan Wilson, Peter. (2014). Pengantar Ekonomi Makro Edisi
Asia. Salemba Empat- Jakarta.
Nistor Paula, (2014). FDI and Economic Growth, the Case of Romania. Procedia Economics and
Finance, Volume 15, 2014, Pages 577-582
Richard Lipsey. (1995). Pengantar Ekonomi Mikro (Terjemahan). Binarupa Aksara. Jakarta.
Rodrik, Dani, Rosenzweig, Mark R. 2010. Handbook Of Development Economics. North-Holland
Tafirenyika Sunde. (2017). Foreign direct investment and economic growth: ADRL and causality
analysis for South Africa. Research in International Business and Finance
Temiz, Dilek, Gökmen, Aytaç. (2014). FDI inflow as an international business operation by MNCs
and economic growth: An empirical study on Turkey. International Business Review, Volume
23, Issue 1, February 2014, Pages 145-154
Tekin, Rifat Baris. (2012). Economic growth, exports and foreign direct investment in Least
Developed Countries: A panel Granger causality analysis. Economic Modelling, Volume 29,
Issue 3, May 2012, Pages 868-878
Todaro, Michael. (2000).Ekonomi Pembangunan Edisi ke 6. Erlangga, Jakarta
Todaro, Michael P, Smith, Stephan C. (2011). Pembangunan Ekonomi Edisi Kesebelas Jilid 2.
Erlangga. Jakarta
Tradingeconomics. (2017). Data Pertumbuhan Ekonomi ASEAN. www.Tradingeconimics.com.
Diakses 02 Agustus 2018
Yaqin su, Zhiqiang Liu. (2015). The impact of foreign direct investment and human capital on
economic growth: Evidence from Chinese cities. China Economic Review, Volume 37,
February 2016, Pages 97-10.
top related