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LAMPIRAN
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Lampiran 1. Program Estimasi Model Ekonomi Usaha Kecil Menggunakan Metode Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) dan Prosedur SYSLIN dengan Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER; DATA UMK1; SET UMK1; MOUS = PKM + ALK; TBP = PBM + PBB + PTK; PEND = PENU ‐ TBP; RUN; PROC SYSLIN 2SLS DATA = UMK1 SIMPLE OUTEST=A; ENDOGENOUS PKM MOUS PBM PBB PTK PENU TBP PEND TABS PKON PPKS; INSTRUMENTS SBK ALK PO TP JAK JTK PBBM PTKP KTK JAS DSK DJG DPP PSO PNTK LTU PI DJST; MODEL PKM = SBK TABS PNTK LTU DSK/DW; IDENTITY MOUS = PKM + ALK; MODEL PBM = MOUS PI JTK/DW; MODEL PBB = MOUS PBBM/DW; MODEL PTK = MOUS PTKP/DW; MODEL PENU = PBM PBB PTK PO DPP/DW; IDENTITY TBP = PBM + PBB + PTK; IDENTITY PEND = PENU ‐ TBP; MODEL TABS = PEND JAK TP DJST/DW; MODEL PKON = PEND JAK TP KTK/DW; MODEL PPKS = PEND JAS PSO DJG /DW; RUN;
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Lampiran 2. Hasil Estimasi Model Ekonomi Usaha Kecil Menggunakan Metode Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) dan Prosedur SYSLIN dengan Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
The SYSLIN Procedure
Descriptive Statistics
Uncorrected Std
Variables Sum Mean SS Variance Deviation Varibl.
Intercept 90.0000 1.0000 90.0000 0 0 Interc. SBK 1714.4 19.0489 39264.4 74.2358 8.6160 SBK ALK 1.4045E9 15605556 4.793E16 2.923E14 17096635 ALK PO 884575 9828.6 1.71E10 94477101 9719.9 PO TP 298.0 3.3111 1084.0 1.0931 1.0455 TP JAK 373.0 4.1444 1673.0 1.4283 1.1951 JAK JTK 187530 2083.7 5.3255E8 1593270 1262.2 JTK PBBM 7.1546E8 7949578 5.946E16 6.042E14 24580264 PBBM PTKP 1.1904E9 13226378 3.25E16 1.883E14 13723035 PTKP KTK 7.9374E8 8819356 1.172E16 5.306E13 7283932 KTK JAS 148.0 1.6444 298.0 0.6137 0.7834 JAS DSK 35.0000 0.3889 35.0000 0.2403 0.4902 DSK DJG 68.0000 0.7556 68.0000 0.1868 0.4322 DJG DPP 48.0000 0.5333 48.0000 0.2517 0.5017 DPP PSO 1.8606E8 2067333 4.862E14 1.141E12 1068219 PSO PNTK 95100050 1056667 2.201E14 1.344E12 1159189 PNTK LTU 1195.0 13.2778 23651.0 87.4613 9.3521 LTU PI 403230 4480.3 5.7886E9 44742001 6688.9 PI DJST 25.0000 0.2778 25.0000 0.2029 0.4504 DJST PKM 1.4655E9 16283333 8.24E16 6.578E14 25646916 PKM MOUS 2.87E9 31888889 1.951E17 1.163E15 34109521 MOUS PBM 2.124E10 2.3599E8 1.032E19 5.967E16 2.4428E8 PBM PBB 1.5548E9 17275378 7.844E16 5.796E14 24074948 PBB PTK 2.4766E9 27517911 1.154E17 5.308E14 23039513 PTK PENU 3.464E10 3.8489E8 2.442E19 1.246E17 3.5302E8 PENU TBP 2.527E10 2.8079E8 1.395E19 7.706E16 2.776E8 TBP PEND 9.3697E9 1.0411E8 1.957E18 1.103E16 1.05E8 PEND TABS 4.385E8 4872222 2.802E15 7.474E12 2733799 TABS PKON 2.0123E9 22359356 5.828E16 1.493E14 12218270 PKON PPKS 5.5856E8 6206222 5.86E15 2.689E13 5185688 PPKS
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1. Persamaan Pengambilan Kredit : PKM
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PKM Dependent Variable PKM Label PKM Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 5 2.293E16 4.586E15 11.63 <.0001 Error 84 3.313E16 3.944E14 Corrected Total 89 5.854E16 Root MSE 19859742.9 R‐Square 0.40904 Dependent Mean 16283333.3 Adj R‐Sq 0.37386 Coeff Var 121.96362 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 15104932 7925352 1.91 0.0601 Intercept SBK 1 ‐1071138 253520.5 ‐4.23 <.0001 SBK TABS 1 2.682963 1.074421 2.50 0.0145 TABS PNTK 1 2.554394 2.084780 1.23 0.2239 PNTK LTU 1 ‐49707.0 232748.6 ‐0.21 0.8314 LTU DSK 1 16640364 4351980 3.82 0.0003 DSK Durbin‐Watson 1.44787 Number of Observations 90 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.268736
2. Persamaan Penggunaan Bahan Baku: PBM
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PBM Dependent Variable PBM Label PBM Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 1.762E18 5.872E17 13.77 <.0001 Error 86 3.669E18 4.266E16 Corrected Total 89 5.311E18 Root MSE 206545303 R‐Square 0.32441 Dependent Mean 235993173 Adj R‐Sq 0.30084 Coeff Var 87.52173 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 20367366 46914505 0.43 0.6653 Intercept MOUS 1 2.397221 0.959034 2.50 0.0143 MOUS PI 1 630.0195 3341.378 0.19 0.8509 PI JTK 1 65441.69 23266.68 2.81 0.0061 JTK Durbin‐Watson 2.013513 Number of Observations 90 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.01016
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3. Persamaan Penggunaan Bahan Bakar: PBB The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PBB Dependent Variable PBB Label PBB Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 2 4.611E16 2.306E16 343.42 <.0001 Error 87 5.841E15 6.714E13 Corrected Total 89 5.158E16 Root MSE 8193702.01 R‐Square 0.88757 Dependent Mean 17275377.8 Adj R‐Sq 0.88499 Coeff Var 47.42994 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 5530032 1259684 4.39 <.0001 Intercept MOUS 1 0.153124 0.029508 5.19 <.0001 MOUS PBBM 1 0.863239 0.036358 23.74 <.0001 PBBM Durbin‐Watson 1.985058 Number of Observations 90 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.00793
4. Persamaan Penggunaan Tenaga Kerja: PTK The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PTK Dependent Variable PTK Label PTK Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 2 3.532E16 1.766E16 110.88 <.0001 Error 87 1.386E16 1.593E14 Corrected Total 89 4.724E16 Root MSE 12619776.1 R‐Square 0.71823 Dependent Mean 27517911.1 Adj R‐Sq 0.71176 Coeff Var 45.86023 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 2986745 2125166 1.41 0.1635 Intercept MOUS 1 0.375570 0.046789 8.03 <.0001 MOUS PTKP 1 0.949213 0.103261 9.19 <.0001 PTKP Durbin‐Watson 2.24247 Number of Observations 90 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.14185
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5. Persamaan Penerimaan Usaha: PENU The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PENU Dependent Variable PENU Label PENU Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 5 1.054E19 2.107E18 363.28 <.0001 Error 84 4.872E17 5.8E15 Corrected Total 89 1.109E19 Root MSE 76158956.4 R‐Square 0.95580 Dependent Mean 384894667 Adj R‐Sq 0.95317 Coeff Var 19.78696 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 ‐1.349E7 16444168 ‐0.82 0.4144 Intercept PBM 1 1.036368 0.061712 16.79 <.0001 PBM PBB 1 1.491545 0.548822 2.72 0.0080 PBB PTK 1 2.996431 0.559319 5.36 <.0001 PTK PO 1 2714.439 1001.918 2.71 0.0082 PO DPP 1 35448025 17830950 1.99 0.0501 DPP Durbin‐Watson 1.941481 Number of Observations 90 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.026064
