2013 kuliah umum smuhidin unsri january

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Dr Salut Muhidin([email protected])

Kuliah Umum S2 Program Studi Kependudukan

Program Pascasarjana Universitas Sriwijaya

10 Januari 2013

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Outline Presentasi

• Definisi dan peran penting demografi• Trend demografi• Beberapa implikasi dari trend demografi

• Ketenagakerjaan, • Konsumsi, dan• Sumber daya

• Peluang bisnis sebagai akibat trend demografi• Kesimpulan dan diskusi

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What is Demography?

• The scientific study of human population.• Concerned with:

– Population size – Population growth or decline– Population processes – Population distribution– Population structure – Population characteristics

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Why is Demography Important?

• Global, national, and local issues have important demographic components : – Globalization: MDG, Global Network– The degradation of the environment: Greenhouse– The backlash against immigrants: origin and

destination countries– Terrorism, violence and regional conflict– Etc..

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Related Issues with Demography

Crisis of Low Fertility

Inequality of Health

Ageing Pandemic:Bird Flu, HIV/AIDS

Human Trafficking

Socio-economicDevelopment

Population Policy

Environment

HumanSettlementPopulation

Fertility

Mortality

Migration

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More specific: Why should businesses care about populations?

Business opportunities and decisions are often information driven.1. Demand side: Populations and subpopulations are

potential markets for their goods and services.

2. Supply side: Populations and subpopulations are potential sources of labour to provide their goods and services.

Demography(change)

Business(change)

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Business Demographics

• The application of the contents and methods of demography to business problems and opportunities (Pol & Thomas, 1997)

• Examples:– Demographics are an important component of site

selection for many businesses.– Investors use demographics to find areas of potential

market growth.– Human resource managers use demographics to

increase their awareness of the special qualities and needs among their present and prospective employees.

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Use Demography in Business Decision-Making

1. Market analysis.2. Market segmentation.3. Identification of potential customers/markets.4. Site selection.5. Human resource planning6. Strategic planning of responses of demographically-related

opportunities and threats.7. Risk assessment

Superannuation and life assurance (survival rates and life tables) and other forms of insurance

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Uses of Demography in the Public Sector

1. Demography and Democracy2. Demography and Funding Allocation3. Demography and Service Provision4. Demography and Financial Planning5. Demography and Social Inclusion6. Workforce Planning7. Demography and Policy Development

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Indonesian Demography

The diversity is happening in regional demographic indicators

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Demographic Trends

• Growing population– Higher population size and economic growth rates,

which results in:– Increased roles of migration, and– Growing rates of urbanisation

• Changing age structure: Ageing population– Increased life expectancy, particularly among women,

and lower fertility rates, which results in: Higher share of elderly people

• These demographic trends have impacts on different, yet interrelated outcomes

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Demographic Trends: Growing Population

68.632 95.259

147.490 179.379

207.437 237.641

-

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Population of Indonesia: 1930-2010

• Demographically, Indonesia and its regions have generally experienced in declining fertility and mortality rates. As a result, migration will eventually take its turn in determining the growth of population (Pt = P0 + B-D + Net Mig).

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Growing Population: Urban 2000 & 2005

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Advanced Transportations

15Table 2 after Firman et al (2006)

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Changing Age Structure:From Youth Bulge to Aged Bulge

1971 1990

2000 2010

Year = 1971

12.500.000 7.500.000 2.500.000 2.500.000 7.500.000 12.500.000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Male

Female

Year = 1990

12.500.000 7.500.000 2.500.000 2.500.000 7.500.000 12.500.000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Male

Female

Year = 1998

12.500.000 7.500.000 2.500.000 2.500.000 7.500.000 12.500.000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Male

Female

Pop Aged 60+ = 4.5%TFR = 5.1

Pop Aged 60+ = 7.6%TFR = 2.3

12500000 7500000 2500000 2500000 7500000 12500000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84Year = 2010

Male

Female

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Regional Diversity

Proportion of elderly (aged 60+):• Yogyakarta = 14.16% vs. Papua = 1.74%• North Sumatra = 5.90%

Population distribution by main island:• Java = 57.49% population in 6.8% land size• Rest of Indonesia = 42.51% pop in 93.2% land size

Population growth rates (Census 2010)• National = 1.49%, • The highest = 5.39% in Papua • The lowest = 0.37% in Central Java

1,000 500 0 500 1,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

North Sumatra 2010

Male

Female

200 100 0 100 200

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Yogyakarta 2010

Male

Female

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Implications from Demographic Changes

1. Changes in the Workforce • Skills shortages will primarily be present in:

– Less developed regions where educational shortfalls may exist

– More developed region’s markets where a significant proportion of the working population nears retirement age, with little prospect of worker replacement

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2. Changes in the Consumer Base• Increasing product and service needs for:

– Low-income consumers in developing markets– Consumers with higher disposable incomes in all

markets– Ageing populations in more developed markets


* PPP – Purchasing Power Parity

Source: AT Kearney

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• Ability to provide products and services which lessen impacts on resource depletion and environmental degradation are key