6. Persamaan Tabungan: TABS The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model TABS Dependent Variable TABS Label TABS Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 3.767E14 9.416E13 27.92 <.0001 Error 85 2.867E14 3.373E12 Corrected Total 89 6.652E14 Root MSE 1836570.49 R‐Square 0.56780 Dependent Mean 4872222.22 Adj R‐Sq 0.54746 Coeff Var 37.69472 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 2205311 878971.5 2.51 0.0140 Intercept PEND 1 0.006153 0.002556 2.41 0.0182 PEND JAK 1 ‐282239 172395.9 ‐1.64 0.1053 JAK TP 1 664601.6 201705.4 3.29 0.0014 TP DJST 1 3583772 456292.5 7.85 <.0001 DJST Durbin‐Watson 1.320383 Number of Observations 90 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.325273
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7. Persamaan Konsumsi: PKON The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PKON Dependent Variable PKON Label PKON Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 1.119E16 2.797E15 110.51 <.0001 Error 85 2.151E15 2.531E13 Corrected Total 89 1.329E16 Root MSE 5030791.87 R‐Square 0.83872 Dependent Mean 22359355.6 Adj R‐Sq 0.83114 Coeff Var 22.49972 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 4479184 2389977 1.87 0.0643 Intercept PEND 1 0.018831 0.010088 1.87 0.0654 PEND JAK 1 1483237 467187.9 3.17 0.0021 JAK TP 1 ‐553154 555140.7 ‐1.00 0.3219 TP KTK 1 1.315749 0.116787 11.27 <.0001 KTK Durbin‐Watson 1.652307 Number of Observations 90 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.169161
8. Persamaan Pengeluaran Pendidikan dan Sosial: PPKS The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PPKS Dependent Variable PPKS Label PPKS Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 1.496E15 3.739E14 38.12 <.0001 Error 85 8.337E14 9.809E12 Corrected Total 89 2.393E15 Root MSE 3131893.64 R‐Square 0.64209 Dependent Mean 6206222.22 Adj R‐Sq 0.62524 Coeff Var 50.46377 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 ‐3467540 1062381 ‐3.26 0.0016 Intercept PEND 1 0.017714 0.004259 4.16 <.0001 PEND JAS 1 4092241 449442.4 9.11 <.0001 JAS PSO 1 0.420493 0.330893 1.27 0.2073 PSO DJG 1 305509.6 773344.3 0.40 0.6938 DJG Durbin‐Watson 2.029412 Number of Observations 90 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.015
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Lampiran 3. Program Validasi Model Ekonomi Usaha Kecil Menggunakan Metode NEWTON dan Prosedur SIMNLIN dengan Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER; DATA UMK1; SET UMK1; MOUS = PKM + ALK; TBP = PBM + PBB + PTK; PEND = PENU ‐ TBP; RUN; PROC SIMNLIN OUT=OUTDAS STAT SIMULATE OUTPREDICT THEIL; ENDOGENOUS PKM MOUS PBM PTK PBB TBP PENU PEND TABS PKON PPKS; INSTRUMENTS SBK ALK PO TP JAK JTK PBBM PTKP KTK JAS DSK DJG DPP PSO PNTK LTU PI DJST; PARM A0 15104932 A1 ‐1071138 A2 2.682963 A3 2.554394
A4 ‐49707.0 A5 16640364 B0 20367366 B1 2.397221 B2 630.0195 B3 64441.69 C0 5530032 C1 0.153124 C2 0.863239 D0 2986745 D1 0.375570 D2 0.949213 E0 ‐13490000 E1 1.036368 E2 1.491545 E3 2.996431 E4 2714.439 E5 35448025 F0 2205311 F1 0.006153 F2 ‐282239 F3 664601.6 F4 3583772 G0 4479184 G1 0.018831 G2 1483237 G3 ‐553154 G4 1.315749 H0 ‐3467540 H1 0.017714 H2 4092241 H3 0.420493 H4 305509.6;
PKM = A0+A1*SBK+A2*TABS+A3*PNTK+A4*LTU+A5*DSK; MOUS = PKM + ALK; PBM = B0+B1*MOUS+B2*PI+B3*JTK; PBB = C0+C1*MOUS+C2*PBBM; PTK = D0+D1*MOUS+D2*PTKP; PENU = E0+E1*PBM+E2*PBB+E3*PTK+E4*PO+E5*DPP; TBP = PBM + PBB + PTK; PEND = PENU ‐ TBP; TABS = F0+F1*PEND+F2*JAK+F3*TP+F4*DJST; PKON = G0+G1*PEND+G2*JAK+G3*TP+G4*KTK; PPKS = H0+H1*PEND+H2*JAS+H3*PSO+H4*DJG; RUN;
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Lampiran 4. Hasil Validasi Model Ekonomi Usaha Kecil Menggunakan Metode NEWTON dan Prosedur SIMNLIN dengan Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
Model Summary Model Variables 11 Endogenous 11 Parameters 37 Equations 11 Number of Statements 11
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation Data Set Options DATA= UMK1 OUT= OUTDAS Solution Summary Variables Solved 11 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E‐8 Maximum CC 1.44E‐15 Maximum Iterations 1 Total Iterations 90 Average Iterations 1 Observations Processed Read 90 Solved 90 Variables Solved For PKM MOUS PBM PTK PBB TBP PENU PEND TABS PKON PPKS
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Simultaneous Simulation Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted
Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label
PKM 90 90 16283333 25646916 16282049 15613858 PKM MOUS 90 90 31888889 34109521 31887605 27465354 MOUS PBM 90 90 2.3599E8 2.4428E8 2.3391E8 1.3142E8 PBM PTK 90 90 27517911 23039513 27517423 20035686 PTK PBB 90 90 17275378 24074948 17275175 22739142 PBB TBP 90 90 2.8079E8 2.776E8 2.787E8 1.6325E8 TBP PENU 90 90 3.8489E8 3.5302E8 3.8273E8 2.2519E8 PENU PEND 90 90 1.0411E8 1.05E8 1.0403E8 68860037 PEND TABS 90 90 4872222 2733799 4871744 2060576 TABS PKON 90 90 22359356 12218270 22357864 10831897 PKON PPKS 90 90 6206222 5185688 6204833 3804638 PPKS
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Statistics of fit Mean Mean % Mean Abs Mean Abs RMS RMS % Variable N Error Error Error % Error Error Error R‐Square Label
PKM 90 ‐1283.8 97.2901 14025117 359.8 20019418 553.7 0.3839 PKM MOUS 90 ‐1283.8 26.1407 14025117 107.7 20019418 175.6 0.6517 MOUS PBM 90 ‐2086759 66.7619 1.1818E8 90.9503 1.9479E8 161.9 0.3570 PBM PTK 90 ‐488.6 17.7607 9781172 49.6855 13642632 68.9435 0.6454 PTK PBB 90 ‐202.6 48.7310 5566969 77.0617 7973205 129.0 0.8891 PBB TBP 90 ‐2087450 50.9776 1.244E8 74.3853 2.0118E8 125.4 0.4689 TBP PENU 90 ‐2166006 44.5737 1.5037E8 66.4472 2.2753E8 108.1 0.5799 PENU PEND 90 ‐78555.9 78.3112 55340052 104.8 76411516 161.9 0.4645 PEND TABS 90 ‐478.7 9.2006 1361742 26.7438 1795265 31.5740 0.5639 TABS PKON 90 ‐1492.0 6.5961 3623928 18.9449 4728161 24.6153 0.8486 PKON PPKS 90 ‐1389.4 20.9806 2417411 45.8323 3243503 58.4477 0.6044 PPKS Theil Forecast Error Statistics MSE Decomposition Proportions Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef Variable N MSE (R) (UM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC) U1 U
PKM 90 4.008E14 0.62 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.25 0.75 0.6616 0.3795 MOUS 90 4.008E14 0.81 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.11 0.89 0.4300 0.2261 PBM 90 3.794E16 0.60 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.33 0.67 0.5751 0.3211 PTK 90 1.861E14 0.81 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.05 0.95 0.3810 0.1955 PBB 90 6.357E13 0.94 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.03 0.97 0.2701 0.1375 TBP 90 4.047E16 0.69 0.00 0.02 0.98 0.32 0.68 0.5109 0.2809 PENU 90 5.177E16 0.77 0.00 0.04 0.96 0.31 0.69 0.4368 0.2359 PEND 90 5.839E15 0.68 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.22 0.78 0.5182 0.2809 TABS 90 3.223E12 0.75 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.14 0.86 0.3218 0.1652 PKON 90 2.236E13 0.92 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.09 0.91 0.1858 0.0941 PPKS 90 1.052E13 0.78 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.18 0.82 0.4020 0.2115 Theil Relative Change Forecast Error Statistics Relative Change MSE Decomposition Proportions Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef Variable N MSE (R) (UM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC) U1 U
PKM 89 51.8114 0.53 0.01 0.51 0.47 0.11 0.87 1.1741 0.4857 MOUS 89 7.8432 0.68 0.01 0.60 0.39 0.25 0.73 1.0699 0.4202 PBM 89 6.4114 0.54 0.01 0.27 0.72 0.00 0.98 0.9494 0.4540 PTK 89 0.7762 0.73 0.01 0.35 0.64 0.08 0.91 0.8100 0.3616 PBB 89 2.8868 0.77 0.01 0.06 0.94 0.01 0.98 0.6318 0.3239 TBP 89 4.0456 0.55 0.01 0.20 0.79 0.00 0.99 0.9011 0.4516 PENU 89 2.6071 0.71 0.01 0.06 0.93 0.02 0.97 0.6998 0.3649 PEND 89 11.5039 0.74 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.15 0.84 0.6447 0.3641 TABS 89 0.1924 0.82 0.01 0.02 0.97 0.03 0.97 0.5595 0.2906 PKON 89 0.0818 0.91 0.01 0.00 0.99 0.04 0.95 0.4093 0.2120 PPKS 89 0.7872 0.79 0.01 0.04 0.95 0.02 0.98 0.6017 0.3107
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Lampiran 5. Program Simulasi 1. Penurunan Suku Bunga Kredit (SBK) sebesar 20 persen Menggunakan Metode NEWTON dan Prosedur SIMNLIN dengan Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
MODEL EKONOMI USAHA KECIL OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER; DATA UMK1; SET UMK1; MOUS = PKM + ALK; TBP = PBM + PBB + PTK; PEND = PENU ‐ TBP; SBK = SBK*0.8; RUN; PROC SIMNLIN OUT=OUTDAS STAT SIMULATE OUTPREDICT THEIL; ENDOGENOUS PKM MOUS PBM PTK PBB TBP PENU PEND TABS PKON PPKS; INSTRUMENTS SBK ALK PO TP JAK JTK PBBM PTKP KTK JAS DSK DJG DPP PSO PNTK LTU PI DJST; PARM A0 15104932 A1 ‐1071138 A2 2.682963 A3 2.554394 A4 ‐49707.0 A5 16640364 B0 20367366 B1 2.397221 B2 630.0195 B3 64441.69 C0 5530032 C1 0.153124 C2 0.863239 D0 2986745 D1 0.375570 D2 0.949213 E0 ‐13490000 E1 1.036368 E2 1.491545 E3 2.996431
E4 2714.439 E5 35448025 F0 2205311 F1 0.006153 F2 ‐282239 F3 664601.6 F4 3583772 G0 4479184 G1 0.018831 G2 1483237 G3 ‐553154 G4 1.315749 H0 ‐3467540 H1 0.017714 H2 4092241 H3 0.420493 H4 305509.6;
PKM = A0+A1*SBK+A2*TABS+A3*PNTK+A4*LTU+A5*DSK; MOUS = PKM + ALK; PBM = B0+B1*MOUS+B2*PI+B3*JTK; PBB = C0+C1*MOUS+C2*PBBM; PTK = D0+D1*MOUS+D2*PTKP; PENU = E0+E1*PBM+E2*PBB+E3*PTK+E4*PO+E5*DPP; TBP = PBM + PBB + PTK; PEND = PENU ‐ TBP; TABS = F0+F1*PEND+F2*JAK+F3*TP+F4*DJST; PKON = G0+G1*PEND+G2*JAK+G3*TP+G4*KTK; PPKS = H0+H1*PEND+H2*JAS+H3*PSO+H4*DJG; RUN;
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Lampiran 6. Hasil Simulasi 1. Penurunan Suku Bunga Kredit (SBK) sebesar 20 persen Menggunakan Metode NEWTON dan Prosedur SIMNLIN dengan Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
MODEL EKONOMI USAHA KECIL
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Model Summary Model Variables 11 Endogenous 11 Parameters 37 Equations 11 Number of Statements 11 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation Data Set Options DATA= UMK1 OUT= OUTDAS Solution Summary Variables Solved 11 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E‐8 Maximum CC 1.95E‐15 Maximum Iterations 1 Total Iterations 90 Average Iterations 1 Observations Processed Read 90 Solved 90 Variables Solved For PKM MOUS PBM PTK PBB TBP PENU PEND TABS PKON PPKS
The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label
PKM 90 90 16283333 25646916 20425242 14419998 PKM MOUS 90 90 31888889 34109521 36030798 26571351 MOUS PBM 90 90 2.3599E8 2.4428E8 2.4384E8 1.2948E8 PBM PTK 90 90 27517911 23039513 29073481 19775132 PTK PBB 90 90 17275378 24074948 17909597 22684135 PBB TBP 90 90 2.8079E8 2.776E8 2.9082E8 1.6095E8 TBP PENU 90 90 3.8489E8 3.5302E8 3.9863E8 2.2203E8 PENU PEND 90 90 1.0411E8 1.05E8 1.0781E8 68105241 PEND TABS 90 90 4872222 2733799 4895000 2059608 TABS PKON 90 90 22359356 12218270 22429038 10819989 PKON PPKS 90 90 6206222 5185688 6271785 3795078 PPKS
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Lampiran 7. Program Simulasi.2. Kenaikan Pengambilan Kredit (PKM) sebesar 100 persen Menggunakan Metode NEWTON dan Prosedur SIMNLIN dengan Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
MODEL EKONOMI USAHA KECIL OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER; DATA UMK1; SET UMK1; MOUS = PKM + ALK; TBP = PBM + PBB + PTK; PEND = PENU ‐ TBP; PKM = PKM*2.0; RUN; PROC SIMNLIN OUT=OUTDAS STAT SIMULATE OUTPREDICT THEIL; ENDOGENOUS /*PKM*/ MOUS PBM PTK PBB TBP PENU PEND TABS PKON PPKS; INSTRUMENTS SBK ALK PO TP JAK JTK PBBM PTKP KTK JAS DSK DJG DPP PSO PNTK LTU PI DJST; PARM A0 15104932 A1 ‐1071138 A2 2.682963 A3 2.554394
A4 ‐49707.0 A5 16640364 B0 20367366 B1 2.397221 B2 630.0195 B3 64441.69 C0 5530032 C1 0.153124 C2 0.863239 D0 2986745 D1 0.375570 D2 0.949213 E0 ‐13490000 E1 1.036368 E2 1.491545 E3 2.996431
E4 2714.439 E5 35448025 F0 2205311 F1 0.006153 F2 ‐282239 F3 664601.6 F4 3583772 G0 4479184 G1 0.018831 G2 1483237 G3 ‐553154 G4 1.315749 H0 ‐3467540 H1 0.017714 H2 4092241 H3 0.420493 H4 305509.6;
/*PKM = A0+A1*SBK+A2*TABS+A3*PNTK+A4*LTU+A5*DSK;*/ MOUS = PKM + ALK; PBM = B0+B1*MOUS+B2*PI+B3*JTK; PBB = C0+C1*MOUS+C2*PBBM; PTK = D0+D1*MOUS+D2*PTKP; PENU = E0+E1*PBM+E2*PBB+E3*PTK+E4*PO+E5*DPP; TBP = PBM + PBB + PTK; PEND = PENU ‐ TBP; TABS = F0+F1*PEND+F2*JAK+F3*TP+F4*DJST; PKON = G0+G1*PEND+G2*JAK+G3*TP+G4*KTK; PPKS = H0+H1*PEND+H2*JAS+H3*PSO+H4*DJG; RUN;
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Lampiran 8. Hasil Simulasi.2. Kenaikan Pengambilan Kredit (PKM) sebesar 100 persen Menggunakan Metode NEWTON dan Prosedur SIMNLIN dengan Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
MODEL EKONOMI USAHA KECIL
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Model Summary Model Variables 10 Endogenous 10 Parameters 37 Equations 10 Number of Statements 10
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Simultaneous Simulation Data Set Options DATA= UMK1 OUT= OUTDAS Solution Summary Variables Solved 10 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E‐8 Maximum CC 9.5E‐16 Maximum Iterations 1 Total Iterations 90 Average Iterations 1 Observations Processed Read 90 Solved 90 Variables Solved For MOUS PBM PTK PBB TBP PENU PEND TABS PKON PPKS
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Simultaneous Simulation Descriptive Statistics
ctual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label
MOUS 90 90 31888889 34109521 48172222 57880503 MOUS PBM 90 90 2.3599E8 2.4428E8 2.7294E8 1.954E8 PBM PTK 90 90 27517911 23039513 33633436 27668651 PTK PBB 90 90 17275378 24074948 19768741 24594485 PBB TBP 90 90 2.8079E8 2.776E8 3.2635E8 2.3809E8 TBP PENU 90 90 3.8489E8 3.5302E8 4.4523E8 3.1738E8 PENU PEND 90 90 1.0411E8 1.05E8 1.1889E8 85237362 PEND TABS 90 90 4872222 2733799 4963150 2125422 TABS PKON 90 90 22359356 12218270 22637610 11085849 PKON PPKS 90 90 6206222 5185688 6467985 3828359 PPKS