• If current consumption rates continue, by 2050 a global population of over nine billion will require the biological capacity of two Earths

Population growth leads to rising consumption and increasing pressure

on scarce resources

Source: Goldman Sachs, 2010


3. Increasing pressure on resources and the environment

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Business Opportunities from Demographic Changes

Base/Bottom of the Pyramid

(BOP)

Resource Scarcity &

Environmental Degradation

Ageing Population-

focused ProductsSkills Shortages

Changes in the Consumer BaseChallenges

Business Opportunities

Wealthier Consumers

Changes in the Workforce

Pressure on Resources & the

Environment

• Three main implications resulting from demographic changes have resulted in numerous business opportunities.

222011 SRI Roadshow


(BOP)

Resource Scarcity &


Ageing Population-


Affordable Healthcare

Affordable Food & Nutrition

Access to Transport

Access to Telecoms

Affordable Finance

Access to Energy

Fairtrade Systems

Food ProductivityHealthier Living &

Quality of LifeEducation Services

Hygiene & SanitationFinancial SecurityEmployment &

Outsourcing Services

Management of Resources

Automation Services



Solutions

Wealthier Consumers

Aspirational Products



Environment


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Business Opportunity – Skills Shortages

• Main Issues– Ageing workforce which is close to retirement age ► loss of skills and knowledge

– Lack of education and vocational training ► lack of qualified new entrants into the labour market

– Poor recruitment and employee retention policies and programmes ► Different generation needs different approaches► lower productivity and higher turnover costs

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Business Opportunity – Skills ShortagesProvision of Education Services• Lack of education is a major obstacle to

development• New technologies and increased access to the

Internet may assist in offering a cheaper alternative

• Opportunities will increase for multi-skilled workers and those able to adapt to new technical or cultural environment

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• Education division is expected account for bulk of growth in revenues and profits in future

• Opportunity in the shift to digital education programmes

• Global digital education revenue mix has increased from 30% to 44% over the period 2005 - 2010

• Strong opportunities to expand in unsaturated media markets

Business Opportunity – Skills Shortages

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(BOP)

Resource Scarcity &


Ageing Population-




Access to Transport

Access to Telecoms

Affordable Finance

Access to Energy

Fairtrade Systems






Automation Services



Solutions

Wealthier Consumers




Environment


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Business Opportunity – Base/Bottom of the Pyramid

• Main issues– Access to essential goods and services ► human right

– Growing low-income populations ► over 4 billion people with a market opportunity estimated to be almost USD 5 trillion

– Providing the right products ► affordability, availability, acceptability, accessibility

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Access to Telecoms

• Main opportunities in mobile technologies and Internet access

– Mobile telephony offers new ICT solutions to regions that used to be without access

– Still imbalance in Internet access

Business Opportunity – Base/Bottom of the Pyramid

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(BOP)

Resource Scarcity &


Ageing Population-




Access to Transport

Access to Telecoms

Affordable Finance

Access to Energy

Fairtrade Systems






Automation Services



Solutions

Wealthier Consumers




Environment


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• Main issues– Globally, rising generation of

over-65s ► strong growth for certain products and services

– Social perspective ► maintenance of quality of life and the increasing need for healthcare services

– Economic perspective ► impacts on savings, investments and pensions and need for financial stability

Source: UN, 2009

Percent of the population aged 60 or over, 2000-2025

Source: United Nations 2008 Revision

Business Opportunity – Ageing Population

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Provision of Healthier Living and Quality of Life

• Healthcare expenditure for over-65s are nearly four times that of younger people

• Functional foods present growing market opportunities

• Service specialised in orthopaedics, endoscopy and wound management

Increasing shift towards managed healthcare services for elderly populations

Business Opportunity – Ageing Population

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(BOP)

Resource Scarcity &


Ageing Population-




Access to Transport

Access to Telecoms

Affordable Finance

Access to Energy

Fairtrade Systems






Automation Services



Solutions

Wealthier Consumers




Environment


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• Main issues– If global population reaches 9.3

billion people by 2050, global grain production will have to feed an additional 2.5 billion people, an 40% increase

– By 2025 1.8 billion people will live in regions with absolute water scarcity, including most countries in the Middle East and North Africa

– Population growth is intensifying the demand for, and consumption of, non renewable energy sources

Food demand exceeds addition of available land for agriculture

Source: Goldman Sachs, 2010; World Bank

Business Opportunity – Sources & Environment

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Conclusions

• Two interrelated demographic trends– Growing populations ► higher population and

economic growth rates– Ageing populations ► higher share of elderly

people

• Challenges implicate changes to the workforce, consumer base and even the wider environment and use of resources

• Business opportunities exist which offer both sustainable solutions and sound financial returns.

Trends

Challenges

Solutions & Market

Opportunities

2013 kuliah umum smuhidin unsri january

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