225
Lampiran 9. Program Simulasi.3. Perubahan Sumber Kredit (DSK) dari Non Bank Menjadi Sumber Kredit yang Berasal dari Bank Menggunakan Metode NEWTON dan Prosedur SIMNLIN dengan Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
MODEL EKONOMI USAHA KECIL OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER; DATA UMK1; SET UMK1; MOUS = PKM + ALK; TBP = PBM + PBB + PTK; PEND = PENU ‐ TBP; DSK = 1; RUN; PROC SIMNLIN OUT=OUTDAS STAT SIMULATE OUTPREDICT THEIL; ENDOGENOUS PKM MOUS PBM PTK PBB TBP PENU PEND TABS PKON PPKS; INSTRUMENTS SBK ALK PO TP JAK JTK PBBM PTKP KTK JAS DSK DJG DPP PSO PNTK LTU PI DJST; PARM A0 15104932 A1 ‐1071138 A2 2.682963 A3 2.554394
A4 ‐49707.0 A5 16640364 B0 20367366 B1 2.397221 B2 630.0195 B3 64441.69 C0 5530032 C1 0.153124 C2 0.863239 D0 2986745 D1 0.375570 D2 0.949213 E0 ‐13490000 E1 1.036368 E2 1.491545 E3 2.996431
E4 2714.439 E5 35448025 F0 2205311 F1 0.006153 F2 ‐282239 F3 664601.6 F4 3583772 G0 4479184 G1 0.018831 G2 1483237 G3 ‐553154 G4 1.315749 H0 ‐3467540 H1 0.017714 H2 4092241 H3 0.420493 H4 305509.6;
PKM = A0+A1*SBK+A2*TABS+A3*PNTK+A4*LTU+A5*DSK; MOUS = PKM + ALK; PBM = B0+B1*MOUS+B2*PI+B3*JTK; PBB = C0+C1*MOUS+C2*PBBM; PTK = D0+D1*MOUS+D2*PTKP; PENU = E0+E1*PBM+E2*PBB+E3*PTK+E4*PO+E5*DPP; TBP = PBM + PBB + PTK; PEND = PENU ‐ TBP; TABS = F0+F1*PEND+F2*JAK+F3*TP+F4*DJST; PKON = G0+G1*PEND+G2*JAK+G3*TP+G4*KTK; PPKS = H0+H1*PEND+H2*JAS+H3*PSO+H4*DJG; RUN;
226
Lampiran 10. Hasil Simulasi.3. Perubahan Sumber Kredit (DSK) dari Non Bank Menjadi Sumber Kredit yang Berasal dari Bank Menggunakan Metode NEWTON dan Prosedur SIMNLIN dengan Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
MODEL EKONOMI USAHA KECIL
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Model Summary Model Variables 11 Endogenous 11 Parameters 37 Equations 11 Number of Statements 11 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation Data Set Options DATA= UMK1 OUT= OUTDAS Solution Summary Variables Solved 11 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E‐8 Maximum CC 6.25E‐16 Maximum Iterations 1 Total Iterations 90 Average Iterations 1 Observations Processed Read 90 Solved 90 Variables Solved For PKM MOUS PBM PTK PBB TBP PENU PEND TABS PKON PPKS
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Simultaneous Simulation Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted
Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label
PKM 90 90 16283333 25646916 26606646 12604398 PKM MOUS 90 90 31888889 34109521 42212201 24940740 MOUS PBM 90 90 2.3599E8 2.4428E8 2.5866E8 1.2607E8 PBM PTK 90 90 27517911 23039513 31395031 19645408 PTK PBB 90 90 17275378 24074948 18856119 22659281 PBB TBP 90 90 2.8079E8 2.776E8 3.0891E8 1.5742E8 TBP PENU 90 90 3.8489E8 3.5302E8 4.2236E8 2.183E8 PENU PEND 90 90 1.0411E8 1.05E8 1.1345E8 67812805 PEND TABS 90 90 4872222 2733799 4929696 2054193 TABS PKON 90 90 22359356 12218270 22535225 10789955 PKON PPKS 90 90 6206222 5185688 6371674 3795735 PPKS
227 Lampiran 11. Program Simulasi.4. Perubahan Sumber Kredit (DSK) dari Bank
Menjadi Sumber Kredit yang Berasal dari Non Bank Menggunakan Metode NEWTON dan Prosedur SIMNLIN dengan Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
MODEL EKONOMI USAHA KECIL
OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER; DATA UMK1; SET UMK1; MOUS = PKM + ALK; TBP = PBM + PBB + PTK; PEND = PENU ‐ TBP; DSK = 0; RUN; PROC SIMNLIN OUT=OUTDAS STAT SIMULATE OUTPREDICT THEIL; ENDOGENOUS PKM MOUS PBM PTK PBB TBP PENU PEND TABS PKON PPKS; INSTRUMENTS SBK ALK PO TP JAK JTK PBBM PTKP KTK JAS DSK DJG DPP PSO PNTK LTU PI DJST; PARM A0 15104932 A1 ‐1071138 A2 2.682963 A3 2.554394
A4 ‐49707.0 A5 16640364 B0 20367366 B1 2.397221 B2 630.0195 B3 64441.69 C0 5530032 C1 0.153124 C2 0.863239 D0 2986745 D1 0.375570 D2 0.949213 E0 ‐13490000 E1 1.036368 E2 1.491545 E3 2.996431
E4 2714.439 E5 35448025 F0 2205311 F1 0.006153 F2 ‐282239 F3 664601.6 F4 3583772 G0 4479184 G1 0.018831 G2 1483237 G3 ‐553154 G4 1.315749 H0 ‐3467540 H1 0.017714 H2 4092241 H3 0.420493 H4 305509.6;
PKM = A0+A1*SBK+A2*TABS+A3*PNTK+A4*LTU+A5*DSK; MOUS = PKM + ALK; PBM = B0+B1*MOUS+B2*PI+B3*JTK; PBB = C0+C1*MOUS+C2*PBBM; PTK = D0+D1*MOUS+D2*PTKP; PENU = E0+E1*PBM+E2*PBB+E3*PTK+E4*PO+E5*DPP; TBP = PBM + PBB + PTK; PEND = PENU ‐ TBP; TABS = F0+F1*PEND+F2*JAK+F3*TP+F4*DJST; PKON = G0+G1*PEND+G2*JAK+G3*TP+G4*KTK; PPKS = H0+H1*PEND+H2*JAS+H3*PSO+H4*DJG; RUN;
228
Lampiran 12. Hasil Simulasi.4. Perubahan Sumber Kredit (DSK) dari Bank Menjadi Sumber Kredit yang Berasal dari Non Bank Menggunakan Metode NEWTON dan Prosedur SIMNLIN dengan Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
MODEL EKONOMI USAHA KECIL
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Model Summary Model Variables 11 Endogenous 11 Parameters 37 Equations 11 Number of Statements 11 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation Data Set Options DATA= UMK1 OUT= OUTDAS Solution Summary Variables Solved 11 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E‐8 Maximum CC 9.22E‐15 Maximum Iterations 1 Total Iterations 90 Average Iterations 1 Observations Processed Read 90 Solved 90 Variables Solved For PKM MOUS PBM PTK PBB TBP PENU PEND TABS PKON PPKS
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation
Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label
PKM 90 90 16283333 25646916 9711852 12604398 PKM MOUS 90 90 31888889 34109521 25317407 24940740 MOUS PBM 90 90 2.3599E8 2.4428E8 2.1816E8 1.2607E8 PBM PTK 90 90 27517911 23039513 25049853 19645408 PTK PBB 90 90 17275378 24074948 16269120 22659281 PBB TBP 90 90 2.8079E8 2.776E8 2.5948E8 1.5742E8 TBP PENU 90 90 3.8489E8 3.5302E8 3.5751E8 2.183E8 PENU PEND 90 90 1.0411E8 1.05E8 98035992 67812805 PEND TABS 90 90 4872222 2733799 4834865 2054193 TABS PKON 90 90 22359356 12218270 22244997 10789955 PKON PPKS 90 90 6206222 5185688 6098661 3795735 PPKS
229
Lampiran 13. Program Simulasi.5. Kenaikan Harga Jual Produk (PO) sebesar 10 persen Menggunakan Metode NEWTON dan Prosedur SIMNLIN dengan Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
MODEL EKONOMI USAHA KECIL
OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER; DATA UMK1; SET UMK1; MOUS = PKM + ALK; TBP = PBM + PBB + PTK; PEND = PENU ‐ TBP; PO = PO*1.1; RUN; PROC SIMNLIN OUT=OUTDAS STAT SIMULATE OUTPREDICT THEIL; ENDOGENOUS PKM MOUS PBM PTK PBB TBP PENU PEND TABS PKON PPKS; INSTRUMENTS SBK ALK PO TP JAK JTK PBBM PTKP KTK JAS DSK DJG DPP PSO PNTK LTU PI DJST; PARM A0 15104932 A1 ‐1071138 A2 2.682963 A3 2.554394
A4 ‐49707.0 A5 16640364 B0 20367366 B1 2.397221 B2 630.0195 B3 64441.69 C0 5530032 C1 0.153124 C2 0.863239 D0 2986745 D1 0.375570 D2 0.949213 E0 ‐13490000 E1 1.036368 E2 1.491545 E3 2.996431
E4 2714.439 E5 35448025 F0 2205311 F1 0.006153 F2 ‐282239 F3 664601.6 F4 3583772 G0 4479184 G1 0.018831 G2 1483237 G3 ‐553154 G4 1.315749 H0 ‐3467540 H1 0.017714 H2 4092241 H3 0.420493 H4 305509.6;
PKM = A0+A1*SBK+A2*TABS+A3*PNTK+A4*LTU+A5*DSK; MOUS = PKM + ALK; PBM = B0+B1*MOUS+B2*PI+B3*JTK; PBB = C0+C1*MOUS+C2*PBBM; PTK = D0+D1*MOUS+D2*PTKP; PENU = E0+E1*PBM+E2*PBB+E3*PTK+E4*PO+E5*DPP; TBP = PBM + PBB + PTK; PEND = PENU ‐ TBP; TABS = F0+F1*PEND+F2*JAK+F3*TP+F4*DJST; PKON = G0+G1*PEND+G2*JAK+G3*TP+G4*KTK; PPKS = H0+H1*PEND+H2*JAS+H3*PSO+H4*DJG; RUN;
230
Lampiran 14. Hasil Simulasi.5. Kenaikan Harga Jual Produk (PO) sebesar 10 persen Menggunakan Metode NEWTON dan Prosedur SIMNLIN dengan Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
MODEL EKONOMI USAHA KECIL
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Model Summary Model Variables 11 Endogenous 11 Parameters 37 Equations 11 Number of Statements 11 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation Data Set Options DATA= UMK1 OUT= OUTDAS Solution Summary Variables Solved 11 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E‐8 Maximum CC 1.35E‐15 Maximum Iterations 1 Total Iterations 90 Average Iterations 1 Observations Processed Read 90 Solved 90 Variables Solved For PKM MOUS PBM PTK PBB TBP PENU PEND TABS PKON PPKS
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation
Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label
PKM 90 90 16283333 25646916 16326766 15624827 PKM MOUS 90 90 31888889 34109521 31932321 27475897 MOUS PBM 90 90 2.3599E8 2.4428E8 2.3401E8 1.3143E8 PBM PTK 90 90 27517911 23039513 27534217 20039424 PTK PBB 90 90 17275378 24074948 17282022 22739591 PBB TBP 90 90 2.8079E8 2.776E8 2.7883E8 1.6327E8 TBP PENU 90 90 3.8489E8 3.5302E8 3.8557E8 2.259E8 PENU PEND 90 90 1.0411E8 1.05E8 1.0674E8 70298601 PEND TABS 90 90 4872222 2733799 4888410 2062526 TABS PKON 90 90 22359356 12218270 22408871 10836238 PKON PPKS 90 90 6206222 5185688 6252815 3813195 PPKS
231
Lampiran 15. Program Simulasi.6. Perluasan Daerah Pemasaran Produk (DPP) dari Hanya di Wilayah Yogayakarta dan Jawa Tengah Menjadi Wilayah yang Mencakup Jawa Timur, Jawa Barat, Jakarta dan Sekitarnya, Menggunakan Metode NEWTON dan Prosedur SIMNLIN dengan Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
MODEL EKONOMI USAHA KECIL OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER; DATA UMK1; SET UMK1; MOUS = PKM + ALK; TBP = PBM + PBB + PTK; PEND = PENU ‐ TBP; DPP = 1; RUN; PROC SIMNLIN OUT=OUTDAS STAT SIMULATE OUTPREDICT THEIL; ENDOGENOUS PKM MOUS PBM PTK PBB TBP PENU PEND TABS PKON PPKS; INSTRUMENTS SBK ALK PO TP JAK JTK PBBM PTKP KTK JAS DSK DJG DPP PSO PNTK LTU PI DJST; PARM A0 15104932 A1 ‐1071138 A2 2.682963 A3 2.554394
A4 ‐49707.0 A5 16640364 B0 20367366 B1 2.397221 B2 630.0195 B3 64441.69 C0 5530032 C1 0.153124 C2 0.863239 D0 2986745 D1 0.375570 D2 0.949213 E0 ‐13490000 E1 1.036368 E2 1.491545 E3 2.996431
E4 2714.439 E5 35448025 F0 2205311 F1 0.006153 F2 ‐282239 F3 664601.6 F4 3583772 G0 4479184 G1 0.018831 G2 1483237 G3 ‐553154 G4 1.315749 H0 ‐3467540 H1 0.017714 H2 4092241 H3 0.420493 H4 305509.6;
PKM = A0+A1*SBK+A2*TABS+A3*PNTK+A4*LTU+A5*DSK; MOUS = PKM + ALK; PBM = B0+B1*MOUS+B2*PI+B3*JTK; PBB = C0+C1*MOUS+C2*PBBM; PTK = D0+D1*MOUS+D2*PTKP; PENU = E0+E1*PBM+E2*PBB+E3*PTK+E4*PO+E5*DPP; TBP = PBM + PBB + PTK; PEND = PENU ‐ TBP; TABS = F0+F1*PEND+F2*JAK+F3*TP+F4*DJST; PKON = G0+G1*PEND+G2*JAK+G3*TP+G4*KTK; PPKS = H0+H1*PEND+H2*JAS+H3*PSO+H4*DJG; RUN;
232
Lampiran 16. Hasil Simulasi.6. Perluasan Daerah Pemasaran Produk (DPP) dari Hanya di Wilayah Yogayakarta dan Jawa Tengah Menjadi Wilayah yang Mencakup Jawa Timur, Jawa Barat, Jakarta dan Sekitarnya, Menggunakan Metode NEWTON dan Prosedur SIMNLIN dengan Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
MODEL EKONOMI USAHA KECIL The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure Model Summary Model Variables 11 Endogenous 11 Parameters 37 Equations 11 Number of Statements 11 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation Data Set Options DATA= UMK1 OUT= OUTDAS Solution Summary Variables Solved 11 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E‐8 Maximum CC 1.29E‐15 Maximum Iterations 1 Total Iterations 90 Average Iterations 1 Observations Processed Read 90 Solved 90 Variables Solved For PKM MOUS PBM PTK PBB TBP PENU PEND TABS PKON PPKS
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation
Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label
PKM 90 90 16283333 25646916 16559312 15484963 PKM MOUS 90 90 31888889 34109521 32164867 27345224 MOUS PBM 90 90 2.3599E8 2.4428E8 2.3457E8 1.3106E8 PBM PTK 90 90 27517911 23039513 27621554 20001320 PTK PBB 90 90 17275378 24074948 17317631 22727393 PBB TBP 90 90 2.8079E8 2.776E8 2.7951E8 1.6284E8 TBP PENU 90 90 3.8489E8 3.5302E8 4.0034E8 2.1634E8 PENU PEND 90 90 1.0411E8 1.05E8 1.2082E8 61784019 PEND TABS 90 90 4872222 2733799 4975085 2024887 TABS PKON 90 90 22359356 12218270 22674137 10664442 PKON PPKS 90 90 6206222 5185688 6502346 3735138 PPKS
233 Lampiran 17. Program Simulasi.7. Perubahan Daerah Pemasaran Produk (DPP)
dari yang Mencakup Wilayah Jawa Timur, Jawa Barat, Jakarta dan Sekitarnya Menjadi Hanya di Wilayah Yogayakarta dan Jawa Tengah, Menggunakan Metode NEWTON dan Prosedur SIMNLIN dengan Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
MODEL EKONOMI USAHA KECIL OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER; DATA UMK1; SET UMK1; MOUS = PKM + ALK; TBP = PBM + PBB + PTK; PEND = PENU ‐ TBP; DPP = 0; RUN; PROC SIMNLIN OUT=OUTDAS STAT SIMULATE OUTPREDICT THEIL; ENDOGENOUS PKM MOUS PBM PTK PBB TBP PENU PEND TABS PKON PPKS; INSTRUMENTS SBK ALK PO TP JAK JTK PBBM PTKP KTK JAS DSK DJG DPP PSO PNTK LTU PI DJST; PARM A0 15104932 A1 ‐1071138 A2 2.682963 A3 2.554394
A4 ‐49707.0 A5 16640364 B0 20367366 B1 2.397221 B2 630.0195 B3 64441.69 C0 5530032 C1 0.153124 C2 0.863239 D0 2986745 D1 0.375570 D2 0.949213 E0 ‐13490000 E1 1.036368 E2 1.491545 E3 2.996431
E4 2714.439 E5 35448025 F0 2205311 F1 0.006153 F2 ‐282239 F3 664601.6 F4 3583772 G0 4479184 G1 0.018831 G2 1483237 G3 ‐553154 G4 1.315749 H0 ‐3467540 H1 0.017714 H2 4092241 H3 0.420493 H4 305509.6;
PKM = A0+A1*SBK+A2*TABS+A3*PNTK+A4*LTU+A5*DSK; MOUS = PKM + ALK; PBM = B0+B1*MOUS+B2*PI+B3*JTK; PBB = C0+C1*MOUS+C2*PBBM; PTK = D0+D1*MOUS+D2*PTKP; PENU = E0+E1*PBM+E2*PBB+E3*PTK+E4*PO+E5*DPP; TBP = PBM + PBB + PTK; PEND = PENU ‐ TBP; TABS = F0+F1*PEND+F2*JAK+F3*TP+F4*DJST; PKON = G0+G1*PEND+G2*JAK+G3*TP+G4*KTK; PPKS = H0+H1*PEND+H2*JAS+H3*PSO+H4*DJG; RUN;
234
Lampiran 18. Hasil Simulasi.7. Perubahan Daerah Pemasaran Produk (DPP) dari yang Mencakup Wilayah Jawa Timur, Jawa Barat, Jakarta dan Sekitarnya Menjadi Hanya di Wilayah Yogayakarta dan Jawa Tengah, Menggunakan Metode NEWTON dan Prosedur SIMNLIN dengan Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
MODEL EKONOMI USAHA KECIL The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure Model Summary Model Variables 11 Endogenous 11 Parameters 37 Equations 11 Number of Statements 11 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation Data Set Options DATA= UMK1 OUT= OUTDAS Solution Summary Variables Solved 11 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E‐8 Maximum CC 1.44E‐15 Maximum Iterations 1 Total Iterations 90 Average Iterations 1 Observations Processed Read 90 Solved 90 Variables Solved For PKM MOUS PBM PTK PBB TBP PENU PEND TABS PKON PPKS
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation
Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label
PKM 90 90 16283333 25646916 15965179 15484963 PKM MOUS 90 90 31888889 34109521 31570734 27345224 MOUS PBM 90 90 2.3599E8 2.4428E8 2.3315E8 1.3106E8 PBM PTK 90 90 27517911 23039513 27398415 20001320 PTK PBB 90 90 17275378 24074948 17226655 22727393 PBB TBP 90 90 2.8079E8 2.776E8 2.7777E8 1.6284E8 TBP PENU 90 90 3.8489E8 3.5302E8 3.6261E8 2.1634E8 PENU PEND 90 90 1.0411E8 1.05E8 84834970 61784019 PEND TABS 90 90 4872222 2733799 4753639 2024887 TABS PKON 90 90 22359356 12218270 21996409 10664442 PKON PPKS 90 90 6206222 5185688 5864818 3735138 PPKS
235
Lampiran 19. Program Simulasi.8. Kombinasi Simulasi.2 dan Simulasi.5 Menggunakan Metode NEWTON dan Prosedur SIMNLIN dengan Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
MODEL EKONOMI USAHA KECIL
OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER; DATA UMK1; SET UMK1; MOUS = PKM + ALK; TBP = PBM + PBB + PTK; PEND = PENU ‐ TBP; PKM = PKM*2.0; PO = PO*1.1; RUN; PROC SIMNLIN OUT=OUTDAS STAT SIMULATE OUTPREDICT THEIL; ENDOGENOUS /*PKM*/ MOUS PBM PTK PBB TBP PENU PEND TABS PKON PPKS; INSTRUMENTS SBK ALK PO TP JAK JTK PBBM PTKP KTK JAS DSK DJG DPP PSO PNTK LTU PI DJST; PARM A0 15104932 A1 ‐1071138 A2 2.682963 A3 2.554394
A4 ‐49707.0 A5 16640364 B0 20367366 B1 2.397221 B2 630.0195 B3 64441.69 C0 5530032 C1 0.153124 C2 0.863239 D0 2986745 D1 0.375570 D2 0.949213 E0 ‐13490000 E1 1.036368 E2 1.491545 E3 2.996431
E4 2714.439 E5 35448025 F0 2205311 F1 0.006153 F2 ‐282239 F3 664601.6 F4 3583772 G0 4479184 G1 0.018831 G2 1483237 G3 ‐553154 G4 1.315749 H0 ‐3467540 H1 0.017714 H2 4092241 H3 0.420493 H4 305509.6;
/*PKM = A0+A1*SBK+A2*TABS+A3*PNTK+A4*LTU+A5*DSK;*/ MOUS = PKM + ALK; PBM = B0+B1*MOUS+B2*PI+B3*JTK; PBB = C0+C1*MOUS+C2*PBBM; PTK = D0+D1*MOUS+D2*PTKP; PENU = E0+E1*PBM+E2*PBB+E3*PTK+E4*PO+E5*DPP; TBP = PBM + PBB + PTK; PEND = PENU ‐ TBP; TABS = F0+F1*PEND+F2*JAK+F3*TP+F4*DJST; PKON = G0+G1*PEND+G2*JAK+G3*TP+G4*KTK; PPKS = H0+H1*PEND+H2*JAS+H3*PSO+H4*DJG; RUN;
236
Lampiran 20. Hasil Simulasi.8. Kombinasi Simulasi.2 dan Simulasi.5 Menggunakan Metode NEWTON dan Prosedur SIMNLIN dengan Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
MODEL EKONOMI USAHA KECIL The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure Model Summary Model Variables 10 Endogenous 10 Parameters 37 Equations 10 Number of Statements 10
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation
Data Set Options DATA= UMK1 OUT= OUTDAS Solution Summary Variables Solved 10 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E‐8 Maximum CC 8.91E‐16 Maximum Iterations 1 Total Iterations 90 Average Iterations 1 Observations Processed Read 90 Solved 90 Variables Solved For MOUS PBM PTK PBB TBP PENU PEND TABS PKON PPKS The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label
MOUS 90 90 31888889 34109521 48172222 57880503 MOUS PBM 90 90 2.3599E8 2.4428E8 2.7294E8 1.954E8 PBM PTK 90 90 27517911 23039513 33633436 27668651 PTK PBB 90 90 17275378 24074948 19768741 24594485 PBB TBP 90 90 2.8079E8 2.776E8 3.2635E8 2.3809E8 TBP PENU 90 90 3.8489E8 3.5302E8 4.479E8 3.1766E8 PENU PEND 90 90 1.0411E8 1.05E8 1.2155E8 86222268 PEND TABS 90 90 4872222 2733799 4979566 2127032 TABS PKON 90 90 22359356 12218270 22687849 11089574 PKON PPKS 90 90 6206222 5185688 6515245 3835578 PPKS
237
Lampiran 21. Program Simulasi.9. Kombinasi Simulasi.2 dan Simulasi.6 Menggunakan Metode NEWTON dan Prosedur SIMNLIN dengan Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
MODEL EKONOMI USAHA KECI OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER; DATA UMK1; SET UMK1; MOUS = PKM + ALK; TBP = PBM + PBB + PTK; PEND = PENU ‐ TBP; PKM = PKM*2.0; DPP = 1; RUN; PROC SIMNLIN OUT=OUTDAS STAT SIMULATE OUTPREDICT THEIL; ENDOGENOUS /*PKM*/ MOUS PBM PTK PBB TBP PENU PEND TABS PKON PPKS; INSTRUMENTS SBK ALK PO TP JAK JTK PBBM PTKP KTK JAS DSK DJG DPP PSO PNTK LTU PI DJST; PARM A0 15104932 A1 ‐1071138 A2 2.682963 A3 2.554394
A4 ‐49707.0 A5 16640364 B0 20367366 B1 2.397221 B2 630.0195 B3 64441.69 C0 5530032 C1 0.153124 C2 0.863239 D0 2986745 D1 0.375570 D2 0.949213 E0 ‐13490000 E1 1.036368 E2 1.491545 E3 2.996431
E4 2714.439 E5 35448025 F0 2205311 F1 0.006153 F2 ‐282239 F3 664601.6 F4 3583772 G0 4479184 G1 0.018831 G2 1483237 G3 ‐553154 G4 1.315749 H0 ‐3467540 H1 0.017714 H2 4092241 H3 0.420493 H4 305509.6;
/*PKM = A0+A1*SBK+A2*TABS+A3*PNTK+A4*LTU+A5*DSK;*/ MOUS = PKM + ALK; PBM = B0+B1*MOUS+B2*PI+B3*JTK; PBB = C0+C1*MOUS+C2*PBBM; PTK = D0+D1*MOUS+D2*PTKP; PENU = E0+E1*PBM+E2*PBB+E3*PTK+E4*PO+E5*DPP; TBP = PBM + PBB + PTK; PEND = PENU ‐ TBP; TABS = F0+F1*PEND+F2*JAK+F3*TP+F4*DJST; PKON = G0+G1*PEND+G2*JAK+G3*TP+G4*KTK; PPKS = H0+H1*PEND+H2*JAS+H3*PSO+H4*DJG; RUN;
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Lampiran 22. Hasil Simulasi.9. Kombinasi Simulasi.2 dan Simulasi.6 Menggunakan Metode NEWTON dan Prosedur SIMNLIN dengan Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
MODEL EKONOMI USAHA KECIL The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure Model Summary Model Variables 10 Endogenous 10 Parameters 37 Equations 10 Number of Statements 10
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation
Data Set Options DATA= UMK1 OUT= OUTDAS Solution Summary Variables Solved 10 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E‐8 Maximum CC 5.66E‐16 Maximum Iterations 1 Total Iterations 90 Average Iterations 1 Observations Processed Read 90 Solved 90 Variables Solved For MOUS PBM PTK PBB TBP PENU PEND TABS PKON PPKS The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted
Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label
MOUS 90 90 31888889 34109521 48172222 57880503 MOUS PBM 90 90 2.3599E8 2.4428E8 2.7294E8 1.954E8 PBM PTK 90 90 27517911 23039513 33633436 27668651 PTK PBB 90 90 17275378 24074948 19768741 24594485 PBB TBP 90 90 2.8079E8 2.776E8 3.2635E8 2.3809E8 TBP PENU 90 90 3.8489E8 3.5302E8 4.6177E8 3.0816E8 PENU PEND 90 90 1.0411E8 1.05E8 1.3543E8 76529067 PEND TABS 90 90 4872222 2733799 5064936 2086851 TABS PKON 90 90 22359356 12218270 22949120 10916681 PKON PPKS 90 90 6206222 5185688 6761018 3739503 PPKS
239 Lampiran 23. Program Simulasi.10. Kombinasi Simulasi.2, Simulasi.5, dan
Simulasi.6 Menggunakan Metode NEWTON dan Prosedur SIMNLIN dengan Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
MODEL EKONOMI USAHA KECIL OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER; DATA UMK1; SET UMK1; MOUS = PKM + ALK; TBP = PBM + PBB + PTK; PEND = PENU ‐ TBP; PKM = PKM*2.0; PO = PO*1.1; DPP = 1; RUN; PROC SIMNLIN OUT=OUTDAS STAT SIMULATE OUTPREDICT THEIL; ENDOGENOUS /*PKM*/ MOUS PBM PTK PBB TBP PENU PEND TABS PKON PPKS; INSTRUMENTS SBK ALK PO TP JAK JTK PBBM PTKP KTK JAS DSK DJG DPP PSO PNTK LTU PI DJST; PARM A0 15104932 A1 ‐1071138 A2 2.682963 A3 2.554394
A4 ‐49707.0 A5 16640364 B0 20367366 B1 2.397221 B2 630.0195 B3 64441.69 C0 5530032 C1 0.153124 C2 0.863239 D0 2986745 D1 0.375570 D2 0.949213 E0 ‐13490000 E1 1.036368 E2 1.491545 E3 2.996431
E4 2714.439 E5 35448025 F0 2205311 F1 0.006153 F2 ‐282239 F3 664601.6 F4 3583772 G0 4479184 G1 0.018831 G2 1483237 G3 ‐553154 G4 1.315749 H0 ‐3467540 H1 0.017714 H2 4092241 H3 0.420493 H4 305509.6;
/*PKM = A0+A1*SBK+A2*TABS+A3*PNTK+A4*LTU+A5*DSK;*/ MOUS = PKM + ALK; PBM = B0+B1*MOUS+B2*PI+B3*JTK; PBB = C0+C1*MOUS+C2*PBBM; PTK = D0+D1*MOUS+D2*PTKP; PENU = E0+E1*PBM+E2*PBB+E3*PTK+E4*PO+E5*DPP; TBP = PBM + PBB + PTK; PEND = PENU ‐ TBP; TABS = F0+F1*PEND+F2*JAK+F3*TP+F4*DJST; PKON = G0+G1*PEND+G2*JAK+G3*TP+G4*KTK; PPKS = H0+H1*PEND+H2*JAS+H3*PSO+H4*DJG; RUN;
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Lampiran 24. Hasil Simulasi.10. Kombinasi Simulasi.2, Simulasi.5, dan Simulasi.6 Menggunakan Metode NEWTON dan Prosedur SIMNLIN dengan Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
MODEL EKONOMI USAHA KECIL The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure Model Summary Model Variables 10 Endogenous 10 Parameters 37 Equations 10 Number of Statements 10
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation
Data Set Options DATA= UMK1 OUT= OUTDAS Solution Summary Variables Solved 10 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E‐8 Maximum CC 5.22E‐16 Maximum Iterations 1 Total Iterations 90 Average Iterations 1 Observations Processed Read 90 Solved 90 Variables Solved For MOUS PBM PTK PBB TBP PENU PEND TABS PKON PPKS The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted
Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label
MOUS 90 90 31888889 34109521 48172222 57880503 MOUS PBM 90 90 2.3599E8 2.4428E8 2.7294E8 1.954E8 PBM PTK 90 90 27517911 23039513 33633436 27668651 PTK PBB 90 90 17275378 24074948 19768741 24594485 PBB TBP 90 90 2.8079E8 2.776E8 3.2635E8 2.3809E8 TBP PENU 90 90 3.8489E8 3.5302E8 4.6444E8 3.0845E8 PENU PEND 90 90 1.0411E8 1.05E8 1.381E8 77643481 PEND TABS 90 90 4872222 2733799 5081351 2088518 TABS PKON 90 90 22359356 12218270 22999360 10920512 PKON PPKS 90 90 6206222 5185688 6808277 3747017 PPKS
241 Lampiran 25. Program Estimasi Model Keterkaitan Kredit dan Ekonomi Wilayah
Menggunakan Metode Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) dan Prosedur SYSLIN Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER; DATA EKMAK14; SET EKMAK14; KBPR = KMB + KIKB; KUK = KMK + KIKK; RUN; PROC SYSLIN 2SLS DATA = EKMAK14 SIMPLE OUTEST=A; ENDOGENOUS KMB KIKB KMK KIKK KBRI KBPR KUK KKSP JG PDRB1
PDRB2 PDRB3 PDRB4; INSTRUMENTS SBBM SBBI JBPR SBPM JT JNB SBPI JD JBRI SBPK
RPN RNU SBSM JKSP JAKO AKO JMK JP JAK ;
MODEL KMB = SBBM JG JBPR; MODEL KIKB = SBBI JG JBPR; MODEL KMK = SBPM JT JG KBRI JNB; MODEL KIKK = SBPI JD JBRI; MODEL KBRI = SBPK RPN RNU JBRI PDRB1; IDENTITY KBPR = KMB + KIKB; IDENTITY KUK = KMK + KIKK; MODEL KKSP = SBSM JKSP JG JAKO AKO JMK; MODEL JG = PDRB2 PDRB3 PDRB4; MODEL PDRB1 = KBPR KKSP JP JAK; MODEL PDRB2 = KKSP JP JAK; MODEL PDRB3 = KUK JP JAK; MODEL PDRB4 = KBPR KUK JP; RUN; MODEL PDRB3 = KUK JP JAK; MODEL PDRB4 = KBPR KUK JP; RUN;
242
Lampiran 26. Hasil Estimasi Model Keterkaitan Kredit dan Ekonomi Wilayah
Menggunakan Metode Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) dan Prosedur SYSLIN Software SAS/ETS ver.9.1
Descriptive Statistics
uncorrected Std Variables Sum Mean SS Variance Deviation Variables Intercept 174.0 1.0000 174.0 0 0 Intercept SBBM 7412.1 42.5983 322029 36.3349 6.0278 SBBM SBBI 7469.0 42.9250 351238 177.1 13.3069 SBBI JBPR 3165.0 18.1897 65897.0 48.1315 6.9377 JBPR SBPM 6646.2 38.1967 341296 505.4 22.4809 SBPM JT 5.671E10 3.2594E8 2.616E19 4.435E16 2.1059E8 JT JNB 3529753 20285.9 8.383E10 70647192 8405.2 JNB SBPI 4814.6 27.6700 146281 75.4980 8.6890 SBPI JD 2.994E10 1.7205E8 1.305E19 4.568E16 2.1372E8 JD JBRI 4028.0 23.1494 102554 53.8041 7.3351 JBRI SBPK 6688.8 38.4417 351024 542.7 23.2967 SBPK RPN 650977 3741.2 2.6134E9 1028447 1014.1 RPN RNU 150869 867.1 1.3746E8 38409.5 196.0 RNU SBSM 6214.4 35.7150 243700 125.7 11.2133 SBSM JKSP 35106.0 201.8 8979738 10964.2 104.7 JKSP JAKO 13246517 76129.4 1.428E12 2.4251E9 49244.9 JAKO AKO 7176729 41245.6 3.933E11 5.6221E8 23710.9 AKO JMK 3019771 17355.0 7.513E10 1.3133E8 11459.9 JMK JP 1.7465E8 1003717 1.919E14 9.593E10 309718 JP JAK 87654038 503759 4.718E13 1.748E10 132194 JAK KMB 7.7556E9 44572298 6.141E17 1.552E15 39390314 KMB KIKB 5.324E9 30597725 3.238E17 9.298E14 30493371 KIKB KMK 2.894E10 1.663E8 6.731E18 1.109E16 1.0533E8 KMK KIKK 6.6538E9 38240379 5.937E17 1.961E15 44285402 KIKK KBRI 1.309E10 75249350 1.222E18 1.367E15 36977653 KBRI KBPR 1.308E10 75170023 1.629E18 3.731E15 61083961 KBPR KUK 3.559E10 2.0454E8 9.918E18 1.525E16 1.235E8 KUK KKSP 9824569 56463.0 8.529E11 1.7233E9 41512.5 KKSP JG 1.384E10 79538080 2.077E18 5.644E15 75126792 JG PDRB1 1.576E11 9.0575E8 1.77E20 1.978E17 4.4471E8 PDRB1 PDRB2 1.337E11 7.6823E8 2.963E20 1.119E18 1.0578E9 PDRB2 PDRB3 1.04E11 5.978E8 9.966E19 2.166E17 4.6546E8 PDRB3 PDRB4 5.065E10 2.9107E8 1.682E19 1.198E16 1.0947E8 PDRB4
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1. Persamaan Kredit Modal Kerja dari Bank Perkreditan Rakyat: KMB The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model KMB Dependent Variable KMB Label KMB Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 8.704E16 2.901E16 27.32 <.0001 Error 170 1.805E17 1.062E15 Corrected Total 173 2.684E17 Root MSE 32587653.8 R‐Square 0.32531 Dependent Mean 44572298.4 Adj R‐Sq 0.31340 Coeff Var 73.11190 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 1110252 20605046 0.05 0.9571 Intercept SBBM 1 ‐337994 420865.1 ‐0.80 0.4230 SBBM JG 1 0.013063 0.039793 0.33 0.7431 JG JBPR 1 3123809 378009.1 8.26 <.0001 JBPR
2. Persamaan Kredit Investasi dan Konsumsi dari Bank Perkreditan Rakyat: KIKB The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model KIKB Dependent Variable KIKB Label KIKB Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 3.422E16 1.141E16 15.23 <.0001 Error 170 1.273E17 7.49E14 Corrected Total 173 1.609E17 Root MSE 27367486.2 R‐Square 0.21184 Dependent Mean 30597724.8 Adj R‐Sq 0.19793 Coeff Var 89.44288 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 14892866 10463210 1.42 0.1565 Intercept SBBI 1 ‐359913 164848.1 ‐2.18 0.0304 SBBI JG 1 0.070804 0.034203 2.07 0.0400 JG JBPR 1 1403134 316914.8 4.43 <.0001 JBPR
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3. Persamaan Kredit Usaha Kecil untuk Modal Kerja dari Bank Umum: KMK
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model KMK Dependent Variable KMK Label KMK Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 5 9.822E17 1.964E17 35.99 <.0001 Error 168 9.171E17 5.459E15 Corrected Total 173 1.919E18 Root MSE 73883341.1 R‐Square 0.51715 Dependent Mean 166300776 Adj R‐Sq 0.50278 Coeff Var 44.42754 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 46048801 21665685 2.13 0.0350 Intercept SBPM 1 ‐333428 305291.0 ‐1.09 0.2763 SBPM JT 1 0.180607 0.045637 3.96 0.0001 JT JG 1 ‐0.27478 0.147727 ‐1.86 0.0646 JG KBRI 1 2.159456 0.356552 6.06 <.0001 KBRI JNB 1 ‐3279.21 1370.381 ‐2.39 0.0178 JNB
4. Persamaan Kredit Usaha Kecil untuk Investasi dan Konsumsi dari Bank
Umum: KIKK The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model KIKK Dependent Variable KIKK Label KIKK Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 4.12E16 1.373E16 7.83 <.0001 Error 170 2.981E17 1.753E15 Corrected Total 173 3.393E17 Root MSE 41873966.5 R‐Square 0.12144 Dependent Mean 38240379.3 Adj R‐Sq 0.10594 Coeff Var 109.50196 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 ‐1.025E7 15355851 ‐0.67 0.5054 Intercept SBPI 1 159540.1 367217.4 0.43 0.6645 SBPI JD 1 0.054484 0.014956 3.64 0.0004 JD JBRI 1 1498967 435335.1 3.44 0.0007 JBRI
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5. Persamaan Kredit Kupedes dari Bank Rakyat Indonesia-(BRI-Unit) : KBRI
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model KBRI Dependent Variable KBRI Label KBRI Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 5 2.22E17 4.439E16 507.20 <.0001 Error 168 1.47E16 8.752E13 Corrected Total 173 2.366E17 Root MSE 9355371.18 R‐Square 0.93787 Dependent Mean 75249350.1 Adj R‐Sq 0.93602 Coeff Var 12.43249 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 ‐1.523E8 6294598 ‐24.19 <.0001 Intercept SBPK 1 42825.05 38613.95 1.11 0.2690 SBPK RPN 1 20761.97 885.4871 23.45 <.0001 RPN RNU 1 84160.61 3724.288 22.60 <.0001 RNU JBRI 1 3319319 103263.0 32.14 <.0001 JBRI PDRB1 1 ‐0.00178 0.002054 ‐0.87 0.3870 PDRB1
6. Persamaan Kredit / Pinjaman dari Koperasi Simpan Pinjam: KKSP
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model KKSP Dependent Variable KKSP Label KKSP Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 6 1.871E11 3.118E10 45.18 <.0001 Error 167 1.153E11 6.9022E8 Corrected Total 173 2.981E11 Root MSE 26271.9478 R‐Square 0.61877 Dependent Mean 56463.0402 Adj R‐Sq 0.60508 Coeff Var 46.52946 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 727.3453 9382.122 0.08 0.9383 Intercept SBSM 1 81.31633 189.0656 0.43 0.6677 SBSM JKSP 1 ‐95.9778 29.65238 ‐3.24 0.0015 JKSP JG 1 0.000088 0.000034 2.56 0.0115 JG JAKO 1 0.290603 0.069020 4.21 <.0001 JAKO AKO 1 1.064676 0.133988 7.95 <.0001 AKO JMK 1 ‐0.04724 0.250890 ‐0.19 0.8509 JMK
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7. Persamaan Jumlah Giro Masyarakat di Bank Umum: JG
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model JG Dependent Variable JG Label JG Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 5.948E17 1.983E17 64.98 <.0001 Error 170 5.187E17 3.051E15 Corrected Total 173 9.764E17 Root MSE 55239820.5 R‐Square 0.53416 Dependent Mean 79538080.2 Adj R‐Sq 0.52594 Coeff Var 69.45078 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 ‐4.755E7 15900991 ‐2.99 0.0032 Intercept PDRB2 1 0.038752 0.013154 2.95 0.0037 PDRB2 PDRB3 1 0.049219 0.033373 1.47 0.1421 PDRB3 PDRB4 1 0.233245 0.059647 3.91 0.0001 PDRB4
8. Persamaan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto sektor Pertanian: PDRB1
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PDRB1 Dependent Variable PDRB1 Label PDRB1 Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 1.492E19 3.731E18 32.56 <.0001 Error 169 1.936E19 1.146E17 Corrected Total 173 3.421E19 Root MSE 338499878 R‐Square 0.43524 Dependent Mean 905752818 Adj R‐Sq 0.42188 Coeff Var 37.37221 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 ‐2.206E8 1.0679E8 ‐2.07 0.0404 Intercept KBPR 1 0.494009 0.608568 0.81 0.4181 KBPR KKSP 1 ‐343.948 848.7044 ‐0.41 0.6858 KKSP JP 1 133.7567 238.3742 0.56 0.5755 JP JAK 1 1934.171 559.3290 3.46 0.0007 JAK
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9. Persamaan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto sektor Industri: PDRB2 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PDRB2 Dependent Variable PDRB2 Label PDRB2 Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 2.024E19 6.745E18 6.09 0.0006 Error 170 1.884E20 1.108E18 Corrected Total 173 1.936E20 Root MSE 1052742248 R‐Square 0.09699 Dependent Mean 768234630 Adj R‐Sq 0.08105 Coeff Var 137.03395 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 9.7839E8 3.2421E8 3.02 0.0029 Intercept KKSP 1 9485.553 2372.867 4.00 <.0001 KKSP JP 1 ‐433.846 712.5190 ‐0.61 0.5434 JP JAK 1 ‐615.925 1688.620 ‐0.36 0.7158 JAK
10. Persamaan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto sektor Perdagangan: PDRB3 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PDRB3 Dependent Variable PDRB3 Label PDRB3 Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 3.562E18 1.187E18 5.14 0.0020 Error 170 3.927E19 2.31E17 Corrected Total 173 3.748E19 Root MSE 480637146 R‐Square 0.08316 Dependent Mean 597804917 Adj R‐Sq 0.06698 Coeff Var 80.40033 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 2.4149E8 1.4743E8 1.64 0.1033 Intercept KUK 1 1.602115 0.510168 3.14 0.0020 KUK JP 1 ‐173.847 325.3113 ‐0.53 0.5938 JP JAK 1 403.1822 779.1480 0.52 0.6055 JAK
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11. Persamaan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto sektor Jasa: PDRB4 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PDRB4 Dependent Variable PDRB4 Label PDRB4 Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 5.557E17 1.852E17 23.88 <.0001 Error 170 1.319E18 7.756E15 Corrected Total 173 2.073E18 Root MSE 88067982.0 R‐Square 0.29649 Dependent Mean 291074845 Adj R‐Sq 0.28407 Coeff Var 30.25613 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 1.1427E8 25018509 4.57 <.0001 Intercept KBPR 1 0.531931 0.157265 3.38 0.0009 KBPR KUK 1 0.314397 0.105223 2.99 0.0032 KUK JP 1 72.24406 27.30041 2.65 0.0089 JP